Stormrake - Insights #Bitcoin Trade Wars

The Rake Review: July 2025

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 13:58:55 +1000

From Dormant Wallets to Record Highs and the Dawn of Altseason?

July was a month of contrasts for Bitcoin, with decade-old coins suddenly moving, fresh all-time highs, and the first major crypto regulations landing. The back half of the year has started stronger than expected, but can this momentum carry into a full-fledged altseason?

Blast from Bitcoin’s Past

Everyone wishes they bought Bitcoin earlier. Back in 2011, it was under $1. But even if you had bought it then, would you have held it until today? The likely answer is no. Most would have sold at $100, $1,000, or maybe $10,000.

The first challenge would have been simply buying it. Stormrake didn’t exist, so you couldn’t just call your broker for an allocation. Storing Bitcoin was also a headache. Hardware wallets like Ledger and Trezor didn’t exist, and the main exchange at the time, Mt. Gox, was hacked in 2013, with 7% of the total Bitcoin supply stolen.

Source:https://x.com/GregSchoen/status/70261648811761665

So the likelihood of you still having your Bitcoin, even if you bought it in 2011, is extremely slim. You most likely would have been like the X user above, who actually did buy Bitcoin in 2011 but sold at $0.30. For those curious, his 1,700 BTC is now worth roughly $196 million USD or $298 million AUD.

This month, several wallets from that early era suddenly came to life. Eight ‘Satoshi-Era’ wallets moved over 80,000 BTC, worth more than $8.4 billion USD at the time. Speculation immediately swirled around the crypto community. Was it Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, freed by Trump earlier this year? Early Bitcoin evangelist Roger Ver, recently released from prison? Or even Satoshi Nakamoto himself?

The initial movements triggered a brief wave of selling as investors feared a massive dump. But it turned out to be simple wallet upgrades, moving coins from old, inefficient addresses to newer ones with lower fees. The owners remain a mystery.

Then, late this month, Galaxy Digital confirmed one of the largest Bitcoin sales in history: more than 80,000 BTC sold for over $9 billion USD. It caused another quick sell-off, but demand quickly absorbed it. The market barely flinched. The only losers were the panic sellers. Everyone else, including the mystery whale who turned a $54,000 investment into $9 billion in under 15 years, won.

If it really was Ulbricht or Ver, perhaps prison was a blessing in disguise. A decade without access to their Bitcoin meant they couldn’t sell, and that enforced patience paid off. Or maybe it was simply someone with true diamond hands. Either way, the lesson is clear. Holding Bitcoin through its volatile cycles, as we tell our Stormrake clients time and time again, has historically been the ultimate reward.

The Altseason Question

Has altseason finally arrived? The bull run that many have been waiting for may now be upon us. Historically, altseasons have been extremely rewarding for holders of altcoins, but this cycle has tested patience. Over the last 12 to 18 months, we have seen several false starts. Traders tried to front-run altseason, rotated heavily into alts, and ended up holding deep drawdowns. Could this finally be the real one?

When it comes to altseason, there are a few reliable signals. This time, multiple signals are aligning more clearly than ever. Those who have been in the crypto space for several cycles will be familiar with the traditional phases of altseason:

Source:@Twitter

The path to altseason historically follows four overlapping phases. This current bull run has been dominated by Bitcoin and has effectively remained in Phase 1 for years. Bitcoin rose from $15.5K to well over $100K. While some sectors briefly outperformed—ISO tokens, real-world asset tokens—Bitcoin consistently led.

Phase 2 begins when Ethereum dominates, consistently outperforming Bitcoin and other altcoins. The key word here is consistency. Over the past few years, Ethereum occasionally outperformed Bitcoin for short bursts, but never for more than a couple of weeks. Many traders rotated too early, only to watch Bitcoin hit new all-time highs while Ethereum lagged.

The last few months have been different. Ethereum has now been consistently outperforming Bitcoin, supported by major institutional demand. Spot Ethereum ETF inflows have dwarfed Bitcoin ETF inflows on a market cap-adjusted basis. Since 2 July, Ethereum ETFs have not seen a single day of net outflows, while Bitcoin ETF flows have been mixed.

Phase 3 is when funds begin to rotate from Ethereum into the next set of large-cap altcoins: Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Sui (SUI). These coins start to lead the market and outperform both Bitcoin and Ethereum. We have already seen brief signs of this, with BNB and HYPE hitting new all-time highs while Ethereum remains below its peak. However, the outperformance must be sustained to confirm Phase 3. Until then, the market remains in Phase 2.

Price action is not the only way to identify altseason. Another key signal is Bitcoin dominance versus total altcoin market cap. Bitcoin dominance measures how much of the total crypto market cap is made up of Bitcoin. In a Bitcoin-led market, dominance rises above 60% while the altcoin market cap trends down. In contrast, during altseason, Bitcoin dominance breaks down while the total altcoin market cap rallies and breaks out. This does not necessarily mean Bitcoin falls—its price can still rise—but altcoins rise faster.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/xR8yelyJ/

The charts above show Bitcoin dominance breaking down and the total altcoin market cap breaking out. Dominance now has a confirmed bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows, while the altcoin market cap has reversed into a bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows. Together, this is the strongest confirmation of altseason we have seen in this cycle.

It finally seems like altseason is here. The signals are clear, the false starts are behind us, and institutions are now showing a preference for Ethereum over Bitcoin. But altseason does not mean you should rotate your entire position from Bitcoin into altcoins. Experienced cycle traders know that the real strategy is to let altcoins grow your Bitcoin stack. Accumulate altcoins, take profits during the outperformance, and use those gains to buy more Bitcoin.

July Delivered. What’s Next for August?

Last month, we set a July target for Bitcoin to create a new all-time high around $117K–$118K. July more than delivered, with a new all-time high at $123K, and it ultimately closed the month right at our target zone, up 8% for July. The bullish structure has been fully confirmed, setting up the back half of the year in a strong position.

Now we turn to August. Historically, August has been a bearish month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -0.23%. Nine of the last 14 Augusts have closed red, including the last three in a row. On the surface, history doesn’t favour a green month.

But this cycle is different. Bitcoin’s strength lies in its extremely bullish market structure and in a factor it has never had in past cycles: institutional demand. Institutions have been the primary driver of this bull run, alongside the rising global money supply. These factors could still override August’s historical weakness, even as the market’s confidence in a September rate cut has wavered. With over a month until the next FOMC meeting, sentiment has room to shift. Two key CPI prints and the rollout of new tariffs will land before the decision, offering clarity on the Fed’s next move. Historically, markets have been quick to front-run anticipated policy shifts, which makes a bullish August entirely plausible despite current uncertainty.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/hWcelaAb/

The current chart continues to show clear bullish momentum. Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase, moving sideways and building energy for its next leg up.

Price action is now testing the lower edge of this consolidation range, and with August being historically a bearish month, there is a chance we see a pullback towards the previous all-time high around $112K. This area aligns with the 55-day exponential moving average, which should act as a key bounce level if a sustained move lower occurs.

However, if August bucks its historical trend—as we expect it will—the breakout target from this consolidation range sits between $131.5K and $136K. These levels are supported by the 1.414 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels, as well as the central pivot range target at $132K.

In the News:

Liberation Day Tariffs Set to Resume on August 1:

A dominant theme this year has been tariffs, with the event that shocked markets occurring in April—dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump himself. A broad blanket of tariffs was placed on multiple countries, then delayed by 90 days to allow trade deal negotiations with the US. That deadline was later pushed to 1 August.

During the pause, several deals have been reached, most notably between the United States and the European Union. Countries that have not secured agreements by 1 August are expected to face the return of the Liberation Day tariffs.

Three Major Bills Passed During Crypto Week:

This month saw the inaugural Crypto Week, expected to be a milestone for crypto regulation, with three major bills targeted for passage: the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Act.

While the week started with a surprise setback as the initial vote to pass all three bills failed, a second vote days later saw all three approved. The GENIUS Act was signed into law on 18 July, marking a landmark moment for US crypto regulation and a strong step forward for the industry.

Geopolitical Escalations:

The conflict Trump claimed he could end within a day of taking office has once again moved to the forefront of investors’ minds. Frustrated by Russia’s continued refusal to engage in ceasefire or peace talks, Trump shortened his ceasefire deadline from 50 days to roughly 10.

If Russia does not comply, the US has threatened expanded sanctions and additional tariffs impacting all countries trading with Russia. This new deadline, expected in early August, is a critical factor to watch as it could influence market price action in the first weeks of the month.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in July 2025:

Bitcoin rose by 8% in July.
Ethereum dominated, rising by 49% in July.
Tron slipped to 10th, being jumped by Lido Staked Ethereum and Dogecoin.
HBAR continues to climb the ranks, up 67% and into the top 20 projects by market cap.
The total crypto market cap grew by 14.18% in July.

Video of the month:

Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan and US Crypto plans for the next 5 years...

Education: What to Avoid This Altseason

If this month has taught us anything, it is that holding spot Bitcoin remains the most rewarding investment strategy. As shown in our opening section, the Satoshi-era wallets turned modest investments into generational wealth simply by holding. They didn’t trade in and out, they didn’t chase the hype, and they certainly didn’t use leverage.

Now that we’re in altseason, the allure of chasing fast gains is everywhere. Narratives will explode overnight, and social media will be flooded with people bragging about their 100x winners. The biggest challenge is sticking to your plan. For most investors, that means holding your Bitcoin, using altcoins only as a tool to accumulate more Bitcoin, and most importantly, avoiding leverage.

The path to wealth in Bitcoin is simple and has been proven cycle after cycle:

Step 1: Buy spot Bitcoin

Step 2: Do not use leverage

Step 3: Be patient and wait

It sounds almost too simple, but this is the formula that works. Most people fail to follow it because they crave action, chase short-term returns, or convince themselves that leverage is a shortcut to wealth.

Leverage offers the illusion of easy profits, but in reality it is a ticking time bomb. You pay daily fees to keep positions open, and your exposure to the market is amplified. Even the smallest fluctuation can wipe out 100% of your funds. This month was a perfect example. Bitcoin spent over two weeks consolidating between $116K and $120K, a move of less than 3%, yet billions in leveraged positions were liquidated. Traders lost everything in a market that barely moved.

History tells the same story. Every Bitcoin bear market has seen brutal drawdowns of 80% or more. These periods are designed to shake out the impatient and punish those overexposed with leverage. If the Satoshi-era whale had ever used leverage, they would never have survived the 80%+ drawdowns that defined prior bear markets. Their eventual multi-billion-dollar fortune was only possible because they did the simplest thing: held spot Bitcoin with patience.

The Rule of 90 is another grim reminder of why most traders fail. According to this rule, 90% of novice traders will lose 90% of their capital within their first 90 days. Meanwhile, 100% of Bitcoin holders who have held spot for longer than 4 years have always been in profit. The contrast between trading and simply holding could not be clearer.

Leverage is not for investors. Investors are the ones with long-term conviction who survive the cycles and never become forced sellers. Leverage amplifies mistakes, turns normal volatility into existential risk, and destroys the one thing you need most to succeed in Bitcoin: time in the market.

The lesson is simple but profound: buy spot Bitcoin, avoid leverage, and be patient. It may feel boring, but boring is what builds lasting wealth in Bitcoin. Excitement and leverage are what get traders liquidated.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

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The Rake Review: June

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 19:50:11 +1000

How Washington and the Middle East Shaped June’s Bitcoin Market

As with much of the first half of 2025, June's price action was largely influenced by news and decisions from the White House, alongside ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, but it has set itself up for a potentially bullish second half of the year.

A Month Shaped by Macro Headwinds:

June was a month of notable volatility, with macro catalysts flying left and right. Every other day, a new announcement seemed to shock the markets. Despite this, Bitcoin remained relatively steady throughout, which should be viewed as a positive. Bitcoin lived up to its reputation as digital hard money in June.

The month began with the aftermath of May’s late pullback from its all-time high, opening the door for both bulls and bears to fight for control. However, neither side seized the opportunity until another macro catalyst rattled the market: a fallout between US President Donald Trump and his right-hand man, Elon Musk. Words were exchanged on social media, and the once-strong bromance seemed over. Risk-on markets panicked, giving bears the upper hand.

That said, Bitcoin and the market soon realised the absurdity of the feud. The fact that a dispute between two high-profile figures could cause such disruption highlighted the market’s vulnerability, but Bitcoin quickly bounced back into its consolidation range. After breaking out, Bitcoin continued its ascent and was knocking on the door of its all-time highs. Then, conflict in the Middle East escalated, with Israel launching a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear sites and other military targets and Iran launching ballistic missiles at Israeli cities in response. The risk-off sentiment returned quickly. Gold surged to new all-time highs, while crude oil spiked by 20% in two days. Yet, despite the rally in risk-off assets, risk-on assets didn’t react in the same way as in previous geopolitical crises. Traditional indices largely shrugged off the conflict, with the S&P 500 pulling back by less than 2% and the Nasdaq by 3%. Bitcoin showed a similar response, losing 11% during the conflict—far less than its usual reactions to global tensions. In the past, Bitcoin had dropped over 10% in a single day during such events. This 11% drop, over the course of the entire conflict, demonstrated the asset’s growing maturity.

In fact, these corrections should be welcomed, as they often lead to smart money accumulating Bitcoin while altcoins underperform. Historically, these corrections have been short-lived. Bitcoin has consistently recovered and pushed higher, typically within 60 days of such events.

Let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s performance during some of the most volatile macro events over the past five years:

While each event has triggered immediate volatility, Bitcoin has repeatedly persevered and rewarded those who took advantage of these short-term dips. In many cases, Bitcoin had recovered to break-even or positive just 10 days after the event. Two months later, the asset was in positive territory every single time. This is why we remained bullish despite the correction caused by the Middle East conflict—and will continue to be bullish during future events that may rock Bitcoin.

July Market Outlook: Ready for a Bullish Turn?

June proved to be another valuable lesson in holding strong with conviction and capitalising on corrections. With Bitcoin already up 10% from its monthly low, it’s now knocking on the door of all-time highs, setting the stage for what could be a strong second half of 2025.

We enter July with bullish momentum, but the market structure remains a cause for concern, still under the control of the bears. June underperformed its average, returning only 2.42%, and confirmed the bearish structure with a series of lower lows and lower highs, driven by negative macro catalysts.

Not only are we closing June, but we’re also finishing the first half of 2025, up 14.50%. While this is an improvement, it’s far from the explosive growth many had anticipated for the year. However, July could present the perfect opportunity for Bitcoin to finally live up to those 2025 expectations. With clearer tariff policies, settled interest rate expectations, and conflicts winding down—with a ceasefire between Israel and Iran confirmed, and Trump pushing for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, possibly in July—the fundamental catalysts are looking favourable for Bitcoin. Additionally, the global money supply continues to expand, and the US debt has now surpassed $37 trillion.

Historically, July has been a bullish month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the past fourteen July's returning positive gains. Those months that saw negative returns experienced relatively small drawdowns, with four of them dropping by less than 10%, and the largest drop being 16%. On average, Bitcoin has returned 8.26% in July.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Jw54wXkh/

Bitcoin bounced perfectly from the fair value gap identified last month, which corresponded with the monthly low. At present, Bitcoin is trading just at $107K, only a small percentage away from its all-time high. If Bitcoin can replicate its average July return of 8.26%, we could see new all-time highs around $116K. This aligns with the new CPR (Central Pivot Range) target of $117K and the key Fibonacci extension level of 1.414, which sits just above $118K.

However, before we talk about new all-time highs, Bitcoin must first break the current bearish structure and establish a new higher high above $110.6K. If Bitcoin creates another lower low, it will reinforce the bearish structure and likely trigger another sell-off. But if a new higher high is established, Bitcoin should continue pushing higher, potentially creating a new all-time high and venturing much further.

Stablecoin GENIUS Act Passed:

Amid the chaos in the Middle East this month, something significant passed under the radar—the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, or the Genius Act. One of the key promises of the Trump administration was to provide clearer regulations surrounding cryptocurrency, and it’s safe to say that promise has been delivered.

The purpose of the Genius Act is to establish the first comprehensive federal framework for regulating payment stablecoins in the U.S. The act aims to provide regulatory clarity, enhance consumer protections, and promote innovation, all while ensuring financial stability. Some key features of the bill include:

A clear definition of payment stablecoins
Reserve requirements (stablecoin issuers must hold 1:1 reserves)
Licensing requirements
And more

The bill has the backing of influential figures such as Senator Cynthia Lummis, as well as USDC issuers Circle and Coinbase. On the other hand, anti-crypto Senator Elizabeth Warren was a vocal critic of the bill, though to no avail.

The stablecoin industry is a $250 billion market, making up roughly 8% of the entire crypto market cap, with USDT in the lead and USDC in second place. The new bill opens the door for potential new competitors to challenge the dominance of these two major players. For general users, it could make stablecoins a more mainstream form of payment, while also providing compliant, regulated options that offer more clarity and safety, helping to avoid future collapses like Terra's UST in 2022.

Although this bill does not directly impact Bitcoin, its passage is undoubtedly a positive step for the broader crypto space. It signals a promising shift towards more thoughtful regulation within the industry and demonstrates that lawmakers, as well as major institutions, are increasingly supportive of pro-crypto bills. We can expect more legislation in the future, whether it’s further bills around Bitcoin, decentralized finance, or broader crypto clarity within the U.S. This marks a significant step toward fulfilling Trump’s promise of making the United States the home of cryptocurrency according to his administration.

In the News:

Circle IPO performance:

Source: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/chart/CRCL

Circle made waves in the traditional market space this month following its initial public offering (IPO). The company debuted at $31 on June 4th, quickly rallying to over $100 within the first day of trading before closing at $83. Since then, Circle has continued its remarkable upward trajectory, benefitting significantly from the passing of the Genius Act. As the primary issuer of USDC, the stablecoin bill has propelled Circle's stock, which is now trading at $180—up from its debut price in less than a month. Just a week ago, Circle reached a high of $298.99. It’s safe to say this has been one of the most successful IPOs in recent memory.

Big Beautiful BIll passed:

Source:https://www.usdebtclock.org/

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a key legislative priority for President Donald Trump, advanced in the Senate, with a 51-50 procedural vote. Despite concerns over its fiscal impact, the Senate’s version of the bill includes permanent extensions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, new tax breaks for tips and overtime, and significant spending on border security and defence. The bill is projected to cost $4.45 trillion over a decade. Critics—including Democrats and some Republicans—argue that the steep cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, combined with a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase, disproportionately harm low-income Americans while favouring the wealthy. This has sparked significant controversy, with the Senate now debating amendments ahead of a potential passage deadline on July 4, 2025.

Texas officially has a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve:

Texas has officially become the third US state to establish its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), further demonstrating the growing institutional and political integration of Bitcoin. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has expressed expectations that the state will invest tens of millions of dollars into Bitcoin through this publicly funded reserve. However, the Texas SBR differs from the federal version established by Trump in January. The Texas reserve is funded through state funds and voluntary contributions, aiming to diversify Texas's finances. In contrast, the federal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve uses seized crypto assets to strengthen national economic security—without tapping taxpayer dollars.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in June 2025:

Bitcoin rose just 2.42% in June.
Ethereum fell 1.62% in June.
Cardano fell out of the top 10, replaced by Lido Staked Ethereum.
Bitcoin dominance is at a multi-year high at 66%.
The total crypto market cap grew by just 1.15% in June.

Video of the month:

Jack Mallers Speech at BTCPrague

Bitcoin & SMSFs 101 Webinar: Insights with EasySuper

DATE: 30 July 2025 at 6:00 pm AEST

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Education - How to use Bitcoin:

Source: @Mr Curious

There are many who have heard of Bitcoin, and some choose to ignore or discount it. Among those who invest in it, even fewer truly understand its purpose and utility.

Most Bitcoin investors see it as just a speculative asset—one that has outperformed nearly every other investment over the years—and they're right. But Bitcoin is much more than just a speculative investment; its use case extends far beyond that.

Bitcoin was initially created as a means of exchange, designed to operate away from centralised third parties. It was intended to be exchanged peer-to-peer and to be inflation-proof, thanks to its fixed supply of 21 million tokens, making it immune to manipulation by any central authority.

Means of Exchange:

Bitcoin’s primary use was as a means of exchange, and even though its price has exploded over time, this hasn’t changed. Bitcoin remains a key peer-to-peer method of exchange. Regardless of its dollar value, Bitcoin can always be used as a means of exchange, and its divisibility ensures that it can serve even for smaller transactions.

Bitcoin is divisible to eight decimal places, with one Bitcoin consisting of 100 million satoshis. At current prices, one satoshi is worth approximately $0.00107 USD. This shows the incredible flexibility of Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. Whether you’re buying a coffee or paying for a service, all you need is a Bitcoin wallet, and you’ll always have access to a decentralised means of exchange—without the need for any third parties.

Store of Value:

Bitcoin as a store of value has been criticised by many skeptics who point to its volatility and bear markets as evidence that it cannot fulfil this role. While it’s true that Bitcoin is volatile and has experienced severe drawdowns, it’s incorrect to claim that it can’t function as a store of value.

Those who understand Bitcoin have been using it as a savings vehicle. With fiat currencies constantly devaluing, Bitcoin’s price appreciation against these currencies has proven its potential as a store of value. Long-term holders (Hodlers) have welcomed market corrections, viewing them as opportunities to accumulate more Bitcoin at lower prices.

A classic example of Bitcoin’s store of value can be seen in its purchasing power over time. Take a look at the chart below:

Australian Median House Price in Bitcoin (2014-2024)

In 2014, over 3,000 Bitcoin was required to buy the median Australian home. Today, less than 10 Bitcoin is needed to purchase the same home. Meanwhile, house prices in AUD have steadily increased over the past decade. This clearly demonstrates Bitcoin’s purchasing power growth compared to the declining purchasing power of fiat currency. This trend isn’t limited to real estate—everyday goods and services exhibit the same pattern, showing that Bitcoin has not only protected purchasing power but enhanced it.

Collateral & Borrowing:

For those who understand Bitcoin’s potential but are unsure how to spend it while retaining its value, the solution lies in using Bitcoin as collateral. Similar to using property as collateral, you can leverage your Bitcoin holdings to acquire fiat currency without having to sell or dispose of your Bitcoin.

As the crypto ecosystem has expanded, Bitcoin-backed loans have become widely available. This allows you to borrow fiat currency based on the value of your Bitcoin holdings, meaning you can continue to spend without parting with your Bitcoin. An added bonus is that borrowing against Bitcoin is not considered a taxable event.

The True Power of Bitcoin:

In its relatively short lifespan, Bitcoin has proven that it is much more than just a speculative investment. The ability to use Bitcoin as a means of exchange has been fundamental from the start—and will remain so. Bitcoin continues to defy critics who claim it isn’t a reliable store of value, and it has solved the key issue that many Bitcoin holders faced: how to extract value from Bitcoin without selling or disposing of it. By using Bitcoin as collateral, it is now possible to unlock the liquidity of your Bitcoin while preserving it as a store of value.

Yes, Bitcoin has proven to be an excellent investment asset, but it is also so much more.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Rake Review: May

Sun, 01 Jun 2025 19:17:19 +1000

May Marks Bitcoin’s Return — As the System Unravels

May proved what conviction looks like. As US debt soared past $37T, Bitcoin broke to new highs, reminding markets it’s not just resilient, it’s the alternative. In a system built on debt, Bitcoin isn’t reactionary. It’s the solution.

The Redemption Month; All Time Highs

April hinted at potential, May delivered.

Despite heavy macro headwinds, May opened with strength at $94K, before reclaiming the elusive $100K level for the first time since February. That milestone alone marked a psychological turning point, and the momentum that followed proved the bulls were firmly in control. Just weeks later, Bitcoin etched itself into the history books, printing a fresh all-time high just shy of $112K.

This wasn’t just another breakout, it was a statement.

And it came against a brutal backdrop: Q1 US GDP slowed more than expected, raising stagflation fears; Japanese 40-year bond yields surged to multi-decade highs; and a breach at Coinbase briefly rattled crypto sentiment. Tariff drama escalated once more, the US-China reprieve unravelled, the EU entered the fray, and in a bizarre legal twist, US courts blocked, then reinstated Trump-era tariffs.

Yet Bitcoin remained strong throughout the month and closed green.

Traditional indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, ended May in the green, reflecting a broader risk-on tone. Gold, by contrast, remained largely flat, showing neither fear nor fervour. But Bitcoin? Bitcoin stole the show. It didn’t just participate in the rally, it led it. Each pullback was met with a strong bid. Market structure remained bullish. The conviction was clear.

Those who stayed the course during April’s retrace to $74.5K, those who kept accumulating into the fear, were rewarded in full.

This isn’t just a bounce. This is a shift. Bitcoin isn’t merely reacting to global trends anymore, it’s starting to drive them. It’s playing both sides of the narrative: risk asset and store of value, speculation and safety. As it breaks price barriers, it’s also breaking category boundaries. May might well be remembered not just for a new all-time high — but for what that high represents.

Bitcoin 2025 Las Vegas: Political Signals, Macro Realities and the Institutional Infiltration

Stormrake featured at Bitcoin 2025 Las Vegas, with CEO Michael, COO Bisher, and Senior Trader Nick representing on the ground. This year’s conference marked a distinct tonal shift, not just from innovation to adoption, but from ideology to inevitability. The conversations were bigger, the booths flashier, and the guest list packed with influence.

The presence of key political figures — including Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and Vice President JD Vance — underscored how deeply Bitcoin has entered the political bloodstream. Whether in public speeches or quiet side conversations, it became evident that governments are no longer dismissing Bitcoin. They are quietly figuring out how to own it. As Bisher put it, "Bitcoin adoption isn’t just going to be driven by cypherpunks and tech libertarians. It’s going to involve governments, banks, corporations and legacy institutions."

What’s unfolding is a full-spectrum integration. The idea of Bitcoin as an outsider asset is evaporating. The institutions are no longer coming. They're already here, and they’re building. Yet retail is still in its early innings. "We need to see retail step in before TradFi scoops up all the cheap sats," Bisher added. With Bitcoin now trading above $100K, and still under 7% of the global population having interacted with the network, the message was clear: we’re still early, but not for long.

Amid the fanfare, Lyn Alden delivered what may have been the conference’s defining moment. Her speech methodically dismantled the long-term sustainability of US fiscal policy. The federal government’s debt service costs are ballooning, not shrinking, and every attempt to rein in deficits simply results in more debt issuance. “If they raise rates, they borrow more to pay the interest. If they cut rates, inflation accelerates,” she explained. “There’s no clean way out.”

Her conclusion was stark. The fiat system is in its final chapter. The debt spiral can’t be stopped, only inflated away. And that’s exactly why Bitcoin has to rise. It’s the only major monetary asset that can’t be printed, diluted or manipulated by central banks. As Lyn framed it: “We’ve entered the last phase of the fiat cycle.” Or, in her words: “Nothing stops this train.”

That line landed with weight — not just as a macro thesis, but as a call to prepare. When the train is speeding toward systemic debasement, the smartest move isn’t to ride it out. It’s to step off the tracks and opt into a parallel system that can’t be manipulated.

That perspective resonated across the Stormrake desk. Alden’s session was a wake-up call, backed by data, showing why Bitcoin is not just an opportunity — it’s a necessity. In a world increasingly defined by debt and debanking, Bitcoin’s neutral, borderless, incorruptible nature becomes not just compelling, but critical.

Stormrake’s team gathered dozens of insights from the event floor:

Debanking is a global issue. Everyone’s affected — from retail investors trying to access crypto to high-level political figures. Bitcoin provides a monetary escape hatch.
Utility is scaling fast. As Nick noted, Bitcoin is already being used for everything from loans to services like golf bookings. Real-world application is catching up to ideology.
Amongst altcoin debates, one thing is clear: “BTC is the best. Chuck out the rest.”
The Lightning Network has made serious strides, becoming a frictionless way to send and receive Bitcoin for everyday transactions.
Even among the most prominent Bitcoiners, such as Dorsey and Saylor, there’s still debate: is Bitcoin a store of value or a medium of exchange? Bisher summarised it best: “It’s both, and that’s what makes it so powerful.”

Bitcoin 2025 wasn’t just a celebration. It was an acceleration. The discussions aren’t theoretical anymore. They're tactical, political and strategic. What used to be ideology is now policy. And as we push deeper into the digital monetary age, it’s becoming clear that Bitcoin isn’t disrupting finance anymore. It’s redefining it.

What Could June Have in Store for Bitcoin?

May has wrapped with an 11.1% gain — a strong monthly close by historical standards, but somewhat underwhelming in light of the new all-time high near $112K just ten days ago. Bitcoin now hovers above $100K, technically fragile and flirting with key support. What looked like a powerful breakout has softened into a pullback, and the market tone has shifted from euphoric to cautious.

June now arrives as the final chapter in the first half of 2025. Bitcoin began the year at $93.5K, and many expected to see it well north of $120K by this point. That narrative is in flux. With price structure now forming lower highs and a confirmed lower low, Bitcoin has broken its bullish structure and is teetering near the edge of a larger correction.

The zone between $98K and $101K — aligning with the 55-day EMA and an unfilled fair value gap — is the critical battleground. If it fails, the current pullback could deepen and challenge the broader uptrend. But if bulls defend this area, they may have the foundation for a recovery rally.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/V2LrzdN8/

From a historical lens, June has delivered positive returns in 6 of the past 14 years, with an average return of 7.91%. If Bitcoin follows that average, a 7.91% gain from current levels would place it around $113K — back into all-time high territory and re-establishing bullish structure. Momentum above that level could clear the way to test $120K–122K, the next major psychological and structural resistance zone.

But June’s path won’t be defined by charts alone.

Macro Pressures and Trade Tensions

This month opens under the weight of intensifying trade disputes. On June 4, new US steel import duties are set to go live, marking a fresh escalation in tariff policy. The US Court of International Trade is also due to respond to the Trump-era Liberation tariffs appeal, with rulings expected between June 4–9. The Trump administration’s response will follow, potentially setting the tone for economic policy for the rest of the year — and possibly the election cycle.

Trump’s camp has already made it clear: if blocked, they’ll seek alternative channels to implement their trade agenda. This is less about specific policy details and more about broader uncertainty — a climate where risk assets like Bitcoin often thrive or dive, depending on the market’s risk appetite.

Meanwhile, the growing rift with China is expected to dominate the macro narrative into mid-month. Any escalation in tariffs or retaliatory rhetoric could inject volatility across global markets.

Breakdown or Breakout

June stands at a crossroads. Technically, Bitcoin is at risk of deeper correction, but it remains within reach of its recent highs. The key structural zone between $98K and $101K will be crucial — not just for short-term support, but for preserving the broader uptrend into the second half of the year.

Macro headwinds, including intensifying trade disputes and rising fiscal pressure, continue to shape the backdrop. The path from here may not be smooth — but the long-term direction of travel remains unchanged.

For long-term investors, these moments are less about market timing and more about strategic positioning. Pullbacks are not problems — they’re opportunities. Periods of weakness offer the chance to strengthen your allocation, reaffirm your thesis, and continue accumulating ahead of the next leg higher.

Conviction matters more than precision. The narrative is still unfolding — but the case for Bitcoin has never been clearer.

In the News:

US Credit Rating Downgraded for the First Time in History:

For the first time ever, the United States has lost its last remaining triple-A credit rating, with Moody’s citing its spiralling $37 trillion debt load and rising interest obligations. The downgrade reflects growing concern over Washington’s deteriorating fiscal discipline, noting that US debt levels are now significantly higher than those of similarly rated sovereigns. The implications are serious — higher borrowing costs for the government, increased rates across credit markets, and further strain on an already indebted global system. It’s another domino in the broader macro picture that reinforces why scarce, non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin continue to gain relevance.

Traditional Bitcoin Adoption Accelerates:

May wasn’t just about price discovery — it also marked a major leap forward in institutional Bitcoin adoption. Coinbase officially joined the S&P 500, becoming the first cryptocurrency company ever to be listed in the index. This means that every fund tracking the S&P now has indirect exposure to crypto, whether they realise it or not.

At the same time, corporates continued to stack. Gamestop disclosed a $500 million Bitcoin purchase, while Trump Media & Technology Group Corp announced plans to accumulate $2.5 billion worth. These balance sheet moves mirror a broader trend: sovereign and corporate treasuries are treating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. With the UAE and Pakistan also stepping in to establish national Bitcoin reserves, the message is clear — you're not bullish enough.

Australia Sparks Legal Debate on Bitcoin and Capital Gains Tax:

In a groundbreaking legal case, a Victorian magistrate challenged Bitcoin’s classification as property under Australian tax law, arguing instead that Bitcoin should be treated as money. Since a 2014 ruling, Bitcoin has been subject to capital gains tax (CGT) in Australia, similar to property. However, if Bitcoin were officially recognised as a foreign currency or legal tender, CGT would no longer apply — just as it doesn’t when converting between foreign fiat currencies. While the judge doesn’t have the authority to change legislation, the case has opened the door to a broader regulatory debate. It could eventually force higher courts — and lawmakers — to reconsider Bitcoin’s legal and financial status within Australia’s tax system.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in May 2025:

Bitcoin rose by 11.1% in May.
Ethereum stole the show, up 41.1% in May.
Tron flipping Cardano was the only change inside the top 10 this month.
The total crypto market cap grew by 10.31% to $3.23 trillion.
Hyperliquid was the dominant crypto outside of the top 10, outshining all majors and increasing by 64.4%.

Video of the month:

'Nothing Stops This Train' w/ Lyn Alden | Bitcoin 2025

Education: The Debt Spiral and Why Bitcoin Is the Lifeboat

The U.S. government is now operating inside a pressure cooker of its own making.

As of May, national debt has surged past $37 trillion, with interest payments now exceeding $1 trillion annually — more than defence or Medicare. The debt-to-GDP ratio has breached 133%, and the latest spending bills are set to expand deficits even further in the years ahead. These figures aren’t just big — they’re systemically unsustainable.

As Lyn Alden made clear at Bitcoin 2025, the US is no longer managing debt — it’s managing optics. The economic machine now runs on borrowed time and borrowed money. Every option leads back to the same outcome: a larger debt pile, and increasing dependence on currency debasement to keep the machine running.

“Raise interest rates and the government borrows more to cover the cost. Cut rates and inflation takes over. Either way, debt continues growing.” — Lyn Alden

The Fork in the Road: Control vs Reality

The US has made its choice — austerity is off the table. Instead of confronting the core issue, policymakers are focused on rigging demand for Treasuries and suppressing long-term yields to avoid a debt servicing crisis. Among the strategies being pursued:

Adjusting Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) rules to force banks to hold more Treasuries.
Proposing legislation that requires stablecoin issuers to back tokens with US government debt.
Promoting narratives that GDP can outpace debt growth — not through productivity, but through inflation-driven nominal gains.

In short, they're not solving the problem — they're masking it. The result is a deliberate currency debasement strategy, dressed up as financial engineering.

Bitcoin: Designed for This Environment

This macro backdrop is exactly what Bitcoin was designed for.

As trust in traditional monetary policy erodes, capital begins seeking alternatives. Bitcoin offers a monetary system outside of government control, one that cannot be inflated away or manipulated to serve political agendas. It is decentralised, scarce, and transparent — everything the fiat system increasingly is not.

Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset. It’s becoming a strategic allocation for institutions, corporations, and sovereigns alike. Its function is not just to grow wealth, but to preserve it — especially in a world where fiat assets guarantee long-term real losses.

“Bitcoin is doing what bonds used to do — protecting capital in an age of monetary dysfunction.”

Urgency in Rotation

Investors anchored to traditional assets — government bonds, cash deposits, unhedged real estate — are facing a new reality: their value is eroding in real terms. Monetary policy is no longer aimed at stability. It’s aimed at survival.

Smart capital is already rotating — not because of panic, but because of structural logic. When trust in fiat wavers and inflation eats at purchasing power, capital naturally moves into assets that are neutral, scarce and outside the system.

How Stormrake Can Help

At Stormrake, our mission is simple: to help people escape the failing fiat system and transition into a sound, sovereign monetary future through Bitcoin.

In a world burdened by unsustainable debt, policy dysfunction, and ongoing currency debasement, Bitcoin isn’t just an asset — it’s a way out. But accessing it with security, confidence, and strategy isn’t always easy. That’s where we come in.

We offer individuals, SMSFs, trusts, and corporate entities a direct avenue to gain Bitcoin exposure — with seamless execution, deep liquidity, and access to institutional-grade custody. Whether you're allocating for the first time or building on an existing position, Stormrake is built to serve serious investors with precision and security.

Bitcoin offers an escape — but more importantly, it offers a path forward. A chance to opt into a better system.

The system is shifting. The train is moving. Are you going to stay on — or step off and choose something better?

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: April

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 00:07:51 +1000

April Hints at Bitcoin’s True Potential

For the longest time, people have debated whether Bitcoin is a risk-on or risk-off asset. Is it a levered Nasdaq, or is it digital gold? What if I told you neither side is wrong — and that April, one of the wildest months in recent memory, proved Bitcoin is, in fact, both.

Foreshadowing Bitcoin’s Potential:

Bitcoin was created to be separate from traditional markets, institutions, and other centralised entities. Many liken it to gold, the original form of hard money — and for good reason. Bitcoin shares many properties with gold: both are scarce, inflation-proof, and serve as a store of value, making Bitcoin a new-age version of hard money — ‘Digital Gold’.

Throughout most of its lifespan, Bitcoin's price has moved independently from traditional stock markets, often following a four-year cycle aligned with the halving event. Looking back at the last 15 years, this cycle typically consists of three bullish years followed by one bear market year. This pattern has held true across the last three full cycles.

However, in recent years Bitcoin has gained institutional traction, and with that, a growing correlation to traditional assets — particularly risk-on markets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Many now refer to it as a levered version of the QQQ, or virtually another tech stock.

Over the last few years, we’ve seen Bitcoin react similarly to traditional markets during major global events — from the Covid pandemic to interest rate decisions and geopolitical shocks. Through the confusion that was April, Bitcoin acted as both. It rallied during a risk-on environment alongside the Nasdaq when the 90-day tariff pause was announced — Bitcoin rose 8%, and the Nasdaq jumped 13%. Then Easter ushered in a risk-off tone as the US 10-Year Note yield surged above 4.40%, and major equities like Nvidia and Amazon dropped 4.5% and 3.1% respectively. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continued its climb, and gold pressed on to new all-time highs.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/GhR3TInM/

This price behaviour was further reflected in cross-asset correlations — a measure of how closely two assets move together. In simple terms, a correlation of +1 means two assets move exactly the same way, –1 means they move in opposite directions, and 0 means there’s no relationship at all. A chart comparing Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq and gold shows that, as of April 28, BTC had a strong positive correlation with both the Nasdaq (+0.64) and gold (+0.70). Earlier in the month, Bitcoin had tracked equities closely, reaching a high correlation of +0.81 with the Nasdaq around April 1, but later dipped into negative territory before recovering. Its correlation with gold, meanwhile, flipped from negative (–0.29) to strongly positive over the same month. This dual correlation is rare — and highlights Bitcoin’s unique position: rallying alongside both risk assets and safe havens, proving it doesn’t neatly fit into traditional asset categories.

This past month has shown Bitcoin’s versatility more clearly than ever. Its ability to thrive in both risk-on and risk-off conditions marks a radical shift in how it trades — and perhaps how it's perceived. There is no other asset like it. Gold rallies in risk-off environments and during market uncertainty, while traditional stocks thrive in risk-on conditions. April proved that Bitcoin can behave like both — and rally in both. What we’re witnessing may just be the early signs of Bitcoin’s evolving role in global markets — no longer confined to a single narrative or asset class. As adoption grows and its use case continues to expand, Bitcoin’s ability to bridge the gap between growth and defensive assets could make it one of the most dynamic and adaptable financial instruments of the next decade.

The future is promising — and Bitcoin is only just getting started.

Stormrake at the Gold Coast Gold Conference:

This month, Stormrake Co-Founder and CEO Michael Milmeister presented at the Gold Coast Gold Conference, joining a timely conversation on hard money in an era of accelerating monetary instability. Our message was clear: Bitcoin and gold are not rivals — they’re allies in the same fight against a failing fiat system. Both are scarce, decentralised, and resilient to debasement. Far from being competitors, Bitcoin is the ultimate compliment to any gold bug’s portfolio — delivering the core properties of hard money, with the added advantages of portability, programmability, and a 24/7 global market.

The Most Confusing Month in Recent History:

We’ve just witnessed what’s probably the most confusing month since March 2020. April 2025 will go down in the history books — and be studied for years. Everyone expected volatility, especially with Trump setting a new precedent during his second stint in office.

The month kicked off with chaos. Trump’s Liberation Day was a shock to all, with tariffs slapped on 185 countries — each receiving a minimum of 10%, and China hit hardest at 34% (just the beginning for them). Markets tumbled. Over the next week, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq entered bear market territory (a 20% correction from their peaks), and Bitcoin dropped from $88K to a low of $74.5K.

At this stage, panic was everywhere. Fake tariff headlines triggered 5% intraday swings in the S&P 500. China began retaliating. Sentiment hit multi-year lows. Gold surged to new all-time highs day after day, while the S&P 500 rivalled the worst periods of Covid, the Global Financial Crisis, and the dot-com bubble in terms of four-day drawdowns. Investor confidence collapsed. The S&P 500’s Fear and Greed Index hit a reading of 3. Crypto markets also slipped into extreme fear — yet Bitcoin held above February’s low of 10.

People were chanting that it’s over — the bear market is back. Bitcoin’s headed for the $60Ks, maybe even the $50Ks. But how often are the majority right in predicting market direction? Not very…

At that moment, Buffett’s timeless quote should’ve been ringing in every investor’s ears: “Be greedy when others are fearful.” For Stormrake clients who acted on that, the reward came fast. We emphasised the opportunity in this down period — and it didn’t last long. Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause, and risk-on markets snapped back. Equities climbed out of bear market territory, and Bitcoin reclaimed $80K.

After rebounding off the $74.5K low on April 8, Bitcoin entered a tight 8-day consolidation phase between $83K–$86K, reflecting market indecision as traders processed the tariff headlines and macro mess. This base formation set the stage for the post-Easter breakout, where Bitcoin surged more than 11% in just 2.5 days — a risk-off rally that defied broader equity weakness. From the April low to its late-month high, Bitcoin traded in a 28.63% range — one of the widest monthly spreads in over a year, underscoring April’s extreme volatility.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/25zfIkkg/

While battling China, Trump also reignited a personal feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell — a one-sided affair, with Trump hurling online abuse and demanding immediate rate cuts, while Powell stood firm, reiterating that policy decisions would remain data-driven.

After its worst first quarter in years, Bitcoin is now up 15% in April and 12% since Liberation Day, despite all the chaos. Meanwhile, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain down since April 2. Gold is up 5%.

All of this reinforces Bitcoin’s versatility — thriving in risk-on and risk-off environments alike — and offers a glimpse of what’s to come.

In the News:

Mantra (OM) Collapse:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/K6NaBPac/

Not all headlines were positive. Mantra (OM) — the 19th largest crypto project and leading Real World Asset (RWA) protocol — collapsed in under 12 hours. At midnight, OM was trading at $6.50 with a market cap near $6B. By midday, it had plunged to $1.00, wiping out $5B in value — a staggering 90% drop. Many red flags had been ignored…

90-Day Tariff Pause:

We touched on the bullish impact of the 90-day tariff pause — here’s a deeper take. Tariffs remain in place. All countries still face a 10% minimum. Canada and Mexico are still at 25%, and China is at 145%. Additional 25% tariffs still apply on imports of autos, steel, and aluminium. This pause doesn’t remove tariffs — just delays the full return of Liberation Day levels. Unless agreements are reached, the full tariff regime may return in late July.

Australian Super Funds Hacked:

Some of Australia’s largest superannuation funds were hit by a major cyberattack this month. Affected: AustralianSuper, Hostplus, REST, Australian Retirement Trust, and Insignia — collectively managing over $700B. Pension-phase members were targeted, login access suspended, and mass panic followed.

This reinforces why we advocate for holding Bitcoin in your Self-Managed Super Fund — take control of your retirement, don’t leave it in the hands of third parties.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in April 2025:

Bitcoin rose 15.1% in April
Ethereum struggled, ending the month down 2% despite Bitcoin’s strength
The top 10 coins and their rankings remained unchanged from March
Memecoins led the charge — 3 of the top 5 performers in the top 100 were memecoins
After a 50% gain in April, Sui is now just three spots away from breaking into the top 10

Video of the month:

'What is Hard Money?' - Michael Milmeister, Stormrake

Education: Bitcoin’s Correlation to M2 Money Supply

The most important driver of long-term asset performance isn’t just hype or headlines—it’s liquidity. And the most reliable proxy for global liquidity is the M2 money supply. M2 includes cash, checking deposits, and near-money like savings—essentially the fuel for risk-on behaviour in markets. When M2 expands, it signals the presence of excess capital. That capital doesn’t sit still—it searches for returns, first moving into equities and real estate, then into higher-beta assets like crypto. When M2 contracts, this process reverses: risk assets draw down as liquidity dries up.

Historically, Bitcoin’s price has shown a clear lagging correlation with global M2 by approximately 70–90 days. This lag is a function of capital rotation. Institutional money doesn’t immediately flow from new liquidity into crypto—it first works through treasuries, credit, then equities, and finally into digital assets. This is why crypto is often the tail-end beneficiary of monetary expansion, but also why it tends to outperform when the liquidity tide is truly rising.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Eo0QuJ4o/

The chart above brings this relationship to life. The yellow line represents global M2 (shifted forward 90 days); the candles represent BTC/USD.

M2 peaked in November 2024—Bitcoin topped out in mid-January 2025, almost 80 days later.
M2 bottomed in late January; Bitcoin followed with its local low in mid-April.
M2 has since surged higher—suggesting the next move for Bitcoin could already be underway.

This pattern aligns with previous macro cycles. During the 2020–2021 bull market, M2 in the United States grew by over 25% YoY, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rise from $10K to $69K. That growth was fuelled by quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus—both of which drove an enormous surge in monetary aggregates. As soon as the Fed began tapering and M2 growth turned negative in late 2022, risk assets faltered.

We’re now seeing subtle signs of a shift back toward expansion. The Federal Reserve has begun re injecting liquidity into the system—through reverse repo declines, balance sheet management, and increased Treasury issuance supported by indirect monetisation. Meanwhile, the ECB and BOJ remain accommodative, helping drive global M2 higher once again.

It’s not just theory—it’s the maths of the macro cycle.

If history rhymes, we are in the early stages of Bitcoin’s next major leg. With M2 having bottomed in January and already climbing steadily, Bitcoin could track higher into late Q2 and Q3, if the 70–90 day lag remains consistent.

This framework offers more than a narrative—it provides a data-driven lens for anticipating crypto market direction. It underscores the importance of watching liquidity flows rather than price alone. Traders may focus on patterns, but macro investors track the current. Right now, that current is turning.

Liquidity leads. Bitcoin follows. It’s a proven formula—fade it at your own risk.

Memes of the Month

Written By Alexandar Artis

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Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: March

Sun, 30 Mar 2025 21:22:16 +1100

Bitcoin Becomes Strategic

Bitcoin didn’t just move sideways in March—it moved up the geopolitical ladder. It became more than a hedge or investment. It became strategic.

March: Bitcoin Gets the Government Stamp

The month began with low expectations. After February’s drag, few were predicting anything major. But then came Washington.

Just two days into March, Bitcoin made history—posting its first-ever $10,000 daily candle. The surge followed a pair of posts by President Donald Trump on Truth Social, where he publicly acknowledged Bitcoin, along with Ethereum, Ripple, Solana, and Cardano, as part of a proposed Strategic Crypto Reserve. For many in the Bitcoin space, it was surreal: the US president naming digital assets as strategic considerations on a public stage.

Social media erupted, and the price responded. But this wasn’t just another rally. It marked the first time Bitcoin had moved not because of market cycles or ETF news—but because of political messaging. The asset was now firmly entangled in policy.

And that was only the beginning.

A couple days later, Trump signed an executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR)—making Bitcoin an official reserve asset held by the United States. The reserve would be built using 200,000 BTC already in government possession, mostly from seizures and forfeitures, with a formal commitment to retain, not sell.

This move didn’t come with a flashy buying program or massive market intervention. But it came with something more important: recognition. The world’s most powerful economy had just placed Bitcoin alongside oil, gold, and foreign currencies in its strategic framework.

For years, Bitcoin had been the outsider. Suddenly, it was sitting at the table.

April: The Month Tariffs Go Live

While March was about policy, April brings pressure. On 2 April, reciprocal tariffs between the US and potentially 25 other countries are set to go live—marking the official start of what many are calling the next global trade war.

For markets, this isn’t just about trade—it’s about what follows. Tariffs raise costs, strain supply chains, and often feed inflation. And in an already fragile global economy, this could be the spark that reignites a broader volatility cycle.

Bitcoin now sits in the middle of that conversation. Will it behave like a risk asset and falter under global pressure? Or will it rise as a hedge, a tool for sovereign resilience, just as the SBR narrative suggests?

April will begin to answer those questions.

Breaking down the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve:

The details of the SBR matter—and they tell a story of gradual but meaningful integration.

200,000 BTC now held as a reserve asset
Valued at roughly $17.6B, these coins will not be sold
No new market purchases are authorised (yet), but future expansion is on the table
Other seized cryptocurrencies—like ETH and XRP—are being held in a separate stockpile

This isn't a speculative play. It's a signal: that Bitcoin has utility beyond investment. It's now being treated like energy reserves, precious metals, and other national stores of value.

And while this move doesn’t change Bitcoin’s fundamentals, it changes the context in which those fundamentals exist. It elevates the asset’s standing—especially as nations start to weigh their own positions on digital sovereignty and reserve diversification.

What Happens Next?

The SBR doesn't immediately move markets. But it reshapes the long-term game. If the US is willing to hold Bitcoin as a matter of strategy, how long until others follow?

Meanwhile, the tariffs going live in April create a fresh wave of uncertainty. Global growth expectations are being revised down. Inflation risks are back in the headlines. And monetary policy—once expected to ease—may have to stay tight for longer.

That’s where Bitcoin re-enters the conversation. Not for its price today, but for what it represents in a world where traditional levers—money printing, debt, central bank intervention—are under more scrutiny than ever.

In the News:

Transitory tariffs – Powell:

Earlier this month, markets eagerly awaited Jerome Powell’s press conference following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates. Not because of the rate itself, but to hear his views on Trump’s tariffs that had been shaking the markets. Powell was surprisingly dovish in tone and labelled Trump’s tariffs as ‘transitory’ and unlikely to impact inflation in the long run. This suggests the main source of uncertainty may not last long—so this period should be seen as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin and other assets.

Australian Federal Budget

The annual budget report has been released, and a major threat to superannuation is being proposed: a potential tax on unrealised gains on assets held within superannuation for those with balances over $3 million. Whilst Bitcoin in SMSFs isn’t immune to these changes, the continuous government interventions in what was introduced as a stable, long-term vehicle highlight the importance of becoming self-sovereign—and Bitcoin is the doorway to doing so.

War Updates: Russia vs Ukraine, Middle East Conflict

March 2025 escalated tensions as Russia’s deadly strikes in Ukraine intensified, ceasefire talks with Trump stalled, and Ukrainian President Zelensky faced a dramatic exit from the White House mid-month, signaling U.S. frustration with Kyiv’s demands, whilst no progress has been made in the Middle East. Global markets shuddered, with oil leaping $3-$5 per barrel, lifting energy and defense stocks, yet the S&P 500 plunged 6.3% for the month. Gold surged 8%, soaring as the safe haven bid intensified amid geopolitical chaos and inflationary pressures.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in March 2025:

Bitcoin falls 3.33% in March
Ethereum falls 20% to below $2,000 for the first time since November 2023
Tron returns to the top 10, displacing STETH after Ethereum’s poor month
World Liberty Financial set to launch its own USD stablecoin ‘USD1’
Total crypto market cap loses 3.11%, down to $2.66T

Video of the month:

' Is Bitcoin flourishing or crashing under Trump? ~ A Chat with Bisher from Stormrake'

Education: Why Bitcoin is a Hedge Against Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Imagine a world where your savings lose value not because you spent them—but because someone else decided to tweak the system. Whether it’s money printing, reckless government spending, or political chaos, the value of your money is often at the mercy of decisions you didn’t make.

That’s the problem Bitcoin was built to solve.

Now, in an era of trade wars, ballooning deficits, and inflation risk, Bitcoin is gaining new attention—not just as an investment, but as a hedge. A digital shield against bad policy.

Let’s break it down.

Why Was Bitcoin Created in the First Place?

Bitcoin launched in 2009 during the fallout of the global financial crisis. Banks were failing, governments were bailing them out, and people were losing trust in the system.

The very first line of Bitcoin’s whitepaper sets the tone:

“A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”

Bitcoin was designed to cut out the middlemen—banks, central banks, governments. It’s decentralised, meaning no single entity controls it. Instead, it’s run by code and secured by a global network of users.

It’s like a digital piggy bank that only you can access, with no one able to change the rules after the fact.

Free from Government Control

Bitcoin operates outside of traditional financial systems. No central bank or government can change its code or manipulate its supply.

That makes it powerful. In a world where most currencies are controlled by central authorities, Bitcoin stands alone as a self sovereign form of money—neutral, borderless, and censorship-resistant.

It gives individuals the ability to opt out of local monetary regimes and hold wealth in a digital asset that can’t be inflated away or politically weaponised.

Sovereign: Escaping Monetary Expansion

When governments want to stimulate the economy or fund massive spending, they often “print money”—increasing the supply of fiat currency. That dilutes the value of every dollar in circulation.

Bitcoin doesn’t play that game.

Only 21 million BTC will ever exist. That number is hard-coded and cannot be changed. No central bank, no emergency meeting, no stimulus bill can alter that.

So when money printing ramps up—like it could in response to the 2025 US–global tariff battle—Bitcoin becomes attractive as a scarce digital asset: a financial lifeboat in a sea of endless liquidity.

Protection from Currency Devaluation

When a nation’s currency drops in value—because of inflation, trade wars, or political instability—citizens often lose purchasing power, especially on imports or travel. That’s currency devaluation.

Bitcoin isn’t tied to any one country or central bank. It exists globally, and its value is determined by open markets—not national policy.

In places like Venezuela or Turkey, people turned to Bitcoin as their local currencies collapsed. In 2025, similar concerns are bubbling again in places like Argentina, and even in developed markets facing inflation shocks.

Bitcoin offers a way to opt out.

Hedge Against Political Risk and Fiscal Mismanagement

Bad policy isn’t just theoretical—it hits wallets. Whether it’s rising national debt, aggressive taxation, or government overreach, there’s always the risk that political decisions will erode the value of your savings.

Bitcoin is a hedge against all forms of government overreach.

From war in Eastern Europe to Australia’s super tax changes, we’re seeing more people diversify into Bitcoin as a way to insulate themselves from poor fiscal decisions. It’s portable, self-custodied, and completely detached from political agendas.

In a world where trust in governments is declining, Bitcoin becomes more than just a hedge—it’s a plan B.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin started as a rebel idea to ditch banks and give power back to people. Free from government control, immune to money printing, and resilient to political missteps—it’s a hedge when the system starts to crack.It’s not perfect (prices can swing wildly), but for those worried about monetary and fiscal chaos, Bitcoin’s a simple, bold answer: control your own cash, no strings attached.

Memes of the Month

Written by Alexandar Artis

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

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The Rake Review: February

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 19:30:37 +1100

Trade Wars Dominate the Month

February was the month that finally broke the multi month long consolidation period. We had seen Bitcoin establish a broad range between $90k-$110k since December. January was able to weather the storm of some wild catalysts that would usually break it out of the range, but February was not able to sustain its events…

February: The Month That Finally Broke the Trend

Opening the month at $102K, fresh off all-time highs set in January, February was filled with volatility. Trade Wars kicked things off—Trump’s 25% tariffs on major trade partners sent ripples across all markets, both traditional and crypto, pulling Bitcoin below $100K. After an initial pause in tariffs provided some respite, a fresh round of reciprocal tariffs was announced. By the time the third tariff wave hit, markets appeared to build some form of immunity, as the impact on volatility gradually faded.

Following this, Bitcoin established an even tighter range of $95.7K–$100K, holding for 18 days without a daily close outside this zone. While ETF flows stagnated and Bitcoin’s buying interest hit multi-month lows, several key events unfolded.

The Death of the Memecoin Casino

Binance entered the memecoin game, launching its own ecosystem on the BNB blockchain. This triggered a massive influx of funds bridged over from Solana to BSC, in anticipation of a fresh wave of meme speculation. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) then posted a picture of his dog, ‘Broccoli,’ which immediately spawned an army of Broccoli-themed meme coins, dominating the space.

The memecoin casino seemed like it was running out of steam—until the final nail in the coffin arrived: LIBRA, one of the largest rug pulls in crypto history.

Argentinian President Javier Milei endorsed a memecoin, claiming proceeds would support small businesses in Argentina.
The token hit a $4.6 billion market cap before insiders dumped $100M, leading to a mass capitulation.
Within hours, LIBRA lost $4.4 billion, becoming one of the fastest collapses in memecoin history.

The fallout was devastating—not just for Milei, with impeachment calls growing, but for the Solana ecosystem, which had thrived on meme speculation. As investors fled, SOL crashed 40% in February, just a month after hitting an all-time high in January.

Key Events in Between

CPI data – Higher-than-expected inflation confirmed economic worries and led to heightened volatility
FTX Repayments – Long-awaited refunds disappointed many due to controversial valuation methods.
Bybit Hack ($1.4B Stolen) – The biggest crypto hack in history, linked to North Korean group Lazarus. Yet, Bitcoin held its range, thanks to Bybit’s damage control.

Bitcoin was seemingly set to close another month within its range—until Trade Wars reignited.

The Breakdown: Trade Wars Escalate

Trump doubled down, confirming paused tariffs would proceed, breaking Bitcoin’s range. BTC fell below $90K for the first time since November. The market barely had time to digest the news before Trump announced another set of tariffs, this time on Europe.

European tariffs (25%) matched those on Canada & Mexico.
Bitcoin plunged to $79K—a three-month low.

Now, the long-term structure is under threat. Will March bring a recovery, or will the tariffs break Bitcoin’s structure entirely?

Is It Over?

Going into March, sentiment is at multi-year lows. Bitcoin is down almost 30% from its all-time high set in January, altcoins are struggling to find a bid, and tariffs are going live. Is it over?

Turn your attention to the chart below. Comparing this bull run to the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin rallied to $64K, consolidated, and then retraced almost 50% in two weeks. Many believed the cycle was over, and capitulated. Just eight weeks later, Bitcoin took off from its base at the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 55EMA, setting new all-time highs and triggering one of the most memorable altseasons.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/KMoF1gzS/

This cycle, we just went through a 13-week consolidation before starting this 30% retracement. Bitcoin is now approaching the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 55EMA around $73K–$75K. This level is further reinforced by last cycle’s all-time high, which acted as strong resistance throughout the eight-month consolidation period in 2023. Now flipped into support, this level becomes a high-probability bounce zone.

If Bitcoin is indeed following the 2021 blueprint, we should anticipate a bounce off $73K–$75K, setting up a move to new all-time highs later in the year. Rather than panicking and selling at a key technical level, if these levels are hit, they should be met with buying, as they represent golden opportunities.

2025’s Freaky Fridays:

This can’t be the start to the year that anyone envisioned, especially with Trump taking office. But Fridays have become a pattern, repeatedly marking major events that shift the market.

A major event has occurred on five of the last seven Fridays, starting just days before Trump was sworn into office for the second time. Below is the timeline of these Freaky Fridays:

Friday 17th Jan – $TRUMP token launch (igniting the memecoin casino).
Friday 24th Jan – DeepSeek AI crash.
Friday 31st Jan – Trump announces first tariffs (Trade War begins).
Friday 14th Feb – LIBRA rug pull, one of the largest in history.
Friday 21st Feb – Bybit hacked for $1.4 billion, the largest hack in crypto history.
Friday 28th Feb – Bitcoin falls below $80K for the first time since November.

Each event has had a bearish impact on the market. The question now is—will March bring more Freaky Fridays?

In the News:

Solana Unlock:

In the coming days, a massive Solana unlock will take place, with 11.2 million SOL (2.24% of total supply) being distributed to the Solana Foundation, presale participants, and more. Valued at $1.58 billion, this event is adding pressure to Solana, which is already struggling following the collapse of the memecoin casino.

The sell-off in anticipation of the unlock has already been playing out, but the question remains—how will recipients react? If the majority of unlocked tokens are held, Solana could see a price rebound. However, if recipients sell their tokens, further downside is inevitable.

Sonic: What Has Caused the Revival?

Sonic (formerly Fantom) has bucked the market trend, trading positive for the month, up 12%. During February, Sonic hit a low of $0.31 before climbing to $0.99 in just two weeks.

This price appreciation is largely attributed to two key factors. First, the SEC dropped its appeal against a ruling that prevented it from regulating DeFi, securing DeFi’s independence from SEC oversight. This is a massive win for Sonic, which has built itself as the home of DeFi.

Secondly, Sonic’s on-chain performance has been outstanding over the past two months. It has outperformed nearly every major blockchain across key metrics, attracting developers and users looking for an alternative to Solana. With the Solana Casino closing, these developers need a new home, and Sonic is proving to be that home.

Source: https://app.debridge.finance/

Ukraine vs Russia: Is the War Coming to an End?

President Trump has suggested that, if handled well, the Russia-Ukraine war could end in weeks. The key? A US-Ukraine minerals deal, which would tap into Ukraine’s vast lithium and rare earth resources. This agreement could provide Ukraine with economic leverage while also giving the US a strategic advantage.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in February 2025:

Bitcoin ends February down 22.6%.
Ethereum drops 36% in February, struggling to hold above $2,000 USD
BNB flips SOL as the Memecoin Casino collapses.
XRP falls to fourth place in crypto market cap rankings.
Total crypto market cap drops 25% to $2.57 trillion.

Video of the month:

'Will Trump's Tariffs Tank the Crypto Markets?'

Stormrake x BTR x Liberty Bullion Australia Tour:

After the success of the first BTR Roadshow, we’re excited to announce that we’re heading back on tour with BeatTheReset and Liberty Bullion for the ‘Back to the Future Tour’! The second instalment of your favourite trio is coming to a major Australian city near you. Running from March 15–23, secure your tickets today to ensure you don’t miss out!

Get Your Tickets HERE

Education: Understanding Market Sentiment

The past month has been a true test of market sentiment, particularly for those new to crypto and experiencing their first bull market. Sentiment plays a critical role in market cycles, influencing both price action and investor behaviour. There are several key metrics used to gauge the market’s current emotional state and what stage of the cycle we’re in. Understanding these indicators can be extremely valuable in making informed decisions.

The three main metrics we’ll cover are:

Fear and Greed Index
Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin Popularity

Fear and Greed Index:

As the name suggests, the Fear and Greed Index measures the collective sentiment of market participants. Warren Buffett’s famous advice—"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"—perfectly applies here.

The index has five stages: Extreme Fear, Fear, Neutral, Greed, and Extreme Greed. When prices are falling and sentiment is bearish, the market typically enters Fear or Extreme Fear territory, which often signals buying opportunities.

Currently, the index sits at 10, the lowest reading since May 2022, when the Luna collapse sent Bitcoin below $20K. Historically, extreme fear readings have correlated with market bottoms, whereas extreme greed readings tend to occur near cycle tops.

For example, on January 22nd, shortly after Bitcoin hit its most recent all-time high at $106K, the Fear & Greed Index registered a reading of 84, indicating extreme greed. While markets can remain in extreme readings for extended periods, these moments help traders identify potential reversals.

The best strategy? Accumulating during extreme fear has historically yielded the greatest returns, while periods of extreme greed may signal a time to start reducing exposure.

Bitcoin Dominance:

Bitcoin dominance refers to the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap that is made up of Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin dominance is at 60%, meaning Bitcoin accounts for 60% of the total crypto market’s value.

When Bitcoin dominance is high, it indicates that investors are favouring Bitcoin over altcoins. This can happen for two main reasons:

In early bull market stages, Bitcoin typically outperforms altcoins following halving events.
During market uncertainty, investors move away from altcoins and into Bitcoin, seeking its safety in the crypto space.

On the other hand, when Bitcoin dominance is low (typically below 45%), it suggests the market is in a risk-on phase, where speculation runs high, and altcoins gain more traction. This often marks the beginning of an altseason, where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Popularity:

This may seem like an unusual metric, but it’s one of the most powerful sentiment indicators. Bitcoin popularity can be measured by:

Media coverage – Is Bitcoin in the headlines every day?
Social conversations – Are your friends, family, and even distant relatives talking about Bitcoin?
Google search trends – Are Bitcoin and crypto-related searches increasing?
X (Twitter) engagement – Are posts about Bitcoin euphoric or pessimistic?

In bear markets, Bitcoin is rarely discussed in mainstream media. Pundits call it "dead", skeptics claim the Ponzi is over, and crypto Twitter turns into a ghost town. At family dinners, you might even hear friends or relatives mocking crypto investments.

However, during bull markets, the opposite happens. Bitcoin dominates financial news, traditional finance figures suddenly turn bullish, and everyone—from taxi drivers to distant cousins—has a price prediction. Crypto Twitter becomes euphoric, with people posting wild all-time high forecasts.

At Stormrake, we use these three key metrics—Fear and Greed, Bitcoin Dominance, and Bitcoin Popularity—to gauge market sentiment and conditions. Understanding these indicators can help traders and investors navigate market cycles effectively and position themselves for the best risk-reward opportunities.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.