Stormrake - Insights #BTC ETF

Rake Review: July 2026

Thu, 30 Jul 2026 19:12:00 +1000

Clarity, Confirmation, and the Cycle Low

If July has had a defining narrative, it is this one. The CLARITY Act, the bill designed to finally draw a clear line between which digital assets fall under the SEC and which fall under the CFTC, has been the single biggest story sitting underneath this month's price action, even as the headline number stayed relatively calm.

The Journey for Clarity

What the Clarity Act Actually Does

At its core, the bill splits crypto assets into two regulatory lanes. Assets that behave more like decentralised commodities, Bitcoin being the clearest example, would fall under the CFTC. Assets that behave more like traditional investment contracts would stay with the SEC. If you want the full breakdown of what those two regulators actually do and why crypto has never fit neatly into either box, that is this month's Education topic below. For now, the market-relevant point is simpler: a market that finally knows its own rules tends to attract the kind of institutional money that has been sitting on the sidelines for years, not because it did not want in, but because compliance teams could not sign off on something with no clear rulebook.

Where the Odds Actually Sit

The bill passed the House comfortably back in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in mid-May this year, and has been sitting on the Senate's calendar since. Two separate prediction market questions are worth tracking here, because they are answering different things.

The first asks a narrower, procedural question: will the Senate actually hold a recorded vote before Congress leaves for its August recess. That number has been on a wild ride through July. It was above 80% on 20 July, spiked toward 72% mid-month on news that the White House had agreed on ethics language, and has since fallen back to around 40% as Senate Majority Leader John Thune has publicly said he does not expect the bill to be done in time. That is a fast, sentiment-driven number, and it moves on headlines almost daily.

The second, broader question is whether crypto market structure legislation actually becomes law this year at all, which is a higher bar than simply getting a vote. That contract is currently pricing somewhere in the high 30s to low 40s percent for 2026 enactment, down materially from the 80%-plus odds seen back in February. If 2026 does not happen, the same markets show meaningfully better odds further out, in the region of 50 to 60% for enactment sometime before mid to late 2027.

What This Actually Means

Put simply: the market is currently pricing this as a coin flip on getting done this year, and a reasonably good bet on getting done eventually. That is a very different setup to a bill that is definitely happening or definitely dead, and it explains why price action around Clarity headlines has been sharp but short-lived rather than sustained, the market genuinely does not know yet, and neither does anyone else. Worth watching the procedural vote closely over the next fortnight, since a miss there effectively pushes the realistic timeline for this catalyst into next year.

A Familiar Shape: The Late 2023 ETF Rally

The setup has an echo worth drawing out. Through the second half of 2023, Bitcoin ran hard on the back of anticipation for a spot ETF approval that had not yet happened. The market was not reacting to the event itself, it was reacting to the increasing probability of the event, pricing in the outcome well before Washington delivered it.

The timing difference between the two setups is the part worth sitting with. The 2022 cycle low was set in November of that year, and the ETF approval did not land until January 2024, close to fourteen months later. The rally on approval expectations built steadily through most of that gap. Where we sit today is a different point in the cycle entirely. We are still inside the bear market, likely in the process of forming this cycle's low rather than well clear of it, which means a Clarity Act driven rally, if the bill does pass, would be arriving far earlier relative to the bottom than the ETF rally did. That is not a reason to write off the narrative. It is a reason to treat it as one leg of the recovery story rather than the whole of it, with the more traditional macro and cycle drivers still needing to do the rest of the work behind it.

The Bullish Case, and Its Limits

The optimistic read is straightforward: regulatory clarity tends to unlock capital that compliance and legal risk had previously kept out, particularly from institutions that have been openly waiting for exactly this kind of framework before committing meaningfully. A passed Clarity Act would be a structural tailwind, not a one-off headline, the kind of catalyst that changes the addressable pool of capital rather than just sentiment for a news cycle.

The honest counterweight is that the bill is not law yet, current odds put this year's passage closer to a coin flip than a certainty, and a market that has partly priced in passage carries real disappointment risk if the vote slips into next year. Worth watching alongside price, not worth trading purely on hope.

The mechanics of why this split even needs legislating, and what the SEC and CFTC actually do differently, are worth understanding properly rather than taking on faith. That is what this month's Education section digs into.

Forming a bottom

We are entering the stage of the cycle where the conversation has to shift from "are we still falling" to "have we already found the floor." Every prior Bitcoin cycle has followed a remarkably consistent rhythm from peak to trough, and on that rhythm alone, we are now deep into the window where cycle lows have historically formed.

Timing: Where We Sit Against History

Bitcoin's all time high of $126,272 was set in October 2025. That puts us roughly nine months on from the peak as of this review. Stack that against the last three major cycle troughs:

2021 to 2022: twelve months from the November 2021 all time high to the November 2022 cycle low
2017 to 2018: twelve months from the December 2017 all time high to the December 2018 cycle low
2013 to 2015: around thirteen months from the November 2013 all time high to the January 2015 cycle low

Nine months in, we are not yet at the outer edge of that historical window, but we are firmly inside it. If this cycle rhymes with the last three, the low is either recently behind us or still just a few months away.

It is also worth noting what those three windows have in common beyond their length. In each case, the trough was not obvious as it happened. The 2022 low coincided with the FTX collapse, the 2018 low ground out through a dead, directionless December, and the January 2015 low arrived with almost no fanfare at all, just a slow bleed that eventually stopped. None of them announced themselves. They were only identifiable in hindsight, usually weeks or months after the fact, which is exactly why waiting for confirmation is structurally expensive: by the time the bottom is obvious, a meaningful chunk of the recovery has typically already happened.

Our own confirmed cycle low so far this quarter sits at $57,800. Whether that print holds as the definitive low for this cycle is not something we can call with certainty yet. What we can say is that its timing, roughly eight to nine months off the October all-time high, sits comfortably inside the historical range rather than ahead of or behind it. That is the entire point of raising it now rather than after the fact. History does not repeat on a fixed clock, but it has never missed this window by much either.

The Cost of Waiting for Confirmation

Nobody can promise the exact day the bottom is printed. What can be shown clearly is the mathematics of what waiting for that certainty actually costs.

Using $200,000 as the target for the next bull run, the multiple on offer shrinks fast the longer confirmation is awaited:

The pattern is the point, not the precision of any single number. Every $10,000 of price recovery that happens before conviction sets in is a meaningful bite out of the eventual multiple, and that erosion is not linear, it is steepest right where we sit today. The jump from $65,000 to $75,000 alone costs close to half a turn of multiple. Wait for the price to climb another $10,000 past that as proof the bottom is in, and the round trip to $200,000 has already shrunk from roughly triple your money to barely two and a half times it, before a single dollar of new conviction has actually been earned.

This cuts both ways, and it is worth being upfront about the other side of the trade. Entering early into what still could be a further leg down carries its own risk, and a level like $57,800 acting as the low is not guaranteed. That is precisely why this is a question of risk and reward rather than a call to catch an exact bottom. Scaling in through this zone, rather than waiting for a single all-clear signal, is one way of participating in the asymmetry without needing to be right about the exact week the low prints. The broader point stands regardless of the entry method: certainty and price move in opposite directions, and the wait for one is a direct cost against the other.

July's Bitcoin Performance Leads Into August's No Man's Land

The aforementioned narrative of the Clarity Act dominated the month and saw Bitcoin put in its first green month since April, very much needed to stem the bleeding of the current bear market.

But a late bearish narrative has seemingly put a halt on the momentum, as a Bloomberg headline hit timelines flagging a chance of a late month interest rate hike.

The month started with a new cycle low at $57,800, but from that moment July turned it around and began to climb, starting conversations of the bottom potentially being in or very close, which we have addressed above.

Whilst the month is green, it doesn't necessarily mean the end of the bear market. The green price action needs to continue into August and push on higher to create a higher high, which hasn't been achieved since the all time high in October.

Now let's dive into the current structure and what we can expect, but also look at what Bitcoin needs to achieve in August.

Unfortunately for August, it is one of two bearish months on average for Bitcoin (the other being September). August has an average return of -0.64% and has delivered 10 red months of the last 15 Augusts.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/SHtiszJT/

There are two clear levels to watch for August. On the downside, the current cycle low of $57,800 sits 10% away from current price. The immediate upside level to watch is $67,000, currently ~5% away from current price, which was July's high and the most recent lower high.

Momentum leans slightly bearish, but can be considered 51/49 in favour of the downside, having been quite flat throughout July. In other words, Bitcoin is in no man's land, up for the taking by either side.

In the News

BitMart and BitMEX Both Announce Shutdowns

Two established names in crypto are closing their doors within days of each other. BitMEX, one of the oldest exchanges in the industry and the first to offer derivative trading in crypto, announced it will wind down by 23 September, ending an eleven year run in which it effectively invented the perpetual futures contract, the leveraged product that became the backbone of nearly every exchange's derivatives business. BitMart followed three days later, halting new registrations and deposits from 26 July with a full closure targeted for 26 August, making it the third notable exchange closure this month after AscendEX. Neither closure has been linked to insolvency, a hack, or regulatory enforcement, and the more likely explanation is structural: the mid-tier exchange model has been running on thinning volume for some time, and a prolonged bear market tends to be exactly when that gap finally becomes unsustainable, a cleanout of weaker infrastructure rather than a fresh warning sign. Worth remembering regardless, exchange risk does not announce itself in advance, and eleven years of history was no guarantee against BitMEX's eventual wind-down.

The Headline Fakeout: Rate Decision

As we now know, the potential rate hike headlines hurt bullish momentum, and when the decision came, rates remained unchanged, with Warsh delivering a hawkish message that reinforced the central bank's focus on fighting persistent inflation. Warsh emphasised that the Fed has no soft inflation target and remains resolute in restoring price stability to 2%, making it clear that interest rate cuts are off the table for now and keeping the door open for potential future rate hikes if price pressures remain elevated. Highlighted by three dissents on the committee favouring an immediate 25 basis point hike, the meeting signalled that monetary policy will stay tighter for longer, dampening expectations for near term easing.

SpaceX Comes Back Down to Earth

Last month the largest IPO in history launched. Not only did it dominate headlines, it also extracted liquidity from every other market as investors tried to pile into the most hyped launch ever. SpaceX opened at $135 and within a few days reached a high of $225. Fast forward to the end of July, it is now trading at $112, 50% lost in less than two months. It goes to show how quickly price action can unwind once the hype fades.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in July 2026:

Bitcoin increased by 9%
Ethereum increased by 21%
XRP increased by 3.43%
Hyperliquid fell by 17.2%
The total crypto market cap increased by 7.50%

Video of the month

Sovereignty Brief Ep 6: Navigating Common Investor Mistakes with Brody Chatfield

Bisher Khudeira and Brody Chatfield

Education: SEC vs CFTC, Explained Simply

Every month the Clarity Act story keeps coming back to the same two letters: SEC and CFTC. This Rake Review has covered what the bill means for markets, but it is worth actually unpacking what these two regulators are and why the distinction between them exists in the first place.

Two Regulators, Two Very Different Jobs

The Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC, was built to oversee securities. In plain terms, a security is typically something you buy expecting profit from someone else's effort, a share in a company, a bond, an investment contract. The SEC's job is investor protection: making sure companies disclose accurate information and that promoters cannot mislead the people buying in.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the CFTC, oversees commodities and their derivatives instead. Commodities are raw, interchangeable goods, things like gold, oil, or wheat, where the value comes from the asset itself rather than from a company or a team working behind it. The CFTC's traditional focus has been on futures and derivatives markets built around those commodities, rather than on the underlying asset itself.

Why Crypto Fell Into a Grey Area

Bitcoin does not fit neatly into either box on paper, and law written decades before crypto existed was never going to answer the question cleanly. Is a decentralised network with no company behind it and no promoter making promises about future profit a security, or is it closer to a commodity like gold, valuable simply because it is scarce and useful? Regulators, courts, and the industry itself have disagreed on this for years, and in the absence of a clear answer, enforcement has often ended up deciding the question after the fact, asset by asset, case by case, through lawsuits rather than legislation.

That is the practical cost of the grey area. Exchanges have had to guess which assets might later be deemed securities and pulled listings defensively. Institutions with compliance obligations have stayed out entirely rather than take on legal risk with no clear rulebook. Everyday users have had a harder time understanding what protections, if any, actually apply to what they hold.

What the Clarity Act Is Trying to Fix

The Clarity Act's core job is to draw that line properly into law rather than leaving it to be argued out case by case. Assets that behave like decentralised commodities, without a company or promoter controlling them, would sit under the CFTC. Assets that behave more like traditional investment contracts would stay with the SEC. Nothing about the underlying assets changes, what changes is that everyone, exchanges, institutions, and everyday holders alike, would finally know which rulebook applies before acting rather than finding out after an enforcement action.

That is the entire reason this bill matters as much as it does to market sentiment, it is not really a story about any single asset, it is a story about removing the guesswork that has quietly shaped which capital has been willing to enter the market at all.

Written by Alexandar Artis

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2026 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

Rake Review: June 2026

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 17:53:59 +1000

When the Noise Became the Signal

June 2026 did not whisper. The world's biggest IPO sucked billions out of risk assets, Michael Saylor broke his four-year vow and sold Bitcoin for the first time, a new Fed Chair signalled rates may go higher before they go lower, and Bitcoin posted its worst monthly performance since the Luna/Terra collapse of 2022. For once, the noise and the signal were pointing in exactly the same direction.

The Biggest IPO Just Happened and Bitcoin Paid for It

Most people outside of finance have heard of SpaceX. Elon Musk's rocket company, responsible for sending astronauts to the International Space Station and building the Starlink satellite internet network, has for years been one of the most talked about private companies in the world. In June, it stopped being private. On June 12, SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker SPCX, raising $75 billion in what became the largest stock market debut in history. For context, the previous record was held by Saudi Aramco, which raised around $25 billion when it went public in 2019. SpaceX more than tripled it.

The excitement was enormous. Investor orders to buy shares exceeded $250 billion, roughly four times the amount SpaceX was actually selling, meaning the vast majority of people who tried to get in at the IPO price were turned away. The stock gained 19% on its first day and briefly pushed SpaceX's total value past $2 trillion. So what does any of this have to do with Bitcoin?

When a company raises $75 billion from investors, that money has to come from somewhere. Investors, both everyday people and large institutions, had to sell other things they owned to free up cash to buy SpaceX shares. And one of the assets people sold to raise that cash was Bitcoin. SpaceX effectively became a liquidity black hole, drawing risk capital that would otherwise have stayed in digital assets. This is called capital rotation, and it is one of the main reasons Bitcoin fell so heavily through June.

There is a twist worth knowing about. SpaceX's public filing revealed the company holds 18,712 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, worth approximately $1.29 billion. That makes SpaceX one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin in the world. The company that caused so much selling pressure in Bitcoin actually owns a significant amount of it. Every person who bought a SpaceX share in June now has indirect Bitcoin exposure, whether they realise it or not. And as SpaceX gets added to major stock market indices, thousands of index funds and pension funds that buy the stock will also be indirectly buying Bitcoin through SpaceX's treasury.

The deeper issue for Bitcoin this month was not just the money leaving, it was the attention leaving. SpaceX offered investors rockets, global internet, and artificial intelligence all in one stock. In a market where people chase whatever is exciting, Bitcoin simply cannot match the fresh story around SpaceX. For the better part of two years, Bitcoin was the most exciting trade in markets. That crown has been passed, at least for now, to AI stocks and space companies. SpaceX itself pulled back sharply after its debut, falling from an intraday high of $225 to around $153 by the end of the month, but by then the damage to Bitcoin sentiment had already been done.

The longer term picture is more positive, and there is a concrete reason for that. Capital rotation works in both directions. The same investors who sold Bitcoin to buy SpaceX shares will eventually look for the next opportunity, and Bitcoin, sitting at multi-month lows and testing its most historically significant long term support level, will be difficult to ignore. The IPO frenzy that hurt Bitcoin in June is temporary. The 18,712 Bitcoin now sitting on SpaceX's balance sheet, quietly embedded inside thousands of index funds and pension portfolios around the world, is permanent.

The Saylor Thesis Meets Gravity

If you have spent any time following Bitcoin over the past few years, you will have heard of Michael Saylor. He is the co-founder and executive chairman of a company called Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, and he has built one of the most recognisable positions in crypto by doing one thing relentlessly: buying Bitcoin with every dollar he can get his hands on.

Strategy does not mine Bitcoin. It does not run an exchange. Its entire identity, since 2020, has been to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible and hold it forever. To fund those purchases, the company has raised billions of dollars by issuing shares and debt products to investors. The pitch has always been simple: Bitcoin goes up over time, and owning a lot of it, acquired with borrowed and raised capital, produces extraordinary returns.

June tested that pitch.

On June 1, Strategy revealed it had sold 32 Bitcoin for approximately $2.5 million. It was the first time the company had sold any Bitcoin in four years. Now, 32 Bitcoin is not a lot. Strategy still held 843,706 coins after the sale, making it a fraction of a percent of their total position. But Saylor had said publicly, many times, that he would never sell. The moment he did, even a tiny amount, people started asking questions.

The reason for the sale was to pay a dividend to investors in one of Strategy's financial products, called STRC. This is essentially a type of investment that Strategy sells to raise cash, promising regular dividend payments in return. As Strategy has taken on more of these obligations, the bills have grown. Annual dividend payments have risen from around $300 million at the start of 2026 to $1.2 billion today, while the company's cash reserves have fallen 38% over the same period.

At the same time, Bitcoin's price has dropped well below what Strategy paid for most of its coins. The average price Strategy paid across its entire Bitcoin holding is around $75,500 per coin. With Bitcoin trading in the low $60,000s through much of June, the company is sitting on an unrealised loss of approximately $10.6 billion. That does not mean Strategy is in immediate trouble, unrealised losses are paper losses until you sell, but it does mean the financial pressure is real and growing.

Saylor's public response was to post on X: "Volatility tests every capital structure. Strategy remains focused on Bitcoin, disciplined capital allocation, credit quality, and long term value creation." Characteristically unfazed. His supporters point out that Strategy survived a worse situation in 2022, when Bitcoin fell below $16,000, and never had to sell. His critics point out that the company's obligations are significantly larger today than they were back then.

The honest answer is that nobody knows exactly how this plays out. If Bitcoin recovers strongly in the second half of 2026, Strategy's balance sheet improves quickly and the concerns fade. If Bitcoin stays flat or falls further, the pressure to sell coins to meet obligations becomes harder to ignore, and a forced sale from the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder would create significant additional selling in the market.

There is one further development worth watching. Saylor has long positioned Strategy as a Bitcoin-only vehicle, but the financial pressure building on the balance sheet may force a rethink of that mandate. Speculation is growing that Strategy could begin diversifying its treasury into other hard assets, with gold the most likely candidate. If that happens, it would represent a significant shift in the Strategy story, and a tacit acknowledgement that a single-asset treasury model carries more risk than the narrative has historically admitted.

What June made clear is that the easy part of the Saylor trade is behind us. The thesis is not broken. Bitcoin has recovered from worse, and Strategy has survived deeper drawdowns than this one. But the risks are now visible in a way they were not twelve months ago, and visible risks have a habit of demanding attention before they resolve. The second half of 2026 will go a long way toward determining whether June was the moment the thesis was tested, or the moment it began to crack.

Price Performance: Breaking Down the Worst Month Since 2022

June broke what had been building for the majority of the year the classic bear market pattern known as the bear flag. This was the worst month for Bitcoin since June 2022, with Bitcoin losing nearly 19% from the open of the month to the close.

The month kicked off with a confirmed break of the bear flag, which triggered the next leg lower and the sustained bearish price action we saw throughout June. A major driver of sentiment this month was Michael Saylor and Strategy. When Strategy disclosed it had sold 32 Bitcoin the first sale in four years it shattered the narrative that Saylor was an unconditional, never sell accumulator. The market had priced Strategy as a permanent demand floor. The moment that assumption broke, confidence cracked with it, and the selling accelerated.

With the bears clearly in control, the bear flag pattern targets the mid to low $50,000 region as the next area of interest.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/4e3Du4wC/

Despite June historically being one of Bitcoin's stronger months averaging an 8.24% return across nine green Junes in the last 16 years this year told a very different story, and one with a familiar feel.

June 2022 was also Bitcoin's worst month of that year, occurring in the aftermath of the Luna Terra collapse in May 2022, which was the first major blow of the previous bear market. This June drew extreme parallels to that period. The Luna collapse came seven months after Bitcoin's prior all time high. The current June drawdown has come eight months after the October 2025 all time high of $128,198. When the prior June collapse occurred, the market was closer to the end of the bear market than the beginning and that is what we are anticipating to be the case now.

We go much deeper into the outlook for the next few months in the Stormrake Q3 2026 Outlook, which you can find in the section below.

In the News

Stormrake Quarter 3 Outlook: The Final Washout

We have just released our Stormrake Quarter 3 2026 Outlook, titled 'The Final Washout'. The report covers the next three months of Bitcoin price action, where we think Bitcoin is headed, what is likely to drive it, and where we believe we currently sit in the broader market cycle. If you have been following Bitcoin through what has been a brutal June and want to understand what comes next, this is the place to start. You can find the full report in the section here. It is a must read for those looking to accumulate Bitcoin at a discount…

Read the Full Outlook Here

The US Iran War Is Winding Down And Oil Is Feeling It

Earlier this year, US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes. Brent crude surged from around $72 per barrel at the outset of the conflict to above $118 by late April, pushing inflation higher and forcing central banks to shelve any near term plans to cut interest rates. June brought meaningful relief. On June 18, the US and Iran signed an interim peace agreement, and oil prices fell sharply, with Brent dropping back toward $77 per barrel. By June 24, WTI had fallen below $70 per barrel for the first time since the war began. The ceasefire remains fragile and a permanent deal is far from done, but the direction of travel is positive. For Bitcoin, falling oil means falling inflation, which means the path to interest rate cuts reopens and cheaper money has historically been one of the most reliable tailwinds Bitcoin has ever had.

The New Fed Chair Just Made His First Call and It Was Not What Trump Wanted

Trump replaced Jerome Powell with Kevin Warsh in May 2026, widely expecting a more rate cut friendly Fed. On June 17, Warsh chaired his first meeting and voted unanimously to hold rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. The bigger story was what came alongside it. Nine of the 18 voting members now support a rate hike before the end of 2026, a sharp reversal from March, when not a single policymaker had pencilled one in. Warsh also scrapped the Fed's longstanding practice of forward guidance, removing any hint of where rates are heading next. Stocks fell immediately after the statement dropped. For Bitcoin, the message is simple: rate cuts historically one of the strongest tailwinds for crypto have been pushed even further down the road.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in June 2026:

Bitcoin lost 19% in June.
Ethereum fell by 21% in June.
Hyperliquid created a new all time high at $76.70 but since retraced 20%.
PAX Gold lost 12% in June.
The total crypto market cap fell by 17%.

Video of the month

Sovereignty Brief Ep 1 -Who's holding your keys?

Bisher Khudeira and Michael Milmeister

Education: The 200 Week Moving Average

If you have been following Bitcoin through June, you will have seen a lot of commentary about something called the 200 week moving average. It has been mentioned constantly, and for good reason, Bitcoin spent much of this month right on top of it. So what is it, and why does everyone care so much?

Let's start simple. A moving average is just the average price of something over a set period of time. If you wanted to know Bitcoin's average price over the last ten days, you would add up the closing price from each of those days and divide by ten. That gives you a number, the average. Do the same calculation every day, updating it as new prices come in, and you get a line on a chart that smooths out the daily ups and downs and shows you the general direction things are heading.

The 200 week moving average does exactly that, but instead of using daily prices, it uses weekly prices, and instead of ten periods, it uses 200. That means it is calculating the average price of Bitcoin across the last 200 weeks, which works out to nearly four years of data in a single number.

Because it covers so much history, the line moves very slowly. It does not react to Bitcoin having a bad day, or even a bad month. It only really shifts when Bitcoin has been going in a particular direction for a long time. That makes it one of the most reliable tools for understanding where Bitcoin sits in its long term cycle, as opposed to its short term noise.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/b3xm73ie/

On June 4, Bitcoin tagged this line for the first time in this current cycle, with the moving average sitting near $62,600. That is why June felt significant to a lot of people watching the market. It was not just another bad month, it was Bitcoin arriving at the level that has historically signalled a floor.

The important thing to understand is that the 200 week moving average is not a guarantee. It is a pattern, not a rule. After breaching the line in June 2022, Bitcoin spent roughly 16 months below it before recovering. Touching it does not automatically mean the bottom is in. What it does mean is that Bitcoin has entered the kind of territory where, historically, patient long term buyers have been rewarded.

The cleanest signal to watch for is a weekly candle closing back above the line after touching it. That reclaim, price dipping to the average and then recovering above it, is what has marked the start of the next recovery in previous cycles.

For anyone who is relatively new to Bitcoin and feeling anxious watching the price sit in the high $50,000s and low $60,000s, the 200 week moving average is the context that matters most right now. It is not a reason to panic. If anything, it is the level where the most experienced long term holders in the market tend to get interested.

Written by Alexandar Artis

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Rake Review: May 2026

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 16:09:53 +1000

Why the Most Critical Shifts Happen in Silence

Human nature watches the noise, but true paradigm shifts occur in the quiet. May 2026 proved this. While casual observers focused on price compression, a massive structural re-alignment spanning a new Fed Chair, the CLARITY Act, and spot Hyperliquid ETFs quietly codified the next era of capital.

The Accumulation Zone: Wealth is Built in the Quiet

Human nature is fundamentally wired to celebrate the spectacular. We gravitate toward the dramatic breakout candles, the explosive all-time highs, and the euphoric media coverage that accompanies a roaring bull market. It is easy to buy into a narrative when every headline confirms your bias and your portfolio greens by the hour.

But the grand illusion of the financial markets is that wealth is created during these loud, celebratory moments. It is not. Wealth is simply realised then. The actual building of generational positions occurs in the quiet, uncomfortable periods of structural transition, long before the rest of the world notices that the ground has shifted.

Think back to the opening months of the year. The market was characterised by deep fatigue, weak positioning was ruthlessly washed out, and a multi-month correction tested the absolute limits of investor discipline. The reactive capital stayed safely frozen on the sidelines, waiting for a definitive signal or a return to comfortable market conditions.

Yet, history consistently demonstrates that comfort and asymmetric opportunity cannot coexist. By the time a market looks entirely safe and certain, the discount has already evaporated.

Instead of looking for the single, exact bottom of the market, strategic investors view these periods as a Bottoming Zone to accumulate within. Consider the historical context of 2022. During that cycle low, Bitcoin traded between $15k and $25k for months. Similarly, Bitcoin has spent the last three months stuck in a consolidation range between $60k and $80k. Whilst the nominal range in 2022 may seem smaller, spanning just a $10k range, it was actually much larger percentage wise than the current setup, representing a 66% expansion from its floor. By contrast, the current $20k range is a much tighter 33% compression.

We are currently living through one of those rare, quiet structural shifts. The exhaustion of the bears is no longer just a technical theory; it is a visible reality on the charts. While the casual observer remains distracted by day to day noise, strategic capital has spent the last few weeks absorbing supply and positioning ahead of a changing global paradigm. True financial sovereignty requires the willingness to embrace near term uncertainty in exchange for long term upside. The windows of opportunity in this asset class close far quicker than most expect, and those who wait for a perfectly clear horizon will inevitably find themselves chasing momentum at significantly higher prices.

The Washington Consensus: Warsh Takes the Fed as CLARITY Clears the Senate

For years, the primary structural barrier to entry for institutional capital in the United States was a hostile, fragmented regulatory environment. Trillions of dollars in sidelined capital remained locked away simply because legacy allocators could not take on the legal risk of an undefined asset class. In May 2026, that regulatory gridlock officially broke.

The shift is being driven by a simultaneous political and monetary changing of the guard, starting with the leadership transition at the nation's central bank. The US Senate officially confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve in a highly contentious 54-45 vote. Warsh steps into the role with a historically pro-innovation stance on digital assets, famously viewing Bitcoin as a direct challenge to fiat currency mismanagement in past public statements.

Whilst President Trump has been loudly calling for lower interest rates, and Warsh has publicly aligned himself with the administration by criticising Powell's past policy choices, a reality check is already playing out. Resurgent wholesale inflation has pinned the Fed into a corner. Consequently, the market is currently pricing in a 99% probability that the Fed maintains interest rates steady at the upcoming June meeting. Furthermore, the likelihood of a rate cut occurring at any point this year sits at just 31%, as Wall Street increasingly bets that rates will remain on hold until at least December. So, even though Warsh has flipped dovish recently to match White House rhetoric, it is highly unlikely we see any cuts during his first few months as Fed Chair.

However, for the digital asset space, the presence of a crypto friendly Fed Chair is a massive structural win, and the momentum on Capitol Hill did not stop there.

Coinciding with this monetary transition, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) successfully cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a historic 15-9 bipartisan vote. The significance of this milestone cannot be overstated. Having already passed the House of Representatives, the bill has moved one step closer to becoming law, establishing the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets in US history.

The CLARITY Act provides the exact regulatory roadmap Wall Street has spent years demanding. It draws an unambiguous line between SEC and CFTC jurisdictions, introducing a "mature blockchain test" that allows tokens to safely transition from investment contracts into decentralised digital commodities overseen by the CFTC. Crucially, the framework goes beyond corporate structuring to provide explicit legal protections for self-custody wallets and non-custodial DeFi software developers, effectively protecting individual sovereignty from government overreach. When you pair a pro-innovation central bank leader with a statutory framework that eliminates legal risk, the message to global finance is clear: the infrastructure for the next era of capital is officially being codified.

Price Performance: Technical Compression and the Final Bear Stretch

May looked to build on what March and April had laid the foundation for, attempting to spark a bullish reversal and officially transition out of the multi-month bear market phase. The month certainly started well, with Bitcoin putting on 8% to reach its highest point since January at just shy of $83,000. Unfortunately, that upside momentum fell right into the bears' hands and actually strengthened their overall control as the month progressed.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Pd3g5RZ/

The remainder of May was a difficult period for the market. Bitcoin went on to confirm a lower high to reinforce the prevailing bearish structure on the daily chart. Price action faced heavy overhead resistance at the 200 moving averages, completely rejecting the bulls' bet for a sustained breakout and sending Bitcoin back down into the confines of a prominent bear flag pattern. This technical structure remains the main danger zone for potential lower prices, particularly with a bearish moving average cross about to occur, signaling that the bears are locking in their near term momentum.

Looking forward, June has historically been a highly reliable and bullish month for Bitcoin. Over the last 15 years, June has delivered an average return of 7.54%, closing green in nine of those annual periods. If Bitcoin aligns with this historical average move next month, it would take price back up just shy of the vital resistance level at $80,000, a key psychological zone that now also has the descending 200 moving averages reinforcing it as a heavy supply ceiling.

With the bears firmly back in control and potentially lower prices on the cards for the opening weeks of June, the strategic Bottoming Zone mentioned earlier must remain at the absolute forefront of your mind when allocating capital. This period is highly likely to be the final stretch of the bear market. Once this structural accumulation phase inevitably ends, market prices will be significantly higher, and those investors who had the discipline to systematically build exposure within this zone will be thanking themselves for doing so.

In the News

Hyperliquid Spot ETF:

The structural shift towards 24/7 on-chain financial infrastructure achieved a massive institutional milestone in May 2026, with the official debut of the first spot Hyperliquid (HYPE) exchange-traded funds on US public markets. Led by the launch of the 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) on 12 May and the Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP) on 15 May, the category has completely blindsided traditional finance analysts by attracting over $95 million in cumulative net inflows within its first two weeks of trading. BHYP led the charge with a massive $19.04 million single-day purchase on 26 May, driving total collective assets under management across the U.S. listed HYPE ETFs to roughly $117 million. Highlighting this rapid institutional shift, daily momentum reached such a fever pitch that the HYPE ETF officially overtook the entire US spot Ethereum ETF market in 24 hour net inflows recently. A major catalyst for HYPEs dominant price performance in May.

Abolishing the Discount: The 2026 Australian Budget:

The Albanese government handed down the new Federal Budget, introducing major tax changes that directly impact local investors. Most notably, the long standing 50% Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount will be completely abolished on 1 July 2027 for assets held longer than 12 months. It will be replaced by a basic indexation method tied to inflation, alongside a strict 30% minimum tax rate on net capital gains. Because Bitcoin and digital assets historically grow at rates far outpacing inflation, this change means a significantly higher tax bill for Aussie crypto investors compared to the old flat discount.

Presidential Influence Triggers Historic Corporate Stock Rallies

A fascinating trend in May 2026 was the sheer power of political rhetoric over stock prices, proving that verbal endorsements can completely override standard analysis. On 22 May, President Trump publicly praised Micron Technology at a rally; on the 27th of May, the stock jumped 20%. Even more impressive was Dell Technologies, which Trump told consumers to go out and buy on 8 May. Dell was subsequently awarded a massive US government contract on 27 May and reported stellar corporate earnings on 28 May, sending the stock up another 30% in late trading. In total, Dell has surged 80% since that single comment on 8 May, giving digital asset allocators a clear lesson that tracking regulatory and political alignment is often far more critical than simply staring at technical chart patterns alone.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in May 2026:

Bitcoin lost 3.57% in May.
Ethereum fell by 11.2% in May.
Hyperliquid has climbed by over 80% in May and replaces DOGE in the Top 10.
PAXG lost 1.90% in May.
The total crypto market cap fell by 2.2%.

Video of the month

Australia Rewards Asset Owners - Everyone Else Falls Behind

Mark Di Paola and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Understanding Digital Asset Spot ETFs

What Is An Institutional ETF?

For everyday investors navigating the digital asset space, understanding the mechanics of institutional capital is vital to reading the broader market trend. At its core, a spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a traditional financial vehicle designed to give legacy allocators a familiar channel to gain exposure to digital assets directly through their existing stockbroker accounts. It acts as a bridge between the legacy financial system and the on-chain economy, removing the technical hurdles of managing cryptographic keys and self custody for large institutions that are bound by strict corporate mandates.

Do They Actually Buy The Asset?

A common question among market participants is whether these funds actually buy the underlying asset. The answer is yes, on a strict one to one basis. When capital flows into a spot ETF, the fund manager is legally obligated to buy the physical asset directly from spot desks to back the newly issued shares. Conversely, when outflows occur, the manager must sell the asset on the open market to meet redemptions.

How Can This Be Used As A Price Indicator?

Because of this direct physical relationship, ETF flow data functions as a highly reliable indicator for price performance. Institutional desks and large fund managers command massive blocks of liquidity and often deploy capital well ahead of retail cycles. When we observe heavy, consecutive daily inflows accompanied by a price rally, it confirms that structural, smart money demand is actively driving the move. Conversely, sustained net outflows typically explain a softer, distribution phase on the charts where selling pressure is dominant.

Why Spot Ownership Beats An ETF Product

However, from an educational perspective, it is critical to distinguish between buying an ETF product and owning physical spot crypto. When you invest in an ETF, you do not own the asset itself. Instead, you hold a financial product that tracks the price, effectively leaving you with an ongoing counterparty contract or paper representation of the asset. This structural asset proxy comes with ongoing management fees, and it confines your liquidity strictly to traditional stock market hours.

True monetary freedom and the real value of an asset like Bitcoin can only be accessed through direct physical ownership. With spot ownership, you hold the actual asset in your own custody, completely free from ongoing management fees and institutional counterparty risk. You gain full price exposure alongside the total permissionless portability that defines the digital asset revolution, ensuring you hold a sovereign wealth asset rather than a traditional financial product

Written by Alexandar Artis

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Rallies Ahead of Landmark Crypto Summit

Thu, 06 Mar 2025 11:47:42 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Bitcoin has had a bullish 24 hours as anticipation builds for the upcoming crypto summit. Hosted at the White House, this event will bring together some of the most prominent and influential figures in the crypto space.

Notable Attendees and Their Involvement in Crypto:

Donald Trump (US President)
David Sacks (‘Crypto Czar’)
Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy CEO)
Paolo Ardoino (Tether CEO)
Brad Garlinghouse (Ripple CEO)
Cathie Wood (Ark Invest CEO)
Anatoly Yakovenko (Solana Founder)
Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum Founder)
Nat Eliason (Ondo Finance)
Marc Andreessen (a16z Founder)
Brian Armstrong (Coinbase Founder)
Changpeng Zhao (Binance Founder)

This could be one of the biggest events and catalysts the crypto market has ever seen. Speculation is already mounting about potential major announcements, with some expecting:

The introduction of a Strategic Crypto Reserve
0% capital gains tax on US-based cryptocurrencies
Regulatory clarity and pro-crypto policies

Which Cryptos Stand to Benefit?

Source:https://cryptorank.io/

The graphic above is crucial—it highlights the cryptocurrencies set to benefit the most from the new pro-US crypto policies. This includes:

Cryptocurrencies developed in the US (potential candidates for 0% capital gains tax)
ETF applicants
Projects invited to the White House
Coins directly mentioned by Trump

The more a cryptocurrency overlaps with these categories, the greater its potential advantage. These coins should be on everyone’s radar.

A Potentially Risky Event

However, this summit also carries significant risk. In the past, bullish expectations around speeches from Trump and Sacks have led to sell-offs when key announcements (such as the Strategic Crypto Reserve) failed to materialise.

If the reserve is not confirmed, we could see another wave of disappointment-driven selling. But if it is confirmed, Bitcoin could rally past $100k and set the stage for new all-time highs.

Key Event Details

Start time: 4:30 AM AEST, March 8
Expected end time: 8:30 AM AEST

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who followed my advice have reaped massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.59)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/UXgTTR2b/

Sonic (S) has followed the broader market rally, rising nearly 6% in the past 24 hours. More importantly, S bounced from the bottom of the accumulation zone, confirming buying strength and demand at this level.

As long as Bitcoin remains bullish, this accumulation zone should continue holding strong.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZMCYKwGU/

Bitcoin remains in bullish momentum and is on track to form a new higher high at $95.7k, a key level that will determine whether BTC continues its rally. A breakout above this level would strengthen the bullish case, solidifying the trend and increasing the likelihood of BTC reaching new all-time highs.

On the downside, BTC holds strong support at $89.9k, which is expected to provide a solid foundation for price action. If Bitcoin fails to break $95.7k, it could enter a neutral structure, leading to a period of consolidation before the next major move.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 5 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/yzDspWn8/

Ethereum’s market structure remains weaker than Bitcoin’s, but momentum has shifted back in favour of the bulls. Overnight, ETH reclaimed $2,171, a critical level that signals renewed buying interest. This recovery is a promising start, but ETH still faces major hurdles.

The next key level to watch is $2,556, but Ethereum has a long way to go before reaching it. The 200MAs and a CPR level stand in its way, acting as significant resistance. For ETH to break through these levels, Bitcoin will need to break and hold above $100k, bringing broader market confidence.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 5 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Tariffs Over Already? Market Confusion as Rollback Talks Emerge

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 13:43:31 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

The past month of market movement has been dominated by tariff drama, and this volatility has carried into March. With Canadian and Mexican tariffs going live yesterday, markets continued to fall. Bitcoin dropped back to $81.5k, down from $95k the day before, while traditional markets like the S&P 500 also struggled, losing 1.25% in the last day and down 6% from its all-time high set just two weeks ago on 20th February.

These tariffs continue to weigh on risk-on assets, but safe havens such as the US 10-Year Bond (US10) and gold have seen gains. US10 has climbed over 6% since 12th February, while gold has continued its rally, setting a new all-time high against the AUD overnight.

Political Shifts: Ukraine, Tariffs, and Market Confusion

In the last 24 hours, several major political developments have unfolded. Trump has halted all US military aid to Ukraine—potentially as leverage to secure a minerals deal. If that was his intention, it worked. This morning, the US and Ukraine agreed to sign a minerals deal, marking a potential step toward resolving the conflict.

Meanwhile, just a day after imposing tariffs, the US Secretary of Commerce announced that Trump may roll back tariffs on Canada and Mexico tomorrow. If true, this adds further uncertainty around Trump’s tariff strategy. A rollback could trigger a rally in risk-on assets—but caution is warranted. We’ve seen Trump pause tariffs before, only to reimpose them, sending markets tumbling again.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.56)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/DOSyh1M8/

Sonic traded as low as $0.49 yesterday before finding support. The $0.51 level has played a key role in helping Sonic reclaim its accumulation zone at the daily close.

Despite weak price action over the past two weeks, Sonic has continued to perform exceptionally well on-chain. Broader market uncertainty and bearish sentiment have weighed on price, but when sentiment turns, Sonic’s strong on-chain fundamentals will likely drive price appreciation once again.

S is one of those coins that thrives in bullish conditions but struggles in bearish environments. When the market flips positive, expect Sonic to outperform.

Like many other altcoins, Sonic has fallen to lower prices on this correction than it was prior to the lows set a few days ago. S has now returned to a bullish order block, which should provide some demand and buying support. This is a key level to consider for dollar-cost averaging into Sonic positions.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZMCYKwGU/

Bitcoin bounced perfectly from the key $81.6k level overnight, reaching a high of $89k just a few hours ago. However, $89k remains a major resistance level, as it aligns with both the 200EMA and a crucial CPR level. This resistance rejected BTC, and it now looks set to fall back below all moving averages, likely retesting $85.2k.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 4 Mar: $ -32.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ht9Rjyvk/

Ethereum has bounced off $2,019 for the second time in two days, forming a double-bottom pattern and pushing higher. ETH is now trading at the key resistance level of $2,171, but has failed to break above it. It has spent the last six hours attempting a breakout, only to be rejected each time.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 4 Mar: $ +19.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

And Just Like That… The Momentum Is Gone

Tue, 04 Mar 2025 16:01:58 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

The massive rally following Donald Trump’s recent comments has evaporated just as quickly as it surged. It wasn’t just crypto that pulled back overnight—traditional markets also fell as further confirmation came that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect tomorrow, with China facing an additional 10% tariff increase, bringing its total to 20%. Trump confirmed these details in his speech this morning.

Before the speech, breaking news suggested he would be making an “investment announcement.” Given this came less than 24 hours after his posts regarding the Crypto Strategic Reserve, expectations were high that the announcement would revolve around cryptocurrency.

There was indeed an investment announcement, but not a single mention of crypto. As a result, the market has given back all of its Trump-driven gains. While Bitcoin remains around $86K—roughly where it was before Trump’s posts—many altcoins have dropped to levels lower than they were two days ago, with Ethereum seeing a sharp decline.

This drastic drop from yesterday’s high is anything but bullish. It has confirmed another lower high on the daily timeframe, reinforcing the medium-term bearish structure. Bitcoin’s vulnerability is evident, with the Fear and Greed Index plunging back to extreme fear at 15. This highlights a key trend: if bullish expectations aren’t met, the market falls. There doesn’t need to be explicitly bearish news—the mere absence of bullish reaffirmations is enough to send investors back into panic mode.

All hope is not lost, though. The upcoming Crypto Summit in a few days could provide much-needed clarity on the Crypto Strategic Reserve. However, if no confirmation emerges, things could get ugly…

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and we should expect more sharp corrections throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times before, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who followed my advice have reaped massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.59)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/1lzaOQe5/

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/OY7msapz/

Bitcoin has given back all its gains and has returned to the $85.2K level after a brief rally two days ago. This sharp drop overnight has erased bullish momentum, putting BTC at risk of losing its bullish structure if this level fails to hold. So far, support has held over the last few hours, but if it breaks, we are likely to retest the lower key support at $81.6K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 3 Mar: $ -54.4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cBw8NjZa/

After getting rejected at key resistance yesterday, ETH has fallen back below the bottom of the range and the key level of $2,171, flipping momentum and structure back to the bears. If the market continues to decline, ETH is likely to retest $2,000.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 3 Mar: $ +4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

We're so back... (part 734)

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 14:25:13 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

After spending all of February terrorising the crypto market with his tariff and trade wars—driving fear levels to their lowest since 2022 and sending Bitcoin below $80K—Donald Trump has now flipped the script. Not only has he announced a Crypto Summit at the White House on March 7, but more importantly, he has made two major posts on Truth Social revealing plans for a Crypto Strategic Reserve.

His first post stated that the reserve "includes XRP, SOL, and ADA," which instantly ignited rallies of 22% for SOL, 32% for XRP, and 60% for ADA. This bullish momentum spilled over into the wider market, pushing prices higher. Trump then followed up with another post, reassuring investors that other assets would also be included: "And, obviously, BTC and ETH, as other value cryptocurrencies, will be at the heart of the reserve." This sent Bitcoin and the rest of the market soaring.

Bitcoin Back Above $94K – Are We Back?

Bitcoin is now trading above $94K, having hit a high of $95K this morning—up 9% on the day. The broader crypto market added a staggering $330 billion in market cap within four hours of Trump’s first post.

Just two days ago, Bitcoin was in extreme fear territory, dipping below $80K for the first time in nearly five months. Now, it has surged 20% and seems to be making a strong comeback. Are we back? We very well could be…

The upcoming Crypto Summit at the White House is another key bullish catalyst. Its announcement alone sparked Bitcoin’s initial recovery to $85K, before Trump’s recent posts accelerated the rally. David Sacks is set to host, which has further fuelled buying interest.

The key question is: will the summit bring much-needed clarity on the Strategic Reserve? If so, Bitcoin could see another major rally, potentially pushing back above $100K. However, could this also be another "buy the hype, sell the news" event? Investors have been burned before—several previous summits failed to deliver on the Strategic Reserve, leaving the market disappointed. This time, anticipation is at its peak, and the outcome will likely determine the market’s next move.

Trump’s Market Influence – Volatility Here to Stay

It’s clear that the entire crypto market now revolves around one man. Trump’s impact on crypto has been unmatched over the last five months:

His election victory sent Bitcoin from $66K to $109K.
His TRUMP memecoin launch created a top 15 project in just 48 hours.
His tariffs and trade war rhetoric plunged the market back into extreme fear.
And now, his Strategic Reserve announcement has flipped sentiment bullish again.

This Trump-driven volatility is here to stay, and we should expect more sharp corrections throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times before, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who followed my advice have reaped massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.74)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/iBW7Og6Z/

As mentioned on Saturday, despite five consecutive red candles, I remained bullish as Sonic bounced off the 21EMA and held the bullish order block. My bullishness was spot on—we have already rebounded 10% from this level and look set to continue higher.

This recent low strengthens the bullish structure, forming a higher low—and now, we look for a higher high above $1.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/LW7w5RuI/

Overnight, Bitcoin exploded 9% following Trump’s Strategic Reserve posts, breaking through key resistance levels and moving averages with ease. The next area of interest is $95.7K, a major level that previously acted as strong support during Bitcoin’s consolidation phase last month. If bulls can reclaim this level, Bitcoin could be set for another leg higher.

On the downside, $92.5K is the key support level to watch. If Bitcoin pulls back, this area will need to hold to maintain the short-term bullish structure. A breakdown below it could open the door for a deeper retracement, but for now, momentum remains firmly in favour of the bulls.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 2 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/TwWP8ekr/

Ethereum followed Bitcoin’s lead, surging from the bottom of its range all the way to the top, where it met resistance at $2,556. After decisively breaking through its moving averages, ETH has now flipped them into support—a bullish sign for further continuation.

On this current pullback, we can expect ETH to test the 200EMA and 21EMA, which should provide strong support around $2,400. As long as this level holds, the uptrend remains intact, and a push beyond $2,556 could see Ethereum target higher levels.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 2 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Hits Lowest Price Since November – Is the Bottom In?

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 14:08:16 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Bitcoin has had another volatile 24 hours but is starting to show signs of bullish life. The price briefly broke below $80K for the first time since mid-November, hitting a low of $78.2K—down almost 8% on the day. However, we’re waking up to Bitcoin at $84.4K, down just 0.41% on the day. A remarkable bounce during the US trading session saw altcoins also make stellar recoveries, with some even closing positive despite being down over 8% intraday.

Have We Seen the Bottom?

Bitcoin’s 7.5% bounce from its intraday low suggests that bulls are beginning to step in. If this marks the bottom of the correction, the long-term bullish structure remains intact. However, it’s best to wait and see how the next few days unfold. With next week being relatively free of major catalysts, the crypto market should be able to move naturally, without external pressures.

Solana's Impressive Rebound

Solana has certainly impressed. After being down nearly 9% at one point, it’s now up almost 7% on the day—a staggering 17% turnaround from its intraday low. Quite the reversal, especially considering the immense selling pressure Solana has faced over the past month due to the closure of the memecoin casino and the upcoming Solana unlock.

So, why has SOL recovered so strongly?

Back in January, we discussed the potential launch of new cryptocurrency products on CME futures—specifically XRP and SOL. A leak suggested they would launch on 10th February, though that date came and went without an official announcement. However, we’ve now received confirmation that CME Group is set to introduce Solana (SOL) futures, pending review, with trading expected to begin on 17th March. This makes SOL only the third cryptocurrency to receive a futures product from CME Group.

Political Tensions and Market Reactions

The ongoing political uncertainty has taken another dramatic turn. President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in the Oval Office, and the discussions were far from friendly. A live televised exchange gave the public a rare look into what these high-stakes conversations are like behind closed doors.

Tensions peaked as Trump and Vance clashed with Zelensky over the Ukraine conflict, culminating in Zelensky being ‘kicked out’ of the White House. One might expect such an event to dampen hopes of a resolution in Eastern Europe, but traditional markets reacted positively—the S&P 500 closed up 1.6% on the day.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.68)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/MUc67cZZ/

Now, this is a chart that makes me happy. You may see five consecutive red daily candles, but I see buying strength. Sonic (S) has already bounced over 10% from its intraday low.

The bullish order block highlighted a few days ago was tagged at the wick low and immediately bought up with strength, while the 21EMA held firm for the daily close. This demand is extremely positive for S and is likely to continue as long as Bitcoin maintains a bid.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/LTDD6t96/

Bitcoin’s V-shaped recovery has provided hope for bulls, with price reclaiming the key level of $81.6K and moving back above both the 21EMA and 55EMA.

However, BTC is now struggling at a critical resistance of $85.2K. If it fails to break this level, it will confirm a lower high, reinforcing the bearish structure and momentum.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 28 Feb: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Fu1Cb5U9/

Ethereum has also attempted somewhat of a V-shaped recovery, mirroring Bitcoin’s move. ETH has reclaimed the key level of $2,171 and the 21EMA, but it has yet to test the 55EMA, which will likely act as a strong resistance.

If ETH fails to break above the 55EMA, it will strengthen the bearish structure and momentum—just like Bitcoin.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 28 Feb: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Mexico & Canada Tariffs Set to Go Live—Markets React Bearishly

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 12:45:26 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Trump continues to stand on business, and markets aren’t reacting well. The confirmation of tariffs going live—plus an additional 10% tariff on China—has only made things worse. With Canadian and Mexican tariffs set to go live on 4th March and China now facing a total 20% tariff.

And it’s not just Wall Street feeling the heat—US consumers are losing confidence fast. The latest data shows Consumer Confidence dropped 7 points in February, the biggest single-month decline since August 2021. That puts it at 98.3, dangerously close to its lowest level since 2022. On top of that, 67% of consumers now expect a recession within the next year—a 9-month high. The message is clear: people aren’t feeling great about the economy, and the uncertainty isn’t helping

All markets felt the effects of the overnight tariff confirmations, with Bitcoin dropping to a low of $82.6K before bouncing back. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fell 1.59%, Gold slid 1.34%, and the VIX (volatility index) surged 10%, marking its 7th straight green day. Fear is rising across the board, with Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index sitting at 16—in extreme fear territory.

Bitcoin ETFs have now seen six consecutive days of outflows, totalling $2.1 billion, with a record-breaking $1 billion withdrawn in a single day on 25th February—the largest single-day outflow on record. This reflects the uncertainty within the market, as the lack of ‘stability’ is pushing retail investors to cash out and rotate into ‘safer’ assets like gold.

SEC Drops Lawsuit Against Coinbase & Memecoins Get a Free Pass

The SEC has dropped its lawsuit against Coinbase, signalling a major shift in regulatory tone—a development that could be bullish for the industry. That’s not all—memecoins also dodged a bullet, as the SEC ruled they aren’t securities, stating that 'Meme coins typically have limited or no use or functionality.' While this decision aligns with previous regulatory stances, it still marks a significant moment for the crypto space.

While that might sound like a backhanded compliment, it’s actually a big deal. If memecoins aren’t securities, it sets a precedent that could benefit the broader altcoin market.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.69)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/88dAlSOi/

Sonic has now closed its fourth consecutive red candle and is approaching the 21EMA, which has provided support multiple times already—first at $0.50 and more recently over the past few days. Each time, S has wicked down to this level before bouncing, showing that buyers are stepping in.

This should provide a strong support zone, making it a potential buy-the-dip opportunity. If Bitcoin holds its ground and doesn’t drop further, Sonic could find a base at this moving average, bounce, and maintain its bullish structure.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/iEflTe7A/

Bitcoin continues to struggle for momentum, with any bullish attempt quickly met with strong selling pressure—largely due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs. BTC briefly reclaimed the 21EMA overnight but failed to hold, falling back below it.

There is some bullish hopium, though—last night’s low created the first higher low. If BTC can break above both the 21EMA and 55EMA and push past $87.1K, the bullish structure will shift back in favour of the bulls.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 27 Feb: $ -20.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/hwbBPD0i/

Ethereum continues to struggle after failing to break above the CPR level, forming lower highs and lower lows—not what any ETH holder wants to see. The 21EMA remains a major resistance and will continue to be a challenge until ETH can break above it.

For now, ETH seems likely to continue falling toward key support at $2,171 unless a significant reversal takes place.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 27 Feb: $ -19.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

More Tariffs, More Pain: Bitcoin Slides Lower

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 12:35:59 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

We started the month with trade wars brewing between the United States and Canada, Mexico, and China. Now, as February comes to a close, Trump has extended tariffs to Europe, announcing 25% tariffs on the region.

Just as we saw at the beginning of the month, markets reacted sharply. Within the first hour, the S&P 500 fell 0.78%, wiping over $500 billion in market cap, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.94% and Bitcoin over 3%. Bitcoin officially closed the day down 5%, hitting an intraday low of $82,250—its lowest price since 11 November. That marks four consecutive red days, hardly the way most envisioned closing out February.

New Tariffs by the United States:

25% tariffs on Canada
25% tariffs on Mexico
25% tariffs on the EU
10% tariffs on China
(Potential) 100% tariffs on BRICS

These tariffs have now caused US inflation expectations to nearly double, rising from ~2.7% to ~4.3% this year. The anticipated rate cuts in 2025 may not materialise if inflation continues climbing, which is not a great sign for risk-on assets.

Trump’s victory gave markets a pump, and now his tariffs are delivering the dump—or are they buying opportunities? The answer is both. The market is correcting due to the tariffs, but in doing so, it's presenting strong discounts across the board. From Bitcoin to altcoins, these pullbacks could yield significant gains for those who buy while the market is in extreme fear.

As Warren Buffett famously said, “Be greedy when others are fearful.” Right now, fear is at extreme levels, with the Fear & Greed Index at 10—its lowest reading since July 2022, when the Luna collapse sent Bitcoin below $20k. The key difference? Back then, Bitcoin was under $20k, and today it’s still above $80k—a strong sign of Bitcoin’s resilience and current strength.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.72)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/RRRJj6A5/

Despite closing red yesterday, Sonic (S) outperformed Bitcoin over the past 24 hours, declining at a slower rate. While S has now seen four consecutive red days, its bullish structure remains intact.

As long as S holds above the bottom of the highlighted bullish order block (OB), its bullish trend remains valid. Even if S retests this OB, strong buying demand within that zone should trigger a bounce.

Moreover, on-chain metrics for Sonic continue to outperform nearly every other blockchain, further strengthening its bullish case.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6tMlLpAZ/

Bitcoin is extremely bearish on lower timeframes, with little support between current prices and the high $70k region. The lack of support is due to BTC’s rapid ascent in November, following Trump’s election victory.

For Bitcoin to reduce the risk of breaking its long-term bullish structure, it must hold key support levels. The first sign of recovery would be reclaiming $85.2k, which would revive bullish sentiment.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 26 Feb: $ -162.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JP2t985X/

Ethereum’s attempt to reclaim the CPR level failed, as it was rejected at the confluence of that level and the 21EMA. Now trading lower, ETH looks set to retest key support at $2,171.

With bears in full control, ETH’s momentum and structure remain bearish. To regain bullish footing, BTC must first recover, as Ethereum’s movements remain closely tied to Bitcoin’s direction.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 26 Feb: $ -6.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.