Stormrake - Insights #90 Day tariff pause

The Rake Review: April

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 00:07:51 +1000

April Hints at Bitcoin’s True Potential

For the longest time, people have debated whether Bitcoin is a risk-on or risk-off asset. Is it a levered Nasdaq, or is it digital gold? What if I told you neither side is wrong — and that April, one of the wildest months in recent memory, proved Bitcoin is, in fact, both.

Foreshadowing Bitcoin’s Potential:

Bitcoin was created to be separate from traditional markets, institutions, and other centralised entities. Many liken it to gold, the original form of hard money — and for good reason. Bitcoin shares many properties with gold: both are scarce, inflation-proof, and serve as a store of value, making Bitcoin a new-age version of hard money — ‘Digital Gold’.

Throughout most of its lifespan, Bitcoin's price has moved independently from traditional stock markets, often following a four-year cycle aligned with the halving event. Looking back at the last 15 years, this cycle typically consists of three bullish years followed by one bear market year. This pattern has held true across the last three full cycles.

However, in recent years Bitcoin has gained institutional traction, and with that, a growing correlation to traditional assets — particularly risk-on markets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Many now refer to it as a levered version of the QQQ, or virtually another tech stock.

Over the last few years, we’ve seen Bitcoin react similarly to traditional markets during major global events — from the Covid pandemic to interest rate decisions and geopolitical shocks. Through the confusion that was April, Bitcoin acted as both. It rallied during a risk-on environment alongside the Nasdaq when the 90-day tariff pause was announced — Bitcoin rose 8%, and the Nasdaq jumped 13%. Then Easter ushered in a risk-off tone as the US 10-Year Note yield surged above 4.40%, and major equities like Nvidia and Amazon dropped 4.5% and 3.1% respectively. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continued its climb, and gold pressed on to new all-time highs.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/GhR3TInM/

This price behaviour was further reflected in cross-asset correlations — a measure of how closely two assets move together. In simple terms, a correlation of +1 means two assets move exactly the same way, –1 means they move in opposite directions, and 0 means there’s no relationship at all. A chart comparing Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq and gold shows that, as of April 28, BTC had a strong positive correlation with both the Nasdaq (+0.64) and gold (+0.70). Earlier in the month, Bitcoin had tracked equities closely, reaching a high correlation of +0.81 with the Nasdaq around April 1, but later dipped into negative territory before recovering. Its correlation with gold, meanwhile, flipped from negative (–0.29) to strongly positive over the same month. This dual correlation is rare — and highlights Bitcoin’s unique position: rallying alongside both risk assets and safe havens, proving it doesn’t neatly fit into traditional asset categories.

This past month has shown Bitcoin’s versatility more clearly than ever. Its ability to thrive in both risk-on and risk-off conditions marks a radical shift in how it trades — and perhaps how it's perceived. There is no other asset like it. Gold rallies in risk-off environments and during market uncertainty, while traditional stocks thrive in risk-on conditions. April proved that Bitcoin can behave like both — and rally in both. What we’re witnessing may just be the early signs of Bitcoin’s evolving role in global markets — no longer confined to a single narrative or asset class. As adoption grows and its use case continues to expand, Bitcoin’s ability to bridge the gap between growth and defensive assets could make it one of the most dynamic and adaptable financial instruments of the next decade.

The future is promising — and Bitcoin is only just getting started.

Stormrake at the Gold Coast Gold Conference:

This month, Stormrake Co-Founder and CEO Michael Milmeister presented at the Gold Coast Gold Conference, joining a timely conversation on hard money in an era of accelerating monetary instability. Our message was clear: Bitcoin and gold are not rivals — they’re allies in the same fight against a failing fiat system. Both are scarce, decentralised, and resilient to debasement. Far from being competitors, Bitcoin is the ultimate compliment to any gold bug’s portfolio — delivering the core properties of hard money, with the added advantages of portability, programmability, and a 24/7 global market.

The Most Confusing Month in Recent History:

We’ve just witnessed what’s probably the most confusing month since March 2020. April 2025 will go down in the history books — and be studied for years. Everyone expected volatility, especially with Trump setting a new precedent during his second stint in office.

The month kicked off with chaos. Trump’s Liberation Day was a shock to all, with tariffs slapped on 185 countries — each receiving a minimum of 10%, and China hit hardest at 34% (just the beginning for them). Markets tumbled. Over the next week, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq entered bear market territory (a 20% correction from their peaks), and Bitcoin dropped from $88K to a low of $74.5K.

At this stage, panic was everywhere. Fake tariff headlines triggered 5% intraday swings in the S&P 500. China began retaliating. Sentiment hit multi-year lows. Gold surged to new all-time highs day after day, while the S&P 500 rivalled the worst periods of Covid, the Global Financial Crisis, and the dot-com bubble in terms of four-day drawdowns. Investor confidence collapsed. The S&P 500’s Fear and Greed Index hit a reading of 3. Crypto markets also slipped into extreme fear — yet Bitcoin held above February’s low of 10.

People were chanting that it’s over — the bear market is back. Bitcoin’s headed for the $60Ks, maybe even the $50Ks. But how often are the majority right in predicting market direction? Not very…

At that moment, Buffett’s timeless quote should’ve been ringing in every investor’s ears: “Be greedy when others are fearful.” For Stormrake clients who acted on that, the reward came fast. We emphasised the opportunity in this down period — and it didn’t last long. Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause, and risk-on markets snapped back. Equities climbed out of bear market territory, and Bitcoin reclaimed $80K.

After rebounding off the $74.5K low on April 8, Bitcoin entered a tight 8-day consolidation phase between $83K–$86K, reflecting market indecision as traders processed the tariff headlines and macro mess. This base formation set the stage for the post-Easter breakout, where Bitcoin surged more than 11% in just 2.5 days — a risk-off rally that defied broader equity weakness. From the April low to its late-month high, Bitcoin traded in a 28.63% range — one of the widest monthly spreads in over a year, underscoring April’s extreme volatility.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/25zfIkkg/

While battling China, Trump also reignited a personal feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell — a one-sided affair, with Trump hurling online abuse and demanding immediate rate cuts, while Powell stood firm, reiterating that policy decisions would remain data-driven.

After its worst first quarter in years, Bitcoin is now up 15% in April and 12% since Liberation Day, despite all the chaos. Meanwhile, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain down since April 2. Gold is up 5%.

All of this reinforces Bitcoin’s versatility — thriving in risk-on and risk-off environments alike — and offers a glimpse of what’s to come.

In the News:

Mantra (OM) Collapse:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/K6NaBPac/

Not all headlines were positive. Mantra (OM) — the 19th largest crypto project and leading Real World Asset (RWA) protocol — collapsed in under 12 hours. At midnight, OM was trading at $6.50 with a market cap near $6B. By midday, it had plunged to $1.00, wiping out $5B in value — a staggering 90% drop. Many red flags had been ignored…

90-Day Tariff Pause:

We touched on the bullish impact of the 90-day tariff pause — here’s a deeper take. Tariffs remain in place. All countries still face a 10% minimum. Canada and Mexico are still at 25%, and China is at 145%. Additional 25% tariffs still apply on imports of autos, steel, and aluminium. This pause doesn’t remove tariffs — just delays the full return of Liberation Day levels. Unless agreements are reached, the full tariff regime may return in late July.

Australian Super Funds Hacked:

Some of Australia’s largest superannuation funds were hit by a major cyberattack this month. Affected: AustralianSuper, Hostplus, REST, Australian Retirement Trust, and Insignia — collectively managing over $700B. Pension-phase members were targeted, login access suspended, and mass panic followed.

This reinforces why we advocate for holding Bitcoin in your Self-Managed Super Fund — take control of your retirement, don’t leave it in the hands of third parties.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in April 2025:

Bitcoin rose 15.1% in April
Ethereum struggled, ending the month down 2% despite Bitcoin’s strength
The top 10 coins and their rankings remained unchanged from March
Memecoins led the charge — 3 of the top 5 performers in the top 100 were memecoins
After a 50% gain in April, Sui is now just three spots away from breaking into the top 10

Video of the month:

'What is Hard Money?' - Michael Milmeister, Stormrake

Education: Bitcoin’s Correlation to M2 Money Supply

The most important driver of long-term asset performance isn’t just hype or headlines—it’s liquidity. And the most reliable proxy for global liquidity is the M2 money supply. M2 includes cash, checking deposits, and near-money like savings—essentially the fuel for risk-on behaviour in markets. When M2 expands, it signals the presence of excess capital. That capital doesn’t sit still—it searches for returns, first moving into equities and real estate, then into higher-beta assets like crypto. When M2 contracts, this process reverses: risk assets draw down as liquidity dries up.

Historically, Bitcoin’s price has shown a clear lagging correlation with global M2 by approximately 70–90 days. This lag is a function of capital rotation. Institutional money doesn’t immediately flow from new liquidity into crypto—it first works through treasuries, credit, then equities, and finally into digital assets. This is why crypto is often the tail-end beneficiary of monetary expansion, but also why it tends to outperform when the liquidity tide is truly rising.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Eo0QuJ4o/

The chart above brings this relationship to life. The yellow line represents global M2 (shifted forward 90 days); the candles represent BTC/USD.

M2 peaked in November 2024—Bitcoin topped out in mid-January 2025, almost 80 days later.
M2 bottomed in late January; Bitcoin followed with its local low in mid-April.
M2 has since surged higher—suggesting the next move for Bitcoin could already be underway.

This pattern aligns with previous macro cycles. During the 2020–2021 bull market, M2 in the United States grew by over 25% YoY, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rise from $10K to $69K. That growth was fuelled by quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus—both of which drove an enormous surge in monetary aggregates. As soon as the Fed began tapering and M2 growth turned negative in late 2022, risk assets faltered.

We’re now seeing subtle signs of a shift back toward expansion. The Federal Reserve has begun re injecting liquidity into the system—through reverse repo declines, balance sheet management, and increased Treasury issuance supported by indirect monetisation. Meanwhile, the ECB and BOJ remain accommodative, helping drive global M2 higher once again.

It’s not just theory—it’s the maths of the macro cycle.

If history rhymes, we are in the early stages of Bitcoin’s next major leg. With M2 having bottomed in January and already climbing steadily, Bitcoin could track higher into late Q2 and Q3, if the 70–90 day lag remains consistent.

This framework offers more than a narrative—it provides a data-driven lens for anticipating crypto market direction. It underscores the importance of watching liquidity flows rather than price alone. Traders may focus on patterns, but macro investors track the current. Right now, that current is turning.

Liquidity leads. Bitcoin follows. It’s a proven formula—fade it at your own risk.

Memes of the Month

Written By Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

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Bitcoin Stalls as Trade War Pressures Mount on Nvidia

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 11:02:22 +1000

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Another slow day for Bitcoin, slipping approximately 1%, with Ethereum and Solana both down 2%. BTC tested the upper range discussed yesterday but couldn’t sustain a break above $86K, and has since been knocked back. Meanwhile, tariff headlines continue to weigh on traditional markets.

Despite the 90-day pause, little meaningful progress has been made between the US and European Union. Brussels expects tariffs to remain in place, as talks remain stalled with no clear breakthrough in sight.

Nvidia: The Trade War’s Favourite Target

The biggest casualty of the ongoing US-China trade skirmish remains Nvidia. Just hours after the White House suggested Trump was open to resuming trade talks with China, he moved to ban Nvidia’s H20 chips from being sold to the region. These chips were projected to contribute roughly 10.9% of Nvidia’s revenue. Following the ban, that figure is expected to fall nearly in half to just 5.9%.

In after-hours trading, Nvidia dropped nearly 7%. What’s more suspicious is that just hours before the announcement, there was an $8 million surge in put volumes on the Nasdaq 100 ETF. As expected, it dropped sharply following the news—shedding 300 points. This kind of pattern has become familiar during Trump’s presidency, with tariff shocks seemingly pre-empted by insider traders capitalising ahead of time. It’s a glaring red flag for market integrity—but in today’s regulatory landscape, it appears to be legal.

All Eyes on Powell

Jerome Powell is set to speak tomorrow morning, and markets will be watching closely—not just for any monetary guidance, but also for his reaction to the ongoing tariff flip-flops. The crypto market has been range-bound since late last week, and the tone Powell strikes could finally provide the volatility needed to push Bitcoin out of this rut.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.08)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/jYd2hFm3/

A relatively quiet day for XRP, down less than 2%. It looks like XRP has confirmed a higher high on the chart. The current pullback must hold above the recent low at $1.72 to maintain the bullish structure. Fortunately, XRP has major support above that level, with both 200-day moving averages and the broader range floor in play. A higher low here would reinforce the bullish case, though momentum still sits with the bears for now.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GZXlgVlh/

We highlighted Bitcoin’s CPR range in yesterday’s note, and after failing to break above $85,800, BTC has printed nine red hourly candles in the last eleven. The breakdown below the lower CPR level at $83.6K signals that bears have recaptured short-term momentum. This opens up the possibility of a return to the next key support at $81.6K.

Still, bulls have two critical lifelines—the 200 EMA and 200 SMA—just above that level, offering strong potential for a bounce.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 15 April: $ + 38.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin Ranges, Gold Rallies, USD Sees Worst Start in 30 Years

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 12:11:32 +1000

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A slow day for Bitcoin over the last 24 hours, with price deviating less than 1% from its open. The majors followed suit—Ethereum edged up 1.5%, while SOL and XRP posted gains of under 1%. Attention, however, was firmly centred on OM—and for good reason.

In traditional finance, most US equities opened stronger than Friday’s close but ultimately finished in the red. The S&P 500 marked another losing session, though it still sits higher than its Friday close—same story for the Nasdaq. Meanwhile, gold broke above $3,200 per ounce for the first time in history. It's now up 22% year-to-date, while most other assets remain in the red—including the DXY, which has fallen 8% since January. That marks its worst start to a year since 1995.

Trump’s strategy appears to be taking shape: devalue the dollar to boost US global competitiveness. But the trade-off is a pullback in risk-on assets, even as gold rallies in response.

In a notable development, Nvidia has announced it will manufacture AI supercomputers domestically for the first time ever. A major milestone—and a move aligned with Trump’s tariff playbook, aimed at reshoring high-value manufacturing.

OM Collapse: Red Flags Ignored

More details are emerging around the OM collapse, and with hindsight, the red flags were hard to miss.

The primary catalyst was suspicious wallet activity and the team’s overwhelming control of the token’s supply—90% of total supply was in the hands of the MANTRA team (defeats the purpose of decentralisation). That’s a glaring red flag, but it was seemingly overlooked in the rush to ride the hot real world asset narrative.

A wallet linked to MANTRA transferred 3.9 million $OM tokens to OKX, triggering immediate concerns. With the team holding near-total control of the supply, market manipulation became a legitimate fear. Rumours of over-the-counter (OTC) sales at discounts of up to 50% further eroded trust, hinting that insiders were offloading tokens at the expense of retail holders.

The fallout was swift. Panic selling set in, triggering a cascade of stop-losses and leveraged liquidations. Over $6 billion in market value was wiped out in just 30 minutes.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.12)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/rIDCUkIz/

Like Bitcoin, XRP had a relatively flat session, gaining less than 1%. But the lack of movement shouldn’t be seen as bearish—in fact, it’s quite the opposite. If XRP can continue building a base above the 21EMA (yellow line), it sets the stage for a potential breakout to the upside.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/XGOj3VCM/

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, moving between the CPR level of $83.6K and resistance at $85.8K. This range-bound price action is structurally bullish, as it signals continuation. A breakout above $85.8K could fuel a move toward $90K, while a breakdown may see Bitcoin retest the low $80K region.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 14 April: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Macro Fuels Bitcoin Push While Altcoin Fragility is Exposed

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 12:05:20 +1000

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Since our last update, it’s been a whirlwind few days in crypto. Bitcoin surged to $86K following a key policy shift from the Trump administration, and this morning saw the dramatic collapse of a top 20 crypto project.

Tariff Rollbacks Fuel Risk-On Rally

Saturday night's rally was driven by news that the US will grant tariff exemptions on smartphones, computers, and chip-makers—a significant rollback from Trump’s previously hardline stance. Before these exemptions, the projected price of an iPhone was expected to soar to around $3,500 USD, up from $1,000 USD, a staggering increase that would’ve hit consumers directly. This illustrates how deeply such tariffs impact everyday goods, especially as domestic production costs in the US remain far higher than imports from Asia.

While this rollback gave risk-on assets a boost, the broader picture remains murky. The continued policy flip-flopping adds further noise to an already convoluted macroeconomic backdrop. Today it’s bullish, but the next tariff headline could just as easily unwind the gains.

OM Collapses—RWA Sector Shaken

Not all headlines have been positive. Mantra (OM)—ranked as the 19th largest crypto project and the leading Real World Asset (RWA) protocol—collapsed overnight. At midnight, OM was trading at $6.50, with a market cap near $6 billion. By midday, it had plummeted to $1.00, slashing its market cap to $1 billion. A staggering 90% drop in less than 12 hours.

Panic has taken hold, with investors scrambling for answers. Rumours are swirling, but nothing concrete has emerged yet. In OM’s absence, Ondo now claims the top spot as the leading RWA protocol. It’s a brutal reminder of the immaturity still prevalent in the altcoin market, and the inherent risks in deviating from Bitcoin.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.14)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/RCUoshyO/

XRP has begun to reclaim its bullish structure, printing a higher high. If it can now form a higher low above $1.72, that structure will be confirmed. It’s currently holding above the 21EMA—a positive sign. If bulls maintain control, we could see XRP push towards the mid-range level at $2.40 in the sessions ahead.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bs0fJa8z/

Bitcoin remains in bullish structure with strong momentum. It briefly pierced the key resistance at $85.2K before pulling back to test the 55EMA, which held firm. BTC has since bounced, once again challenging this critical level. For the uptrend to continue, a confirmed break above $85.2K is essential. Failure to do so could open the door for the bears to return.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 13 April: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin sentiment strengthens as bulls return

Sat, 12 Apr 2025 17:34:15 +1000

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Bitcoin sentiment continues to build as price action remains bullish, climbing back above $83K. The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin has now risen to 43, quickly approaching the neutral zone—further evidence that bearish momentum is fading. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s own Fear & Greed reading has slipped from 17 to 13 despite the index rising 1.81% overnight. With BTC reclaiming ground, bears are steadily losing their grip on market control.

While the tariff headlines have quietened, tensions between China and the US persist. Overnight, China escalated the situation, raising tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125%.

The US 10-year Treasury yield has rallied once more, now sitting at 4.5%, prompting a response from the Federal Reserve, which is reportedly "absolutely" prepared to intervene to stabilise the market, per the Financial Times.

We're potentially witnessing a shift in policy drivers, with the US10Y becoming a central force.

Some believe the recent bond yield spike may have influenced Trump’s decision to delay new tariffs. There are also murmurs that the Fed could act earlier than expected, and rumours are circulating about Trump potentially scheduling a call with Chinese President Xi to address the tariff war. Still, Trump maintains that "the bond market did not drive his decision to delay reciprocal tariffs by 90 days."

Looking ahead, the next interest rate decision arrives in early May. While markets initially priced in the first cut of the year, expectations have cooled. There’s now a 60.2% probability of no change, and just a 39.8% chance of a 25 bps cut.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.01)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/lKWOQt7R/

XRP successfully reclaimed its broader range yesterday, closing back above $1.98. Not only did price reclaim key territory, it also moved above both the 200-day SMA and EMA—an encouraging sign for bulls.

That said, bears still maintain structural control. For the bulls to flip the trend, XRP must push past the recent high of $2.18 to establish a clear higher high.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/3Z7P1tyu/

Bitcoin rallied nearly 5% yesterday, testing CPR resistance once again at $83.6K. While BTC was previously rejected at this level, bulls now appear firmly in control, with both momentum and market structure favouring the upside.

The 21EMA is expected to act as immediate support, with the next key target sitting at $85.2K. Bulls remain in charge as long as any pullback holds above $81.6K—a level supported by the 55EMA, both 200-day moving averages, and a broader trendline.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 11 April: $ - 1.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Inflation Falls, But Tariffs Keep Pressure On

Sat, 12 Apr 2025 17:25:54 +1000

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Markets saw a modest pullback overnight as investors began to realise that the 90-day tariff pause hasn’t halted the broader trade war. The announcement appears increasingly like a classic bull trap, with tariffs not only remaining intact—but intensifying.

Here’s where things currently stand:

10% baseline tariffs on all countries global
25% on automobile imports to the US
25% on on steel and aluminum
25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico
145% tariffs on Chinese imports

Overnight, tariffs on Chinese imports were ramped up further, now sitting at an eye-watering 145%. President Trump also stated he’s considering delisting Chinese companies from US exchanges—adding another layer of geopolitical risk to an already fragile environment.

Despite the dip, markets remain higher than earlier in the week. The S&P 500 fell 3.5%, Bitcoin dropped 3.7%, slipping back below $80K, while gold rallied to yet another all-time high, trading above $3,200 USD/oz.

Markets Shrug Off Soft CPI Data

Adding to the mix was the release of inflation data—typically a market-moving event. However, markets barely flinched at a bullish CPI print. For the second consecutive month, inflation came in below expectations:

Core CPI MoM: Forecast 0.3%, Actual 0.1%
Headline CPI MoM: Forecast 0.1%, Actual -0.1%
Headline CPI YoY: Forecast 2.5%, Actual 2.4%

This is usually bullish for risk assets, yet markets remained flat or down. The lack of response shows the market’s current tunnel vision—tariffs are the dominant narrative, and even strong macro tailwinds are being ignored.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($1.98)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/XPAGAZIL/

XRP has reclaimed the lower boundary of its long-standing range after bouncing off a key support zone. Up 24% from its recent low at $1.61, the momentum and structure still favour the bears. However, a daily close above $1.98 would be the first sign of bullish recovery. Keep it on the radar.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bxDifY9z/

Bitcoin was rejected from $81.6K at the CPR level and is now trading below all major moving averages. The 21 and 55 EMAs are also on the verge of flipping—if they do, momentum shifts firmly back into bearish control.

However, if BTC can form a higher low above $75.7K, the structure flips back in favour of the bulls. Until then, we remain in a vulnerable zone.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 April: $ - 149.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

90-Day Tariff Pause Sparks Historic Market Rally

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 11:50:35 +1000

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To add more fuel to the confusion regarding Trump’s ‘plan’ and ‘vision’, he’s just announced a 90-day pause on tariffs — this comes one week after the reciprocal tariffs went live…

But the markets don’t care about any confusion this adds — green everywhere. The S&P 500 up 9.51%, Dow Jones up 7.87%, Nasdaq up 13.66%, Gold up 3.38%, and of course Bitcoin, up 8.27% with some altcoins up 20%. The DJI experienced its first 3,000-point single-day increase, Nasdaq posted its second-largest day in history, Japan’s stock market rallied 10% on open, and the volatility index (VIX) fell by 35% today. Recession odds have also dropped, with Polymarket showing a 49% chance after sitting at 66% yesterday.

Now does this mean the tariff pause will relieve markets of some volatility and reduce the uncertainty within? Potentially. Fear and Greed readings for both traditional markets and Bitcoin have jumped — S&P 500 up 13 points to 17 but still in extreme fear, and Bitcoin up 21 points from 18 to 39, moving from extreme fear to regular fear.

This tariff pause came only hours after Trump posted on Truth Social saying ‘THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT’. We also saw traders open SPY, QQQ, and TQQQ call options expiring the same day — right before the pause was announced. Within the hour, those calls were up 2,100%... a clear sign of insider trading?

Now this isn’t the first time we’ve seen a tariff pause. Back at the start of February, when the US set tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China — a day later Canada hit back with the same. The US responded with a 30-day pause and markets rallied off the back of it. Bitcoin went from $91k to $101k during that stretch, but once the pause ended, BTC was back to $86k.

Currently we’ve seen Bitcoin rally from $74k to $83.5k on the news, Ethereum and Solana up 13%, Sui and XRP up 15%, and ONDO leading with 20%. Some great relief from recent bearish price action.

Now there’s still a long way to go before tariffs resume. In that time, expect more tariff headlines, potential negotiations, rate decisions, and inflation data. Until then, no one knows what the market will do — unless you’ve got a crystal ball.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($1.79)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/fGwZ7Pto/

The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) saw serious movement this past week — starting around 4.20% on April 2, then dropping to a low of 3.87% by April 4 amid a bond rally and safe-haven demand. This initial move lower helped ease borrowing costs and supported risk-on sentiment, even as recession fears lingered. But yields then surged to 4.55% by April 9 after Trump’s tariff escalation on China, raising inflation risks and hitting risk assets.

After today’s pause, which reset most tariffs to 10% for 90 days, yields dropped back to 4.277% over the last 24 hours — a 23 basis point (-5.23%) decline from the peak. This pullback reflects reduced uncertainty, sparking a broad-based risk-on rally as capital rotated out of bonds and back into equities and crypto.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cOAaoK4o/

Bitcoin has rallied back above $82k following the tariff pause. This move has flipped momentum back in favour of the bulls and the structure looks to be turning — with a higher high now in place. As long as we see a higher low next, bulls will regain structural control.

BTC reached the CPR and was rejected at $83.5k — this is the immediate resistance. Key support now sits at $81.6k — the main bounce level for BTC to continue higher.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 9 April: $ - 37.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.