Stormrake - Insights #Bitcoin ETF

You Travelled Through the Fire and the Flames, and Now We're Here.

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:39:59 +1000

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Today’s morning note is a tad longer than usual, but it’s a must read for anyone tracking Bitcoin price and the search for the cycle low. I’d urge you to stick around and read it in full.

For readers who’ve been with us for close to 12 months, you may recall the Morning Note welcoming everyone to the bear market. That call was based on key technical analysis that has historically signalled the start of past bear markets.

We may not be far from the point where that same analysis flips to confirm the bull market. Today we’re covering similar technical signals that have historically marked the end of a bear market, and for the first time in this cycle, the weight of evidence is stacking up in the bulls’ favour. The case is building fast, and it’s looking increasingly hard to bet against.

The Bear Market Trendline

There’s genuinely bullish price-action on the charts this week. Bitcoin has begun crossing the 2026 bear market trend line we’ve been tracking with clients for months - the descending line connecting every lower high since October’s peak. For the first time since this bear market began, Monday’s daily close popped through it, and yesterday’s close held above it too - now we just launched above it. Historically, that high volume cross has meant something specific: once a Bitcoin bear market trend line breaks, the bottom is already in, and price has never gone back below the recent lows.

The daily chart backs this up structurally as well as a textbook inverse head and shoulders has formed since June. Monday’s candle broke straight through the trend line and just blew past the neckline resistance ~ $65,000. On the shorter timeframe, price had been compressing inside a symmetrical triangle for weeks, and that Monday buying candle is exactly the kind of decisive move triangles like this eventually resolve with, which you’re now seeing today.

The strong move higher from support here is the exact setup flagged in last Friday’s note titled “The Return Australian Housing Would Need to Match Bitcoin’s Next Cycle” we signalled that if we saw more chop sideways, then a sharp turn up, this potentially could be the sign that continued price appreciation with rising volatility were next to come, potentially seeing a move towards $70,000 and beyond - which we identified would likely happen quickly, because that’s what a Bitcoin cycle bottom has always looked like.

This morning we’ve all just woken up to this reality, Bitcoin just zipped up to a high of exactly $70,033, a whopping near +10% move overnight when measured from low to high in just 24 hours.

The market delivered precisely our signal. Price failed to lose $62,000 over the weekend despite sellers pushing for it, then Monday’s strong buying candle closing at $64,500 confirmed the shift. That failure to break lower, followed immediately by strong conviction buying, was the market’s own signal that this cycle’s leg to the downside is done.

Any pullback or sideways price-action to allow investors the ability to further accumulate before we see a breakout of $100,000 on the print over the coming six to twelve months is a gift - not a given. If that plays out, it would be an extremely strong entry, and it’s increasingly unlikely a sub-$60,000 print happens again this cycle now that the trend line has broken with force in favour of the bulls. Investors waiting for that level to come back should treat that window as closing, not opening.

History backs the framework too. The 2018 bear market trend line and the 2022 bear market trend line both marked the exact same pattern, once price closed back above that descending line, the low was already locked in for good. Some chop followed both crossings in the weeks after, but neither cycle ever revisited those lows again. The 2026 trend line just did the same thing this week.

Trend line breaks with massive buying force like this don’t happen often, in-fact it’s only once every four years. Bitcoin’s own history says they mean exactly what they look like, the bottom is behind us. Between the inverse head and shoulders setup, the symmetrical triangle compression, and last weekends failed breakdown followed by Monday’s reclaim and today’s follow through, the pieces are lining up the same way they did in 2018 and 2022. If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines for a lower entry, this is the moment to talk to your Stormrake broker about it, as that window may already be closing.

The Moving Average That Dictates The Bear Market

The key moving average that has determined the end of past bear markets is the 50 exponential moving average on the daily timeframe (the green line on the chart below).

A sustained break of the 50 EMA, supported by volume, has historically marked the point where the bear market ended. The moves that failed to hold shared two things in common. Either they lacked the volume to sustain the breakout, or they came too early in the cycle, before enough pain and drawdown had actually played out. A fakeout without volume, or a fakeout that hasn’t earned its stripes through a proper flush, has never been the real thing.

We’re now ten months on from Bitcoin’s all time high. In our Q3 Outlook we estimated a bottom was likely to form within this quarter, and it’s looking like close enough is good enough. This week we’ve finally seen the decisive move above the 50 EMA, and this time volume is supporting it rather than fading away like the earlier attempts did.

The same pattern has played out in every major cycle. In 2014/15, 2018/19, and 2022, the early breakout attempts above the 50 EMA lacked the volume to hold, and price rolled back over each time. It wasn’t until the break came with real volume behind it that the bottom was actually in and the next leg higher began.

Source: Stormrake Research

Historically, this exact combination, a sustained 50EMA break with volume behind it, has marked the bottom of the last three major cycles. We’re watching now for that same pattern to confirm and hold.

Watching, Not Waiting

This is an extremely important period to be paying attention to. Between the trend line break, the inverse head and shoulders, the failed breakdown below $62,000, and now the 50 EMA reclaiming with volume behind it, the signals are stacking up in a way we haven’t seen since the last two cycle bottoms. We’re not calling it just, but the pieces are lining up quickly.

If this move holds and confirms the way it has in 2018 and 2022, the article welcoming you to the bull market looks to be right around the corner.

However, as a buyer, sitting on your hands entirely is what tends to cause the most damage. History shows the moves off these lows happen quickly, and hesitating too long is usually what costs investors the upside once the bull run is confirmed.

For those who have been dollar cost averaging while waiting for lower prices, it’s worth remembering that DCA is a strategy built for uncertain or falling markets. It works against you once the market turns and starts moving higher. We’ve seen this pattern play out time and time again. Investors waiting for a lower entry end up missing a significant part of the move, or in some cases don’t get back in at all. If you’re still waiting for lower prices or currently dollar cost averaging, get in touch with your dedicated Stormrake broker as soon as possible to talk through your options.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis and James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

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Inside the Zone: What Bitcoin's Production Cost Tells Us Now

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 10:37:10 +1000

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Last week we covered the AI pivot underway among Bitcoin miners, where rising energy costs are pushing some miners to switch part of their operations over to AI computing instead of mining Bitcoin. Today we’re digging into the idea behind that story: Bitcoin’s cost of production. What it is, why it matters for price, and how it can help us spot a bottom.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,600, which puts it inside what we call the cost of production zone. It’s below the top end of that zone, but still above the middle. We’ll explain exactly what that means below.

What Is “Cost of Production” and Why Does It Matter?

Mining Bitcoin costs money. Miners need to buy hardware and pay for electricity to run it, and that adds up to a real dollar cost for every Bitcoin they produce. Think of it like the cost of digging gold out of the ground: if the gold price falls below what it costs to mine it, miners lose money and eventually shut down.

The same thing happens with Bitcoin. When the price falls close to what it costs to produce, the least efficient miners start losing money and switch off their machines. Fewer miners means the network adjusts, and it becomes cheaper again to mine relative to the price. This tends to create a floor under the market.

It’s not a hard floor though. Miners can run at a loss for a while before they give up, and the cost of production itself moves around depending on Bitcoin’s price, energy costs and mining difficulty. So it’s best to think of this as a zone, not an exact line.

Checking Two Different Sources

We’re tracking the model above from Simple Mining, and also checked it against data from Cambridge University’s CBECI (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index), a well respected academic source. Both currently agree that Bitcoin is trading within this cost zone:

The model above: average estimate of $50,821, with an upper bound of $67,526
Cambridge (CBECI): estimated at $43,256, with an upper bound of $75,922

At $64,600, Bitcoin is sitting well above the Cambridge estimate and below the upper end of the model’s range. The two sources broadly agree on the general zone, which gives us more confidence that Bitcoin genuinely is in this cost of production territory, rather than it being a quirk of one particular model.

One thing worth flagging: Cambridge’s number only accounts for electricity costs. It doesn’t include things like hardware, rent or staff wages, which real miners also have to pay. That’s a big part of why its estimate runs lower than the model above, and why the true cost for many miners is likely higher than the Cambridge figure alone suggests.

What History Tells Us

Bitcoin has spent time in this cost of production zone before, and both previous major bottoms happened here:

December 2018: Cambridge estimated the cost of production at around $3,269
November 2022: Cambridge estimated the cost of production at around $14,704

Both of those turned out to be major cycle lows.

There’s also a longer term pattern worth noting. Each bear market low has landed a bit higher up in the cost of production zone than the one before it, rather than falling further below it. In the early days, Bitcoin’s price would crash well under the bottom of the zone before turning around. More recently, it has tended to bottom closer to the middle or top of the zone instead. This pattern has held consistently since 2015.

That matters for how we read the current situation. Just because Bitcoin is in the cost of production zone now doesn’t mean it has to fall further. If the historical pattern continues, a shallower bottom within the zone is more likely than a deep crash below it.

The Key Points

Bitcoin is currently trading in the cost of production zone, with two independent data sources in agreement.
Time spent in this zone has historically lined up with major market bottoms.
Cost of production should be thought of as a zone of support, not an exact price.
Over time, bottoms have tended to land higher up in the zone rather than lower, so the current setup doesn’t automatically point to further downside.

Zooming out, periods where Bitcoin trades in this cost of production zone have historically coincided with the later stages of past bear markets, both in 2018 and 2022. That’s the pattern worth watching, whichever way this cycle plays out.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,331)

The bears have reminded PAXG that they are still there and in for the fight, sending it down 2% over the last 24 hours. It still remains above key moving averages, so there’s nothing to worry about yet and the momentum stays bullish, though the bears remain a threat to stop this move at the resistance zone.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Whilst Bitcoin has only increased by 0.34%, it’s incredibly constructive. Commodities and traditional markets have pulled back whilst BTC is looking to sustain this breakout. This current breakout is a must hold for bulls across multiple timeframes. The longer BTC stays above and continues higher without coming back to the $63.8k level, the better.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Line Between Betting and Investing Is Blurring

Tue, 18 Aug 2026 10:30:58 +1000

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A recent study covered by Bloomberg is worth sitting with for a moment. Citing new survey data from Betterment, it showed that 24% of Americans have redirected money earmarked for investing into sports betting at least once in the past year. Among Gen Z, that figure jumps to 52%. Even more striking, a quarter of Gen Z respondents said they treat sports betting as a deliberate part of their long term financial strategy, more than double the overall population rate of 12%.

Millennials are not far behind, with 31% having diverted investing funds into betting and 14% calling it part of their financial plan. Gen X and Boomers, by comparison, barely register.

The reporting included an example that made the trend feel less abstract. A 32 year old from Huntington, New York, described how he applies the same discipline to sports betting that he once reserved for stock picking. He does research before placing wagers, sticks to $100 a time, and this year has turned a profit of roughly $2,500, enough to fund a holiday. His own words were telling: he sees it as being smart about gambling, not as a hobby.

So What Actually Separates Investing From Gambling

The instinctive answer is that investing involves an underlying asset with a claim on future cash flows or utility, while gambling is a bet on a discrete outcome with no productive value attached. A share in a business represents part ownership of real earnings. A bet on a football match represents nothing beyond the result of that match.

That distinction holds up reasonably well in theory. In practice, it has been getting blurrier for years, and prediction markets are the clearest example. Platforms now let people take positions on elections, interest rate decisions, weather events, award shows and celebrity gossip. Wrap it in the language of markets and odds, and suddenly wagering on the outcome of a political race looks and feels a lot like taking a view on a stock. The mechanics are functionally identical to sports betting. Only the framing has changed.

The Uncomfortable Comparison

Here is where it gets harder to draw a clean line. How different is a same game multi/parlay from buying a penny stock with no revenue, no product and a market cap built entirely on story? How different is going in on a memecoin from putting $100 on an underdog at long odds? Both are bets on a low probability, high payout outcome, priced by sentiment rather than fundamentals.

The uncomfortable truth is that a large share of activity inside crypto already sits closer to gambling than investing. The memecoin cycle on Solana was pure speculation where 99.99% lost, and the data on the vast majority of altcoins outside Bitcoin is not kind. Most of them spend most of their existence grinding lower, a slow bleed toward zero punctuated by short bursts of hype. Buying into that cycle on the hope of catching the next 100x is not fundamentally different from a multi/parlay. It might be dressed up as investing, but the behaviour underneath is speculation on an outcome, not allocation to an asset with a thesis behind it.

None of this is a moral judgement on people who bet or trade small and speculative positions. The point is simply that the label someone puts on the activity, investing or gambling, often matters less than the process behind it.

What Actually Makes Something Investing

The real dividing line is not the asset. It is the approach. Investing means having a thesis you can explain, a time horizon measured in years rather than a weekend, and a position sized so that being wrong does not derail your plan. Gambling, whatever the venue, is defined by the opposite: no thesis beyond hope, no horizon beyond the next result, and sizing driven by emotion rather than a plan.

That is the real test worth applying to any allocation, sports bet, prediction market position, penny stock or altcoin included, but time horizon on its own is not enough. A long holding period is a necessary feature of investing, not a sufficient one. Holding a zero revenue altcoin or a failing penny stock for two years without a genuine thesis does not turn the position into an investment, it simply turns a short term gamble into a long term bagholding exercise.

The sharper question is whether the position has a claim on something productive: earnings, cash flows, revenue or structural utility that can compound over time. That is what gives an allocation a genuine chance of a positive outcome. A bet on a sports result, a same game parlay or a token with no revenue and no adoption path is a wager on a discrete or zero sum outcome, and stretching the holding period to two years does not change the underlying maths. It only delays the result.

This is also why Bitcoin sits apart from most of what gets lumped in with it under the crypto umbrella. Its fixed supply schedule, growing adoption through spot ETFs, and emerging role as a neutral global settlement layer give it a structural thesis that most of the market does not have. Positioning around Bitcoin does not rely on a single catalyst or a discrete outcome. It rests on a case for genuine long term value, which is the actual definition of investing, and it is worth remembering the difference the next time the line between the two starts to blur.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,409)

Another positive day for PAXG, up nearly 1% over the last 24 hours as it sustains the move above the key moving averages and looks to prepare itself to challenge the overhead resistance zone. Things are looking bullish for PAXG.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

A strong move for Bitcoin over the last 24 hours has seen it climb over 2.2% and back above the key level of $63.8k; the bulls are back in control of the momentum. This move is a real test to see how strong the bulls are, and it feels like this could be the beginning of the move to break the consolidation and put the bears to bed…

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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What Happens When the Middleman Goes Down

Mon, 17 Aug 2026 10:54:10 +1000

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If you tried to tap your card at Woolworths, Coles or anywhere else on Saturday afternoon and it just wouldn’t go through, you weren’t imagining things and you weren’t alone. Mastercard suffered a widespread outage across Australia over the weekend, and more than 2,000 people reported the issue at its peak. Commonwealth Bank and NAB both confirmed their customers were affected, and Commonwealth Bank went as far as telling shoppers to stop using tap and go altogether and switch to inserting their card and selecting “savings” to get through eftpos instead. Mastercard later said the disruption was caused by a scheduled system update and that services had been restored, but for a few hours on a Saturday, a huge number of everyday transactions simply didn’t work.

Think about how that actually played out for the person standing at the checkout. Card declined, second card declined, and then the very human moment of patting down your pockets for cash you probably don’t carry anymore. As we move further into a cashless society, fewer of us keep a backup plan. When the primary rail goes down, there often isn’t a plan B sitting in your wallet.

Free Marketing, Courtesy of Mastercard

Here’s the part worth sitting with. This is effectively free marketing for Bitcoin. Not because Bitcoin is trying to replace your Saturday shopping trip tomorrow, but because the entire reason Bitcoin exists is written into the opening line of Satoshi Nakamoto’s whitepaper: “A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.” That sentence was written specifically with this kind of failure in mind. A scheduled update at a payments company shouldn’t be able to stop people from spending their own money, and yet on Saturday, it did.

For context, and to keep this factually honest rather than turning it into a slogan, Bitcoin’s network has not had a perfect record either. It has gone down twice in its history, in 2010 and 2013, and both were software bugs that were patched within hours. Since that second incident in 2013, though, the network hasn’t gone down once. That’s close to 14 years of continuous uptime, sitting at somewhere around 99.98% across its entire life. It’s commonly cited, including by people inside the tech industry itself, that this track record now runs ahead of the uptime posted by companies like Amazon, Google and Facebook over comparable periods. So the fairer claim isn’t that Bitcoin has never gone down. It’s that Bitcoin hasn’t needed a company to schedule an update on your behalf, and it has now stayed online longer without interruption than most of the infrastructure we rely on every day, through bull markets, bear markets, exchange collapses and everything in between.

We’re not going to pretend this is a clean win for crypto adoption. Bitcoin still isn’t something you can tap at Woolies, and for the overwhelming majority of merchants around the world, it isn’t a practical alternative to a card in your pocket today. That’s a fair criticism and we’re not going to argue around it.

But moments like Saturday are a lesson worth remembering, not because everyone needs to rush out and change how they pay for groceries, but because it’s a reminder that your ability to spend your own money shouldn’t depend entirely on a third party’s system staying online. It’s a small crack in the reliability of the rails we’ve all agreed to trust without thinking twice. Cracks like this don’t need to happen often to matter. Every outage, every frozen account, every “sorry, our systems are down” moment chips away a little more at the assumption that centralised payment rails are simply infallible. Over time, that frustration is what pushes people to look for alternatives, and a decentralised system built specifically to remove that single point of failure is the obvious place to look.

And here’s where the two threads tie together. The more people who reach that conclusion and act on it, the more demand there is for the asset itself, and that’s a big part of what has driven Bitcoin’s price higher over its history. So the use case and the investment case aren’t separate stories, they’re the same story told from two angles. Owning and controlling your own money is the point. The fact that doing so has also meant your wealth has grown over time is what makes the proposition genuinely hard to ignore.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,366)

After spending the majority of the year in the bears’ hands, PAXG has confirmed a bullish structure flip and momentum reclaim. Great signs for the bulls, firmly above key moving averages and up 10% from the low. We now turn our attention to the key zone above, which acted as support for three months earlier in the year and is now resistance ($4,463 to $4,600). Current support sits at the 200 exponential moving average of $4,344.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin price action has been extremely boring for the month of August, hovering around the key level of $63.8k, with both bulls and bears making attempts to move away from this level but neither side having much success, each time finding its way back. Currently the bears have the slight upper hand as BTC trades below $63k, but unless there is a decisive move to $60.1k, we can expect the consolidation to continue.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Return Australian Housing Would Need to Match Bitcoin's Next Cycle

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 18:17:58 +1000

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Australian housing has compounded for nearly four decades without a genuine bear market. Since 1991, national prices have never fallen for more than two consecutive years, downturns have averaged just 12 months and 4.3%, while growth phases have averaged 41 months and 34%. The 30-year average sits around 6.4% to 7.25% nominal per year. Bitcoin, by contrast, has had four brutal multi-year drawdowns already, each one followed by a recovery larger than the one before it.

The Data Doesn’t Lie

The comparison is worth running. As at 30 June 2026, the national median dwelling value sits at $937,722 AUD, Sydney at $1,265,608, Melbourne at $808,486. Bitcoin currently trades around $63,000 USD, roughly $89,000 AUD. Take a conservative scenario: Bitcoin reaches $200,000 USD (~$282,500 AUD) within this cycle’s typical three to four year window, a 3.17x return, below the scale of each of its three prior expansions. To match that, national housing would need to reach roughly $2.98 million, Sydney $4.02 million, requiring sustained growth of around 33.5% per year for four years, or 47% per year over three. The best sustained stretch in this market’s modern history, 1998 to 2003, delivered around 10% a year. Nothing in housing’s own history comes close to what matching Bitcoin’s next leg would actually require.

Sydney and Melbourne are already sliding, and leverage makes that sting fast. Sydney’s median has fallen roughly 3.7% since its January 2026 peak, Melbourne around 4.2% since December 2025, the steepest quarterly Melbourne house fall in almost four years. Combined capital prices fell for the first time in over three years this year, ending the longest growth run since 2012 to 2015. NAB has lifted its 2026 national decline forecast to 5%, Morgan Stanley has flagged a possible 10% fall, which would be the largest in at least 40 years.

Leverage is a Risk, Regardless of the Asset Class

Here’s where leverage turns a modest correction into a real problem. A buyer using the government’s 5% deposit scheme is borrowing 95% of the property’s value, which is roughly a 20 to 1 leverage bet. A price fall of just over 5% is enough to wipe out their entire equity. This isn’t hypothetical, nine of the ten postcodes with the highest uptake of the First Home Buyer Guarantee have already recorded declines since the start of 2026, and an estimated 50,000 recent first home buyers nationally are facing this exact squeeze. A 5% deposit buyer isn’t making a cautious entry into the market, they’re taking a 20 to 1 leveraged position on an asset that was already historically expensive before this year’s correction began, with almost no equity cushion to absorb a downturn well within the market’s normal range.

From 10 August 2026, SMSFs can no longer use limited recourse borrowing arrangements to buy residential property, existing loans are grandfathered and commercial borrowing is unaffected, but the strategy that let a modest SMSF balance leverage into a much larger residential purchase has been legislated shut. As things stand, no equivalent restriction applies to holding Bitcoin inside an SMSF, the existing rules around the sole purpose test, diversification and valuation remain unchanged. One asset class inside super just lost one of its most effective growth levers. The other remains exactly as accessible as it’s always been.

One Door Closes, One Stays Open

Housing’s strength has never been speed, it’s been the near-total absence of a real bear market for four decades. Bitcoin’s strength is the opposite, drawdowns brutal enough to reset the base for genuinely explosive recoveries. Matching even a conservative Bitcoin target isn’t asking housing for a strong year, it’s asking for four years of growth roughly five times faster than this asset has ever sustained. Layer on the leverage many first home buyers are actually carrying right now, and the risk-adjusted picture looks worse still: a highly leveraged bet on an already expensive asset, with a margin of error measured in single-digit percentages, at the exact moment forecasters are debating how much further this correction runs. With SMSF residential leverage options narrowing while Bitcoin remains fully accessible inside super, evaluating digital asset allocations within superannuation represents an increasingly relevant consideration for trustees.

Stormrake works directly with SMSF trustees to structure compliant Bitcoin exposure inside super, covering regulatory requirements, secure custody, and reporting. If you hold an SMSF and want to discuss how this operational structure works, your dedicated Stormrake broker is ready to assist - contact them today.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,352)

PAXG remains mostly sideways over the last few days, although bears are slowly pushing price lower now with a -1.20% day in the red. One thing to note is that while price is in the process of a small correction and retest of local supports, the Moving Average 20 and 50 have and are still signalling a “bullish crossover”. Essentially meaning, trend has started to shift upwards with the recent rally and remains as such.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin quickly swept below $63,000 overnight and has come into a low of $62,802.27 overnight. The accumulation in this zone is looking healthy as Bitcoin still retains a higher low from the ColdCard exploit sell-off earlier in the month. If trend continues to chop sideways here over the next week - and then we see a sharp turn-up in price thereafter, that’d be a clear indication we’re ready for pumps to the upside with increasing volatility. This scenario may see BTC zipping up to $70,000+. If it comes, it’ll happen quickly, as this is usually what a Bitcoin cycle bottom historically looks like. Invalidation would be increasing and sustained selling momentum below $62,000.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Miner Capitulation and the AI Energy Pivot

Thu, 13 Aug 2026 14:34:35 +1000

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MARA Holdings, the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner, disclosed in its August 6 filing that it sold 23,093 BTC for approximately $1.63 billion across the first half of 2026, at an average price of $70,631. The sale reduced MARA’s Bitcoin holdings by 34%, from 53,822 coins at the end of 2025 down to 35,577 by June 30. The money went toward paying off debt and funding a move into AI and data centre infrastructure, including a $1.5 billion deal and a $600 million Texas project. MARA also dropped its old policy of never selling Bitcoin, in favour of a more flexible approach.

Worth noting, this selling isn’t happening right now - it already happened, spread out gradually over five months with the biggest chunk sold back in March. The market has already absorbed it and moved on. MARA isn’t alone either, miners across the industry sold more Bitcoin in the first three months of 2026 than they did across the whole of 2025. Several major mining companies have signed multi-billion dollar deals to host AI computing instead, showing this is an industry-wide shift, not just one company’s decision.

Evolving Economics and Infrastructure Diversification

Mining simply became less profitable this year. It cost miners close to $90,000 on average to produce one Bitcoin, while Bitcoin itself was trading between $65,000 and $70,000, a losing trade for a lot of operators. Some estimates suggest 15% to 20% of miners worldwide were losing money.

Rather than shutting down, most public miners are turning into broader energy and computing businesses. Several expect to earn most of their revenue this year from renting out computing power to AI companies rather than from mining Bitcoin itself. Think of it less as miners giving up on Bitcoin, and more as miners finding a second business line to stay afloat while conditions are tough.

Capitulation Signals Versus Network Security Realities

Miners being forced to sell at a loss is something that’s happened before, and it has usually shown up close to the bottom of a bear market rather than the start of something worse. Bitcoin mining got roughly 20% easier this year as struggling miners switched off their machines, one of the biggest easing periods on record. The two times this has happened before, in 2018 and after China banned mining in 2021, both turned out to mark a floor rather than a collapse. Weaker miners dropping out while stronger ones keep going is simply the system clearing itself out.

The total computing power protecting Bitcoin did drop by around 12% from its peak, but that’s a small dip by historical standards. When China banned mining in 2021, roughly half the network’s computing power disappeared overnight, and Bitcoin still recovered and went on to hit new highs. A gradual 12% dip spread across several months is a minor bump in comparison.

Algorithmic Recalibration

Here’s the clever part of how Bitcoin works. Roughly every two weeks, the network automatically checks how fast blocks are being produced and adjusts the difficulty of mining up or down to keep things running on schedule. When miners switch off, mining gets easier automatically, no one needs to step in and fix anything. That’s already happened this year, and it’s made mining more profitable again for the miners who stuck around.

An easier mining environment is also good news for smaller operators. As big US mining companies redirect their energy toward AI instead, mining is spreading out to other countries with cheap power, places like Paraguay, Ethiopia, and Oman have all become significant players this year. The US used to account for well over 40% of all mining, and that share is now levelling off. Spreading mining out across more countries and energy sources, rather than having it concentrated in one place, is a good thing for the network’s long-term stability, even though it’s worth keeping an eye on how much power sits with a handful of big mining groups.

Capitulation, Not Collapse

Put simply, this looks like a healthy reset rather than a warning sign. The $1.63 billion in Bitcoin sales happened months ago and the market has already moved past it. History shows that miners being forced to sell like this tends to happen near the bottom, not before something worse. Miners branching out into AI and energy is a sign of an industry adapting under pressure, not one that’s in trouble.

To navigate these shifts and secure your own position in digital assets, contact your dedicated Stormrake broker today.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,392)

PAXG continues to move sideways for the day, hovering just below the $4,400 mark but still in the green today by less than 1% as volatility starts to slow down. Continuation of the move would be a break above $4,400, however if the top wick of today’s daily candle is any indication - a retest of $4,300 - $4,200 may still be on the cards before it continues to trend higher.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin bears continue to wrestle the price below our short-term resistance of $63,861, currently placing BTC in the low $63,000 range this morning. If bears can maintain selling pressure, a sweep below $62,000 would be prime opportunity for further entries, although a move above the short-term resistance with conviction could spell for sustained higher prices. For now, the tug-of-war continues to define trend over the next few weeks.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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By the Time It's Confirmed, You've Already Missed the Best Part

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 14:35:58 +1000

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This range is showing the same level of choppiness we saw only once before, right after the generational cycle low was set in November 2022. Look back at that period and Bitcoin sat in a similarly directionless range for around two months before the trend finally shifted. The current range has now run for roughly two months as well. That similarity matters more than it might first appear, because of what happened next in 2022, and because of how long it took the market to actually believe it.

What 2022 Actually Looked Like From the Inside

Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 in November 2022, at the tail end of a long, grinding, choppy stretch that gave almost nobody a clean signal to act on. There was no bell that rang, no single candle that stamped the low as official. What followed that subtle, unremarkable floor, forming well before anyone expected it to solidify, was one of the strongest multi-year rallies in the asset’s history, carrying price to $126,271 by October 2025, a gain of roughly 716% from that low.

Here is the part worth sitting with. The people who captured that entire move were not the ones who waited for confirmation. Confirmation, in the sense most participants actually wait for, a clear established trend, positive headlines replacing negative ones, general agreement that the bottom had held, did not arrive until price had already recovered a large share of that eventual gain. By the time the story felt safe to believe, a significant portion of the best returns were already behind, not ahead.

Why Choppy Ranges Are the Setup, Not the Warning

Ranges like the current one get read by most participants as a warning sign, an absence of direction treated as an absence of opportunity. Read against 2022, the opposite framing holds up better. A prolonged, directionless chop with low volatility is precisely the environment that has preceded the sharpest subsequent trend shifts, not despite the uncertainty but because of it. Uncertainty is what keeps the crowd on the sidelines long enough for the actual move to begin without them.

This current range has almost matched the rough two month duration of its 2022 predecessor. The 52-day duration from 2022 isn’t measure from the absolute low to a higher low in price either - rather from absolute low to the confirmed breakout. In other words; confirmation of the move after it’s happened, where gains are being captured by the accumulation buyers already.

This similarity alone is not a guarantee of an identical outcome. It is, however, a genuine echo of the exact conditions that sat directly beneath one of Bitcoin’s largest rallies to date, and echoes like this are worth taking seriously rather than dismissing as coincidence, especially since we’ve mirrored the 2022 bear market eerily closely thus far.

The Cost of Waiting for Certainty

Waiting for certainty feels like the safe choice. It rarely is the free choice. Certainty, once it exists, is retroactive. It shows up only after price has already moved far enough that the outcome looks obvious in hindsight, and by definition, that movement has already happened by the time it arrives. Every point of that move captured before the crowd feels safe to believe it is a point of return that conviction earned and hesitation did not.

That is the real lesson sitting inside the 2022 comparison. The setup that produced a 716% rally did not look like a setup at the time. It looked exactly like this: choppy, tiring, directionless, easy to dismiss while the crowd chased assets that had already captured a significant portion of their moves. The reward went to those willing to act inside that discomfort rather than waiting for it to resolve into something that felt obvious.

History does not hand out clean signals in real time. It hands them out in hindsight, once the move is already priced in and the crowd has caught up to what conviction holders already acted on. The current range matches the shape and duration of the exact setup that sat beneath a 716% rally last cycle. Waiting for that to become undeniable before acting has a cost, and that cost is measured in precisely the gains that occur between the subtle bottom and the point everyone agrees it was one.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,362)

PAXG has started that small correction we mentioned may be a possibility yesterday, reaching a local peak of $4,425 throughout the day with a small pullback from profit-takers beginning. Bulls may defend the line at either $4,320, or they’ll want to see cheaper prices around the $4,200 mark. Either way, that last rally has begun to confirm a breakout, so trend is on your side to be bullish for Gold as it stands currently. Invalidation would be an entirely new swing low below $3,900.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

The bears have come in at the nick of time to get BTC below the aforementioned $63,861 support, now flipped short-term resistance. This means the market is providing more time to accumulate at these cheaper prices, as opposed to a renewed and prolonged cascade lower. Accumulation is a range, and being able to execute on the lower end, closer towards $62,000-$61,000 is a gift, rather than a given. Accumulation is time to do exactly that - accumulate. Bitcoin’s history demonstrates the cost of opportunity for those that hesitate in these ranges is far greater than the price to enter at these levels.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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Bear Markets End When Bad News Stops Moving Price Lower

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 14:44:39 +1000

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An established principle across financial markets holds that bull markets peak when positive catalysts fail to push valuations higher, while bear markets conclude when negative headlines no longer drive prices down. Observing this dynamic unfold in real time provides an invaluable gauge for market sentiment, especially when a severe headline tests the market’s structural integrity.

That exact scenario unfolded recently. Between late July and early August 2026, a five-year-old firmware vulnerability in Coldcard hardware wallets was exploited to drain roughly $100 million in Bitcoin across more than 5,000 addresses. This event represented a severe headline for self-custody proponents, as a silent, undetectable defect compromised holdings that owners believed were entirely secure. Under the market dynamics of the 2022 bear market, an exploit of this magnitude would have triggered widespread panic and aggressive liquidations. Instead, Bitcoin absorbed the headline and maintained a structure of printing higher lows in price.

The Structural Parallel to FTX

A compelling historical parallel exists in the collapse of FTX in November 2022. The downfall of that $32 billion exchange stands as one of the most damaging events in digital asset history, occurring near the trough of the previous cycle bear market. Looking back after Bitcoin subsequently reached fresh record highs, the collapse of FTX appears as the failure of a specific human institution rather than a structural failure of Bitcoin.

During the 2022 crisis, the Bitcoin protocol operated flawlessly, validating transactions and enforcing programmatic scarcity without interruption. The failure resided entirely within a centralised corporate entity misusing customer deposits outside the rules of the blockchain. The market panic reflected a temporary loss of confidence in human intermediaries rather than the underlying monetary asset.

Distinguishing Third-Party Failures from Protocol Integrity

Analysing the Coldcard exploit through the same lens reveals an identical pattern. Bitcoin’s consensus mechanism, blockchain ledger, and 21 million coin supply cap functioned precisely as designed. The vulnerability existed within device firmware code introduced in March 2021 that compromised random number generation. This was a manufacturer code defect rather than a flaw in Bitcoin’s cryptography.

Every major loss event across digital asset history, including Mt. Gox, BitGrail, FTX, and Coldcard, represents a failure of centralised human infrastructure built around the network. Bitcoin’s open ledger remains completely uncompromised, with zero double-spends or falsified balances since the genesis block in 2009. Blaming the base protocol for a hardware vendor’s firmware bug resembles blaming physical gold for a faulty lock on a bank vault.

Hindsight is Twenty - Twenty

Looking back at any prior bear market bottom from the comfort of a subsequent bull run, the price trajectory appears clean and almost inevitable. Retrospectively, market participants easily declare that the bottom was in, panic was overdone, and accumulation was the obvious choice. That clarity exists entirely because the ending of the story is already known.

During November 2022, the collapse of FTX did not feel like a discounted buying opportunity disguised as a short-term crisis. It felt like an existential event with no immediate guarantee that market structure would not deteriorate further. Acting with conviction in the middle of genuine fear and headlines predicting systemic failure remains extraordinarily difficult.

If executing during maximum fear were simple, every market participant would capture generational returns, eliminating the premium rewarded for taking that risk. Investors who accumulated through the depths of the 2022 panic without knowing the future outcome captured the full scale of the subsequent recovery. That financial reward reflected compensation for tolerating severe psychological discomfort rather than possessing superior market information.

The Coldcard exploit represents this cycle’s live test of that exact principle. Nobody enjoys the luxury of knowing the eventual outcome in real time. Bitcoin ultimately awards each investor the exact entry price their conviction and risk tolerance earned. Selling into fear yields a price that reflects hesitation. Accumulating through severe headlines yields an entry that reflects long-term discipline. Experiencing the discomfort of uncertainty remains an inescapable prerequisite for capturing macro market rewards.

Desk Take and Strategic Execution

When severe negative headlines fail to break market price structure, it signals that sell-side exhaustion has reached an advanced stage. Coldcard’s firmware defect represented a serious operational failure for hardware self-custody, yet Bitcoin’s order books demonstrated remarkable resilience.

To navigate market volatility and mitigate single-point-of-failure risks across digital asset holdings, connect with your dedicated Stormrake broker today to discuss our institutional-grade custody solution and disciplined spot execution frameworks.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,391)

PAXG continues it’s reign of dominance right now, as this breakout continues to move higher. Another green day totalling +1.47% currently is a good sign momentum has built in favour of the bulls now. Small corrections, and retests of support are healthy and to be expected on the rise up. If we see profit taking come in and PAXG retests the $4,200 range, this would be a great opportunity to accumulate if you missed the boat at our Key support zone between $3,900 and $4,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has made that small correction from our aforementioned Local trend resistance in yesterday’s morning note, however we’ve come right into our $63,861 support level this morning - still a higher low in price. This area for avid morning note readers will remember how much confluence this level has had over the last two months. Staying above this level means trend is in-tact to the upside, whereas below means further possibility of slightly cheaper prices in the short-term. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears over the next few days will be important in deciding that short-term direction over the coming weeks ahead.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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BIP-110: The Fight Over Bitcoin's Block Space, Explained Simply

Mon, 10 Aug 2026 14:20:18 +1000

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BIP-110, formally called the Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, is a proposed change to Bitcoin’s rules that would temporarily limit how much non-financial data can be stuffed into a transaction. It targets things like images, text, or other files directly onto Bitcoin’s blockchain rather than using it purely for payments. Supporters say this data clutters the network, raises costs for people running nodes, and pulls Bitcoin away from its core purpose as sound, permissionless money. Critics say restricting what counts as a valid transaction sets a dangerous precedent, and that Bitcoin has no business deciding whose transactions matter more than others as long as the fee is paid.

What’s Actually Going On

Picture Bitcoin’s blockchain as a big shared filing cabinet where every drawer costs money to use. Most people use it to store simple, important paperwork, who owns what money. A smaller group has started using the same drawers to store photos, artwork, and other large files, because nothing in the rules stops them. BIP-110 is a proposal to put a temporary size limit on what can go in those drawers, so the cabinet stays focused on the paperwork it was built for.

The tricky part is who gets to decide. Bitcoin has no CEO and no head office. Changes only happen if enough of the people running the network, mainly miners, agree to switch the rules at the same time. Almost none of them did. A smaller group of committed supporters went ahead and enforced the new rule anyway, simply by refusing to accept blocks that didn’t follow it. That disagreement is what actually played out over the past two days.

What Happened This Weekend

Almost nobody backed this change. Heading into the weekend, only about 2.5% of miners were on board, nowhere near the 55% needed to make it official. None of the big mining companies wanted a bar of it.

On Saturday, the disagreement turned real. Two groups mined a block at the exact same spot in the chain, one following the old rules, one following the new BIP-110 rules. Bitcoin’s main network went with the old rules and kept moving. The small group backing BIP-110 broke off onto their own separate version.

Since then, it hasn’t been close. The main Bitcoin network has powered ahead, now more than two dozen blocks in front. The BIP-110 side, with only a tiny sliver of miners behind it, has barely moved. In plain terms, Bitcoin carried on as normal, and a small breakaway group is now sitting off to the side on their own, largely ignored version.

Where This Leaves Things

BIP-110 did not fail in the shadows. It failed publicly, in the most direct way possible, by attempting to force a rule change without the broad agreement Bitcoin has always required for this kind of change, and watching the vast majority of the network simply continue on without it. The proposal isn’t necessarily gone for good, its supporters may well try again, but this specific attempt has already played out, and the result is about as clear as these things get. Bitcoin’s main chain, secured by the overwhelming majority of the network’s mining power, never missed a beat.

What This Means for Stormrake Clients

None of this affected client holdings with Stormrake, and none of it required any action on our part.

Custody comes down to who controls the keys, and that never changed. What matters in a situation like this is simple: which version of Bitcoin does everyone, exchanges, businesses, other holders, actually agree is the real one. That was always the main chain, the one that kept working normally the whole way through. Stormrake watched this closely as it played out so clients didn’t have to think about it.

This is, in a smaller way, the same argument covered in earlier notes on Bitcoin’s protocol reliability. Governance disputes like this happen at the edges of Bitcoin, among developers, miners, and node operators arguing about optional rule changes. They do not touch the core ledger itself, which kept settling transactions exactly as it has every day since 2009, without pause, while this entire disagreement played out around it.

Reach out to your dedicated Stormrake broker today if you would like to discuss protocol governance, network security, or review your general digital asset holdings.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,337)

PAXG’s “bull hammer” candle that we identified in our Friday morning note just over a week ago has held true in being a bullish signal - this simple setup has seen PAXG rally, nearing +7% in just the last week. Strong bullish momentum off key support zones are what we expected to see, hence why the accumulation and choppiness leading up to this point at such levels - is in-fact actually a great signal of a healthy and stable market, despite feeling “boring” in the moment. Trend is starting to reverse back up now, whilst bears expecting lower might become disappointed their over-extended downside targets don’t hit…sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is about to decide. This cycle’s bottoming FUD narrative, being the ColdCard Crisis came and went. Instead of making a lower low like the FTX collapse, BTC made a higher low around $62,200 instead. Now bulls and bears are fighting it out at the top end of the current range (green box), deciding whether we break through now or more accumulation in this price range over the last few months is required. Either way though, the market is looking healthy and primed on all timeframes now. Risk to reward continues to favour the bulls day by day as we grind closer to a breakout towards the upside. If we clear $67,000, bears will be punished and will need to FOMO in at higher prices eventually. Not ideal considering they’ve had two months to buy a clean bottoming accumulation pattern before the next generational run begins.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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Mirror Mirror On the Wall

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 10:26:11 +1000

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We’ve discussed timing of bear markets before, and we remain just a couple of months out from what we estimate to be the end of this one. But what about price? The current cycle low sits at $57,800, a 54% drawdown from the October all-time high near $126,000. We’re sure many of you who were around for the previous bear have felt it’s been eerily similar.

The saying goes: history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. That’s exactly what we’re seeing again.

Line this cycle up against 2021-22 and the resemblance is hard to ignore. Same shape, same rough proportions of euphoria and grind, but each time round the mirror is a little less brutal. 2021-22 saw Bitcoin fall from just under $69,000 to $15,500, a 77% peak to trough drawdown. This cycle’s 54% drawdown is shallower again, and shallower still than 2018’s 84% collapse. Each bear market has done less damage than the one before it.

What’s missing this time is the final leg. 2022’s bear market didn’t grind quietly to its low. It fell off a cliff when FTX collapsed in November, ripping another 20-odd percent off the price in days on the back of genuinely catastrophic news. That capitulation event is the piece some are waiting to see repeated before they’ll call a bottom, the “surely we get one more flush to $40-50k” crowd.

Whilst price isn’t at as large a drawdown as it was in 2022, the structure is nearly identical to what it was before the FTX collapse. Whether or not we get a catalyst for that final sharp spill over, it’s safe to say this bear market has echoed the previous one yet again.

We’d push back on the idea that we need that flush to call a low. Bear markets don’t end on a calendar date or a technical level. They end when the market stops falling on bad news. That’s the tell, not a chart pattern. Worth watching closely right now: CLARITY Act uncertainty, choppy macro data, an Extreme Fear reading on sentiment, plenty of ingredients for a scare this week, and price has largely shrugged. ETFs have been net buyers through it. That’s not nothing.

We’re not going to pretend we know whether $57,800 is the low. But the setup rhymes more with exhaustion of selling than with a market waiting for its FTX moment. Those sitting in cash for a sub-$50k print run the real risk of being the ones left on the sidelines when the news stops mattering.

More on this Monday. We’ll dig into exactly what “price stops falling on bad news” looks like in the data, and what it’s told us at past cycle lows.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,247)

Yesterday was constructive for PAXG despite closing red on the day. The fact it didn’t undergo a large pullback after the breakout is a strong signal that bulls are looking to build on this move. This is the first step in sustaining the breakout.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Momentum looks to be fading for bulls to build on the break above the key resistance level of $63.8k. We’d expect price to retest that level, and from there it’s anyone’s game.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.