Reach out to us at Stormrake for further market insight and allow us to help you navigate the sea of mania and laser-eye memes, so that you can realise your goals in the market!

Arguably the most impactful six months in Bitcoins’ history has come to a close. The long awaited approval and trading of the Spot Bitcoin ETF occurred within the first fortnight of the year. This momentum propelled BTC to new all time highs of $73,737.94 prior to the fourth Bitcoin Halving (the first time a new BTC ATH has occurred before the halving event). Shortly after, we saw BTC trickle its way back down into the 55k region before attempting to reclaim the key 70k level, this was on the back of the Ethereum Spot ETF approval hype and bullish sentiment.

Whilst BTC reclaimed 70k for a mere 3 hours, the first domino fell in the form of a hawkish statement by Jerome Powell, which saw a quick shift in macroeconomic sentiment thus causing BTC to relinquish 70k. This statement on the 1st of June set the tone for the rest of the month as we have seen BTC continue to fall and is currently battling to stay above 60k. To add insult to injury, it was recently announced that Mt. Gox were set to begin repayments of lost funds in July totalling $9 Billion. A 15% pullback from the high of the month, not to mention altcoins bleeding and some finding themselves at prices not seen since October 2023 with 50% pullback from their highs on the year.

Could June be a teaser of what to expect over the back half of the year? The macro sentiment shift has made its way to cryptocurrency which has seen BTC and altcoins experience the brunt of the shift. The shift in Bitcoin sentiment can be measured by the ‘Fear and Greed Index’, when sentiment is bullish, the reading of the index is higher. As seen below, we currently sit at a reading of 40 and fearful, a harsh contrast to the beginning of the month where the market was greedy with a reading of 72.

Source:  https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

As we look onto the second half of the year and what it may look like for Bitcoin, one form of analysis we conduct is a technical outlook on a weekly timeframe. The chart below shows a key similarity between this current cycle and the last, in 2021 we saw BTC set an ATH before a severe pullback into the ‘Golden Ratio’, this refers to the zone of 0.5-0.618 of the Fibonacci Retracement tool. When looking for potential pullback levels, the Fibonacci retracement is a crucial one, within this tool, we look for the ‘Golden Pocket’ which more often than not sees price enter that zone. This not only occurred last cycle, but there is also a corresponding Fair Value Gap (blue rectangle) around the same price region. These fair value gaps often get filled (filled 80% of the time), a FVG being filled means price action enters the box and fills the majority of the box (yes there were recent wicks into the FVG, but it didn’t fill the majority of the box, therefore it is still active). These price levels of ~50-52k have been a pivotal level for past price action for BTC, providing both support and resistance. This remains valid as shown by the orange horizontal line. As this is a higher timeframe analysis, it would be expected that BTC reaches these levels within a few months IF it is to come down at all. IF BTC is to reach these levels, it may be treated as an opportune time to pick up some more BTC to strengthen your BTC positions.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/CcjdM0Cq/

Whilst the sentiment has shifted, with weekly technical analysis potentially suggesting lower prices over the next few months, this does not alter our long term view on Bitcoin. If we are to refer back to the last cycle, the pullback was not the end of the bull market as we saw BTC rally up and create another ATH. Coupled with the expectation of 2025 being an extremely aggressive year of interest rate cuts. We are expecting to continue on with the bull market and push to never before seen prices in late 2024 or 2025 (as seen by the dashed arrow on the chart above).

• Bitcoin is still a very young asset. The attendees at BTC Prague are extremely captivated and all in on the asset. However, mainstream has barely scratched the surface of BTC. Meaning there is a lot of growth to go.

• Over the last six months, government actions across the world have encouraged a growing push towards privacy and self custody over your assets. There are a number of projects quietly working on technical solutions to ensure freedom.

• Notes and Other Stuff Transmitted by Relays (NOSTR) is set to play a big part in the future of the internet. NOSTR is a messaging protocol but also so much more.  It unlocks a new layer of the internet that will include payments and all sorts of apps.  Think of it as an open “App Store”.  Lots of interesting projects are building on top.

Michael Saylor's 21 Rules of Bitcoin (BTC Prague 2024)

Mt Gox set to begin Bitcoin cash repayments in July 2024, rumoured to be worth $9 billion USD:

Coming into 2024, it was expected that the US would see three interest rate cuts. Following the most recent FOMC statement, the expectations have been lowered to only expect one cut of 25 basis points. 

We can anticipate 2025 to be an aggressive cutting season with FOMC now seeing 5 rate cuts totalling 1.25 percentage points.

A year of aggressive rate cuts will likely result in bullish price action from Bitcoin and other risk on assets. Could we be in for the frenzied bull market that every market participant is eagerly waiting for? Only time will tell, but if rate cuts go to plan, probability should suggest a  good chance of BTC finally reaching six figures and the bull market to be in full swing. 

For the last 50 years, Saudi Arabia has sold their oil to the world in the currency of the United State Dollar. This deal was signed in 1974, just two years after the US decoupled its currency from Gold and moved to the USD. With Saudi being able to settle their oil sales in any currency regardless of who the deal is between is a major threat to the USD but bullish for other currencies. Bitcoin may also be used to settle a transaction, thus strengthening the long term bullishness of Bitcoin. Could this be the beginning of the end for USD as the global currency, will another currency fill this void, potentially Bitcoin.

As Artificial Intelligence continues to gain traction within the world, AI cryptocurrencies follow suit. Fetch.AI (FET), SingularityNET (AGIX) and Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) are three of the largest AI projects within the crypto space. These three projects have seen astronomical gains since the AI hype began in late 2022, FET is up 2900%, OCEAN 500% and AGIX at 350%. It has been announced that these three projects will merge into one project,  Artificial SuperIntelligence Alliance (ASI). This merge is set to launch on July 15.

For those who hold any of the three tokens, they will need to be converted into ASI. There will be two options:

For those holding tokens on a centralised exchange:

• Tokens should automatically be converted by the exchange

For those holding tokens on a hardware wallet:

• A swap mechanism will be available that users will be able to access to and swap their tokens

Conversion rates into ASI:

• FET will migrate to $ASI, at a conversion rate of 1 FET to 1 $ASI

• AGIX tokens migrate to $ASI, at a conversion rate of 1 AGIX to 0.433350 $ASI

• OCEAN tokens migrate to $ASI, at a conversion rate of 1 OCEAN to 0.433226 $ASI

The existing FET, AGIX and OCEAN tokens will continue to trade on exchanges independently. Once third-party integrations are finalised, the ASI token will be launched and FET, AGIX and OCEAN will cease to trade independently and merge to the ASI token.

The crypto market has had some great momentum.

The ups and downs of crypto during the current bull market cycle can affect the way your potential tax liability will fall at the end of this financial year.

Given we have had a huge run since November to specifically March/April due to the BTC ETC news, ALT coins and particular memes coins. The market has now come off these highs quite substantially, mostly for ALT coins, which for some are down at least 50-70% since their high in March and April.

Your entire capital gains and losses are combined within the financial year and the remainder net capital gain, if any, will be added to your income and tax applicable to your marginal tax rate.

On the assumption that you have made any REALISED gains this financial year, (coins sold for a profit to either fiat or another coin), it may be worthwhile reviewing some of your positions, particularly any ALT coins that may be in an unrealised loss position and turning this into a realised loss, i.e selling.

This means that if you have had any capital gains during this financial year, there is still time to offset these against any potential unrealised loss positions you may have, offsetting the current realised capital gains to date and lowering any potential tax liability.

This must be done prior to the end of the 30th of June, this Sunday!!

Be aware however that if you are looking to buy these alt coins back at some stage, as you believe there will be future growth, you can do so, however your cost DATE will be reset for the 12 months 50% CGT discount, so you will need to weigh up this benefit in respect to our particular circumstances and outlook.

For those that would like to begin their preparation of their tax preparation in July/August please send an email to (info@cryptotaxaus.com.au) and they will send out an enquiry form to begin the process.

This will be particularly beneficial to those that have made some significant realised gains this financial year and would like to know their potential tax liability and plan accordingly.
Note, that we can prepare the reporting and an estimate of potential tax liability, however lodgement and payment will still be your tax return due date as we can hold off lodging until such time.

For those that have not watched the Tax Planning Livestream the link is below:

https://www.youtube.com/live/6F-uz471nQ4

Written by Alexandar Artis

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

The ever changing crypto environment quickly moved on from the BTC halving and onto the highly anticipated Spot Ethereum ETF, which looks to be all but ready to go. As anticipated, Bitcoin experienced a somewhat slow and sideways month post halving. The month of May had seen the lowest volumes traded since September 2023 when Bitcoin was approximately $26,000 USD (the month prior to Bitcoin beginning its rally). At one point Bitcoin was down 11% after its halving and broke below $60,000 and reached $56,500 before ending the month after halving 10% up at $70,000. 

Over this last month, the crypto market has seen Ethereum outperform Bitcoin. The ETHBTC chart below shows Ethereum potentially breaking out of its long term downtrend. It seems as if the spot Ethereum ETF approval may be the perfect catalyst for Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin and really kick off the Bull Market.

A clearer view of the image above can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/SFANE1Gg/

The impact a spot crypto ETF can have on an asset should not be underestimated, as we witnessed Bitcoin create new all-time highs (ATH) approximately two months after the approval of its spot ETF. On approval (Jan 11) BTC was still a ~43% move from its ATH, at the time of writing, ETH is only 25% away from its ATH. Does this mean ETH is likely to create a new ATH faster than BTC did post ETF approval? 

The potential impact of CBDCs on cryptocurrencies can only be hypothesised, as they will both coexist within the financial system. A major demand for cryptocurrency is individual freedom it provides for one to store their wealth and do so online. The introduction of CBDCs will most likely cause a shift in demand for cryptocurrencies and potentially impact the value of said assets. With certain investors rotating their funds from the ‘highly volatile’ space that is crypto into government regulated CBDCs as they may see it as ‘safer’. 

As mentioned, CBDC's and Bitcoin will coexist, this will not change the fact that bitcoiners are against the principles of CBDCs. CBDCs stand for everything that cryptocurrency is against. They pose a serious threat to individuals' freedom as they are centralised and allow governments to gain unprecedented control of their populations' financial lives.

Whilst the majority of countries have begun researching CBDCs, congress has recently passed a bill banning the Federal Reserve from Issuing a CBDC for the US dollar. The news of the world's largest economy currently banning CBDC issuance is incredibly bullish for cryptocurrency as Bitcoin will remain the most sought after digital currency in the world.

Donald Trump recently came out as pro Bitcoin but also stated that there would never be a CBDC under his watch. That's a staggering development and one that bitcoiners applauded.

Presidential Candidate Donald Trump endorsing cryptocurrency

Less than 4 months after the inception of the Spot Bitcoin ETF. It has been reported that approximately 1 million BTC (worth ~$70 billion) is being held in custody for the Spot ETFs, spread across 534 institutions.

See the largest 25 hedge funds in the US. 13 are now providing their clients with opportunities to purchase Bitcoin with Millennium Mgmt being the major holder with over 27,000 BTC held valued at approximately $1.8 billion USD.

This buying was the major catalyst of launching Bitcoin past all time highs earlier this year. Whilst this launched the price from $26,000 to $74,000 within a short six months, it is extremely bullish for Bitcoin in the long run as more institutions will continue to adopt Bitcoin and now Ethereum.

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

The 4th Bitcoin halving has finally arrived, the 840,000th block has been mined. Is this where the fun begins or will we have to wait a little longer?

A clearer view of the image above can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/hXx6mv9Y/

Whilst the Bitcoin halving is one of the most anticipated crypto events every four years, the following month hasn’t yielded the greatest blow off returns. It has been quite the opposite with sideways price action. 

A clearer image of the chart above can be found here ---> https://www.tradingview.com/x/hjOXc3H5/ 

BTC Halving explained by the great Andreas Antonopoulos 

• BTC Halving saw trading volumes spike like no other with over $50 billion volume traded.
• Hong Kong’s Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF’s have launched. Whilst not the first to launch a BTC ETF, they are the first to create and launch an Ethereum ETF. 
• Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is expected to approve the first batch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs before the end of the year. 
  
• Post halving, it has been recorded that the electrical costs to mine one Bitcoin is approximately $77,400 USD. At the time of writing, miners are having to spend approximately $17,000 more in electricity for each mined BTC, currently worth $60,000 USD. 
  
• Founder of the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance, Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has pleaded guilty to money laundering violations and has been sentenced to four months in prison. 
  

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

Just before we dive into this month's edition of The Rake Review, the Stormrake team which is currently hiring and expanding hopes you enjoyed the Easter break with your loved ones. As you may have noticed, our team has tripled in recent months and are still on the lookout for talented, passionate and focused crypto traders, developers and brokers, so if you or anyone you know fits that description, please send them our way.

Our mission and vision is clearer than ever before and our capacity to serve you, our valued clients and crypto investors, has gone from strength to strength and we're building some truly incredible tools and resources for you to take advantage of right away. For now, you have 7 day a week, 365 days a year access to an elite team of crypto brokers, so please feel free to use that resource by calling or emailing us with your requests and inquiries. 

Without further ado, let's dive into The Rake Review!

A clearer image of the chart can be found here ---> https://www.tradingview.com/x/jOaTF0Bp/

You may be looking at the eye-watering returns of these memecoins and thinking to yourself, this is beyond ludicrous.... How can I get involved? I mean for goodness sake, WIF (hat stays on) has pulled a 12x in the last 3 months alone and makes DOGE paltry 172% return look amateur. 
As this is our 4th cycle in crypto, we're here to tell you that you haven't seen anything yet as the silly season has only just begun. However, please don't misconstrue our understanding of market cycles as an endorsement of memecoins. This kind of risk is not for everyone.

Although the return profile has many throwing whole chunks of capital and deploying a spray and pray methodology, we're here to cool your jets and provide some insights on how to potentially play these memetic coins if you wish to partake in the madness.

Tip #1 - Don't marry your positions - WIF isn't the future, just the latest craze.

Tip #2 - Don't waste your time hunting microcaps, it's a recipe to get rugged.

Tip #3 - Respect strength as you're better off having exposure to the category leaders.

Tip #4 - Keep a small selection of memecoins in the portfolio, 2 or 3 should do the job.

Tip #5 - Size the allocation and exposure relative to your overall Bitcoin position.

Tip #6 - It's incredibly unwise to play memecoins if you have zero Bitcoin exposure.

With these tips in mind, you're always welcome to give your crypto broker a call as they're always happy to help you avoid common traps and pitfalls within the wild west.

And now it's 2024 and we are part of a renewed bull cycle. This time, we have all the experience gathered over multiple 4 year cycles. That experience is there for our clients to draw on and use. For Stormrake clients, the service provides not only execution but the benefit of direct access to an experienced broker who has seen all the mistakes and all the successes of previous years.

Australian banks get brought to the coal face by Sky News for their massive overreach and misuse of supposed consumer protections.

• MicroStrategy Completes $1.05 Billion Offering of Convertible Notes at 0% Coupon and 50% Conversion Premium with Bitcoin Use of Funds.
• Thorchain & BASE surge into top 5 chains by volume signalling demand for new ways to move funds on-chain.
• March 12th saw net inflows of 1 Billion dollars into spot Bitcoin ETFs. We keep sharing the same sentiment, don't fight these inflows and sell your Bitcoin cheap!
• Assets are moving from Ethereum into L2s with Arbitrum taking top spot for bridge inflows.
• Kucoin and its founders have been charged with a myriad of money laundering and unlicensed money transmission charges.
• March 2024 was the first month in THORChain history with over $10b in trading volume.
  
• Fetch.ai, Ocean Protocol, and Singularitynet to Merge Tokens Into 'Artificial Superintelligence'.
• The FTX/SBF saga has concluded its sorry saga as Scam Bankrupt-Fraud has been sentenced to 25 years in prison.

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

While we hope you enjoyed downtime during the holiday season and a lazy warm January, markets were buzzing with news and excitement. Crypto markets experienced multiple significant waves as massive players entered the market. We bring you another packed Rake Review to fill you in on the important and interesting developments.

Inflation numbers out of Australia showed official inflation (CPI) at a relatively low 4.1% down from over 5% last quarter. The quarterly increase was the smallest in almost 2 years. 

Why is this important? Well, everyone is closely following inflation numbers to see if the RBA will be likely to end its record breaking tightening policy and start lowering interest rates. Home owners (Variable Mortgage holders) are hurting from the quick rise in rates over the last year especially and this is starting to bite in the real economy.

If the loosening begins, we may see very bullish conditions for asset prices. Property could rise for the first time since rates started to bite and equities are already on a bullish path. However, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market could be the biggest winners. There are many reasons for this view. Firstly, Bitcoin's higher volatility pays dividends in a bullish and low interest rate environment (not literally). Secondly, Bitcoin could be a winner because this will coincide with the bullish part of the Bitcoin cycle. Bitcoin is already on a winning path with the halving approaching and the US Spot ETF's approved. Adding in to the mix improved homeowner cashflow and we could see a Bull Run for the ages!

In terms of Market Cycles, we are heading to the juicy part of the cycle where the biggest profits are made. If history is a guide, Bitcoin is heading towards the Hope & Optimism stage this year and possibly complete Thrill and Euphoria in 2025. Now History is just a guide and this time could be different but the exact same conditions exist. A whole new wave of Buying (Demand) is here with ETF's buying in bulk against the backdrop of Bitcoins fixed supply. There will only be 21 Million!

On the first day of trading Bitcoin ETF's saw $4.6 Billion in inflows with Blackrock doing over $1Billion alone.  The below graph shows the ETF inflows by fund. As the ETF's swallow more and more Bitcoin it will become evident that there is not enough to go around and the price will reflect that monumental demand shift.

Everyone has probably heard about the disaster that was FTX in 2022. The exchange went down in metaphorical flames and took with it the whole market leading to sub $17,000 Bitcoin and the absolute panic of November 22. 

It was all caused by FTX's subsidiary trading company Alameda Research losing Billions on the biggest trade of the last Bull market cycle. The GBTC premium trade brought down some huge names that are no longer here. We won't go into it too deeply here but its really the central issue that brought the last bull run to a premature halt. We thought that SBF (Sam Bankman-Fried's) Trial would be the last we heard of that sorry saga however that hope was a tad premature. The great news of the ETF approvals was dampened by the fact that the FTX bankruptcy estate is now finally able to get rid of its GBTC shares and in turn the sale of BTC which pushed the market lower for the biggest DIP we've seen for months.

After a stellar run for Bitcoin and the Alts, Bitcoin dipped in the post ETF approval "Sell the Rumour" phase spurred on by FTX related BTC sales. BTC fell from over $47K to under $39K USD in a fall described by one crypto OG as "What is this a crash for Ants?"

The old heads know that a 15-20% correction on the way up is a healthy consolidation. It was however interesting to see that many were panicking and expecting BTC to fall below $38K USD. It got us thinking about the fear that investors experience being an even more powerful motivator than greed at times.

In the field of behavioural economics there is a concept called "Loss Aversion". This concept states that the emotional and psychological impact of a fall is perceived by investors as more impactful than a gain of the same exact magnitude.

In other words people are irrationally affected by falls more than they should be. It's an interesting concept and we think it played out nicely in January. Here is an asset that is up over 100% even at the very worst of the DIP since November 22. Every investor on this ride should be happy but yet many were fearful. Here is an asset that is heading to a supply shock (The halving) at the exact time of a demand shock (ETF approval) and yet a small fall sees some want to sell.

Well a week on from the worst and BTC has already recovered 10% and Alts are also bouncing. The constant buy pressure from the ETF's is eating up all the cheap BTC from any panicked weak hands.

• Short term pain vs long term gain. FTX/GBTC drawdowns weigh on BTC price in January as ETF demand starts in perpetuity 140,000 BTC was bought in the first 11 days of the ETF's operation.
• In signs that the US economy is over the Banking crisis on 2023 and moving towards a new expansionary cycle of interest rates the Fed Board announced it will be ending the BTFP program propping up the banking system.
  
• Coinbase appeared in court defending itself against the SEC. The SEC has come off significant defeats against its crypto over regulation recently with the largest of those defeats to GBTC. Coinbase is also likely to win with the giant exchange trying to work with regulators without any luck so far.
  
• Dr. Arthur Leffer says “You can have a system that uses #bitcoin as the monetary base”, seemingly endorsing the possibility of major economies being based on BTC. An incredible statement from the "Father of supply-side economics".

In case you wanted to know what the worlds leaders were discussing at Davos January 2024. I guess Covid-19 is no longer an issue.

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.