Stormrake - Insights #Alexandar Artis

Q3 2026 Outlook Breakdown – Part 3: The Great Rotation

Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:16:07 +1000

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We're back with our Q3 Outlook breakdown series, this time looking at Bitcoin against the backdrop of traditional markets.

So far in this series, we’ve looked inward: Bitcoin’s own drawdown history, its own chart structure, its own sentiment cycle. Today we widen the lens and look at Bitcoin relative to something else entirely, US equities.

The Most Expensive Stock Market in a Generation

The Shiller CAPE ratio, a measure of US equity valuations based on ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings, is currently sitting above 41. That level has only been seen once before in over 140 years of market history, at the December 1999 dot-com peak, when the ratio reached 44.19 shortly before the index lost roughly half its value over the following two and a half years. The long-run average for this measure sits around 17.3.

Put simply, US equities are trading at their richest valuation in a generation, second only to the single most infamous bubble in modern financial history.

Bitcoin, Meanwhile, Sits Deep Below Its High

Against that backdrop, Bitcoin is currently trading around 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,272, and has printed a confirmed cycle low of $57,800.

That’s an unusual divergence. Historically, when equity markets are this expensive and this late-cycle, Bitcoin has tended to be more correlated to broader risk sentiment than decoupled from it. Right now we have one asset class near the most stretched valuations it has ever recorded, and another sitting in the deepest part of its own drawdown history. That gap is the setup.

Why This Gap Tends to Close

Extreme valuation gaps between asset classes don’t last indefinitely. Capital is not infinite, and when one part of the market becomes this expensive relative to its own history, the marginal dollar of new capital tends to look elsewhere for a home. Historically, some of that capital has found its way into Bitcoin during precisely these kinds of dislocations, particularly once equity valuations start to correct.

We’re not suggesting equities are about to collapse on a specific timeline, or that Bitcoin will automatically benefit the moment they do. What we are pointing out is that a market this expensive, sitting alongside an asset this depressed, has historically been the kind of setup that precedes a rotation of capital rather than a continuation of the status quo.

There’s also a timing pattern worth flagging. In both of the last two major cycles, Bitcoin didn’t turn the same week equities peaked. It lagged behind the equity reference point by a few months before properly igniting into its next major leg. That lag has shown up consistently enough across cycles that we think it’s worth watching closely for this one too, and we break down exactly where we believe we currently sit on that lag in the full report.

What Would Change This View

If US equity valuations continue climbing without correcting, and Bitcoin fails to attract any of the capital rotation this setup would typically suggest, that would be a reason to reassess this thesis. Valuation extremes can persist for longer than feels rational, and a wide gap on its own is not a trigger, only a condition that has historically preceded a shift.

Combined with the drawdown framework from Part 1, the Wyckoff mirror from Part 2, and the cycle low confirmation, this rotation setup adds a macro dimension to a thesis that has, so far, been built mostly from Bitcoin’s own price history.

For the full breakdown behind this framework, read our complete Q3 2026 Outlook report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,006)

PAXG continues to hover just on top of the support zone, with little price action to report as interest in precious metals remains low. The 21 exponential moving average remains the key hurdle and will be another test for PAXG soon as it approaches the key zone. One will have to give.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has had very productive price action. Despite increasing by less than 1%, and what feels like it hasn’t had a large move, it has quietly been grinding higher, flipping momentum and structure back to the bulls.

We can anticipate a retest of $66.8k, the overhead resistance key level…

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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The Tables Turn: Warsh's First Bullish Impact

Tue, 21 Jul 2026 14:08:08 +1000

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We’re taking a short break from the Q3 Outlook series this week (Parts 3 and 4 will land next week) because today’s price action demands the attention instead. Bitcoin is up 4.3% today and back above $65k, its best single day percentage gain since April 13, on the back of comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. It’s the first time his commentary has actually moved all markets higher since he officially took over as Fed Chair back in May.

It’s a good reminder that volatility brings opportunity. Yesterday we covered the hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who warned the Fed shouldn’t repeat the mistake of waiting too long to hike rates, comments that dragged Bitcoin and PAXG lower ahead of the CPI release. Today the story has flipped entirely.

June’s CPI print, released yesterday, came in well under expectations. Economists had pencilled in headline inflation at 3.8% year on year, with the monthly figure expected to fall just 0.1%. Instead, headline inflation dropped 0.4% month on month, the largest single month decline since April 2020, and the annual rate fell all the way to 3.5%. Core inflation was flat on the month too. Coming in that far under consensus is what really propelled markets, taking a lot of heat out of the hike case Waller had been building just a day earlier.

Then came Warsh himself. Testifying before Congress this week (House on Tuesday, Senate today), he kept his usual caution intact, warning lawmakers against reading “mission accomplished” into one month of data. But he paired that with an unusually confident line: “if we get policy right, and we will, the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.” Markets had already rallied hard on the CPI beat, and that line gave the move somewhere to keep going rather than fade. Combined with the softer CPI print, the market’s odds of the Fed holding rates at the July 28 to 29 meeting have jumped sharply in the space of two days.

Put it all together and altcoins are following Bitcoin higher, with traditional markets seeing green across the board too.

We’re not out of the woods though. Oil is continuing its bounce, with the conflict in the Middle East continuing to escalate rather than ease. The naval blockade on Iranian shipping was reinstated just this week. It’s also worth remembering that the CPI print markets are celebrating describes a world that no longer exists by the time it was published. June’s data captured the ceasefire window, before hostilities resumed on July 8 and oil began climbing again. July’s inflation data, the number that will actually reflect this energy shock, is still to come.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,048)

PAXG bounced over 1% due to the bullish appetite that spread throughout markets over the last 24 hours, but it is clear where gold and PAXG stands. Whilst it was green on the day, Bitcoin was up over 4%, equities continued to bounce and hover around all time highs, whilst PAXG is still heavily bearish, with bears continuing to reject price at the 21 exponential moving average, which was seen again overnight.

We can expect PAXG to continue lower and retest the key zone once more.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

After looking like the bears had momentum, the bulls turned the tables and are looking to sustain this move above the key moving average that has been the battleground for the last nine days.

We now turn our attention to the bullish target of $66.8k. This would set in another high, which strengthens the bulls’ control.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Q3 2026 Outlook Breakdown – Part 2: Wyckoff Accumulation and the Psychology of Depression

Tue, 14 Jul 2026 11:33:59 +1000

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In Part 1, we made the data-driven case for why the current drawdown is the accumulation opportunity of the cycle. Today we look at two ideas that reinforce that same case: a chart pattern known as Wyckoff, and what’s known as the Depression phase of a market cycle.

Wyckoff: How Tops and Bottoms Actually Form

Wyckoff describes how large, patient buyers and sellers build or exit positions gradually, rather than all at once. At a market top, big sellers offload slowly, in a range, while price keeps making new highs. Those final highs draw in the most confident buyers of the entire rally, right before the market turns down. That’s what happened at the top of this cycle.

The chart below shows how it played out. Wyckoff gives these moments specific names. There’s a Buying Climax (BC) at $123,236, an Upthrust (UT) at $124,517, and finally an Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the all-time high of $126,272. Shortly after that final push, the bear market began, with price breaking down through $116,381.

Why the Bottom May Be Forming the Same Pattern in Reverse

The theory is that bottoms often mirror tops. Instead of one clean low, you tend to see a series of lows, each one testing whether sellers are exhausted, before the real move higher begins.

Our chart shows exactly this kind of pattern forming right now. There’s a potential Buying Climax equivalent (BC?) at $59,930 and a potential Upthrust equivalent (UT?) at $59,099. The chart flags a UTAD-equivalent as the next stage due to complete this pattern. Since the chart was published, Bitcoin has already printed a new low of $57,800, below both of those earlier levels, which tells us we’re moving deeper into this final stage rather than away from it.

We’re not calling the bottom here. But if the bottom really is mirroring the top the way this chart suggests, then Bitcoin printing a fresh low already puts us further into this final stage than we were when the chart was published, a sign we’re getting closer to the end of this move, not further away from it. At the top, that final push to a new high was the last gasp before everything turned. If the same pattern is playing out at the bottom, the last flush lower could be close.

Being one final leg away doesn’t necessarily mean it happens quickly, though. These final stages can still drag on for weeks or months before they resolve, so being close to the end structurally is not the same as being close in time.

This kind of price action doesn’t happen without matching sentiment. Right now we’re seeing the classic signs of what’s known as the Depression phase, the point in a cycle where belief in the asset drops off almost entirely: dismissive headlines, long-term holders questioning the thesis that got them in, and reduced positive engagement online. That’s not a warning sign so much as a normal part of how bottoms tend to form. The drawdown depths we covered in Part 1, the ones that have historically led to the strongest returns, only happen because sentiment gets this negative first.

Why These Two Things Matter Together

The chart pattern and the poor sentiment aren’t two separate observations. They’re the same underlying process, seen from two different angles. Price action looks this weak because sentiment is this weak, and sentiment is this weak because price action has been genuinely discouraging for some time.

Put together, the case isn’t “buy just because everyone else is fearful.” It’s that this specific combination, a mirrored chart pattern alongside genuinely poor sentiment, has historically shown up right before the stronger entries of the cycle.

For the full breakdown behind this framework, read our complete Q3 2026 Outlook report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($3,991)

Red candles dominated markets last night, with hawkish comments from US Fed Governor Waller around inflation and the possibility of interest rate hikes sooner than expected. Pair that with the conflict in the Middle East escalating once more, and it was a recipe for the bears to claim the day.

PAXG fell over 2% and back below $4,000, retesting the key zone as expected.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

As a result of the bearish factors above, Bitcoin lost over 2% in the last 24 hours and may have started the breakdown we flagged yesterday from the key level at $63.8k. The bears have reclaimed short-term momentum after pushing BTC below all the moving averages.

The downside level to watch for the rest of the week is $60k.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Q3 2026 Outlook Breakdown – Part 1: The Accumulation Window

Mon, 13 Jul 2026 10:27:22 +1000

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Today marks the beginning of our Quarter 3 Outlook breakdown series. Over the coming notes, we’ll be pulling apart the key sections of “The Final Washout”, our comprehensive Q3 report, to walk through the technical, structural, and macro forces we believe are shaping the final leg of this bear market.

We start where every accumulation strategy should: the numbers.

The bigger the drawdown, the better the risk-reward

Bitcoin has confirmed a new cycle low at $57,800, validating the 65% probability call we made in our Q2 Outlook that the bottom was not yet in. But the exact low isn’t really the story. The story is what a drawdown of this depth has historically meant for the risk-reward on offer.

Most people treat a deepening drawdown as a reason for caution. The data says the opposite. The deeper Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high, the better the historical odds and the larger the historical reward, at every time horizon we tested. That’s the definition of an asymmetric opportunity: downside that feels uncomfortable, upside that has been disproportionately larger every time this has played out before.

This is the case for treating current levels as an accumulation zone rather than a level to fear.

Building the case with the data

We backtested every major Bitcoin drawdown going back to January 2013 and measured forward returns from each depth of pain. This is the table that underpins the entire accumulation thesis.

Table: Bitcoin Buy Zone Performance – Verified Historical Backtest (Jan 2013 – Apr 2026)

Bitcoin is currently trading just under $64,000, sitting around 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,272. That puts us squarely in the -50% or worse row, the zone highlighted above, where the 3-year win rate has been 100% and the median 3-year return has been +587%.

The pattern across the whole table is the case in a single glance: as drawdown depth increases, win rate increases and median forward return increases, at every single time horizon. There is no point on this table where going deeper has historically punished the buyer. That is what asymmetric risk-reward actually looks like in the data, not just as a talking point.

Why depth of pain is the opportunity, not the warning sign

Nobody rings a bell at the low. Trying to time the exact tick is a losing game, and we’re not going to pretend otherwise. What the table gives us instead is a way to size conviction against depth of pain. Every 10 percentage points deeper we go, historically, the odds have improved rather than deteriorated.

That’s the opposite of how most people are wired to think about a drawdown. The instinct is to see -50% and feel the risk rising. The data says the risk has actually been falling the whole way down. That gap between what a drawdown feels like and what it has historically meant is the entire basis for treating current levels as an accumulation window with genuinely asymmetric upside, rather than a reason to sit on the sidelines.

What’s Next?

In Part 2, we’ll dig into the structural side of this thesis: the Wyckoff accumulation pattern currently forming, and what the shift into market psychology’s Depression phase tells us about how close we actually are to the end of this leg.

For the full breakdown behind this framework, read our complete Q3 2026 Outlook report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,074)

Last week was red for PAXG, and as it looks to begin the new trading week, we should be keeping an eye on the key support zone the bulls defended well in late June.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

A sideways weekend for Bitcoin as it remains stuck to the key level of $63.8k, flipping above and below it constantly. We look for a resolution this week; the consolidation is likely to come to an end. The bulls do have the slight edge for a breakout from this level rather than a breakdown, but it remains a contested battle.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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It Really Is That Simple

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 10:39:44 +1000

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Mention crypto, or Bitcoin specifically, and most people’s minds go straight to eye-watering drawdowns and wild volatility. Or the response is simpler than that: “I don’t know how to buy it, it seems too complex, so I just avoid it altogether.” In reality, it’s extremely simple.

Yesterday we covered the bear market mirror of ‘22, and the bull market of ‘23-’25 that followed it. That’s one turn of the wheel. Zoom out, and you’ll see we’ve been turning that same wheel since 2014.

If you’ve invested in Bitcoin for any length of time, you’ve heard of the four-year cycle. It’s been the case for Bitcoin’s entire life. The halving cuts new supply in half, a bear market grinds out the excess leverage and weak hands, a pre-bull accumulation phase quietly rebuilds the base, then a bull run takes prices to new highs. Round and round it goes, and so far, it hasn’t missed.

Looking at the chart above, the pattern is almost embarrassingly consistent across every cycle since 2014. Bear, pre-bull, first bull, second bull, repeat. Each bear phase has looked similarly brutal in the moment (2014, 2018 and 2022 all carved out drawdowns of 70-85% from the prior high), and each one has been followed by a recovery that made the drawdown look, in hindsight, like the best entry point of the cycle. We’re living through the 2026 version of that same bear leg right now, and based on where we sit in the pattern, we’re closing in on the end of it. If history holds, this is exactly the point in the cycle where allocating gets rewarded.

So it sounds simple. Mirror the pattern, buy the bear market, hold through to the bull. The cycle keeps disproving its doubters and keeps holding up cycle after cycle. In theory, it really is that easy.

But theory and practice are two very different things.

In practice, this is one of the hardest trades an investor will ever make. It’s easy to look at a chart with the benefit of hindsight and say “buy here.” It’s an entirely different thing to buy when Bitcoin is down 50%+ from its highs, your portfolio is red across the board, and every headline is telling you it’s over this time. This cycle has been no exception: outlets have spent the past month debating whether the ETF era has broken the pattern for good, whether institutional selling means “this time is different.”

That’s the trap. Every cycle has had its own version of “this time is different.” In 2018 it was the ICO bust and exchange collapses. In 2022 it was Terra and FTX. This time it’s ETF outflows and a hawkish Fed. The specific story changes, but the emotional experience of living through it doesn’t. Drawdowns feel existential in real time and look obvious in hindsight, and that gap between how it feels and how it looks later is precisely what makes the trade so hard to execute.

Emotion takes over exactly when discipline matters most. Naysayers get loudest right at the point of maximum opportunity, and stubbornness from the doubters floods the narrative just as conviction is hardest to hold onto. The real challenge was never identifying the pattern. The chart makes that part easy, and it always has. The real challenge is pulling the trigger when every instinct is telling you not to.

The takeaway. The four-year cycle isn’t complicated. What’s complicated is having the discipline to act on it when it counts, in the middle of the drawdown, not after the fact once the discomfort has already passed and the chart has already turned. That discipline, not the pattern itself, is what separates the investors who talk about the cycle from the ones who actually profit from it.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,115)

PAXG bounced over 1% yesterday but quickly met resistance at the 21 exponential moving average, which has been the hurdle since April. Another rejection at this EMA will likely see PAXG fall back to the key zone below at $4,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is still stuck in consolidation just below the key resistance level at $63.8K. The bears attempted to push BTC lower, but the moving averages provided support and flipped BTC back into the green on the day.

The bears are playing strong defence at this level, and it remains the key price level to watch…

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The ETF Tap Turns Back On

Wed, 08 Jul 2026 11:14:49 +1000

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Bitcoin is back above $63K this morning, and money is finally flowing back into the ETFs after weeks of heavy selling.

What happened.

June was the worst month on record for US Bitcoin ETFs. Investors pulled around $4.5 billion out, most of it from BlackRock’s fund (IBIT), the biggest player in the space. The selling ran into July too, with more than a week of straight outflows. That’s the pressure that dragged Bitcoin down to a 21-month low near $57K.

Then it flipped. Weak US jobs numbers raised hopes the Fed will cut interest rates, and money started flowing back into the ETFs, including IBIT, over the following days. Bitcoin has climbed from $57K to $63-64K alongside that shift.

Why it matters.

ETF flows are one of the best real-time signals we have for whether big institutional money is buying or selling Bitcoin. When flows turn positive at the same time price is recovering, it’s a sign the rally has real demand behind it, not just short-term speculation.

The catch.

A few days of inflows doesn’t undo weeks of outflows, and some analysts think part of the recent selling was down to technical trading mechanics rather than a genuine loss of confidence in Bitcoin. The same could be true of this week’s buying. We want to see this trend hold for longer before reading too much into it.

What’s next.

Two dates to watch: US inflation data on 14 July, and the Fed’s next meeting on 28-29 July. A softer inflation print would support more rate cut bets and likely keep the buying going. A hotter number could reverse the mood quickly, just as we saw happen in reverse over the past month.

The bigger picture.

This doesn’t change our core view. We still see this as a bounce within a broader bear market, with $83K remaining the level that would need to break for that picture to change. ETF flows are a useful gauge of sentiment, but they follow price as much as they lead it. Good context, not a signal on its own.

For those not familiar with why $83K is the invalidation level for the bear market, we encourage you to read our newly released Q3 Outlook 2026: The Final Washout.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,098)

PAXG has fallen by 1.40% as the 21 exponential moving average is proving to be a challenge once more for the bulls. If this is yet another rejection then we can expect another retest of $4,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin continues to battle at the key level at $63.8K. The bears are attempting to stop any move higher, whilst the bulls are using the support of the moving average to stop any bearish move back down. We are at a decision point now, with the moving averages sitting right at the key resistance level. One will have to give soon.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Doomsayers Were Right, Just About the Wrong End

Tue, 07 Jul 2026 10:23:03 +1000

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The end is near. That’s what the bears have been saying every step of this cycle, and in a way, they’re right. But the end that’s near isn’t Bitcoin’s, it’s the bear market’s.

A month ago, Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in four years. The market reaction was disproportionate to the size of the sale, and that was the point. Saylor had spent years repeating the “never sell” line, so even a token 32 BTC sale (around $2.5 million) landed as a signal, not a rounding error. Bitcoin fell 20% over the following four days.

Fast forward to last week. Bitcoin had built real momentum off the cycle low, up 10% over five consecutive green days. Then came the disclosure that Strategy had sold again, this time 3,588 BTC to fund dividend payments, over 100 times the size of the first sale. Given what 32 BTC did a month earlier, the market was braced for a much larger reaction. The fall did start, Bitcoin down nearly 4% intraday and back testing $61k.

Until the man with an apparent habit of reversing things stepped in once more. Since returning to the Oval Office, Trump has shown he can move markets on a word, most recently overturning a red card in the FIFA World Cup, and now, seemingly, the Bitcoin market too. Bitcoin recovered and flipped green on the day.

The headlines around Saylor or Trump are noise. What matters is the reaction function. A sale 100x larger than the one that triggered a 20% drawdown a month ago barely dented price by comparison. That shift, from a market that panics on a small disclosure to one that absorbs a much larger one, is the actual data point.

This is what selling exhaustion looks like in practice. When the market stops reacting violently to negative catalysts, it means the marginal seller is running out of size, and the people left holding are less inclined to panic. Fewer active sellers at these levels is typically a late-cycle characteristic, not an early one.

To be clear, a 10%+ bounce off the low is encouraging, but it isn’t confirmation the bear market is over or that the low is in. One green reaction to a large sale doesn’t reverse a multi-month structure on its own. What it does show is that buyers are stepping in during this accumulation window, and that the balance between supply and demand is shifting in a way it wasn’t a month ago.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,156)

PAXG is looking to begin the first step of flipping momentum back to the bulls, with a few daily closures above the 21 exponential moving average (yellow line). In a strong downtrend this often acts as strong resistance, and has done so in this recent downtrend. If this can be sustained, it will complete the first step in flipping the momentum.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

An intraday reversal thanks to the Trump comments, but also a strong technical bounce from the 200 moving averages, propelled Bitcoin above the key resistance level at $63.8k. Now flipped into support, this move needs to be sustained to continue the current bounce higher.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Your Wish Has Been Granted

Thu, 02 Jul 2026 10:53:43 +1000

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Some may question why we are talking about greed when the market sits in a state of extreme fear. But this is exactly when it matters most. Back in February, we discussed the hidden greed of bear markets, the kind that surfaces when we are deep in a drawdown and price is sitting at generational buying opportunities.

Cast your mind back to 2022. Bitcoin traded around $20k for months. Smart money was buying. Yes, price fell another 30% to $15k, but even that was not low enough for some. They held out for $12k, a level that never came. Many of those people either stayed sidelined for good or were forced to buy higher once the move away began. The ones who did buy through that zone are the ones now sitting on generational returns.

As we have been covering in our Morning Notes lately, Bitcoin has entered a period of accumulation, a window where risk to reward is heavily skewed in favour of those with conviction. This is where the real returns get made.

Bitcoin at $60k or below is 50% off its all-time high. This is smart money accumulation territory. The difference between buying now and waiting for $50k is marginal, and it is simply not worth the risk of missing this level altogether if it never comes.

Rewind just nine months, to when Bitcoin was trading at $120k. If you had asked anyone looking to buy, “would you like to get Bitcoin at $60k?”, the answer was obvious. It was the same wish we heard from clients constantly: “I wish I had bought when Bitcoin was at $50k... $70k... $90k, pick a number.” That wish has now been granted. The opportunity is here. The only question left is whether you follow through.

One more thing worth noting: if you bought at the top around $120k, you are underwater, and that is fine, especially with a long term view. This is a prime opportunity to heavily dollar cost average. With just half the capital you originally deployed at the highs, you can bring your average entry price all the way down to the midpoint, from $120k to $90k. Deploy more, and that average keeps improving from there.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,043)

As expected, the key zone at $4,000 continues to provide support for PAXG as it has thwarted another move from the bears to attempt to push it lower. As identified previously, this could be a zone to set up a base for a potential reversal.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin bounced nearly 2.5% yesterday and was up nearly 5% intraday, but the bears quickly reminded everyone who was in charge with a sharp rejection and stopped any sustained move above the key level of $60.1k paired with the 200 moving averages.

This rejection by the bears has strengthened their control as they look to set yet another lower low to end the week.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Rake Review: June 2026

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 17:53:59 +1000

When the Noise Became the Signal

June 2026 did not whisper. The world's biggest IPO sucked billions out of risk assets, Michael Saylor broke his four-year vow and sold Bitcoin for the first time, a new Fed Chair signalled rates may go higher before they go lower, and Bitcoin posted its worst monthly performance since the Luna/Terra collapse of 2022. For once, the noise and the signal were pointing in exactly the same direction.

The Biggest IPO Just Happened and Bitcoin Paid for It

Most people outside of finance have heard of SpaceX. Elon Musk's rocket company, responsible for sending astronauts to the International Space Station and building the Starlink satellite internet network, has for years been one of the most talked about private companies in the world. In June, it stopped being private. On June 12, SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker SPCX, raising $75 billion in what became the largest stock market debut in history. For context, the previous record was held by Saudi Aramco, which raised around $25 billion when it went public in 2019. SpaceX more than tripled it.

The excitement was enormous. Investor orders to buy shares exceeded $250 billion, roughly four times the amount SpaceX was actually selling, meaning the vast majority of people who tried to get in at the IPO price were turned away. The stock gained 19% on its first day and briefly pushed SpaceX's total value past $2 trillion. So what does any of this have to do with Bitcoin?

When a company raises $75 billion from investors, that money has to come from somewhere. Investors, both everyday people and large institutions, had to sell other things they owned to free up cash to buy SpaceX shares. And one of the assets people sold to raise that cash was Bitcoin. SpaceX effectively became a liquidity black hole, drawing risk capital that would otherwise have stayed in digital assets. This is called capital rotation, and it is one of the main reasons Bitcoin fell so heavily through June.

There is a twist worth knowing about. SpaceX's public filing revealed the company holds 18,712 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, worth approximately $1.29 billion. That makes SpaceX one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin in the world. The company that caused so much selling pressure in Bitcoin actually owns a significant amount of it. Every person who bought a SpaceX share in June now has indirect Bitcoin exposure, whether they realise it or not. And as SpaceX gets added to major stock market indices, thousands of index funds and pension funds that buy the stock will also be indirectly buying Bitcoin through SpaceX's treasury.

The deeper issue for Bitcoin this month was not just the money leaving, it was the attention leaving. SpaceX offered investors rockets, global internet, and artificial intelligence all in one stock. In a market where people chase whatever is exciting, Bitcoin simply cannot match the fresh story around SpaceX. For the better part of two years, Bitcoin was the most exciting trade in markets. That crown has been passed, at least for now, to AI stocks and space companies. SpaceX itself pulled back sharply after its debut, falling from an intraday high of $225 to around $153 by the end of the month, but by then the damage to Bitcoin sentiment had already been done.

The longer term picture is more positive, and there is a concrete reason for that. Capital rotation works in both directions. The same investors who sold Bitcoin to buy SpaceX shares will eventually look for the next opportunity, and Bitcoin, sitting at multi-month lows and testing its most historically significant long term support level, will be difficult to ignore. The IPO frenzy that hurt Bitcoin in June is temporary. The 18,712 Bitcoin now sitting on SpaceX's balance sheet, quietly embedded inside thousands of index funds and pension portfolios around the world, is permanent.

The Saylor Thesis Meets Gravity

If you have spent any time following Bitcoin over the past few years, you will have heard of Michael Saylor. He is the co-founder and executive chairman of a company called Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, and he has built one of the most recognisable positions in crypto by doing one thing relentlessly: buying Bitcoin with every dollar he can get his hands on.

Strategy does not mine Bitcoin. It does not run an exchange. Its entire identity, since 2020, has been to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible and hold it forever. To fund those purchases, the company has raised billions of dollars by issuing shares and debt products to investors. The pitch has always been simple: Bitcoin goes up over time, and owning a lot of it, acquired with borrowed and raised capital, produces extraordinary returns.

June tested that pitch.

On June 1, Strategy revealed it had sold 32 Bitcoin for approximately $2.5 million. It was the first time the company had sold any Bitcoin in four years. Now, 32 Bitcoin is not a lot. Strategy still held 843,706 coins after the sale, making it a fraction of a percent of their total position. But Saylor had said publicly, many times, that he would never sell. The moment he did, even a tiny amount, people started asking questions.

The reason for the sale was to pay a dividend to investors in one of Strategy's financial products, called STRC. This is essentially a type of investment that Strategy sells to raise cash, promising regular dividend payments in return. As Strategy has taken on more of these obligations, the bills have grown. Annual dividend payments have risen from around $300 million at the start of 2026 to $1.2 billion today, while the company's cash reserves have fallen 38% over the same period.

At the same time, Bitcoin's price has dropped well below what Strategy paid for most of its coins. The average price Strategy paid across its entire Bitcoin holding is around $75,500 per coin. With Bitcoin trading in the low $60,000s through much of June, the company is sitting on an unrealised loss of approximately $10.6 billion. That does not mean Strategy is in immediate trouble, unrealised losses are paper losses until you sell, but it does mean the financial pressure is real and growing.

Saylor's public response was to post on X: "Volatility tests every capital structure. Strategy remains focused on Bitcoin, disciplined capital allocation, credit quality, and long term value creation." Characteristically unfazed. His supporters point out that Strategy survived a worse situation in 2022, when Bitcoin fell below $16,000, and never had to sell. His critics point out that the company's obligations are significantly larger today than they were back then.

The honest answer is that nobody knows exactly how this plays out. If Bitcoin recovers strongly in the second half of 2026, Strategy's balance sheet improves quickly and the concerns fade. If Bitcoin stays flat or falls further, the pressure to sell coins to meet obligations becomes harder to ignore, and a forced sale from the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder would create significant additional selling in the market.

There is one further development worth watching. Saylor has long positioned Strategy as a Bitcoin-only vehicle, but the financial pressure building on the balance sheet may force a rethink of that mandate. Speculation is growing that Strategy could begin diversifying its treasury into other hard assets, with gold the most likely candidate. If that happens, it would represent a significant shift in the Strategy story, and a tacit acknowledgement that a single-asset treasury model carries more risk than the narrative has historically admitted.

What June made clear is that the easy part of the Saylor trade is behind us. The thesis is not broken. Bitcoin has recovered from worse, and Strategy has survived deeper drawdowns than this one. But the risks are now visible in a way they were not twelve months ago, and visible risks have a habit of demanding attention before they resolve. The second half of 2026 will go a long way toward determining whether June was the moment the thesis was tested, or the moment it began to crack.

Price Performance: Breaking Down the Worst Month Since 2022

June broke what had been building for the majority of the year the classic bear market pattern known as the bear flag. This was the worst month for Bitcoin since June 2022, with Bitcoin losing nearly 19% from the open of the month to the close.

The month kicked off with a confirmed break of the bear flag, which triggered the next leg lower and the sustained bearish price action we saw throughout June. A major driver of sentiment this month was Michael Saylor and Strategy. When Strategy disclosed it had sold 32 Bitcoin the first sale in four years it shattered the narrative that Saylor was an unconditional, never sell accumulator. The market had priced Strategy as a permanent demand floor. The moment that assumption broke, confidence cracked with it, and the selling accelerated.

With the bears clearly in control, the bear flag pattern targets the mid to low $50,000 region as the next area of interest.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/4e3Du4wC/

Despite June historically being one of Bitcoin's stronger months averaging an 8.24% return across nine green Junes in the last 16 years this year told a very different story, and one with a familiar feel.

June 2022 was also Bitcoin's worst month of that year, occurring in the aftermath of the Luna Terra collapse in May 2022, which was the first major blow of the previous bear market. This June drew extreme parallels to that period. The Luna collapse came seven months after Bitcoin's prior all time high. The current June drawdown has come eight months after the October 2025 all time high of $128,198. When the prior June collapse occurred, the market was closer to the end of the bear market than the beginning and that is what we are anticipating to be the case now.

We go much deeper into the outlook for the next few months in the Stormrake Q3 2026 Outlook, which you can find in the section below.

In the News

Stormrake Quarter 3 Outlook: The Final Washout

We have just released our Stormrake Quarter 3 2026 Outlook, titled 'The Final Washout'. The report covers the next three months of Bitcoin price action, where we think Bitcoin is headed, what is likely to drive it, and where we believe we currently sit in the broader market cycle. If you have been following Bitcoin through what has been a brutal June and want to understand what comes next, this is the place to start. You can find the full report in the section here. It is a must read for those looking to accumulate Bitcoin at a discount…

Read the Full Outlook Here

The US Iran War Is Winding Down And Oil Is Feeling It

Earlier this year, US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes. Brent crude surged from around $72 per barrel at the outset of the conflict to above $118 by late April, pushing inflation higher and forcing central banks to shelve any near term plans to cut interest rates. June brought meaningful relief. On June 18, the US and Iran signed an interim peace agreement, and oil prices fell sharply, with Brent dropping back toward $77 per barrel. By June 24, WTI had fallen below $70 per barrel for the first time since the war began. The ceasefire remains fragile and a permanent deal is far from done, but the direction of travel is positive. For Bitcoin, falling oil means falling inflation, which means the path to interest rate cuts reopens and cheaper money has historically been one of the most reliable tailwinds Bitcoin has ever had.

The New Fed Chair Just Made His First Call and It Was Not What Trump Wanted

Trump replaced Jerome Powell with Kevin Warsh in May 2026, widely expecting a more rate cut friendly Fed. On June 17, Warsh chaired his first meeting and voted unanimously to hold rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. The bigger story was what came alongside it. Nine of the 18 voting members now support a rate hike before the end of 2026, a sharp reversal from March, when not a single policymaker had pencilled one in. Warsh also scrapped the Fed's longstanding practice of forward guidance, removing any hint of where rates are heading next. Stocks fell immediately after the statement dropped. For Bitcoin, the message is simple: rate cuts historically one of the strongest tailwinds for crypto have been pushed even further down the road.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in June 2026:

Bitcoin lost 19% in June.
Ethereum fell by 21% in June.
Hyperliquid created a new all time high at $76.70 but since retraced 20%.
PAX Gold lost 12% in June.
The total crypto market cap fell by 17%.

Video of the month

Sovereignty Brief Ep 1 -Who's holding your keys?

Bisher Khudeira and Michael Milmeister

Education: The 200 Week Moving Average

If you have been following Bitcoin through June, you will have seen a lot of commentary about something called the 200 week moving average. It has been mentioned constantly, and for good reason, Bitcoin spent much of this month right on top of it. So what is it, and why does everyone care so much?

Let's start simple. A moving average is just the average price of something over a set period of time. If you wanted to know Bitcoin's average price over the last ten days, you would add up the closing price from each of those days and divide by ten. That gives you a number, the average. Do the same calculation every day, updating it as new prices come in, and you get a line on a chart that smooths out the daily ups and downs and shows you the general direction things are heading.

The 200 week moving average does exactly that, but instead of using daily prices, it uses weekly prices, and instead of ten periods, it uses 200. That means it is calculating the average price of Bitcoin across the last 200 weeks, which works out to nearly four years of data in a single number.

Because it covers so much history, the line moves very slowly. It does not react to Bitcoin having a bad day, or even a bad month. It only really shifts when Bitcoin has been going in a particular direction for a long time. That makes it one of the most reliable tools for understanding where Bitcoin sits in its long term cycle, as opposed to its short term noise.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/b3xm73ie/

On June 4, Bitcoin tagged this line for the first time in this current cycle, with the moving average sitting near $62,600. That is why June felt significant to a lot of people watching the market. It was not just another bad month, it was Bitcoin arriving at the level that has historically signalled a floor.

The important thing to understand is that the 200 week moving average is not a guarantee. It is a pattern, not a rule. After breaching the line in June 2022, Bitcoin spent roughly 16 months below it before recovering. Touching it does not automatically mean the bottom is in. What it does mean is that Bitcoin has entered the kind of territory where, historically, patient long term buyers have been rewarded.

The cleanest signal to watch for is a weekly candle closing back above the line after touching it. That reclaim, price dipping to the average and then recovering above it, is what has marked the start of the next recovery in previous cycles.

For anyone who is relatively new to Bitcoin and feeling anxious watching the price sit in the high $50,000s and low $60,000s, the 200 week moving average is the context that matters most right now. It is not a reason to panic. If anything, it is the level where the most experienced long term holders in the market tend to get interested.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Disclaimer

Onchain Series Part IV: Reserve Risk: The Conviction of Long-Term Holders

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 15:45:08 +1000

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Reserve Risk is the metric that ties this series together. Where the previous three looked at valuation, sentiment and miner behaviour, Reserve Risk looks at the people who matter most in a bear market: the long-term holders who have chosen not to sell.

The concept behind it is straightforward. When Bitcoin’s price is high and long-term holders are still refusing to sell, the opportunity cost of holding is significant. That confidence relative to price creates high Reserve Risk, and historically that has corresponded to cycle tops. When price is low and long-term holders continue to hold through the pain, that same confidence exists but at a fraction of the price. The risk of entering the market at that point is low relative to the potential reward. That is low Reserve Risk, and it is where the most asymmetric returns in Bitcoin’s history have been captured.

Reading the chart is simple. When Reserve Risk enters the upper red band, the risk of holding or buying is historically high and the market has tended to be near a major top. When it drops to the bottom of the lower green band, the inverse is true: long-term holders are accumulating under stress, and the market has historically been near a major bottom.

The chart makes this clear. Reserve Risk is currently sitting at the bottom of the green zone, at levels that have only been reached a handful of times across Bitcoin’s entire history. Each prior instance, without exception, has been followed by a significant recovery in price.

That does not mean the bottom is confirmed. As we have said throughout this series, there is still a reasonable probability of further downside before this cycle completes its final leg. But the signal Reserve Risk is sending is unambiguous: long-term holders are not panicking. They are holding. And they are doing so at a price level where the risk of being in the market is historically low.

This is the fourth metric in this series, and the fourth one telling the same story. The MVRV Z-Score showed the market is statistically undervalued. NUPL showed sentiment is deteriorating into fear. The Puell Multiple showed miners are under stress. Reserve Risk shows long-term holders are holding firm regardless. Four independent lenses, one consistent conclusion: we are in the accumulation zone. The bottom may not be in, but we are close enough that waiting on the sidelines carries its own risk.

The series is complete. The data has spoken.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,017)

PAXG lost over 1% in the last 24 hours and is now beginning the retest of the key zone. We expect buying and support at this level, and if there is a place for the trend to reverse, it is here.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

The bulls are showing they are up for the fight, reclaiming the key level at $60,100. This level is now critical in determining the next move: either another attempt at a rally or further downside continuation.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.