Stormrake - Insights #Artis

The Unwinding of US Dominance and the Rise of Bitcoin

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:59:19 +1000

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Chinese holdings of US Treasuries have fallen to their lowest level since 2008, now sitting near $694B, down from over $1.3T in 2013. This is not a cyclical shift. It is a structural repositioning that reflects a deeper change in the global financial order.

We have covered this theme consistently. The relative decline of US financial dominance and the erosion of the petrodollar system are no longer theoretical. This chart is one of the clearest signals yet that the world’s second-largest economy is reducing reliance on the US-led system.

The catalyst is simple. The 2022 freezing of Russia’s $300B in reserves reframed Treasuries from risk-free assets into political instruments. For China, holding US debt is no longer just financial, it is geopolitical. In any escalation scenario, those reserves carry risk.

As a result, China is not just diversifying. It is stepping back from a system where control ultimately sits with Washington.

That capital is moving into assets with no counterparty risk. Gold has overtaken Treasuries in global reserve share, with the The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continuing to accumulate. Even when accounting for custodial shifts, the direction is clear. Exposure is falling, and so is trust.

This feeds directly into the de-dollarisation loop. Less demand for dollars means less recycling into Treasuries, placing structural pressure on US funding and exposing the fragility of a system reliant on external buyers.

What makes this cycle different is the emergence of a neutral alternative. Gold plays a role, but Bitcoin introduces something new. A non-sovereign, scarce asset that sits outside the control of any state.

Both sides are already positioning. China holds significant BTC exposure, while the US has formalised its stance with a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This is no longer speculative, it is strategic.

The takeaway is clear. This is not just a reduction in Treasury holdings. It is the gradual unwinding of a system that has defined global finance for decades.

We are watching the early stages of a new order take shape. One where Treasuries lose dominance, gold regains relevance, and Bitcoin emerges as the neutral layer between competing powers.

In simple terms, China is rotating out of political IOUs and into sovereign autonomy. Bitcoin sits at the centre of that shift.

TACO Tuesday:

Yes, it may be Wednesday in Melbourne, but it is still Tuesday in Washington, where once again the US President has driven volatility through late-night social media posts.

Markets were sent into uncertainty after renewed threats targeting Iran, with timelines around potential strikes narrowing and participants counting down to a 10am local deadline. However, in typical fashion, a last-minute reversal has seen Trump announce a two-week delay on any military action, contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has accepted the 2-week ceasefire proposal.

Markets have reacted accordingly. Risk assets have pushed higher on the de-escalation narrative, while oil has seen a sharp unwind, dropping over 17% in a matter of hours as immediate supply fears ease.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,802)

PAXG is rallying on the back of the ceasefire agreement, up over 3%, which was much needed for the bulls. If PAXG can break above the 55 EMA (green line), it will have clear air to push higher and potentially revisit $5,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is rallying, up nearly 4% in a few hours on the back of the ceasefire momentum. Another retest of the key resistance at $71.5K is occurring as we speak, which has been a major trouble point for BTC over the last couple of months. A successful reclaim and hold above this level would be a strong signal for a broader breakout.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

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The Bitcoin Lesson Most Learn Late

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:55:56 +1000

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Time and time again, people view the cryptospace as a place to make quick money, yet the way to be successful within this space is quite simple. It’s to invest and accumulate Bitcoin over time. Many people think they can outperform Bitcoin through a number of avenues, some look for that 100x, others turn to gambling or leverage trading, but eventually the majority find out that they can’t and realise they should’ve been buying Bitcoin the entire time…

For those who were around in January of 2025, it was the memecoin casino on the Solana network when Pump.fun launched. It seemed like everyone was gambling, trying to pick 100x coins, avoiding rug pulls, or launching their own memecoins. Even the US President Donald Trump released his TRUMP memecoin, which was the apex of that period. It marked the point where speculation had completely overtaken any idea of investing.

Polymarket, Kalshi and other prediction markets have also taken off over the last 12 months, allowing users to bet on nearly anything. Markets where people convince themselves they have an edge, but in reality are just trading outcomes in a zero-sum environment, and allegedly where a lot of insider trading is done…

Then you have perps on platforms like Hyperliquid, leveraged trading, where we already know the rule that 90% of people lose 90% of their balance within the first 90 days, yet people continue to believe they will be the exception.

What do all of these periods have in common? None of them are done with the intention of investing, they are all forms of gambling, just packaged differently.

And the data reflects that, with 96% of memecoin participants either losing money or making less than $500, meaning only around 4% made anything meaningful. Prediction markets see roughly 70% of traders lose money, and perps sit somewhere between 70–90% of retail traders getting wiped.

Across all of these, the outcome is the same, most people lose, and this isn’t bad luck but simply the structure of the game itself. These are short-term, high-speed, zero-sum environments where there is no real edge for the average participant, no compounding, no durability, and no room for error, you are either early, lucky or you are exit liquidity.

That’s not investing, and the mistake people make is thinking they can consistently beat these environments, when in reality they are designed so that most people can’t.

Investing is slow, often boring, and requires patience, it’s about owning something and allowing it to compound over time, not constantly chasing narratives or trying to outsmart everyone else in the market.

But most people don’t want that, they want speed, excitement and outsized returns immediately, and that’s exactly what pushes them into the areas where the probability of losing is the highest.

There is a reason people who joined the Solana memecoin casino never returned, they got burned, lost their capital, and left the space with a sour taste in their mouths, while those who simply accumulated Bitcoin, ignored the noise and stayed consistent are still here.

Every cycle this repeats, new participants enter, try to outperform, get pulled into gambling, and eventually exit, while the minority who treat this as investing rather than gambling are the ones who remain and benefit over time.

The path is simple, but not easy, and most people choose to learn it the hard way.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,645)

PAXG has bounced from the zone, up 1%, a positive sign for the bulls but still a long way to go before the bears lose control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

As expected, Bitcoin reached $70k but once again has failed to break above it and been rejected since, now down over 2% from the overnight high and beginning to test bullish momentum, with this level continuing to act as clear resistance and price still stuck within the current range until a clean break or breakdown occurs.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Petrodollar Is Leaking: Bitcoin and the Fragmentation of Global Trade

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:51:23 +1000

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The petrodollar era is no longer defined by dominance, but by dilution.

Since the Strait of Hormuz restrictions began tightening, what was once a theoretical shift has become operational reality. Iran is no longer passively bypassing the dollar system, it is actively enforcing alternatives, and Bitcoin is increasingly sitting alongside this shift as a parallel rail. Tankers moving through one of the world’s most critical oil corridors are now, in select cases, required to settle in Chinese Yuan or through non-SWIFT channels, while BTC and stablecoins underpin the flows that cannot access traditional finance.

This marks a shift from circumvention to coercion.

The implications are structural. For decades, the global oil trade has been anchored to USD settlement, reinforcing a closed loop where energy demand supported dollar liquidity, which in turn fed back into US Treasuries. That loop is no longer intact.

Instead, flows are fragmenting.

China’s CIPS network is absorbing a growing share of cross-border energy transactions, while mBridge is enabling direct settlement between central banks without touching the US financial system. Volume across these rails has already seen a meaningful uptick this year, particularly across BRICS-aligned trade corridors.

Critically, this is not happening in isolation.

Saudi Arabia’s decision not to renew its exclusive dollar agreement in 2024 removed the political anchor of the petrodollar system. The UAE is actively settling trades with China using alternative infrastructure. Iran is now enforcing it at a geographic chokepoint.

The result is a transition from a single dominant system to a multi-polar settlement landscape.

The Yen also enters this equation.

As Japan contends with prolonged currency weakness and rising import costs, there is a growing incentive to diversify settlement exposure, particularly across energy markets. While not a direct challenger to USD dominance, the Yen’s increased utilisation in bilateral trade adds another layer to the fragmentation of global currency flows.

This is how the system shifts. Not through collapse, but through erosion of exclusivity.

Beneath this sovereign-level transition, a second layer is accelerating.

Bitcoin is becoming embedded within the mechanics of trade where traditional rails fail.

While state-level oil contracts are increasingly leaning toward Yuan settlement, the operational layer tells a different story. Sanctioned or semi-sanctioned actors are turning to Bitcoin and stablecoins to facilitate the parts of trade that cannot clear through banks.

This includes ship-to-ship transfers, offshore refuelling, and maritime insurance across shadow fleets. These functions are essential, and increasingly, they are being settled on-chain.

Iran’s integration of crypto mining into its energy strategy reinforces this dynamic. Rather than exporting oil alone, energy is being monetised digitally, bypassing financial restrictions entirely. On-chain flows linked to Iran have already reached significant scale, and the trajectory remains upward.

Bitcoin’s role here is not headline-driven, but it is critical.

It operates as neutral infrastructure in an environment where trust is fragmented and access is restricted. It does not replace fiat systems, it complements and, in some cases, circumvents them.

From a macro perspective, this matters.

As global trade becomes less centralised, the demand for neutral, permissionless settlement layers increases. Bitcoin sits directly in that category, not as a competitor to sovereign currencies, but as a parallel system that gains relevance as fragmentation expands.

Market structure continues to reflect this backdrop.

Bitcoin remains well supported, with buyers stepping in at key levels despite broader macro uncertainty. The resilience in price action suggests underlying accumulation, particularly as this geopolitical narrative strengthens.

This is not a sudden repricing event. It is a gradual shift in how global value moves.

The petrodollar is not dead, but it no longer stands alone.

And in a world where capital flows across multiple systems, Bitcoin is increasingly positioned at the intersection of them all.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,602)

PAXG has retraced back to the top of the downside zone. Now this is the real test for the bulls. Either we get a bounce from this level and push higher, or if PAXG fails to hold the top of the zone, we can expect it to continue its overall downtrend.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is making a move back to $70k after breaking the consolidation range above the previous key level. It has now flipped momentum back to the bulls. The real test will be how it reacts to the $70k level.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The Market Knows: Liquidity Is Returning

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:45:31 +1000

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The latest move in the Fed’s balance sheet tells a story that is hard to ignore.

After nearly two years of controlled contraction, liquidity is no longer being drained quietly. It is being injected aggressively. Right now, the market is being forced to confront a shift that sits at the heart of every cycle: inflation versus solvency.

The great tightening just broke

From 2022 through early 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained a clear path. Quantitative Tightening was in full effect, reducing liquidity, tightening financial conditions, and forcing risk assets to reprice. This was the cost of fighting inflation.

But the latest spike in Treasury holdings changes that narrative entirely.

This is not a gradual slowdown in QT. This is a sharp reversal.

Moves like this do not happen unless something breaks. Whether it is stress in funding markets, pressure in the banking system, or cracks in sovereign debt demand, the Fed has stepped in with size. This kind of vertical expansion signals urgency, not optional policy adjustment.

M2 is turning with it

This is where the bigger picture comes into focus.

For most of the tightening cycle, M2 money supply was contracting or flat. That environment is historically hostile for risk assets, as less money in the system means less capital flowing into equities and crypto.

Now, with balance sheet expansion returning, M2 is likely to follow.

Liquidity does not stay contained. It feeds through the system, lifting bank reserves, easing lending conditions, and allowing capital to move again.

And the relationship here is not subtle. Historically, the 1-year rolling correlation between Bitcoin and M2 has reached as high as 0.94, close to a lockstep move.

Crypto does not respond to narratives. It responds to liquidity.

Inflation vs solvency

This is the real pivot.

QT was designed to bring inflation back under control. It worked to an extent, but at a cost. Financial conditions tightened to the point where something appears to have forced the Fed’s hand.

Now the trade-off is clear. Do you continue tightening and risk systemic stress, or inject liquidity and risk reflation?

Right now, the Fed looks to be choosing stability.

That does not mean inflation is solved. It means it is being deprioritised. Historically, these moments mark a transition. Not immediately inflationary, but structurally supportive for asset prices.

Liquidity is the signal

We have already seen early signs of smart money positioning back into crypto, and that positioning now has a macro tailwind.

When liquidity expands, market behaviour changes. Downside becomes more supported, dips get bought faster, and higher beta assets begin to outperform.

Bitcoin typically leads in the early phase. Altcoins follow once confidence expands.

If M2 trends higher alongside this balance sheet expansion, the conditions for a broader market move strengthen significantly.

The Market Knows What This Is

This could be a temporary facility. It could be a targeted backstop.

But markets do not wait for labels.

They respond to direction. And right now, that direction has shifted.

Liquidity is returning. And capital rarely stays on the sidelines when it does.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,668)

PAXG pulled back 2% after rejection at resistance yesterday, but the reaction from bulls is the key focus here. Price tapped the downside zone and bounced cleanly, continuing to hold above support.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin lost nearly 2% following Trump’s address yesterday, threatening continued action if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened. It has returned to the key level of $66.8K, but the bears now have the slight edge with momentum.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Don’t Get Caught Offside: Smart Money Is Already Positioning

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:38:39 +1000

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Yesterday we covered that April could mark the turning point for Bitcoin. The bearish monthly streak has been broken, April is historically bullish, and smart money has returned to the market.

Today, let’s take that one step further.

What exactly is smart money doing right now, and how do you position alongside it rather than getting caught offside?

Because this is the phase where the gap begins to form.

The clearest signal is coming from institutional flows. March recorded between $1.32B and $1.53B in net ETF inflows, decisively ending a four-month stretch of outflows that drained over $6B from the market. In that same period, ETFs accumulated roughly 38,000 BTC, nearly reversing the 42,000 BTC distributed earlier this year.

This is not hesitation. This is re-accumulation at scale.

At the same time, the sell pressure that defined the recent correction is fading fast. Long-term holder distribution has dropped by 87%, falling from -243,737 BTC in early February to just -31,967 BTC by March. The strongest hands in the market have largely stopped selling, and when that happens, supply tightens quickly.

Less supply, steady demand. That imbalance does not last long.

The broader market structure supports this shift. Futures open interest has reset to around $20.4B, signalling that the forced selling and liquidation-driven downside has largely been cleared. At the same time, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio sits at 10.95, highlighting the presence of significant sidelined capital still waiting to deploy.

Capital is ready. Supply is shrinking.

Meanwhile, smart money continues to act. MicroStrategy accumulated approximately 40,000 BTC throughout March, steadily absorbing supply while sentiment remained uncertain. This is how early positioning looks. It is not reactive, it is deliberate.

And it is happening while most are still waiting.

All of this is unfolding in a market where Bitcoin exchange reserves are sitting near multi-year lows. When demand returns in this environment, price moves fast.

This is the setup most miss.

Retail sentiment is still anchored to the idea of lower prices, shaped by recent volatility and cycle expectations. But the data is pointing the other way. Distribution has ended, accumulation is underway, and demand is quietly building.

Right now, Bitcoin is trading around $68K. Smart money is accumulating in this range, while retail largely sits on the sidelines.

Then price moves.

A 30% expansion takes Bitcoin toward $90K. At that point, hesitation kicks in. The mindset shifts to waiting for a pullback, anchored to the idea that the opportunity was at $68K.

But the market does not always offer a second chance.

The pullback never meaningfully comes, momentum builds, and before long Bitcoin is back into triple-digit territory. What started as hesitation turns into forced decision-making, either buy significantly higher or miss the move entirely.

That is how investors get caught offside.

This is the core message. Invest like smart money, not like the crowd. Because by the time the move feels obvious, price has already moved.

The data is clear. The positioning is clear. The only question now is timing, and that window is closing.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,761)

PAXG has continued its strong recovery, building momentum following the recent correction. While it is still premature to call for new all-time highs, the past few days have been constructive and signal a shift back toward strength.

A clean break of immediate resistance would open the path for a move toward $5,000, with momentum likely to accelerate if gold continues to see inflows. For now, the trend is improving, but confirmation is still needed.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin saw a relatively flat session, with an attempted break above $69K being rejected. Price continues to hover just above the moving averages, holding its position while the market awaits expansion.

The bulls maintain a slight edge in the near term, but Bitcoin remains within its broader range for now.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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April Could Mark the Turning Point for Bitcoin

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:34:51 +1000

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We’ve just wrapped up March and, to many people’s surprise, it looks to have snapped the consecutive bearish streak that had been building and was close to tying the record for Bitcoin’s longest run of red months. That holds as long as Bitcoin remains above $67k by 11am today.

Five red months were still brutal, with Bitcoin retracing around 50% during that period, but we may now be seeing early signs that the bears’ time in control is coming to an end.

Now we enter April, which is historically Bitcoin’s second best performing month, delivering an average return of 33.4%. The timing could not be more interesting. While there is no denying Bitcoin has been in a bear market, March was actually a strong month from a fundamental perspective, even if price only moved up around 1% to 2%.

Smart money quietly returned throughout March. We saw positive spot Bitcoin ETF inflows for the first time in months, alongside an increase in long term holder supply and a continued decline in exchange reserves. These are classic signals of accumulation and suggest stronger hands are stepping back in.

Looking at previous cycles, this is typically when smart money begins to position itself, either towards the end of a bear market or at the early stages of a new cycle, when prices are heavily discounted and sentiment is weak. This is not a call that the bottom is definitively in or that a bull run is about to begin, but it does highlight an important shift.

If larger players are accumulating at these levels and price has not yet reacted significantly, it raises the question of whether this is the kind of environment everyday investors often miss.

Time and time again, retail participants wait for lower prices while smart money accumulates. More often than not, they end up getting caught offside, buying at higher levels and looking back wishing they had acted when sentiment was at its worst.

It is also worth noting that historically, once Bitcoin’s extended bearish monthly streaks of five or more months have come to an end, the market has already formed its bottom. Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but it is a data point that should not be ignored.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,658)

A strong day for PAXG bulls, with price up over 3% and finally breaking out of its recent range. The key challenge now is whether this move can be sustained.

Price is approaching immediate resistance at the 21 exponential moving average, marked by the yellow line. This level could act as a short term barrier, but for now momentum is clearly shifting, with bulls beginning to regain control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is now pushing towards $70k after a strong bounce from the key support level at $66.8k, which has helped flip short term momentum back in favour of the bulls.

Price has also reclaimed all major moving averages, a strong technical signal that momentum is building. If this structure holds, Bitcoin looks well positioned for a retest of the $70k level in the near term.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Rake Review: March 2026

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 18:43:11 +1100

The Shift is Underway

March was the month everything changed for Bitcoin. For much of the year, we highlighted its true purpose. In March, that narrative became reality.

Chaos is Accelerating the Shift:

There are often turning points or key events within the globe that cause a major shift in the globe, usually in the form of revolutions or changes in world powers. These shifts catch most by surprise but those who were able to identify the signs early and position themselves are sitting in the best spot for once the change occurs.

The current conflict that dominated headlines and influenced every market throughout the month has accelerated this shift. The conflict in the Middle East, we saw it occur last year but it only lasted a couple of weeks, markets took a slight detour before recovering and tracking higher.

This conflict has already surpassed a month and isn’t showing signs of ending anytime soon, despite the chaos in the headlines. Historically these events have resulted in investors rotating into extremely low risk assets such as cash and gold. But to many surprise this hasn’t been the case, in fact we have seen capital leave the likes of gold and return into Bitcoin.

It is a sign of a shift in Bitcoin and its role in the global economy.

What we are witnessing is not just a short term reaction to geopolitical stress, but a structural change in how capital behaves under pressure. In previous cycles, moments like this forced a predictable rotation into gold and cash. This time, that playbook is being challenged in real time.

Across the Middle East, investors have been actively selling gold, not because they have lost faith in it as a store of value, but because of its limitations in a fast moving and uncertain environment. Gold is difficult to transport, costly to secure, and inefficient to transact across borders. In contrast, Bitcoin offers instant mobility, divisibility, and self custody. When capital needs to move quickly, those properties matter.

There is also a market structure element at play. Increased selling pressure in physical gold markets has led to local bullion dealers offering below market rates due to imbalances in supply and demand. This creates friction at the exact moment investors need liquidity. Bitcoin, on the other hand, trades in a global, continuous market where liquidity remains accessible regardless of local conditions. The ability to exit at a transparent market price is becoming increasingly valuable.

This shift is already visible in price action. Since the conflict escalated, Bitcoin has held strength and pushed higher, while gold has softened and equities have struggled. That divergence is not noise. It points to early signs of decoupling, a theme we explored in The Bitcoin Regime Change Has Begun and further reinforced in our analysis of shifting monetary dynamics.

Bitcoin is no longer behaving purely as a speculative risk asset. In regions where traditional financial infrastructure is strained or inaccessible, it is actively being used as money. Settlement, preservation of value, and cross border transfer are no longer theoretical use cases, they are being tested in real conditions. As highlighted in Bitcoin at the Strait, this transition from narrative to utility is critical.

At the same time, broader monetary conditions are reinforcing this behaviour. As confidence in fiat systems continues to fluctuate and global liquidity remains uneven, capital is searching for alternatives that are both liquid and independent. Bitcoin is increasingly fitting that role.

The key takeaway is simple. This is not just about one conflict or one month of price action. It is about a redefinition of what investors consider a safe or reliable asset in times of uncertainty. Bitcoin is beginning to earn that status, not through speculation, but through performance under pressure.

The Market Never Closes Anymore:

Keeping on the theme of this broader shift, we are now seeing it move beyond capital flows and into the structure of finance itself. This is where things become more meaningful. It is no longer just about where money is going, but how the system it moves through is being rebuilt.

Traditional finance has always been constrained by time, geography, and layers of intermediaries. Markets open and close. Settlement takes time. Access depends on jurisdiction, permissions, and counterparties. That model worked in a slower, more fragmented world, but it is increasingly out of sync with how capital now behaves.

Crypto infrastructure removes those constraints entirely.

Markets are now operating in a continuous cycle. Capital moves 24/7, reacting instantly to news, macro shifts, and geopolitical developments. There is no delay between regions, no waiting for sessions to overlap, and no downtime where risk cannot be managed. This fundamentally changes how participants interact with markets. Exposure can be adjusted in real time, and liquidity is constantly available rather than concentrated into specific windows.

This shift is not theoretical, it is already being stress tested in real conditions.

Throughout the recent conflict, major geopolitical updates have not waited for market hours. Trump, in particular, has made several market moving statements over weekends, a period where traditional finance is effectively offline. In previous cycles, investors would have been forced to wait, unable to react until markets reopened.

Now, that delay no longer exists.

On platforms like Hyperliquid, traders have been actively positioning in real time, not just in crypto, but in tokenised representations of traditional markets. Oil, the S&P 500, and major equities such as Tesla and Apple have all seen price discovery continue over the weekend, driven by these developments. By the time traditional markets reopen, a significant portion of that price movement has already occurred on-chain.

This is a fundamental shift in where and when markets move.

Hyperliquid sits at the centre of this evolution. It is not just offering an alternative venue for crypto trading, it is building infrastructure that mirrors and, in some areas, surpasses traditional derivatives markets. Onchain order books, deep liquidity, and continuous trading create an environment where capital does not need to wait for legacy systems to catch up.

The significance of this is underscored by its growing integration with traditional finance. The Nasdaq deal with Hyperliquid signals that this is no longer an isolated crypto native experiment. Established financial players are beginning to recognise the advantages of on-chain infrastructure, particularly when it comes to speed, transparency, and global accessibility.

At the same time, tokenisation is accelerating this convergence.

By bringing traditional assets on-chain, tokenisation allows them to inherit the benefits of crypto rails. Assets that were once restricted by market hours can now trade continuously. Settlement becomes instant, ownership becomes more flexible, and access becomes global. The lines between crypto and traditional finance are no longer clear cut, they are beginning to merge.

What this creates is a financial system where capital is always in motion.

Liquidity no longer sits idle waiting for markets to open. It reacts instantly to information, whether that comes from central banks, geopolitical events, or unexpected headlines over the weekend. Price discovery becomes a continuous process rather than a fragmented one, and increasingly, it is happening on-chain first.

The key takeaway is clear. Crypto is not just complementing traditional finance, it is actively replacing some of its core functions. When markets close, crypto stays open. And as more capital, infrastructure, and institutions move in this direction, the question is no longer if traditional finance adapts, but how quickly it can catch up.

A Turning Point Beneath the Surface:

Despite widespread uncertainty and continued pressure across traditional markets, March marked a subtle but important shift for Bitcoin. Breaking the streak of red months, Bitcoin closed March up 1.83%, avoiding what would have been the longest drawdown in its history.

While the gain may appear marginal on the surface, the significance runs far deeper.

March was a fundamentally strong month. Bitcoin not only held its ground but began to decouple from traditional risk assets, outperforming in an environment where equities struggled and gold failed to attract sustained demand. This is the shift we have been highlighting, and in March, it began to materialise in real time.

As we move into Q2, April becomes a focal point.

Historically, April has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest performing months, second only to November. It has delivered an average return of 33.4% and closed green in 10 of the last 15 years. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, it does provide a seasonal tailwind that aligns with the improving conditions we are beginning to see.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/5lWGOSPk/

From a technical perspective, March was largely defined by consolidation.

Price spent the majority of the month ranging, with multiple attempts to break higher failing to gain sustained momentum. This has created a clear structure heading into April. The key level for the bears sits at $60K, while the bulls need to reclaim and hold above $70K. A decisive break and hold beyond either of these levels is likely to dictate the next major move.

Momentum is now beginning to shift.

The bears, after months of control, are showing clear signs of exhaustion. Selling pressure is no longer accelerating, and downside follow through has weakened. On the other side, the bulls are starting to reassert themselves. March saw a return of strong ETF inflows, signalling renewed institutional demand, alongside improving onchain metrics.

Layer on top of that a historically strong month, and the setup becomes increasingly constructive.

If Bitcoin were to align with its historical April average of 33.4%, it would place price in the region of $90K. While that is not a forecast, it provides a framework for what a strong recovery phase could look like. More importantly, a move of that magnitude would likely signal that the bear phase has ended and that the market is transitioning back into expansion.

As always, the focus should not be on a single outcome, but on the shift in conditions.

After months of downside, the balance is beginning to tilt. March may have been modest in percentage terms, but structurally, it was one of the most important months in this cycle so far.

In the News

Aussie Super Funds Eye Bitcoin

A long standing gap within the Australian superfund industry has been its lack of exposure to Bitcoin and digital assets. Despite global momentum, most funds have remained on the sidelines, offering little to no access for clients. That may now be starting to change, with Hostplus reportedly exploring the introduction of digital assets as an investment option.

If implemented, this would mark a meaningful shift. Superannuation represents a significant pool of capital, and even a small allocation to Bitcoin could drive notable demand. While AMP introduced Bitcoin exposure back in 2024 and faced backlash from traditional players like Vanguard, the landscape in 2026 is very different. Adoption has accelerated globally, and Australia now appears to be moving in the same direction.

Tether Moves Towards Full Audit

Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, has announced it will undergo its first full independent audit conducted by a Big Four accounting firm. This is a major step forward for transparency within the digital asset space, particularly given the systemic importance of stablecoins to market liquidity.

Following the stablecoin legislation introduced last year, this move sets a higher standard for accountability and trust. As institutional involvement continues to grow, these developments play a key role in strengthening the foundation of the industry and reducing long standing concerns around reserve backing and stability.

Oil Becomes the Pressure Point

As a result of the Middle East conflict, crude oil has become a focal point for global markets. The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly 20% of global oil flows, has faced disruption, driving a sharp increase in prices.

Crude surged to highs of $120 and is currently trading around $100. With the conflict showing no signs of slowing, some analysts are now projecting significantly higher prices, with prediction markets assigning a 21% probability of oil reaching $200 at some point this year.

The implications of this are broad. Rising oil prices feed directly into inflation, increasing costs across nearly every industry, from transport to manufacturing. This adds further pressure to an already fragile macro environment and reinforces the importance of assets that can operate outside traditional economic constraints.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in March 2026:

Bitcoin increased by 1.83% in March
Ethereum increased by 7.07% in March
PAX Gold fell by 12.8% in March
Hyperliquid was the clear standout up 17.03% in March
The total crypto market cap grew by 1.89%

Video of the month

Australian Banks Are Blocking Bitcoin Purchases…Here's What They Don't Want You to Know.

Adam Hudson and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Understanding Correlation

One of the most important concepts in markets, yet one of the most overlooked, is correlation.

Correlation measures how assets move relative to each other. When assets are positively correlated, they move in the same direction. When they are negatively correlated, they move in opposite directions. This relationship underpins how capital is allocated across markets.

Traditionally, the structure has been clear.

Bitcoin has largely traded as a risk asset, often showing a strong positive correlation with equities. At times, this correlation has been as high as 0.6, meaning Bitcoin and the S&P 500 were broadly moving together. When equities sold off, Bitcoin typically followed.

That relationship is now starting to break down.

As the recent conflict escalated, the S&P 500 moved lower, yet Bitcoin continued to absorb capital. The correlation has not disappeared, but it has weakened significantly, now fluctuating between 0.28 and 0.49. This is a meaningful shift and signals that Bitcoin is no longer tightly bound to equity market behaviour.

As shown below, this breakdown is clearly visible, with correlation becoming more unstable and less predictive of Bitcoin’s direction.

At the same time, Bitcoin is not behaving like a traditional safe haven either.

Gold, which typically benefits during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, has not shown a consistent relationship with Bitcoin. The correlation between the two remains unstable, frequently shifting between positive and negative territory.

This reinforces an important point.

Bitcoin is not simply replacing gold, nor is it behaving like equities. It is beginning to trade independently.

As shown below, the lack of a stable correlation with gold highlights that Bitcoin is still in a transition phase, carving out its own role within the global financial system.

This is a critical shift.

Under the old framework, Bitcoin was viewed as a high risk extension of equities. Under this emerging framework, it is becoming an asset that does not cleanly fit into traditional categories.

For investors, this changes how Bitcoin should be viewed.

If you are only watching equities or gold to understand Bitcoin, you are likely to misread the market. The relationships that once defined its behaviour are no longer as reliable.

The key takeaway is simple.

Do not just track price, track relationships. Correlation tells you how the market views an asset. And when those correlations begin to shift, it is often the earliest signal that a larger structural change is underway.

Right now, Bitcoin is in that transition.

And understanding that shift is what separates reacting to the market from positioning ahead of it.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Bitcoin vs AI: The Liquidity Drain Nobody Priced In

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:13:53 +1100

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Bitcoin continues to trade heavy, holding near support despite steady ETF inflows. The issue is not demand. It is a structural shift on the supply side, driven by the AI capex boom.

The AI Pivot Is Draining BTC Liquidity

Miners are no longer operating as pure Bitcoin businesses. They are repositioning as compute providers, and that shift is now feeding directly into market structure.

Large players are actively liquidating BTC treasuries to fund AI infrastructure. This is strategic capital rotation, not cyclical selling.

The scale is meaningful. Public miners have reduced collective treasuries by over 15,000 BTC in Q1 alone, with some shifting toward near-zero reserve models to fund participation in an estimated $70B AI/HPC contract pipeline (long-term deals to provide computing power for AI systems).

Instead of holding coins for upside, miners are deploying into GPUs, data centre upgrades, and long-term hosting deals. BTC is increasingly being treated as a funding layer for the AI buildout.

Structural Sell Pressure vs ETF Demand

This dynamic helps explain the current price stagnation.

ETF flows remain broadly constructive, but they are being absorbed by persistent miner distribution. The result is anaemic price action, even with supportive inflows.

There are also early signs of demand fatigue. In the final week of March, spot ETFs recorded close to $300M in net outflows. When marginal demand pauses, miner supply becomes the dominant price setter.

At the same time, production economics are deteriorating.

We are now seeing the widest gap between production cost and spot price since the 2022 lows. With average costs near $80K versus price around $70K, the cost-to-price ratio has pushed toward 1.2x.

Network difficulty continues to rise into stagnant price action, driving hashprice down to roughly $28–$30/PH/s (a measure of how much revenue miners earn per unit of computing power). This is no longer just margin compression. It is forcing a strategic response.

Capital Is Chasing Compute, Not Coins

Equity markets are accelerating this transition.

The mining sector is now clearly bifurcated. Companies with secured AI hosting contracts are trading around 12x EV/NTM revenue, while pure-play Bitcoin miners sit closer to 5.9x.

EV reflects the total value of the company, while NTM refers to expected performance over the next 12 months, meaning AI-exposed miners are being valued at roughly double the forward revenue multiple of traditional BTC miners.

That near 2x valuation premium is a powerful incentive. It is effectively paying miners to stop hoarding BTC and start building data centre capacity.

This creates a feedback loop where capital flows into AI, BTC treasuries are liquidated, and the typical miner-driven supply constraint is absent this cycle.

Market Takeaway

This is not a broken cycle. It is a redistribution phase.

Bitcoin is currently being used to finance the AI expansion, suppressing price action in the short term. Miner behaviour is no longer aligned with cyclical tightening. It is aligned with external capital demands.

Once this capex cycle matures and treasury selling slows, supply conditions should tighten more organically.

There is, however, a clear contrarian risk. If AI returns fail to justify the scale of current investment, miners risk exchanging scarce BTC for depreciating hardware and underutilised infrastructure. The market is pricing in successful execution, but the margin for error is thin.

This is now a macro convergence trade.

This does not change Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. If anything, it reinforces it. What we are seeing is a temporary misallocation of capital, not a structural weakness in the asset itself.

Bitcoin is no longer moving in isolation. It is increasingly tied to the AI capital cycle, and right now, that cycle is absorbing liquidity. When that shift inevitably returns to Bitcoin, the move will be sharp, and you do not want to be underallocated.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,509)

PAXG posted a modest green session over the past 24 hours, continuing to hold within a key demand zone, which points to underlying strength as buyers step in on dips. For now, consolidation remains the dominant structure, with price coiling ahead of its next move. A sustained hold above this range would favour continuation higher, while any loss of support could shift momentum quickly.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin wicked down to $65K yesterday before reclaiming $68K, highlighting continued liquidity sweeps around range lows, and has since rotated back toward the $66.8K level, which remains a key short-term pivot. Momentum is still sideways, with acceptance above opening a move back toward $70K, while rejection increases the probability of a sweep toward $63.8K, keeping conditions firmly reactive and level-driven.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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You Didn’t Miss the Move, You Were Meant to Accumulate

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:03:29 +1100

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The comparison between 2021 and 2026 prices tells a story that many newer participants misunderstand at first glance. On paper, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana appear flat to down across a five year window. Bitcoin slightly lower, Ethereum marginally softer, Solana significantly retraced. If you only entered with a single lump sum at the 2021 highs and did nothing else, the outcome looks underwhelming.

But that is not how cycles are navigated.

The real edge in crypto has always come from surviving and accumulating through the compression phases. 2018 to 2020 rewarded conviction. 2022 to 2024 has done the same. These are the periods where narratives fade, liquidity dries up, and attention disappears. Yet structurally, this is where long term positioning is built.

A disciplined dollar cost averaging strategy through these ranges transforms the outcome entirely. Instead of anchoring to a single high entry, you are systematically acquiring sovereign money at discounted valuations across multiple market regimes. Volatility becomes a tool rather than a risk.

And this is where the concept of building a sovereign stack becomes critical.

Sovereign money in this context is not just about price appreciation. It is about ownership of an asset that sits outside traditional monetary systems, immune to debasement, capital controls, and counterparty risk. Bitcoin is the clearest expression of this. Every sat accumulated is a direct claim on a fixed supply asset in an increasingly inflationary world.

The objective is not to trade in and out of that position. It is to grow it consistently. Over time, your exposure shifts from speculative positioning to meaningful monetary ownership. That shift is what separates participants from long term holders of value.

What is increasingly clear in this cycle, however, is that quality extends beyond Bitcoin alone. Ethereum continues to solidify its role as the settlement layer for decentralised finance and tokenised assets. Solana, despite volatility, has proven resilience through network growth, developer activity, and user demand.

Beyond the majors, the market is proving that a broader set of assets are more than likely here to stay. XRP has survived multiple cycles on narrative alone, maintaining its position, while Hyperliquid has firmly established itself as a major player in on chain derivatives infrastructure. Alongside them, a number of projects are demonstrating real traction, strong fundamentals, and consistent user demand.

This cycle is not just reinforcing Bitcoin’s dominance, it is validating an entire layer of high quality digital assets that are embedding themselves into the future financial system.

The key takeaway is not whether prices are marginally lower than 2021 highs. It is whether you have used the time between peaks effectively.

If you have been consistently converting fiat into high quality digital assets, you have been increasing your share of a new financial system while others focused on short term price action.

Cycles reward patience, not precision.

Those who consistently accumulated through uncertainty are not looking at this market wondering why prices have not moved. They are sitting on significantly larger positions in assets that continue to mature, expand, and integrate deeper into the global financial system.

That is how sovereign stacks are built.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,522)

PAXG has moved back into a key reclaim zone that will dictate the next leg. A clean break and hold above this level opens the door for continuation to the upside, but failure here keeps price pinned under resistance with downside pressure still in play.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin spent the weekend trading just below the $66.8k resistance, struggling to break through while also contending with overhead moving averages.

Short term momentum and structure remain in favour of the bears, but zooming out, Bitcoin is still holding within a broader consolidation range. Until either side decisively breaks, this remains a range bound market with liquidity building on both sides.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Correlation Breakdown That Signals Bitcoin’s Next Phase

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:47:35 +1100

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Following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, Bitcoin’s narrative is undergoing a quiet but important transformation.

For the last couple of cycles, Bitcoin was easy to categorise. It traded like a high-beta tech asset, moving closely with equities and responding almost mechanically to shifts in liquidity and risk sentiment. When markets rallied, Bitcoin outperformed. When markets sold off, it amplified the downside.

This relationship was measurable.

At its peak between 2022 and 2024, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 pushed above 0.6. In simple terms, correlation is measured on a scale from -1 to +1. A reading of +1 means two assets move perfectly in sync, 0 means no relationship, and -1 means they move in completely opposite directions. A 0.6 correlation is significant. It implies a strong tendency for Bitcoin and equities to move in the same direction, reinforcing the idea that BTC was effectively trading as a leveraged extension of traditional markets.

That framework is now breaking down.

As geopolitical tensions intensified through February and March, traditional safe haven flows behaved as expected. Capital rotated into gold, which surged toward record highs, while equities struggled under uncertainty and inflation pressure.

Bitcoin, however, did not follow a single script.

The initial reaction still aligned with risk assets, but what followed marked a clear divergence. While equities remained subdued, Bitcoin began to attract consistent inflows, driven not by sentiment, but by structure.

In the first two weeks of March alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.47 billion in net inflows. This came at a time when broader markets lacked direction, highlighting a key shift in how capital is approaching BTC.

This is not speculative demand. It is allocation. Collectively, Bitcoin ETFs now control roughly 6.5% of total supply.

That level of ownership introduces a new dynamic.

These flows are not reacting to short-term market noise. They are driven by portfolio construction, rebalancing mandates, and increasingly, corporate treasury strategies enabled by updated accounting standards. This creates a persistent bid that operates independently of equity market performance.

And this is where the correlation break becomes visible.

While the S&P 500 has fallen amid the escalating conflict, Bitcoin has continued to absorb capital. The correlation has not disappeared, but it has weakened significantly, now fluctuating between 0.28 and 0.49.

More importantly, it has become unreliable. Bitcoin is no longer consistently moving in step with equities because it is no longer being treated as the same type of asset.

At the macro level, its true alignment is becoming clearer.

Bitcoin continues to show a stronger relationship with global M2 money supply, holding around a 0.43 correlation. This suggests that Bitcoin is not detaching from macro forces, but rather anchoring itself more directly to global liquidity conditions instead of equity market performance.

This is a crucial shift.

Equities are driven by earnings, growth expectations, and margin pressure. Bitcoin is increasingly driven by scarcity, capital flows, and monetary expansion. As ETF demand absorbs supply and institutional participation deepens, these factors begin to dominate price behaviour.

Even the comparison with gold reinforces this evolution.

Gold reacted first to geopolitical stress, as it traditionally does. Bitcoin lagged, and the correlation briefly turned negative, challenging the digital gold narrative. But as flows accelerated and liquidity expectations stabilised, Bitcoin began to re-align with the broader macro theme.

Not as a direct safe haven, but as a second-phase asset.

This is the emerging identity.

Bitcoin is no longer just a leveraged Nasdaq trade. It is evolving into a distinct macro asset, one that sits at the intersection of liquidity, institutional allocation, and digital scarcity.

The correlation break is not noise.

It is a signal that the market is starting to understand what Bitcoin is becoming.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,412)

PAXG declined 2% yesterday after failing to reclaim a key zone that was critical for bullish continuation. The inability to regain this level reinforces bearish control, keeping downside pressure firmly intact as momentum fades.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin dropped over 3% yesterday, with bears regaining near-term momentum following a clear rejection at the $71.7K resistance. This failed breakout has pushed BTC back below $69K, shifting structure in favour of further downside in the short term.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.