Stormrake - Insights #Bitcoin ShortStormrake - Insights #Bitcoin Shorthttps://www.stormrake.com/blogs/tag/bitcoin-shortWed, 15 Apr 2026 14:23:30 +1000http://zoho.com/sites/<![CDATA[SEC’s Crypto Task Force Holds First Roundtable with Industry Leaders]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/SEC-s-Crypto-Task-Force-Holds-First-Roundtable-with-Industry-Leaders
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One of Trump’s key election promises to appeal to crypto investors was to make the SEC more crypto-friendly and fire Gary Gensler—and these promises have been kept. Since stepping back into the Oval Office, Gensler has gone, a crypto-friendly chair has been appointed, and a new crypto task force has been created inside the SEC.

Overnight, the first roundtable was held by that task force, marking a major shift in tone. For the first time ever, the SEC sat down with people from the crypto industry to talk—not fight. No lawsuits, no threats—just an open conversation about how digital assets should be regulated. This is a big deal after years of heavy-handed enforcement under the previous administration.

The main debate focused on a long-standing issue: what actually counts as a security in crypto? Everyone agreed that Bitcoin isn’t one, as it’s fully decentralised. But when it comes to other tokens, the lines remain blurry. Some, like a16z’s Miles Jennings, argued that crypto needs its own set of rules, calling for a “technology-neutral” approach that recognises how different this space is from traditional stocks. Not everyone was on board, though. John Reed Stark, a former SEC enforcement official and long-time crypto critic, slammed the idea of changing the rules. He said the current securities laws from the 1930s work just fine and accused crypto companies of trying to delay and dodge regulation—arguing that “investors aren’t collectors,” and that the SEC’s job is to protect them.

Behind the scenes, political momentum is shifting too. Several lawsuits filed under the Biden administration are now being paused or dropped, and just the other week, Trump signed an executive order to build a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. While there’s still a long road ahead, this first meeting showed that the SEC is finally open to working with the crypto industry instead of treating it like the enemy.

Despite the headlines, the market hasn’t reacted much. Bitcoin remains stuck in its consolidation range after a bit of a nothing day, falling just 0.14% over the last 24 hours.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.39)

XRP fell another 2.29% over the last 24 hours, sending it back under the 55EMA and into the lower half of its range. That said, it’s not a bearish picture yet. After forming a bullish structure recently, XRP now needs to create a higher low above $2.22 to maintain that outlook. If that level is breached, we could see a retest of the broader range lows. Still, XRP sitting in the bottom half of the range presents attractive levels for accumulation or dollar-cost averaging. If price drops further, don’t panic—this could be an opportunity in disguise.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

A very slow day for Bitcoin, closing just 0.14% lower than its open. BTC remains stuck in the broader range and is struggling to reclaim the monthly open, which is currently acting as resistance. That level also lines up with the 21EMA and 55EMA, both of which are weighing on price. The posture remains bearish for now. If BTC fails to reclaim the monthly open, we could see it fall below all major moving averages and drift lower within the range. A clean break above, however, could trigger another test of the range highs near $85.2k.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 21 Mar: $ - 21.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Sat, 22 Mar 2025 13:03:39 +1100<![CDATA[Bitcoin Bull Trap? Powell’s Dovishness Fades as Bears Strike Back]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/bitcoin-bull-trap-powell-s-dovishness-fades-as-bears-strike-backBitcoin’s rally following Powell’s dovish stance has been cut short, as bears push it back into consolidation.]]>
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Following Powell’s presser yesterday morning, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market enjoyed healthy gains, seemingly turning a corner. The dovish tone from Powell appeared to be the break Bitcoin needed to flip bullish, with BTC surging back above $87K and finally breaking out of its consolidation range. Many altcoins followed suit, rallying over 10%.

However, the move turned out to be a bull trap. Bears swiftly regained control, sending Bitcoin back into its previous range, now trading around $84K once again.

Adding to the market’s volatility, Trump spoke last night at the Digital Asset Summit, sparking speculation that he might announce zero capital gains tax on certain cryptocurrencies or offer a favourable stance on a US Bitcoin reserve. Investors were left disappointed as neither materialised, leading to further market declines.

Now back within the consolidation range it spent over 10 days attempting to break, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is fading. The latest lower high on the daily timeframe further strengthens the bearish case. With no major macro or crypto catalysts left this month, we can expect the market to play out naturally—assuming no surprise tariff changes or ceasefire announcements shift sentiment. Given the current bearish structure, risk-off behaviour could push Bitcoin back below $80K…

In other news, the first Solana ETF has launched in the United States, providing institutional investors with exposure to SOL. However, the launch has had little impact on SOL’s price, which has followed broader market trends and is currently down 6% on the day.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.43)

XRP is currently pulling back after an almost 12% gain the previous day and is now down 4.4%. It is testing both the middle of its broader consolidation range and the 55 EMA. If XRP can hold these support levels, the bullish structure remains intact, and momentum could push it back to retest the top of the range in the coming weeks. However, if it fails to hold and drops below the middle of the range, it risks invalidating the newly formed bullish structure, potentially leading to a move back towards the bottom of the range instead.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has fallen back into its range and now risks flipping short-term momentum back to the bears. To maintain its bullish structure, BTC must form a higher low above $83.6K—if it breaks below this level, the structure is lost, and momentum will likely follow. Failure to reclaim $85.2K resistance would confirm that bullish momentum is fading, increasing the likelihood of a move back to the bottom of the range.


BTC Total ETF Flows for 20 Mar: $ - 27.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Fri, 21 Mar 2025 11:57:46 +1100<![CDATA[Bitcoin Breaks Out as Powell Turns Dovish]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Bitcoin-Breaks-Out-as-Powell-Turns-DovishRisk assets climb after Powell’s unexpectedly dovish remarks.]]>
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Bitcoin has finally broken out of its 10-day consolidation range following Jerome Powell’s press conference this morning. As expected, there was no rate cut, and market reaction hinged entirely on Powell—who did deliver. Bitcoin is up 5% on the day, with altcoins rising even more.

Powell’s tone surprised most investors when he used the term "transitory" to describe inflation and suggested that the Trump tariffs are unlikely to have a long-term impact. The Fed is in a good position to "wait for greater clarity" on the Trump agenda before adjusting policy. The expectation among FOMC members is that interest rates will end the year between 3.9% - 4.4%, up from 3.6% - 4.1% in December. This implies only one rate cut, but both Powell and the market have pencilled in two by year-end.

While tariffs have been a key source of uncertainty and bearish sentiment across markets, the Fed does not expect them to last—viewing them as temporary. This is an extremely bullish signal for markets in the long term. When paired with M2 global money supply expanding once again, it sets the stage for sustained growth in risk-on assets.

Bitcoin is currently trading above $87K, eyeing a reclaim of $90K—a highly bullish outcome after weeks of negative sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index now sits at 49, a massive recovery from the multi-year low of 10 just a month ago. A key takeaway: sentiment has rebounded dramatically, yet Bitcoin remains at a similar price level to when extreme fear dominated.

At the recent lows, many were calling for Bitcoin to break further into the $70K region, with some even predicting a return to the $60Ks. But as it so often does, Bitcoin has defied expectations. Have we seen the bottom? Not yet—we're not out of the woods, but we're making strong progress.
The market has priced in a 100% chance that there will be no rate change tomorrow, so we shouldn’t expect volatility from the rate decision itself. However, 30 minutes later (at 5:30am AEST), when Jerome Powell takes the stage to answer questions and provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance, we can expect the volatility to kick in, and the market direction could be determined. We expect Powell to signal that the Fed will remain patient, avoiding any rush to make rate decisions due to the ongoing uncertainty and volatility stemming from Trump’s tariff policies. The tone of his speech will be key—if Powell adopts a hawkish tone, risk-on assets could continue to pullback, whereas a dovish tone could lead to a rally in risk-on assets. Powell’s remarks might finally break Bitcoin out of the week-long consolidation range it’s been stuck in.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.53)

XRP has had a massive 24 hours. First, the SEC lawsuit against XRP was dropped. Then, Bitnomial launched its XRP futures contract, marking the first-ever CFTC-regulated XRP futures product in the U.S. And finally, Powell’s dovish stance provided a tailwind for the entire market.

As highlighted in yesterday’s note, XRP needed to break above $2.47 to regain a bullish structure—and it has done exactly that. It has now flipped market structure bullish, reclaimed all major moving averages, and returned to the upper half of its broader consolidation range. With this momentum, a $3 retest is likely in the coming weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has broken through the key resistance level of $85.2K, confirming bullish momentum. If BTC sustains this rally, we should see a $90K retest soon. If not, $85.2K must hold as support to maintain the bullish structure.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 19 Mar: $ + 22.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Thu, 20 Mar 2025 12:06:13 +1100<![CDATA[As US Interest Rate Decision Approaches, Investors Shift to Risk-Off]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/as-us-interest-rate-decision-approaches-investors-shift-to-risk-off
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With the upcoming FOMC event tomorrow and the unpredictable Jerome Powell press conference that follows, investors are taking a cautious approach. The last 24 hours have reflected this risk-off sentiment, with the S&P 500 down 1.07%, the Nasdaq down 1.7%, the DXY (US Dollar Index) down 0.16%, and Bitcoin down 1.52%. It’s clear where the money is flowing: into the widely regarded ‘safe haven’ asset, gold. Gold continues to make new all-time highs, climbing another 1.1% yesterday, marking seven consecutive days of bullish closes.

We’ve been following the massive short position that has had the entire crypto market on edge. After growing to over half a billion dollars, the $520m position was closed yesterday evening, resulting in the trader pocketing a $1.1 million profit after funding fees. This closure underscores the uncertainty and risk-off environment we're currently in, leading up to Powell’s press conference tomorrow.
The market has priced in a 100% chance that there will be no rate change tomorrow, so we shouldn’t expect volatility from the rate decision itself. However, 30 minutes later (at 5:30am AEST), when Jerome Powell takes the stage to answer questions and provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance, we can expect the volatility to kick in, and the market direction could be determined. We expect Powell to signal that the Fed will remain patient, avoiding any rush to make rate decisions due to the ongoing uncertainty and volatility stemming from Trump’s tariff policies. The tone of his speech will be key—if Powell adopts a hawkish tone, risk-on assets could continue to pullback, whereas a dovish tone could lead to a rally in risk-on assets. Powell’s remarks might finally break Bitcoin out of the week-long consolidation range it’s been stuck in.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.29)

XRP remains in a similar position to yesterday, still trading between the CPR levels and just below the 21 EMA. It saw a slight pullback of 2.26% yesterday, following the broader market. For XRP to break its bearish structure, it needs to form a higher low above $1.89 and then create a new higher high above $2.47. Until that happens, the market remains bearish. However, at current levels, XRP presents an excellent dollar-cost averaging or buying opportunity for those with a long-term bullish outlook.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

The recent move back to the bottom of the range has shifted the structure from neutral to bearish. However, bulls have continued to provide buying support at $81.6k, the lower end of the range. BTC has since bounced and reclaimed three of its four moving averages. If this rally can be sustained, the momentum may shift back to the bulls.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 18 Mar: $ - 9.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Wed, 19 Mar 2025 13:33:45 +1100<![CDATA[The Bear’s Bet Grows to $520M]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/the-bear-s-bet-grows-to-520m
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A quiet start to the week, with no notable events shaking up the crypto markets—a welcome change considering the chaos of the last few months. Bitcoin is up 1.8% over the last 24 hours, with the rest of the market showing some green too. But what’s happening with the bear in the short position?

Yesterday’s morning note showed the bear’s position worth $460 million, sitting on nearly $6 million in unrealised gains. Today, the bear hunters are closing in. Not only has the bear increased the position size to $520 million, but it’s no longer in any unrealised profits. Instead, the bear is now down $122,623.13 in unrealised losses, with an average entry of $83,898. The liquidation level remains at $85,564—less than 2% away. Meanwhile, the funding costs for this position continue to mount and are nearing $500k. The longer this position stays open, the larger those costs will grow.

Bitcoin is still trading within the $81.6k–$85.2k range. It’s now been over a week since we first fell into this zone, with no successful attempt to sustain a move back above the top. Could Powell’s upcoming presser in a couple of days provide the breakout the market needs?

Altcoin News: Sui’s ETF Boost, Ethereum’s Sentiment Slump

One of our favourite altcoins, Sui, has received a spot ETF filing from Canary Capital, giving it an extra boost today—up 6%.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s sentiment has turned extremely negative, reflected in its price action. To make matters worse, Standard Chartered Bank has slashed its year-end price target for ETH by a massive 60%, dropping from $10,000 to $4,000.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.34)

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency is back in the Stormrake Spotlight… After a massive November rally, XRP has been stuck in a wide range between $2–$3, with only brief deviations beyond it. Currently, it’s trading in the lower half of the range, showing bearish momentum and a bearish structure.

XRP is facing resistance at the 21 and 55 EMAs, as well as key monthly CPR levels. If it can form a higher low above $1.89, it could be the first sign of bulls reclaiming control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has flipped momentum back to the bulls but remains in an overall neutral structure. A higher low was formed last night, but the rally that followed quickly topped out, creating another lower high—further reinforcing the neutral stance.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 17 Mar: $ + 105.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 14:14:34 +1100<![CDATA[Bear Hunting: Whales vs. the $460M Bitcoin Short]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/bear-hunting-whales-vs.-the-460m-bitcoin-shortIt's bear hunting season as whales attempt to liquidate a massive Bitcoin short.]]>
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Over the last 24 hours, we’ve witnessed a major bear open a massive leveraged position on Bitcoin. Initially, it was a $330 million short at 40x cross leverage when Bitcoin was at $84,040. This has now increased to a $460 million position, as the trader expanded their stake to avoid liquidation.

On the initial $330 million position, the liquidation level was $85,300, leaving little margin for error. Many speculated that this was either an insider trader with privileged information or simply a high-stakes gambler. At first, the bear was sitting comfortably in profit as Bitcoin dropped to $82,300. But then, the market struck back.

A group of whales banded together to force liquidation, triggering what could be called bear-hunting season. In just nine minutes, these whales managed to pump Bitcoin up 2.3% to $85,100—just $200 away from the bear’s liquidation level. The aggressive move left the bear scrambling, ultimately adding to their position to push their liquidation price higher.

Unfortunately for the whales, the bear survived by the skin of their teeth and is now sitting in even greater profit, as the market failed to sustain the rally and retraced downward.
*For those interested in tracking the trader’s positions live, check out the image and the link above.*

Bitcoin’s Range Holds Firm—For Now

Despite the volatility and bear-hunting drama, Bitcoin remains within its established range of $81K–$85K. While this massive bear short position makes it seem like the bears are in control, the bigger picture suggests neutral market conditions. However, this week could bring a decisive move.

The market is already bracing for the latest round of Trump tariff news, which seems to be becoming a frequent market disruptor. More significantly, all eyes are on Jerome Powell’s press conference following the interest rate decision on Thursday morning—an event that could finally push Bitcoin out of this range.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.52)

After five consecutive bullish days, Sonic has experienced a timely 9.90% retracement, meeting the 21 EMA. This pullback presents a key buying opportunity and a chance to dollar-cost average below a critical accumulation level.

Despite the overall bearish market, Sonic continues to dominate on-chain and exhibit promising price action—a strong sign for its future potential.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin remains range-bound between $81,600 and $85,200. The recent failed attempt to liquidate the bear is evident in a candle with an extremely long wick, which met the top of the range before rejecting sharply.

With Bitcoin now trading below all key moving averages, momentum has flipped back in favour of the bears.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 16 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum has now spent almost a full week consolidating between $1,797 and $2,019. Overnight, ETH saw another bearish flip of the 21 and 55 EMA, reinforcing downside momentum.

At present, ETH favours a move toward the lower end of the consolidation range unless bulls can reclaim key levels.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 16 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 14:08:55 +1100