Stormrake - Insights #Bitcoins 16th Birthday

Bitcoin Reclaims $100K: All-Time High Within Reach

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 14:07:37 +1100

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Seven days into the new year, Bitcoin has delivered consistent positive daily returns, officially reclaiming the $100k level. In doing so, Bitcoin has flipped every market structure back in favor of the bulls and likely completed its first bull market correction. Our attention now turns to Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) of $108.4k.

The recent correction, which began following Trump’s victory in early November, marked the first significant, prolonged pullback of this cycle. Lasting 13 days, Bitcoin dipped to a low of $91.5k on December 30. During this period, skepticism was rife. Many anticipated Bitcoin breaking below $90k, with some even speculating that a head-and-shoulders pattern could drive it as low as $80k.

As Bitcoin often does, it defied expectations. Rising 12% from its December 30 low, the recovery has sidelined many of those who doubted its resilience. The bearish structure has been decisively nullified, with Bitcoin regaining bullish momentum across all timeframes.

Now just 6% away from its ATH, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to test and potentially surpass this milestone. The upcoming inauguration of President Trump, less than two weeks away, is expected to heighten volatility and enthusiasm, providing an ideal catalyst for another record-breaking move.

While Bitcoin has led the charge, the altcoin market has followed suit with impressive gains. Notable performers like Solana and Dogecoin have surged 17% and 25%, respectively, over the past week. Additionally, projects like Sui and Cetus, which we spotlighted yesterday, continue to make waves.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($25.36)

Hyperliquid is a decentralised perpetual exchange built on its proprietary layer 1 blockchain. HYPE captured significant attention in December, rocketing into the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market cap. Currently trading at $25.36, HYPE has gained over 600% since its November 29 low and briefly reached an ATH of $35.05.

A deep dive into this promising project is in the works—stay tuned by subscribing to our Morning Note and Thunder Trading updates so you don’t miss it.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/23c3liVI/

Bitcoin has leveraged its bullish momentum to reclaim $100k and is now approaching the next key level at $102.6k. This level, which has alternated as support and resistance in recent weeks, is expected to play a pivotal role again. Should Bitcoin break through, the next target is the new monthly resistance CPR (green dotted line) at $104.4k.

In December, a similar move saw Bitcoin reach this level, set a new ATH, and then correct. On the way up, the 21 and 55 EMAs will provide robust support, aiding Bitcoin’s progress toward $108.4k.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 6 Jan: $ +229.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/gRdaxrgG/

Ethereum started the year strongly against Bitcoin but has retraced nearly 4% in the last two days relative to BTC. Overnight, ETH reached a critical resistance level at $3,724 before experiencing a slight pullback. The 21 EMA has stepped in as support, maintaining Ethereum’s upward trajectory.

Key resistance remains unchanged at $3,724, while the 21 and 55 EMAs are expected to act as support, providing a foundation for potential gains in the coming days.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 6 Jan: $ N/A Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid Market Momentum: The Low Is In?

Mon, 06 Jan 2025 15:19:10 +1100

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Bitcoin appears to be consolidating above $98,000, potentially setting up for a return above the psychological $100K level. With just two weeks until the Trump inauguration, Bitcoin has climbed 8% from its recent low of $91.5K, set a week ago.

Currently, Bitcoin is on track for its sixth consecutive positive daily close. The last time we saw such a streak was following the U.S. election in November, where Bitcoin recorded seven straight green days, rallying from $67K to $89K—a 30% surge without significant pullbacks. While this current rally hasn't mirrored the same explosive price action, the sustained bullish momentum is encouraging, especially after Bitcoin flirted with breaking below $90K again.

There is a strong likelihood that Bitcoin has found its short-term low in this correction. However, we are not entirely out of the woods yet. Bitcoin needs to create a higher high above $100K to fully confirm a bullish market structure. In the meantime, this upward momentum has sparked bullish sentiment across the broader crypto market, with several altcoins experiencing notable price action.

For example:

Sui (SUI) has achieved another all-time high and now trades above $5.
Cetus (CETUS) has surged 50% in just four days.
Ethereum (ETH) has displayed relative strength versus Bitcoin, outperforming it by 5% since the start of the year.

Stormrake Spotlight: Fantom (FTM) ($0.83)

Fantom is currently consolidating above the $0.80 level, forming a solid base for a potential breakout. This behavior is reminiscent of its price action in early December, where it established support at $1 before rallying to $1.40. If Bitcoin confirms its bullish momentum and breaks back above $100K, FTM is well-positioned to follow suit, potentially returning to its December highs.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/qhdEaesN/

Bitcoin has entered a period of consolidation after its move above $98K, encountering resistance at $98.7K while finding support near $97.5K. This consolidation phase is a healthy development, allowing BTC to gather momentum before its next upward leg. Key technical indicators to monitor include the 21-EMA and 55-EMA, both acting as crucial support levels. A sustained move above these supports could pave the way for Bitcoin’s advance to the next significant psychological and technical level of $100K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 5 Jan: $ N/A million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/f7JI6TjD/

Ethereum continues its bullish trajectory, targeting the next resistance level at $3,724. After successfully breaking above all three middle CPR levels, ETH is maintaining strong upward momentum. The 21-EMA has been a critical support level throughout this rally and is expected to remain so as Ethereum climbs higher. Traders should watch this level closely for signs of continued strength.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 5 Jan: $ N/A Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

Bitcoin’s consolidation above $98K is a constructive signal for bulls, with the potential for further upside in both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Altcoins like Fantom, Sui, and Cetus are already capitalising on this momentum, and Ethereum is displaying promising relative strength. The market’s next significant test will be Bitcoin reclaiming $100K, a move that could reignite broader confidence and drive further gains across the board.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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2025's Bullish Start Gains Momentum

Mon, 06 Jan 2025 15:07:51 +1100

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Bitcoin is off to a strong start in 2025, marking three consecutive green days and setting the stage for what could be a highly bullish January. This momentum is supported not only by historical trends but also by significant upcoming events, including Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th (US time).

Historically, January has been a favorable month for Bitcoin, with positive returns in 65% of cases since 2011. Only five Januarys have ended in the red, making the odds of a bullish January 2025 particularly promising. The month has already opened with a 5% gain in Bitcoin’s price, negating the bearish structure that previously threatened to push BTC below $90,000. However, Bitcoin still needs to break and hold above the critical $100,000 level to confirm a sustained bullish trend. While challenges remain, recent price action is undoubtedly encouraging.

The early-year price action has also triggered a decline in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), an exciting development for altcoin enthusiasts. BTC.D recently set a lower high, invalidating its bullish structure and approaching key support levels. Currently at 57% and falling, dominance could revisit its recent low of 55%. If this level is breached, it may signal a bearish trend in Bitcoin dominance—a classic indicator of an impending altseason.

When BTC.D last hovered around 55% (December 10), several altcoins saw significant breakouts. For example, Sui and Ondo reached new all-time highs, while Fantom hit its recent peak. A return to these levels could catalyse similar price action, potentially propelling major altcoins to new heights.

Stormrake Spotlight: Fantom (FTM) ($0.85)

Along with the rest of the market, FTM has rallied 9% over the last 24 hours and is now up more than 20% since our recent callout. Those who were active and bought the dip have already been rewarded and are well-positioned for potentially greater returns. FTM needs a 75% move to reclaim its December high and over 300% to reach its all-time high. For those who believe in FTM (or Sonic), this setup feels like a no-brainer. Don’t be discouraged by the recent 20% rally from its low; instead, focus on the significant growth potential ahead.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/IUfjxFk2/

Bitcoin has flipped its short-term structure back to bullish, continuing its rally while using the 21 EMA as a reliable support level. This setup positions BTC to retest the $100,000 level, though some resistance is expected between $99,400 and $100,000, where the CPR zone aligns with the psychological $100,000 threshold. On pullbacks, the 21 EMA is likely to act as a key support level.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 3 Jan: $ N/A million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/C0p11pyR/

Ethereum continues to demonstrate breakout strength, surpassing a significant resistance level at $3,557, which had previously acted as a major barrier. This level has now been flipped into support, setting ETH up for a potential move toward its next key resistance at $3,724. Notably, ETH has outperformed BTC over the past two days—a trend worth monitoring closely.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 3 Jan: $ N/A Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin's Sweet 16: A Milestone of Resilience and Adoption

Fri, 03 Jan 2025 10:43:51 +1100

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Sixteen years ago, history was made. The first Bitcoin block, known as the "Genesis Block," was mined by an anonymous user under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. This monumental event set the foundation for the Bitcoin Network and ushered in a new era of decentralised digital money. At the time, Bitcoin held no monetary value and existed purely as a curiosity within niche cryptography communities. Transactions were experimental, driven by hobbyists exchanging BTC for fun rather than financial gain.

In March 2010, user "SmokeTooMuch" famously tried to auction 10,000 BTC for $50 but found no buyers—a stark contrast to Bitcoin's valuation today.

Since its inception, Bitcoin has become one of the most polarising assets in history. It has been celebrated, criticised, banned, and even dismissed as a passing fad. Yet, it remains unmatched as the highest-returning asset of all time.

Bitcoin has faced relentless challenges: government crackdowns, skepticism from traditional financial institutions, the collapse of major exchanges, and association with illicit platforms like Silk Road. Despite this, Bitcoin has emerged stronger after every battle.

Governments once intent on banning Bitcoin are now racing to be among the first to integrate it, with some even building Bitcoin reserves. Once-skeptical financial giants like BlackRock are launching Bitcoin ETFs. The narrative has shifted—what was once dismissed as a "scam" is now being embraced by some of the most influential players in finance.

Despite its significant growth, Bitcoin is still in its infancy. As of December, only 6.8% of the global population owns any form of cryptocurrency. Compare this to stock market participation: 55% of Americans, 40% of Australians, and 40% of Britons are invested in equities.

Sixteen years is a mere blip in the lifespan of an asset class. Further adoption by governments, institutions, and individuals will likely push Bitcoin’s price to new heights. While short-term volatility can be daunting, history has shown that long-term holders are often handsomely rewarded. The opportunity is still ripe—don’t be left behind.

Stormrake Spotlight: Fantom (FTM) ($0.77)

Fantom has experienced a modest 4% pullback after peaking at $0.86 overnight. This correction is healthy and provides an excellent opportunity to dollar-cost average (DCA) and improve entry positions. Such pullbacks are natural in strong upward trends and pave the way for continued growth.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/NYQNLhCi/

Bitcoin has rallied overnight, turning both structure and momentum bullish. BTC has broken through the critical resistance level of $95.7k, reaching a high of $97.8k and establishing a new higher high. Resistance at the monthly CPR level of $97.5k has prompted a pullback to the 21 EMA, which is expected to provide solid support. The next target for BTC is the psychological $100k milestone, with support now sitting at the former resistance level of $95.7k.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 2 Jan: $ N/A million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/i8tw3N2Z/

Ethereum has broken out of its multi-day consolidation range and is trading above all major moving averages, supported by a bullish structure. After a rejection at the CPR level of $3,515, ETH has returned to the 21 EMA, which, along with the 55 EMA, is expected to provide a base for further gains. The next resistance target for ETH lies at $3,557.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 2 Jan: $ N/A Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.