Stormrake - Insights #BTC BOJStormrake - Insights #BTC BOJhttps://www.stormrake.com/blogs/tag/btc-bojFri, 01 May 2026 12:02:58 +1000http://zoho.com/sites/<![CDATA[Bank of Japan vs Bitcoin]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Bank-of-Japan-vs-Bitcoin
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This week the spotlight is on the Bank of Japan and its Governor Kazuo Ueda. Over the past month or two, investors and markets have been closely watching the rising cost of borrowing in Japan as yields surge. The 30 year Japanese yield is now at all time highs and the 10 year continues to push higher, currently sitting at its highest level since 2007.

This has major implications for the yen carry trade. As borrowing costs rise, the risk of the trade unwinding grows.

We saw this play out last year when the BOJ unexpectedly raised rates, which led to Bitcoin falling 30% in a matter of days alongside other risk assets.

So how do BOJ rate hikes actually impact Bitcoin?
The chart above shows Bitcoin price in orange and BOJ interest rates in red. For most of Bitcoin’s life, it existed during a period of negative or zero rates in Japan. Over the past few years, however, we have seen the BOJ begin to tighten policy. Each time this has happened, Bitcoin has had a clear negative reaction. Historically, BTC has dropped more than 30% following these hikes.

Friday is when the BOJ is expected to announce its next decision. According to Polymarket odds, there is currently a 97% probability of a 25 basis point hike. Whether or not Bitcoin reacts the same way it has in the past, the strategy remains unchanged. Accumulate through the noise. One thing remains consistent in the chart above, after each rate hike and correction, Bitcoin has returned to higher prices.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,317)

PAXG was up over 1% intraday yesterday but some late selling pressure saw it close flat and slightly red on the day. Nothing to worry about. Bulls are still in control and eyeing another move higher.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bulls attempted to reclaim the range with a move back above $88,888, but it was short lived. Bears stepped in quickly and rejected the move, pushing price lower to the next key support at $85.2K. In the short term, momentum is clearly with the bears.

Medium time frame structure remains neutral. We are seeing a series of higher lows, highlighted by the blue rectangles, with the low at $80K followed by a higher low at $84K. If price holds above that zone and forms another higher low here, we could see one more attempt at the yearly open at $93.5K.

If this move breaks below the $84K level, however, we are likely heading back to $80K with bears taking full control of the medium term structure.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 15 Dec: $ - 62.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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