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The Rake Review: January

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 17:31:20 +1100

January Sets the Stage for a Bullish 2025

An event-packed January comes to an end, and Bitcoin is set to close positive once more, up 11%. This month saw Bitcoin trade back under $90K for the first time since mid-November, new all-time highs, and price catalyst events that seemed to emerge every few days. From bearish events such as the US DOJ's clearance to sell seized assets, the lack of any mention of crypto in Trump’s inauguration speech, and DeepSeek AI posing a threat to US AI stocks, to bullish catalysts like a dovish tone from Powell and a pro-crypto executive order, the market experienced a constant push and pull.

From Doubt to Dominance

In the early days of Bitcoin, many traditional financial leaders and government officials viewed it with scepticism and even hostility. For instance, in 2019, former President Donald Trump stated, "I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air." Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink had once dismissed Bitcoin as an "index of money laundering." The mainstream narrative painted Bitcoin as a tool for criminals, a speculative bubble, or, at best, a niche asset for tech enthusiasts.

Yet, Bitcoin persisted. During 80% drawdowns, it faced relentless criticism: media headlines called it a scam, governments threatened regulation, and financial institutions openly mocked its supporters. Over the last five years, Bitcoin experienced immense volatility—falling below $4,000 in 2020, then $10,000, $20,000, $30,000, and $40,000, eventually creating new highs. Each price collapse was met with critics celebrating Bitcoin's 'downfall', yet every drawdown offered a historic opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin.

The individuals who bought during these crashes—who held extreme conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term vision—understood that mainstream adoption was inevitable. They weren’t swayed by FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt); instead, they recognised Bitcoin’s value proposition and its potential to be integrated into the global financial system.

Fast forward to January 2024, and the landscape had dramatically shifted. Bitcoin was trading around $40,000, and the launch of the first Bitcoin ETFs marked a historic moment where traditional finance finally embraced digital assets. BlackRock, once sceptical, now led the charge with its Bitcoin ETF, alongside other Wall Street giants.

By January 2025, Bitcoin’s ascent continued, surpassing $100,000 and proving that those who bet against it had once again been wrong. This time, the adoption wave wasn’t limited to asset managers—the U.S. government itself had stepped in. In a groundbreaking move, President Trump signed an executive order supporting Bitcoin and pro-crypto policies, marking the first official embrace of Bitcoin at the highest level of government. The man who once dismissed Bitcoin as "thin air" was now positioning himself as "The Crypto President." Over the past year, he has repeatedly praised Bitcoin and crypto, emphasising the importance of "financial freedom" and a "pro-Bitcoin stance" for America's economic future.

This transformation—from rejection to adoption—has solidified Bitcoin's role as a legitimate global asset. The past two Januaries have validated everything Bitcoin believers had envisioned: first, institutional adoption through ETFs, and now, the governmental embrace of Bitcoin as an economic force. Those who doubted Bitcoin during the bear markets, waiting for it to "go to zero," have been proven wrong time and time again.

As we stand in January 2025, Bitcoin’s journey is far from over. If history has taught us anything, it’s that Bitcoin doesn’t just survive—it thrives. And those who understand its long-term trajectory will continue to benefit from the opportunities it presents.

A Busy Yet Consolidative January

Source:: https://www.tradingview.com/x/YOnYYGEJ/

January 2025 seemed relatively slow in terms of price action, with Bitcoin hovering around $100,000 despite its intra-month highs and lows. However, this apparent calm belied a storm of events shaping the crypto market.

From Bitcoin’s 16th birthday to U.S. government drama, inflation data, and Chinese AI developments, the month was anything but quiet. Bitcoin started January strong, with seven consecutive days of bullish price action before bearish news hit the markets.

Just over a week before President Trump’s inauguration, the U.S. Department of Justice announced plans to sell 69,000 Bitcoin it had seized. This move shocked many, particularly as Trump had previously vowed not to sell seized Bitcoin during his presidency. The timing, just days before his inauguration, felt deliberate.

This bearish revelation, combined with disappointing employment data, pushed Bitcoin lower. However, the release of bullish CPI data for risk-on assets saw Bitcoin rally back above $100,000. Days before Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin remained steady, but the inauguration speech itself brought the anticipated volatility. After dropping briefly below $100,000 due to no mention of Bitcoin in the speech, it quickly rallied to new all-time highs near $110,000.

The post-inauguration week was packed with crypto-related government developments, including:

The resignation of Gary Gensler.
The creation of a Crypto Task Force within the SEC.
A pro-crypto executive order to establish a national digital asset stockpile.

Bitcoin consolidated between $100,000 and $109,900 until another significant event disrupted the markets: the launch of DeepSeek AI, a Chinese-developed open-source AI protocol seen as a competitor to ChatGPT. The announcement sent ripples through global markets, especially tech-heavy sectors. The NASDAQ opened 1.2% lower due to the dominance of AI-related stocks, with NVIDIA recording a $600 billion single-day market cap wipeout—the largest in history.

Crypto wasn’t immune to this shock, with Bitcoin briefly falling 5% to dip below $100,000. However, Bitcoin and altcoins rebounded strongly. Bitcoin reclaimed $104,000, while projects like Sui, Ripple, and Ondo recovered their losses and rallied to new highs.

The final event of the month was the heavily anticipated FOMC interest rate decision. Although a rate cut was deemed highly unlikely, the market still reacted negatively to the announcement of no cut. However, a dovish tone from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided relief, sending Bitcoin from $101,000 to $105,000.

Looking ahead, February has historically been one of Bitcoin’s most bullish months, with an average return of 16.6%. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could end February at approximately $122,500. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results.

In the News:

Stormrake Client Portal:

We are thrilled to announce the Stormrake Client Portal. Here’s what’s waiting for you:

A secure, intuitive way to view your crypto assets.
Real-time insights into your portfolio.
A foundation for even greater features coming soon.

In the coming days, Stormrake clients will receive an email inviting them to the new Stormrake Client Portal.

Czech Republic BTC Accumulation:

Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has proposed allocating 5% of the 140 million euros within the central bank’s reserves to Bitcoin, which could make the CNB the first Western central bank to officially buy and hold Bitcoin.

Ross Ulbricht Pardoned:

During his campaign, President Trump pledged to pardon Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, a move widely supported by the crypto community. On his first day in office, he delivered on that promise, securing Ulbricht’s release.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in January 2025:

Bitcoin ends January up 11%.
XRP becomes the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Solana drops to 5th place.
DOGE flips USDC to take 7th place.
TRUMP token storms into the top 35 within 48 hours of launch.

Video of the month

The Pro-Crypto Executive Order Explained

Education: Bitcoin’s Rising Dominance: The Great Coin Dilution Effect

Over the past few years, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed an explosion of new tokens. Thousands of projects launch daily, and millions of new coins enter circulation. Despite this relentless expansion, Bitcoin’s price has not only increased but dominance has strengthened.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Bitcoin dominance (BTC’s share of the total crypto market value) has risen from 40% to 59% in three years.
Ethereum (ETH), once holding 18% of total market capitalisation, has slipped to 10%.
All other coins combined have fallen from 42% to 30%.

The Rise of Disposable Coins

98% of memecoins fail to survive longer than three months.
10,417 tokens are launched daily, yet 9,912 become defunct.
The average lifespan of a memecoin is just 12 days.
15% of memecoins die within one day of launch.

Source: https://chainplay.gg/blog/lifespan-pump-fun-memecoins-analysis/

This rapid churn dilutes the altcoin market, siphons investor capital into speculative plays, and undermines long-term confidence in the sector.

Altcoin Dilution: The Flood vs. the Foundation

While Bitcoin operates on a strict fixed supply of 21 million, the altcoin market is inundated with tokens, many of which are inflationary or poorly structured. This has two major effects:

Capital Dilution – With every new token, available liquidity fragments further, reducing the ability of altcoins to sustain long-term value.
Market Confidence Erosion – As most altcoins fail, capital rotates into Bitcoin, reinforcing its position as a safe haven.

Decoupling of Bitcoin and Altcoin Market Caps

Historically, Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market have moved in tandem. During bull markets, altcoins often outperformed Bitcoin, acting as leverage on BTC’s price action. Conversely, during bear markets, altcoins experienced sharper declines, with their lack of liquidity amplifying losses

However, the chart above points to a clear decoupling trend.

Bitcoin is increasingly diverging from the broader crypto market. Historically, speculative "alt seasons" drove temporary outperformance by altcoins, but this dynamic appears to be fading. As the latest market trends indicate, Bitcoin is beginning to leave the rest of the crypto market behind.

Key Observations:

Bitcoin’s Rising Market Cap

Since 2022, Bitcoin’s market cap has consistently trended upwards, reflecting growing demand from institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, and individuals seeking a secure, scarce digital asset.
Altcoin Market Cap Stagnation

In contrast, altcoins have struggled with choppy price action, as continuous dilution from speculative token launches undermines growth and fragments liquidity.
The End of "Alt Seasons"

The previous trend of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin during speculative phases is fading, reinforcing Bitcoin’s dominance and decoupling from the broader market.

What This Means

This decoupling reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment. Bitcoin’s scarcity, unrivalled security, and growing institutional adoption make it increasingly differentiated. Meanwhile, the altcoin market struggles with rampant speculation, daily dilution, and high failure rates.

The Takeaway: Buy and Hold Bitcoin

Despite millions of new tokens flooding the market, Bitcoin’s dominance is rising—a testament to its resilience and appeal. In a world awash with disposable tokens, Bitcoin’s stability and scarcity make it the clear standout

Written by Alexandar Artis

Memes of the month

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

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Bitcoin Battles $100k Ahead of Key FOMC Decision

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 14:06:19 +1100

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Bitcoin is currently grappling to hold above the crucial $100k level as the market braces for tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. While BTC consolidates around this psychological threshold, altcoins have fared worse, retracing significantly. Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are down by 3.5%, with most other projects declining by over 5%. However, two notable exceptions are XRP and ONDO, both of which have remained resilient amidst the broader market sell-off.

This resilience follows the announcement of a partnership between Ondo Finance and Ripple.

Ripple x Ondo Finance Partnership Sparks Interest

Ondo Finance—a previous Stormrake Spotlight and a standout project in real-world asset tokenisation—has teamed up with Ripple to launch tokenised US Treasuries on the XRP Ledger. This collaboration underscores Ondo’s ambition to bridge traditional finance with blockchain and highlights Ripple’s ongoing efforts to expand its use cases.

Both XRP and ONDO benefit from strong institutional and community support. XRP continues to draw attention due to its potential links with US government entities, while ONDO is backed by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. This partnership has contributed to their relative outperformance against a bearish market backdrop.

Market Eyes Jerome Powell’s Speech

With less than 20 hours until Jerome Powell takes the stage to discuss the FOMC’s latest interest rate decision, market participants are bracing for heightened volatility. While there’s a 97.9% probability of no rate change, traders are eager to parse Powell’s tone.

Since the last hawkish presser in mid-December, economic data has sent mixed signals. While job numbers have been weak, core CPI figures suggest a slowing in inflation. Whether Powell maintains a hawkish stance or adopts a more dovish tone remains to be seen, but the next 24 hours promise to be pivotal.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($3,085)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y9lTfGqF/

Ethereum continues its downward trend but is finding support within a critical accumulation zone. Over the past two days, ETH has repeatedly bounced from the zone’s lower boundary. If Ethereum can establish a base here, it could signal a bottoming pattern, potentially setting the stage for a run toward higher targets in the coming weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GVCK5yj3/

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the $104k level, failing to break above key moving averages. Consequently, BTC has retreated and is now fighting to stay above $100k. This level is crucial; if BTC holds and forms a higher low, it could create bullish divergence, offering some hope for a market rebound.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 28 Jan: $ -11.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/98OEAgaV/

Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s struggle, having failed to flip $3,207 into support while also being rejected by the 21 and 55 EMAs. ETH is now hovering near $3,000, a key level that could provide much-needed support. Should ETH hold and build momentum here, it may make another attempt to reclaim the moving averages and retest $3,207.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 28 Jan: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

A Volatile Start to an Eventful Week Ahead

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 14:01:39 +1100

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The ‘DeepSeek crash’ reverberated through traditional markets yesterday, leading to a sharp 1.54% drop in the S&P 500 and a near 5% intraday plunge for the Nasdaq. NVIDIA, which has been a standout performer in recent months, suffered a historic setback. The tech giant closed the day down 17%, wiping out approximately $590 billion in market capitalisation—a record-breaking single-day loss for any stock, surpassing its previous record of $311 billion.

Crypto Markets React and Rebound

As discussed in yesterday’s Morning Note, crypto markets were not immune to the fallout. Bitcoin (BTC) dipped nearly 5%, reaching a low of $97.7k, while the majority of altcoins endured losses exceeding 10%. However, in a departure from traditional markets, crypto displayed resilience. Coins like SUI and XRP recovered after intraday losses of 10%, closing up by 3% and 1%, respectively.

Bitcoin clawed its way back to close at $102k, just $500 below its daily open—a strong recovery that signals underlying strength amidst broader uncertainty.

The volatility led to approximately $820 million in leverage liquidations. While this figure may seem substantial, it is relatively moderate compared to some of the more dramatic liquidation days seen in the past month.

Market Outlook: Promising Rebound, but Risks Remain

While this bounce is encouraging and Bitcoin has reclaimed its broader trading range, caution is still warranted. Thursday morning’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting looms large, with market participants nearly unanimous in expecting no rate cut. All eyes are on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference following the decision. His tone will likely set the direction for both traditional and crypto markets in the coming weeks.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($3,175)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/O87ELq4s/

Ethereum has rebounded perfectly from the lower boundary of its accumulation zone, climbing 5.41% from its recent low. Despite its current bearish structure and momentum, this accumulation zone remains a proven support level. For investors seeking undervalued opportunities, ETH at these levels presents a compelling case.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/tCfri9Ua/

Bitcoin briefly dipped below the critical $100k support before staging a recovery. It is now forming a ‘W’-shaped pattern, with $100k proving to be a strong support level, bolstered by the top CPR line at $99.4k. To solidify this rebound, Bitcoin must reclaim all key moving averages and break above $104k. Achieving this would confirm the recent low as a short-term bottom, setting the stage for a potential retest of all-time highs.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 27 Jan: $ -158.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/R3djGOwn/

Ethereum’s recovery mirrors Bitcoin’s, with a similar ‘W’-shaped pattern. However, it currently faces significant resistance at $3,207 and the 55-EMA. Reclaiming this resistance and flipping it into support is crucial for ETH to regain bullish momentum.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 27 Jan: $ -84.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Will DeepSeek Trigger a Deeper Dive for Bitcoin?

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 13:53:53 +1100

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After a relatively quiet weekend for the crypto markets, Monday morning opened with a sharp retracement as traditional markets reacted to the unveiling of DeepSeek AI.

The US markets saw significant turbulence, with NASDAQ futures (NQ!) plunging over 250 points (a 1.2% drop) at the open. Approximately one-third of the NASDAQ is composed of AI-related stocks, which have been a key driver of this year’s bullish momentum. Unsurprisingly, the emergence of DeepSeek AI—an open-source competitor—has triggered concerns, leading to a notable sell-off in tech-heavy indices.

This volatility has rippled into the crypto markets, pulling Bitcoin and altcoins lower. Bitcoin remains within its established range, with the lower boundary around $100k and the upper boundary at its all-time high near $109k. Current price action suggests that Bitcoin may test the lower end of this range ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision scheduled for Thursday.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($3,203)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/2nqqGxpT/

Our new Stormrake Spotlight focuses and provides a more in depth analysis on undervalued cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum (ETH) offering a compelling risk-reward profile at current levels. ETH is currently trading within a key accumulation zone between $3,000 and $3,200, presenting a potential opportunity for strategic accumulation.

As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Ethereum has yet to experience a significant rally comparable to those seen in other digital assets. Notably, Donald Trump's World Liberty Financials lists Ethereum among its largest holdings, further highlighting its appeal in high-stakes portfolios.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/qvsMxScD/

After an extended period of consolidation, Bitcoin has dropped over 3% in the wake of the DeepSeek AI correction. This correction has broken Bitcoin's neutral structure, flipping market momentum in favour of the bears.

The $100k level is now a critical area to watch and could act as a support zone. A sustained hold at this level might provide a foundation for a rebound, depending on upcoming macroeconomic developments.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 26 Jan: (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/U4JFQAb6/

Ethereum has mirrored Bitcoin's trajectory, dropping nearly 4% in recent hours. The bearish momentum has firmly taken hold, bringing ETH to the critical level of $3,207. As noted earlier, ETH is now trading within the accumulation zone between $3,000 and $3,200, where buyers may step in to provide support.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 26 Jan: (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Consolidates: Awaiting the Next Catalyst

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 13:45:47 +1100

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We’re now 24 hours on from the signing of the first pro-crypto executive order, and despite some initial volatility, Bitcoin remains in consolidation. Similar to its previous range between $90k and $100k, Bitcoin is now exhibiting comparable price action between $100k and its all-time high of $109.9k.

The inauguration of President Trump, coupled with the highly anticipated crypto executive order, served as the necessary catalyst to propel Bitcoin beyond its prior consolidation zone and reclaim the $100k level. However, the hype and anticipation surrounding the event ultimately outpaced the reality. Many had expected Trump to explicitly reference crypto in his speech or announce a strategic Bitcoin Reserve shortly after taking office. Neither materialised, resulting in some short-term sell-offs. That said, his executive order and the establishment of a dedicated crypto task force within the SEC have laid the groundwork for a crypto-friendly administration, potentially prolonging this bull market.

The current consolidation range of $100k to $109k is likely to persist until the next catalyst emerges to drive price action. Fortunately, we won’t have to wait long—Thursday morning brings the first FOMC interest rate decision of the year. With a 99.5% probability of rates being held steady, the decision itself is almost a foregone conclusion. Instead, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Should Powell maintain his hawkish tone from December’s presser, Bitcoin could test the lower end of the range and potentially dip below $100k. Conversely, any hint of dovish sentiment would likely propel Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs.

Stormrake Spotlight: Trump (TRUMP) ($29.16)

Trump (TRUMP) has dropped 14%, slipping below $30, and is currently ranked as the 32nd largest cryptocurrency. This marks the end of the current iteration of the Stormrake Spotlight as you know it—stay tuned next week for a fresh, enhanced format!

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/3JP5pXoW/

Bitcoin is hovering just above the critical $104k level, which coincides with a major CPR pivot and the 55 EMA. Holding this level is essential for maintaining bullish momentum and favouring a move to the upper range of $109k. Should Bitcoin lose $104k, a retest of $100k appears likely.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 24 Jan: $ + 175.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/I0Sqv9RP/

Ethereum is retreating towards the lower end of its range after failing to break through the key CPR level at $3,440. Should momentum continue to favour the bears, a retest of $3,207 appears imminent.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 24 Jan: $ + 7.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

A CRYPTO EXECUTIVE ORDER HAS BEEN SIGNED....

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 13:39:34 +1100

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Donald Trump has signed the first crypto executive order, but the market’s response has been far from what many anticipated. Over the past year, there has been significant speculation surrounding the Lummis Bill and the proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), leading many to expect Trump to confirm the SBR through an executive order. However, this was not the case. Instead, Trump signed an order to create a national digital asset stockpile.

While it’s reasonable to assume this stockpile will include Bitcoin, the order also leaves the door open for other cryptocurrencies to be held, expanding its scope and influence.

Pro-Crypto Measures in the Executive Order

This executive order is a significant step forward for the cryptocurrency space, with the following key details:

Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets:

A new body is established to strengthen U.S. leadership in digital finance. Its focus includes creating a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins, and exploring a national digital assets stockpile.

Leadership & Expertise:

The group will be chaired by the White House AI & Crypto Czar, David Sacks, and involve top officials such as the Treasury Secretary and SEC Chair. External digital asset experts will also contribute to ensure robust, informed policymaking.

Regulatory Evaluation:

Federal departments and agencies must identify outdated or restrictive regulations impacting digital assets, providing recommendations for updates or rescissions.

CBDC Restriction:

Agencies are prohibited from establishing or promoting Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) under this order.

Overturning Previous Policies:

It revokes the previous administration's Digital Assets Executive Order and the Treasury's restrictive framework, seen as barriers to innovation and global competitiveness.

Market Reaction: Short-Term Volatility and FUD

Despite its pro-crypto stance, the market reacted poorly to the news. This reaction stems from expectations that the SBR would be announced shortly after Trump took office. Instead, the executive order focuses on “exploring a national digital assets stockpile” rather than confirming its creation, leaving room for fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) around the SBR.

Markets are often impatient and irrational. This, combined with the "sell the news" behaviour, has contributed to short-term volatility following the signing of the order.

From today, the newly established working group has 180 days to deliver a comprehensive report that will outline future legislative and regulatory proposals regarding the potential SBR and digital asset stockpile.

Long-Term Bullish Implications

While the short-term market correction might seem disheartening, this executive order should ultimately be viewed as bullish. The 180-day timeline for the working group to refine the framework ensures that the current bull run will likely be prolonged, as anticipation builds for the SBR. The real momentum will begin once the U.S. government starts purchasing Bitcoin, which will drive demand on an unprecedented scale. Until then, this period presents a valuable opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin and add to your altcoin bags in preparation for the next major phase of the market.

Stormrake Spotlight: Trump (TRUMP) ($33.86)

TRUMP is steadily declining as the hype and buying demand fade. While it’s unlikely to go to zero like 99.99% other meme coins, TRUMP’s time in the spotlight seems to be ending. Nonetheless, it’s expected to remain a significant player in the memecoin space and has even garnered attention through an ETF filing.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/tEl3s5qO/

Bitcoin broke below its key symmetrical triangle pattern late yesterday and was on track for a push toward $100k. However, BTC then bounced by over 5.5%, creating another lower high overnight while maintaining a higher low in the short term.

Since then, Bitcoin has failed to hold above the critical $104k level, due to the volatility caused by the executive order and the ensuing “sell the news” event.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 23 Jan: $ + 4.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/TOU4vdr5/

Ethereum broke below its symmetrical triangle, reaching the critical support level of $3,207 before finding solid support and bouncing by over 4%. Currently, ETH is eyeing the $3,557 level but first needs to overcome both 200-day moving averages – a significant challenge. If it succeeds, we could see momentum shift back to the bulls, potentially forming a bullish structure.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 23 Jan: $ - 22.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Are Solana and Ripple Futures and ETFs on the Horizon?

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 15:39:40 +1100

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The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the world’s leading exchange for futures and options markets, recently added pages for XRP and SOL futures to their website. The pages indicated a planned launch date of February 10, pending regulatory review.

CME has a history of pioneering crypto futures products. Their BTC futures debuted in December 2017, coinciding with that cycle's market peak. ETH futures followed in February 2021, launched during the bull run. Both products were milestones, representing the first of their kind in the crypto futures space.

Source:https://x.com/summersthings/status/1882149522304073996?s=46&t=NtmC6-oirGSmq2U2q6D0nw

However, the newly added page promoting XRP and SOL futures have since been removed. The contents of the deleted page can be found here.

With a more crypto-friendly administration and a dedicated task force within the SEC, we can expect an uptick in the launch of regulated crypto products. It stands to reason that XRP and Solana, two of the largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, would be next in line to receive futures markets and potentially ETFs.

As noted yesterday, several ETF filings for both XRP and SOL are currently in progress. These filings, combined with a favourable regulatory environment, could pave the way for these products to be approved soon.

The potential launch of futures and ETFs is undeniably bullish for Solana and Ripple. At the time of writing, SOL is up 3%, while XRP is holding steady. This is particularly notable on a day when the broader crypto market is in the red, with BTC down 2% and ETH down 2.7%.

The approval of ETFs has historically had a positive impact on crypto prices, as seen with both Bitcoin and Ethereum. With SOL and XRP trading near their all-time highs, the momentum generated by these developments could propel them past previous records, unlocking significant upside potential.

Stormrake Spotlight: Trump (TRUMP) ($37.41)

Donald Trump’s meme coin, TRUMP, saw a sharp drop of 30% in just three minutes yesterday, falling to a low of $31.72 following the President’s statement: "I don't know much about it other than I launched it, I heard it was very successful. I haven't checked." Given its correlation with President Trump’s public actions and comments, TRUMP remains highly volatile. Market participants should be prepared for further fluctuations, as sentiment-driven moves dominate its price action.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GPjG5XHP/

Bitcoin failed to create a higher high yesterday, which was crucial to sustaining bullish momentum. Instead, BTC has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. As BTC approaches the triangle’s apex, a breakout appears imminent; an upward breakout could see BTC attempt a new all-time high, while a downward breakout may result in a retest of the $100,000 support level.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 22 Jan: $ - 82.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/1RogQMzh/

Ethereum has broken to the downside of its symmetrical triangle and is now trading lower. It appears poised to retest the key level at $3,207. The breakdown has also pushed ETH below all major moving averages, confirming bearish momentum within a declining structure.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 22 Jan: $ - 17.4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Crypto Task Force: A New Era for Regulation and Market Growth

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 15:32:47 +1100

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It’s official: Gary Gensler, former chairman of the US SEC and a notorious adversary of the crypto ecosystem, has stepped down. This marks a monumental day for crypto and a highly bullish development for the industry, as the past four years under Gensler's leadership have been fraught with challenges for cryptocurrency regulations and ETF filings.

This departure doesn’t come as a surprise. One of Donald Trump’s campaign promises—and a strategic move to win over crypto-friendly voters—was to dismiss Gensler and appoint a more crypto-friendly chair to the SEC. Under Gensler, the SEC faced significant criticism from crypto companies and investors for regulating the industry through enforcement actions rather than providing a clear and actionable regulatory framework. This approach created widespread confusion about what is legal and fostered a hostile environment for the crypto industry.

Overnight, the SEC announced the creation of a new Crypto Task Force, which will be led by SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce. Known in the industry as the “Crypto Mom” due to her consistent dissent against SEC enforcement actions targeting crypto companies, Peirce’s leadership signals a shift towards a more cooperative and transparent regulatory approach.

According to the SEC, the task force aims to “establish clear regulatory boundaries, offer practical registration pathways, design effective disclosure frameworks, and strategically utilise enforcement resources.” This should provide much-needed clarity for crypto companies, projects, and investors, eliminating the ambiguity that has plagued the sector in recent years.

In response to this announcement, Bitcoin rallied by 3%, bringing altcoins along with it. The broader market saw a positive 24-hour period, with gains across the majority of cryptocurrencies.

Source:https://x.com/JSeyff

This new, crypto-friendly SEC is expected to have a significant impact on crypto ETF filings. We are likely to see an increase in applications, not just for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs but also for other major cryptocurrencies like XRP and Solana (SOL). Even meme coins such as TRUMP, BONK, and DOGE have recently seen ETF filings, as shown in the image above. With clearer regulations, more crypto ETFs are likely to gain approval, potentially driving further bullish momentum across the market.

In another breaking development, President Trump has officially pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. While Trump has yet to sign a pro-crypto executive order, this pardon is a promising gesture that signals his commitment to the crypto-friendly policies he campaigned on, including the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative.

Stormrake Spotlight: Trump (TRUMP) ($44.31)

TRUMP, a meme coin, has seen a 30% bounce since yesterday’s spotlight. It appears to have cemented itself as a dominant force within the meme coin sector. Notably, a recent filing for a TRUMP meme coin ETF has further bolstered its position.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/V9FpNCeW/

Bitcoin is currently bullish, trading above the key level of $104,000. The market appears poised to retest the all-time high (ATH). If BTC fails to surpass the ATH, it could establish a lower high, signalling potential bearish control. Maintaining the $104,000 level is crucial; losing it may be the first indication of a bearish reversal.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 21 Jan: $ + 133.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/lzteBDTP/

Ethereum remains within the broader range discussed yesterday and is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern is defined by consecutive lower highs and higher lows, suggesting a breakout is imminent. A break to the upside would be bullish, pushing ETH higher, while a downside breakout would likely send ETH to the lower boundary of the range.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 21 Jan: $ + 11.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Trump’s Inauguration: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride to a New All-Time High (and Back)

Tue, 21 Jan 2025 15:08:53 +1100

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The long-awaited moment has arrived: President Donald Trump is back in power and has delivered his first inauguration speech. The cryptocurrency market has had a turbulent 24 hours. Bitcoin surged to $106k, seemingly poised to break new all-time highs, only to fall back below $100k before sending to new all time highs. Adding to the excitement, Melania Trump followed in her husband’s footsteps, launching her own meme coin, MELANIA.

As anticipation for the inauguration grew, Bitcoin experienced a major reversal, ultimately reaching a new all-time high. The cryptocurrency rallied 10%, topping out at $109,951. Ethereum followed suit, climbing to over $3,450—a near 10% increase from its daily low.

Speculation had been mounting that Trump might address cryptocurrency or the much-discussed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Polymarket, the popular prediction market platform, saw odds of Trump creating a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days rise to 55%, further fueling bullish sentiment across the crypto sector. With market conditions looking promising, hopes were high.

However, when Trump took the stage, he made no mention of cryptocurrency or Bitcoin. The lack of acknowledgment sent Bitcoin back down, with the price dropping back below $102k almost immediately. Polymarket’s odds for the creation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve fell sharply to 39%, a bearish indicator for Bitcoin’s outlook. Additionally, the highly anticipated pro-crypto executive order remains unsigned, with expectations now shifting to the early days of his administration.

While a Trump presidency is widely seen as positive for Bitcoin and crypto in general, the market's reaction to his speech has raised concerns. The sell-off, triggered by the absence of crypto-related commentary, underscores the influence Trump’s statements—or lack thereof—can have on market sentiment. If simply avoiding the topic causes such volatility, one can only imagine the impact when he eventually does address Bitcoin, whether positively or negatively. His influence could be unlike anything the market has seen before.

Stormrake Spotlight: Trump (TRUMP) ($34.20)

The TRUMP coin has continued its downward trend, now trading 50% below its recent highs. While it saw a brief rally leading up to the inauguration, the subsequent Bitcoin sell-off dragged TRUMP even lower.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bOYWIKYR/

Bitcoin’s wild price swings are evident. After rallying to $106k, it retraced to the critical $100k support level before surging to a new all-time high of $109,951. Following Trump’s speech, the lack of crypto-related commentary led to a rapid sell-off. Bitcoin has not only fallen below the key $104k level but is also on the verge of a bearish crossover between the 21 EMA and 55 EMA—a potential signal of further downside. The next significant support level is $100k. For bulls to regain control, Bitcoin must reclaim $104k.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 20 Jan: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/AnvdeGjP/

Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s price movements, rallying sharply before entering a correction. It remains in a consolidation range between its recent high of $3,426 and the lower boundary near $3,200. A breakout from this range is needed to determine Ethereum’s next directional move. For now, the price action remains range-bound.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 20 Jan: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

A Crypto Market Shaped by Trump

Tue, 21 Jan 2025 15:03:45 +1100

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These past few days have underscored just how much impact a single individual can have on the market. On Saturday morning, Donald Trump announced via X (formerly Twitter) that he was launching his own memecoin, TRUMP. Initially, many were sceptical, questioning whether his account had been hacked. However, as the hours passed, TRUMP’s price soared. In less than 48 hours, TRUMP skyrocketed from $0.18 to a staggering $76, catapulting it into the top 15 cryptocurrencies by market cap.

Since TRUMP was launched on the Solana network, SOL reaped significant benefits. Riding the momentum of the listing, SOL surged to new all-time highs, peaking at $295—just shy of the $300 milestone.

The broader market was rallying in tandem. Bitcoin climbed above $106,000, TRUMP coin dominated headlines, and Melania Trump released her own meme coin, which quickly began trending. However, during Trump’s Victory Rally speech, the markets took an unexpected turn. Bitcoin fell back under $100,000, TRUMP dropped sharply from $76 to $30, and Solana faced significant congestion issues.

SOL’s price fell to $247 amid a wave of major on-chain sell-offs into liquidity pools. At one point, the price of SOL on-chain dropped as low as $200—well below its market rate—prompting arbitrage bots to exploit the gap. They snapped up discounted SOL on-chain and sold it on centralised exchanges, where prices remained closer to $250. This spike in on-chain activity caused severe congestion, with Solana withdrawals taking up to an hour to process, compared to the usual few minutes. Phantom wallet users also faced disruptions, with over 8 million requests per minute leading to widespread transaction failures.

Donald Trump is now less than 24 hours away from being sworn in for his second term as President of the United States. His influence on the crypto markets has been on full display over the past few days, and it seems likely to persist throughout his presidency. Some analysts speculate that the absence of cryptocurrency mentions during his Victory Rally speech contributed to Bitcoin’s decline. While this remains conjecture, the theory holds some merit. Many in the crypto space are eagerly anticipating a pro-crypto executive order on his first day in office. However, should these expectations fall short, Bitcoin and the wider market may face a pullback, potentially retesting recent lows of $90,000.

Stormrake Spotlight: Trump (TRUMP) ($48.96)

This week’s Stormrake Spotlight is a no-brainer. TRUMP coin has achieved unprecedented growth, propelling itself into the top 15 cryptocurrencies within just 48 hours of its release. We’ll continue monitoring this phenomenon with great interest.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ecFTOAcY/

It’s been a whirlwind for Bitcoin price action. After trading above $106,000, BTC has now slipped back below $100,000 in the span of just four hours. The key support level of $104,000 failed to hold, shifting focus to the critical $100,000 mark. A break below this could see Bitcoin decline further, with a possible retest of $95,700.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 19 Jan: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/hOvcsZvo/

Ethereum remains locked in a consolidation range, trading around $3,200. Currently hovering just below the key level of $3,207, a sustained move beneath this level could push ETH towards the lower end of its range. The red CPR level at $2,923 serves as the primary downside target.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 19 Jan: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.