Stormrake - Insights

Your Wish Has Been Granted

Thu, 02 Jul 2026 10:53:43 +1000

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Some may question why we are talking about greed when the market sits in a state of extreme fear. But this is exactly when it matters most. Back in February, we discussed the hidden greed of bear markets, the kind that surfaces when we are deep in a drawdown and price is sitting at generational buying opportunities.

Cast your mind back to 2022. Bitcoin traded around $20k for months. Smart money was buying. Yes, price fell another 30% to $15k, but even that was not low enough for some. They held out for $12k, a level that never came. Many of those people either stayed sidelined for good or were forced to buy higher once the move away began. The ones who did buy through that zone are the ones now sitting on generational returns.

As we have been covering in our Morning Notes lately, Bitcoin has entered a period of accumulation, a window where risk to reward is heavily skewed in favour of those with conviction. This is where the real returns get made.

Bitcoin at $60k or below is 50% off its all-time high. This is smart money accumulation territory. The difference between buying now and waiting for $50k is marginal, and it is simply not worth the risk of missing this level altogether if it never comes.

Rewind just nine months, to when Bitcoin was trading at $120k. If you had asked anyone looking to buy, “would you like to get Bitcoin at $60k?”, the answer was obvious. It was the same wish we heard from clients constantly: “I wish I had bought when Bitcoin was at $50k... $70k... $90k, pick a number.” That wish has now been granted. The opportunity is here. The only question left is whether you follow through.

One more thing worth noting: if you bought at the top around $120k, you are underwater, and that is fine, especially with a long term view. This is a prime opportunity to heavily dollar cost average. With just half the capital you originally deployed at the highs, you can bring your average entry price all the way down to the midpoint, from $120k to $90k. Deploy more, and that average keeps improving from there.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,043)

As expected, the key zone at $4,000 continues to provide support for PAXG as it has thwarted another move from the bears to attempt to push it lower. As identified previously, this could be a zone to set up a base for a potential reversal.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin bounced nearly 2.5% yesterday and was up nearly 5% intraday, but the bears quickly reminded everyone who was in charge with a sharp rejection and stopped any sustained move above the key level of $60.1k paired with the 200 moving averages.

This rejection by the bears has strengthened their control as they look to set yet another lower low to end the week.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

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Rake Review: June 2026

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 17:53:59 +1000

When the Noise Became the Signal

June 2026 did not whisper. The world's biggest IPO sucked billions out of risk assets, Michael Saylor broke his four-year vow and sold Bitcoin for the first time, a new Fed Chair signalled rates may go higher before they go lower, and Bitcoin posted its worst monthly performance since the Luna/Terra collapse of 2022. For once, the noise and the signal were pointing in exactly the same direction.

The Biggest IPO Just Happened and Bitcoin Paid for It

Most people outside of finance have heard of SpaceX. Elon Musk's rocket company, responsible for sending astronauts to the International Space Station and building the Starlink satellite internet network, has for years been one of the most talked about private companies in the world. In June, it stopped being private. On June 12, SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker SPCX, raising $75 billion in what became the largest stock market debut in history. For context, the previous record was held by Saudi Aramco, which raised around $25 billion when it went public in 2019. SpaceX more than tripled it.

The excitement was enormous. Investor orders to buy shares exceeded $250 billion, roughly four times the amount SpaceX was actually selling, meaning the vast majority of people who tried to get in at the IPO price were turned away. The stock gained 19% on its first day and briefly pushed SpaceX's total value past $2 trillion. So what does any of this have to do with Bitcoin?

When a company raises $75 billion from investors, that money has to come from somewhere. Investors, both everyday people and large institutions, had to sell other things they owned to free up cash to buy SpaceX shares. And one of the assets people sold to raise that cash was Bitcoin. SpaceX effectively became a liquidity black hole, drawing risk capital that would otherwise have stayed in digital assets. This is called capital rotation, and it is one of the main reasons Bitcoin fell so heavily through June.

There is a twist worth knowing about. SpaceX's public filing revealed the company holds 18,712 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, worth approximately $1.29 billion. That makes SpaceX one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin in the world. The company that caused so much selling pressure in Bitcoin actually owns a significant amount of it. Every person who bought a SpaceX share in June now has indirect Bitcoin exposure, whether they realise it or not. And as SpaceX gets added to major stock market indices, thousands of index funds and pension funds that buy the stock will also be indirectly buying Bitcoin through SpaceX's treasury.

The deeper issue for Bitcoin this month was not just the money leaving, it was the attention leaving. SpaceX offered investors rockets, global internet, and artificial intelligence all in one stock. In a market where people chase whatever is exciting, Bitcoin simply cannot match the fresh story around SpaceX. For the better part of two years, Bitcoin was the most exciting trade in markets. That crown has been passed, at least for now, to AI stocks and space companies. SpaceX itself pulled back sharply after its debut, falling from an intraday high of $225 to around $153 by the end of the month, but by then the damage to Bitcoin sentiment had already been done.

The longer term picture is more positive, and there is a concrete reason for that. Capital rotation works in both directions. The same investors who sold Bitcoin to buy SpaceX shares will eventually look for the next opportunity, and Bitcoin, sitting at multi-month lows and testing its most historically significant long term support level, will be difficult to ignore. The IPO frenzy that hurt Bitcoin in June is temporary. The 18,712 Bitcoin now sitting on SpaceX's balance sheet, quietly embedded inside thousands of index funds and pension portfolios around the world, is permanent.

The Saylor Thesis Meets Gravity

If you have spent any time following Bitcoin over the past few years, you will have heard of Michael Saylor. He is the co-founder and executive chairman of a company called Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, and he has built one of the most recognisable positions in crypto by doing one thing relentlessly: buying Bitcoin with every dollar he can get his hands on.

Strategy does not mine Bitcoin. It does not run an exchange. Its entire identity, since 2020, has been to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible and hold it forever. To fund those purchases, the company has raised billions of dollars by issuing shares and debt products to investors. The pitch has always been simple: Bitcoin goes up over time, and owning a lot of it, acquired with borrowed and raised capital, produces extraordinary returns.

June tested that pitch.

On June 1, Strategy revealed it had sold 32 Bitcoin for approximately $2.5 million. It was the first time the company had sold any Bitcoin in four years. Now, 32 Bitcoin is not a lot. Strategy still held 843,706 coins after the sale, making it a fraction of a percent of their total position. But Saylor had said publicly, many times, that he would never sell. The moment he did, even a tiny amount, people started asking questions.

The reason for the sale was to pay a dividend to investors in one of Strategy's financial products, called STRC. This is essentially a type of investment that Strategy sells to raise cash, promising regular dividend payments in return. As Strategy has taken on more of these obligations, the bills have grown. Annual dividend payments have risen from around $300 million at the start of 2026 to $1.2 billion today, while the company's cash reserves have fallen 38% over the same period.

At the same time, Bitcoin's price has dropped well below what Strategy paid for most of its coins. The average price Strategy paid across its entire Bitcoin holding is around $75,500 per coin. With Bitcoin trading in the low $60,000s through much of June, the company is sitting on an unrealised loss of approximately $10.6 billion. That does not mean Strategy is in immediate trouble, unrealised losses are paper losses until you sell, but it does mean the financial pressure is real and growing.

Saylor's public response was to post on X: "Volatility tests every capital structure. Strategy remains focused on Bitcoin, disciplined capital allocation, credit quality, and long term value creation." Characteristically unfazed. His supporters point out that Strategy survived a worse situation in 2022, when Bitcoin fell below $16,000, and never had to sell. His critics point out that the company's obligations are significantly larger today than they were back then.

The honest answer is that nobody knows exactly how this plays out. If Bitcoin recovers strongly in the second half of 2026, Strategy's balance sheet improves quickly and the concerns fade. If Bitcoin stays flat or falls further, the pressure to sell coins to meet obligations becomes harder to ignore, and a forced sale from the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder would create significant additional selling in the market.

There is one further development worth watching. Saylor has long positioned Strategy as a Bitcoin-only vehicle, but the financial pressure building on the balance sheet may force a rethink of that mandate. Speculation is growing that Strategy could begin diversifying its treasury into other hard assets, with gold the most likely candidate. If that happens, it would represent a significant shift in the Strategy story, and a tacit acknowledgement that a single-asset treasury model carries more risk than the narrative has historically admitted.

What June made clear is that the easy part of the Saylor trade is behind us. The thesis is not broken. Bitcoin has recovered from worse, and Strategy has survived deeper drawdowns than this one. But the risks are now visible in a way they were not twelve months ago, and visible risks have a habit of demanding attention before they resolve. The second half of 2026 will go a long way toward determining whether June was the moment the thesis was tested, or the moment it began to crack.

Price Performance: Breaking Down the Worst Month Since 2022

June broke what had been building for the majority of the year the classic bear market pattern known as the bear flag. This was the worst month for Bitcoin since June 2022, with Bitcoin losing nearly 19% from the open of the month to the close.

The month kicked off with a confirmed break of the bear flag, which triggered the next leg lower and the sustained bearish price action we saw throughout June. A major driver of sentiment this month was Michael Saylor and Strategy. When Strategy disclosed it had sold 32 Bitcoin the first sale in four years it shattered the narrative that Saylor was an unconditional, never sell accumulator. The market had priced Strategy as a permanent demand floor. The moment that assumption broke, confidence cracked with it, and the selling accelerated.

With the bears clearly in control, the bear flag pattern targets the mid to low $50,000 region as the next area of interest.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/4e3Du4wC/

Despite June historically being one of Bitcoin's stronger months averaging an 8.24% return across nine green Junes in the last 16 years this year told a very different story, and one with a familiar feel.

June 2022 was also Bitcoin's worst month of that year, occurring in the aftermath of the Luna Terra collapse in May 2022, which was the first major blow of the previous bear market. This June drew extreme parallels to that period. The Luna collapse came seven months after Bitcoin's prior all time high. The current June drawdown has come eight months after the October 2025 all time high of $128,198. When the prior June collapse occurred, the market was closer to the end of the bear market than the beginning and that is what we are anticipating to be the case now.

We go much deeper into the outlook for the next few months in the Stormrake Q3 2026 Outlook, which you can find in the section below.

In the News

Stormrake Quarter 3 Outlook: The Final Washout

We have just released our Stormrake Quarter 3 2026 Outlook, titled 'The Final Washout'. The report covers the next three months of Bitcoin price action, where we think Bitcoin is headed, what is likely to drive it, and where we believe we currently sit in the broader market cycle. If you have been following Bitcoin through what has been a brutal June and want to understand what comes next, this is the place to start. You can find the full report in the section here. It is a must read for those looking to accumulate Bitcoin at a discount…

Read the Full Outlook Here

The US Iran War Is Winding Down And Oil Is Feeling It

Earlier this year, US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes. Brent crude surged from around $72 per barrel at the outset of the conflict to above $118 by late April, pushing inflation higher and forcing central banks to shelve any near term plans to cut interest rates. June brought meaningful relief. On June 18, the US and Iran signed an interim peace agreement, and oil prices fell sharply, with Brent dropping back toward $77 per barrel. By June 24, WTI had fallen below $70 per barrel for the first time since the war began. The ceasefire remains fragile and a permanent deal is far from done, but the direction of travel is positive. For Bitcoin, falling oil means falling inflation, which means the path to interest rate cuts reopens and cheaper money has historically been one of the most reliable tailwinds Bitcoin has ever had.

The New Fed Chair Just Made His First Call and It Was Not What Trump Wanted

Trump replaced Jerome Powell with Kevin Warsh in May 2026, widely expecting a more rate cut friendly Fed. On June 17, Warsh chaired his first meeting and voted unanimously to hold rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. The bigger story was what came alongside it. Nine of the 18 voting members now support a rate hike before the end of 2026, a sharp reversal from March, when not a single policymaker had pencilled one in. Warsh also scrapped the Fed's longstanding practice of forward guidance, removing any hint of where rates are heading next. Stocks fell immediately after the statement dropped. For Bitcoin, the message is simple: rate cuts historically one of the strongest tailwinds for crypto have been pushed even further down the road.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in June 2026:

Bitcoin lost 19% in June.
Ethereum fell by 21% in June.
Hyperliquid created a new all time high at $76.70 but since retraced 20%.
PAX Gold lost 12% in June.
The total crypto market cap fell by 17%.

Video of the month

Sovereignty Brief Ep 1 -Who's holding your keys?

Bisher Khudeira and Michael Milmeister

Education: The 200 Week Moving Average

If you have been following Bitcoin through June, you will have seen a lot of commentary about something called the 200 week moving average. It has been mentioned constantly, and for good reason, Bitcoin spent much of this month right on top of it. So what is it, and why does everyone care so much?

Let's start simple. A moving average is just the average price of something over a set period of time. If you wanted to know Bitcoin's average price over the last ten days, you would add up the closing price from each of those days and divide by ten. That gives you a number, the average. Do the same calculation every day, updating it as new prices come in, and you get a line on a chart that smooths out the daily ups and downs and shows you the general direction things are heading.

The 200 week moving average does exactly that, but instead of using daily prices, it uses weekly prices, and instead of ten periods, it uses 200. That means it is calculating the average price of Bitcoin across the last 200 weeks, which works out to nearly four years of data in a single number.

Because it covers so much history, the line moves very slowly. It does not react to Bitcoin having a bad day, or even a bad month. It only really shifts when Bitcoin has been going in a particular direction for a long time. That makes it one of the most reliable tools for understanding where Bitcoin sits in its long term cycle, as opposed to its short term noise.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/b3xm73ie/

On June 4, Bitcoin tagged this line for the first time in this current cycle, with the moving average sitting near $62,600. That is why June felt significant to a lot of people watching the market. It was not just another bad month, it was Bitcoin arriving at the level that has historically signalled a floor.

The important thing to understand is that the 200 week moving average is not a guarantee. It is a pattern, not a rule. After breaching the line in June 2022, Bitcoin spent roughly 16 months below it before recovering. Touching it does not automatically mean the bottom is in. What it does mean is that Bitcoin has entered the kind of territory where, historically, patient long term buyers have been rewarded.

The cleanest signal to watch for is a weekly candle closing back above the line after touching it. That reclaim, price dipping to the average and then recovering above it, is what has marked the start of the next recovery in previous cycles.

For anyone who is relatively new to Bitcoin and feeling anxious watching the price sit in the high $50,000s and low $60,000s, the 200 week moving average is the context that matters most right now. It is not a reason to panic. If anything, it is the level where the most experienced long term holders in the market tend to get interested.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The Market Timing Paradox

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 17:26:36 +1000

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In the arena of digital asset allocation, market participants frequently fall victim to a classic cognitive trap: the pursuit of perfect execution at the expense of macro positioning. This phenomenon usually manifests as investors sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a minor pullback to optimise their entry price while ignoring the broader secular trajectory.

When analysing an asset with an asymmetric return profile, this hyper focus on short term price fluctuations represents a fundamental misunderstanding of risk management.

The Three Possible Outcomes

To understand the mathematical inefficiency of waiting for lower prices during a secular expansion, we can look at three distinct outcomes for an investor looking to secure a full unit allocation, assuming a current spot price of $60,000 (give or take) and a conservative long term target of $400,000 within a decade from now.

The Optimal Timing Outcome:
The investor correctly forecasts a local retracement, and the price drops to $45,000. Capital is successfully deployed at the absolute bottom. When the asset eventually achieves its ten year macro target of $400,000, the total return equates to $355,000. In this best case scenario, perfect market timing saved the allocator exactly $15,000.
The Sidelined Capital Outcome:
The anticipated retracement fails to materialise. The market maintains its upward trajectory, leaving the hesitant investor with zero allocation. Regardless of how high the price climbs over the next ten years, the realised return remains exactly zero. The opportunity cost is the entire macro expansion.
The Pragmatic Allocation Outcome:
The investor rejects the timing game and deploys capital at the current market price of $60,000. When the asset reaches $400,000, the total return is $340,000. By paying a temporary market premium, the investor has guaranteed exposure to the macro trend.

Asymmetry of Choice

When these scenarios are compared side by side, the structural flaw of waiting on the sidelines becomes obvious.

In the absolute best case scenario, successful market timing saves an investor a marginal $15,000. In the worst case scenario, the pursuit of that minor saving costs the investor an entire lifetime allocation.

The math demonstrates that the downside of being wrong vastly outweighs the upside of being right. Trying to time a highly volatile asset class to save a small fraction of capital introduces a catastrophic risk: missing the generation defining move entirely.

Execution and Forward Positioning

Securing direct spot property is an exercise in managing probability rather than predicting exact local coordinate bottoms. For allocators focused on multi year wealth preservation, the priority must always be securing unencumbered exposure to absolute scarcity rather than risking complete exclusion for a minimal discount.

The professional trading desk at Stormrake remains fully prepared to assist with large scale spot execution models, allowing market participants to establish strategic positions under true market conditions without the friction of the timing paradox.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,004)

With a marginal lower low at $3,941 overnight, PAXG’s risk versus reward at this Key Support Zone is starting to favour the bulls. Any move above $4,100 would see the beginning of a structural and meaningful relief rally, as the asset has now reached a -30% correction from the all time highs in early February - typically this is where you’d expect to see exhaustion from retail sellers in such asset classes.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has seen increased selling momentum overnight on the smaller 1 hour timeframe, as we pushed back into the low $58,000 range. Whilst we’re still holding above the absolute low for this bear market cycle at $58,115 from last week, if sellers push through this current localised consolidation range; expect to see a quick spill over into generational opportunity that only comes once every 4 years…but remember; risk to reward has already begun to favour bulls here at these levels, don’t get too greedy waiting to save a penny at the cost of a whole dollar, folks!

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Onchain Series Part IV: Reserve Risk: The Conviction of Long-Term Holders

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 15:45:08 +1000

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Reserve Risk is the metric that ties this series together. Where the previous three looked at valuation, sentiment and miner behaviour, Reserve Risk looks at the people who matter most in a bear market: the long-term holders who have chosen not to sell.

The concept behind it is straightforward. When Bitcoin’s price is high and long-term holders are still refusing to sell, the opportunity cost of holding is significant. That confidence relative to price creates high Reserve Risk, and historically that has corresponded to cycle tops. When price is low and long-term holders continue to hold through the pain, that same confidence exists but at a fraction of the price. The risk of entering the market at that point is low relative to the potential reward. That is low Reserve Risk, and it is where the most asymmetric returns in Bitcoin’s history have been captured.

Reading the chart is simple. When Reserve Risk enters the upper red band, the risk of holding or buying is historically high and the market has tended to be near a major top. When it drops to the bottom of the lower green band, the inverse is true: long-term holders are accumulating under stress, and the market has historically been near a major bottom.

The chart makes this clear. Reserve Risk is currently sitting at the bottom of the green zone, at levels that have only been reached a handful of times across Bitcoin’s entire history. Each prior instance, without exception, has been followed by a significant recovery in price.

That does not mean the bottom is confirmed. As we have said throughout this series, there is still a reasonable probability of further downside before this cycle completes its final leg. But the signal Reserve Risk is sending is unambiguous: long-term holders are not panicking. They are holding. And they are doing so at a price level where the risk of being in the market is historically low.

This is the fourth metric in this series, and the fourth one telling the same story. The MVRV Z-Score showed the market is statistically undervalued. NUPL showed sentiment is deteriorating into fear. The Puell Multiple showed miners are under stress. Reserve Risk shows long-term holders are holding firm regardless. Four independent lenses, one consistent conclusion: we are in the accumulation zone. The bottom may not be in, but we are close enough that waiting on the sidelines carries its own risk.

The series is complete. The data has spoken.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,017)

PAXG lost over 1% in the last 24 hours and is now beginning the retest of the key zone. We expect buying and support at this level, and if there is a place for the trend to reverse, it is here.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

The bulls are showing they are up for the fight, reclaiming the key level at $60,100. This level is now critical in determining the next move: either another attempt at a rally or further downside continuation.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Onchain Series Part III: The Puell Multiple; What Miners Are Telling Us

Mon, 29 Jun 2026 13:01:32 +1000

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So far in this series we have looked at valuation through the MVRV Z-Score and market sentiment through NUPL. Today we turn to miner behaviour, and specifically a metric called the Puell Multiple.

To understand why miners matter, it helps to understand their position in the market. Miners are often referred to as compulsory sellers. Unlike most Bitcoin holders who can choose when to sell, miners operate with fixed costs: energy, hardware, staff. Those bills do not stop when the price drops. As a result, miners must sell a portion of their Bitcoin consistently to cover expenses, which means their revenue relative to historical norms has a direct influence on market dynamics.

The Puell Multiple measures this by dividing the daily USD value of newly issued Bitcoin by the 365-day moving average of that same figure. The result is a ratio that tells you whether miners are currently generating revenue that is unusually high or unusually low relative to the past year.

When the multiple is high, miner revenue is elevated well above the annual average. Historically that has coincided with Bitcoin price peaks, the periods where the market is overheated and supply pressure from miners is at its greatest. When the multiple is deep in the green zone, miner revenue has collapsed relative to the historical norm. Miners are operating under severe stress, many are running at a loss, and the weakest are being forced to shut down entirely. That environment has, in every prior cycle, marked the conditions from which Bitcoin has launched its next major recovery.

Where does the Puell Multiple sit today?

The indicator is in or approaching the green zone, consistent with the kind of miner stress that has historically preceded cycle bottoms. This is not a coincidence. When miners capitulate, forced selling intensifies temporarily before the weakest operations drop off and supply pressure eases. What follows that clearing process has historically been a significant repricing to the upside.

Three metrics in now and the picture they are painting together is consistent. Valuation is stretched to the downside, sentiment is deteriorating, and miners are under pressure. These are not the conditions of a healthy bull market. They are the conditions of a market approaching its floor. The final piece of this series will look at long-term holder behaviour through Reserve Risk, which will complete the case.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,061)

PAXG is hovering just above the key zone. When markets resume this week we can expect the bears to retest that level and look to push below it.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin was relatively flat over the weekend, battling the key level at $60,100 before the bears ultimately came out on top. Momentum has shifted back to the downside and Bitcoin now looks to create a new lower low, with the key support at $57,700 the likely target this week.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Onchain Series Part II: NUPL: Reading the Emotions of the Market

Fri, 26 Jun 2026 15:31:16 +1000

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This is a metric we have not covered before in the Morning Note, so let us start from the ground up.

NUPL stands for Net Unrealised Profit/Loss. Like the MVRV Z-Score we covered last time, it is built on Market Value and Realised Value. Subtracting Realised Value from Market Value gives you the total unrealised profit or loss held across the entire market. Divide that by market cap and you have NUPL, a normalised ratio that can be compared consistently across Bitcoin’s history regardless of price level.

What makes it particularly useful is what it represents in human terms. It is a direct reading of the emotional state of the market.

When the ratio is high, the average holder is sitting on substantial paper profit, which has historically corresponded to the greed and overconfidence that precedes major tops. When it turns negative, the average holder is underwater, and that has historically corresponded to the fear and capitulation that precedes major recoveries.

The chart colour-codes these zones to reflect the dominant sentiment at each level: from euphoria and greed at the top end, through optimism and hope in the middle, down into anxiety, fear and capitulation at the bottom. Each of those zones has historically mapped closely to specific stages of the Bitcoin market cycle.

Where does NUPL sit today?

The indicator is currently in the fear zone and trending towards capitulation. Historically every period spent within these lower bands, whether fear or full capitulation, has represented a strong accumulation window. There may be further downside ahead, and if capitulation is reached it will likely present an even deeper opportunity, but waiting for that moment is not a strategy. The window is open now, and those who act within it rather than wait for a signal that may never feel comfortable have consistently been the ones best positioned for the recovery.

What this does tell us is that we are entering the part of the cycle where the emotional environment begins to work in the disciplined investor’s favour. The majority of holders are at or below their entry price, sentiment is deteriorating and conviction is being tested. There is a real possibility of additional downside and that should not be dismissed. But in every prior cycle, this is the zone where the most durable long-term positions were built.

The MVRV Z-Score told us the market is statistically undervalued relative to its own history. NUPL tells us why that tends to be the case at these moments: because sentiment has deteriorated to a point where most participants are either holding at a loss or have already sold. The people still selling now are not selling because the fundamentals are bad. They are selling because the feeling is bad. And that distinction is everything.

Two metrics in, and they are telling the same story. We are closer to the end than the beginning.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,023)

PAXG has retraced back to the key zone at $4,000 as expected. We anticipate this level to provide support and further bounces before the next move is decided.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has made another lower low, losing nearly 5% in a single hour overnight. The bears continue to flex their muscles, pushing BTC lower at every opportunity. The key $60,000 level has now flipped to resistance as Bitcoin looks to move lower.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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SpaceX’s Return to Orbit after a $1 Trillion Dollar Wipeout

Fri, 26 Jun 2026 15:19:13 +1000

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The financial markets have just completed a historical masterclass in the structural dangers of speculative equity bubbles. On 12 June 2026, SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering in market history, raising $75 billion at $135 per share to a chorus of near-universal retail euphoria. Driven by intense retail momentum, the stock soared to an all-time high of $225.64 by 16 June, briefly vaulting the company past multi-trillion-dollar legacy conglomerates to become the world’s fifth most valuable entity.

Yet, the unwinding of this speculative fervour was as dramatic as its ascent. By 23 June 2026, a rapid succession of corporate and structural shocks triggered a violent 16.4% single-day capitulation, bringing the three-day aggregate loss to nearly $1 trillion in erased market value. With the stock collapsing back to its first-day opening price of $150, market participants who accumulated at the absolute peak were left holding painful losses of approximately 33% in less than a week.

Bitcoin instead of following SpaceX’s return to orbit, has modestly separated from Elon’s trajectory and used its own launch boosters, allowing the apex asset to maintain firm support in the $60,000 range in the face of broader equity uncertainties resurfacing, including a Micron earnings scare overnight.

The Hidden Vulnerabilities of Corporate Balance Sheet Proxies

For macroeconomic allocators, this corporate wipeout provides a clear analytical lens through which to evaluate a common mistake: attempting to secure exposure to digital asset scarcity indirectly through corporate equity proxies. Many investors buy equity in technology companies simply because those corporations maintain Bitcoin on their balance sheets. The SpaceX episode demonstrates that this proxy exposure is fundamentally flawed.

When purchasing corporate shares instead of direct spot property, an investor is completely exposed to centralised human decision-making and underlying operational liabilities. The SpaceX cash burn rate highlights these systemic corporate risks. The company reported a massive net loss of $4.9 billion for the full year of 2025. While the Starlink satellite infrastructure division generated a steady $4.4 billion operating profit, the highly speculative xAI division consumed those inflows entirely, burning through $6.36 billion in operating losses against a massive $12.7 billion in capital expenditure. By Q1 2026, consolidated net losses accelerated to $4.28 billion.

Furthermore, equity holders are perpetually vulnerable to board-level decisions, such as the sudden announcement of a dilutive $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor immediately following the public listing. This corporate action, combined with a subsequent $20 billion bond offering, signalled clear underlying structural stress. Equity proxies also remain subject to massive supply shocks, such as the impending December 2026 lock-up expiry which will release 96% of currently locked shares onto the open market.

The Cryptographic Alternative: Real Scarcity

Bitcoin’s decentralised architecture is completely immune to these corporate vulnerabilities. The protocol has no centralised board of directors to execute dilutive acquisitions, no capital expenditure overheads to create multi-billion-dollar operating losses, and no corporate debt facilities to service. Its immutable supply cap of 21 million units cannot be expanded by legislative or corporate decree.

This structural integrity is precisely why Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset in recorded economic history. Over a full ten-year macro cycle, Bitcoin achieved cumulative gains exceeding 26,900%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 193% and gold’s 125% by orders of magnitude. On an annualised basis, Bitcoin has returned roughly 230%. Capturing this performance requires deep patience across multi-year cycles. Cyclical corrections frequently experience temporary drawdowns within the 50% - 70% range or greater, yet the underlying market structure has always resolved into higher ranges of secular support.

True wealth preservation requires eliminating unnecessary counterparty risk. Direct ownership of unencumbered spot property offers a mathematical escape hatch from legacy corporate dilution. Connect with a Stormrake broker today to discuss how Bitcoin is “T-minus not long to go now” before its launch into the stratosphere begins, and never looks back.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($3,995)

BOOM - there it is folks! PAXG landing perfectly into our Key Support Zone, with a low of $3,957 last night, and currently holding neatly above the top of the channel. This area should act as major trend support for PAXG as deep liquidity resides here. We can expect to see some form of bounce from these levels sooner rather than later.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has quickly swept the lows of our local support zone and once again taken out over-leveraged buyers that had their stop losses around $59,000, with an absolute low of $59,102.70 overnight. Since then, we’re already back up 3.30%. If bulls can keep up momentum here and gain local trend resistance; firstly the $63,861 level, then it might very well be another case of “the early bird gets the worm…”

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Europe's 2027 Cash Ban and the Flight to Sovereign Property

Wed, 24 Jun 2026 09:58:31 +1000

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The European Union has officially confirmed a sweeping escalation in financial surveillance. From 10 July 2027, cash payments exceeding €10,000 will be completely prohibited across the entire bloc under Regulation (EU) 2024/1624, the newly formalised Anti Money Laundering Regulation. Simultaneously, crypto asset service providers will be legally required to execute comprehensive identity verification for transactions as low as €1,000, while privacy assets face an outright ban from regulated platforms.

While peer to peer transfers between self custody wallets remain technically exempt under the current text, the structural trajectory is clear. Once a centralised transaction monitoring architecture is constructed, expanding its scope to cover private wallets requires nothing more than a minor legislative amendment. Governments do not build surveillance frameworks and choose not to use them.

The Return to Satoshi’s First Principles

This intensifying regulatory push highlights exactly why Satoshi Nakamoto designed a peer to peer electronic cash system in 2008. The foundational blueprint was never merely an aesthetic attempt to make payment networks more efficient, but a direct response to a legacy system built on political intervention and centralised gatekeepers.

Embedding the banking bailout headline into the genesis block sent a clear message that true wealth must exist outside institutional control. By removing the intermediary, you eliminate the single point of failure that states can compel, freeze, or block. The financial sovereignty enabled by decentralised networks is not an auxiliary feature; it is the entire point of the asset class.

Evaluating Long Term Value Under Regulatory Lockdown

For active market participants, this legislative tightening reinforces the massive divergence between paper proxies and unencumbered spot property. As capital controls harden, paper proxy traps and heavily regulated synthetic financial options will inevitably absorb the brunt of balance sheet whitelisting and compliance tracking.

With Bitcoin currently establishing firm local support around $60,000, the underlying macro thesis is quietly accelerating. As the old adage goes:

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.”

While fiat prices remain highly fluid across trading venues, the intrinsic value of sovereign digital property lies in its absolute immunity from centralised custody and state driven debasement.

Desk Execution and Capital Positioning

The window to accumulate pure spot property with minimal friction is shrinking. The implementation timeline leaves individuals with a limited window to address capital structures before the regulatory perimeter locks down. Shifting macro conditions demand a disciplined approach to risk. Formulating a strategic approach with the long term regulatory picture in mind is a vital prerequisite before on ramps narrow. The professional trading desk at Stormrake remains fully equipped to assist with secure spot property execution models, allowing for seamless trade settlement under true market conditions.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,092)

As Bears continue selling momentum, placing PAXG back at $4,092 and down 2.23% for the day, it’s clear the downtrend has continued. Since the Moving Average 20 mentioned last week has acted as steadfast resistance, we’re likely to take out the recent lows and sweep our targeted Key Support Zone sooner rather than later.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Despite yesterday’s move up to $65K, Bitcoin has given way to further short-term profit taking and selling, placing price back down in the mid $62,000 range. Whilst there was some reprieve from yesterday’s selling, and seeing some sideways price-action overnight - the trend remains down intra-day as momentum still favours the bears for now.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Onchain Series Part I: The MVRV Z-Score; Where Are We in the Cycle?

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 14:02:25 +1000

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We have spoken about MVRV in previous articles, but today we are taking a deeper look, specifically through the lens of the Z-Score, which is where the real analytical power lives.

For those less familiar, MVRV stands for Market Value to Realised Value. Market Value is straightforward: the current Bitcoin price multiplied by the circulating supply, essentially the market cap. Realised Value is more nuanced. Rather than using today’s price, it takes the price at which each Bitcoin last moved on-chain (the last time it was sent between wallets), averages those figures across the entire supply, and multiplies by total coins. The result is a measure that strips away short-term sentiment and gives you a cleaner picture of what the market has actually paid for its Bitcoin: the aggregate cost basis.

The ratio between these two figures is the MVRV ratio. When market value is significantly above realised value, participants are sitting on heavy unrealised profit, which historically signals overheating. When market value falls below realised value, the market is trading at a discount to its own cost basis.

The Z-Score takes this one step further. It applies a standard deviation calculation to the spread between market value and realised value across Bitcoin’s entire history. This filters out the noise and isolates the statistical extremes, the moments when the divergence between what Bitcoin is worth and what people actually paid for it is genuinely unusual relative to all prior data. On the chart, when the Z-Score enters the upper red band, Bitcoin has historically been at or near a cycle top. Every major peak in 2013, 2017 and 2021 was flagged by this zone. When the Z-Score enters the lower green band, Bitcoin has been at or near a cycle bottom. Buying within that green zone across every prior cycle has produced some of the greatest returns in the asset’s history.

Where Are We Today?

The Z-Score is approaching the lower green accumulation zone, the same region that has preceded every meaningful bull run on record.

This does not mean the downside is over. It would be dishonest to suggest otherwise. There is a reasonable probability that further pain is ahead, that sentiment remains fragile, and that we will see more volatility before a structural reversal takes hold. The Z-Score can remain in the green zone for weeks or even months as bottoms are a process, not a moment.

But here is what the data is telling us clearly: we are in the zone of asymmetric returns. The risk/reward at these levels, by this measure, is more favourable than at any point since the last bear market lows. The most important variable in capturing those returns is not finding the exact price bottom; it almost never is. It is timing in the broadest sense, being in the market during the accumulation window rather than waiting for the confirmation that always comes too late. When you base decisions on where you are in the cycle rather than on day-to-day price action, you remove the emotional component that causes most investors to buy high and sell low. The data creates the discipline that price alone cannot.

This is the first in a series of onchain metrics we will be walking through over the coming notes. Individually, each one tells part of the story. Together, they are building a clear picture.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,185)

PAXG had a positive day yesterday to buck the five bearish day streak, but it remains on its path to $4,000, which we can expect to be reached this week.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin had an attempted move up from the key level of $63.8k, but the few hours of strong positive progress were quickly retraced as the bears took back control and wiped out the gains overnight. This has now sent BTC back to the key level, where sellers look to push it lower.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Architecture of the Fiat War Machine

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:46:53 +1000

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Geopolitics frequently dictates the short term emotional swings of risk assets, but the real structural mechanism of state conflict is always monetary. When nations commit to major military engagements overseas, the immense bills are rarely funded by immediate domestic tax revenues. Instead, central banks are structurally required to step in, initiating a cycle of un-backed credit creation, debt expansion, and systematic currency dilution.

In this environment of structural money printing, standard fiat reserve assets are intentionally debased to cover sovereign liabilities. For long term capital allocators, this perpetual expansion of the money supply highlights why direct ownership of unencumbered spot property operates as the ultimate escape hatch from state-driven inflation.

Capitalising the War Machine: Three Case Studies of Debt Expansion

To properly evaluate how overseas engagements dilute domestic purchasing power on a multi year delay, savvy market participants can review historical data. When a superpower issues trillions of dollars in fresh credit for global military operations, the economic distortions appear on a lag. Here is how three major overseas operations over the last few decades have directly reshaped the domestic monetary landscape of the United States:

1. The Gulf War (1990)

Total Financial Cost: The conflict required approximately $61 billion in direct resources. Although international partners subsidised over 80% of the baseline operational costs, the domestic credit strain contributed to a sharp economic recession.
Domestic CPI Projections: Five years after the conflict commenced in 1995, the domestic consumer price index registered at 2.8%. By the 10 year milestone in 2000, prolonged structural adjustments and global energy volatility pushed annual inflation up to 3.4%.

2. The War in Afghanistan (2001)

Total Financial Cost: According to comprehensive data evaluated by the Watson Institute Costs of War Project, the ultimate bill for the 20 year campaign reached an astounding $2.26 trillion.
Domestic CPI Projections: Five years post invasion in 2006, the consumer price index registered a hot 3.2%. Ten years later in 2011, despite the massive macro deflationary shock of the global financial crisis, aggressive central bank credit interventions and sustained war funding kept annual inflation firmly at 3.2%.

3. The Iraq War (2003)

Total Financial Cost: Direct combat operations and subsequent regional reorganisation projects quickly ballooned past $2 trillion in committed capital.
Domestic CPI Projections: Five years into the occupation in 2008, significant systemic market distortions and raw commodity pricing shocks drove domestic CPI to a peak of 3.8%. Ten years later in 2013, following a decade of intense credit expansion, inflation cooled to 1.5% as the credit excess was temporarily absorbed back onto the central bank balance sheet via prolonged quantitative easing programmes.

The historical trend confirms that the ultimate cost of geopolitical expansion is always born by the domestic currency holder. When a sovereign treasury prints trillions of un-backed dollars to execute overseas operations, it expands the base circulating money supply exponentially. This debasement pattern strips the purchasing power from traditional cash reserves, forcing smart money to rotate into assets that cannot be expanded by legislative decree.

This macro configuration underpins the entire technical and structural bull case for Bitcoin. Unlike fiat reserves that remain perpetually exposed to the political choices of state actors, the cryptographic ledger functions under an immutable supply cap. When central banks expand their balance sheets to underwrite sovereign debt, they structurally validate the flight into direct spot assets.

Securing pure spot property outside the legacy banking architecture remains a primary mechanism for preserving generational wealth from the long-term inflationary drag of currency debasement. Reach out to your dedicated Stormrake broker today to discuss direct execution models for digital asset allocations and ensure your market holdings are aligned with true spot market reality.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,155)

PAXG has continued it’s correction over the weekend and is now entering the potential pocket for a higher-low as mentioned on Friday. Bulls will need to come in hard and fast though with buying volume in order to stave off a further retracement into the $3,900 - $4,000 Key Support Zone.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin saw a rally over the weekend, pushing price back to the mid $64,000 range, however due to tensions between Iran and the US again this morning, with rumours of Friday’s peace deal already starting to look shaky from Trump’s lofty threats - we’re now back below the $63,861 local support level. Similar to PAXG, for a higher-low to come in at these levels, we need to see bulls reclaim momentum hard and fast, otherwise further discounts may be on the horizon.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.