Stormrake - Insights #BinanceStormrake - Insights #Binancehttps://www.stormrake.com/blogs/tag/binanceMon, 27 Apr 2026 16:16:03 +1000http://zoho.com/sites/<![CDATA[Tax Time with Stormrake & Syla]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/tax-time-with-stormrake-sylaAs we approach the end of the financial year, here’s a quick way to stay prepared for tax time. Stormrake has partnered with Syla to provide a complete crypto tax report, fully tailored to Australian tax requirements.]]>

As we approach the end of the financial year, here’s a quick way to stay prepared for tax time. 

Stormrake has partnered with Syla to provide a complete crypto tax report, fully tailored to Australian tax requirements. Whether you're lodging yourself or working with an accountant, Syla makes it simple to import your Stormrake transactions and calculate your crypto tax.

Stormrake exclusive offer:

Get 30% off any Syla plan with the code STORMTAX at checkout. Register here.


Register an account on Syla

How to register an account on Syla

1. Visit Syla and click the Try Free button.
2. Sign up using your Google account or email and a password.

Importing your Activity Statement CSV

3. After signing up, you’ll be prompted to add a Data Source. In the search bar, type Stormrake and select it from the list.
4. Choose File Import and upload your Stormrake Activity Statement CSV. 

Don’t have one? Reach out to your Broker at Stormrake to request your Statement.

Review and download your Crypto Tax Report

5. After importing, you’ll land on your Dashboard, where you can view a summary of your portfolio.
6. Do you have other wallets or exchanges? Head to the Data Sources page and click Add Data Source to connect them.
7. Go to the Transactions page to view your transactions. You can make edits if needed.
8. When you’re ready, head to the Tax Reports page to download your Crypto Tax Report. You’ll need to choose a paid plan before downloading.
9. Share your reportwith your Tax Accountant when preparing your tax return, or follow Syla’s guide for self-lodging your own tax return.

Need Help

Get support directly via live chat at Syla.

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Reach out to us at Stormrake for further market insight and allow us to help you navigate the sea of mania and laser-eye memes, so that you can realise your goals in the market!

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Wed, 11 Jun 2025 15:20:48 +1000<![CDATA[Emergency APB: Major Australian Super Funds Hit by Cyber attack]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/emergency-apb-major-australian-super-funds-hit-by-cyber-attackA major cyber attack has compromised the security of several of Australia’s largest superannuation funds, exposing critical vulnerabilities in the system.]]>
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Several of Australia’s largest superannuation funds have fallen victim to a significant cyber attack, highlighting a glaring vulnerability in the traditional retirement system. The breach affects major industry players including AustralianSuper, Hostplus, REST, Australian Retirement Trust, and Insignia—the parent of multiple large retail super brands.

Collectively, these funds manage over $700 billion in assets.

According to emerging reports, hackers accessed super fund login credentials via the dark web. They then targeted retirees in the pension drawdown phase—those eligible to request lump sum withdrawals. This subset of members has been especially vulnerable, with cybercriminals attempting to siphon off funds before the breach was discovered.

In response, logins for the affected accounts have been disabled, leaving many members locked out and in panic mode as they attempt to assess whether their savings are safe.

This situation reinforces why we continue to advocate for holding Bitcoin in your Self-Managed Super Fund (SMSF). In a system built on centralised databases and opaque access points, Bitcoin offers permissionless security, full custody, and global liquidity. When managed correctly, a Bitcoin-backed SMSF removes intermediaries and adds resilience in times of systemic stress.

Worried about the security of your super? Reach out to your Stormrake Crypto Broker and take control of your SMSF with Bitcoin—before you're the next to be affected.
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Fri, 04 Apr 2025 19:16:30 +1100<![CDATA[Australia’s 2025–26 Federal Budget: Strengthening the Case for Bitcoin in SMSFs]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Australia-Federal-Budget-ReportWith superannuation now a fiscal target and the AUD facing long-term risks, Bitcoin offers an avenue for enhanced financial sovereignty within an SMSF.]]>

The Australian government’s latest budget signals a deepening shift in how private wealth—particularly superannuation—is managed and taxed. For investors, this is more than just a policy update; it is a clear warning that long-term financial autonomy is increasingly at risk.

Superannuation: From Retirement Security to Government Revenue Source

Australia’s superannuation system was introduced on 1 July 1992, with the intention of providing workers with a stable, long-term retirement savings framework. However, despite early assurances that superannuation would remain untouched by political interference, successive governments have repeatedly altered its rules. One of the most significant overhauls came in 2006/2007, when the Tax Laws Amendment (Simplified Superannuation) Bill introduced tax-free withdrawals for retirees over 60. At the time, then-Treasurer Peter Costello framed these reforms as creating a system that should not be continually adjusted, warning that constant changes would erode confidence.

Yet, in the years since, governments from both sides of politics have continued to modify tax settings, contribution limits, and access conditions, often using superannuation as a fiscal lever rather than a protected retirement asset. The 2025–26 Federal Budget follows this familiar pattern, underscoring the reality that superannuation is no longer immune from political and economic pressures—reinforcing the need for greater individual control.

Superannuation as a Budget Lever

The 2025–26 Federal Budget reinforces a trend that has been developing for years: superannuation is no longer just a retirement savings vehicle—it is now a key instrument of government fiscal policy. The Treasury has revised its forecast for super tax receipts up by $2.4 billion for 2025–26 and by $9.7 billion over five years, confirming that the government is increasingly reliant on super contributions and taxation to balance the books.

This reliance raises significant concerns about future policy direction. The possibility of taxing unrealised gains on large super balances remains on the table, a move that could force fund members to pay tax on paper profits even if assets have not been sold. Such a policy would introduce liquidity challenges, distort portfolio construction, and increase uncertainty around long-term financial planning.

In this evolving landscape, control over superannuation investments is becoming a strategic advantage. Investors who seek greater autonomy are increasingly looking beyond pooled industry and retail super funds, where policy decisions are outside their control, and towards self-managed super funds (SMSFs), where they can directly allocate capital into assets that align with their long-term vision of wealth preservation.

The Aussie Dollar's Structural Weakness and the Shift to Harder Assets

While the budget surplus may provide temporary stability for the Australian dollar, the underlying macroeconomic picture remains fragile. The AUD’s long-term value remains dependent on external factors, including commodity demand from China and broader USD liquidity conditions.

Domestically, the government’s approach to fiscal policy suggests that purchasing power erosion is likely to continue. While tax cuts and rebates offer short-term relief, they do not address the fundamental challenges of persistent inflation, energy insecurity, and structural weaknesses in key industries. As inflation continues to eat into real savings, investors are increasingly looking for hard assets that sit outside traditional monetary policy frameworks.

Bitcoin’s finite supply and resistance to centralised intervention make it an attractive hedge against currency depreciation. Within an SMSF, Bitcoin offers exposure to an asset that cannot be debased by policy decisions or inflationary fiscal management.

Bitcoin in an SMSF: A Path to Self-Sovereignty

Bitcoin’s role within an SMSF is not just about investment returns—it is about enhancing financial sovereignty. With the government demonstrating a willingness to adjust superannuation rules to meet fiscal objectives, retaining direct control over asset selection and portfolio strategy is becoming increasingly important.

Holding Bitcoin in an SMSF allows investors to:

  • Maintain autonomy over their retirement savings, rather than being subject to pooled fund management decisions.
  • Diversify away from traditional financial system risks, reducing exposure to AUD volatility and regulatory shifts.
  • Own an asset that is scarce, decentralised, and resistant to government intervention, providing an alternative to traditional wealth storage methods.
  • While Bitcoin held within an SMSF remains subject to the same regulatory and taxation rules as other superannuation investments, its fundamental attributes as a sovereign-grade asset make it a compelling option for those looking to preserve wealth in an era of policy uncertainty.

The Case for SMSFs in a Changing Superannuation Landscape

With superannuation becoming a major fiscal tool, passive reliance on industry super funds is becoming an increasingly risky proposition. Pooled funds are subject to changing regulatory frameworks, and investors have little say over how their capital is allocated.

An SMSF provides the flexibility to make independent asset allocation decisions, ensuring that investment strategies are aligned with personal financial goals rather than government policy shifts.

For those seeking greater control over their super, Bitcoin represents a natural addition to an SMSF portfolio. Unlike traditional financial assets, it operates outside the influence of central banks and government intervention, offering a store of value that remains independent of fiscal policy changes.

Final Takeaway: Bitcoin and the Future of Superannuation

The 2025–26 budget reinforces a key theme: the government is increasingly using superannuation as a tool to manage its own financial position, rather than solely as a mechanism for individual retirement savings. This shift underscores the importance of self-directed financial strategies.

Bitcoin, particularly when held within an SMSF, provides a pathway to enhanced financial sovereignty. While it remains within the superannuation regulatory framework, its decentralised nature, fixed supply, and resistance to external control make it a compelling asset for those looking to future-proof their wealth against fiscal overreach and currency devaluation.

The ability to control one’s own financial destiny is becoming an ever more valuable asset. In this environment, Bitcoin within an SMSF is an increasingly strategic choice for those looking to maintain autonomy over their long-term savings.

Written by Bisher Khudeira

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Reach out to us at Stormrake for further market insight and allow us to help you navigate the sea of mania and laser-eye memes, so that you can realise your goals in the market!

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Wed, 26 Mar 2025 15:40:09 +1100<![CDATA[Bitcoin Breaks Out as Powell Turns Dovish]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Bitcoin-Breaks-Out-as-Powell-Turns-DovishRisk assets climb after Powell’s unexpectedly dovish remarks.]]>
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Bitcoin has finally broken out of its 10-day consolidation range following Jerome Powell’s press conference this morning. As expected, there was no rate cut, and market reaction hinged entirely on Powell—who did deliver. Bitcoin is up 5% on the day, with altcoins rising even more.

Powell’s tone surprised most investors when he used the term "transitory" to describe inflation and suggested that the Trump tariffs are unlikely to have a long-term impact. The Fed is in a good position to "wait for greater clarity" on the Trump agenda before adjusting policy. The expectation among FOMC members is that interest rates will end the year between 3.9% - 4.4%, up from 3.6% - 4.1% in December. This implies only one rate cut, but both Powell and the market have pencilled in two by year-end.

While tariffs have been a key source of uncertainty and bearish sentiment across markets, the Fed does not expect them to last—viewing them as temporary. This is an extremely bullish signal for markets in the long term. When paired with M2 global money supply expanding once again, it sets the stage for sustained growth in risk-on assets.

Bitcoin is currently trading above $87K, eyeing a reclaim of $90K—a highly bullish outcome after weeks of negative sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index now sits at 49, a massive recovery from the multi-year low of 10 just a month ago. A key takeaway: sentiment has rebounded dramatically, yet Bitcoin remains at a similar price level to when extreme fear dominated.

At the recent lows, many were calling for Bitcoin to break further into the $70K region, with some even predicting a return to the $60Ks. But as it so often does, Bitcoin has defied expectations. Have we seen the bottom? Not yet—we're not out of the woods, but we're making strong progress.
The market has priced in a 100% chance that there will be no rate change tomorrow, so we shouldn’t expect volatility from the rate decision itself. However, 30 minutes later (at 5:30am AEST), when Jerome Powell takes the stage to answer questions and provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance, we can expect the volatility to kick in, and the market direction could be determined. We expect Powell to signal that the Fed will remain patient, avoiding any rush to make rate decisions due to the ongoing uncertainty and volatility stemming from Trump’s tariff policies. The tone of his speech will be key—if Powell adopts a hawkish tone, risk-on assets could continue to pullback, whereas a dovish tone could lead to a rally in risk-on assets. Powell’s remarks might finally break Bitcoin out of the week-long consolidation range it’s been stuck in.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.53)

XRP has had a massive 24 hours. First, the SEC lawsuit against XRP was dropped. Then, Bitnomial launched its XRP futures contract, marking the first-ever CFTC-regulated XRP futures product in the U.S. And finally, Powell’s dovish stance provided a tailwind for the entire market.

As highlighted in yesterday’s note, XRP needed to break above $2.47 to regain a bullish structure—and it has done exactly that. It has now flipped market structure bullish, reclaimed all major moving averages, and returned to the upper half of its broader consolidation range. With this momentum, a $3 retest is likely in the coming weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has broken through the key resistance level of $85.2K, confirming bullish momentum. If BTC sustains this rally, we should see a $90K retest soon. If not, $85.2K must hold as support to maintain the bullish structure.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 19 Mar: $ + 22.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Thu, 20 Mar 2025 12:06:13 +1100<![CDATA[As US Interest Rate Decision Approaches, Investors Shift to Risk-Off]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/as-us-interest-rate-decision-approaches-investors-shift-to-risk-off
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With the upcoming FOMC event tomorrow and the unpredictable Jerome Powell press conference that follows, investors are taking a cautious approach. The last 24 hours have reflected this risk-off sentiment, with the S&P 500 down 1.07%, the Nasdaq down 1.7%, the DXY (US Dollar Index) down 0.16%, and Bitcoin down 1.52%. It’s clear where the money is flowing: into the widely regarded ‘safe haven’ asset, gold. Gold continues to make new all-time highs, climbing another 1.1% yesterday, marking seven consecutive days of bullish closes.

We’ve been following the massive short position that has had the entire crypto market on edge. After growing to over half a billion dollars, the $520m position was closed yesterday evening, resulting in the trader pocketing a $1.1 million profit after funding fees. This closure underscores the uncertainty and risk-off environment we're currently in, leading up to Powell’s press conference tomorrow.
The market has priced in a 100% chance that there will be no rate change tomorrow, so we shouldn’t expect volatility from the rate decision itself. However, 30 minutes later (at 5:30am AEST), when Jerome Powell takes the stage to answer questions and provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance, we can expect the volatility to kick in, and the market direction could be determined. We expect Powell to signal that the Fed will remain patient, avoiding any rush to make rate decisions due to the ongoing uncertainty and volatility stemming from Trump’s tariff policies. The tone of his speech will be key—if Powell adopts a hawkish tone, risk-on assets could continue to pullback, whereas a dovish tone could lead to a rally in risk-on assets. Powell’s remarks might finally break Bitcoin out of the week-long consolidation range it’s been stuck in.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.29)

XRP remains in a similar position to yesterday, still trading between the CPR levels and just below the 21 EMA. It saw a slight pullback of 2.26% yesterday, following the broader market. For XRP to break its bearish structure, it needs to form a higher low above $1.89 and then create a new higher high above $2.47. Until that happens, the market remains bearish. However, at current levels, XRP presents an excellent dollar-cost averaging or buying opportunity for those with a long-term bullish outlook.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

The recent move back to the bottom of the range has shifted the structure from neutral to bearish. However, bulls have continued to provide buying support at $81.6k, the lower end of the range. BTC has since bounced and reclaimed three of its four moving averages. If this rally can be sustained, the momentum may shift back to the bulls.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 18 Mar: $ - 9.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Wed, 19 Mar 2025 13:33:45 +1100<![CDATA[The Bear’s Bet Grows to $520M]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/the-bear-s-bet-grows-to-520m
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A quiet start to the week, with no notable events shaking up the crypto markets—a welcome change considering the chaos of the last few months. Bitcoin is up 1.8% over the last 24 hours, with the rest of the market showing some green too. But what’s happening with the bear in the short position?

Yesterday’s morning note showed the bear’s position worth $460 million, sitting on nearly $6 million in unrealised gains. Today, the bear hunters are closing in. Not only has the bear increased the position size to $520 million, but it’s no longer in any unrealised profits. Instead, the bear is now down $122,623.13 in unrealised losses, with an average entry of $83,898. The liquidation level remains at $85,564—less than 2% away. Meanwhile, the funding costs for this position continue to mount and are nearing $500k. The longer this position stays open, the larger those costs will grow.

Bitcoin is still trading within the $81.6k–$85.2k range. It’s now been over a week since we first fell into this zone, with no successful attempt to sustain a move back above the top. Could Powell’s upcoming presser in a couple of days provide the breakout the market needs?

Altcoin News: Sui’s ETF Boost, Ethereum’s Sentiment Slump

One of our favourite altcoins, Sui, has received a spot ETF filing from Canary Capital, giving it an extra boost today—up 6%.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s sentiment has turned extremely negative, reflected in its price action. To make matters worse, Standard Chartered Bank has slashed its year-end price target for ETH by a massive 60%, dropping from $10,000 to $4,000.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.34)

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency is back in the Stormrake Spotlight… After a massive November rally, XRP has been stuck in a wide range between $2–$3, with only brief deviations beyond it. Currently, it’s trading in the lower half of the range, showing bearish momentum and a bearish structure.

XRP is facing resistance at the 21 and 55 EMAs, as well as key monthly CPR levels. If it can form a higher low above $1.89, it could be the first sign of bulls reclaiming control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has flipped momentum back to the bulls but remains in an overall neutral structure. A higher low was formed last night, but the rally that followed quickly topped out, creating another lower high—further reinforcing the neutral stance.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 17 Mar: $ + 105.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 14:14:34 +1100<![CDATA[Bear Hunting: Whales vs. the $460M Bitcoin Short]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/bear-hunting-whales-vs.-the-460m-bitcoin-shortIt's bear hunting season as whales attempt to liquidate a massive Bitcoin short.]]>
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Over the last 24 hours, we’ve witnessed a major bear open a massive leveraged position on Bitcoin. Initially, it was a $330 million short at 40x cross leverage when Bitcoin was at $84,040. This has now increased to a $460 million position, as the trader expanded their stake to avoid liquidation.

On the initial $330 million position, the liquidation level was $85,300, leaving little margin for error. Many speculated that this was either an insider trader with privileged information or simply a high-stakes gambler. At first, the bear was sitting comfortably in profit as Bitcoin dropped to $82,300. But then, the market struck back.

A group of whales banded together to force liquidation, triggering what could be called bear-hunting season. In just nine minutes, these whales managed to pump Bitcoin up 2.3% to $85,100—just $200 away from the bear’s liquidation level. The aggressive move left the bear scrambling, ultimately adding to their position to push their liquidation price higher.

Unfortunately for the whales, the bear survived by the skin of their teeth and is now sitting in even greater profit, as the market failed to sustain the rally and retraced downward.
*For those interested in tracking the trader’s positions live, check out the image and the link above.*

Bitcoin’s Range Holds Firm—For Now

Despite the volatility and bear-hunting drama, Bitcoin remains within its established range of $81K–$85K. While this massive bear short position makes it seem like the bears are in control, the bigger picture suggests neutral market conditions. However, this week could bring a decisive move.

The market is already bracing for the latest round of Trump tariff news, which seems to be becoming a frequent market disruptor. More significantly, all eyes are on Jerome Powell’s press conference following the interest rate decision on Thursday morning—an event that could finally push Bitcoin out of this range.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.52)

After five consecutive bullish days, Sonic has experienced a timely 9.90% retracement, meeting the 21 EMA. This pullback presents a key buying opportunity and a chance to dollar-cost average below a critical accumulation level.

Despite the overall bearish market, Sonic continues to dominate on-chain and exhibit promising price action—a strong sign for its future potential.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin remains range-bound between $81,600 and $85,200. The recent failed attempt to liquidate the bear is evident in a candle with an extremely long wick, which met the top of the range before rejecting sharply.

With Bitcoin now trading below all key moving averages, momentum has flipped back in favour of the bears.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 16 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum has now spent almost a full week consolidating between $1,797 and $2,019. Overnight, ETH saw another bearish flip of the 21 and 55 EMA, reinforcing downside momentum.

At present, ETH favours a move toward the lower end of the consolidation range unless bulls can reclaim key levels.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 16 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 14:08:55 +1100<![CDATA[Markets Post Best Day of 2025—Can the Rally Hold?]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/markets-post-best-day-of-2025—can-the-rally-holdWith no new tariff headlines and signs of progress in Russia, markets have rallied.]]>
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Seems as though yesterday was the first day in a while without any tariff-related headlines dominating the news, and markets rallied in response. Not only were there no fresh tariff developments, but progress is supposedly being made in Eastern Europe, with Trump stating he had "very good and productive" talks with Putin and that there is a "very good chance" the war will end.

Gold has broken $3,000 per ounce for the first time in history, the S&P 500 had its best day since November 6, and Bitcoin is up 4% on the day, taking it back to the topside of its range. The question now is whether markets can sustain this greenery.

Thursday morning brings another FOMC meeting and interest rate decision, with a 99% probability of no cuts. The real event to watch is Powell’s press conference afterward, where he’ll address the state of the economy, the impact of tariffs, and more. His tone—whether hawkish or dovish—will set the direction for the markets.

Trump’s Economic Strategy and Market Volatility

Trump's 2025 economic strategy embraces "short-term pain for long-term gain" as he seeks to refinance $9.2 trillion in U.S. debt maturing that year. By deliberately inducing an economic slowdown through tariffs, government job cuts, and policies aimed at lowering oil prices, Trump hopes to curb inflation and interest rates, making refinancing cheaper. This has caused immediate pain—over $5 trillion has been erased from U.S. stock markets and a near 30% decline in Bitcoin—but the long-term goal is to stabilise national debt and foster a stronger economy once rates decline.

As we’ve mentioned countless times, this bearishness is temporary and should be seen as a prime buying opportunity for Bitcoin and strong altcoins. The market will turn, and those who take advantage of these dips often reap the biggest rewards when the next bull cycle begins.

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said time and time again, these dips are golden buying opportunities. History has proven this true—and those who have acted accordingly have seen massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.52)

Sonic is up 30% from the low made just four days ago, bouncing perfectly from a bullish order block—another golden opportunity to DCA into your position. Yesterday saw another 9% gain, not only confirming a crucial higher low but also reclaiming a key accumulation level for S. Some immediate resistance lies at the 21 and 55 EMA, but the chart remains promising.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has rallied back to the top of the range at the key level of $85.2K, breaking above all moving averages and flipping momentum back in favour of the bulls. However, a clear break of this level is crucial—otherwise, the bears will have successfully defended it once again. Until BTC decisively breaks $81.6K, it remains in no man's land.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 14 Mar: $ + 37.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum remains in a prolonged consolidation phase but is showing signs of attempting to push towards the top of its range and reclaim $2,000 after flipping momentum back to the bulls.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 14 Mar: $ - 10.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 13:52:16 +1100<![CDATA[The Market Is Heavily Short—What Comes Next?]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/the-market-is-heavily-short—what-comes-next
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Sentiment across all markets is extremely bearish, as reflected in the sharp corrections seen across both traditional and crypto markets. The S&P 500 is down 10% from its all-time high set less than a month ago, while Bitcoin has dropped 26% from its peak in late January. This downturn is largely driven by the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs, which have heightened concerns over both political stability and macroeconomic conditions.

The graph below illustrates the five-day moving average of total US option put volumes over the past five years. Put options are contracts bought by investors who anticipate a decline in asset prices, allowing them to sell at a predetermined higher price to either lock in profits or hedge against losses. In short, put buyers are betting on markets falling.
Over the past month, we’ve seen a significant surge in put volume, now reaching a five-year high—eclipsing spikes seen during COVID, geopolitical conflicts, and recession fears. This is an unusual development, considering markets were hitting all-time highs just weeks ago. Today, however, we’re witnessing the highest level of put option activity in half a decade.

So, what does this mean for the markets? Well, with put volumes at extreme levels, the consensus expectation is that markets will continue to slide—sentiment is overwhelmingly fearful. However, when the majority of investors are positioned in one direction, the market often has a way of moving the other. As Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

This certainly looks like one of those moments. Extreme fear, paired with record-high put activity, could set the stage for a move that catches most investors off guard.

If the put buyers turn out to be right, then take it as an opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin at lower prices…

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Sonic is showing impressive strength despite broader market weakness. While Bitcoin is down 3% on the day, S is up 8%. More significant than the daily gain, however, is the fact that Sonic has bounced off a key must-hold order block and appears to have set a higher low on a larger time frame—an extremely bullish sign.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

After showing some promising signs, Bitcoin has fallen back below the key $81.6K level—the bottom of its range. This move has flipped momentum in favour of the bears and put BTC’s structure at risk. Given the current price action, a break below $80K looks more likely than a reclaim of $85.2K in the short term.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 13 Mar: $ - 79.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum remains trapped under the 21 & 55 EMAs, with every upside attempt being rejected—clear evidence that the bears are still in control. Until ETH can reclaim these moving averages, downside pressure is likely to persist. Expect a retest of the key $1,797 level in the near term.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 13 Mar: $ - 47.4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 13:43:24 +1100<![CDATA[CPI Falls Below Expectations – Is Inflation Dropping?]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/CPI-Falls-Below-Expectations-Is-Inflation-Dropping
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Last night, we saw the monthly CPI data release, with Core CPI MoM forecasted at 0.3%, headline CPI MoM at 0.3%, and YoY at 2.9%. All were expected to decline from February’s readings—and decline they did, even further than anticipated. Core CPI MoM came in at 0.2%, headline CPI MoM at 0.2%, and YoY at 2.8%, all below expectations, signalling that inflation has cooled over the past month.

Will this trend continue, or will anticipated tariffs drive inflation back up?

Implications for Rate Cuts

What does this mean for potential rate cuts? With the upcoming FOMC meeting just a week away, the probability of no change was already at 97% before last night’s data. Now, it's up to 99%, with markets still anticipating the first rate cut in June.

Bitcoin’s Reaction to CPI Data

Bitcoin’s immediate reaction to the data was extremely volatile, spiking to $84.5K within the first hour of the release. However, as the market digested the figures, BTC retraced back to around $83K—where it had been trading for most of the previous day.

This event wasn’t inherently bullish or bearish for Bitcoin, but as expected, it brought volatility. BTC remains in a consolidation range between $81K and $85K, and a sustained break in either direction will dictate the trend.

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who have done so have reaped massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Despite a negative-looking chart, there are some positive signs for Sonic (S). The token is finding bids at the bullish order block, having fallen into it over the past three days but closing above it each time—a promising sign for what is a must-hold level.


If Bitcoin reclaims $85K, bidding S at these levels could be a golden opportunity—especially if the market turns bullish and S re-emerges as a leading project.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

On the hourly chart, Bitcoin is starting to show more signs of life, with a bullish cross of the 21EMA and 55EMA, as well as a higher high following last night’s CPI-driven volatility. A clear range has been established between the key support of $81.6K and key resistance of $85.2K.

Both levels are critical for bulls and bears—whichever side breaks first will determine the higher timeframe trend.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 12 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum remains stuck in its range between $1,797 and $2,019, with bears still in control. The 55EMA has been a persistent challenge, rejecting ETH for the third time in two days. Structure and momentum remain on the bearish side for now.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 12 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 13:12:17 +1100