Stormrake - Insights #Aster DexStormrake - Insights #Aster Dexhttps://www.stormrake.com/blogs/tag/aster-dexSat, 09 May 2026 00:34:01 +1000http://zoho.com/sites/<![CDATA[Markets Start to Feel the Pressure from US Government Shutdown]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/markets-start-to-feel-the-pressure-from-us-government-shutdown
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Initially when the US Government shutdown began, investors were not fazed. Markets continued to push higher and several indices hit fresh all time highs. Bitcoin eventually joined them and printed a marginal new all time high too.

But a deeper issue is now becoming apparent. The shutdown has entered its ninth day and we are heading into quarterly earnings season in traditional markets without any economic data. There are growing concerns over the quality of data once the Government does reopen, especially considering the issues we have already seen with data releases throughout the year.

As a result, risk on markets are beginning to teeter. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed red on the day but remain within touching distance of their all time highs. However, much of the pain was felt in the crypto market. Bitcoin saw a volatile 24 hours, with a range of nearly 3.5% from daily high to low. It was less than 2% from a new all time high before falling below $120K. Around $700 million in leveraged positions were wiped out, with the majority being long. Bitcoin has since recovered slightly and is down just 1.5% on the day. Altcoins were hit harder, most falling 3% to 4% or more.

We have been reiterating that a pullback is healthy. Yes, we did not get the breakout to new highs we were hoping for yesterday and short term control has shifted to the bears. But even a retest of $118K would not be a concern within the broader structure.

While risk off sentiment is creeping back in, yesterday saw an unusual divergence in the metals. Gold retraced 2% from its all time high, but silver continued higher and broke through $51, printing its first new all time high since 2011. A strong result for those with silver exposure in their portfolio.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($44.04)

HYPE has been one of the bigger underperformers recently but remains a top tier project for those looking to accumulate undervalued altcoins. It dropped over 5% in the past 24 hours and is now sitting in a demand zone with a bullish order book that is holding up for the time being.

Bears are still in control of the short term structure. This would flip if HYPE can break its trendline and print a higher high above $47. While it remains below $50, HYPE continues to present a compelling long term opportunity.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

As mentioned above, short term momentum is with the bears. Bitcoin confirmed a bearish structure yesterday after forming a lower low and lower high. However, the bigger picture remains bullish. The most likely next move is a retest of the $118K support zone. Bulls will need to reclaim the moving averages to make a real attempt at a new all time high. Despite the pullback, they still have strength and are not out of the game.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 9 Oct: $ + 51.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Sat, 11 Oct 2025 14:29:11 +1100<![CDATA[Bitcoin Builds as the Low Looks to Be In]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Bitcoin-Builds-as-the-Low-Looks-to-Be-In
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The bulls have done well to hold the line and are now building once more on the momentum they’ve carried into October. Bitcoin is back above $123K, less than 2.5% from its all time high, and could very well challenge it in the next few days. To confirm yesterday morning’s low as a proper higher low, we need to see a new high printed. Ideally, this would be a higher high that pushes us through $126K and confirms a fresh all time high.

We also received the FOMC minutes this morning, giving us a recap of last month’s meeting when the first rate cut of the year took place. The committee was in full agreement that a cut was necessary in September. The only disagreement was over how many more cuts to expect before year end. With just two meetings left in 2025, members were split between two 25bps cuts or a total of 75bps across both meetings. The vote landed at 10 to 9 in favour of two 25bps cuts. The more cuts we see, the more bullish it is for risk on assets, but regardless of the split, the overall situation remains bullish.

Meanwhile, the US government shutdown is largely being ignored by markets but it is a clear hindrance for policymakers. While the government is shut down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the agency responsible for publishing monthly jobs data and CPI, halts operations. This means the key data the Fed typically relies on will not be available, leaving them to make decisions without up to date input. Markets expect the shutdown to last at least another 24 days, which would take us past the rate decision on the 29th. Despite this, there is still a 92.5% chance we see a 25bps cut this month, followed by a near 80% chance of another 25bps cut in December.

In other markets, gold has breached $4,000 for the first time in its history, while silver sits at $49.55, less than 1% away from the key $50 level. Traditional indices also bounced, led by tech stocks, with the S&P 500 posting its 33rd all time high of the year and the Nasdaq printing its 32nd.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($46.31)

Hyperliquid returns to the Stormrake Spotlight after a volatile few weeks. Prior to the launch of ASTER, HYPE reached an all time high of $58. Following ASTER’s explosive debut, the token saw a sharp 30% pullback, bringing it back to the below $40.

This move has brought attention back to the project, which continues to be viewed by many as one of the leading decentralised exchange platforms in the space. The recent price action has sparked renewed interest in the sub $50 range, with some in the industry speculating on the potential for triple digit valuations in future.

As always, volatility remains high in the altcoin market, and price movements around narrative-driven projects like HYPE can be rapid. Still, its overall position in the DEX landscape makes it a name worth watching closely.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has climbed back above all major moving averages following yesterday’s bounce off the 200MA. This current move is looking to confirm a higher low. Bulls are starting to regain momentum and already have the structure in place, so a move back to the all time high looks well within reach.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 8 Oct: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Thu, 09 Oct 2025 13:36:17 +1100<![CDATA[It's Just a Pullback...]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Its-Just-a-Pullback...
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Just 24 hours after printing a new all-time high at $126K, Bitcoin has seen its first meaningful pullback since the rally began at $109K. It dropped nearly 5% from the high, but has since bounced and is now trading around $122K. BTC is down 2% on the day, recovering from a low of $120.5K. So, is the pullback done?

This is the pullback we have been expecting and what Bitcoin needed. The run from $109K to $126K came with virtually no correction, and this pause acts as a healthy reset for the market. Over $500 million in leveraged positions have been wiped out, clearing excess risk before it builds into something more dangerous. The fact it is happening now, rather than later in a more extended move, reduces the risk of a sharper correction down the line.

While there is a chance the pullback continues, there is a strong argument that the low is in. Bulls may now look to regain control and make another attempt at the highs. That said, a dip to $118K would still sit comfortably within the bullish structure we highlighted earlier this week.

This was not just a crypto-specific move either. The S&P 500 snapped its seven-day winning streak, Nasdaq closed lower, and even Silver pulled back, which was surprising given Gold pushed higher in a clear risk-off move. Markets are starting to price in growing uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown and broader macro concerns. While the shutdown itself did not move markets when it occurred, investors are increasingly unsure about the potential fallout and what lies ahead in terms of policy and economic data.

We now enter the macro-heavy part of the week. Jerome Powell is set to speak tomorrow night and we will finish the week with two sets of unemployment data. Volatility may continue, but for now this is still just a pullback.

Stormrake Spotlight: Aster (ASTER) ($2.07)

ASTER was one of the few coins to remain green over the last 24 hours, largely thanks to strength in BNB which is up nearly 7%. ASTER continues to challenge the key resistance zone of the horizontal box, but has failed to sustain a breakout above it for the third time.

Momentum still leans towards the bulls, with moving averages approaching the resistance zone. A decision is likely in the next day or two, and only one side will win.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has pulled back from its all-time high and short-term momentum has flipped to the bears. As mentioned above, this is a healthy move. BTC has found support at the 200 moving averages, which are historically strong levels and I expect them to hold. If they fail, the next key support sits at $118K which still keeps us within a bullish structure. Once this reset plays out, the October target remains $131K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 7 Oct: $ - 28.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Thu, 09 Oct 2025 13:31:24 +1100<![CDATA[Bitcoin Hits $126,000 in Back-to-Back All Time Highs]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Bitcoin-Hits-126000-in-Back-to-Back-All-Time-Highs
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That’s two consecutive days of all time highs now as Bitcoin tags $126K this morning, inching one step closer to the October target of $131K. The bulls are firmly in control. Sentiment is now deep in the greed zone and quickly approaching extreme greed.

The broader market is just as bullish. Altcoins really picked up the pace yesterday. BNB pushed to yet another all time high over $1,200, Ethereum is nearly back at $4,700 and now less than 6% away from its previous peak, while most other majors rallied over 5%.

So while Bitcoin continues to lead with fresh highs, the majority of altcoins, although showing real strength, are still trading below their all time highs and yet to have their blow off top moment (as Bitcoin arguably hasn’t had either). If that parabolic phase arrives, accumulating quality altcoins that are still lagging behind Bitcoin could offer serious upside, especially if the altcoin market starts to take over.

It is safe to say the crypto markets have finally caught up, joining traditional markets in rallying and printing fresh highs. The frustration of the past month should now be fading. The S&P 500 closed at its highest level in history, the Nasdaq followed, and both major indices continue to show strong risk on momentum. Meanwhile, precious metals, Gold and Silver, are also pushing to fresh highs.

Now, the correlation across these assets is not new, but it is rare for them all to rally at the same time. This time is different. Investors and the public are rotating away from dollars and government controlled currencies as purchasing power erodes, seeking stores of value and vehicles for wealth creation. This is fuelling broad based momentum across markets, whether risk on or risk off.

Stormrake Spotlight: Aster (ASTER) ($2.09)

Aster is up over 10% and has finally joined the broader market rally. Momentum has flipped back to the bulls, and the higher low structure is now confirmed. It is in the process of setting a new high, but to keep this structure intact, ASTER must break above the recent high at $2.30. A move above that would signal a continuation and open the door for a push towards new all time highs.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin’s new all time high at $126K was driven by strong support from the 21 EMA, which held and provided the bounce needed for a breakout. With that level intact, the $131K target is firmly in play over the next week. While a consolidation or minor pullback would not be surprising, these are likely to act as short breathers before BTC resumes higher.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 6 Oct: $ + 152.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Thu, 09 Oct 2025 13:28:09 +1100<![CDATA[$125,000 Bitcoin Sets New All Time High]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/125-000-bitcoin-sets-new-all-time-high
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If you’re checking the charts for the first time since Friday, you might assume Bitcoin had a quiet weekend. It’s only 0.5% higher than Friday’s close. But those following closely yesterday or watching the news will know Bitcoin finally set a new all time high.

Bitcoin broke out to hit $125.7K, setting a new all time high Sunday afternoon. The move triggered strong momentum across the market, with altcoins also enjoying short-lived rallies. However, the celebration was brief. Most major coins are now either in the red or struggling to stay in the green as Bitcoin pulled back almost immediately after the peak, with investors taking profits at the milestone. Despite the retrace, Bitcoin remains in a strong technical position and looks set to push higher later this week.

Altcoins are mixed over the past 24 hours. HYPE was nearly up 5% at its intraday peak but is now down 2%, a swing of more than 6%. Ethereum and Solana are both marginally green, currently up less than 0.45%, despite intraday highs of over 3% and 4% respectively.

Key Macro Events This Week

The second half of the week is shaping up to be eventful. FOMC minutes are set to be released Thursday morning and should provide more insight into the Fed’s thinking at the last meeting, with potential signals about future decisions. Thursday night brings US unemployment data, followed by a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Additional labour data is expected on Friday. These events could influence broader markets, including crypto.

Seasonal Tailwinds in Play

October has started strongly and the new all time high could be just the beginning of what is historically a bullish time of year. Keep in mind, anything less than $131K would be considered underperformance for Bitcoin in October.

Stormrake Spotlight: Aster (ASTER) ($1.83)

ASTER has dropped over 10% in the past 24 hours. After briefly breaking above a key horizontal resistance zone, the move failed to hold and the price reversed sharply. Bears have regained short-term momentum, but the bulls still control the broader structure.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin set a new all time high at $125.7K but has since pulled back to hover just above the 55EMA. Structure and momentum both remain clearly bullish. Even if BTC retraced to $118K, the bullish outlook would remain intact and present a strong dip-buying opportunity.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 5 Oct: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Mon, 06 Oct 2025 11:37:40 +1100<![CDATA[Just a Whisker Away from ATH]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Just-a-Whisker-Away-from-ATH
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Bitcoin climbed over 1% and now sits above $122K, just 0.5% shy of its all time high. Price action looks strong, with bulls firmly in control.

Across the broader market, altcoins extended their rally. BNB impressed again, rallying over 9% to nearly $1,200 and setting a fresh all time high. This move also helped lift ASTER, which has been riding BNB’s strength.

Markets are in a great position. Bitcoin is hovering just below its all time high and altcoins are showing solid momentum, yet many still remain at discounted levels compared to where they were at the start of September. There are still plenty of opportunities across the crypto space. You are not too late, but you do not want to be sidelined when Bitcoin breaks through that all time high and sharp rallies follow as investors rush in with FOMO.

It has been a strong start to October. If Bitcoin simply matches its average historical performance for this month, it would reach around $131K by month end. That projection is based purely on historical data, without even factoring in the current macro backdrop, which includes broad bullishness across markets and catalysts like expected rate cuts.

This is a great time to be bullish. It is not the time to be sitting on the sidelines or stuck waiting for lower prices just because you hesitated last week and now feel like you have missed it. Time in the market beats timing the market.

Stormrake Spotlight: Aster (ASTER) ($2.13)

ASTER has found solid footing after what looked like a breakdown. Bulls have taken back control and pushed it higher. If ASTER can clear the current resistance at the blue rectangle, it has a clean path to a new all time high around $2.41.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin printed a high of $123.9K, just $500 below the all time high. Bulls remain in full control. This pullback looks like a standard retest of the 21EMA, which has consistently acted as support over the past week. If the 21EMA holds again, we could see the next leg higher take out the all time high.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 3 Oct: $ + 167.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Sat, 04 Oct 2025 16:34:34 +1000<![CDATA[Catch-Up Season: Bitcoin Joins the Risk Rally]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Catch-Up-Season-Bitcoin-Joins-the-Risk-Rally
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Just a week ago, Bitcoin was trading below $109K and sentiment was teetering on the edge of extreme fear. Many were calling for lower prices. Fast forward seven days and those same voices are now calling for all time highs as Bitcoin tapped $121K overnight, a move of over 10% in just a week.

It has been a sea of green across the entire space. Ethereum is up 15%, Solana up 23%, and Hyperliquid has climbed nearly 30% in the last week, so it has been a good time. The bullishness has extended to broader markets as well. Precious metals made fresh highs, although volatility was intense. Silver fell nearly 5% intraday and gold dropped almost 2% before buyers stepped in to stop the bleeding. Equities also printed new all time highs by opening higher and fading through the session. Strength has returned across the board, and the weeks of frustration while metals and equities pushed higher as crypto pulled back seem to have disappeared. Bitcoin is finally playing catch up.

Those who stayed calm during the recent pullback and used it to accumulate Bitcoin and altcoins are now the ones who are laughing. The fact that Bitcoin still has not made a new all time high shows this move is far from over. In reality, the bull run looks ready to resume. We have entered the most historically bullish part of the year. Uptober has already started strong, more rate cuts are expected, and it is a great time to be bullish and positioned. But there is still plenty of opportunity in the market, so do not feel like you have missed it. Bitcoin remains below its all time high, as do the majority of high quality altcoins.

Stormrake Spotlight: Aster (ASTER) ($1.77)

ASTER has followed the broader market, climbing nearly 10% yesterday with bulls reclaiming control. We have now seen the first higher high in over a week and momentum sits with the buyers. The question now is whether they can keep pushing ASTER higher without the hype of it being the shiny new toy, especially with Hyperliquid drawing so much attention after its massive rally.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is moving fast. Bulls are clearly in control. After a brief pause at the key $118K level, BTC pushed higher and reached $121K overnight before settling around $120K. We are now less than 3.5% away from the all time high. That level could be tested over the weekend.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 2 Oct: $ + 24.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Sat, 04 Oct 2025 16:28:56 +1000<![CDATA[October Starts Off With a Bang!]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/October-Starts-Off-With-a-Bang
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For most of September we emphasised that October would be when Bitcoin truly kicked off its next leg higher. We consistently highlighted the importance of accumulating BTC and quality altcoins during the consolidation and pullback phase.

Now, on the very first day of October, that patience is already being rewarded. Bitcoin is trading above $118K, up nearly 4%. Ethereum has climbed close to 5%, Solana nearly 6%, and the broader crypto space is firmly in the green. Those who bought the dip are already seeing the payoff.

The US government officially shut down yesterday but, as we said at the time, markets simply do not seem to care. Crypto remains strong and that strength has been echoed across traditional markets. Gold and silver pushed higher again, and US equities printed fresh all-time highs.

In another bullish signal, FTX repayments have now hit the market. That capital has visibly reentered the crypto ecosystem, reinforcing the view that confidence is returning and positioning remains risk-on.

With Bitcoin now breaking above $118K, there is just one major level left in play: the all-time high.

Stormrake Spotlight: Aster (ASTER) ($1.65)

ASTER moved up just 1% yesterday and underperformed the broader market. That is a concerning sign for ASTER investors. Another lower high has now formed and there is little evidence that the bears are losing control. Bulls need to step in quickly to shift momentum.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is pumping and bulls are back in full control across all timeframes. A new higher high has been set above $118K which now becomes the key support level. With this level cleared, there is only one target left: the all-time high above $124K. If momentum holds, we could see that tested within the next week.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 1 Oct: $ + 84.4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Sat, 04 Oct 2025 15:36:12 +1000<![CDATA[US Government to Shut Down but Markets Don't Care]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/us-government-to-shut-down-but-markets-don-t-care
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The US Government is set to shut down for the first time since 2018 after Congress failed to pass funding legislation by the 30 September deadline. Partisan deadlock over spending levels, healthcare provisions, and border security policies has brought negotiations to a standstill. A prolonged shutdown could impact a significant number of jobs and is estimated to cost over minus 0.5% of quarterly GDP.

But what does this mean for markets?

Typically, government shutdowns create short-term volatility and increase macro uncertainty, which can push investors toward safe haven assets like gold. Historically, markets tend to shake it off. 86% of shutdowns since 1976 have seen the S&P 500 trade higher 12 months later, with an average return of 12.7%.

Interestingly, net shorts on the VIX (Volatility Index) are at their highest levels since 2022. That suggests investors are not positioning for turbulence and are instead expecting the bullish run to continue.

But we are in 2025 and nothing is making sense

Markets appear unfazed by the looming shutdown. Gold has hit another all time high, now edging closer to $3,900. Risk on indices are rallying again and are within touching distance of fresh all time highs.

Bitcoin has also recovered over the past 24 hours. After dipping 1.44% intraday, the US session brought renewed strength, pushing BTC back above $114K.

We are now in October, the most consistently green month for Bitcoin since 2011, with ten out of fourteen Octobers closing positive. It is also the fourth best month on average, with returns of 15.2%. Yet both Bitcoin and altcoins remain in a pullback phase, offering some solid opportunities before the rally really starts.

Stormrake Spotlight: Aster (ASTER) ($1.62)

It was a short lived bounce for the bulls. ASTER has dropped over 14% in the past 24 hours, and there is no denying the bears have regained control. Momentum is breaking down, and the long term sustainability of the project continues to face tough questions. Without a decisive shift in price action, confidence may keep fading.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

A constructive day for Bitcoin. Not so much in price gains but in structure. A higher high and a higher low have confirmed the bullish momentum remains intact. This sets the stage for a push toward the next major level at $116.9K. Momentum is aligned with structure and bulls are clearly still in control.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 30 Sep: (Data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Wed, 01 Oct 2025 14:39:54 +1000<![CDATA[Momentum Builds in Crypto Ahead of $1.6B FTX Repayments]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Momentum-Builds-in-Crypto-Ahead-of-1.6B-FTX-Repayments
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Bitcoin extended its Monday momentum into yesterday, rallying after 11pm and again into the first US session of the week. BTC now trades above $114K, climbing nearly 2%. The altcoin market moved in step, with BNB leading the way, up nearly 4%, while Ethereum and Solana also closed green but gained less than 2%.

It has been more of the same in the broader market, with precious metals continuing to rally. Gold was up nearly another 2% and now trades above $3,800 per ounce for the first time in history. Silver matched gold’s move, rising just under 2% and pushing above $46.80. Meanwhile, traditional indices had a relatively flat session, both moving less than 0.5%.

Is this the beginning of a risk-on rotation?

We have been stressing that Bitcoin’s time will come. While it has been frustrating to see other assets rally to new all-time highs as Bitcoin and altcoins pulled back, capital will eventually find its way back into crypto. Those who used the recent pullback to accumulate will benefit. When funds return, they often do so quickly and with price already much higher, triggering FOMO from sidelined investors.

The next 24 hours should bring volatility. The third round of FTX creditor repayments is set to go live, with $1.6 billion to be returned to users. These repayments will be based on the 2022 dollar value of the lost assets, plus interest. To put it into perspective:

  • Bitcoin: $30K per BTC
  • Solana: $30 per SOL
  • Ethereum: $3,900 per ETH

If you lost 1 Bitcoin, you receive $30K rather than today’s market value. That is a big haircut for Bitcoin and Solana holders. Ethereum users are in a slightly better position, considering ETH’s lack of movement over the past three years.

The key focus is the potential injection of liquidity into the crypto market. Whether these investors re-enter or remain in cash, the repayments could provide another spark that adds to Bitcoin’s current momentum and pushes price closer to all-time highs.

Stormrake Spotlight: Aster (ASTER) ($1.92)

Bulls are beginning to regain control of ASTER. A higher low has been confirmed and momentum is starting to swing back in their favour. The key level to watch is $2. A close above would confirm a higher high and flip structure bullish. If this plays out, it would mark a strong step forward for the sustainability of the project.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin bulls are now fully in control of the short-term structure. A higher high has been confirmed above $114K, signalling the return of bullish momentum. Eyes now turn to the next resistance level at $116.9K. If this is taken out, expect continued strength in the days ahead.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 29 Sep: $ + 564.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
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