Stormrake - Insights #Altseason

The Rake Review: December 2025

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 09:26:00 +1100

2025: A Year in Review

As people unwrap their gifts this holiday season, it's time to reflect on a year that didn’t go as many had hoped. While Bitcoin is likely to close 2025 in the red, it has been far from a wasted year. Quiet wins, foundational progress, macro shifts have quietly taken shape and may set the stage for what comes next. Compared to many other assets, Bitcoin may now be undervalued, not just relative to its own history, but within the broader macro environment.

Rather than the usual monthly Rake Review, we’re taking a deeper dive into the year that was.

January: Trump Returns

One of the biggest stories from 2024 became reality in January as Donald Trump was officially inaugurated and returned to the White House. The bullish sentiment surrounding his return saw risk on assets push higher, with Bitcoin setting its first all time high of the year just shy of $110K.

Optimism spread quickly. Trump introduced the Crypto Task Force within the SEC and Gary Gensler stepped down as chair. He was replaced by Paul Atkins, a long-time critic of Gensler's anti-crypto stance and far more favourable towards the space.

February: The Month of Rumours

The bullish tone continued, but headlines shifted. February was dominated by speculation and two major narratives emerged. First, rumours surrounding sweeping new tariffs from Trump's economic agenda began to circulate and started to weigh on risk markets. Second, the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve began to build. It was still unconfirmed, but momentum was growing.

March: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Confirmed

March may go down as one of the most important months in Bitcoin’s history. The US Government officially announced the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. While Bitcoin had previously been adopted by countries like El Salvador and Argentina, the involvement of the US brought a level of legitimacy the space had never seen.

This move did not just validate Bitcoin to institutions and retail investors. It integrated Bitcoin into global government strategy.

April: Markets Liberated

Tariff speculation finally turned into reality. April 3 became known as Liberation Day. Trump announced tariffs on 185 countries, with a base 10 % applied to most and higher rates for others. The result was a broad selloff across markets. Bitcoin fell to $75K and the S&P 500 also posted its yearly low.

The fear was short lived. Markets rebounded and Bitcoin kicked off a seven week bullish streak.

May: Sell in May and Go Away?

That phrase has been passed around for years, but it did not apply in 2025. Bitcoin extended its rally and set a new all time high at $112K. This came as US debt surged past $37 trillion and confidence in the traditional system continued to erode. Investors rotated out of the dollar and into hard assets, with Bitcoin one of the biggest beneficiaries.

June: Middle East Conflict

Just as momentum was building, geopolitical tensions flared. Conflict between Iran and Israel rattled risk markets. A brief pullback followed, but it did not last long.

By the end of H1, Bitcoin was up over 15 % for the year, the S&P 500 had gained 5.5 %, gold was up 26 % and silver had climbed 25 %.

July: Regulatory Wins and Momentum

With conflicts easing and tariffs temporarily paused, July saw another push higher. Bitcoin hit a new all time high at $123K.

The month was also defined by major wins on the regulation front. The first Crypto Week was held in Washington and three key bills passed through Congress — the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act and Anti-CBDC Act. The GENIUS Act was signed into law, providing stablecoin regulation and clearer crypto guidelines. While not directly tied to Bitcoin, it gave broader confidence to the entire crypto space.

The first whispers of altseason began to surface.

August: Ethereum Runs and Executive Order Signed

Momentum carried through into August. Bitcoin pushed just above July’s high at $124K, but this time it was Ethereum that took centre stage.

Institutional accumulation was the dominant narrative. Spot ETF flows into ETH were at their highest since launch. Ethereum reached a new all time high just shy of $5,000, its first in nearly four years.

Another big win for Bitcoin came with an executive order that allowed digital assets to be included in 401K retirement accounts. A major step forward for adoption in the US.

September: Rate Cuts and Decentralised Momentum

September has historically been Bitcoin’s worst month. In 2025, price held steady, setting up a potential fourth quarter rally.

DeFi took the spotlight. Decentralised exchanges hit record volume. Hyperliquid continued to dominate until Aster arrived and quickly became a serious competitor.

Macro-wise, the US saw its first rate cut of the year. Signs that quantitative tightening was coming to an end, and liquidity was starting to return. A key turning point for risk markets.

October: New High and the 10/10 Crash

The month began with strength. Bitcoin hit a new all time high at $126K in the first week.

Then came October 10.

Trump issued a surprise tariff threat on China, this time at 100%. Markets sold off sharply. A stablecoin depegged on Binance, market makers were caught offside and Bitcoin crashed from $117K to $102K. Some altcoins dropped more than 80 % in less than 30 minutes.

Close to $20 billion was wiped in liquidations. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen over 30 % and is now red on the year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has recovered and gone on to set new highs.

November: Yen Pressure Returns

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/qB3DMMni/

The main story in November was once again Japan. Last year, it was a surprise rate hike. This year, it was surging bond yields that triggered another potential unwind of the yen carry trade, with both the 10-year and 30-year yields hitting their highest levels since the turn of the century.

Rising borrowing costs forced institutions to exit risk on positions, including crypto. Bitcoin came under pressure as a result.

Still, there was a silver lining. The US Federal Reserve officially announced the end of quantitative tightening. It did not spark a rally, but it laid the groundwork for future expansion.

December: Metals Take the Lead

Bitcoin was flat in December, with little interest in risk. The Fed cut rates, the BOJ raised them, and the effects cancelled each other out.

Instead, all eyes were on commodities. The Fed announced it would begin buying $40 billion in Treasuries. The first taste of quantitative easing. Gold continued to climb to new highs on daily closes, and silver surged 45 % for the month.

Bitcoin sat idle. But historically, metals lead the way and risk follows. That rotation may arrive early in 2026.

What Does This Mean for 2026?

There is no hiding from the fact that Bitcoin has underperformed in 2025. But it was a year of progress, development and structural change.

We saw:

Multiple all time highs
The creation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Pro crypto legislation signed into law
A crypto friendly SEC and White House
Expanded access to Bitcoin through retirement plans
The end of tightening and early stages of monetary easing

All of this came alongside a red year for Bitcoin and currently 30% down from its all time high. Expectations are more grounded going into 2026. No calls for blow off tops or vertical rallies. But given the policy backdrop and recent correction, Bitcoin looks far closer to a bottom than a top. The groundwork has been laid throughout the year, and whilst not reflected in the price performance of Bitcoin, it has been invaluable for the long term health and performance for Bitcoin…

At current levels, it is fair to say Bitcoin is undervalued.

Stormrake 2026 Bitcoin Thesis:

Stormrake expects Bitcoin to trade materially higher in 2026, with a base case range of $180,000 to $250,000. The drivers are not speculative narratives, but balance sheet stress, sovereign refinancing pressure, and structurally limited supply.

Roughly $7 trillion in US debt matures in Q1 (and over a third of all US debt to mature in 2026). It must be refinanced at meaningfully higher yields, pushing interest expense near defence-level spending. Policy is no longer about inflation or employment. It is about fiscal survival. Bitcoin benefits not from collapse, but from visible refinancing stress and the constraints it places on monetary tools.

Liquidity is returning, not through headline QE, but quietly via repo facilities, yield curve interventions, and regulatory nudges. The Fed is already injecting billions through overnight repo. That liquidity is flowing into scarce assets. Bitcoin absorbs it faster each cycle.

Post-halving supply is negligible. ETF flows are steady. Institutions are allocating gradually.

Corporate treasuries and long-term holders are reducing float. 2026 is not about euphoria. It is about absorption.

Risks remain. A failed Treasury auction, prolonged high rates, or renewed regulation can delay upside. But in every stress case, the long-term thesis holds. Bitcoin is not pricing perfection. It is pricing policy distortion and fiscal constraint.

Bitcoin in 2026 is not competing with tech stocks or altcoins. It is competing with sovereign credibility. Volatility is the cost. Scarcity is the payoff.

Video of the month:

Michael Saylor Keynote | Bitcoin MENA 2025

Education: Beyond Price: On-Chain Metrics That Matter

Most Bitcoin investors only look at price as a way to measure value and decide whether to enter or exit a position. But there is much more to Bitcoin than just price, especially when it comes to evaluating where we are in the cycle. This is where on-chain data comes in, helping to assess Bitcoin’s true value based on investor behaviour, holding patterns and capital flow.

Here are three of the key on-chain metrics we use to better understand Bitcoin's value. Each provides a different lens on sentiment, valuation, and cycle timing.

MVRV Z-Score: Market Value to Realized Value

MVRV Z-Score is a chart that uses blockchain data to highlight when Bitcoin is significantly over or undervalued compared to its historical fair value.

It’s based on three components:

Market Cap (black line)
Realised Value (blue line), not the current Bitcoin price. This is calculated by taking the price at which each Bitcoin last moved (wallet to wallet), then averaging those prices and multiplying by the total circulating supply
Z-Score (orange line), a standard deviation measure that identifies extreme differences between Market Cap and Realised Value

Source: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/

On the chart, the green band near ~0.10 represents undervaluation and typically aligns with cycle bottoms. The red band around ~7 indicates overvaluation and has historically marked cycle tops. When Bitcoin enters either band, a top or bottom has usually followed within two weeks.

Right now, the Z-Score sits below 1, signalling that Bitcoin is undervalued and still trending lower. If the price continues to drop, the Z-Score will likely follow. Should it enter the green band, this would suggest a bottom is near and historically has offered generational accumulation opportunities.

Short Term Holder Realised Price:

Understanding Sentiment Through Recent Buyers

This metric reflects the average price that Bitcoin has been moved on-chain within the past 155 days. Anyone holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days is considered a short term holder.

Short term holders are more reactive to market volatility. They are more likely to sell during corrections and are typically driven by short term sentiment. This metric gives us a clear picture of whether recent buyers are in profit or in drawdown.

Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/sth-realized-price/

The chart shows Bitcoin price (yellow line) against the short term holder realised price (green line). When price is above the STH realised price, it indicates a bullish market as these holders are in profit. When price is below, it signals bearish sentiment as they are in loss.

Currently, the STH realised price sits around $99.7K, while Bitcoin is trading at $87K. That gap highlights a clear sentiment shift. Short term holders are under pressure, which explains the weak price action and overall bearish tone.

This metric is not only useful for sentiment. It also often acts as a dynamic support or resistance level during different phases of the cycle.

Long Term Holder Supply:

Tracking Smart Money Accumulation and Distribution

Long term holder supply refers to the total Bitcoin supply held by wallets that have not moved their coins for at least 155 days.

Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-holder-supply/

In the chart, Bitcoin price is shown by the orange line, and long term holder supply is represented by the green area. This metric helps us see when long term holders are accumulating or distributing their coins, and it usually leads price action.

Long term holder supply tends to peak just before Bitcoin price tops. This is when early investors begin distributing. It also tends to bottom around Bitcoin’s price peak, as new long term holders accumulate during bear markets. An increase in long term holder supply after a correction typically signals the early stages of a new cycle.

Currently, LTH supply sits around 14.1 million, the lowest since 2021, after peaking in June. That peak occurred just months before Bitcoin’s current all time high at $126K. If this supply begins to increase again, it would confirm that the cycle top is in, and accumulation is once again underway.

These are just three of many useful metrics that go beyond simple price analysis. Together, they help identify whether Bitcoin is undervalued, measure market sentiment, and give clues as to where we are in the cycle.

As it stands:

MVRV Z-Score suggests Bitcoin is undervalued
STH Realised Price shows short term sentiment is bearish
LTH Supply points to a potential cycle top already in

All three tell a story that Bitcoin may be in a bottoming phase. These metrics should be tracked regularly as they are often early signals of where Bitcoin could go next.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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The Rake Review: November 2025

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 13:32:32 +1100

November Brought Bearish Price Action but Macro Tailwinds Are Building

Just last month we saw all time highs. Now, one of Bitcoin’s largest buyers has paused its accumulation, bear market signals have triggered, and sentiment has turned. But despite all of this, several key factors suggest this market may be fundamentally different from those we’ve seen before.

Bitcoin Enters a New Macro Era

Since Bitcoin's inception it has followed a recurring pattern centred around the halving events, commonly referred to as the four year cycle. Historically this cycle has consisted of three years of bullishness followed by one extreme year of a bear market, often marked by an 80% drawdown. But this time, it is different?

New fundamental drivers that were not present in previous cycles have changed the structure entirely. Relentless buying from newly launched spot crypto ETFs, the emergence of Bitcoin treasury strategies from corporates, and most importantly sovereign accumulation of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset have all supported the bullish phase of this cycle. These factors are the reason many are starting to question whether the four year cycle is still relevant.

However, those who focus on historical signals still have reason to believe the cycle remains intact.

We are now exactly 36 months from Bitcoin's last cycle bottom, which lines up with previous timeframes. Bitcoin has retraced over 30% from its all time high, ETF inflows have slowed, and MicroStrategy has ended its six week Bitcoin buying streak.

The big question now being asked across the market is simple, how low can Bitcoin go?

Classic bear market signals have reappeared. Historically these have marked the beginning of prolonged drawdowns and crypto winters. Bitcoin's near 30% retrace from its October high has triggered a collapse in sentiment. Retail investors have begun panic selling at a loss after buying earlier in the year.

The Fear & Greed Index has remained in extreme fear territory for almost the entire month, with only a couple of short lived breaks above it. This level of sustained pessimism has only been seen a few times before, mid 2022 after Luna collapsed, mid 2021 during a 50% retrace from all time highs, and the March 2020 Covid crash when Bitcoin was at $3K.

While fear dominates the market, this is often where the greatest opportunities lie. For those who understand the fundamentals and look past short term price movements, the current environment looks less like the middle of a bear cycle and more like a major setup for the next move higher. Structural forces are now more relevant than cycle theory alone.

Bitcoin is an asset that thrives on liquidity. It performs best when money is flowing into the economy and people are spending. That happens when interest rates are low or when monetary stimulus returns. So far this year the US has only delivered one rate cut, fewer than most had anticipated. Markets are now pricing in a second cut in December which would bring the 2025 total to two.

Looking ahead to 2026, current probabilities give a 65% chance of at least three cuts next year. Lower borrowing costs would bring more liquidity to the system, which is supportive for Bitcoin.

Interest rates are only one part of the equation. The Federal Reserve also has a major influence through its balance sheet policies. Quantitative tightening drains liquidity from the market and generally weighs on risk assets. Easing does the opposite. Since June 2022 the Fed has been in a tightening phase but as of December 1 that has officially ended. While easing is not expected to begin immediately, the pivot has started and 2026 could see that shift begin in full.

Despite this tightening regime Bitcoin has performed strongly since mid 2022. A shift back to easing would only accelerate the next phase of growth.

These two macro drivers, increasing liquidity and looser monetary policy into 2026, are likely to shape the path ahead. The question now is which narrative will win out: the historic four year cycle or the fundamentally driven macro regime that is now taking centre stage?

The Hidden Hands Moving the Market

For most of Bitcoin’s life governments and large institutions were openly against it. It traded on its own path, following its own internal cycle, as mentioned earlier. But as the asset has matured, it has become increasingly tied to traditional markets and more sensitive to the influence of macroeconomic and political events.

As many of you already know, this year’s price action has been heavily shaped by macroeconomic forces, central bank decisions, and institutional positioning. From the US government’s creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to rising global trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions, external factors are no longer just noise, they are core drivers. But this month, we saw a return of something that had not impacted markets for over a year: the US government shutdown.

The longest government shutdown in US history is now over. What began in September ended this month in November, and once again it disrupted broader markets, including Bitcoin. During the 43 day shutdown, several key government functions were suspended. The Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to release critical economic data, leaving the Federal Reserve without the information it typically relies on to guide interest rate decisions. That kind of uncertainty causes hesitation among policymakers and creates nervousness in markets. For assets like Bitcoin, which historically struggle during periods of uncertainty, the effects were felt almost immediately.

The shutdown also had a direct impact on the Treasury General Account, which is responsible for distributing government funds. Between 60 to 70 million Americans were affected, including those receiving food stamps, government contractors, and essential workers. The lack of distributed funds meant that many households were forced to sell assets to meet basic needs. With over $1 trillion sitting idle in the TGA, this disruption removed a major source of liquidity from the market.

Many new investors might overlook the connection between political gridlock and market performance, but these events play a much larger role than most realise. And it is not just the United States driving these dynamics. Japan is just as critical, if not more so, to the global risk asset trade.

Japan is widely seen as the cheap credit engine of the global economy. Institutional investors including banks, hedge funds, and asset managers often borrow yen at ultra low interest rates to invest in higher yielding assets elsewhere. This is known as the Yen Carry Trade. It works as long as interest rates in Japan remain low and bond yields do not rise. But when those yields start climbing unexpectedly, it increases the cost of borrowing, and the trade begins to unwind.

We saw this carry trade unwind mid last year, and signs of it have reappeared this month. During the last unwind Bitcoin dropped 30% as institutions rapidly sold assets to cover yen liabilities. This month Japanese bond yields moved higher again, triggering a similar reaction. That unwinding pressure has been a major driver behind Bitcoin’s poor performance in November.

Both the US shutdown and the yen carry trade are examples of structural market dynamics that most retail investors miss. These are the kind of headlines that many gloss over, without realising how deeply they affect Bitcoin’s price. So while many are focused on the daily chart or waiting for a bounce, the real pressure is coming from much higher up the chain.

November Falls Flat as December Takes the Spotlight

November has historically been Bitcoin's strongest month for average returns, coming in at 40.5% over the last 14 years. But this time around, it did not live up to the hype. Instead of another blockbuster close, Bitcoin finished the month down 17.5%, its second worst November in the last 15 years.

Not only did November close red, but the drawdown also flipped Bitcoin negative for the year. That outcome would have been unthinkable to most if you told them at the start of 2025. The shift has caught many off guard and added another layer of pressure to December.

So now the focus turns to December, and whether it can break the streak of red months, close the year green, and give bulls some momentum heading into 2026. Historically December has delivered an average return of 8.42%, but it has been more of a coin flip in reality, with only seven out of the last fourteen Decembers closing green.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/mT1FubUm/

The chart above highlights the current technical outlook. November only compounded the bearish structure that took hold in October. Bears remain in control of both momentum and market structure, driving lower highs and lower lows and pushing Bitcoin back to levels not seen since April.

From an open just under $110K, Bitcoin dropped as low as $80K and closed at $90K. That kind of range reinforces the idea that this is still a market under pressure. Even if we apply December’s historical average return to current price action, Bitcoin would close the year around $98K, enough to flip 2025 green, but likely not enough to reverse the broader bearish structure or momentum trend.

So for bulls to take back control, it would take a clear breakout and performance that exceeds the historical average.

If the bears remain in charge, we could easily retest April’s yearly low at $74.5K, a level hit on Trump’s Liberation Day earlier this year. That remains a key line to watch on the downside.

December will also be a major month in the macro space. All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, both of which have the power to move markets in either direction. The Fed will decide on interest rates on December 10, with current odds showing an 88% chance of a 25 basis point cut. That move is likely already priced in but would still be supportive for Bitcoin.

The Bank of Japan is also in focus due to rising yields and the potential unwinding of the yen carry trade. Current probabilities give a 53% chance of no change and a 47% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The last time we saw an unexpected hike from the BOJ, the yen carry trade unwound and Bitcoin dropped 30% within a week.

Both central banks will play major roles in shaping December’s market conditions, and Bitcoin will be reacting to every move.

In the News:

Strategy May Consider Selling Bitcoin:

One of the most well known Bitcoin bulls, Michael Saylor's company Strategy, may now be facing pressure to make a decision that was once considered off the table. CEO Phong Le has stated that the firm would consider selling some of its Bitcoin, but only as a last resort.

This would only happen if Strategy’s stock (MSTR, market cap $50.9B) trades below a 1x multiple of its Bitcoin Net Asset Value, currently sitting at 1.19, and if the company fails to attract fresh capital.

The multiple could fall if Bitcoin's price drops significantly or if MSTR underperforms, causing markets to value the company below the worth of its Bitcoin holdings. While this scenario is not imminent, the fact that selling is even being mentioned marks a notable shift in tone from one of Bitcoin’s most vocal corporate backers.

Japanese Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs:

The yen carry trade works because of ultra cheap borrowing costs in Japan. But when those costs rise, especially unexpectedly, it forces institutions to unwind the trade by selling risk assets and repaying yen.

In November we saw exactly that. Long term Japanese bond yields surged, with the 10 year yield rising nearly 9% to its highest level since mid 2008. The 30 year yield rose 10% to reach an all time high.

This rapid rise has made borrowing more expensive and triggered early signs of another potential carry trade unwind. As noted earlier, a similar unwind last year led to a sharp 30% drop in Bitcoin as institutions liquidated positions.

December will be a critical month in this story, with both the Bank of Japan’s rate decision and possible currency intervention playing major roles in whether the unwind accelerates or gets delayed.

BlackRock’s IBIT Becomes the Most Successful ETF in History:

BlackRock was once firmly against Bitcoin. Now, less than two years after launching the IBIT Bitcoin Spot ETF, it has become the most successful ETF launch in history and BlackRock’s most profitable ETF product.

IBIT not only broke the record for the largest inflows in its first month, but by October 2025 it was generating an estimated $245 million in annual fees. It has now grown to hold over 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

This shift from active opposition to full scale adoption underscores how far institutional acceptance has come and how ETFs have become one of the most powerful forces in Bitcoin’s current cycle.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in November 2025:

Bitcoin fell 17.5% in November
Ethereum fell 22.2% in November
Solana and Tron both jumped in their rankings, SOL from seventh to sixth and TRX from tenth to eighth
PAXG was a standout, up 6.1% when the majority of the market was red
The total crypto market cap fell by 16.80%

Video of the month:

Saifedean Ammous Bitcoin Amsterdam 2025 Keynote Speech

Education: How Japanese Monetary Policy Impacts Bitcoin

We’ve spoken about how crucial Japanese yields, interest rates, and the yen carry trade are to Bitcoin, but how correlated are they really? Let’s take a closer look.

The relationship between Bitcoin and Japanese bond yields is quite a unique one. In the short term, the correlation tends to be negative. When yields spike suddenly, Bitcoin often sells off. But over the long term, across multi quarter and multi year periods, the trend flips positive.

If you zoom out and compare them since 2020, both Bitcoin and Japan’s 10 and 30 year bond yields have been moving higher overall. That shows a clear long term correlation. However, there have been specific periods where the two have moved in opposite directions.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/1jDETyow/

Since 2020 there have been three clear instances where a sudden spike in Japanese bond yields was followed by a sharp drop in Bitcoin. These occurred in mid 2022, February 2025 and again in November. In each case, yields rose sharply and Bitcoin corrected. On the flip side, in late 2023, yields fell and Bitcoin continued climbing. These periods tend to last one or two months before both assets resume their broader uptrend.

But the more persistent and clearer inverse relationship is between BOJ interest rates and Bitcoin.

For most of Bitcoin’s existence, the Bank of Japan held rates at or below zero. But over the past year, that environment has changed. Bitcoin is now dealing with a completely new macro backdrop that investors have not had to consider before, rising Japanese interest rates.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/9MXHpJmI/

The chart above shows that every time the BOJ has raised rates, Bitcoin has entered a period of weakness. This is largely due to the cost of borrowing yen increasing. As that cost rises, the yen carry trade begins to unwind and large institutional investors are forced to sell risk assets like Bitcoin to close their positions.

We are now approaching another critical moment. The BOJ’s December rate decision is still uncertain, with odds sitting close to a coin toss. The key question is whether the correlation holds. If the BOJ hikes again and the relationship remains intact, Bitcoin may face renewed selling pressure.

While it might not be obvious at first, Bitcoin is heavily tied to Japanese policy. The BOJ plays a huge role in global markets through its position as the world's primary supplier of cheap credit. What happens in Tokyo does not stay in Tokyo, and Bitcoin is one of the first assets to feel it.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Rake Review: October 2025

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 12:16:11 +1100

October Brought Lessons and November Brings Opportunity

As has been the case throughout this bull market, October delivered both highs and lows in rapid succession, each one offering its own lesson. A new all-time high was quickly followed by some hard truths for those chasing quick gains.

From All-Time Highs to Hard Lessons

October has built such a strong reputation for Bitcoin performance that it earned the nickname ‘Uptober’ from the crypto community. This year started just as expected. Within the first few days, Bitcoin printed a new all-time high and optimism returned across the board. But instead of pushing higher, the market was met with a brutal reversal that flipped sentiment overnight. What followed was not just a dip, but a historic liquidation event that shook the market and reminded everyone of one core truth in crypto.

Once again, the market served a painful reminder of why leverage should be approached with extreme caution. We have said it countless times and will keep saying it. Most people are better off buying spot, being patient, and letting the market do the work. But still, time after time, traders try to over-optimise, copy trade, or take on leverage thinking they can outperform. Unless you are part of the 0.01% of elite traders who can consistently beat the market, which is unlikely, the smarter move is to focus on accumulation and long-term positioning.

Large liquidation events are not rare. They are part of the game, especially in high volatility markets like crypto. Institutions and market makers know this better than anyone. They use size and timing to push price into high-leverage zones, triggering stop losses and liquidation cascades. Once the books are cleared, price often reverts back to its previous range. These are not fundamental moves. They are mechanical, structured plays designed to exploit retail positioning.

The professional manipulators playbook is simple. Dump the price, trigger liquidations, buy at a discount, then create momentum and exit at the highs. For leveraged investors, it usually ends in a wipeout. For professional manipulators, it is just another opportunity to accumulate or rent seek.

Yes, this wiped out a lot of traders and left a sour taste, particularly for more traditional investors who already view Bitcoin with scepticism. But for those who understand how the market functions, this was just another shakeout. Bitcoin has been through worse. It has survived 85% drawdowns, major exchange hacks, insolvencies, and regulatory crackdowns. Each time, it recovers and continues to grow.

Unlike July, when a Satoshi-era whale dumped nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin and triggered widespread panic, this month’s price action has been far more stable and mature. Sentiment, while cautious, remains constructive. That alone says a lot about how far the market has come.

Despite the severity of the liquidation, we now enter a much healthier backdrop. We have seen rate cuts, progress on the geopolitical front, and continued institutional adoption. Smart money continues to accumulate, not panic.

Bitcoin enters November with strong on-chain fundamentals, a cooling macro backdrop, and one of the most reliable seasonal trends in its favour. Historically, November has delivered an average return of 40.5%, and nine of the last fourteen Novembers have closed green.

October brought records, both good and bad. But now the dust has settled, the opportunity is clear. The conditions are aligning for what could be a very bullish end to the year.

The Shift from Shelter to Opportunity

When it comes to asset allocation, investors have no shortage of options. Most fall into the risk-on category and tend to perform well when macro conditions are supportive. But when sentiment turns, there is often a clear shift into risk-off assets that are perceived as safer havens.

Gold is traditionally seen as the go-to risk-off asset, while the S&P 500 represents a typical risk-on index, made up of equities that benefit from bullish conditions. Bitcoin, however, sits somewhere in between. While it is increasingly being pitched as a hedge, it still behaves like a high-beta risk-on asset, sitting much further down the risk curve.

In last month’s Rake Review, we examined Bitcoin’s correlation with both ends of the market. The conclusion was clear. Bitcoin has little to no correlation with gold and moves more closely in line with the S&P 500.

This year has been unusual in that both risk-on and risk-off assets have performed well. Gold is up 53% year to date, the S&P 500 has gained 16%, and Bitcoin is up 17%. All three have posted new all-time highs, with gold emerging as the clear standout. Its outperformance has been driven by ongoing macro uncertainty, from tariffs and interest rates to conflict in the Middle East. While gold has led the way, risk-on investors have been watching and waiting for capital to rotate back out of gold and into equities, and eventually into Bitcoin.

October showed early signs of that shift. As macro concerns began to ease, including progress on US-China trade tensions, signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, and clearer communication from the Federal Reserve, gold entered a correction. It retraced more than 10% from its all-time high in just over a week. At the same time, equity markets rallied to new highs, suggesting that capital is beginning to move back into risk-on territory.

But Bitcoin remained stagnant. Despite improving conditions, it spent most of the month trying to stay green. This is not unusual. Historically, the rotation begins with flows moving from gold into equities. Only once risk appetite fully returns do funds begin rotating into Bitcoin and the broader crypto space.

For most of the year, the macro environment has been mixed. Sentiment has been fragile and policy uncertainty has kept many sidelined. Yet despite all of this, Bitcoin remains up on the year and has posted several new highs, all without a major rotation into the asset.

Now, with geopolitical risks cooling, macro clarity improving, and Bitcoin entering its historically strongest month, the setup is there. November could be the point where the larger rotation finally moves into crypto.

From Setback to Setup

October got off to a strong start. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high and was up 10% within the first five days, living up to the hype of ‘Uptober’. Momentum was building, and expectations were high. However, things quickly turned. After a brief period of consolidation, Trump announced new tariffs on China, and within minutes, $20 billion in open interest was liquidated. Bitcoin dropped from $117,000 to $102,000 in under 20 minutes.

The event shattered any bullish momentum. The rest of the month became a grind. Retail and institutional players largely stayed on the sidelines, while those caught in the liquidation cascade tried to leverage their way back in – and were wiped out again. Volatility remained high, but most daily moves reversed by the end of each session, creating choppy, directionless price action.

By 31 October, Bitcoin had failed to deliver on ‘Uptober’s’ promise. Despite setting a new all-time high early on, the month closed down 3.79%. There were multiple bullish attempts as sentiment began to turn – fuelled by the anticipation of an interest rate cut, optimism around a resolution in the US-China tariff standoff, and capital beginning to flow back in as gold corrected. But every rally attempt was knocked back by fresh headlines, the most damaging being Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone following the 25 basis point cut.

Still, throughout the month, we highlighted the broader opportunity. Weakness and underperformance created space to accumulate before what is historically Bitcoin’s strongest month – November. Over the past 14 years, nine Novembers have closed green, with an average monthly return of 40.5%.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/NRlZdWa2/

While October ended in the bears’ favour, the bulls have built a foundation for a potential November breakout. The bullish fair value gap, which acted as deeper support, has now been filled and offered the relief needed to stabilise price action heading into the new month.

Looking forward, if we take the historical November average and apply a 40.5% increase from current levels, Bitcoin could rally towards $150,000. While that scenario remains statistically unlikely – with Kalshi giving it just a 6% probability – it aligns with the 2025 projections many had been making for months. If it were to happen, November would be the month to watch.

The macro backdrop is shifting. A resolution between the US and China now looks to be in place following a key meeting between Trump and Xi, which resulted in a trade deal. Interest rate uncertainty remains the main concern. With the US government still shut down, key data releases remain paused unless further exceptions are granted. However, there is growing expectation that the shutdown will end in November, potentially unlocking the economic data needed to guide the Fed's final rate decision in December.

In the News:

Morgan Stanley Recommends Crypto Allocations:

On 5 October, Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Committee advised clients to allocate up to 4% of "opportunistic growth" portfolios and 2% of "balanced growth" portfolios to digital assets. This guidance, which impacts over 16,000 advisors managing $2 trillion in assets, marks a significant moment for institutional adoption. It reflects growing confidence from TradFi, especially on the back of Q3’s $3.9 billion in unrealised Bitcoin gains for firms like MicroStrategy. The move signals continued diversification into crypto as a potential hedge against inflation.

Interest Rate Cut and the Road Ahead:

We saw the second interest rate cut of the year take place, this time by 25 basis points, bringing the current target range to 4.00%–4.25%. The timing of the decision was complex. With the US government shut down throughout October and likely to remain so, key data the FOMC typically relies on was unavailable. An exception was made for CPI inflation data, but broader economic inputs were missing. Jerome Powell acknowledged that this made the policy decision more difficult, though the committee ultimately moved ahead with the 25 bps cut.

Markets had been split on whether we’d see 50 or even 75 bps of total easing between now and December. However, Powell’s hawkish tone during the press conference shifted expectations. His comment that “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion” spooked investors. As it stands, markets are pricing in a 68% chance of a 25 bps cut in December, with a 32% chance of no change.

October’s Cryptocurrency ETF Momentum:

October was a breakout month for crypto ETFs. Bitwise launched its Solana Staking ETF, while Canary Capital listed both a spot Litecoin ETF and a spot Hedera ETF. Meanwhile, 21Shares filed for a spot Hyperliquid ETF. The uptick in both filings and listings, particularly across altcoins, continues to legitimise the sector and signals increased institutional interest beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum. As the ETF landscape broadens, so does crypto’s foothold in traditional finance.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in October 2025:

Bitcoin fell by 3.79% in October
Ethereum fell by 7.64% in October
The top 10 remained unchanged from last month
Bittensor (TAO) was a standout performer of the month, up 38% for the month
The total crypto market fell by 5.50%

Video of the month:

Charles Hoskinson Keynote at TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025

Education: The Painful Truth About Leverage

Now this may seem like a familiar topic, and it is, but it remains one of the most important lessons in this market. Unfortunately, it is also the one most traders seem determined to ignore until it is too late. The consequences are rarely small. Portfolios get wiped, capital evaporates, and lessons are learned in the most unforgiving way possible.

This month was a sharp reminder of that reality. Over $20 billion in open interest was flushed out of the market in a single day. That figure is not a typo. It was one of the largest liquidation events we have seen in recent memory, and it unfolded fast. Overleveraged long positions were caught completely offside, with cascading liquidations driving prices down across the board and wiping out billions in unrealised gains.

Events like this show exactly why we continue to push the message of buying spot and keeping leverage to a minimum. It is not about being risk-averse. It is about understanding that leverage adds a layer of complexity that most are not equipped to manage. It amplifies your exposure, but also your risk, your margin for error, and your emotional response. In markets as volatile and fast-moving as crypto, that is a dangerous cocktail.

Using leverage means you are not just predicting direction. You are predicting the timing, the size of the move, and the reaction of other participants. You are betting against time, liquidity, volatility, and even platform stability. All of those variables can turn against you in a flash. And when they do, they do not just dent your PnL. They close your positions and leave you sidelined.

A sharp wick down can liquidate a well-placed long before the market even bounces. A funding rate spike can skew your entry. A flush in open interest can trigger a domino effect that wipes out hundreds of millions in positions. These are not rare events. They are baked into how the market functions.

The hard truth is that most traders simply do not need leverage. If you are bullish, buy spot. If you believe in an asset, hold it. Building wealth in this space does not require 10x or 50x leverage. It requires patience, capital preservation, and a clear head. The obsession with maxing out position size is what gets people rekt. You only have to get it wrong once.

We broke all of this down in our Thunder Trading article earlier this month. If you missed it, we are including it again here. It walks through the mechanics of what happened, why it happened, and how you can avoid becoming part of the next liquidation wave. We do not rehash content unless it matters. And this one matters.

Too many people lose too much money learning this lesson after the fact. Do not be one of them.

Stormrake returns to the Australian Crypto Convention

We’re thrilled to be sponsoring the Australian Crypto Convention in Sydney on 22 and 23 November. As a sponsor, we’ll have a dedicated booth at the event and invite you to come by, meet the team.

Our Director and COO Bisher Khudeira will be there alongside members of our senior team including our Senior Brokers, Senior Trader, and Senior Analyst, ready to connect and talk all things crypto.

The Stormrake booth will feature a popcorn machine for a quick snack and a live DJ booth to keep the energy high. Contact your Stormrake Broker for details and to secure your ticket.

We look forward to seeing you there.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: September 2025

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 16:12:56 +1000

The Calm Before Q4’s Big Move

September has wrapped up. Bitcoin fought through historical stigmas, liquidations, and manipulation to close green. A new narrative dominated headlines and shook the space, while fresh signs of adoption continue to emerge. Through it all, Bitcoin held firm and September has now set the stage for October.

Driven by Expectations and Historical Patterns

We’ve just wrapped up Bitcoin’s historically worst month of the year, September. And much like the rest of 2025 so far, it was mixed. Both bulls and bears had their moments in the sun, but by the end of it, Bitcoin once again fought its way back on top.

The dominant narrative this year has been interest rates. Off the back of 2024, where we saw a full 100bps cut between September and December, markets began pricing in the potential for up to five rate cuts in 2025. That idea fuelled rallies across all risk-on assets. Fast forward to today, and with only two decisions left on the calendar, it’s clear there won’t be five cuts. But despite that, markets have still pushed to new all-time highs across multiple sectors.

After months of pressure, including criticism from the US President, Powell and the Federal Reserve finally made the call to cut rates. While the actual cut didn’t move price much on the day, the signal was loud and clear. The door is now open. We already saw a preview of this at Jackson Hole in August, where Powell hinted at a shift in policy for the upcoming September meeting. Markets responded with strength. With two more cuts still expected, the final quarter of the year could carry serious potential for further all-time highs and broad risk-on strength.

When it comes to price manipulation, Bitcoin is no stranger. Large exchanges and institutions regularly push price in a certain direction to trigger liquidations on leveraged positions. This is often done to collect additional fees or to drive price lower for better entries before a reversal. These moves aren’t sustainable because they’re not driven by genuine buying or selling interest. Instead, they’re often triggered by large players temporarily moving price to force liquidations, not to establish long-term positions.

Over the past year, we’ve seen several brutal liquidation days, mostly targeting overleveraged longs. While 2025 hasn’t seen as many as previous years, December 2024 still had multiple days with over $1 billion in liquidations. The largest came in at $1.8 billion, which triggered a 6% drop in Bitcoin. Fast forward to this September, we saw two more days in the same week with over $1 billion wiped from the market. The biggest was on the 22nd, when $1.7 billion was liquidated. But this time, the reaction was far more muted. Bitcoin dropped less than 2.5%.

To put that into context, the FTX collapse in 2022 triggered $1.5 billion in liquidations over six days, and Bitcoin dropped nearly 30%. That comparison highlights how far the market has matured. Institutional adoption and deeper liquidity mean that multi-billion dollar liquidation events now have a reduced impact on price.

As Bitcoin continues to grow, these events will likely have less and less influence on daily price action. But manipulation will always remain. The main takeaway is that these liquidation pullbacks continue to present prime opportunities to accumulate. Because no matter how wild things get in the short term, Bitcoin’s long-term direction hasn’t changed — it still moves up and to the right.

Bull Markets Are Fuelled by Narratives

Bull markets are driven by narratives, whether in crypto or traditional markets. These narratives can be sector-focused or broad market-wide themes, but they all drive price action. Investors chase the hottest stories, and that chase fuels momentum and outsized performance. Once one narrative fades, another takes its place. It’s a cycle within a cycle.

Some of the strongest bull markets have been powered by genuine macro narratives. In 2021, we saw the post-pandemic stimulus era take hold. Government handouts and free-flowing capital didn’t just pump stock and crypto markets — they sent everything into bull mode. The current bull run, while slightly different, is no less powerful. Some argue it’s a tech and AI-driven rally in traditional markets, while others point to Bitcoin’s breakout being led by institutional adoption. Both are true, but the foundation of this entire move is simple: the money printer is back, inflation remains sticky, and investors are looking for alternative vehicles to generate returns and preserve wealth.

The bull run out of the pandemic and the current one share a common core — easy money and systemic macro pressure. As Bitcoin matures, its correlation with these broader macro themes continues to strengthen.

Not every narrative is shared across asset classes. That’s nothing new. Narratives have always defined market cycles, and the history of the S&P 500 is proof of that. Bitcoin is still young and hasn’t lived through even a fraction of what traditional markets have experienced. Traditional markets have seen cycles shaped by tech dominance after the GFC, the Dot-Com boom, post-war economic expansions and the Reagan bull market. Even now, gold is leading in performance and that strength is flowing into gold miners and related equities.

Crypto has had its own defining cycles too. In 2013, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” and “safe haven” status took off during the Cyprus banking crisis. Google searches spiked 10x, and Bitcoin rallied 5x on the back of it. In 2017, the ICO craze drove altcoins and Ethereum to dizzying heights.

This current crypto bull run has had no shortage of narratives either. It started with the Bitcoin ETF rumours and eventual approvals, which helped drive further institutional adoption. Then the narrative shifted to inflation and the macro setup. From there, sector-specific rallies began to break out. Solana pushed to new highs off the back of the memecoin casino in January. AI-focused projects like FET (now ASI) and Bittensor (TAO) caught strong bids. Ethereum and its broader ecosystem also saw renewed attention as institutions began building and adopting ETH-native infrastructure.

And then came a new narrative.

The headlines in September were dominated by one theme — Decentralised Exchanges (DEXes). Earlier in the year, Hyperliquid launched its token and quickly made waves, establishing itself as a top 20 crypto by market cap and capturing a large share of onchain DEX users. But September saw a shift. Aster, a new DEX built on Binance Smart Chain and backed by major players in the space, exploded onto the scene.

The result was a major user migration from Hyperliquid to Aster as the hype built. ASTER rallied from under $0.02 to over $2.40 in under two weeks, while HYPE fell over 30% after setting a new all-time high earlier in the month. Aster’s explosive launch also had a ripple effect on BNB, the native token of Binance Smart Chain, which hit an all-time high off the back of increased onchain activity.

The question now is whether Aster can hold the momentum. Hyperliquid has already established itself as a long-term player. If Aster can maintain its user base and liquidity, it could shape up to be the one-two punch in the DEX space.

This was a clear sector-driven narrative within the broader market. Looking ahead, the next narrative is already forming — interest rate cuts and the historical strength of Q4, which has consistently been the most bullish quarter for risk-on assets.

September Holds Strong, Uptober Now in Focus

Heading into September, Bitcoin was under pressure. Bears were out in force, calling for the end of the bull market, and history was on their side. September is Bitcoin’s worst-performing month on record. Most would have bet on a red monthly close. But once again, Bitcoin proved the doubters wrong, closing the month green and up 5%, despite late-month pressure from liquidations and expiring options.

Even with that bearish backdrop and sentiment, Bitcoin held its ground. Now it is preparing for the most bullish period of the year — Uptober and the fourth quarter. October ranks as Bitcoin’s fourth-best month by average return at 15.2%, but it stands out as the most commonly green month, with only four red Octobers since 2011.

In addition to seasonality, October is expected to bring the penultimate rate cut of the year. As of writing, there is a 90% chance of a 25 bps cut. While the market may already be anticipating it, the fact that it is happening adds another bullish catalyst to what is shaping up to be a strong month for risk-on assets.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/zRfohOjE/

Looking at the current technical picture, Bitcoin is closing out September in a relatively neutral stance. Momentum is sideways, and structure is in no man’s land, with a lower high and a higher low forming the present range. This setup gives both bulls and bears a clean shot at taking control in October. However, historical performance and macro catalysts suggest the bulls are more likely to come out on top. If Bitcoin simply matches its average return for October, price would break to a new all-time high above $131,000.

Although September may have felt like a flat or slightly bearish month, the reality is that it was quietly bullish. And now, as we enter the most favourable time of the year, the opportunity is still there. Bitcoin is trading at a near 10% discount from its all-time high, and many altcoins are offering even deeper discounts.

You do not want to be caught bearish or sidelined going into this stretch. Time and time again, investors who wait end up buying higher or missing the move altogether. The setup is clear, and the playbook has not changed.

And we have not even talked about November yet. With an average return of 40.5%, that discussion is for the next Rake Review

In the News:

FTX Creditor Payouts Underway at Discounted Rates:

FTX has announced the third round of creditor repayments, with $1.6 billion set to be returned to users. These repayments are based on the 2022 valuations of the lost assets, not current market prices.

To illustrate:

Bitcoin: $30,000 per BTC
Solana: $30 per SOL
Ethereum: $3,900 per ETH

This means anyone who lost 1 BTC will only receive $30,000, even though Bitcoin trades significantly higher today. For Bitcoin and Solana holders, the haircut is substantial. Ethereum holders are slightly better off, given ETH has largely moved sideways over the past few years.

What matters now is what recipients decide to do with the funds. Some may take the opportunity to re-enter the market, others may remain in cash. Either way, this fresh injection of liquidity has the potential to act as a tailwind for crypto. If even a portion of that capital flows back into Bitcoin or the broader market, it could help sustain the momentum heading into Q4.

Wall Street Embraces Tokenisation:

NASDAQ has announced that it has filed with the US SEC to allow tokenised trading of stocks and ETFs. This move has sparked a wave of optimism, providing confidence that traditional finance is beginning to incorporate Web3 elements into its offerings.

Tokenised equities would allow investors to purchase fractions of stocks, similar to how one can buy fractions of a Bitcoin. This is a key barrier being removed for smaller retail investors. If approved, this would further legitimise the crypto space and open the door for deeper institutional and traditional flows into digital asset ecosystems.

The pendulum has now swung the other way and there may be no turning back. If this gets the green light, expect a strong move in crypto markets as this narrative shift takes hold.

US Government Shutdown Imminent Amid Political Deadlock:

The month looks set to end with a US government shutdown, following stalled bipartisan negotiations over spending cuts, border security, and policy amendments. No continuing resolution has been passed, and prediction markets are now pricing in an 85% to 86% chance of a shutdown as lawmakers return to Capitol Hill amid heightened political tension.

A shutdown is a partial halt of non-essential federal operations, triggered when Congress fails to approve funding legislation. So what does this mean for markets?

Risk-on assets may face heightened volatility due to increased uncertainty, while risk-off assets such as gold are likely to benefit and rally. The real question is how Bitcoin reacts. Will it behave like a risk-on asset and see volatility, or will it begin to attract capital like a risk-off hedge and see an influx of liquidity as investors look to reduce exposure elsewhere?

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in September 2025:

Bitcoin increased by 5.21%
Ethereum decreased by 4.43%
The top 10 remained unchanged from last month
BNB was the top performer in the top 10, climbing nearly 20%
ASTER exploded onto the scene and quickly became a top 50 crypto project

Video of the month:

Michael Saylor on Bitcoin & Credit Markets: Bitcoin Treasuries Unconference Full Panel and Q&A

Education: Bitcoin’s Correlation: Gold, Equities, or Its Own Path?

There are several conflicting views when it comes to Bitcoin and what it actually tracks in the broader market. Some refer to it as ‘Digital Gold’, positioning it as an alternative safe haven asset, while critics label it the ‘Leveraged Nasdaq’ or treat it as just another tech stock.

So what does Bitcoin really behave like? Is it a risk-on or risk-off asset, or does it move entirely on its own terms? Let’s break it down.

Correlation in this context is measured as a 120-day rolling correlation. A value above 0 indicates a positive correlation, meaning both assets tend to move together. A value below 0 signals a negative correlation, where the assets move inversely.

Bitcoin and Gold

Let’s start with gold, given Bitcoin’s nickname.

Despite often being referred to as ‘Digital Gold’, the two assets have rarely moved in tandem over Bitcoin’s lifecycle. The highest recorded correlation between them came during the pandemic, where it peaked at 0.5. During that period, Bitcoin rallied 400% while gold climbed 67%, as investors fled to inflation-resistant assets.

Since then, however, the relationship has faded. Today, the correlation hovers between 0 and 0.1, and the long-term average since Bitcoin’s inception is close to 0. In short, the two assets rarely move together, despite the narrative.

The divergence has been especially clear in 2025. Gold is up nearly 50% year to date, solidifying its status as the world’s hedge asset. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has spent much of the year consolidating. The market still appears to classify Bitcoin as a growth asset, while gold remains the preferred hedge.

Bitcoin and the S&P 500

In Bitcoin’s earlier years, especially pre-pandemic, its correlation to the S&P 500 was minimal, and at times even negative. It moved largely on its own, often dictated by crypto-native catalysts such as the Mt Gox collapse, regulatory crackdowns from China, and market cycles driven by halving events and ICOs.

That changed during the pandemic. As central banks flooded the economy with stimulus, asset classes began to move together, and Bitcoin’s correlation with equities climbed. The peak came in May 2022 during a wave of rate hikes and geopolitical shocks, including the conflict in Eastern Europe, where both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 dropped sharply. At that point, correlation reached 0.68.

Unlike its relationship with gold, Bitcoin has maintained a moderately strong correlation with equities as it continues to mature. Institutional adoption has increased, and Bitcoin now reacts more consistently to traditional macro events. As of today, the correlation with the S&P 500 sits around 0.5.

Although the S&P 500 pushed to new all-time highs throughout September while Bitcoin moved sideways, the 120-day rolling correlation remains intact. If Bitcoin catches a bid in October, we could see that connection strengthen again.

Bitcoin Is Maturing, but Not a Hedge Yet

For most of its life, Bitcoin moved independently from both traditional equities and hard assets. But as the asset has matured, its relationship with equities, particularly the S&P 500, has become more apparent. Bitcoin now reacts more predictably to macro headlines like inflation, interest rate decisions, tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts.

That said, Bitcoin still has its own isolated catalysts — whether it is ancient wallets moving, major project failures, or sudden surges in institutional or government adoption. These are unique to the crypto space and can drive movement independently from traditional markets.

However, when it comes to broader market forces, Bitcoin currently behaves more like a risk-on asset. While the ‘Digital Gold’ narrative remains aspirational, and may eventually become reality, for now Bitcoin is more closely tied to equity market sentiment than it is to gold.

Written by Alexandar Artis

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: August 2025

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 17:12:17 +1000

From All Time Highs to Bear Market Calls

August was a month of extremes for Bitcoin, with fresh all-time highs, sharp reversals, and a whale-triggered sell-off that shook sentiment. The cycle clock is ticking, and with rate cuts approaching and macro conditions shifting, the question now is whether the market has one more leg higher or if the top is already in.

A Month of Extremes: New Highs, Whale Dumps, and Macro Whiplash

They say the best thing you can do after buying Bitcoin is forget about it and come back in ten years. You miss the euphoric rallies and the soul-crushing drawdowns, but when you zoom out a decade later, odds are you are sitting on something worth significantly more than what you paid.

But for many, the volatility in between is part of the appeal. It draws speculators in, even as seasoned Bitcoiners grow numb to it. This August, that volatility was back in full force.

Coming into the month, two factors were expected to shape price action: the ongoing geopolitical tension between Ukraine and Russia, and the latest US inflation data. Both played their part. But the most dramatic twist came from a whale no one saw coming.

August began, like much of the year, with macro tensions. Putin floated a fresh ceasefire proposal that was swiftly dismissed by Zelenskyy. Reports of progress surfaced, with a potential trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin discussed. Nothing came of it in the end, but the market moved quickly. Bitcoin surged to a fresh all-time high above $124K following inflation data.

Ironically, while Bitcoin was created to hedge against inflation, it now reacts directly to inflation prints, rate cut speculation and the words of one man: Jerome Powell. As Bitcoin continues to mature, its correlation with traditional markets is strengthening. The same forces moving equities are moving crypto.

The first major driver was CPI. It came in slightly better than expected and gave Bitcoin the momentum to break out and push to new all time highs. But just days later, PPI told a very different story. The hotter-than-expected print triggered a sharp sell-off in risk markets. Bitcoin tumbled. Then Powell spoke.

Arguably the most influential voice in markets right now, Powell delivered a dovish tone in his policy speech that sent risk assets flying. Bitcoin rallied hard and attempted to reclaim the lost momentum post PPI data. It looked like momentum was back. Then the second domino fell.

A Bitcoin whale offloaded 24,000 BTC the day after Powell’s speech. That single move, worth $2.7 billion at the time, wiped over $4,000 off the price in a matter of minutes. As large as that number is, it was just a fraction of this whale’s holdings. They still have around 150,000 BTC sitting in their wallet. For comparison, last month eight wallets moved 80,000 BTC and triggered another market drop. If this whale ever decides to clear out their entire bag, the short-term impact would be massive. But for long-term buyers with patience, those kinds of moves could offer generational entry points.

Is Time Running Out for the Bull Run?

It’s the uncomfortable question that tends to get louder as prices climb higher: are we nearing the end of the bull run?

Bitcoin has now spent nearly three years climbing out from its 2022 cycle low, following a rhythm that long-time holders know well. This market structure, often referred to as the four-year cycle, has defined every major bull and bear market since Bitcoin’s inception. The premise is simple. A halving triggers a multi-year rally, followed by a year-long cooldown. Historically, cycle tops have formed around 500 days after each halving.

Right now, we are 490 days out from the most recent halving on 20 April 2024. Bitcoin recently tagged $124K and is beginning to show signs of slowing. That puts us right in the historical window where previous tops have occurred. The chart below shows the time elapsed between each halving and its corresponding cycle peak. Once again, Bitcoin appears to be tracking the same cadence.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/X1SUCtC8/

Still, a growing school of thought argues that this time could be different. As Bitcoin continues to mature and becomes more integrated into institutional portfolios, the four-year cycle may be losing relevance. In this view, price action is becoming less about the halving and more about macro trends, liquidity flows and key narratives.

Trump’s influence, for example, whether through social media posts, executive orders or pro-crypto policy shifts, has had visible effects on Bitcoin’s price. Similarly, high-profile players like Michael Saylor and Larry Fink can move markets. If BlackRock were to announce even a 1 percent allocation across its products, Bitcoin would likely reprice well before any halving-driven supply dynamics had a chance to kick in.

That’s not to say halvings no longer matter. Their impact just seems to be fading with each cycle. Bitcoin is maturing. Liquidity is deeper. And price behaviour is starting to look more like a high-beta risk asset than a niche inflation hedge. Correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continues to rise, and policy decisions from the Fed or Treasury are now setting the tone for short-term price direction.

Even with these changes, this current cycle still looks and feels a lot like the previous ones. The timing, structure and sentiment all point toward a market nearing its peak. Some are already calling a top, while others believe we could still see a final blow-off phase that exceeds expectations. That view depends heavily on sustained risk appetite and continued institutional inflows.

Bitcoin’s history has shown that cycles, sentiment shifts and major market events tend to repeat in familiar ways. The details may evolve, but the patterns often stay the same. Whether this marks the end of the bull run or just the beginning of its final leg, one truth remains: short-term volatility does not change the long-term case for Bitcoin.

August Volatility, September’s Seasonal Struggles

If you had told someone a month ago that Bitcoin would hit new all-time highs and then, just days later, people would be calling for a bear market, they would have thought you were mad. But that is exactly how August played out.

Bitcoin climbed to a new peak, ending the month nearly 7% higher at one point. But things turned fast. As sentiment flipped, the month closed red, down just under 7% from its high. It was a sharp reversal that caught many off guard.

Now we head into September, a month that has rarely been kind to Bitcoin. Historically, it is the worst-performing month on average for the asset, with a typical loss of 5.58% and nine of the last fourteen Septembers closing in the red. The trend is clear, and it is not just limited to crypto. September also has a poor track record for equities. Since 1926, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of minus 0.8% in September, and four of the last five years have followed that same negative pattern.

The current structure does not look great for Bitcoin, with August seeing both momentum and short-term control swing back to the bears. Entering what is statistically the most bearish month of the year only adds to the uncertainty. That said, the picture is not all bad. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin is now approaching a strong zone of technical support between $104K and $107K, with a deeper support band below that in the $102K to $103K region. If price continues lower and September plays out as history suggests, these levels should provide meaningful demand and could very well mark a short-term bottom.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/4k2HJmJP/

These zones also align with what we would expect if Bitcoin were to post a typical September pullback of around 5%, which suggests any downside from here could be limited. From a structural perspective, this makes the coming weeks critical. If the support holds, the stage would be set for a potential rebound in October, which has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months.

Breakout targets remain intact, with the shallow $130K region still acting as the key upside magnet. A move of nearly 20% would be required to reach those levels, but a steady September would set the scene for a strong fourth quarter, continuing the pattern of bullish momentum through October and beyond.

Macro could be the deciding factor. All eyes are on the 17 September interest rate decision, where markets are currently pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 bps cut. Powell’s dovish tone in August already boosted risk sentiment, and if a cut is confirmed, it could be the catalyst Bitcoin needs. One more inflation print is due before the meeting, and that could either confirm expectations or throw more confusion into the mix. If the Fed surprises with a hold, risk assets could face another leg lower.

Geopolitics also remains a wildcard. The potential meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin, expected in early September, could influence markets significantly. A move towards resolution in the Ukraine conflict would likely be seen as a major positive for risk assets.

So while history may not be on Bitcoin’s side heading into September, macro and technical support both offer reasons for cautious optimism. Bitcoin is vulnerable in the short term, but structurally it remains in the range of strong demand. The path forward depends on whether buyers step in here or wait for further confirmation. Either way, what happens in September could shape the rest of the cycle.

In the News:

XRP Co-founder faces scrutiny for selling his tokens:

Controversy has been building around XRP co-founder Chris Larsen, as his wallet was recently linked to the sale or movement of 50 million XRP tokens, worth roughly $175 million around XRP's all-time high in July at $3.65. Around $140 million of that total ended up on exchanges, with the rest transferred to new wallets. The move has weighed heavily on XRP’s price action and added further pressure to an already bearish market backdrop. It has also reignited criticism around the project’s centralisation, with many investors frustrated by the perception that insiders are selling into retail demand. Any hopes of a bullish breakout have been temporarily halted.

Executive Order Opens Retirement Crypto Access in America:

In his push to position America as the global home of crypto, Trump signed another series of pro-crypto executive orders last month. The most impactful of these now allows Americans to purchase Bitcoin and other crypto assets within their 401(k) retirement plans, the US equivalent of Superannuation. This policy unlocks a major gateway, potentially giving over 90 million Americans direct exposure to the crypto market. It is a significant milestone for mainstream adoption and another tailwind for long-term demand.

Chainlink Partners with the US Department of Commerce:

Sticking with the broader theme of US-led crypto advancement, Chainlink has announced a partnership with the US Department of Commerce. The collaboration will bring key economic indicators, including real GDP and the PCE Price Index, on-chain to make the data immutable and publicly verifiable. This is a major step forward, not just for Chainlink but for the crypto space at large. By putting real-world economic data on the blockchain, the initiative signals growing institutional confidence in the technology and further legitimises the use case for decentralised data infrastructure beyond just Bitcoin.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in August 2025:

Bitcoin dropped 6.43% in August
Ethereum gained 18.7%, continuing its strong run and setting a new all-time high
Solana kept pace with ETH, finishing the month up 16.7%
Chainlink led the majors, up 37.3% and climbing to the 13th largest crypto by market cap
Total crypto market cap fell slightly by 0.56%

Video of the month:

Balaji Srinivasan: What Happens When Bitcoin Wins | Bitcoin Asia 2025

Education: Is There a Problem with Bitcoin Treasury Companies?

In the last cycle, we saw the collapse of hedge funds, trading firms and exchanges that were once considered too big to fail, until they were not. The unraveling of 3 Arrows Capital, Alameda Research and ultimately FTX dealt brutal blows to the market during the bear phase, sending Bitcoin and the broader crypto space even lower. A common thread ran through all of them: they were overleveraged and, in many cases, trading with borrowed or misused funds. As the bear market deepened and drawdowns accelerated, they fell like dominoes.

This cycle, the spotlight has shifted. Some critics now argue that Bitcoin treasury companies, which are firms holding large amounts of Bitcoin on their balance sheets, could become the FTX or 3AC of this era. The concern is that they are similarly vulnerable to collapse and could amplify downside pressure on Bitcoin’s price during periods of stress.

The Bitcoin treasury model has been led by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) CEO Michael Saylor. Under his leadership, the company has accumulated one of the largest corporate Bitcoin reserves by purchasing BTC directly and raising additional capital through convertible notes and equity offerings to buy more. In some cases, they have used debt financing, which increases the risk profile of the strategy. Other companies, such as Tesla and Block, have taken a different approach by using internal funds, but none have matched Strategy’s scale or aggressiveness. Recently, a handful of other Bitcoin-focused businesses have signalled similar intentions, taking inspiration from Saylor’s model.

It is not just Bitcoin seeing this trend emerge. Companies are beginning to adopt a similar strategy with other digital assets, including Ethereum and Solana. BitMine is currently the largest Ethereum treasury company, while Upexi holds the largest corporate position in Solana. As more companies join the trend and a broader range of assets become part of corporate treasuries, the risks begin to increase. With fewer safeguards, less liquidity and greater volatility across altcoins, the danger and likelihood of forced liquidations, poor risk management and eventual collapse become much higher. This raises systemic concerns not just for Bitcoin, but for the wider crypto market if this trend continues to accelerate without proper controls.

The core concern is leverage. Strategy has issued billions of dollars in debt to build its Bitcoin position. If a deep bear market drives prices sharply lower, the value of its holdings could fall to a point where the company struggles to service or refinance that debt. In a worst-case scenario, this could trigger forced Bitcoin sales, accelerating downside moves and shaking market confidence. While Strategy has already weathered one full bear cycle, the risk grows as the model is adopted by others. Critics warn it only takes one major failure to temporarily destabilise the market.

That said, even if a Bitcoin treasury company collapses and is forced to liquidate, it is crucial to remember that this risk sits with the company, not with Bitcoin itself. The network and asset remain fundamentally unchanged. Prices could fall in the short term, but Bitcoin’s core qualities such as scarcity, decentralisation and security are not affected by the actions of any single firm.

The analogy to the Global Financial Crisis is useful. In 2008, banks created risky debt instruments tied to mortgages. When the debt collapsed, markets crashed, but the houses themselves were still there. Similarly, if overleveraged crypto treasury companies fail, the Bitcoin, Ethereum or Solana they hold remains the same. The long-term value proposition does not disappear just because the wrong balance sheet strategy blew up.

Whether these companies thrive or collapse, Bitcoin remains Bitcoin. And now, so does Ethereum, Solana and any other asset chosen as a corporate store of value. For long-term investors, the noise around strategy, leverage and risk exposure should not distract from the core fundamentals. Volatility is part of the market, but the technology and value behind these assets persist regardless of how any one company chooses to manage its books.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The Rake Review: July 2025

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 13:58:55 +1000

From Dormant Wallets to Record Highs and the Dawn of Altseason?

July was a month of contrasts for Bitcoin, with decade-old coins suddenly moving, fresh all-time highs, and the first major crypto regulations landing. The back half of the year has started stronger than expected, but can this momentum carry into a full-fledged altseason?

Blast from Bitcoin’s Past

Everyone wishes they bought Bitcoin earlier. Back in 2011, it was under $1. But even if you had bought it then, would you have held it until today? The likely answer is no. Most would have sold at $100, $1,000, or maybe $10,000.

The first challenge would have been simply buying it. Stormrake didn’t exist, so you couldn’t just call your broker for an allocation. Storing Bitcoin was also a headache. Hardware wallets like Ledger and Trezor didn’t exist, and the main exchange at the time, Mt. Gox, was hacked in 2013, with 7% of the total Bitcoin supply stolen.

Source:https://x.com/GregSchoen/status/70261648811761665

So the likelihood of you still having your Bitcoin, even if you bought it in 2011, is extremely slim. You most likely would have been like the X user above, who actually did buy Bitcoin in 2011 but sold at $0.30. For those curious, his 1,700 BTC is now worth roughly $196 million USD or $298 million AUD.

This month, several wallets from that early era suddenly came to life. Eight ‘Satoshi-Era’ wallets moved over 80,000 BTC, worth more than $8.4 billion USD at the time. Speculation immediately swirled around the crypto community. Was it Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, freed by Trump earlier this year? Early Bitcoin evangelist Roger Ver, recently released from prison? Or even Satoshi Nakamoto himself?

The initial movements triggered a brief wave of selling as investors feared a massive dump. But it turned out to be simple wallet upgrades, moving coins from old, inefficient addresses to newer ones with lower fees. The owners remain a mystery.

Then, late this month, Galaxy Digital confirmed one of the largest Bitcoin sales in history: more than 80,000 BTC sold for over $9 billion USD. It caused another quick sell-off, but demand quickly absorbed it. The market barely flinched. The only losers were the panic sellers. Everyone else, including the mystery whale who turned a $54,000 investment into $9 billion in under 15 years, won.

If it really was Ulbricht or Ver, perhaps prison was a blessing in disguise. A decade without access to their Bitcoin meant they couldn’t sell, and that enforced patience paid off. Or maybe it was simply someone with true diamond hands. Either way, the lesson is clear. Holding Bitcoin through its volatile cycles, as we tell our Stormrake clients time and time again, has historically been the ultimate reward.

The Altseason Question

Has altseason finally arrived? The bull run that many have been waiting for may now be upon us. Historically, altseasons have been extremely rewarding for holders of altcoins, but this cycle has tested patience. Over the last 12 to 18 months, we have seen several false starts. Traders tried to front-run altseason, rotated heavily into alts, and ended up holding deep drawdowns. Could this finally be the real one?

When it comes to altseason, there are a few reliable signals. This time, multiple signals are aligning more clearly than ever. Those who have been in the crypto space for several cycles will be familiar with the traditional phases of altseason:

Source:@Twitter

The path to altseason historically follows four overlapping phases. This current bull run has been dominated by Bitcoin and has effectively remained in Phase 1 for years. Bitcoin rose from $15.5K to well over $100K. While some sectors briefly outperformed—ISO tokens, real-world asset tokens—Bitcoin consistently led.

Phase 2 begins when Ethereum dominates, consistently outperforming Bitcoin and other altcoins. The key word here is consistency. Over the past few years, Ethereum occasionally outperformed Bitcoin for short bursts, but never for more than a couple of weeks. Many traders rotated too early, only to watch Bitcoin hit new all-time highs while Ethereum lagged.

The last few months have been different. Ethereum has now been consistently outperforming Bitcoin, supported by major institutional demand. Spot Ethereum ETF inflows have dwarfed Bitcoin ETF inflows on a market cap-adjusted basis. Since 2 July, Ethereum ETFs have not seen a single day of net outflows, while Bitcoin ETF flows have been mixed.

Phase 3 is when funds begin to rotate from Ethereum into the next set of large-cap altcoins: Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Sui (SUI). These coins start to lead the market and outperform both Bitcoin and Ethereum. We have already seen brief signs of this, with BNB and HYPE hitting new all-time highs while Ethereum remains below its peak. However, the outperformance must be sustained to confirm Phase 3. Until then, the market remains in Phase 2.

Price action is not the only way to identify altseason. Another key signal is Bitcoin dominance versus total altcoin market cap. Bitcoin dominance measures how much of the total crypto market cap is made up of Bitcoin. In a Bitcoin-led market, dominance rises above 60% while the altcoin market cap trends down. In contrast, during altseason, Bitcoin dominance breaks down while the total altcoin market cap rallies and breaks out. This does not necessarily mean Bitcoin falls—its price can still rise—but altcoins rise faster.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/xR8yelyJ/

The charts above show Bitcoin dominance breaking down and the total altcoin market cap breaking out. Dominance now has a confirmed bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows, while the altcoin market cap has reversed into a bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows. Together, this is the strongest confirmation of altseason we have seen in this cycle.

It finally seems like altseason is here. The signals are clear, the false starts are behind us, and institutions are now showing a preference for Ethereum over Bitcoin. But altseason does not mean you should rotate your entire position from Bitcoin into altcoins. Experienced cycle traders know that the real strategy is to let altcoins grow your Bitcoin stack. Accumulate altcoins, take profits during the outperformance, and use those gains to buy more Bitcoin.

July Delivered. What’s Next for August?

Last month, we set a July target for Bitcoin to create a new all-time high around $117K–$118K. July more than delivered, with a new all-time high at $123K, and it ultimately closed the month right at our target zone, up 8% for July. The bullish structure has been fully confirmed, setting up the back half of the year in a strong position.

Now we turn to August. Historically, August has been a bearish month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -0.23%. Nine of the last 14 Augusts have closed red, including the last three in a row. On the surface, history doesn’t favour a green month.

But this cycle is different. Bitcoin’s strength lies in its extremely bullish market structure and in a factor it has never had in past cycles: institutional demand. Institutions have been the primary driver of this bull run, alongside the rising global money supply. These factors could still override August’s historical weakness, even as the market’s confidence in a September rate cut has wavered. With over a month until the next FOMC meeting, sentiment has room to shift. Two key CPI prints and the rollout of new tariffs will land before the decision, offering clarity on the Fed’s next move. Historically, markets have been quick to front-run anticipated policy shifts, which makes a bullish August entirely plausible despite current uncertainty.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/hWcelaAb/

The current chart continues to show clear bullish momentum. Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase, moving sideways and building energy for its next leg up.

Price action is now testing the lower edge of this consolidation range, and with August being historically a bearish month, there is a chance we see a pullback towards the previous all-time high around $112K. This area aligns with the 55-day exponential moving average, which should act as a key bounce level if a sustained move lower occurs.

However, if August bucks its historical trend—as we expect it will—the breakout target from this consolidation range sits between $131.5K and $136K. These levels are supported by the 1.414 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels, as well as the central pivot range target at $132K.

In the News:

Liberation Day Tariffs Set to Resume on August 1:

A dominant theme this year has been tariffs, with the event that shocked markets occurring in April—dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump himself. A broad blanket of tariffs was placed on multiple countries, then delayed by 90 days to allow trade deal negotiations with the US. That deadline was later pushed to 1 August.

During the pause, several deals have been reached, most notably between the United States and the European Union. Countries that have not secured agreements by 1 August are expected to face the return of the Liberation Day tariffs.

Three Major Bills Passed During Crypto Week:

This month saw the inaugural Crypto Week, expected to be a milestone for crypto regulation, with three major bills targeted for passage: the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Act.

While the week started with a surprise setback as the initial vote to pass all three bills failed, a second vote days later saw all three approved. The GENIUS Act was signed into law on 18 July, marking a landmark moment for US crypto regulation and a strong step forward for the industry.

Geopolitical Escalations:

The conflict Trump claimed he could end within a day of taking office has once again moved to the forefront of investors’ minds. Frustrated by Russia’s continued refusal to engage in ceasefire or peace talks, Trump shortened his ceasefire deadline from 50 days to roughly 10.

If Russia does not comply, the US has threatened expanded sanctions and additional tariffs impacting all countries trading with Russia. This new deadline, expected in early August, is a critical factor to watch as it could influence market price action in the first weeks of the month.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in July 2025:

Bitcoin rose by 8% in July.
Ethereum dominated, rising by 49% in July.
Tron slipped to 10th, being jumped by Lido Staked Ethereum and Dogecoin.
HBAR continues to climb the ranks, up 67% and into the top 20 projects by market cap.
The total crypto market cap grew by 14.18% in July.

Video of the month:

Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan and US Crypto plans for the next 5 years...

Education: What to Avoid This Altseason

If this month has taught us anything, it is that holding spot Bitcoin remains the most rewarding investment strategy. As shown in our opening section, the Satoshi-era wallets turned modest investments into generational wealth simply by holding. They didn’t trade in and out, they didn’t chase the hype, and they certainly didn’t use leverage.

Now that we’re in altseason, the allure of chasing fast gains is everywhere. Narratives will explode overnight, and social media will be flooded with people bragging about their 100x winners. The biggest challenge is sticking to your plan. For most investors, that means holding your Bitcoin, using altcoins only as a tool to accumulate more Bitcoin, and most importantly, avoiding leverage.

The path to wealth in Bitcoin is simple and has been proven cycle after cycle:

Step 1: Buy spot Bitcoin

Step 2: Do not use leverage

Step 3: Be patient and wait

It sounds almost too simple, but this is the formula that works. Most people fail to follow it because they crave action, chase short-term returns, or convince themselves that leverage is a shortcut to wealth.

Leverage offers the illusion of easy profits, but in reality it is a ticking time bomb. You pay daily fees to keep positions open, and your exposure to the market is amplified. Even the smallest fluctuation can wipe out 100% of your funds. This month was a perfect example. Bitcoin spent over two weeks consolidating between $116K and $120K, a move of less than 3%, yet billions in leveraged positions were liquidated. Traders lost everything in a market that barely moved.

History tells the same story. Every Bitcoin bear market has seen brutal drawdowns of 80% or more. These periods are designed to shake out the impatient and punish those overexposed with leverage. If the Satoshi-era whale had ever used leverage, they would never have survived the 80%+ drawdowns that defined prior bear markets. Their eventual multi-billion-dollar fortune was only possible because they did the simplest thing: held spot Bitcoin with patience.

The Rule of 90 is another grim reminder of why most traders fail. According to this rule, 90% of novice traders will lose 90% of their capital within their first 90 days. Meanwhile, 100% of Bitcoin holders who have held spot for longer than 4 years have always been in profit. The contrast between trading and simply holding could not be clearer.

Leverage is not for investors. Investors are the ones with long-term conviction who survive the cycles and never become forced sellers. Leverage amplifies mistakes, turns normal volatility into existential risk, and destroys the one thing you need most to succeed in Bitcoin: time in the market.

The lesson is simple but profound: buy spot Bitcoin, avoid leverage, and be patient. It may feel boring, but boring is what builds lasting wealth in Bitcoin. Excitement and leverage are what get traders liquidated.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Surprises from Powell as Bitcoin Continues to Outpace the Pack

Thu, 26 Jun 2025 12:00:59 +1000

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Powell testified once more, and markets barely reacted as it turned out to be a mixed day across the crypto space. Jerome Powell took the stage at the Senate Banking Committee for the second part of his testimony. Two days' worth of speeches ultimately did little to shift investor expectations. He stuck to script, warning that while tariffs could result in a one-time price jump, the risk of more persistent inflation is enough to keep the Fed cautious. With rate cuts still expected this year, the central bank remains in wait-and-see mode, holding steady until there’s more clarity on inflation trends. Markets continue to price in two cuts for the second half of 2025, with the first likely in September. Powell remains resolute in his stance: the Fed will not rush into easing policy, even under pressure from President Trump.

A strange day for crypto. Markets were predominantly red despite Bitcoin holding above $107K and up over 1% on the day. Ethereum fell over 1%, Solana dropped nearly 2%, and the total altcoin market cap slipped 0.88%, while Bitcoin dominance continued to push higher, rising 0.67% and nearing 66%. With 2025 halfway done, Bitcoin dominance shows no signs of slowing. The 2021 high of 73.63% could well be within reach. This cycle is different. It is a Bitcoin-dominated run, driven by institutional interest that is clearly focused on BTC over altcoins. That reinforces the importance of maintaining a Bitcoin-heavy portfolio and not rotating too early into alts. That said, it does not mean altcoins will not have their moments. We have seen standout performances from spotlighted names like XRP, SUI, and HYPE—each offering strong returns when bought during periods of correction. Timing will be key. If Bitcoin dominance genuinely breaks down, that is when it will make sense to rotate. Until then, stay focused on BTC and accumulate quality alts during periods of weakness.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($37.09)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/WHW30kBC/

HYPE followed the broader altcoin pullback, falling 1.32% yesterday as it continues to cool off after its recent rally. It is currently battling to hold the 21EMA, a level that has acted as key support during HYPE’s bullish structure. If that level fails, we could see a return to the blue zone from which it bounced over the weekend.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/2wc172v9/

Bitcoin continues to lead, grinding higher over the last 24 hours and riding bullish momentum while using the 21EMA as dynamic support. Eyes now turn to the next key level at $109.5K, which has acted as resistance in the past and will likely be tested again.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 25 Jun: $ + 207.4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Ceasefire Relief Lifts Markets as Risk Sentiment Rotates Back In

Wed, 25 Jun 2025 16:23:07 +1000

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Markets have continued to push higher following the ceasefire, but the resolution has not come without criticism, particularly from Donald Trump. The US President voiced his disapproval of both Israel and Iran in his usual blunt style.

The ceasefire agreement gave each side a window to de-escalate. Israel had until the 24th hour and Iran until the 12th hour to halt attacks. In theory, this meant a full stop to hostilities beyond those deadlines. However, despite agreeing to the terms, both parties continued to launch strikes. The situation escalated to the point where Trump took to Truth Social, urging Israel: “DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS,” even telling them to turn their planes around, stating that any further strike would be a violation. He later suggested they would conduct a “friendly plane wave” to Iran.

But his dissatisfaction did not stop there. In a short interview clip now circulating online, Trump summed up the chaos in his own words:

‘They don’t know what the … they’re doing'.

A colourful summary, but regardless of opinions, the war now appears to be behind us and the markets are responding accordingly. The S&P500 just closed its strongest day since 21 February and is now less than 1% away from its all-time high. The Nasdaq is even closer, sitting just 0.30% from the record it set earlier this year.

While Bitcoin has not matched the momentum of equities, it remains green and bullish. It is up nearly 8% from the lows seen just two days ago, though still underperforming the S&P and Nasdaq over the last 24 hours.

The broader market has clearly moved away from the risk-off sentiment. Gold is down over 3% in just over a week and crude oil has plunged to $65, losing 15% in two days. That kind of price action reflects a major capital rotation. Typically, when transitioning back into a risk-on environment, money first flows from defensive assets into traditional risk assets like equities, before rotating into more ‘speculative’ markets such as Bitcoin and altcoins.

We have already seen the first phase of this rotation, with capital moving out of gold and oil and into the S&P and Nasdaq. If that trend continues, it is only a matter of time before capital flows into the crypto space, pushing Bitcoin back toward all-time highs and dragging altcoins along with it.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($37.34)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Nnt0uoZa/

Despite a green day across most of the crypto market, HYPE pulled back 2.22%. This is a relatively healthy correction, especially after a three-day rally of nearly 25%. A normal retracement should be welcomed here, particularly one that holds bullish structure.

Price remains above the 21EMA, a key signal that the trend is still in favour of the bulls. If this momentum continues, we can expect a move toward the CPR resistance at $42 in the coming week.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/CkZMmkX6/

Bitcoin is back above $106K and consolidating. It was a relatively slow session by Bitcoin’s standards, rising just 0.6%, but price action remains constructive. The next area of interest sits at $109.5K, where resistance is expected. If this level breaks, the path toward all-time highs reopens.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 24 Jun: $ + 57.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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'12 Day War' Over: Bulls Regain Control

Wed, 25 Jun 2025 16:15:31 +1000

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After a weekend of strikes and escalating tension, the US is now directly involved in the Israel-Iran conflict. But this morning, we wake up to US President Trump announcing a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, dubbing the standoff the ‘12 Day War’. The ceasefire is expected to take effect within the next 24 hours.

While Iran did launch missiles at a US base in Qatar prior to the announcement, no injuries were reported and only one of the nineteen missiles actually hit the base.

Despite initial claims that the ceasefire was fake, a senior Iranian official has confirmed the agreement, mediated by Qatar, is legitimate and in place.

In hindsight, the market’s hesitation last week was spot on. This brief period of conflict didn’t lead to a broader breakdown, and while gold and oil rallied, they didn’t break out far enough to suggest a prolonged war was on the cards. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq all saw relatively shallow pullbacks considering the geopolitical weight.

Risk-on sentiment is back in full force. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have essentially regained all ground lost over the past couple of weeks, and the crypto market is even greener.

Source: https://cryptobubbles.net

Bitcoin is up nearly 5%, reclaiming $105K and erasing its entire weekend drawdown. Many altcoins have printed double-digit gains in the last 24 hours, fully reversing losses from the US-Iran exchange.

Investor confidence is back. Sentiment is rising, up nearly 20 points, pushing the BTC Fear and Greed Index from neutral into greed territory. It's clear in the charts: the war risk is behind us, risk-on assets are rallying again, and bulls are firmly in control. With no major distractions ahead, Bitcoin looks set to retest its all-time high in the coming weeks. Once again, this period proves that times of war often provide opportunities to accumulate. And while markets have bounced, prices are still lower than they were a week ago. Momentum is strong and firmly with the bulls. It’s not too late to average into a Bitcoin position or accumulate undervalued altcoins.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.19)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ug1IhLst/

HYPE continues its strong recovery, up over 6% in the last 24 hours and now nearly 25% off its Saturday low. The key demand zone we highlighted has held up well. Despite a lower wick printing a new low, the daily candle never closed below support, which is a bullish sign. If momentum continues, a move back to $42 looks likely, with that level representing CPR resistance from its prior consolidation.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/11l9q6he/

Bitcoin is back in charge. After briefly retesting $100K overnight, BTC printed five out of seven strong green candles, bouncing nearly 6% from the overnight low. It has now reclaimed the CPR range, all major moving averages, and the key $104K resistance. Bulls have control of both structure and momentum, with a clear runway to $109K and a potential retest of the all-time high over the coming weeks.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 23 Jun: $ + 27.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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A Wild Weekend of War

Wed, 25 Jun 2025 16:09:04 +1000

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On Saturday, the US struck three nuclear sites in Iran, effectively confirming its direct involvement in the Israel-Iran war. Trump had previously warned that a decision would be made within two weeks on whether to intervene. Combine that with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu urging the US to get involved, and he’s now got his wish. Tel Aviv’s stock market jumped 5.2% on the news of the attack, as investors viewed US involvement as a bullish signal for regional stability and Israel’s security outlook.

In a press conference following the strikes, Trump suggested the attacks could pave the way for peace, claiming it may now be easier to reach a deal with Iran. before ending with a final threat: “Peace or tragedy for Iran.”

Markets reacted sharply. Bitcoin dropped back to $100K on the announcement, with altcoins turning even deeper red. Sentiment slipped back into fear territory as investors waited to see whether Iran would retaliate. Safe to say they have not backed down. Missiles continue to be launched into Israel, and Iranian officials have warned the US: “Americans should expect greater damage and blows than ever before.”

Following the initial drop, Bitcoin managed to stabilise and consolidate above $102K. That was until late last night, when Iran approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US strikes. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through this key waterway. Bitcoin immediately sold off, dropping below $100K for the first time since May 8, hitting a low of $98K. Altcoins corrected even harder.

Outside the majors, most altcoins are either approaching or already below their April lows. For context, Bitcoin was at $75K when alts were last at these levels. This highlights just how weak altcoins are in the current market, even while Bitcoin battles to stay above $100K. Bitcoin dominance has now risen to nearly 66%, its highest level since January 2021.

Although BTC’s bounce from $98K has lifted sentiment back into neutral territory, the market remains extremely nervous.

The US has now gone to China for assistance in preventing the closure of the Strait, though it is unlikely their plea will be met with much enthusiasm. China and Iran are allies, and China has consistently backed Iran in recent years.

With war-related uncertainty dominating sentiment, no one truly knows what is coming next. Further retaliation from Iran, possible involvement from Russia or China — the future is unclear. But smart money will likely use this period of conflict as an opportunity to accumulate undervalued altcoins and continue buying Bitcoin.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($35.30)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JLiE5rdQ/

HYPE was down over 8% yesterday before reversing to close nearly 4% higher. It was an impressive bounce considering the broader correction it has been in over the last week. The support zone has continued to hold, with no daily closes below it, but price wicks have printed new lower lows, breaking the bullish structure. The 55EMA has been a consistent bounce level for these wicks and is expected to remain key if retested.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/1EbiwD40/

Bitcoin remains structurally bearish. Both price action and momentum currently favour the bears. BTC lost the critical $100K level but found a solid bounce from the $98K bullish supply zone. It is a strong move off the lows, but so far not enough to break bearish control. BTC is currently being rejected from the 21EMA, which could send it back to retest $100K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 22 Jun: (data not available at the time of writing).

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.