Stormrake - Insights #Brokerage

The Outlier Asset: Why HYPE Has Bucked the Trend

Thu, 21 May 2026 14:40:55 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Throughout lull periods within the market whilst the majority of assets are following Bitcoin, we often see focused narratives. Whether that be on sectors within the crypto ecosystem or specific coins, certain assets manage to buck the trend and rally.

This year, the clear standout has been Hyperliquid. It has been a strong feature of our Stormrake Spotlight a number of times, and it is safe to say 2026 has been massive for HYPE price action. On the surface, it is up over 110% year-to-date and back over $50. But why?

To put this strength into perspective, the last time HYPE was trading above $50, the rest of the crypto space looked vastly different:

BTC was $125K
ETH was $4600
SOL was $235

When we were covering it last year, the main use of Hyperliquid was its decentralised trading platform. This ecosystem attracted everyone from everyday retail traders to large whales looking to trade with leverage. Whilst the HYPE token itself was not required to trade on the platform, a large portion of the fees collected by the protocol were used to buy back HYPE tokens.

This created a very efficient and successful flywheel, seeing close to 100% of fees collected across the entire Hyperliquid ecosystem used to rebuy HYPE tokens from the open market. This mechanism is further supported by a deflationary burning system, which has already seen 45 million HYPE tokens permanently destroyed, representing 4.5% of the total maximum supply.

Since that time, Hyperliquid has continued to evolve and expand its structural reach. The network has achieved massive growth through major upgrades, partnerships, and institutional achievements:

Traditional Market Integration: Launched tokenised derivatives of traditional equities and commodities, allowing continuous 24/7 trading on-chain.
S&P Dow Jones Partnership: Officially authorised the S&P 500 Index to be used for Hyperliquid perpetual contract trading.
USDC Yield Agreement: Partnered with Coinbase and Circle, securing an arrangement that gives Hyperliquid 90% of their USDC yield.
Corporate Expansion: Launched Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. onto public equity markets under the stock ticker PURR.
Spot ETF Launch: The Spot HYPE ETF went live this year, marking the quickest timeline from initial application to live trading ever recorded.
Pre-IPO Trading: Launched SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual futures earlier this week on Trade.xyz, offering investors a unique way to trade what is expected to be one of the largest market listings in history.
Institutional Allocation: Major traditional institutions are actively buying into the ecosystem, with firms like Goldman Sachs reducing exposure to other altcoin ETFs to reallocate directly into the HYPE ETF.

None of this structural growth takes away from Bitcoin, which remains the ultimate, politically neutral global settlement layer and sovereign reserve asset. However, Hyperliquid has firmly established itself as the dominant force within the broader altcoin space, proving that its fundamental utility is incredibly robust.

Tomorrow we will break down the technical analysis on HYPE, exploring the distinct similarities it shares with other major altcoins right before they experienced historic, market-defining rallies.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,538)

PAXG has had a bounce from the very bottom of the zone but still remains firmly within it. It is only a matter of time before the zone is broken and PAXG heads lower.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has bounced nearly 1% over the last 24 hours and in doing so has flipped the short term momentum back into the favour of the bulls. However, it is about to face major resistance at the 200 moving averages which would be an expected spot to see the bears create a lower high ($78.3k) and strengthen their control of the structure.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

Yield Gravity: Short Term Pain for Generational Gain

Wed, 20 May 2026 14:27:15 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Yields have dominated headlines as they reach levels not seen in decades across the globe, triggering sharp sell-offs and stoking deep concerns for risk-on assets. But let’s take a deep dive into what it could mean in both the short and long term for Bitcoin.

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield has pushed to 4.663%, hitting its highest level since January 2025. Concurrently, the US 30-year yield is pressing heavily at 5.2%. This is a crucial macro milestone: US 30-year yields have climbed to their highest level since July 2007.

Meanwhile, Japan’s fixed-income market is experiencing an unprecedented structural shakeup. The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has surged to 2.8%, while the 30-year has climbed to 4.192%.

The multi-decade era of artificially cheap global money is fracturing in real time. This dual-engine yield spike is altering how the world’s largest institutional players allocate risk, shifting the baseline cost of capital globally.

The Short-Term Price Impact on Bitcoin

To understand where Bitcoin is heading, we must first look at why this yield vortex creates immediate headwinds for the spot price:

The Carry Trade Unwind: For years, macro funds borrowed cheap yen at near-zero rates to chase returns in riskier markets. As Japanese yields and borrowing costs rise rapidly, funds are forced to deleverage and sell liquid assets to manage margin requirements.
The Continuous Liquidity Relief Valve: Because Bitcoin operates 24/7 in a continuous market, institutional desks frequently treat it as an immediate source of funds to buffer losses in traditional portfolios. This creates automated, short-term selling pressure.
The Opportunity Cost Gravity Pull: When guaranteed, risk-free government bonds pay substantial yields, the short-term incentive for speculative capital to hold volatile digital assets decreases, temporarily thinning out buy-side order books.

The Long-Term Upside: A Generational Setup

While the near-term price action feels uncomfortable, looking past the immediate noise reveals a compelling historical reality.

When the US 30-year yield has exceeded 5%, which has only happened twice in Bitcoin’s life, it has historically acted as a macroeconomic line in the sand. We saw this exact technical setup in October 2023, and saw it play out again in May 2025. On both previous occasions, these extreme long-term yield spikes immediately preceded a massive capital rotation, fueling powerful Bitcoin rallies to fresh all-time highs.

The underlying driver of this bond market collapse remains unsustainable sovereign debt and persistent, structural inflation. With the US national debt sitting above $39 trillion, governments simply cannot survive these elevated borrowing costs for long without triggering massive fiscal pain. The compounding interest bill threatens to break the legacy financial system.

Eventually, central banks are forced to intervene to prevent sovereign insolvency. To save the bond markets, they will ultimately have to pivot, bringing back massive liquidity injections and debt-monetisation strategies.

This is where the coiled spring dynamic takes over:

Flight to Hard Collateral: The moment the printing presses restart to suppress yields, a fresh wave of debased fiat currency enters the global economy. Capital seeking preservation will bypass unstable debt structures and rotate directly into absolute mathematical scarcity.
A Proven Playbook: History shows that environments of deep macro uncertainty and structural fear offer the most asymmetric accumulation windows. Long-term conviction combined with strategic positioning during periods of peak pessimism has consistently been rewarded.

The current yield spike creates short-term turbulence, but it accelerates the exact structural breakdown that positions Bitcoin for its next major expansion phase.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,487)

A difficult session for PAXG has seen it shed nearly 2% over the last 24 hours. Price has slipped back below all major moving averages and is actively retesting the bottom of its current downside zone. If this technical floor breaks, the move toward $4,000 is expected to gather speed as key support dissolves.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

The bears are using their momentum to press Bitcoin lower, firmly reinforcing short-term control over the current structure. Every bullish bounce attempt has been thwarted by the 55 exponential moving average (green line), which continues to act as an overhead ceiling. The market looks lower toward key horizontal support sitting around the $74,000 zone.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The 'Wholecoiner' Hourglass: Time Is Ticking...

Wed, 20 May 2026 14:18:53 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Yesterday, we exposed the stark reality of the altcoin diversification trap, noting that broad crypto indices often result in a slow motion liquidation whilst Bitcoin maintains its structural dominance. Today, we address the immediate consequence of that reality: the liquid pool of available Bitcoin is evaporating before our eyes. While retail investors remain distracted by the volatile swings of underperforming altcoins, global institutions and corporate desks are quietly removing the ever-dwindling Bitcoin supply from the market permanently.

This phenomenon represents a fundamental lesson in supply and demand. Because Bitcoin functions as the ultimate exit ramp from a fragile fiat structure, sophisticated market participants have transitioned from trading the asset to hoarding it.

The Two Percent Bottleneck

For the average investor, the dream of owning a full Bitcoin is rapidly slipping out of reach. On-chain distribution data from Glassnode reveals that approximately, only a mere 1 million unique addresses hold 1 BTC or more. Out of the tens of millions of active wallets globally, these “Wholecoiners” represent the top 2.2% of the network.

When adjusting for entities, meaning we look at individual owners rather than raw wallet addresses, the reality is even more restrictive. Individuals possessing a whole coin sit comfortably within the top 1% of global holders. The window for a middle class income to achieve this milestone is narrowing. Bitcoin scarcity means that owning a full coin will eventually become a historical privilege, shifting the psychological goalposts of wealth accumulation from whole coins to fractional owners who posses less than a whole Bitcoin.

The Great Exchange Drain

This individual bottleneck is intensified by a massive structural supply shock occurring across global trading venues. The above market analytics demonstrates that aggregate Bitcoin balances across major exchanges have plummeted from roughly 3.2 million BTC down to approximately 2.6 million BTC. A staggering 600,000 coins have been sucked out of the liquid float in under a year. This massive deficit is the direct result of corporate treasuries and long term institutional custodians moving assets into deep cold storage. This leaves an incredibly thin layer of liquidity available for public spot trading. When the next wave of macroeconomic instability triggers an influx of capital, this minimal supply will collide with immense demand.

Securing Absolute Scarcity

Accumulating Bitcoin at this stage of the cycle requires a shift in perspective. Measuring wealth in a depreciating currency serves little purpose when the asset you are acquiring is entirely finite. True financial security belongs to those who recognise the structural squeeze early enough to secure their piece of the network. The digital hourglass is draining - and waiting for a deeper correction may mean missing the opportunity to secure a whole Bitcoin forever.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,568)

PAXG is up 2% since the low of $4,479 last night despite having fallen deeper into the support channel it’s held since March this year. If the zone of support weakens, and we see price spill underneath, lower lows and a deeper correction may appear more likely - giving PAXG more breathing space to ‘cool-off’, providing corrective relief to accumulate a large position at pre-2026 rally prices.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Volatility is increasing with Bitcoin, with yesterday’s buy/sell trading range being 2.23% in a battle between the bulls and the bears. Despite, the bears retaining firm control over price-action, the rare - yet fleeting window to accumulate Bitcoin for cheap in a bear market is once again on-offer.

If Bulls are to regain short-term momentum back to the upside, they’ll need a strong push to reclaim $80K soon, otherwise deeper discounts, in-between the Apr. 2025 Tariff lows and Early-2024 highs around ~$74K are becoming increasingly likely.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Illusion of Crypto Diversification

Mon, 18 May 2026 14:17:04 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

The data since the January 20, 2025 inauguration provides a cold reality check for those attempting to apply traditional portfolio theory to the digital asset space. Are you tired of winning yet?

While the “Benchmarks” dashboard tracks a basket of BTC, ETH, and SOL, the gold standard for any serious digital asset participant is Bitcoin alone. In this instance, Bitcoin has seen a drawdown of only 11.41%, a stark contrast to the broader sector damage that has been far more pronounced. From Modular assets down over 27.7% to Privacy coins sliding 25.53%, the sea of red across the dashboard confirms a structural truth: in crypto, diversification is often just a slow-motion liquidation.

Diversification: Traditional Tool vs. Crypto Trap

In traditional finance, diversification is the “only free lunch,” designed to reduce idiosyncratic risk by spreading capital across non-correlated sectors. If tech stocks slide, perhaps commodities or healthcare provide a buffer. However, as the Sector Performance data highlights, the crypto market remains a highly correlated ecosystem where Bitcoin is not just a participant, but the gravity that governs the entire system.

Most participants who diversified away from Bitcoin into “Dinos “Layer 1s” or “DeFi” in an attempt to capture outperformance have instead captured significant downside. Aside from isolated outliers in the AI sector, the vast majority of altcoins have failed to keep pace with Bitcoin, which remains the relative safe haven of the asset class.

Narrative Alpha and Selective Outperformance

While broad diversification is failing, we cannot ignore the pockets of extreme strength where genuine value and powerful narratives have defied the trend. The AI sector stands as the clear outlier, up 44.74% on average, driven by the massive demand for AI infrastructure and computation. We are also seeing outperformance driven by institutional validation and specific utility; ONDO has maintained its edge through strategic institutional partnerships, ZEC has climbed 53.64% as the privacy narrative gains fresh steam, and HYPE has more than doubled with a 121.9% gain as it establishes itself as the premier DEX for perpetuals trading.

The lesson for the crypto space is that “lazy” diversification, buying a basket and hoping, is a losing strategy; even some of the biggest names will never reach their all-time highs again.

The market rewards patience and conviction in Bitcoin. While outperformance can be achieved with selected altcoins, the probability of this occurring sits at less than 1%.

The True Path to Sovereignty

For investors looking to diversify away from the traditional system of fiat devaluation and unsustainable debt, Bitcoin serves its purpose as a neutral reserve asset. It is the exit ramp from a global financial structure that is increasingly fragile.

However, for those already within the digital asset ecosystem, the data suggests that looking for “diversification” within altcoins is often a fool’s errand. While the lure of high-beta returns in altcoin sectors are constant, the structural reality is that these assets frequently bleed against Bitcoin over longer durations. True diversification isn’t about owning fifty different tickers that all move in the same direction; it is about owning the one asset that has the power to change the system entirely.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,547)

PAXG is set to kick off the week firmly in the downside zone and below all moving averages. It is likely that we see this zone finally breakdown this week as the bears continue to reaffirm their control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

It was a poor weekend for Bitcoin as we saw another pullback and bears reclaim control after another failed attempt at breaking $82k to $83k. With the bears back in short term control, we may see a continued push back down to the key support levels around $74k.

The bulls will have bounce opportunities along the way to attempt to reverse the move and retry $80k once again.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Q2 2026 Outlook Breakdown - Part 5: The Psychology of the Market Cycle

Fri, 15 May 2026 09:49:30 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

In the final installment of our Quarter 2 Outlook series, we shift our focus from what the market is doing to why participants are doing it. In the digital asset space, price does not just move based on math; it moves based on human emotion. Understanding where we sit on the emotional spectrum is often more valuable than any technical indicator.

Understanding the “Anger” Phase

The Bitcoin market is a massive, real-time experiment in human psychology. Every cycle follows a predictable emotional path, from the euphoria of a peak to the panic of a crash, eventually leading to a period of deep frustration.

According to the “Wall Street Cheat Sheet” framework, our analysis suggests we are currently navigating the Anger phase. Following the sharp reversal from the $126,000 peak down to the $60,000 range, the initial panic has been replaced by a sense of resentment. Investors are no longer just scared; they are frustrated that the “buy the dip” narrative did not immediately pay off. This phase is characterised by participants blaming external factors for the market’s inability to reclaim previous highs.

Why the Anger Phase is actually a bullish signal:

Flushing out weak hands: Anger is the final stage of emotional exhaustion. It is where retail investors finally give up and exit the market, disgusted by the price action.
The transfer of wealth: Historically, this is where smart money and institutional accumulators step in. They buy the coins that frustrated retail sellers are throwing away.
Building a structural base: While price action feels “ugly”, “boring” and sideways, this is the essential period of stabilisation required to build the foundation for the next expansion.

For a deep dive into the sentiment indicators we use to track the cycle, read our complete Quarter 2 Outlook 2026 report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,659)

PAXG is on track to record its third consecutive red day after failing to secure a bullish breakout. Momentum remains sluggish as moving averages continue to reject any sustained upside. We anticipate a continuation lower to retest the established support zone near $4,600.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has reclaimed momentum at the first available opportunity, a significant sign of underlying strength following three consecutive red days. Up nearly 2.5% over the last 24 hours, the bulls have seized the driver’s seat once again. This renewed strength coincides with a major regulatory milestone: the Clarity Act has officially passed and is now heading to the Senate.

While momentum has shifted back in favour of the bulls, they now need to sustain a move above $83,000 with conviction to confirm the next leg higher.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Q2 2026 Outlook Breakdown - Part 4: The Exchange Supply Shock

Thu, 14 May 2026 11:23:42 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

In part four of our Quarter 2 Outlook series, we dive into the internal mechanics of the Bitcoin market. While the world watches price charts, we are tracking the actual movement of coins. The data is clear: we are witnessing a massive migration of Bitcoin away from exchanges and into the hands of long-term investors, setting the stage for a significant supply imbalance.

The Move to Cold Storage

Bitcoin supply on exchanges has reached its lowest point in over five years . Despite the price currently sitting around $80,000, “smart money” is not selling; they are accumulating and moving their BTC into cold storage. This is an extremely bullish signal for the coming months.

When Bitcoin is moved off an exchange, it is effectively taken out of the immediate liquid supply. We are seeing a structural shift where long-term holders have begun to increase their positions again, signalling that the aggressive selling we saw in 2025 has officially ended. This creates a “soft floor” for the market—even a small increase in buyer demand could result in a rapid, upward impact on price.

Why this supply tightening matters:

Supply Shock Potential: With exchange reserves at multi-year lows, the “circulating supply” available for purchase is extremely thin.
Institutional Accumulation: Large investors are quietly buying during these periods of price weakness rather than chasing the market at all-time highs.
Stablecoin Expansion: At the same time, the total amount of stablecoins in the ecosystem is growing, reaching new cycle highs. This means there is “dry powder” sitting on the sidelines ready to flow back into Bitcoin.

Historically, this is the most opportunistic time for patient capital to accumulate. While this phase often involves a few months of sideways movement, it is the quiet before the next major bull run.

For the full data on exchange flows and holder behavior, read our complete Quarter 2 Outlook 2026 report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,685)

It appears that PAXG has once again failed to break above the 55 exponential moving average. The bears have reinforced their control following this rejection, and we can expect another test of the downside zone in the coming days.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has fallen below all the moving averages and the key support level at $80.6k, handing full control to the bears. If the bears follow through with their newfound momentum and structural reclaim, we can anticipate a retest of the 2025 lows around $75k in the coming days.

Between now and then, the bulls will have bounce opportunities to capitalise on and attempt a reversal back above $80k to continue the bullish push.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Budget, Bitcoin and the End of the Discount

Thu, 14 May 2026 11:18:00 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Taking a break from the Q2 Outlook report breakdown, today we cover the highly anticipated and widely discussed 2026–27 Australian Federal Budget. The government has officially handed down its plan, and as expected, it fundamentally rewrites the rules for capital gains. While headlines are heavily focused on property and negative gearing, the confirmed changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) represent a structural shift for every digital asset holder in Australia.

Please keep in mind we are not tax advisors or advisors of any kind; this is just an informative piece to provide the key updates and how they may affect your crypto holdings.

The government has confirmed it will replace the long-standing 50% CGT discount for assets held over 12 months with a return to a cost base indexation model. Additionally, a new 30% minimum tax will apply to net capital gains starting 1 July 2027. This marks the end of a simplified era, moving the system back toward taxing “real” gains adjusted for inflation—a departure from the blanket discount model that has dominated the landscape since 1999.

What This Means for Your Bitcoin

For long term Bitcoin holders, the math has now officially changed. Under current rules, a $10,000 profit on BTC held for over a year sees only $5,000 added to your taxable income.

The New Calculation: From July 2027, you will instead index your purchase price to inflation. For example, if you bought $100 of BTC and it rose to $110 while inflation was 2%, you would be taxed on the $8 gain above the indexed cost of $102, rather than just $5 under the old 50% discount.
Inflation Dynamics: While this protects you against currency devaluation, if Bitcoin outpaces inflation significantly, your taxable gain — and the associated tax bill — could be notably higher than under the old 50% discount.
The Transition Window: The new regime only applies to gains arising on or after 1 July 2027. For assets held before this date, the 50% discount still applies to gains accrued up to 30 June 2027.
A Closing Window: The transition period creates a unique window for investors. Assets acquired before the July 2027 deadline still qualify for the 50% discount on gains accrued up to that point. As the market moves toward a more complex model, current rules offer a level of simplicity that is officially on a countdown.
Valuation Requirements: Investors will need to document the market value of their holdings as at 1 July 2027 to establish a new cost base for the indexation period.
SMSF Stability: At this stage, there is no expected change to the CGT discount for superannuation funds. This makes Self-Managed Super Funds (SMSFs) a vital tool for maintaining long-term financial sovereignty.

This is not a call to sell or buy or provide any tax advice, but a reminder that the environment is evolving. At Stormrake, we view Bitcoin as a tool for financial autonomy. While tax laws shift, the underlying value proposition of a borderless, permissionless asset remains unchanged.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,713)

The bears have attempted to thwart the bullish breakout with the pullback over the last 24 hours, but the bulls managed to have an intraday bounce back to get back above the moving averages. This week seems to be the week where the bulls may finally be able to reclaim momentum.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has fallen back to the key support level at $80.6k as the bears have wrestled back momentum on the very short term time frame. This is a key decision point for BTC. If we see a sustained move below this level as well as the moving averages, it would give the bears control of the near term and look to send BTC back into the upper $70k regions.

However, a hold of this level should see the bulls end this little pullback and send BTC higher to create new highs.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Q2 2026 Outlook Breakdown - Part 3: The "Invisible Adoption" Phase

Tue, 12 May 2026 10:35:59 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

In part three of our Quarter 2 Outlook series, we look past the noise of daily price action to examine a major shift in how Bitcoin is actually being used. While the market is fixated on the $80,000 price level, an "invisible adoption" phase is underway. The Lightning Network is transitioning from a tech experiment into a vital piece of global financial infrastructure.

The Underlying Engine: Lightning Network

Bitcoin is increasingly becoming the “settlement layer” for the digital economy . Think of the Lightning Network as a high-speed express lane built on top of the main Bitcoin blockchain. It allows for nearly instant, low-cost payments while still using Bitcoin’s world-class security.

The real driver right now is the rise of AI. AI “agents” are now using the Lightning Network to pay for services automatically, sending tiny fractions of a cent back and forth without needing a human to click “send”. This is no longer just a theory; we have already seen institutional transfers of $1 Million settle in less than a second.

Why this matters for Bitcoin:

Consistent Demand: As AI systems grow, they create a steady, non-stop source of programmatic demand for Bitcoin.
Supply Lock-up: To make these fast payments work, Bitcoin is required as collateral within the network, effectively pulling BTC supply out of the liquid market.
Network Security: The total power securing the network (known as the hash rate) is near record highs around 900 EH/s, meaning the system is more robust than ever.

As machines begin to use Bitcoin for commerce, the asset is moving from being just “digital gold” to a structural necessity for the internet.

For a deep dive into the technology powering Bitcoin’s real-world utility, read our complete Quarter 2 Outlook 2026 report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,730)

The bulls look to finally be making their move above the 55 exponential moving average after climbing nearly 1% over the last 24 hours. However, this candle must be sustained and PAXG to continue higher otherwise a failure to break above this will see the bears strengthen their control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin pushed back to $82k after the bears attempt to send BTC below $80k, but with the bulls in full control of the structure and momentum it was an easy and quick bounce from that key level.

Whilst BTC is comfortable above $80k and the moving averages, there is nothing to be worried about.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Q2 2026 Outlook Breakdown - Part 2: The Yield Curve Fractal

Mon, 11 May 2026 09:47:31 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

In part two of our Quarter 2 Outlook series, we shift our focus from global liquidity to market structure. Understanding the relationship between short-term policy and long-term growth is critical for identifying where we sit in the current economic cycle. By analyzing the US 2-Year vs. 10-Year Treasury spread, we can map out a repeatable framework for Bitcoin’s price behavior.

Decoding the Yield Curve

Yield curve dynamics provide a reliable framework for understanding macro cycles. The spread between the US 2-year yield (policy expectations) and the 10-year yield (growth and inflation outlook) captures the health of the global financial framework. When this pairing steepens and short-term yields provide a higher return than long-term yields, it signals an “Inverted Yield Curve”, a warning that the system is under severe stress.

As yields rise, the cost of capital increases and liquidity is reduced, typically placing heavy pressure on high-beta risk assets like Bitcoin. However, history shows that Bitcoin follows a specific four-stage fractal in response to these shifts:

Stage 1: Initial Shock – Rapidly rising yields drive a broad risk-off move.
Stage 2: Stabilisation – Bitcoin begins to stabilize as investors reassess its role within the financial system.
Stage 3: Expansion – Anticipation of policy intervention triggers a breakout and accelerated appreciation.
Stage 4: Re-normalisation – Short-term yields fall relative to long-term yields as the market prices in recession, forcing a dovish central bank response.

Why the Fractal Matters Now:

Late-Stage Transition: Following the yield spike in early 2026, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, suggesting we are moving toward the later stages of this cycle.
Yields as a Leading Indicator: Bitcoin often responds to expected future liquidity. As rising yields increase pressure on debt markets, the probability of policy intervention rises.
The Opportunity: Any sell-off driven by yield re-normalisation may present incremental opportunities for positioning before the next expansion phase begins.

To see our full technical roadmap for the 2026 cycle, read our complete Quarter 2 Outlook 2026 report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,690)

PAXG is set to start the week with a major test of the 55 EMA which the bears have utilised to steadily reject every move up over the last month. This key moving average around $4,700 must be reclaimed by the bulls otherwise the bears will push PAXG back into the supply zone below.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is up 2% in nearly two hours as the bulls saw a strong bounce over the weekend from the 200 moving averages and look to continue higher as the day progresses. The bulls have strengthened their momentum and structure. We look for Bitcoin to continue deeper into the $80k region throughout the week.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Q2 2026 Outlook Breakdown - Part 1: The Great Liquidity Pivot

Fri, 08 May 2026 13:25:28 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Today marks the beginning of our Quarter 2 Outlook breakdown series. Throughout this series, we will be diving into specific sections of our comprehensive Q2 report to examine the key macroeconomic, geopolitical, and technical forces shaping the digital asset market. We begin by addressing the foundation of every market cycle: global liquidity.

Global liquidity remains the single most important driver of digital asset market cycles . While financial conditions have felt restrictive following the post-pandemic tightening cycle, the structural landscape has shifted in a way that suggests the worst of the liquidity withdrawal is officially behind us.

The M2 money supply, which reflects the total liquid capital within the financial system, has historically functioned as the primary catalyst for risk appetite. After a period of aggressive contraction, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening programme concluded in December, removing a major source of liquidity withdrawal from global markets. Furthermore, the decline of the reverse repo facility is effectively releasing liquidity back into the system. As M2 returns to its historical trend of expansion, it creates a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin, which has historically shown a high sensitivity to these broader monetary shifts.

Why this matters for Bitcoin:

Forward Looking Pricing: Bitcoin appears to be responding more to expected future liquidity than current conditions.
Systemic Pressure: Rising sovereign debt and interest costs are placing pressure on the financial system, conditions that have historically led to policy intervention.
The Opportunity: While conditions remain tight in the near term, the probability of future liquidity expansion is increasing as systemic pressure builds.

Bitcoin appears to be positioning within the latter phase of a bear market, where the risk-reward dynamics begin to favour long-term accumulation. As M2 money supply stabilises and capital begins to flow back into the ecosystem, we are watching for a transition from consolidation toward the next expansion phase.

For the full breakdown of how macro forces are shaping the next cycle, read our complete Quarter 2 Outlook 2026 report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,681)

PAXG is red on the day after being up nearly 1.5% intraday. As expected, the bears halted the push higher above the 55 exponential moving average resistance, a level they have defended aggressively for the last two months.

PAXG is rapidly approaching a decision point within a narrowing range; with resistance closing in on support, only one side can prevail. We will likely see a decisive breakout in the next couple of weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is down 2% on the day and has fallen back below $80,000, allowing the bears to regain short term momentum. However, the underlying market structure still favours the bulls.

This move is likely the necessary pullback before the next leg higher.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.