Stormrake - Insights #Bitcoin Executive Order

The Rake Review: March

Sun, 30 Mar 2025 21:22:16 +1100

Bitcoin Becomes Strategic

Bitcoin didn’t just move sideways in March—it moved up the geopolitical ladder. It became more than a hedge or investment. It became strategic.

March: Bitcoin Gets the Government Stamp

The month began with low expectations. After February’s drag, few were predicting anything major. But then came Washington.

Just two days into March, Bitcoin made history—posting its first-ever $10,000 daily candle. The surge followed a pair of posts by President Donald Trump on Truth Social, where he publicly acknowledged Bitcoin, along with Ethereum, Ripple, Solana, and Cardano, as part of a proposed Strategic Crypto Reserve. For many in the Bitcoin space, it was surreal: the US president naming digital assets as strategic considerations on a public stage.

Social media erupted, and the price responded. But this wasn’t just another rally. It marked the first time Bitcoin had moved not because of market cycles or ETF news—but because of political messaging. The asset was now firmly entangled in policy.

And that was only the beginning.

A couple days later, Trump signed an executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR)—making Bitcoin an official reserve asset held by the United States. The reserve would be built using 200,000 BTC already in government possession, mostly from seizures and forfeitures, with a formal commitment to retain, not sell.

This move didn’t come with a flashy buying program or massive market intervention. But it came with something more important: recognition. The world’s most powerful economy had just placed Bitcoin alongside oil, gold, and foreign currencies in its strategic framework.

For years, Bitcoin had been the outsider. Suddenly, it was sitting at the table.

April: The Month Tariffs Go Live

While March was about policy, April brings pressure. On 2 April, reciprocal tariffs between the US and potentially 25 other countries are set to go live—marking the official start of what many are calling the next global trade war.

For markets, this isn’t just about trade—it’s about what follows. Tariffs raise costs, strain supply chains, and often feed inflation. And in an already fragile global economy, this could be the spark that reignites a broader volatility cycle.

Bitcoin now sits in the middle of that conversation. Will it behave like a risk asset and falter under global pressure? Or will it rise as a hedge, a tool for sovereign resilience, just as the SBR narrative suggests?

April will begin to answer those questions.

Breaking down the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve:

The details of the SBR matter—and they tell a story of gradual but meaningful integration.

200,000 BTC now held as a reserve asset
Valued at roughly $17.6B, these coins will not be sold
No new market purchases are authorised (yet), but future expansion is on the table
Other seized cryptocurrencies—like ETH and XRP—are being held in a separate stockpile

This isn't a speculative play. It's a signal: that Bitcoin has utility beyond investment. It's now being treated like energy reserves, precious metals, and other national stores of value.

And while this move doesn’t change Bitcoin’s fundamentals, it changes the context in which those fundamentals exist. It elevates the asset’s standing—especially as nations start to weigh their own positions on digital sovereignty and reserve diversification.

What Happens Next?

The SBR doesn't immediately move markets. But it reshapes the long-term game. If the US is willing to hold Bitcoin as a matter of strategy, how long until others follow?

Meanwhile, the tariffs going live in April create a fresh wave of uncertainty. Global growth expectations are being revised down. Inflation risks are back in the headlines. And monetary policy—once expected to ease—may have to stay tight for longer.

That’s where Bitcoin re-enters the conversation. Not for its price today, but for what it represents in a world where traditional levers—money printing, debt, central bank intervention—are under more scrutiny than ever.

In the News:

Transitory tariffs – Powell:

Earlier this month, markets eagerly awaited Jerome Powell’s press conference following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates. Not because of the rate itself, but to hear his views on Trump’s tariffs that had been shaking the markets. Powell was surprisingly dovish in tone and labelled Trump’s tariffs as ‘transitory’ and unlikely to impact inflation in the long run. This suggests the main source of uncertainty may not last long—so this period should be seen as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin and other assets.

Australian Federal Budget

The annual budget report has been released, and a major threat to superannuation is being proposed: a potential tax on unrealised gains on assets held within superannuation for those with balances over $3 million. Whilst Bitcoin in SMSFs isn’t immune to these changes, the continuous government interventions in what was introduced as a stable, long-term vehicle highlight the importance of becoming self-sovereign—and Bitcoin is the doorway to doing so.

War Updates: Russia vs Ukraine, Middle East Conflict

March 2025 escalated tensions as Russia’s deadly strikes in Ukraine intensified, ceasefire talks with Trump stalled, and Ukrainian President Zelensky faced a dramatic exit from the White House mid-month, signaling U.S. frustration with Kyiv’s demands, whilst no progress has been made in the Middle East. Global markets shuddered, with oil leaping $3-$5 per barrel, lifting energy and defense stocks, yet the S&P 500 plunged 6.3% for the month. Gold surged 8%, soaring as the safe haven bid intensified amid geopolitical chaos and inflationary pressures.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in March 2025:

Bitcoin falls 3.33% in March
Ethereum falls 20% to below $2,000 for the first time since November 2023
Tron returns to the top 10, displacing STETH after Ethereum’s poor month
World Liberty Financial set to launch its own USD stablecoin ‘USD1’
Total crypto market cap loses 3.11%, down to $2.66T

Video of the month:

' Is Bitcoin flourishing or crashing under Trump? ~ A Chat with Bisher from Stormrake'

Education: Why Bitcoin is a Hedge Against Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Imagine a world where your savings lose value not because you spent them—but because someone else decided to tweak the system. Whether it’s money printing, reckless government spending, or political chaos, the value of your money is often at the mercy of decisions you didn’t make.

That’s the problem Bitcoin was built to solve.

Now, in an era of trade wars, ballooning deficits, and inflation risk, Bitcoin is gaining new attention—not just as an investment, but as a hedge. A digital shield against bad policy.

Let’s break it down.

Why Was Bitcoin Created in the First Place?

Bitcoin launched in 2009 during the fallout of the global financial crisis. Banks were failing, governments were bailing them out, and people were losing trust in the system.

The very first line of Bitcoin’s whitepaper sets the tone:

“A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”

Bitcoin was designed to cut out the middlemen—banks, central banks, governments. It’s decentralised, meaning no single entity controls it. Instead, it’s run by code and secured by a global network of users.

It’s like a digital piggy bank that only you can access, with no one able to change the rules after the fact.

Free from Government Control

Bitcoin operates outside of traditional financial systems. No central bank or government can change its code or manipulate its supply.

That makes it powerful. In a world where most currencies are controlled by central authorities, Bitcoin stands alone as a self sovereign form of money—neutral, borderless, and censorship-resistant.

It gives individuals the ability to opt out of local monetary regimes and hold wealth in a digital asset that can’t be inflated away or politically weaponised.

Sovereign: Escaping Monetary Expansion

When governments want to stimulate the economy or fund massive spending, they often “print money”—increasing the supply of fiat currency. That dilutes the value of every dollar in circulation.

Bitcoin doesn’t play that game.

Only 21 million BTC will ever exist. That number is hard-coded and cannot be changed. No central bank, no emergency meeting, no stimulus bill can alter that.

So when money printing ramps up—like it could in response to the 2025 US–global tariff battle—Bitcoin becomes attractive as a scarce digital asset: a financial lifeboat in a sea of endless liquidity.

Protection from Currency Devaluation

When a nation’s currency drops in value—because of inflation, trade wars, or political instability—citizens often lose purchasing power, especially on imports or travel. That’s currency devaluation.

Bitcoin isn’t tied to any one country or central bank. It exists globally, and its value is determined by open markets—not national policy.

In places like Venezuela or Turkey, people turned to Bitcoin as their local currencies collapsed. In 2025, similar concerns are bubbling again in places like Argentina, and even in developed markets facing inflation shocks.

Bitcoin offers a way to opt out.

Hedge Against Political Risk and Fiscal Mismanagement

Bad policy isn’t just theoretical—it hits wallets. Whether it’s rising national debt, aggressive taxation, or government overreach, there’s always the risk that political decisions will erode the value of your savings.

Bitcoin is a hedge against all forms of government overreach.

From war in Eastern Europe to Australia’s super tax changes, we’re seeing more people diversify into Bitcoin as a way to insulate themselves from poor fiscal decisions. It’s portable, self-custodied, and completely detached from political agendas.

In a world where trust in governments is declining, Bitcoin becomes more than just a hedge—it’s a plan B.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin started as a rebel idea to ditch banks and give power back to people. Free from government control, immune to money printing, and resilient to political missteps—it’s a hedge when the system starts to crack.It’s not perfect (prices can swing wildly), but for those worried about monetary and fiscal chaos, Bitcoin’s a simple, bold answer: control your own cash, no strings attached.

Memes of the Month

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

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The Rake Review: February

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 19:30:37 +1100

Trade Wars Dominate the Month

February was the month that finally broke the multi month long consolidation period. We had seen Bitcoin establish a broad range between $90k-$110k since December. January was able to weather the storm of some wild catalysts that would usually break it out of the range, but February was not able to sustain its events…

February: The Month That Finally Broke the Trend

Opening the month at $102K, fresh off all-time highs set in January, February was filled with volatility. Trade Wars kicked things off—Trump’s 25% tariffs on major trade partners sent ripples across all markets, both traditional and crypto, pulling Bitcoin below $100K. After an initial pause in tariffs provided some respite, a fresh round of reciprocal tariffs was announced. By the time the third tariff wave hit, markets appeared to build some form of immunity, as the impact on volatility gradually faded.

Following this, Bitcoin established an even tighter range of $95.7K–$100K, holding for 18 days without a daily close outside this zone. While ETF flows stagnated and Bitcoin’s buying interest hit multi-month lows, several key events unfolded.

The Death of the Memecoin Casino

Binance entered the memecoin game, launching its own ecosystem on the BNB blockchain. This triggered a massive influx of funds bridged over from Solana to BSC, in anticipation of a fresh wave of meme speculation. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) then posted a picture of his dog, ‘Broccoli,’ which immediately spawned an army of Broccoli-themed meme coins, dominating the space.

The memecoin casino seemed like it was running out of steam—until the final nail in the coffin arrived: LIBRA, one of the largest rug pulls in crypto history.

Argentinian President Javier Milei endorsed a memecoin, claiming proceeds would support small businesses in Argentina.
The token hit a $4.6 billion market cap before insiders dumped $100M, leading to a mass capitulation.
Within hours, LIBRA lost $4.4 billion, becoming one of the fastest collapses in memecoin history.

The fallout was devastating—not just for Milei, with impeachment calls growing, but for the Solana ecosystem, which had thrived on meme speculation. As investors fled, SOL crashed 40% in February, just a month after hitting an all-time high in January.

Key Events in Between

CPI data – Higher-than-expected inflation confirmed economic worries and led to heightened volatility
FTX Repayments – Long-awaited refunds disappointed many due to controversial valuation methods.
Bybit Hack ($1.4B Stolen) – The biggest crypto hack in history, linked to North Korean group Lazarus. Yet, Bitcoin held its range, thanks to Bybit’s damage control.

Bitcoin was seemingly set to close another month within its range—until Trade Wars reignited.

The Breakdown: Trade Wars Escalate

Trump doubled down, confirming paused tariffs would proceed, breaking Bitcoin’s range. BTC fell below $90K for the first time since November. The market barely had time to digest the news before Trump announced another set of tariffs, this time on Europe.

European tariffs (25%) matched those on Canada & Mexico.
Bitcoin plunged to $79K—a three-month low.

Now, the long-term structure is under threat. Will March bring a recovery, or will the tariffs break Bitcoin’s structure entirely?

Is It Over?

Going into March, sentiment is at multi-year lows. Bitcoin is down almost 30% from its all-time high set in January, altcoins are struggling to find a bid, and tariffs are going live. Is it over?

Turn your attention to the chart below. Comparing this bull run to the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin rallied to $64K, consolidated, and then retraced almost 50% in two weeks. Many believed the cycle was over, and capitulated. Just eight weeks later, Bitcoin took off from its base at the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 55EMA, setting new all-time highs and triggering one of the most memorable altseasons.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/KMoF1gzS/

This cycle, we just went through a 13-week consolidation before starting this 30% retracement. Bitcoin is now approaching the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 55EMA around $73K–$75K. This level is further reinforced by last cycle’s all-time high, which acted as strong resistance throughout the eight-month consolidation period in 2023. Now flipped into support, this level becomes a high-probability bounce zone.

If Bitcoin is indeed following the 2021 blueprint, we should anticipate a bounce off $73K–$75K, setting up a move to new all-time highs later in the year. Rather than panicking and selling at a key technical level, if these levels are hit, they should be met with buying, as they represent golden opportunities.

2025’s Freaky Fridays:

This can’t be the start to the year that anyone envisioned, especially with Trump taking office. But Fridays have become a pattern, repeatedly marking major events that shift the market.

A major event has occurred on five of the last seven Fridays, starting just days before Trump was sworn into office for the second time. Below is the timeline of these Freaky Fridays:

Friday 17th Jan – $TRUMP token launch (igniting the memecoin casino).
Friday 24th Jan – DeepSeek AI crash.
Friday 31st Jan – Trump announces first tariffs (Trade War begins).
Friday 14th Feb – LIBRA rug pull, one of the largest in history.
Friday 21st Feb – Bybit hacked for $1.4 billion, the largest hack in crypto history.
Friday 28th Feb – Bitcoin falls below $80K for the first time since November.

Each event has had a bearish impact on the market. The question now is—will March bring more Freaky Fridays?

In the News:

Solana Unlock:

In the coming days, a massive Solana unlock will take place, with 11.2 million SOL (2.24% of total supply) being distributed to the Solana Foundation, presale participants, and more. Valued at $1.58 billion, this event is adding pressure to Solana, which is already struggling following the collapse of the memecoin casino.

The sell-off in anticipation of the unlock has already been playing out, but the question remains—how will recipients react? If the majority of unlocked tokens are held, Solana could see a price rebound. However, if recipients sell their tokens, further downside is inevitable.

Sonic: What Has Caused the Revival?

Sonic (formerly Fantom) has bucked the market trend, trading positive for the month, up 12%. During February, Sonic hit a low of $0.31 before climbing to $0.99 in just two weeks.

This price appreciation is largely attributed to two key factors. First, the SEC dropped its appeal against a ruling that prevented it from regulating DeFi, securing DeFi’s independence from SEC oversight. This is a massive win for Sonic, which has built itself as the home of DeFi.

Secondly, Sonic’s on-chain performance has been outstanding over the past two months. It has outperformed nearly every major blockchain across key metrics, attracting developers and users looking for an alternative to Solana. With the Solana Casino closing, these developers need a new home, and Sonic is proving to be that home.

Source: https://app.debridge.finance/

Ukraine vs Russia: Is the War Coming to an End?

President Trump has suggested that, if handled well, the Russia-Ukraine war could end in weeks. The key? A US-Ukraine minerals deal, which would tap into Ukraine’s vast lithium and rare earth resources. This agreement could provide Ukraine with economic leverage while also giving the US a strategic advantage.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in February 2025:

Bitcoin ends February down 22.6%.
Ethereum drops 36% in February, struggling to hold above $2,000 USD
BNB flips SOL as the Memecoin Casino collapses.
XRP falls to fourth place in crypto market cap rankings.
Total crypto market cap drops 25% to $2.57 trillion.

Video of the month:

'Will Trump's Tariffs Tank the Crypto Markets?'

Stormrake x BTR x Liberty Bullion Australia Tour:

After the success of the first BTR Roadshow, we’re excited to announce that we’re heading back on tour with BeatTheReset and Liberty Bullion for the ‘Back to the Future Tour’! The second instalment of your favourite trio is coming to a major Australian city near you. Running from March 15–23, secure your tickets today to ensure you don’t miss out!

Get Your Tickets HERE

Education: Understanding Market Sentiment

The past month has been a true test of market sentiment, particularly for those new to crypto and experiencing their first bull market. Sentiment plays a critical role in market cycles, influencing both price action and investor behaviour. There are several key metrics used to gauge the market’s current emotional state and what stage of the cycle we’re in. Understanding these indicators can be extremely valuable in making informed decisions.

The three main metrics we’ll cover are:

Fear and Greed Index
Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin Popularity

Fear and Greed Index:

As the name suggests, the Fear and Greed Index measures the collective sentiment of market participants. Warren Buffett’s famous advice—"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"—perfectly applies here.

The index has five stages: Extreme Fear, Fear, Neutral, Greed, and Extreme Greed. When prices are falling and sentiment is bearish, the market typically enters Fear or Extreme Fear territory, which often signals buying opportunities.

Currently, the index sits at 10, the lowest reading since May 2022, when the Luna collapse sent Bitcoin below $20K. Historically, extreme fear readings have correlated with market bottoms, whereas extreme greed readings tend to occur near cycle tops.

For example, on January 22nd, shortly after Bitcoin hit its most recent all-time high at $106K, the Fear & Greed Index registered a reading of 84, indicating extreme greed. While markets can remain in extreme readings for extended periods, these moments help traders identify potential reversals.

The best strategy? Accumulating during extreme fear has historically yielded the greatest returns, while periods of extreme greed may signal a time to start reducing exposure.

Bitcoin Dominance:

Bitcoin dominance refers to the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap that is made up of Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin dominance is at 60%, meaning Bitcoin accounts for 60% of the total crypto market’s value.

When Bitcoin dominance is high, it indicates that investors are favouring Bitcoin over altcoins. This can happen for two main reasons:

In early bull market stages, Bitcoin typically outperforms altcoins following halving events.
During market uncertainty, investors move away from altcoins and into Bitcoin, seeking its safety in the crypto space.

On the other hand, when Bitcoin dominance is low (typically below 45%), it suggests the market is in a risk-on phase, where speculation runs high, and altcoins gain more traction. This often marks the beginning of an altseason, where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Popularity:

This may seem like an unusual metric, but it’s one of the most powerful sentiment indicators. Bitcoin popularity can be measured by:

Media coverage – Is Bitcoin in the headlines every day?
Social conversations – Are your friends, family, and even distant relatives talking about Bitcoin?
Google search trends – Are Bitcoin and crypto-related searches increasing?
X (Twitter) engagement – Are posts about Bitcoin euphoric or pessimistic?

In bear markets, Bitcoin is rarely discussed in mainstream media. Pundits call it "dead", skeptics claim the Ponzi is over, and crypto Twitter turns into a ghost town. At family dinners, you might even hear friends or relatives mocking crypto investments.

However, during bull markets, the opposite happens. Bitcoin dominates financial news, traditional finance figures suddenly turn bullish, and everyone—from taxi drivers to distant cousins—has a price prediction. Crypto Twitter becomes euphoric, with people posting wild all-time high forecasts.

At Stormrake, we use these three key metrics—Fear and Greed, Bitcoin Dominance, and Bitcoin Popularity—to gauge market sentiment and conditions. Understanding these indicators can help traders and investors navigate market cycles effectively and position themselves for the best risk-reward opportunities.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: January

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 17:31:20 +1100

January Sets the Stage for a Bullish 2025

An event-packed January comes to an end, and Bitcoin is set to close positive once more, up 11%. This month saw Bitcoin trade back under $90K for the first time since mid-November, new all-time highs, and price catalyst events that seemed to emerge every few days. From bearish events such as the US DOJ's clearance to sell seized assets, the lack of any mention of crypto in Trump’s inauguration speech, and DeepSeek AI posing a threat to US AI stocks, to bullish catalysts like a dovish tone from Powell and a pro-crypto executive order, the market experienced a constant push and pull.

From Doubt to Dominance

In the early days of Bitcoin, many traditional financial leaders and government officials viewed it with scepticism and even hostility. For instance, in 2019, former President Donald Trump stated, "I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air." Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink had once dismissed Bitcoin as an "index of money laundering." The mainstream narrative painted Bitcoin as a tool for criminals, a speculative bubble, or, at best, a niche asset for tech enthusiasts.

Yet, Bitcoin persisted. During 80% drawdowns, it faced relentless criticism: media headlines called it a scam, governments threatened regulation, and financial institutions openly mocked its supporters. Over the last five years, Bitcoin experienced immense volatility—falling below $4,000 in 2020, then $10,000, $20,000, $30,000, and $40,000, eventually creating new highs. Each price collapse was met with critics celebrating Bitcoin's 'downfall', yet every drawdown offered a historic opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin.

The individuals who bought during these crashes—who held extreme conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term vision—understood that mainstream adoption was inevitable. They weren’t swayed by FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt); instead, they recognised Bitcoin’s value proposition and its potential to be integrated into the global financial system.

Fast forward to January 2024, and the landscape had dramatically shifted. Bitcoin was trading around $40,000, and the launch of the first Bitcoin ETFs marked a historic moment where traditional finance finally embraced digital assets. BlackRock, once sceptical, now led the charge with its Bitcoin ETF, alongside other Wall Street giants.

By January 2025, Bitcoin’s ascent continued, surpassing $100,000 and proving that those who bet against it had once again been wrong. This time, the adoption wave wasn’t limited to asset managers—the U.S. government itself had stepped in. In a groundbreaking move, President Trump signed an executive order supporting Bitcoin and pro-crypto policies, marking the first official embrace of Bitcoin at the highest level of government. The man who once dismissed Bitcoin as "thin air" was now positioning himself as "The Crypto President." Over the past year, he has repeatedly praised Bitcoin and crypto, emphasising the importance of "financial freedom" and a "pro-Bitcoin stance" for America's economic future.

This transformation—from rejection to adoption—has solidified Bitcoin's role as a legitimate global asset. The past two Januaries have validated everything Bitcoin believers had envisioned: first, institutional adoption through ETFs, and now, the governmental embrace of Bitcoin as an economic force. Those who doubted Bitcoin during the bear markets, waiting for it to "go to zero," have been proven wrong time and time again.

As we stand in January 2025, Bitcoin’s journey is far from over. If history has taught us anything, it’s that Bitcoin doesn’t just survive—it thrives. And those who understand its long-term trajectory will continue to benefit from the opportunities it presents.

A Busy Yet Consolidative January

Source:: https://www.tradingview.com/x/YOnYYGEJ/

January 2025 seemed relatively slow in terms of price action, with Bitcoin hovering around $100,000 despite its intra-month highs and lows. However, this apparent calm belied a storm of events shaping the crypto market.

From Bitcoin’s 16th birthday to U.S. government drama, inflation data, and Chinese AI developments, the month was anything but quiet. Bitcoin started January strong, with seven consecutive days of bullish price action before bearish news hit the markets.

Just over a week before President Trump’s inauguration, the U.S. Department of Justice announced plans to sell 69,000 Bitcoin it had seized. This move shocked many, particularly as Trump had previously vowed not to sell seized Bitcoin during his presidency. The timing, just days before his inauguration, felt deliberate.

This bearish revelation, combined with disappointing employment data, pushed Bitcoin lower. However, the release of bullish CPI data for risk-on assets saw Bitcoin rally back above $100,000. Days before Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin remained steady, but the inauguration speech itself brought the anticipated volatility. After dropping briefly below $100,000 due to no mention of Bitcoin in the speech, it quickly rallied to new all-time highs near $110,000.

The post-inauguration week was packed with crypto-related government developments, including:

The resignation of Gary Gensler.
The creation of a Crypto Task Force within the SEC.
A pro-crypto executive order to establish a national digital asset stockpile.

Bitcoin consolidated between $100,000 and $109,900 until another significant event disrupted the markets: the launch of DeepSeek AI, a Chinese-developed open-source AI protocol seen as a competitor to ChatGPT. The announcement sent ripples through global markets, especially tech-heavy sectors. The NASDAQ opened 1.2% lower due to the dominance of AI-related stocks, with NVIDIA recording a $600 billion single-day market cap wipeout—the largest in history.

Crypto wasn’t immune to this shock, with Bitcoin briefly falling 5% to dip below $100,000. However, Bitcoin and altcoins rebounded strongly. Bitcoin reclaimed $104,000, while projects like Sui, Ripple, and Ondo recovered their losses and rallied to new highs.

The final event of the month was the heavily anticipated FOMC interest rate decision. Although a rate cut was deemed highly unlikely, the market still reacted negatively to the announcement of no cut. However, a dovish tone from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided relief, sending Bitcoin from $101,000 to $105,000.

Looking ahead, February has historically been one of Bitcoin’s most bullish months, with an average return of 16.6%. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could end February at approximately $122,500. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results.

In the News:

Stormrake Client Portal:

We are thrilled to announce the Stormrake Client Portal. Here’s what’s waiting for you:

A secure, intuitive way to view your crypto assets.
Real-time insights into your portfolio.
A foundation for even greater features coming soon.

In the coming days, Stormrake clients will receive an email inviting them to the new Stormrake Client Portal.

Czech Republic BTC Accumulation:

Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has proposed allocating 5% of the 140 million euros within the central bank’s reserves to Bitcoin, which could make the CNB the first Western central bank to officially buy and hold Bitcoin.

Ross Ulbricht Pardoned:

During his campaign, President Trump pledged to pardon Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, a move widely supported by the crypto community. On his first day in office, he delivered on that promise, securing Ulbricht’s release.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in January 2025:

Bitcoin ends January up 11%.
XRP becomes the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Solana drops to 5th place.
DOGE flips USDC to take 7th place.
TRUMP token storms into the top 35 within 48 hours of launch.

Video of the month

The Pro-Crypto Executive Order Explained

Education: Bitcoin’s Rising Dominance: The Great Coin Dilution Effect

Over the past few years, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed an explosion of new tokens. Thousands of projects launch daily, and millions of new coins enter circulation. Despite this relentless expansion, Bitcoin’s price has not only increased but dominance has strengthened.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Bitcoin dominance (BTC’s share of the total crypto market value) has risen from 40% to 59% in three years.
Ethereum (ETH), once holding 18% of total market capitalisation, has slipped to 10%.
All other coins combined have fallen from 42% to 30%.

The Rise of Disposable Coins

98% of memecoins fail to survive longer than three months.
10,417 tokens are launched daily, yet 9,912 become defunct.
The average lifespan of a memecoin is just 12 days.
15% of memecoins die within one day of launch.

Source: https://chainplay.gg/blog/lifespan-pump-fun-memecoins-analysis/

This rapid churn dilutes the altcoin market, siphons investor capital into speculative plays, and undermines long-term confidence in the sector.

Altcoin Dilution: The Flood vs. the Foundation

While Bitcoin operates on a strict fixed supply of 21 million, the altcoin market is inundated with tokens, many of which are inflationary or poorly structured. This has two major effects:

Capital Dilution – With every new token, available liquidity fragments further, reducing the ability of altcoins to sustain long-term value.
Market Confidence Erosion – As most altcoins fail, capital rotates into Bitcoin, reinforcing its position as a safe haven.

Decoupling of Bitcoin and Altcoin Market Caps

Historically, Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market have moved in tandem. During bull markets, altcoins often outperformed Bitcoin, acting as leverage on BTC’s price action. Conversely, during bear markets, altcoins experienced sharper declines, with their lack of liquidity amplifying losses

However, the chart above points to a clear decoupling trend.

Bitcoin is increasingly diverging from the broader crypto market. Historically, speculative "alt seasons" drove temporary outperformance by altcoins, but this dynamic appears to be fading. As the latest market trends indicate, Bitcoin is beginning to leave the rest of the crypto market behind.

Key Observations:

Bitcoin’s Rising Market Cap

Since 2022, Bitcoin’s market cap has consistently trended upwards, reflecting growing demand from institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, and individuals seeking a secure, scarce digital asset.
Altcoin Market Cap Stagnation

In contrast, altcoins have struggled with choppy price action, as continuous dilution from speculative token launches undermines growth and fragments liquidity.
The End of "Alt Seasons"

The previous trend of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin during speculative phases is fading, reinforcing Bitcoin’s dominance and decoupling from the broader market.

What This Means

This decoupling reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment. Bitcoin’s scarcity, unrivalled security, and growing institutional adoption make it increasingly differentiated. Meanwhile, the altcoin market struggles with rampant speculation, daily dilution, and high failure rates.

The Takeaway: Buy and Hold Bitcoin

Despite millions of new tokens flooding the market, Bitcoin’s dominance is rising—a testament to its resilience and appeal. In a world awash with disposable tokens, Bitcoin’s stability and scarcity make it the clear standout

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.