Stormrake - Insights #Crypto Executive Order

Bitcoin Battles $100k Ahead of Key FOMC Decision

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 14:06:19 +1100

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Bitcoin is currently grappling to hold above the crucial $100k level as the market braces for tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. While BTC consolidates around this psychological threshold, altcoins have fared worse, retracing significantly. Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are down by 3.5%, with most other projects declining by over 5%. However, two notable exceptions are XRP and ONDO, both of which have remained resilient amidst the broader market sell-off.

This resilience follows the announcement of a partnership between Ondo Finance and Ripple.

Ripple x Ondo Finance Partnership Sparks Interest

Ondo Finance—a previous Stormrake Spotlight and a standout project in real-world asset tokenisation—has teamed up with Ripple to launch tokenised US Treasuries on the XRP Ledger. This collaboration underscores Ondo’s ambition to bridge traditional finance with blockchain and highlights Ripple’s ongoing efforts to expand its use cases.

Both XRP and ONDO benefit from strong institutional and community support. XRP continues to draw attention due to its potential links with US government entities, while ONDO is backed by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. This partnership has contributed to their relative outperformance against a bearish market backdrop.

Market Eyes Jerome Powell’s Speech

With less than 20 hours until Jerome Powell takes the stage to discuss the FOMC’s latest interest rate decision, market participants are bracing for heightened volatility. While there’s a 97.9% probability of no rate change, traders are eager to parse Powell’s tone.

Since the last hawkish presser in mid-December, economic data has sent mixed signals. While job numbers have been weak, core CPI figures suggest a slowing in inflation. Whether Powell maintains a hawkish stance or adopts a more dovish tone remains to be seen, but the next 24 hours promise to be pivotal.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($3,085)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y9lTfGqF/

Ethereum continues its downward trend but is finding support within a critical accumulation zone. Over the past two days, ETH has repeatedly bounced from the zone’s lower boundary. If Ethereum can establish a base here, it could signal a bottoming pattern, potentially setting the stage for a run toward higher targets in the coming weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GVCK5yj3/

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the $104k level, failing to break above key moving averages. Consequently, BTC has retreated and is now fighting to stay above $100k. This level is crucial; if BTC holds and forms a higher low, it could create bullish divergence, offering some hope for a market rebound.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 28 Jan: $ -11.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/98OEAgaV/

Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s struggle, having failed to flip $3,207 into support while also being rejected by the 21 and 55 EMAs. ETH is now hovering near $3,000, a key level that could provide much-needed support. Should ETH hold and build momentum here, it may make another attempt to reclaim the moving averages and retest $3,207.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 28 Jan: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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A Volatile Start to an Eventful Week Ahead

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 14:01:39 +1100

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The ‘DeepSeek crash’ reverberated through traditional markets yesterday, leading to a sharp 1.54% drop in the S&P 500 and a near 5% intraday plunge for the Nasdaq. NVIDIA, which has been a standout performer in recent months, suffered a historic setback. The tech giant closed the day down 17%, wiping out approximately $590 billion in market capitalisation—a record-breaking single-day loss for any stock, surpassing its previous record of $311 billion.

Crypto Markets React and Rebound

As discussed in yesterday’s Morning Note, crypto markets were not immune to the fallout. Bitcoin (BTC) dipped nearly 5%, reaching a low of $97.7k, while the majority of altcoins endured losses exceeding 10%. However, in a departure from traditional markets, crypto displayed resilience. Coins like SUI and XRP recovered after intraday losses of 10%, closing up by 3% and 1%, respectively.

Bitcoin clawed its way back to close at $102k, just $500 below its daily open—a strong recovery that signals underlying strength amidst broader uncertainty.

The volatility led to approximately $820 million in leverage liquidations. While this figure may seem substantial, it is relatively moderate compared to some of the more dramatic liquidation days seen in the past month.

Market Outlook: Promising Rebound, but Risks Remain

While this bounce is encouraging and Bitcoin has reclaimed its broader trading range, caution is still warranted. Thursday morning’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting looms large, with market participants nearly unanimous in expecting no rate cut. All eyes are on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference following the decision. His tone will likely set the direction for both traditional and crypto markets in the coming weeks.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($3,175)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/O87ELq4s/

Ethereum has rebounded perfectly from the lower boundary of its accumulation zone, climbing 5.41% from its recent low. Despite its current bearish structure and momentum, this accumulation zone remains a proven support level. For investors seeking undervalued opportunities, ETH at these levels presents a compelling case.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/tCfri9Ua/

Bitcoin briefly dipped below the critical $100k support before staging a recovery. It is now forming a ‘W’-shaped pattern, with $100k proving to be a strong support level, bolstered by the top CPR line at $99.4k. To solidify this rebound, Bitcoin must reclaim all key moving averages and break above $104k. Achieving this would confirm the recent low as a short-term bottom, setting the stage for a potential retest of all-time highs.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 27 Jan: $ -158.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/R3djGOwn/

Ethereum’s recovery mirrors Bitcoin’s, with a similar ‘W’-shaped pattern. However, it currently faces significant resistance at $3,207 and the 55-EMA. Reclaiming this resistance and flipping it into support is crucial for ETH to regain bullish momentum.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 27 Jan: $ -84.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Will DeepSeek Trigger a Deeper Dive for Bitcoin?

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 13:53:53 +1100

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After a relatively quiet weekend for the crypto markets, Monday morning opened with a sharp retracement as traditional markets reacted to the unveiling of DeepSeek AI.

The US markets saw significant turbulence, with NASDAQ futures (NQ!) plunging over 250 points (a 1.2% drop) at the open. Approximately one-third of the NASDAQ is composed of AI-related stocks, which have been a key driver of this year’s bullish momentum. Unsurprisingly, the emergence of DeepSeek AI—an open-source competitor—has triggered concerns, leading to a notable sell-off in tech-heavy indices.

This volatility has rippled into the crypto markets, pulling Bitcoin and altcoins lower. Bitcoin remains within its established range, with the lower boundary around $100k and the upper boundary at its all-time high near $109k. Current price action suggests that Bitcoin may test the lower end of this range ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision scheduled for Thursday.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($3,203)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/2nqqGxpT/

Our new Stormrake Spotlight focuses and provides a more in depth analysis on undervalued cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum (ETH) offering a compelling risk-reward profile at current levels. ETH is currently trading within a key accumulation zone between $3,000 and $3,200, presenting a potential opportunity for strategic accumulation.

As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Ethereum has yet to experience a significant rally comparable to those seen in other digital assets. Notably, Donald Trump's World Liberty Financials lists Ethereum among its largest holdings, further highlighting its appeal in high-stakes portfolios.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/qvsMxScD/

After an extended period of consolidation, Bitcoin has dropped over 3% in the wake of the DeepSeek AI correction. This correction has broken Bitcoin's neutral structure, flipping market momentum in favour of the bears.

The $100k level is now a critical area to watch and could act as a support zone. A sustained hold at this level might provide a foundation for a rebound, depending on upcoming macroeconomic developments.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 26 Jan: (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/U4JFQAb6/

Ethereum has mirrored Bitcoin's trajectory, dropping nearly 4% in recent hours. The bearish momentum has firmly taken hold, bringing ETH to the critical level of $3,207. As noted earlier, ETH is now trading within the accumulation zone between $3,000 and $3,200, where buyers may step in to provide support.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 26 Jan: (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Consolidates: Awaiting the Next Catalyst

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 13:45:47 +1100

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We’re now 24 hours on from the signing of the first pro-crypto executive order, and despite some initial volatility, Bitcoin remains in consolidation. Similar to its previous range between $90k and $100k, Bitcoin is now exhibiting comparable price action between $100k and its all-time high of $109.9k.

The inauguration of President Trump, coupled with the highly anticipated crypto executive order, served as the necessary catalyst to propel Bitcoin beyond its prior consolidation zone and reclaim the $100k level. However, the hype and anticipation surrounding the event ultimately outpaced the reality. Many had expected Trump to explicitly reference crypto in his speech or announce a strategic Bitcoin Reserve shortly after taking office. Neither materialised, resulting in some short-term sell-offs. That said, his executive order and the establishment of a dedicated crypto task force within the SEC have laid the groundwork for a crypto-friendly administration, potentially prolonging this bull market.

The current consolidation range of $100k to $109k is likely to persist until the next catalyst emerges to drive price action. Fortunately, we won’t have to wait long—Thursday morning brings the first FOMC interest rate decision of the year. With a 99.5% probability of rates being held steady, the decision itself is almost a foregone conclusion. Instead, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Should Powell maintain his hawkish tone from December’s presser, Bitcoin could test the lower end of the range and potentially dip below $100k. Conversely, any hint of dovish sentiment would likely propel Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs.

Stormrake Spotlight: Trump (TRUMP) ($29.16)

Trump (TRUMP) has dropped 14%, slipping below $30, and is currently ranked as the 32nd largest cryptocurrency. This marks the end of the current iteration of the Stormrake Spotlight as you know it—stay tuned next week for a fresh, enhanced format!

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/3JP5pXoW/

Bitcoin is hovering just above the critical $104k level, which coincides with a major CPR pivot and the 55 EMA. Holding this level is essential for maintaining bullish momentum and favouring a move to the upper range of $109k. Should Bitcoin lose $104k, a retest of $100k appears likely.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 24 Jan: $ + 175.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/I0Sqv9RP/

Ethereum is retreating towards the lower end of its range after failing to break through the key CPR level at $3,440. Should momentum continue to favour the bears, a retest of $3,207 appears imminent.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 24 Jan: $ + 7.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.