Stormrake - Insights #China Tariffs

The Rake Review: May

Sun, 01 Jun 2025 19:17:19 +1000

May Marks Bitcoin’s Return — As the System Unravels

May proved what conviction looks like. As US debt soared past $37T, Bitcoin broke to new highs, reminding markets it’s not just resilient, it’s the alternative. In a system built on debt, Bitcoin isn’t reactionary. It’s the solution.

The Redemption Month; All Time Highs

April hinted at potential, May delivered.

Despite heavy macro headwinds, May opened with strength at $94K, before reclaiming the elusive $100K level for the first time since February. That milestone alone marked a psychological turning point, and the momentum that followed proved the bulls were firmly in control. Just weeks later, Bitcoin etched itself into the history books, printing a fresh all-time high just shy of $112K.

This wasn’t just another breakout, it was a statement.

And it came against a brutal backdrop: Q1 US GDP slowed more than expected, raising stagflation fears; Japanese 40-year bond yields surged to multi-decade highs; and a breach at Coinbase briefly rattled crypto sentiment. Tariff drama escalated once more, the US-China reprieve unravelled, the EU entered the fray, and in a bizarre legal twist, US courts blocked, then reinstated Trump-era tariffs.

Yet Bitcoin remained strong throughout the month and closed green.

Traditional indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, ended May in the green, reflecting a broader risk-on tone. Gold, by contrast, remained largely flat, showing neither fear nor fervour. But Bitcoin? Bitcoin stole the show. It didn’t just participate in the rally, it led it. Each pullback was met with a strong bid. Market structure remained bullish. The conviction was clear.

Those who stayed the course during April’s retrace to $74.5K, those who kept accumulating into the fear, were rewarded in full.

This isn’t just a bounce. This is a shift. Bitcoin isn’t merely reacting to global trends anymore, it’s starting to drive them. It’s playing both sides of the narrative: risk asset and store of value, speculation and safety. As it breaks price barriers, it’s also breaking category boundaries. May might well be remembered not just for a new all-time high — but for what that high represents.

Bitcoin 2025 Las Vegas: Political Signals, Macro Realities and the Institutional Infiltration

Stormrake featured at Bitcoin 2025 Las Vegas, with CEO Michael, COO Bisher, and Senior Trader Nick representing on the ground. This year’s conference marked a distinct tonal shift, not just from innovation to adoption, but from ideology to inevitability. The conversations were bigger, the booths flashier, and the guest list packed with influence.

The presence of key political figures — including Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and Vice President JD Vance — underscored how deeply Bitcoin has entered the political bloodstream. Whether in public speeches or quiet side conversations, it became evident that governments are no longer dismissing Bitcoin. They are quietly figuring out how to own it. As Bisher put it, "Bitcoin adoption isn’t just going to be driven by cypherpunks and tech libertarians. It’s going to involve governments, banks, corporations and legacy institutions."

What’s unfolding is a full-spectrum integration. The idea of Bitcoin as an outsider asset is evaporating. The institutions are no longer coming. They're already here, and they’re building. Yet retail is still in its early innings. "We need to see retail step in before TradFi scoops up all the cheap sats," Bisher added. With Bitcoin now trading above $100K, and still under 7% of the global population having interacted with the network, the message was clear: we’re still early, but not for long.

Amid the fanfare, Lyn Alden delivered what may have been the conference’s defining moment. Her speech methodically dismantled the long-term sustainability of US fiscal policy. The federal government’s debt service costs are ballooning, not shrinking, and every attempt to rein in deficits simply results in more debt issuance. “If they raise rates, they borrow more to pay the interest. If they cut rates, inflation accelerates,” she explained. “There’s no clean way out.”

Her conclusion was stark. The fiat system is in its final chapter. The debt spiral can’t be stopped, only inflated away. And that’s exactly why Bitcoin has to rise. It’s the only major monetary asset that can’t be printed, diluted or manipulated by central banks. As Lyn framed it: “We’ve entered the last phase of the fiat cycle.” Or, in her words: “Nothing stops this train.”

That line landed with weight — not just as a macro thesis, but as a call to prepare. When the train is speeding toward systemic debasement, the smartest move isn’t to ride it out. It’s to step off the tracks and opt into a parallel system that can’t be manipulated.

That perspective resonated across the Stormrake desk. Alden’s session was a wake-up call, backed by data, showing why Bitcoin is not just an opportunity — it’s a necessity. In a world increasingly defined by debt and debanking, Bitcoin’s neutral, borderless, incorruptible nature becomes not just compelling, but critical.

Stormrake’s team gathered dozens of insights from the event floor:

Debanking is a global issue. Everyone’s affected — from retail investors trying to access crypto to high-level political figures. Bitcoin provides a monetary escape hatch.
Utility is scaling fast. As Nick noted, Bitcoin is already being used for everything from loans to services like golf bookings. Real-world application is catching up to ideology.
Amongst altcoin debates, one thing is clear: “BTC is the best. Chuck out the rest.”
The Lightning Network has made serious strides, becoming a frictionless way to send and receive Bitcoin for everyday transactions.
Even among the most prominent Bitcoiners, such as Dorsey and Saylor, there’s still debate: is Bitcoin a store of value or a medium of exchange? Bisher summarised it best: “It’s both, and that’s what makes it so powerful.”

Bitcoin 2025 wasn’t just a celebration. It was an acceleration. The discussions aren’t theoretical anymore. They're tactical, political and strategic. What used to be ideology is now policy. And as we push deeper into the digital monetary age, it’s becoming clear that Bitcoin isn’t disrupting finance anymore. It’s redefining it.

What Could June Have in Store for Bitcoin?

May has wrapped with an 11.1% gain — a strong monthly close by historical standards, but somewhat underwhelming in light of the new all-time high near $112K just ten days ago. Bitcoin now hovers above $100K, technically fragile and flirting with key support. What looked like a powerful breakout has softened into a pullback, and the market tone has shifted from euphoric to cautious.

June now arrives as the final chapter in the first half of 2025. Bitcoin began the year at $93.5K, and many expected to see it well north of $120K by this point. That narrative is in flux. With price structure now forming lower highs and a confirmed lower low, Bitcoin has broken its bullish structure and is teetering near the edge of a larger correction.

The zone between $98K and $101K — aligning with the 55-day EMA and an unfilled fair value gap — is the critical battleground. If it fails, the current pullback could deepen and challenge the broader uptrend. But if bulls defend this area, they may have the foundation for a recovery rally.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/V2LrzdN8/

From a historical lens, June has delivered positive returns in 6 of the past 14 years, with an average return of 7.91%. If Bitcoin follows that average, a 7.91% gain from current levels would place it around $113K — back into all-time high territory and re-establishing bullish structure. Momentum above that level could clear the way to test $120K–122K, the next major psychological and structural resistance zone.

But June’s path won’t be defined by charts alone.

Macro Pressures and Trade Tensions

This month opens under the weight of intensifying trade disputes. On June 4, new US steel import duties are set to go live, marking a fresh escalation in tariff policy. The US Court of International Trade is also due to respond to the Trump-era Liberation tariffs appeal, with rulings expected between June 4–9. The Trump administration’s response will follow, potentially setting the tone for economic policy for the rest of the year — and possibly the election cycle.

Trump’s camp has already made it clear: if blocked, they’ll seek alternative channels to implement their trade agenda. This is less about specific policy details and more about broader uncertainty — a climate where risk assets like Bitcoin often thrive or dive, depending on the market’s risk appetite.

Meanwhile, the growing rift with China is expected to dominate the macro narrative into mid-month. Any escalation in tariffs or retaliatory rhetoric could inject volatility across global markets.

Breakdown or Breakout

June stands at a crossroads. Technically, Bitcoin is at risk of deeper correction, but it remains within reach of its recent highs. The key structural zone between $98K and $101K will be crucial — not just for short-term support, but for preserving the broader uptrend into the second half of the year.

Macro headwinds, including intensifying trade disputes and rising fiscal pressure, continue to shape the backdrop. The path from here may not be smooth — but the long-term direction of travel remains unchanged.

For long-term investors, these moments are less about market timing and more about strategic positioning. Pullbacks are not problems — they’re opportunities. Periods of weakness offer the chance to strengthen your allocation, reaffirm your thesis, and continue accumulating ahead of the next leg higher.

Conviction matters more than precision. The narrative is still unfolding — but the case for Bitcoin has never been clearer.

In the News:

US Credit Rating Downgraded for the First Time in History:

For the first time ever, the United States has lost its last remaining triple-A credit rating, with Moody’s citing its spiralling $37 trillion debt load and rising interest obligations. The downgrade reflects growing concern over Washington’s deteriorating fiscal discipline, noting that US debt levels are now significantly higher than those of similarly rated sovereigns. The implications are serious — higher borrowing costs for the government, increased rates across credit markets, and further strain on an already indebted global system. It’s another domino in the broader macro picture that reinforces why scarce, non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin continue to gain relevance.

Traditional Bitcoin Adoption Accelerates:

May wasn’t just about price discovery — it also marked a major leap forward in institutional Bitcoin adoption. Coinbase officially joined the S&P 500, becoming the first cryptocurrency company ever to be listed in the index. This means that every fund tracking the S&P now has indirect exposure to crypto, whether they realise it or not.

At the same time, corporates continued to stack. Gamestop disclosed a $500 million Bitcoin purchase, while Trump Media & Technology Group Corp announced plans to accumulate $2.5 billion worth. These balance sheet moves mirror a broader trend: sovereign and corporate treasuries are treating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. With the UAE and Pakistan also stepping in to establish national Bitcoin reserves, the message is clear — you're not bullish enough.

Australia Sparks Legal Debate on Bitcoin and Capital Gains Tax:

In a groundbreaking legal case, a Victorian magistrate challenged Bitcoin’s classification as property under Australian tax law, arguing instead that Bitcoin should be treated as money. Since a 2014 ruling, Bitcoin has been subject to capital gains tax (CGT) in Australia, similar to property. However, if Bitcoin were officially recognised as a foreign currency or legal tender, CGT would no longer apply — just as it doesn’t when converting between foreign fiat currencies. While the judge doesn’t have the authority to change legislation, the case has opened the door to a broader regulatory debate. It could eventually force higher courts — and lawmakers — to reconsider Bitcoin’s legal and financial status within Australia’s tax system.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in May 2025:

Bitcoin rose by 11.1% in May.
Ethereum stole the show, up 41.1% in May.
Tron flipping Cardano was the only change inside the top 10 this month.
The total crypto market cap grew by 10.31% to $3.23 trillion.
Hyperliquid was the dominant crypto outside of the top 10, outshining all majors and increasing by 64.4%.

Video of the month:

'Nothing Stops This Train' w/ Lyn Alden | Bitcoin 2025

Education: The Debt Spiral and Why Bitcoin Is the Lifeboat

The U.S. government is now operating inside a pressure cooker of its own making.

As of May, national debt has surged past $37 trillion, with interest payments now exceeding $1 trillion annually — more than defence or Medicare. The debt-to-GDP ratio has breached 133%, and the latest spending bills are set to expand deficits even further in the years ahead. These figures aren’t just big — they’re systemically unsustainable.

As Lyn Alden made clear at Bitcoin 2025, the US is no longer managing debt — it’s managing optics. The economic machine now runs on borrowed time and borrowed money. Every option leads back to the same outcome: a larger debt pile, and increasing dependence on currency debasement to keep the machine running.

“Raise interest rates and the government borrows more to cover the cost. Cut rates and inflation takes over. Either way, debt continues growing.” — Lyn Alden

The Fork in the Road: Control vs Reality

The US has made its choice — austerity is off the table. Instead of confronting the core issue, policymakers are focused on rigging demand for Treasuries and suppressing long-term yields to avoid a debt servicing crisis. Among the strategies being pursued:

Adjusting Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) rules to force banks to hold more Treasuries.
Proposing legislation that requires stablecoin issuers to back tokens with US government debt.
Promoting narratives that GDP can outpace debt growth — not through productivity, but through inflation-driven nominal gains.

In short, they're not solving the problem — they're masking it. The result is a deliberate currency debasement strategy, dressed up as financial engineering.

Bitcoin: Designed for This Environment

This macro backdrop is exactly what Bitcoin was designed for.

As trust in traditional monetary policy erodes, capital begins seeking alternatives. Bitcoin offers a monetary system outside of government control, one that cannot be inflated away or manipulated to serve political agendas. It is decentralised, scarce, and transparent — everything the fiat system increasingly is not.

Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset. It’s becoming a strategic allocation for institutions, corporations, and sovereigns alike. Its function is not just to grow wealth, but to preserve it — especially in a world where fiat assets guarantee long-term real losses.

“Bitcoin is doing what bonds used to do — protecting capital in an age of monetary dysfunction.”

Urgency in Rotation

Investors anchored to traditional assets — government bonds, cash deposits, unhedged real estate — are facing a new reality: their value is eroding in real terms. Monetary policy is no longer aimed at stability. It’s aimed at survival.

Smart capital is already rotating — not because of panic, but because of structural logic. When trust in fiat wavers and inflation eats at purchasing power, capital naturally moves into assets that are neutral, scarce and outside the system.

How Stormrake Can Help

At Stormrake, our mission is simple: to help people escape the failing fiat system and transition into a sound, sovereign monetary future through Bitcoin.

In a world burdened by unsustainable debt, policy dysfunction, and ongoing currency debasement, Bitcoin isn’t just an asset — it’s a way out. But accessing it with security, confidence, and strategy isn’t always easy. That’s where we come in.

We offer individuals, SMSFs, trusts, and corporate entities a direct avenue to gain Bitcoin exposure — with seamless execution, deep liquidity, and access to institutional-grade custody. Whether you're allocating for the first time or building on an existing position, Stormrake is built to serve serious investors with precision and security.

Bitcoin offers an escape — but more importantly, it offers a path forward. A chance to opt into a better system.

The system is shifting. The train is moving. Are you going to stay on — or step off and choose something better?

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2022 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

The Rake Review: April

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 00:07:51 +1000

April Hints at Bitcoin’s True Potential

For the longest time, people have debated whether Bitcoin is a risk-on or risk-off asset. Is it a levered Nasdaq, or is it digital gold? What if I told you neither side is wrong — and that April, one of the wildest months in recent memory, proved Bitcoin is, in fact, both.

Foreshadowing Bitcoin’s Potential:

Bitcoin was created to be separate from traditional markets, institutions, and other centralised entities. Many liken it to gold, the original form of hard money — and for good reason. Bitcoin shares many properties with gold: both are scarce, inflation-proof, and serve as a store of value, making Bitcoin a new-age version of hard money — ‘Digital Gold’.

Throughout most of its lifespan, Bitcoin's price has moved independently from traditional stock markets, often following a four-year cycle aligned with the halving event. Looking back at the last 15 years, this cycle typically consists of three bullish years followed by one bear market year. This pattern has held true across the last three full cycles.

However, in recent years Bitcoin has gained institutional traction, and with that, a growing correlation to traditional assets — particularly risk-on markets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Many now refer to it as a levered version of the QQQ, or virtually another tech stock.

Over the last few years, we’ve seen Bitcoin react similarly to traditional markets during major global events — from the Covid pandemic to interest rate decisions and geopolitical shocks. Through the confusion that was April, Bitcoin acted as both. It rallied during a risk-on environment alongside the Nasdaq when the 90-day tariff pause was announced — Bitcoin rose 8%, and the Nasdaq jumped 13%. Then Easter ushered in a risk-off tone as the US 10-Year Note yield surged above 4.40%, and major equities like Nvidia and Amazon dropped 4.5% and 3.1% respectively. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continued its climb, and gold pressed on to new all-time highs.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/GhR3TInM/

This price behaviour was further reflected in cross-asset correlations — a measure of how closely two assets move together. In simple terms, a correlation of +1 means two assets move exactly the same way, –1 means they move in opposite directions, and 0 means there’s no relationship at all. A chart comparing Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq and gold shows that, as of April 28, BTC had a strong positive correlation with both the Nasdaq (+0.64) and gold (+0.70). Earlier in the month, Bitcoin had tracked equities closely, reaching a high correlation of +0.81 with the Nasdaq around April 1, but later dipped into negative territory before recovering. Its correlation with gold, meanwhile, flipped from negative (–0.29) to strongly positive over the same month. This dual correlation is rare — and highlights Bitcoin’s unique position: rallying alongside both risk assets and safe havens, proving it doesn’t neatly fit into traditional asset categories.

This past month has shown Bitcoin’s versatility more clearly than ever. Its ability to thrive in both risk-on and risk-off conditions marks a radical shift in how it trades — and perhaps how it's perceived. There is no other asset like it. Gold rallies in risk-off environments and during market uncertainty, while traditional stocks thrive in risk-on conditions. April proved that Bitcoin can behave like both — and rally in both. What we’re witnessing may just be the early signs of Bitcoin’s evolving role in global markets — no longer confined to a single narrative or asset class. As adoption grows and its use case continues to expand, Bitcoin’s ability to bridge the gap between growth and defensive assets could make it one of the most dynamic and adaptable financial instruments of the next decade.

The future is promising — and Bitcoin is only just getting started.

Stormrake at the Gold Coast Gold Conference:

This month, Stormrake Co-Founder and CEO Michael Milmeister presented at the Gold Coast Gold Conference, joining a timely conversation on hard money in an era of accelerating monetary instability. Our message was clear: Bitcoin and gold are not rivals — they’re allies in the same fight against a failing fiat system. Both are scarce, decentralised, and resilient to debasement. Far from being competitors, Bitcoin is the ultimate compliment to any gold bug’s portfolio — delivering the core properties of hard money, with the added advantages of portability, programmability, and a 24/7 global market.

The Most Confusing Month in Recent History:

We’ve just witnessed what’s probably the most confusing month since March 2020. April 2025 will go down in the history books — and be studied for years. Everyone expected volatility, especially with Trump setting a new precedent during his second stint in office.

The month kicked off with chaos. Trump’s Liberation Day was a shock to all, with tariffs slapped on 185 countries — each receiving a minimum of 10%, and China hit hardest at 34% (just the beginning for them). Markets tumbled. Over the next week, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq entered bear market territory (a 20% correction from their peaks), and Bitcoin dropped from $88K to a low of $74.5K.

At this stage, panic was everywhere. Fake tariff headlines triggered 5% intraday swings in the S&P 500. China began retaliating. Sentiment hit multi-year lows. Gold surged to new all-time highs day after day, while the S&P 500 rivalled the worst periods of Covid, the Global Financial Crisis, and the dot-com bubble in terms of four-day drawdowns. Investor confidence collapsed. The S&P 500’s Fear and Greed Index hit a reading of 3. Crypto markets also slipped into extreme fear — yet Bitcoin held above February’s low of 10.

People were chanting that it’s over — the bear market is back. Bitcoin’s headed for the $60Ks, maybe even the $50Ks. But how often are the majority right in predicting market direction? Not very…

At that moment, Buffett’s timeless quote should’ve been ringing in every investor’s ears: “Be greedy when others are fearful.” For Stormrake clients who acted on that, the reward came fast. We emphasised the opportunity in this down period — and it didn’t last long. Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause, and risk-on markets snapped back. Equities climbed out of bear market territory, and Bitcoin reclaimed $80K.

After rebounding off the $74.5K low on April 8, Bitcoin entered a tight 8-day consolidation phase between $83K–$86K, reflecting market indecision as traders processed the tariff headlines and macro mess. This base formation set the stage for the post-Easter breakout, where Bitcoin surged more than 11% in just 2.5 days — a risk-off rally that defied broader equity weakness. From the April low to its late-month high, Bitcoin traded in a 28.63% range — one of the widest monthly spreads in over a year, underscoring April’s extreme volatility.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/25zfIkkg/

While battling China, Trump also reignited a personal feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell — a one-sided affair, with Trump hurling online abuse and demanding immediate rate cuts, while Powell stood firm, reiterating that policy decisions would remain data-driven.

After its worst first quarter in years, Bitcoin is now up 15% in April and 12% since Liberation Day, despite all the chaos. Meanwhile, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain down since April 2. Gold is up 5%.

All of this reinforces Bitcoin’s versatility — thriving in risk-on and risk-off environments alike — and offers a glimpse of what’s to come.

In the News:

Mantra (OM) Collapse:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/K6NaBPac/

Not all headlines were positive. Mantra (OM) — the 19th largest crypto project and leading Real World Asset (RWA) protocol — collapsed in under 12 hours. At midnight, OM was trading at $6.50 with a market cap near $6B. By midday, it had plunged to $1.00, wiping out $5B in value — a staggering 90% drop. Many red flags had been ignored…

90-Day Tariff Pause:

We touched on the bullish impact of the 90-day tariff pause — here’s a deeper take. Tariffs remain in place. All countries still face a 10% minimum. Canada and Mexico are still at 25%, and China is at 145%. Additional 25% tariffs still apply on imports of autos, steel, and aluminium. This pause doesn’t remove tariffs — just delays the full return of Liberation Day levels. Unless agreements are reached, the full tariff regime may return in late July.

Australian Super Funds Hacked:

Some of Australia’s largest superannuation funds were hit by a major cyberattack this month. Affected: AustralianSuper, Hostplus, REST, Australian Retirement Trust, and Insignia — collectively managing over $700B. Pension-phase members were targeted, login access suspended, and mass panic followed.

This reinforces why we advocate for holding Bitcoin in your Self-Managed Super Fund — take control of your retirement, don’t leave it in the hands of third parties.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in April 2025:

Bitcoin rose 15.1% in April
Ethereum struggled, ending the month down 2% despite Bitcoin’s strength
The top 10 coins and their rankings remained unchanged from March
Memecoins led the charge — 3 of the top 5 performers in the top 100 were memecoins
After a 50% gain in April, Sui is now just three spots away from breaking into the top 10

Video of the month:

'What is Hard Money?' - Michael Milmeister, Stormrake

Education: Bitcoin’s Correlation to M2 Money Supply

The most important driver of long-term asset performance isn’t just hype or headlines—it’s liquidity. And the most reliable proxy for global liquidity is the M2 money supply. M2 includes cash, checking deposits, and near-money like savings—essentially the fuel for risk-on behaviour in markets. When M2 expands, it signals the presence of excess capital. That capital doesn’t sit still—it searches for returns, first moving into equities and real estate, then into higher-beta assets like crypto. When M2 contracts, this process reverses: risk assets draw down as liquidity dries up.

Historically, Bitcoin’s price has shown a clear lagging correlation with global M2 by approximately 70–90 days. This lag is a function of capital rotation. Institutional money doesn’t immediately flow from new liquidity into crypto—it first works through treasuries, credit, then equities, and finally into digital assets. This is why crypto is often the tail-end beneficiary of monetary expansion, but also why it tends to outperform when the liquidity tide is truly rising.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Eo0QuJ4o/

The chart above brings this relationship to life. The yellow line represents global M2 (shifted forward 90 days); the candles represent BTC/USD.

M2 peaked in November 2024—Bitcoin topped out in mid-January 2025, almost 80 days later.
M2 bottomed in late January; Bitcoin followed with its local low in mid-April.
M2 has since surged higher—suggesting the next move for Bitcoin could already be underway.

This pattern aligns with previous macro cycles. During the 2020–2021 bull market, M2 in the United States grew by over 25% YoY, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rise from $10K to $69K. That growth was fuelled by quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus—both of which drove an enormous surge in monetary aggregates. As soon as the Fed began tapering and M2 growth turned negative in late 2022, risk assets faltered.

We’re now seeing subtle signs of a shift back toward expansion. The Federal Reserve has begun re injecting liquidity into the system—through reverse repo declines, balance sheet management, and increased Treasury issuance supported by indirect monetisation. Meanwhile, the ECB and BOJ remain accommodative, helping drive global M2 higher once again.

It’s not just theory—it’s the maths of the macro cycle.

If history rhymes, we are in the early stages of Bitcoin’s next major leg. With M2 having bottomed in January and already climbing steadily, Bitcoin could track higher into late Q2 and Q3, if the 70–90 day lag remains consistent.

This framework offers more than a narrative—it provides a data-driven lens for anticipating crypto market direction. It underscores the importance of watching liquidity flows rather than price alone. Traders may focus on patterns, but macro investors track the current. Right now, that current is turning.

Liquidity leads. Bitcoin follows. It’s a proven formula—fade it at your own risk.

Memes of the Month

Written By Alexandar Artis

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If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.