Stormrake - Insights #Bitcoin TariffStormrake - Insights #Bitcoin Tariffhttps://www.stormrake.com/blogs/tag/bitcoin-tariffFri, 03 Apr 2026 16:12:38 +1100http://zoho.com/sites/<![CDATA[The Rake Review: December 2025]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/the-rake-review-december-20252025 was not the year many hoped for, but it was far from a waste. Bitcoin made structural progress, hit key adoption milestones, and may now be undervalued both relative to its own history and within the broader macro environment. The groundwork is set.]]>

2025: A Year in Review

As people unwrap their gifts this holiday season, it's time to reflect on a year that didn’t go as many had hoped. While Bitcoin is likely to close 2025 in the red, it has been far from a wasted year. Quiet wins, foundational progress, macro shifts have quietly taken shape and may set the stage for what comes next. Compared to many other assets, Bitcoin may now be undervalued, not just relative to its own history, but within the broader macro environment.

Rather than the usual monthly Rake Review, we’re taking a deeper dive into the year that was.

January: Trump Returns

One of the biggest stories from 2024 became reality in January as Donald Trump was officially inaugurated and returned to the White House. The bullish sentiment surrounding his return saw risk on assets push higher, with Bitcoin setting its first all time high of the year just shy of $110K.

Optimism spread quickly. Trump introduced the Crypto Task Force within the SEC and Gary Gensler stepped down as chair. He was replaced by Paul Atkins, a long-time critic of Gensler's anti-crypto stance and far more favourable towards the space.

February: The Month of Rumours

The bullish tone continued, but headlines shifted. February was dominated by speculation and two major narratives emerged. First, rumours surrounding sweeping new tariffs from Trump's economic agenda began to circulate and started to weigh on risk markets. Second, the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve began to build. It was still unconfirmed, but momentum was growing.

March: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Confirmed

March may go down as one of the most important months in Bitcoin’s history. The US Government officially announced the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. While Bitcoin had previously been adopted by countries like El Salvador and Argentina, the involvement of the US brought a level of legitimacy the space had never seen.


This move did not just validate Bitcoin to institutions and retail investors. It integrated Bitcoin into global government strategy.

April: Markets Liberated

Tariff speculation finally turned into reality. April 3 became known as Liberation Day. Trump announced tariffs on 185 countries, with a base 10 % applied to most and higher rates for others. The result was a broad selloff across markets. Bitcoin fell to $75K and the S&P 500 also posted its yearly low.

The fear was short lived. Markets rebounded and Bitcoin kicked off a seven week bullish streak.

May: Sell in May and Go Away?

That phrase has been passed around for years, but it did not apply in 2025. Bitcoin extended its rally and set a new all time high at $112K. This came as US debt surged past $37 trillion and confidence in the traditional system continued to erode. Investors rotated out of the dollar and into hard assets, with Bitcoin one of the biggest beneficiaries.

June: Middle East Conflict

Just as momentum was building, geopolitical tensions flared. Conflict between Iran and Israel rattled risk markets. A brief pullback followed, but it did not last long.


By the end of H1, Bitcoin was up over 15 % for the year, the S&P 500 had gained 5.5 %, gold was up 26 % and silver had climbed 25 %.

July: Regulatory Wins and Momentum

With conflicts easing and tariffs temporarily paused, July saw another push higher. Bitcoin hit a new all time high at $123K.

The month was also defined by major wins on the regulation front. The first Crypto Week was held in Washington and three key bills passed through Congress — the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act and Anti-CBDC Act. The GENIUS Act was signed into law, providing stablecoin regulation and clearer crypto guidelines. While not directly tied to Bitcoin, it gave broader confidence to the entire crypto space.

The first whispers of altseason began to surface.

August: Ethereum Runs and Executive Order Signed

Momentum carried through into August. Bitcoin pushed just above July’s high at $124K, but this time it was Ethereum that took centre stage.

Institutional accumulation was the dominant narrative. Spot ETF flows into ETH were at their highest since launch. Ethereum reached a new all time high just shy of $5,000, its first in nearly four years.

Another big win for Bitcoin came with an executive order that allowed digital assets to be included in 401K retirement accounts. A major step forward for adoption in the US.

September: Rate Cuts and Decentralised Momentum

September has historically been Bitcoin’s worst month. In 2025, price held steady, setting up a potential fourth quarter rally.

DeFi took the spotlight. Decentralised exchanges hit record volume. Hyperliquid continued to dominate until Aster arrived and quickly became a serious competitor.

Macro-wise, the US saw its first rate cut of the year. Signs that quantitative tightening was coming to an end, and liquidity was starting to return. A key turning point for risk markets.

October: New High and the 10/10 Crash

The month began with strength. Bitcoin hit a new all time high at $126K in the first week.

Then came October 10.

Trump issued a surprise tariff threat on China, this time at 100%. Markets sold off sharply. A stablecoin depegged on Binance, market makers were caught offside and Bitcoin crashed from $117K to $102K. Some altcoins dropped more than 80 % in less than 30 minutes.

Close to $20 billion was wiped in liquidations. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen over 30 % and is now red on the year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has recovered and gone on to set new highs.

November: Yen Pressure Returns

The main story in November was once again Japan. Last year, it was a surprise rate hike. This year, it was surging bond yields that triggered another potential unwind of the yen carry trade, with both the 10-year and 30-year yields hitting their highest levels since the turn of the century.

Rising borrowing costs forced institutions to exit risk on positions, including crypto. Bitcoin came under pressure as a result.

Still, there was a silver lining. The US Federal Reserve officially announced the end of quantitative tightening. It did not spark a rally, but it laid the groundwork for future expansion.

December: Metals Take the Lead

Bitcoin was flat in December, with little interest in risk. The Fed cut rates, the BOJ raised them, and the effects cancelled each other out.

Instead, all eyes were on commodities. The Fed announced it would begin buying $40 billion in Treasuries. The first taste of quantitative easing. Gold continued to climb to new highs on daily closes, and silver surged 45 % for the month.

Bitcoin sat idle. But historically, metals lead the way and risk follows. That rotation may arrive early in 2026.

What Does This Mean for 2026?

There is no hiding from the fact that Bitcoin has underperformed in 2025. But it was a year of progress, development and structural change.


We saw:

  • Multiple all time highs

  • The creation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

  • Pro crypto legislation signed into law

  • A crypto friendly SEC and White House

  • Expanded access to Bitcoin through retirement plans

  • The end of tightening and early stages of monetary easing


All of this came alongside a red year for Bitcoin and currently 30% down from its all time high. Expectations are more grounded going into 2026. No calls for blow off tops or vertical rallies. But given the policy backdrop and recent correction, Bitcoin looks far closer to a bottom than a top. The groundwork has been laid throughout the year, and whilst not reflected in the price performance of Bitcoin, it has been invaluable for the long term health and performance for Bitcoin…


At current levels, it is fair to say Bitcoin is undervalued.

Stormrake 2026 Bitcoin Thesis:

Stormrake expects Bitcoin to trade materially higher in 2026, with a base case range of $180,000 to $250,000. The drivers are not speculative narratives, but balance sheet stress, sovereign refinancing pressure, and structurally limited supply.

Roughly $7 trillion in US debt matures in Q1 (and over a third of all US debt to mature in 2026). It must be refinanced at meaningfully higher yields, pushing interest expense near defence-level spending. Policy is no longer about inflation or employment. It is about fiscal survival. Bitcoin benefits not from collapse, but from visible refinancing stress and the constraints it places on monetary tools.

Liquidity is returning, not through headline QE, but quietly via repo facilities, yield curve interventions, and regulatory nudges. The Fed is already injecting billions through overnight repo. That liquidity is flowing into scarce assets. Bitcoin absorbs it faster each cycle.


Post-halving supply is negligible. ETF flows are steady. Institutions are allocating gradually. 
Corporate treasuries and long-term holders are reducing float. 2026 is not about euphoria. It is about absorption.

Risks remain. A failed Treasury auction, prolonged high rates, or renewed regulation can delay upside. But in every stress case, the long-term thesis holds. Bitcoin is not pricing perfection. It is pricing policy distortion and fiscal constraint.

Bitcoin in 2026 is not competing with tech stocks or altcoins. It is competing with sovereign credibility. Volatility is the cost. Scarcity is the payoff.

Video of the month:

Michael Saylor Keynote | Bitcoin MENA 2025

Education: Beyond Price: On-Chain Metrics That Matter

Most Bitcoin investors only look at price as a way to measure value and decide whether to enter or exit a position. But there is much more to Bitcoin than just price, especially when it comes to evaluating where we are in the cycle. This is where on-chain data comes in, helping to assess Bitcoin’s true value based on investor behaviour, holding patterns and capital flow.

Here are three of the key on-chain metrics we use to better understand Bitcoin's value. Each provides a different lens on sentiment, valuation, and cycle timing.

MVRV Z-Score: Market Value to Realized Value

MVRV Z-Score is a chart that uses blockchain data to highlight when Bitcoin is significantly over or undervalued compared to its historical fair value.

It’s based on three components:

  1. Market Cap (black line)
  2. Realised Value (blue line),  not the current Bitcoin price. This is calculated by taking the price at which each Bitcoin last moved (wallet to wallet), then averaging those prices and multiplying by the total circulating supply
  3. Z-Score (orange line),  a standard deviation measure that identifies extreme differences between Market Cap and Realised Value

On the chart, the green band near ~0.10 represents undervaluation and typically aligns with cycle bottoms. The red band around ~7 indicates overvaluation and has historically marked cycle tops. When Bitcoin enters either band, a top or bottom has usually followed within two weeks.

Right now, the Z-Score sits below 1, signalling that Bitcoin is undervalued and still trending lower. If the price continues to drop, the Z-Score will likely follow. Should it enter the green band, this would suggest a bottom is near and historically has offered generational accumulation opportunities.

Short Term Holder Realised Price:

Understanding Sentiment Through Recent Buyers

This metric reflects the average price that Bitcoin has been moved on-chain within the past 155 days. Anyone holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days is considered a short term holder.

Short term holders are more reactive to market volatility. They are more likely to sell during corrections and are typically driven by short term sentiment. This metric gives us a clear picture of whether recent buyers are in profit or in drawdown.

The chart shows Bitcoin price (yellow line) against the short term holder realised price (green line). When price is above the STH realised price, it indicates a bullish market as these holders are in profit. When price is below, it signals bearish sentiment as they are in loss.

Currently, the STH realised price sits around $99.7K, while Bitcoin is trading at $87K. That gap highlights a clear sentiment shift. Short term holders are under pressure, which explains the weak price action and overall bearish tone.

This metric is not only useful for sentiment. It also often acts as a dynamic support or resistance level during different phases of the cycle.

Long Term Holder Supply:

Tracking Smart Money Accumulation and Distribution

Long term holder supply refers to the total Bitcoin supply held by wallets that have not moved their coins for at least 155 days.

In the chart, Bitcoin price is shown by the orange line, and long term holder supply is represented by the green area. This metric helps us see when long term holders are accumulating or distributing their coins, and it usually leads price action.

Long term holder supply tends to peak just before Bitcoin price tops. This is when early investors begin distributing. It also tends to bottom around Bitcoin’s price peak, as new long term holders accumulate during bear markets. An increase in long term holder supply after a correction typically signals the early stages of a new cycle.

Currently, LTH supply sits around 14.1 million,  the lowest since 2021, after peaking in June. That peak occurred just months before Bitcoin’s current all time high at $126K. If this supply begins to increase again, it would confirm that the cycle top is in, and accumulation is once again underway.

These are just three of many useful metrics that go beyond simple price analysis. Together, they help identify whether Bitcoin is undervalued, measure market sentiment, and give clues as to where we are in the cycle.

As it stands:

  • MVRV Z-Score suggests Bitcoin is undervalued
  • STH Realised Price shows short term sentiment is bearish
  • LTH Supply points to a potential cycle top already in

All three tell a story that Bitcoin may be in a bottoming phase. These metrics should be tracked regularly as they are often early signals of where Bitcoin could go next.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2022 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Wed, 31 Dec 2025 09:26:00 +1100<![CDATA[Easter Consolidation]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Easter-ConsolidationNo market movement, no geopolitical headlines — just quiet Easter consolidation across the board.]]>
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Another quiet one across all markets — for the first time in a while, there were no tariff announcements, no inflation updates, no Trump headlines, and nothing major out of crypto. Even price action was muted. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and most major coins moved less than 1%, mirroring the traditional markets, where both the S&P 500 and Gold also fluctuated under 1%.

Bitcoin has now entered its seventh consecutive day locked in a range. With the absence of headlines and the tail-end of the public holiday period, the next few sessions are likely to deliver more of the same: low volume and sideways chop within the current structure.

Use the downtime over the Easter weekend to step away from the charts and enjoy the break — the market will still be here when you're back.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.05)

XRP has had another sluggish week, printing a series of small daily red candles as it continues to drift lower beneath the 21 EMA. Yesterday’s 0.30% drop brings it closer to the bottom of its range, where a strong support zone is forming, backed by both the 200 EMAs and a historically reliable level. A reaction here could set the tone for the next move.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin dipped 0.56% yesterday, continuing its slow grind within the broader range. It failed once again to breach resistance at $85.2K, with momentum now leaning slightly bearish. That said, the structure remains neutral — and with such low conviction, sentiment could flip in either direction at the drop of a headline.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 18 April: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Sat, 19 Apr 2025 18:01:32 +1000<![CDATA[Powell vs. Trump: Rate Cuts, Pressure, and the Limits of Power]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/powell-vs.-trump-rate-cuts-pressure-and-the-limits-of-powerTrump keeps pressuring Powell—but the Fed isn’t budging on rate cuts.]]>
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Since returning to office a few months ago, Trump has made it clear: he wants interest rates to come down—and he wants it now. But fortunately (or unfortunately), the decision doesn’t rest with him. That authority lies with the independent US Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell.

Despite Trump’s ongoing pressure—whether through speeches or sharp social media posts—Powell hasn’t flinched. He’s held firm in his stance, making it clear that the Fed will respond to economic conditions, labour market strength, and inflation data—not political pressure. Powell has reiterated this repeatedly at press conferences, brushing off Trump’s criticisms and continuing to operate by the principles that have long guided the Federal Reserve.

Now, the latest headlines have taken a sharper turn. Trump is reportedly seeking to fire the very man he once nominated during his first term. Overnight, he stated, “termination cannot come fast enough!” in a swipe at Powell, reacting to news that the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates for the seventh time. But Powell’s position isn’t easy to dismantle. As chair of an independent agency, he can only be removed “for cause”—meaning misconduct or failure to fulfil duties, not simply because of policy disagreements.

So it’s extremely unlikely Trump gets his way. Powell is expected to remain in his role and continue making data-driven decisions. What we can expect, however, is more pressure from Trump—most likely via social media and pressers.

Meanwhile in the crypto space...

Bitcoin had another quiet session, moving just 1% higher from the day’s open. We’re now six days into a tight Bitcoin range—just 3% wide—between $83K and $86K. We saw something similar in March: over a week of sideways action before a breakout, which at the time was sparked by tariff headlines. We could be looking at a similar setup again.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.05)

Another day, another failed attempt for XRP to reclaim the 21EMA. Unless Bitcoin breaks out of its range and pushes higher, XRP looks set to retest the bottom of its range. The $1.98 level has only been breached once in the last five months—and when it was, XRP swiftly reclaimed it.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has climbed from the range low and is now testing a key level at $85.2K. The slow grind up has brought a bullish momentum shift, marked by a bullish cross between the 21EMA and 55EMA. Should BTC break above this resistance, expect the top CPR resistance which has been resistance for the last six days. If it fails here, we could see a pullback towards the range low at $83.6K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 17 April: $ + 25.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Fri, 18 Apr 2025 17:07:06 +1000<![CDATA[245% Tariffs: The Trade War That Won’t Die]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/245-tariffs-the-trade-war-that-won-t-dieFurther tariffs on China have knocked tech stocks, erasing weekend gains, while Powell remains unfazed.]]>
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Another 24 hours filled with tariff drama—this time hitting traditional markets harder than Bitcoin. Further levies have been imposed on China, and Powell has responded.

Previously, the US had slapped a staggering 145% tariff on select Chinese imports—already an aggressive move. But China was ready to retaliate, and did just that. Now, in response to China's countermeasures, the White House has escalated tariffs to as high as 245%, citing China's "retaliatory actions." Despite the pressure, China is holding firm, reiterating its willingness to "fight until the end."

This escalation has shaken key US tech names. Apple and Nvidia, which had both staged promising rallies after weekend tariff exemptions, have been hit hard. Apple has relinquished all its gains, and Nvidia has dropped nearly 10% over the past few days.

Meanwhile, gold continues its meteoric rise, trading at $3,354—a clear sign of a risk-off environment. With gold setting new all-time highs every other day and now up 12% in just eight days, this kind of surge is rare and speaks volumes about investor sentiment.

Powell Speaks Out—But Doesn’t Fold

Jerome Powell took to the stage in Chicago today, and all ears were on him. Trump has been vocal in demanding rate cuts, yet Powell remains unmoved. Today, he doubled down—stating clearly that the Fed won’t intervene to support equity markets unless there’s a major systemic issue.

He also acknowledged the long-term impact of tariffs, especially on the auto sector, warning that car supply chains could face disruption for years. Despite the uncertainty, Powell remains confident in the US economy, citing a strong job market and ongoing resilience.

With the next interest rate decision due in May, markets had previously priced in a potential cut. But sentiment has shifted. There's now an 86.4% probability of no rate cut in May, pushing expectations to June for the first 25bps cut.

On crypto, Powell struck a surprisingly constructive tone. He noted that digital assets are becoming more mainstream and said a legal framework for stablecoins “makes sense.” He also indicated that banking regulations around crypto may loosen, a potentially bullish signal for the sector.

Bitcoin Shows Strength Amid Market Chaos

Bitcoin has held steady over the past 24 hours, even as tech stocks fell and tariffs intensified—a sign of resilience. Historically, BTC has closely tracked major tech names, but we’re now witnessing an emerging decoupling. Bitcoin is behaving more like a risk-off asset, compared to tech stocks which are getting hammered by geopolitical noise.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.07)

It’s been another quiet day for XRP—not a bad thing. Consolidation at the recent high, while holding above the lower end of the range, is constructive.

XRP is still facing resistance from two moving averages above, which need to be cleared to shift the structure bullish and target the mid-range area near $2.40.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has reclaimed the tight CPR range between $83.6k and $85.8k, following a brief dip below. Support from prior price action and the 200EMA helped BTC regain footing.

Momentum remains sideways and structure is rangebound. A break above this range could open up a move to $89.9k, while a break below could drag BTC down toward $81.6k.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 16 April: $ - 201.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Thu, 17 Apr 2025 12:53:28 +1000<![CDATA[Bitcoin Stalls as Trade War Pressures Mount on Nvidia]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/bitcoin-stalls-as-trade-war-pressures-mount-on-nvidia
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Another slow day for Bitcoin, slipping approximately 1%, with Ethereum and Solana both down 2%. BTC tested the upper range discussed yesterday but couldn’t sustain a break above $86K, and has since been knocked back. Meanwhile, tariff headlines continue to weigh on traditional markets.

Despite the 90-day pause, little meaningful progress has been made between the US and European Union. Brussels expects tariffs to remain in place, as talks remain stalled with no clear breakthrough in sight.

Nvidia: The Trade War’s Favourite Target

The biggest casualty of the ongoing US-China trade skirmish remains Nvidia. Just hours after the White House suggested Trump was open to resuming trade talks with China, he moved to ban Nvidia’s H20 chips from being sold to the region. These chips were projected to contribute roughly 10.9% of Nvidia’s revenue. Following the ban, that figure is expected to fall nearly in half to just 5.9%.

In after-hours trading, Nvidia dropped nearly 7%. What’s more suspicious is that just hours before the announcement, there was an $8 million surge in put volumes on the Nasdaq 100 ETF. As expected, it dropped sharply following the news—shedding 300 points. This kind of pattern has become familiar during Trump’s presidency, with tariff shocks seemingly pre-empted by insider traders capitalising ahead of time. It’s a glaring red flag for market integrity—but in today’s regulatory landscape, it appears to be legal.

All Eyes on Powell

Jerome Powell is set to speak tomorrow morning, and markets will be watching closely—not just for any monetary guidance, but also for his reaction to the ongoing tariff flip-flops. The crypto market has been range-bound since late last week, and the tone Powell strikes could finally provide the volatility needed to push Bitcoin out of this rut.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.08)

A relatively quiet day for XRP, down less than 2%. It looks like XRP has confirmed a higher high on the chart. The current pullback must hold above the recent low at $1.72 to maintain the bullish structure. Fortunately, XRP has major support above that level, with both 200-day moving averages and the broader range floor in play. A higher low here would reinforce the bullish case, though momentum still sits with the bears for now.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

We highlighted Bitcoin’s CPR range in yesterday’s note, and after failing to break above $85,800, BTC has printed nine red hourly candles in the last eleven. The breakdown below the lower CPR level at $83.6K signals that bears have recaptured short-term momentum. This opens up the possibility of a return to the next key support at $81.6K.

Still, bulls have two critical lifelines—the 200 EMA and 200 SMA—just above that level, offering strong potential for a bounce.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 15 April: $ + 38.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Wed, 16 Apr 2025 11:02:22 +1000<![CDATA[Bitcoin Ranges, Gold Rallies, USD Sees Worst Start in 30 Years]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/bitcoin-ranges-gold-rallies-usd-sees-worst-start-in-30-years
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A slow day for Bitcoin over the last 24 hours, with price deviating less than 1% from its open. The majors followed suit—Ethereum edged up 1.5%, while SOL and XRP posted gains of under 1%. Attention, however, was firmly centred on OM—and for good reason.

In traditional finance, most US equities opened stronger than Friday’s close but ultimately finished in the red. The S&P 500 marked another losing session, though it still sits higher than its Friday close—same story for the Nasdaq. Meanwhile, gold broke above $3,200 per ounce for the first time in history. It's now up 22% year-to-date, while most other assets remain in the red—including the DXY, which has fallen 8% since January. That marks its worst start to a year since 1995.

Trump’s strategy appears to be taking shape: devalue the dollar to boost US global competitiveness. But the trade-off is a pullback in risk-on assets, even as gold rallies in response.

In a notable development, Nvidia has announced it will manufacture AI supercomputers domestically for the first time ever. A major milestone—and a move aligned with Trump’s tariff playbook, aimed at reshoring high-value manufacturing.

OM Collapse: Red Flags Ignored

More details are emerging around the OM collapse, and with hindsight, the red flags were hard to miss.

The primary catalyst was suspicious wallet activity and the team’s overwhelming control of the token’s supply—90% of total supply was in the hands of the MANTRA team (defeats the purpose of decentralisation). That’s a glaring red flag, but it was seemingly overlooked in the rush to ride the hot real world asset narrative.

A wallet linked to MANTRA transferred 3.9 million $OM tokens to OKX, triggering immediate concerns. With the team holding near-total control of the supply, market manipulation became a legitimate fear. Rumours of over-the-counter (OTC) sales at discounts of up to 50% further eroded trust, hinting that insiders were offloading tokens at the expense of retail holders.

The fallout was swift. Panic selling set in, triggering a cascade of stop-losses and leveraged liquidations. Over $6 billion in market value was wiped out in just 30 minutes.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.12)

Like Bitcoin, XRP had a relatively flat session, gaining less than 1%. But the lack of movement shouldn’t be seen as bearish—in fact, it’s quite the opposite. If XRP can continue building a base above the 21EMA (yellow line), it sets the stage for a potential breakout to the upside.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, moving between the CPR level of $83.6K and resistance at $85.8K. This range-bound price action is structurally bullish, as it signals continuation. A breakout above $85.8K could fuel a move toward $90K, while a breakdown may see Bitcoin retest the low $80K region.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 14 April: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 15 Apr 2025 12:11:32 +1000<![CDATA[Macro Fuels Bitcoin Push While Altcoin Fragility is Exposed]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/macro-fuels-bitcoin-push-while-altcoin-fragility-is-exposedBitcoin climbs amid tariff rollbacks and the dramatic fall of Mantra (OM).]]>
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Since our last update, it’s been a whirlwind few days in crypto. Bitcoin surged to $86K following a key policy shift from the Trump administration, and this morning saw the dramatic collapse of a top 20 crypto project.

Tariff Rollbacks Fuel Risk-On Rally

Saturday night's rally was driven by news that the US will grant tariff exemptions on smartphones, computers, and chip-makers—a significant rollback from Trump’s previously hardline stance. Before these exemptions, the projected price of an iPhone was expected to soar to around $3,500 USD, up from $1,000 USD, a staggering increase that would’ve hit consumers directly. This illustrates how deeply such tariffs impact everyday goods, especially as domestic production costs in the US remain far higher than imports from Asia.

While this rollback gave risk-on assets a boost, the broader picture remains murky. The continued policy flip-flopping adds further noise to an already convoluted macroeconomic backdrop. Today it’s bullish, but the next tariff headline could just as easily unwind the gains.

OM Collapses—RWA Sector Shaken

Not all headlines have been positive. Mantra (OM)—ranked as the 19th largest crypto project and the leading Real World Asset (RWA) protocol—collapsed overnight. At midnight, OM was trading at $6.50, with a market cap near $6 billion. By midday, it had plummeted to $1.00, slashing its market cap to $1 billion. A staggering 90% drop in less than 12 hours.

Panic has taken hold, with investors scrambling for answers. Rumours are swirling, but nothing concrete has emerged yet. In OM’s absence, Ondo now claims the top spot as the leading RWA protocol. It’s a brutal reminder of the immaturity still prevalent in the altcoin market, and the inherent risks in deviating from Bitcoin.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.14)

XRP has begun to reclaim its bullish structure, printing a higher high. If it can now form a higher low above $1.72, that structure will be confirmed. It’s currently holding above the 21EMA—a positive sign. If bulls maintain control, we could see XRP push towards the mid-range level at $2.40 in the sessions ahead.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin remains in bullish structure with strong momentum. It briefly pierced the key resistance at $85.2K before pulling back to test the 55EMA, which held firm. BTC has since bounced, once again challenging this critical level. For the uptrend to continue, a confirmed break above $85.2K is essential. Failure to do so could open the door for the bears to return.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 13 April: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 15 Apr 2025 12:05:20 +1000<![CDATA[Bitcoin sentiment strengthens as bulls return]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/bitcoin-sentiment-strengthens-as-bulls-return
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Bitcoin sentiment continues to build as price action remains bullish, climbing back above $83K. The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin has now risen to 43, quickly approaching the neutral zone—further evidence that bearish momentum is fading. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s own Fear & Greed reading has slipped from 17 to 13 despite the index rising 1.81% overnight. With BTC reclaiming ground, bears are steadily losing their grip on market control.

While the tariff headlines have quietened, tensions between China and the US persist. Overnight, China escalated the situation, raising tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125%.

The US 10-year Treasury yield has rallied once more, now sitting at 4.5%, prompting a response from the Federal Reserve, which is reportedly "absolutely" prepared to intervene to stabilise the market, per the Financial Times.

We're potentially witnessing a shift in policy drivers, with the US10Y becoming a central force.

Some believe the recent bond yield spike may have influenced Trump’s decision to delay new tariffs. There are also murmurs that the Fed could act earlier than expected, and rumours are circulating about Trump potentially scheduling a call with Chinese President Xi to address the tariff war. Still, Trump maintains that "the bond market did not drive his decision to delay reciprocal tariffs by 90 days."

Looking ahead, the next interest rate decision arrives in early May. While markets initially priced in the first cut of the year, expectations have cooled. There’s now a 60.2% probability of no change, and just a 39.8% chance of a 25 bps cut.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.01)

XRP successfully reclaimed its broader range yesterday, closing back above $1.98. Not only did price reclaim key territory, it also moved above both the 200-day SMA and EMA—an encouraging sign for bulls.

That said, bears still maintain structural control. For the bulls to flip the trend, XRP must push past the recent high of $2.18 to establish a clear higher high.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin rallied nearly 5% yesterday, testing CPR resistance once again at $83.6K. While BTC was previously rejected at this level, bulls now appear firmly in control, with both momentum and market structure favouring the upside.

The 21EMA is expected to act as immediate support, with the next key target sitting at $85.2K. Bulls remain in charge as long as any pullback holds above $81.6K—a level supported by the 55EMA, both 200-day moving averages, and a broader trendline.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 11 April: $ - 1.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Sat, 12 Apr 2025 17:34:15 +1000<![CDATA[Inflation Falls, But Tariffs Keep Pressure On]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/inflation-falls-but-tariffs-keep-pressure-on1
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Markets saw a modest pullback overnight as investors began to realise that the 90-day tariff pause hasn’t halted the broader trade war. The announcement appears increasingly like a classic bull trap, with tariffs not only remaining intact—but intensifying.

Here’s where things currently stand:

  • 10% baseline tariffs on all countries global
  • 25% on automobile imports to the US
  • 25% on on steel and aluminum
  • 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico
  • 145% tariffs on Chinese imports

Overnight, tariffs on Chinese imports were ramped up further, now sitting at an eye-watering 145%. President Trump also stated he’s considering delisting Chinese companies from US exchanges—adding another layer of geopolitical risk to an already fragile environment.

Despite the dip, markets remain higher than earlier in the week. The S&P 500 fell 3.5%, Bitcoin dropped 3.7%, slipping back below $80K, while gold rallied to yet another all-time high, trading above $3,200 USD/oz.

Markets Shrug Off Soft CPI Data

Adding to the mix was the release of inflation data—typically a market-moving event. However, markets barely flinched at a bullish CPI print. For the second consecutive month, inflation came in below expectations:

  • Core CPI MoM: Forecast 0.3%, Actual 0.1%
  • Headline CPI MoM: Forecast 0.1%, Actual -0.1%
  • Headline CPI YoY: Forecast 2.5%, Actual 2.4%

This is usually bullish for risk assets, yet markets remained flat or down. The lack of response shows the market’s current tunnel vision—tariffs are the dominant narrative, and even strong macro tailwinds are being ignored.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($1.98)

XRP has reclaimed the lower boundary of its long-standing range after bouncing off a key support zone. Up 24% from its recent low at $1.61, the momentum and structure still favour the bears. However, a daily close above $1.98 would be the first sign of bullish recovery. Keep it on the radar.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin was rejected from $81.6K at the CPR level and is now trading below all major moving averages. The 21 and 55 EMAs are also on the verge of flipping—if they do, momentum shifts firmly back into bearish control.

However, if BTC can form a higher low above $75.7K, the structure flips back in favour of the bulls. Until then, we remain in a vulnerable zone.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 April: $ - 149.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Sat, 12 Apr 2025 17:25:54 +1000<![CDATA[90-Day Tariff Pause Sparks Historic Market Rally]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/90-Day-Tariff-Pause-Sparks-Historic-Market-RallyMarkets post historic gains following Trump’s surprise 90-day tariff pause.]]>
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To add more fuel to the confusion regarding Trump’s ‘plan’ and ‘vision’, he’s just announced a 90-day pause on tariffs — this comes one week after the reciprocal tariffs went live…

But the markets don’t care about any confusion this adds — green everywhere. The S&P 500 up 9.51%, Dow Jones up 7.87%, Nasdaq up 13.66%, Gold up 3.38%, and of course Bitcoin, up 8.27% with some altcoins up 20%. The DJI experienced its first 3,000-point single-day increase, Nasdaq posted its second-largest day in history, Japan’s stock market rallied 10% on open, and the volatility index (VIX) fell by 35% today. Recession odds have also dropped, with Polymarket showing a 49% chance after sitting at 66% yesterday.

Now does this mean the tariff pause will relieve markets of some volatility and reduce the uncertainty within? Potentially. Fear and Greed readings for both traditional markets and Bitcoin have jumped — S&P 500 up 13 points to 17 but still in extreme fear, and Bitcoin up 21 points from 18 to 39, moving from extreme fear to regular fear.

This tariff pause came only hours after Trump posted on Truth Social saying ‘THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT’. We also saw traders open SPY, QQQ, and TQQQ call options expiring the same day — right before the pause was announced. Within the hour, those calls were up 2,100%... a clear sign of insider trading?

Now this isn’t the first time we’ve seen a tariff pause. Back at the start of February, when the US set tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China — a day later Canada hit back with the same. The US responded with a 30-day pause and markets rallied off the back of it. Bitcoin went from $91k to $101k during that stretch, but once the pause ended, BTC was back to $86k.

Currently we’ve seen Bitcoin rally from $74k to $83.5k on the news, Ethereum and Solana up 13%, Sui and XRP up 15%, and ONDO leading with 20%. Some great relief from recent bearish price action.

Now there’s still a long way to go before tariffs resume. In that time, expect more tariff headlines, potential negotiations, rate decisions, and inflation data. Until then, no one knows what the market will do — unless you’ve got a crystal ball.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($1.79)

The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) saw serious movement this past week — starting around 4.20% on April 2, then dropping to a low of 3.87% by April 4 amid a bond rally and safe-haven demand. This initial move lower helped ease borrowing costs and supported risk-on sentiment, even as recession fears lingered. But yields then surged to 4.55% by April 9 after Trump’s tariff escalation on China, raising inflation risks and hitting risk assets.

After today’s pause, which reset most tariffs to 10% for 90 days, yields dropped back to 4.277% over the last 24 hours — a 23 basis point (-5.23%) decline from the peak. This pullback reflects reduced uncertainty, sparking a broad-based risk-on rally as capital rotated out of bonds and back into equities and crypto.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has rallied back above $82k following the tariff pause. This move has flipped momentum back in favour of the bulls and the structure looks to be turning — with a higher high now in place. As long as we see a higher low next, bulls will regain structural control.

BTC reached the CPR and was rejected at $83.5k — this is the immediate resistance. Key support now sits at $81.6k — the main bounce level for BTC to continue higher.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 9 April: $ - 37.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Thu, 10 Apr 2025 11:50:35 +1000