Stormrake - Insights #BTC ATH

The Battle for Money

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 10:54:10 +1000

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The petrodollar as we know it is losing its dominance and global status as the go to currency. We have been covering its decline for some time now, and how it has been accelerated by the current conflict in the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz has effectively been turned into a toll booth by Iran, accepting payments for safe passage, with the exception of the US dollar. In fact, there has been growing demand for Bitcoin as a settlement method.

This weekend saw failed peace talks end without a deal. As a result, Donald Trump announced that the United States Navy will now move to block the already disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

Following this, oil jumped 10% on futures open, while risk assets and Bitcoin came under pressure. More interesting, however, was Trump’s response to the Iranian toll system, which included the following statement:

‘Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.’

An illegal toll, in this context, effectively refers to anything not settled in US dollars. What began as a geopolitical conflict is increasingly shifting towards control over not just the flow of one of the world’s most valuable resources, but also the currency in which it is settled.

Unfortunately for the US dollar and Trump, this shift may already be too far along to reverse. More nations and participants are actively exploring alternatives. This attempt to bring oil settlements back under the US dollar may provide a short term boost to what was once the dominant global system.

However, it increasingly looks like a delay of the inevitable. The current structure is becoming unsustainable and, over time, will be replaced. The alternative is already emerging, an exit from the traditional system into sovereign, decentralised assets such as Bitcoin.

The shift is no longer theoretical, it is happening in real time. The only question that matters now is where you stand when the system finally breaks.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,640)

PAXG has declined over 1% and once again failed to break through resistance, with moving averages continuing to reject any sustained upside. Price has now returned to the top of the downside zone, with bears maintaining control as they look to confirm another lower high.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has once again failed to sustain a breakout. Over the weekend, price approached the $74k level but was rejected quickly, shifting momentum back to the bears and opening the door for a potential retest of $70k. Expect elevated volatility as the ongoing conflict continues to drive uncertainty across markets.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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The Ceasefire That Changed Money

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:21:18 +1000

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Money as we know it will never be the same following the conflict in the Middle East. Since the start of the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we have covered how Iran has been accepting alternative currencies to the US dollar for safe passage. This includes fiat such as the yuan, but more interestingly and far more game changing, Bitcoin and Tether.

Since the agreed ceasefire, the strait is not necessarily open and remains effectively shut, as no oil or gas tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz, according to the New York Times.

For safe passage, Iran has reportedly demanded that Bitcoin be used for settlement. According to the Financial Times, Iranian authorities have set the toll at $1 per barrel of oil. It has also been reported that Iran has been charging around $2 million per ship.

Now let’s break down the maths. Prior to the closure of the strait, approximately 20 million barrels flowed through daily. At $1 per barrel, that equates to $20 million required for passage. For this exercise, we will assume Bitcoin is the chosen settlement currency.

At current prices, $20 million equates to approximately 281 BTC. With only around 450 BTC issued daily through mining, this means roughly 62% of new daily supply would be required to facilitate passage through the strait.

This introduces a clear supply imbalance. A single real world use case is absorbing the majority of new issuance and, based on simple supply and demand dynamics, creates structural upward pressure on price.

A return to the US dollar looks increasingly unlikely. Even a key US ally, Saudi Arabia, did not renew its petrodollar agreement in 2024, while other nations continue to move away from the dollar. As we highlighted recently, China has been offloading US Treasuries, with holdings down nearly 50% over the past decade. Russia has also been actively avoiding settlement in US dollars, alongside other major economies.

Countries are increasingly seeking neutral settlement layers that cannot be frozen or controlled by issuing governments. This is where Bitcoin excels and where it is beginning to capture meaningful global market share.

Why Would they use Bitcoin?

Sovereign money: Bitcoin cannot be frozen or blocked by any government, unlike fiat currencies. It is a truly permissionless global payment system.
Instant settlement: Moving $2 million through traditional banking rails can take days. Bitcoin enables settlement within minutes.
Real world utility: Bitcoin has evolved significantly. From a digital gold narrative to a high beta risk asset, it is now emerging as a global settlement layer, actively being used in energy markets.
Energy link: The use of Bitcoin in oil transit directly links it to global energy flows. Bitcoin is now facilitating the movement of one of the world’s most valuable resources.

All of this is happening while Bitcoin is trading at $70k.

Just over six months ago, Bitcoin was at $126k. It is now over 40% below that level, yet its use case, narrative, and adoption have expanded significantly. We have seen smart money re-enter the market throughout March, and now Bitcoin is being used in global trade flows by major players.

The fact that Bitcoin remains at $70k is remarkable and presents what could be a generational accumulation opportunity. The maths above highlights a clear imbalance where demand is beginning to outpace supply, and when that happens, price tends to move in one direction.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,743)

PAXG is up nearly 1% over the last 24 hours as bulls attempt to break through immediate resistance that has capped price action over the past few days. A confirmed break would be highly bullish. Until then, bears still hold short term control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin appears to be struggling to maintain a sustained breakout above key resistance after reaching a high of $73.1k this morning. However, bulls still have underlying momentum, which could support a bounce at current levels and provide another attempt at a breakout.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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We’ve Seen This Before… But This Time Is Different

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:14:04 +1000

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A Bitcoin all time high in Q4, followed by a major geopolitical escalation in February that impacts both Bitcoin and Oil, is not new. We have seen this exact structure before.

In fact, the current environment is tracking closely with the 2022 Russia-Ukraine cycle.

Back then, Bitcoin topped in November 2021 before the conflict began in late February. Price was already in a significant drawdown, sentiment was weak, and oil quickly became the dominant macro driver. The result was a continuation lower, with Bitcoin eventually putting in a -58% drawdown within 90 days of the breakout.

Today, the setup is almost identical on the surface. Bitcoin topped in October 2025, entered a deep drawdown, and then saw a major geopolitical escalation at the end of February 2026. Oil has once again surged, but this time the reaction from Bitcoin is notably different.

Post-Conflict Price Behaviour

Day 0:
2022: Oil ~$92 | BTC ~$38.3K | Drawdown from ATH -44.5%
2026: Oil ~$73 | BTC ~$60.2K | Drawdown from ATH -52%

30 Days
2022: Oil ~$114 | BTC ~$44K | Drawdown from ATH -36%
2026: Oil ~$109 | BTC ~$66.7K | Drawdown from ATH -47%

~40 Days
2022: Oil ~$101.9 | BTC ~$45.5K | Drawdown from ATH -34%
2026: Oil ~$115.2 | BTC ~$71.3K | Drawdown from ATH -43%

60 Days
2022: Oil ~$102 | BTC ~$39.5K | Drawdown from ATH -42%
2026: Not yet reached

90 Days
2022: Oil ~$110 | BTC ~$29K | Drawdown from ATH -58%
2026: Not yet reached

*current as of today

The key divergence sits in both oil dynamics and Bitcoin’s response.

At the same point in the cycle, the contrast is clear.

In 2022, Bitcoin was trading near local highs with sentiment already in greed, despite macro conditions deteriorating. That strength was short-lived and ultimately rolled over into further downside.

In 2026, the opposite is happening. Oil has moved more aggressively, Bitcoin remains in a deeper drawdown, and sentiment is at extreme fear, yet price is recovering.

Despite worse sentiment and a more severe energy shock, Bitcoin is not breaking down.

Instead, it is holding structure and beginning to move higher, suggesting that supply is being absorbed rather than forced out. The Fear & Greed Index remaining near historic lows while price rises only reinforces that dynamic.

This creates a clear contrast.

In 2022, fear and relief cycles led to distribution and eventual breakdown.
In 2026, fear is being absorbed while price stabilises and trends higher.

That shift suggests accumulation rather than capitulation.

The takeaway is not that history will repeat exactly, but that the structure around opportunity looks very familiar.

If you were accumulating during 2022, particularly as the conflict escalated and sentiment deteriorated, you were positioning into one of the most asymmetric periods in the cycle. The following year rewarded that heavily.

The same conditions are beginning to form again.

Periods of deep drawdown, extreme fear, and macro uncertainty have consistently been where the strongest long term positions are built. They are uncomfortable, sentiment is weak, and conviction is tested, but that is exactly where the opportunity tends to sit.

This time, there is an added signal. Bitcoin is not just cheap relative to its highs, it is showing resilience during one of the most stressed macro environments in recent years.

It is not waiting for conditions to improve. It is starting to move despite them.

Yes, it may be Wednesday in Melbourne, but it is still Tuesday in Washington, where once again the US President has driven volatility through late-night social media posts.

Markets were sent into uncertainty after renewed threats targeting Iran, with timelines around potential strikes narrowing and participants counting down to a 10am local deadline. However, in typical fashion, a last-minute reversal has seen Trump announce a two-week delay on any military action, contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has accepted the 2-week ceasefire proposal.

Markets have reacted accordingly. Risk assets have pushed higher on the de-escalation narrative, while oil has seen a sharp unwind, dropping over 17% in a matter of hours as immediate supply fears ease.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,701)

PAXG has pulled back over 2% after failing to break above the 55 exponential moving average yesterday. This rejection signals continued bearish momentum, with sellers still maintaining control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is red over the last 24 hours, down just over 1%, after once again failing to hold a move above the key resistance at $71.7K. Bullish momentum was building, but is now beginning to fade, and risks being invalidated if price continues to reject from this level.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Unwinding of US Dominance and the Rise of Bitcoin

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:59:19 +1000

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Chinese holdings of US Treasuries have fallen to their lowest level since 2008, now sitting near $694B, down from over $1.3T in 2013. This is not a cyclical shift. It is a structural repositioning that reflects a deeper change in the global financial order.

We have covered this theme consistently. The relative decline of US financial dominance and the erosion of the petrodollar system are no longer theoretical. This chart is one of the clearest signals yet that the world’s second-largest economy is reducing reliance on the US-led system.

The catalyst is simple. The 2022 freezing of Russia’s $300B in reserves reframed Treasuries from risk-free assets into political instruments. For China, holding US debt is no longer just financial, it is geopolitical. In any escalation scenario, those reserves carry risk.

As a result, China is not just diversifying. It is stepping back from a system where control ultimately sits with Washington.

That capital is moving into assets with no counterparty risk. Gold has overtaken Treasuries in global reserve share, with the The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continuing to accumulate. Even when accounting for custodial shifts, the direction is clear. Exposure is falling, and so is trust.

This feeds directly into the de-dollarisation loop. Less demand for dollars means less recycling into Treasuries, placing structural pressure on US funding and exposing the fragility of a system reliant on external buyers.

What makes this cycle different is the emergence of a neutral alternative. Gold plays a role, but Bitcoin introduces something new. A non-sovereign, scarce asset that sits outside the control of any state.

Both sides are already positioning. China holds significant BTC exposure, while the US has formalised its stance with a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This is no longer speculative, it is strategic.

The takeaway is clear. This is not just a reduction in Treasury holdings. It is the gradual unwinding of a system that has defined global finance for decades.

We are watching the early stages of a new order take shape. One where Treasuries lose dominance, gold regains relevance, and Bitcoin emerges as the neutral layer between competing powers.

In simple terms, China is rotating out of political IOUs and into sovereign autonomy. Bitcoin sits at the centre of that shift.

TACO Tuesday:

Yes, it may be Wednesday in Melbourne, but it is still Tuesday in Washington, where once again the US President has driven volatility through late-night social media posts.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,802)

PAXG is rallying on the back of the ceasefire agreement, up over 3%, which was much needed for the bulls. If PAXG can break above the 55 EMA (green line), it will have clear air to push higher and potentially revisit $5,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is rallying, up nearly 4% in a few hours on the back of the ceasefire momentum. Another retest of the key resistance at $71.5K is occurring as we speak, which has been a major trouble point for BTC over the last couple of months. A successful reclaim and hold above this level would be a strong signal for a broader breakout.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Bitcoin Lesson Most Learn Late

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:55:56 +1000

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Time and time again, people view the cryptospace as a place to make quick money, yet the way to be successful within this space is quite simple. It’s to invest and accumulate Bitcoin over time. Many people think they can outperform Bitcoin through a number of avenues, some look for that 100x, others turn to gambling or leverage trading, but eventually the majority find out that they can’t and realise they should’ve been buying Bitcoin the entire time…

For those who were around in January of 2025, it was the memecoin casino on the Solana network when Pump.fun launched. It seemed like everyone was gambling, trying to pick 100x coins, avoiding rug pulls, or launching their own memecoins. Even the US President Donald Trump released his TRUMP memecoin, which was the apex of that period. It marked the point where speculation had completely overtaken any idea of investing.

Polymarket, Kalshi and other prediction markets have also taken off over the last 12 months, allowing users to bet on nearly anything. Markets where people convince themselves they have an edge, but in reality are just trading outcomes in a zero-sum environment, and allegedly where a lot of insider trading is done…

Then you have perps on platforms like Hyperliquid, leveraged trading, where we already know the rule that 90% of people lose 90% of their balance within the first 90 days, yet people continue to believe they will be the exception.

What do all of these periods have in common? None of them are done with the intention of investing, they are all forms of gambling, just packaged differently.

And the data reflects that, with 96% of memecoin participants either losing money or making less than $500, meaning only around 4% made anything meaningful. Prediction markets see roughly 70% of traders lose money, and perps sit somewhere between 70–90% of retail traders getting wiped.

Across all of these, the outcome is the same, most people lose, and this isn’t bad luck but simply the structure of the game itself. These are short-term, high-speed, zero-sum environments where there is no real edge for the average participant, no compounding, no durability, and no room for error, you are either early, lucky or you are exit liquidity.

That’s not investing, and the mistake people make is thinking they can consistently beat these environments, when in reality they are designed so that most people can’t.

Investing is slow, often boring, and requires patience, it’s about owning something and allowing it to compound over time, not constantly chasing narratives or trying to outsmart everyone else in the market.

But most people don’t want that, they want speed, excitement and outsized returns immediately, and that’s exactly what pushes them into the areas where the probability of losing is the highest.

There is a reason people who joined the Solana memecoin casino never returned, they got burned, lost their capital, and left the space with a sour taste in their mouths, while those who simply accumulated Bitcoin, ignored the noise and stayed consistent are still here.

Every cycle this repeats, new participants enter, try to outperform, get pulled into gambling, and eventually exit, while the minority who treat this as investing rather than gambling are the ones who remain and benefit over time.

The path is simple, but not easy, and most people choose to learn it the hard way.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,645)

PAXG has bounced from the zone, up 1%, a positive sign for the bulls but still a long way to go before the bears lose control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

As expected, Bitcoin reached $70k but once again has failed to break above it and been rejected since, now down over 2% from the overnight high and beginning to test bullish momentum, with this level continuing to act as clear resistance and price still stuck within the current range until a clean break or breakdown occurs.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Petrodollar Is Leaking: Bitcoin and the Fragmentation of Global Trade

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:51:23 +1000

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The petrodollar era is no longer defined by dominance, but by dilution.

Since the Strait of Hormuz restrictions began tightening, what was once a theoretical shift has become operational reality. Iran is no longer passively bypassing the dollar system, it is actively enforcing alternatives, and Bitcoin is increasingly sitting alongside this shift as a parallel rail. Tankers moving through one of the world’s most critical oil corridors are now, in select cases, required to settle in Chinese Yuan or through non-SWIFT channels, while BTC and stablecoins underpin the flows that cannot access traditional finance.

This marks a shift from circumvention to coercion.

The implications are structural. For decades, the global oil trade has been anchored to USD settlement, reinforcing a closed loop where energy demand supported dollar liquidity, which in turn fed back into US Treasuries. That loop is no longer intact.

Instead, flows are fragmenting.

China’s CIPS network is absorbing a growing share of cross-border energy transactions, while mBridge is enabling direct settlement between central banks without touching the US financial system. Volume across these rails has already seen a meaningful uptick this year, particularly across BRICS-aligned trade corridors.

Critically, this is not happening in isolation.

Saudi Arabia’s decision not to renew its exclusive dollar agreement in 2024 removed the political anchor of the petrodollar system. The UAE is actively settling trades with China using alternative infrastructure. Iran is now enforcing it at a geographic chokepoint.

The result is a transition from a single dominant system to a multi-polar settlement landscape.

The Yen also enters this equation.

As Japan contends with prolonged currency weakness and rising import costs, there is a growing incentive to diversify settlement exposure, particularly across energy markets. While not a direct challenger to USD dominance, the Yen’s increased utilisation in bilateral trade adds another layer to the fragmentation of global currency flows.

This is how the system shifts. Not through collapse, but through erosion of exclusivity.

Beneath this sovereign-level transition, a second layer is accelerating.

Bitcoin is becoming embedded within the mechanics of trade where traditional rails fail.

While state-level oil contracts are increasingly leaning toward Yuan settlement, the operational layer tells a different story. Sanctioned or semi-sanctioned actors are turning to Bitcoin and stablecoins to facilitate the parts of trade that cannot clear through banks.

This includes ship-to-ship transfers, offshore refuelling, and maritime insurance across shadow fleets. These functions are essential, and increasingly, they are being settled on-chain.

Iran’s integration of crypto mining into its energy strategy reinforces this dynamic. Rather than exporting oil alone, energy is being monetised digitally, bypassing financial restrictions entirely. On-chain flows linked to Iran have already reached significant scale, and the trajectory remains upward.

Bitcoin’s role here is not headline-driven, but it is critical.

It operates as neutral infrastructure in an environment where trust is fragmented and access is restricted. It does not replace fiat systems, it complements and, in some cases, circumvents them.

From a macro perspective, this matters.

As global trade becomes less centralised, the demand for neutral, permissionless settlement layers increases. Bitcoin sits directly in that category, not as a competitor to sovereign currencies, but as a parallel system that gains relevance as fragmentation expands.

Market structure continues to reflect this backdrop.

Bitcoin remains well supported, with buyers stepping in at key levels despite broader macro uncertainty. The resilience in price action suggests underlying accumulation, particularly as this geopolitical narrative strengthens.

This is not a sudden repricing event. It is a gradual shift in how global value moves.

The petrodollar is not dead, but it no longer stands alone.

And in a world where capital flows across multiple systems, Bitcoin is increasingly positioned at the intersection of them all.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,602)

PAXG has retraced back to the top of the downside zone. Now this is the real test for the bulls. Either we get a bounce from this level and push higher, or if PAXG fails to hold the top of the zone, we can expect it to continue its overall downtrend.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is making a move back to $70k after breaking the consolidation range above the previous key level. It has now flipped momentum back to the bulls. The real test will be how it reacts to the $70k level.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The Market Knows: Liquidity Is Returning

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:45:31 +1000

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The latest move in the Fed’s balance sheet tells a story that is hard to ignore.

After nearly two years of controlled contraction, liquidity is no longer being drained quietly. It is being injected aggressively. Right now, the market is being forced to confront a shift that sits at the heart of every cycle: inflation versus solvency.

The great tightening just broke

From 2022 through early 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained a clear path. Quantitative Tightening was in full effect, reducing liquidity, tightening financial conditions, and forcing risk assets to reprice. This was the cost of fighting inflation.

But the latest spike in Treasury holdings changes that narrative entirely.

This is not a gradual slowdown in QT. This is a sharp reversal.

Moves like this do not happen unless something breaks. Whether it is stress in funding markets, pressure in the banking system, or cracks in sovereign debt demand, the Fed has stepped in with size. This kind of vertical expansion signals urgency, not optional policy adjustment.

M2 is turning with it

This is where the bigger picture comes into focus.

For most of the tightening cycle, M2 money supply was contracting or flat. That environment is historically hostile for risk assets, as less money in the system means less capital flowing into equities and crypto.

Now, with balance sheet expansion returning, M2 is likely to follow.

Liquidity does not stay contained. It feeds through the system, lifting bank reserves, easing lending conditions, and allowing capital to move again.

And the relationship here is not subtle. Historically, the 1-year rolling correlation between Bitcoin and M2 has reached as high as 0.94, close to a lockstep move.

Crypto does not respond to narratives. It responds to liquidity.

Inflation vs solvency

This is the real pivot.

QT was designed to bring inflation back under control. It worked to an extent, but at a cost. Financial conditions tightened to the point where something appears to have forced the Fed’s hand.

Now the trade-off is clear. Do you continue tightening and risk systemic stress, or inject liquidity and risk reflation?

Right now, the Fed looks to be choosing stability.

That does not mean inflation is solved. It means it is being deprioritised. Historically, these moments mark a transition. Not immediately inflationary, but structurally supportive for asset prices.

Liquidity is the signal

We have already seen early signs of smart money positioning back into crypto, and that positioning now has a macro tailwind.

When liquidity expands, market behaviour changes. Downside becomes more supported, dips get bought faster, and higher beta assets begin to outperform.

Bitcoin typically leads in the early phase. Altcoins follow once confidence expands.

If M2 trends higher alongside this balance sheet expansion, the conditions for a broader market move strengthen significantly.

The Market Knows What This Is

This could be a temporary facility. It could be a targeted backstop.

But markets do not wait for labels.

They respond to direction. And right now, that direction has shifted.

Liquidity is returning. And capital rarely stays on the sidelines when it does.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,668)

PAXG pulled back 2% after rejection at resistance yesterday, but the reaction from bulls is the key focus here. Price tapped the downside zone and bounced cleanly, continuing to hold above support.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin lost nearly 2% following Trump’s address yesterday, threatening continued action if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened. It has returned to the key level of $66.8K, but the bears now have the slight edge with momentum.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Don’t Get Caught Offside: Smart Money Is Already Positioning

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:38:39 +1000

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Yesterday we covered that April could mark the turning point for Bitcoin. The bearish monthly streak has been broken, April is historically bullish, and smart money has returned to the market.

Today, let’s take that one step further.

What exactly is smart money doing right now, and how do you position alongside it rather than getting caught offside?

Because this is the phase where the gap begins to form.

The clearest signal is coming from institutional flows. March recorded between $1.32B and $1.53B in net ETF inflows, decisively ending a four-month stretch of outflows that drained over $6B from the market. In that same period, ETFs accumulated roughly 38,000 BTC, nearly reversing the 42,000 BTC distributed earlier this year.

This is not hesitation. This is re-accumulation at scale.

At the same time, the sell pressure that defined the recent correction is fading fast. Long-term holder distribution has dropped by 87%, falling from -243,737 BTC in early February to just -31,967 BTC by March. The strongest hands in the market have largely stopped selling, and when that happens, supply tightens quickly.

Less supply, steady demand. That imbalance does not last long.

The broader market structure supports this shift. Futures open interest has reset to around $20.4B, signalling that the forced selling and liquidation-driven downside has largely been cleared. At the same time, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio sits at 10.95, highlighting the presence of significant sidelined capital still waiting to deploy.

Capital is ready. Supply is shrinking.

Meanwhile, smart money continues to act. MicroStrategy accumulated approximately 40,000 BTC throughout March, steadily absorbing supply while sentiment remained uncertain. This is how early positioning looks. It is not reactive, it is deliberate.

And it is happening while most are still waiting.

All of this is unfolding in a market where Bitcoin exchange reserves are sitting near multi-year lows. When demand returns in this environment, price moves fast.

This is the setup most miss.

Retail sentiment is still anchored to the idea of lower prices, shaped by recent volatility and cycle expectations. But the data is pointing the other way. Distribution has ended, accumulation is underway, and demand is quietly building.

Right now, Bitcoin is trading around $68K. Smart money is accumulating in this range, while retail largely sits on the sidelines.

Then price moves.

A 30% expansion takes Bitcoin toward $90K. At that point, hesitation kicks in. The mindset shifts to waiting for a pullback, anchored to the idea that the opportunity was at $68K.

But the market does not always offer a second chance.

The pullback never meaningfully comes, momentum builds, and before long Bitcoin is back into triple-digit territory. What started as hesitation turns into forced decision-making, either buy significantly higher or miss the move entirely.

That is how investors get caught offside.

This is the core message. Invest like smart money, not like the crowd. Because by the time the move feels obvious, price has already moved.

The data is clear. The positioning is clear. The only question now is timing, and that window is closing.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,761)

PAXG has continued its strong recovery, building momentum following the recent correction. While it is still premature to call for new all-time highs, the past few days have been constructive and signal a shift back toward strength.

A clean break of immediate resistance would open the path for a move toward $5,000, with momentum likely to accelerate if gold continues to see inflows. For now, the trend is improving, but confirmation is still needed.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin saw a relatively flat session, with an attempted break above $69K being rejected. Price continues to hover just above the moving averages, holding its position while the market awaits expansion.

The bulls maintain a slight edge in the near term, but Bitcoin remains within its broader range for now.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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April Could Mark the Turning Point for Bitcoin

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:34:51 +1000

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We’ve just wrapped up March and, to many people’s surprise, it looks to have snapped the consecutive bearish streak that had been building and was close to tying the record for Bitcoin’s longest run of red months. That holds as long as Bitcoin remains above $67k by 11am today.

Five red months were still brutal, with Bitcoin retracing around 50% during that period, but we may now be seeing early signs that the bears’ time in control is coming to an end.

Now we enter April, which is historically Bitcoin’s second best performing month, delivering an average return of 33.4%. The timing could not be more interesting. While there is no denying Bitcoin has been in a bear market, March was actually a strong month from a fundamental perspective, even if price only moved up around 1% to 2%.

Smart money quietly returned throughout March. We saw positive spot Bitcoin ETF inflows for the first time in months, alongside an increase in long term holder supply and a continued decline in exchange reserves. These are classic signals of accumulation and suggest stronger hands are stepping back in.

Looking at previous cycles, this is typically when smart money begins to position itself, either towards the end of a bear market or at the early stages of a new cycle, when prices are heavily discounted and sentiment is weak. This is not a call that the bottom is definitively in or that a bull run is about to begin, but it does highlight an important shift.

If larger players are accumulating at these levels and price has not yet reacted significantly, it raises the question of whether this is the kind of environment everyday investors often miss.

Time and time again, retail participants wait for lower prices while smart money accumulates. More often than not, they end up getting caught offside, buying at higher levels and looking back wishing they had acted when sentiment was at its worst.

It is also worth noting that historically, once Bitcoin’s extended bearish monthly streaks of five or more months have come to an end, the market has already formed its bottom. Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but it is a data point that should not be ignored.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,658)

A strong day for PAXG bulls, with price up over 3% and finally breaking out of its recent range. The key challenge now is whether this move can be sustained.

Price is approaching immediate resistance at the 21 exponential moving average, marked by the yellow line. This level could act as a short term barrier, but for now momentum is clearly shifting, with bulls beginning to regain control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is now pushing towards $70k after a strong bounce from the key support level at $66.8k, which has helped flip short term momentum back in favour of the bulls.

Price has also reclaimed all major moving averages, a strong technical signal that momentum is building. If this structure holds, Bitcoin looks well positioned for a retest of the $70k level in the near term.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin vs AI: The Liquidity Drain Nobody Priced In

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:13:53 +1100

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Bitcoin continues to trade heavy, holding near support despite steady ETF inflows. The issue is not demand. It is a structural shift on the supply side, driven by the AI capex boom.

The AI Pivot Is Draining BTC Liquidity

Miners are no longer operating as pure Bitcoin businesses. They are repositioning as compute providers, and that shift is now feeding directly into market structure.

Large players are actively liquidating BTC treasuries to fund AI infrastructure. This is strategic capital rotation, not cyclical selling.

The scale is meaningful. Public miners have reduced collective treasuries by over 15,000 BTC in Q1 alone, with some shifting toward near-zero reserve models to fund participation in an estimated $70B AI/HPC contract pipeline (long-term deals to provide computing power for AI systems).

Instead of holding coins for upside, miners are deploying into GPUs, data centre upgrades, and long-term hosting deals. BTC is increasingly being treated as a funding layer for the AI buildout.

Structural Sell Pressure vs ETF Demand

This dynamic helps explain the current price stagnation.

ETF flows remain broadly constructive, but they are being absorbed by persistent miner distribution. The result is anaemic price action, even with supportive inflows.

There are also early signs of demand fatigue. In the final week of March, spot ETFs recorded close to $300M in net outflows. When marginal demand pauses, miner supply becomes the dominant price setter.

At the same time, production economics are deteriorating.

We are now seeing the widest gap between production cost and spot price since the 2022 lows. With average costs near $80K versus price around $70K, the cost-to-price ratio has pushed toward 1.2x.

Network difficulty continues to rise into stagnant price action, driving hashprice down to roughly $28–$30/PH/s (a measure of how much revenue miners earn per unit of computing power). This is no longer just margin compression. It is forcing a strategic response.

Capital Is Chasing Compute, Not Coins

Equity markets are accelerating this transition.

The mining sector is now clearly bifurcated. Companies with secured AI hosting contracts are trading around 12x EV/NTM revenue, while pure-play Bitcoin miners sit closer to 5.9x.

EV reflects the total value of the company, while NTM refers to expected performance over the next 12 months, meaning AI-exposed miners are being valued at roughly double the forward revenue multiple of traditional BTC miners.

That near 2x valuation premium is a powerful incentive. It is effectively paying miners to stop hoarding BTC and start building data centre capacity.

This creates a feedback loop where capital flows into AI, BTC treasuries are liquidated, and the typical miner-driven supply constraint is absent this cycle.

Market Takeaway

This is not a broken cycle. It is a redistribution phase.

Bitcoin is currently being used to finance the AI expansion, suppressing price action in the short term. Miner behaviour is no longer aligned with cyclical tightening. It is aligned with external capital demands.

Once this capex cycle matures and treasury selling slows, supply conditions should tighten more organically.

There is, however, a clear contrarian risk. If AI returns fail to justify the scale of current investment, miners risk exchanging scarce BTC for depreciating hardware and underutilised infrastructure. The market is pricing in successful execution, but the margin for error is thin.

This is now a macro convergence trade.

This does not change Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. If anything, it reinforces it. What we are seeing is a temporary misallocation of capital, not a structural weakness in the asset itself.

Bitcoin is no longer moving in isolation. It is increasingly tied to the AI capital cycle, and right now, that cycle is absorbing liquidity. When that shift inevitably returns to Bitcoin, the move will be sharp, and you do not want to be underallocated.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,509)

PAXG posted a modest green session over the past 24 hours, continuing to hold within a key demand zone, which points to underlying strength as buyers step in on dips. For now, consolidation remains the dominant structure, with price coiling ahead of its next move. A sustained hold above this range would favour continuation higher, while any loss of support could shift momentum quickly.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin wicked down to $65K yesterday before reclaiming $68K, highlighting continued liquidity sweeps around range lows, and has since rotated back toward the $66.8K level, which remains a key short-term pivot. Momentum is still sideways, with acceptance above opening a move back toward $70K, while rejection increases the probability of a sweep toward $63.8K, keeping conditions firmly reactive and level-driven.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.