Stormrake - Insights #Crypto Week

The Rake Review: August 2025

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 17:12:17 +1000

From All Time Highs to Bear Market Calls

August was a month of extremes for Bitcoin, with fresh all-time highs, sharp reversals, and a whale-triggered sell-off that shook sentiment. The cycle clock is ticking, and with rate cuts approaching and macro conditions shifting, the question now is whether the market has one more leg higher or if the top is already in.

A Month of Extremes: New Highs, Whale Dumps, and Macro Whiplash

They say the best thing you can do after buying Bitcoin is forget about it and come back in ten years. You miss the euphoric rallies and the soul-crushing drawdowns, but when you zoom out a decade later, odds are you are sitting on something worth significantly more than what you paid.

But for many, the volatility in between is part of the appeal. It draws speculators in, even as seasoned Bitcoiners grow numb to it. This August, that volatility was back in full force.

Coming into the month, two factors were expected to shape price action: the ongoing geopolitical tension between Ukraine and Russia, and the latest US inflation data. Both played their part. But the most dramatic twist came from a whale no one saw coming.

August began, like much of the year, with macro tensions. Putin floated a fresh ceasefire proposal that was swiftly dismissed by Zelenskyy. Reports of progress surfaced, with a potential trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin discussed. Nothing came of it in the end, but the market moved quickly. Bitcoin surged to a fresh all-time high above $124K following inflation data.

Ironically, while Bitcoin was created to hedge against inflation, it now reacts directly to inflation prints, rate cut speculation and the words of one man: Jerome Powell. As Bitcoin continues to mature, its correlation with traditional markets is strengthening. The same forces moving equities are moving crypto.

The first major driver was CPI. It came in slightly better than expected and gave Bitcoin the momentum to break out and push to new all time highs. But just days later, PPI told a very different story. The hotter-than-expected print triggered a sharp sell-off in risk markets. Bitcoin tumbled. Then Powell spoke.

Arguably the most influential voice in markets right now, Powell delivered a dovish tone in his policy speech that sent risk assets flying. Bitcoin rallied hard and attempted to reclaim the lost momentum post PPI data. It looked like momentum was back. Then the second domino fell.

A Bitcoin whale offloaded 24,000 BTC the day after Powell’s speech. That single move, worth $2.7 billion at the time, wiped over $4,000 off the price in a matter of minutes. As large as that number is, it was just a fraction of this whale’s holdings. They still have around 150,000 BTC sitting in their wallet. For comparison, last month eight wallets moved 80,000 BTC and triggered another market drop. If this whale ever decides to clear out their entire bag, the short-term impact would be massive. But for long-term buyers with patience, those kinds of moves could offer generational entry points.

Is Time Running Out for the Bull Run?

It’s the uncomfortable question that tends to get louder as prices climb higher: are we nearing the end of the bull run?

Bitcoin has now spent nearly three years climbing out from its 2022 cycle low, following a rhythm that long-time holders know well. This market structure, often referred to as the four-year cycle, has defined every major bull and bear market since Bitcoin’s inception. The premise is simple. A halving triggers a multi-year rally, followed by a year-long cooldown. Historically, cycle tops have formed around 500 days after each halving.

Right now, we are 490 days out from the most recent halving on 20 April 2024. Bitcoin recently tagged $124K and is beginning to show signs of slowing. That puts us right in the historical window where previous tops have occurred. The chart below shows the time elapsed between each halving and its corresponding cycle peak. Once again, Bitcoin appears to be tracking the same cadence.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/X1SUCtC8/

Still, a growing school of thought argues that this time could be different. As Bitcoin continues to mature and becomes more integrated into institutional portfolios, the four-year cycle may be losing relevance. In this view, price action is becoming less about the halving and more about macro trends, liquidity flows and key narratives.

Trump’s influence, for example, whether through social media posts, executive orders or pro-crypto policy shifts, has had visible effects on Bitcoin’s price. Similarly, high-profile players like Michael Saylor and Larry Fink can move markets. If BlackRock were to announce even a 1 percent allocation across its products, Bitcoin would likely reprice well before any halving-driven supply dynamics had a chance to kick in.

That’s not to say halvings no longer matter. Their impact just seems to be fading with each cycle. Bitcoin is maturing. Liquidity is deeper. And price behaviour is starting to look more like a high-beta risk asset than a niche inflation hedge. Correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continues to rise, and policy decisions from the Fed or Treasury are now setting the tone for short-term price direction.

Even with these changes, this current cycle still looks and feels a lot like the previous ones. The timing, structure and sentiment all point toward a market nearing its peak. Some are already calling a top, while others believe we could still see a final blow-off phase that exceeds expectations. That view depends heavily on sustained risk appetite and continued institutional inflows.

Bitcoin’s history has shown that cycles, sentiment shifts and major market events tend to repeat in familiar ways. The details may evolve, but the patterns often stay the same. Whether this marks the end of the bull run or just the beginning of its final leg, one truth remains: short-term volatility does not change the long-term case for Bitcoin.

August Volatility, September’s Seasonal Struggles

If you had told someone a month ago that Bitcoin would hit new all-time highs and then, just days later, people would be calling for a bear market, they would have thought you were mad. But that is exactly how August played out.

Bitcoin climbed to a new peak, ending the month nearly 7% higher at one point. But things turned fast. As sentiment flipped, the month closed red, down just under 7% from its high. It was a sharp reversal that caught many off guard.

Now we head into September, a month that has rarely been kind to Bitcoin. Historically, it is the worst-performing month on average for the asset, with a typical loss of 5.58% and nine of the last fourteen Septembers closing in the red. The trend is clear, and it is not just limited to crypto. September also has a poor track record for equities. Since 1926, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of minus 0.8% in September, and four of the last five years have followed that same negative pattern.

The current structure does not look great for Bitcoin, with August seeing both momentum and short-term control swing back to the bears. Entering what is statistically the most bearish month of the year only adds to the uncertainty. That said, the picture is not all bad. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin is now approaching a strong zone of technical support between $104K and $107K, with a deeper support band below that in the $102K to $103K region. If price continues lower and September plays out as history suggests, these levels should provide meaningful demand and could very well mark a short-term bottom.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/4k2HJmJP/

These zones also align with what we would expect if Bitcoin were to post a typical September pullback of around 5%, which suggests any downside from here could be limited. From a structural perspective, this makes the coming weeks critical. If the support holds, the stage would be set for a potential rebound in October, which has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months.

Breakout targets remain intact, with the shallow $130K region still acting as the key upside magnet. A move of nearly 20% would be required to reach those levels, but a steady September would set the scene for a strong fourth quarter, continuing the pattern of bullish momentum through October and beyond.

Macro could be the deciding factor. All eyes are on the 17 September interest rate decision, where markets are currently pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 bps cut. Powell’s dovish tone in August already boosted risk sentiment, and if a cut is confirmed, it could be the catalyst Bitcoin needs. One more inflation print is due before the meeting, and that could either confirm expectations or throw more confusion into the mix. If the Fed surprises with a hold, risk assets could face another leg lower.

Geopolitics also remains a wildcard. The potential meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin, expected in early September, could influence markets significantly. A move towards resolution in the Ukraine conflict would likely be seen as a major positive for risk assets.

So while history may not be on Bitcoin’s side heading into September, macro and technical support both offer reasons for cautious optimism. Bitcoin is vulnerable in the short term, but structurally it remains in the range of strong demand. The path forward depends on whether buyers step in here or wait for further confirmation. Either way, what happens in September could shape the rest of the cycle.

In the News:

XRP Co-founder faces scrutiny for selling his tokens:

Controversy has been building around XRP co-founder Chris Larsen, as his wallet was recently linked to the sale or movement of 50 million XRP tokens, worth roughly $175 million around XRP's all-time high in July at $3.65. Around $140 million of that total ended up on exchanges, with the rest transferred to new wallets. The move has weighed heavily on XRP’s price action and added further pressure to an already bearish market backdrop. It has also reignited criticism around the project’s centralisation, with many investors frustrated by the perception that insiders are selling into retail demand. Any hopes of a bullish breakout have been temporarily halted.

Executive Order Opens Retirement Crypto Access in America:

In his push to position America as the global home of crypto, Trump signed another series of pro-crypto executive orders last month. The most impactful of these now allows Americans to purchase Bitcoin and other crypto assets within their 401(k) retirement plans, the US equivalent of Superannuation. This policy unlocks a major gateway, potentially giving over 90 million Americans direct exposure to the crypto market. It is a significant milestone for mainstream adoption and another tailwind for long-term demand.

Chainlink Partners with the US Department of Commerce:

Sticking with the broader theme of US-led crypto advancement, Chainlink has announced a partnership with the US Department of Commerce. The collaboration will bring key economic indicators, including real GDP and the PCE Price Index, on-chain to make the data immutable and publicly verifiable. This is a major step forward, not just for Chainlink but for the crypto space at large. By putting real-world economic data on the blockchain, the initiative signals growing institutional confidence in the technology and further legitimises the use case for decentralised data infrastructure beyond just Bitcoin.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in August 2025:

Bitcoin dropped 6.43% in August
Ethereum gained 18.7%, continuing its strong run and setting a new all-time high
Solana kept pace with ETH, finishing the month up 16.7%
Chainlink led the majors, up 37.3% and climbing to the 13th largest crypto by market cap
Total crypto market cap fell slightly by 0.56%

Video of the month:

Balaji Srinivasan: What Happens When Bitcoin Wins | Bitcoin Asia 2025

Education: Is There a Problem with Bitcoin Treasury Companies?

In the last cycle, we saw the collapse of hedge funds, trading firms and exchanges that were once considered too big to fail, until they were not. The unraveling of 3 Arrows Capital, Alameda Research and ultimately FTX dealt brutal blows to the market during the bear phase, sending Bitcoin and the broader crypto space even lower. A common thread ran through all of them: they were overleveraged and, in many cases, trading with borrowed or misused funds. As the bear market deepened and drawdowns accelerated, they fell like dominoes.

This cycle, the spotlight has shifted. Some critics now argue that Bitcoin treasury companies, which are firms holding large amounts of Bitcoin on their balance sheets, could become the FTX or 3AC of this era. The concern is that they are similarly vulnerable to collapse and could amplify downside pressure on Bitcoin’s price during periods of stress.

The Bitcoin treasury model has been led by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) CEO Michael Saylor. Under his leadership, the company has accumulated one of the largest corporate Bitcoin reserves by purchasing BTC directly and raising additional capital through convertible notes and equity offerings to buy more. In some cases, they have used debt financing, which increases the risk profile of the strategy. Other companies, such as Tesla and Block, have taken a different approach by using internal funds, but none have matched Strategy’s scale or aggressiveness. Recently, a handful of other Bitcoin-focused businesses have signalled similar intentions, taking inspiration from Saylor’s model.

It is not just Bitcoin seeing this trend emerge. Companies are beginning to adopt a similar strategy with other digital assets, including Ethereum and Solana. BitMine is currently the largest Ethereum treasury company, while Upexi holds the largest corporate position in Solana. As more companies join the trend and a broader range of assets become part of corporate treasuries, the risks begin to increase. With fewer safeguards, less liquidity and greater volatility across altcoins, the danger and likelihood of forced liquidations, poor risk management and eventual collapse become much higher. This raises systemic concerns not just for Bitcoin, but for the wider crypto market if this trend continues to accelerate without proper controls.

The core concern is leverage. Strategy has issued billions of dollars in debt to build its Bitcoin position. If a deep bear market drives prices sharply lower, the value of its holdings could fall to a point where the company struggles to service or refinance that debt. In a worst-case scenario, this could trigger forced Bitcoin sales, accelerating downside moves and shaking market confidence. While Strategy has already weathered one full bear cycle, the risk grows as the model is adopted by others. Critics warn it only takes one major failure to temporarily destabilise the market.

That said, even if a Bitcoin treasury company collapses and is forced to liquidate, it is crucial to remember that this risk sits with the company, not with Bitcoin itself. The network and asset remain fundamentally unchanged. Prices could fall in the short term, but Bitcoin’s core qualities such as scarcity, decentralisation and security are not affected by the actions of any single firm.

The analogy to the Global Financial Crisis is useful. In 2008, banks created risky debt instruments tied to mortgages. When the debt collapsed, markets crashed, but the houses themselves were still there. Similarly, if overleveraged crypto treasury companies fail, the Bitcoin, Ethereum or Solana they hold remains the same. The long-term value proposition does not disappear just because the wrong balance sheet strategy blew up.

Whether these companies thrive or collapse, Bitcoin remains Bitcoin. And now, so does Ethereum, Solana and any other asset chosen as a corporate store of value. For long-term investors, the noise around strategy, leverage and risk exposure should not distract from the core fundamentals. Volatility is part of the market, but the technology and value behind these assets persist regardless of how any one company chooses to manage its books.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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The Rake Review: July 2025

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 13:58:55 +1000

From Dormant Wallets to Record Highs and the Dawn of Altseason?

July was a month of contrasts for Bitcoin, with decade-old coins suddenly moving, fresh all-time highs, and the first major crypto regulations landing. The back half of the year has started stronger than expected, but can this momentum carry into a full-fledged altseason?

Blast from Bitcoin’s Past

Everyone wishes they bought Bitcoin earlier. Back in 2011, it was under $1. But even if you had bought it then, would you have held it until today? The likely answer is no. Most would have sold at $100, $1,000, or maybe $10,000.

The first challenge would have been simply buying it. Stormrake didn’t exist, so you couldn’t just call your broker for an allocation. Storing Bitcoin was also a headache. Hardware wallets like Ledger and Trezor didn’t exist, and the main exchange at the time, Mt. Gox, was hacked in 2013, with 7% of the total Bitcoin supply stolen.

Source:https://x.com/GregSchoen/status/70261648811761665

So the likelihood of you still having your Bitcoin, even if you bought it in 2011, is extremely slim. You most likely would have been like the X user above, who actually did buy Bitcoin in 2011 but sold at $0.30. For those curious, his 1,700 BTC is now worth roughly $196 million USD or $298 million AUD.

This month, several wallets from that early era suddenly came to life. Eight ‘Satoshi-Era’ wallets moved over 80,000 BTC, worth more than $8.4 billion USD at the time. Speculation immediately swirled around the crypto community. Was it Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, freed by Trump earlier this year? Early Bitcoin evangelist Roger Ver, recently released from prison? Or even Satoshi Nakamoto himself?

The initial movements triggered a brief wave of selling as investors feared a massive dump. But it turned out to be simple wallet upgrades, moving coins from old, inefficient addresses to newer ones with lower fees. The owners remain a mystery.

Then, late this month, Galaxy Digital confirmed one of the largest Bitcoin sales in history: more than 80,000 BTC sold for over $9 billion USD. It caused another quick sell-off, but demand quickly absorbed it. The market barely flinched. The only losers were the panic sellers. Everyone else, including the mystery whale who turned a $54,000 investment into $9 billion in under 15 years, won.

If it really was Ulbricht or Ver, perhaps prison was a blessing in disguise. A decade without access to their Bitcoin meant they couldn’t sell, and that enforced patience paid off. Or maybe it was simply someone with true diamond hands. Either way, the lesson is clear. Holding Bitcoin through its volatile cycles, as we tell our Stormrake clients time and time again, has historically been the ultimate reward.

The Altseason Question

Has altseason finally arrived? The bull run that many have been waiting for may now be upon us. Historically, altseasons have been extremely rewarding for holders of altcoins, but this cycle has tested patience. Over the last 12 to 18 months, we have seen several false starts. Traders tried to front-run altseason, rotated heavily into alts, and ended up holding deep drawdowns. Could this finally be the real one?

When it comes to altseason, there are a few reliable signals. This time, multiple signals are aligning more clearly than ever. Those who have been in the crypto space for several cycles will be familiar with the traditional phases of altseason:

Source:@Twitter

The path to altseason historically follows four overlapping phases. This current bull run has been dominated by Bitcoin and has effectively remained in Phase 1 for years. Bitcoin rose from $15.5K to well over $100K. While some sectors briefly outperformed—ISO tokens, real-world asset tokens—Bitcoin consistently led.

Phase 2 begins when Ethereum dominates, consistently outperforming Bitcoin and other altcoins. The key word here is consistency. Over the past few years, Ethereum occasionally outperformed Bitcoin for short bursts, but never for more than a couple of weeks. Many traders rotated too early, only to watch Bitcoin hit new all-time highs while Ethereum lagged.

The last few months have been different. Ethereum has now been consistently outperforming Bitcoin, supported by major institutional demand. Spot Ethereum ETF inflows have dwarfed Bitcoin ETF inflows on a market cap-adjusted basis. Since 2 July, Ethereum ETFs have not seen a single day of net outflows, while Bitcoin ETF flows have been mixed.

Phase 3 is when funds begin to rotate from Ethereum into the next set of large-cap altcoins: Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Sui (SUI). These coins start to lead the market and outperform both Bitcoin and Ethereum. We have already seen brief signs of this, with BNB and HYPE hitting new all-time highs while Ethereum remains below its peak. However, the outperformance must be sustained to confirm Phase 3. Until then, the market remains in Phase 2.

Price action is not the only way to identify altseason. Another key signal is Bitcoin dominance versus total altcoin market cap. Bitcoin dominance measures how much of the total crypto market cap is made up of Bitcoin. In a Bitcoin-led market, dominance rises above 60% while the altcoin market cap trends down. In contrast, during altseason, Bitcoin dominance breaks down while the total altcoin market cap rallies and breaks out. This does not necessarily mean Bitcoin falls—its price can still rise—but altcoins rise faster.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/xR8yelyJ/

The charts above show Bitcoin dominance breaking down and the total altcoin market cap breaking out. Dominance now has a confirmed bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows, while the altcoin market cap has reversed into a bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows. Together, this is the strongest confirmation of altseason we have seen in this cycle.

It finally seems like altseason is here. The signals are clear, the false starts are behind us, and institutions are now showing a preference for Ethereum over Bitcoin. But altseason does not mean you should rotate your entire position from Bitcoin into altcoins. Experienced cycle traders know that the real strategy is to let altcoins grow your Bitcoin stack. Accumulate altcoins, take profits during the outperformance, and use those gains to buy more Bitcoin.

July Delivered. What’s Next for August?

Last month, we set a July target for Bitcoin to create a new all-time high around $117K–$118K. July more than delivered, with a new all-time high at $123K, and it ultimately closed the month right at our target zone, up 8% for July. The bullish structure has been fully confirmed, setting up the back half of the year in a strong position.

Now we turn to August. Historically, August has been a bearish month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -0.23%. Nine of the last 14 Augusts have closed red, including the last three in a row. On the surface, history doesn’t favour a green month.

But this cycle is different. Bitcoin’s strength lies in its extremely bullish market structure and in a factor it has never had in past cycles: institutional demand. Institutions have been the primary driver of this bull run, alongside the rising global money supply. These factors could still override August’s historical weakness, even as the market’s confidence in a September rate cut has wavered. With over a month until the next FOMC meeting, sentiment has room to shift. Two key CPI prints and the rollout of new tariffs will land before the decision, offering clarity on the Fed’s next move. Historically, markets have been quick to front-run anticipated policy shifts, which makes a bullish August entirely plausible despite current uncertainty.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/hWcelaAb/

The current chart continues to show clear bullish momentum. Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase, moving sideways and building energy for its next leg up.

Price action is now testing the lower edge of this consolidation range, and with August being historically a bearish month, there is a chance we see a pullback towards the previous all-time high around $112K. This area aligns with the 55-day exponential moving average, which should act as a key bounce level if a sustained move lower occurs.

However, if August bucks its historical trend—as we expect it will—the breakout target from this consolidation range sits between $131.5K and $136K. These levels are supported by the 1.414 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels, as well as the central pivot range target at $132K.

In the News:

Liberation Day Tariffs Set to Resume on August 1:

A dominant theme this year has been tariffs, with the event that shocked markets occurring in April—dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump himself. A broad blanket of tariffs was placed on multiple countries, then delayed by 90 days to allow trade deal negotiations with the US. That deadline was later pushed to 1 August.

During the pause, several deals have been reached, most notably between the United States and the European Union. Countries that have not secured agreements by 1 August are expected to face the return of the Liberation Day tariffs.

Three Major Bills Passed During Crypto Week:

This month saw the inaugural Crypto Week, expected to be a milestone for crypto regulation, with three major bills targeted for passage: the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Act.

While the week started with a surprise setback as the initial vote to pass all three bills failed, a second vote days later saw all three approved. The GENIUS Act was signed into law on 18 July, marking a landmark moment for US crypto regulation and a strong step forward for the industry.

Geopolitical Escalations:

The conflict Trump claimed he could end within a day of taking office has once again moved to the forefront of investors’ minds. Frustrated by Russia’s continued refusal to engage in ceasefire or peace talks, Trump shortened his ceasefire deadline from 50 days to roughly 10.

If Russia does not comply, the US has threatened expanded sanctions and additional tariffs impacting all countries trading with Russia. This new deadline, expected in early August, is a critical factor to watch as it could influence market price action in the first weeks of the month.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in July 2025:

Bitcoin rose by 8% in July.
Ethereum dominated, rising by 49% in July.
Tron slipped to 10th, being jumped by Lido Staked Ethereum and Dogecoin.
HBAR continues to climb the ranks, up 67% and into the top 20 projects by market cap.
The total crypto market cap grew by 14.18% in July.

Video of the month:

Winning the AI Race Part 5: President Trump on the AI Action Plan and US Crypto plans for the next 5 years...

Education: What to Avoid This Altseason

If this month has taught us anything, it is that holding spot Bitcoin remains the most rewarding investment strategy. As shown in our opening section, the Satoshi-era wallets turned modest investments into generational wealth simply by holding. They didn’t trade in and out, they didn’t chase the hype, and they certainly didn’t use leverage.

Now that we’re in altseason, the allure of chasing fast gains is everywhere. Narratives will explode overnight, and social media will be flooded with people bragging about their 100x winners. The biggest challenge is sticking to your plan. For most investors, that means holding your Bitcoin, using altcoins only as a tool to accumulate more Bitcoin, and most importantly, avoiding leverage.

The path to wealth in Bitcoin is simple and has been proven cycle after cycle:

Step 1: Buy spot Bitcoin

Step 2: Do not use leverage

Step 3: Be patient and wait

It sounds almost too simple, but this is the formula that works. Most people fail to follow it because they crave action, chase short-term returns, or convince themselves that leverage is a shortcut to wealth.

Leverage offers the illusion of easy profits, but in reality it is a ticking time bomb. You pay daily fees to keep positions open, and your exposure to the market is amplified. Even the smallest fluctuation can wipe out 100% of your funds. This month was a perfect example. Bitcoin spent over two weeks consolidating between $116K and $120K, a move of less than 3%, yet billions in leveraged positions were liquidated. Traders lost everything in a market that barely moved.

History tells the same story. Every Bitcoin bear market has seen brutal drawdowns of 80% or more. These periods are designed to shake out the impatient and punish those overexposed with leverage. If the Satoshi-era whale had ever used leverage, they would never have survived the 80%+ drawdowns that defined prior bear markets. Their eventual multi-billion-dollar fortune was only possible because they did the simplest thing: held spot Bitcoin with patience.

The Rule of 90 is another grim reminder of why most traders fail. According to this rule, 90% of novice traders will lose 90% of their capital within their first 90 days. Meanwhile, 100% of Bitcoin holders who have held spot for longer than 4 years have always been in profit. The contrast between trading and simply holding could not be clearer.

Leverage is not for investors. Investors are the ones with long-term conviction who survive the cycles and never become forced sellers. Leverage amplifies mistakes, turns normal volatility into existential risk, and destroys the one thing you need most to succeed in Bitcoin: time in the market.

The lesson is simple but profound: buy spot Bitcoin, avoid leverage, and be patient. It may feel boring, but boring is what builds lasting wealth in Bitcoin. Excitement and leverage are what get traders liquidated.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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A Defining Night for US Crypto Adoption

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 14:09:33 +1000

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Overnight, we saw the first federal crypto bill officially signed into law in the United States, with Trump putting pen to paper on the GENIUS Act. It marks a major step forward for crypto regulation and a clear signal of growing adoption.

While signing the bill, Trump praised cryptocurrency, saying it "has gone up more than any stock" and is "only going further" under his administration. “You're gonna do really well.” Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who has worked closely with Trump over the past year, expects more crypto-focused legislation to follow. He called the GENIUS Act “the official start of the financial revolution in the US.”

In another sign of growing institutional adoption, asset manager Charles Schwab (who oversee over $10 trillion in assets) announced they will soon launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading services.

Former Twitter founder and long-term Bitcoin investor Jack Dorsey’s company Block (which supports peer-to-peer Bitcoin payments) is set to join the S&P 500. While not a direct blockchain or crypto-native firm, its inclusion marks another bullish step for adoption, now making its way into traditional financial powerhouses.

Yet despite all the bullishness around adoption, the price action didn’t follow through. Bitcoin is back below $118K after failing to sustain a move above $120K and retest the all-time high. XRP, which had rallied nearly 15% the previous day, gave back some gains and closed down 2%. Still, Ethereum shrugged off the pressure and ended the session 2% in the green — showing some resilience amid mixed sentiment across majors.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($46.39)

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/N1yh6cb9/

The bears made a move, pushing HYPE over 5% lower intraday, but price action quickly recovered with HYPE bouncing back to reclaim the $46 support. Still a red day while the rest of the market is green, but this looks more like a breather before the next leg up rather than cause for concern.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/lfdaxWXU/

Bitcoin has reclaimed the psychological $120K level and is inching closer to its all-time high. With the bullish momentum off the back of the regulatory developments, we could see a retest of the ATH in the coming days.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 17 Jul: $ + 5.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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How Does This Bitcoin Breakout Stack Up to November’s?

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 14:11:24 +1000

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Bitcoin has bounced back over the last 24 hours and is now retesting $120K, but it's Ethereum that continues to dominate and steal the show. Bitcoin’s lack of price movement since setting its all-time high could be a result of investors rotating into Ethereum and other altcoins.

The last time we saw a similar breakout in Bitcoin was back in November, following Trump’s election victory. At the time, Bitcoin was hovering just below its all-time high and struggling to break above $74K — until post-election momentum kicked off a major rally, pushing the price nearly 50% higher over the following weeks. We’re now seeing a similar setup. While this move isn’t quite as large, Bitcoin had again been consolidating beneath its all-time high before finally breaking out and continuing higher.

Bitcoin did pull back slightly, dropping almost 5% from its all-time high on Monday. But we saw something similar in November too. After six consecutive bullish days, Bitcoin retraced around 5% from its then all-time high at $89.6K back to $85K before rallying further over the next week and a half. The current structure is tracking closely — Bitcoin dipped from $123K to $115.7K, offering an opportunity for active traders to accumulate during the pullback. If this rally continues to follow November’s pattern, albeit on a smaller scale, we could see Bitcoin pushing toward $130K in the coming weeks.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/fzXvzVNe/

But the real difference in this rally isn’t Bitcoin — it’s Ethereum.

Back in November, Bitcoin led the charge. Ethereum had a few brief moments of outperformance, but nothing sustainable. Over the following six months, Ethereum severely underperformed. This time, however, Ethereum has flipped the script. Since May, it's been consistently outperforming Bitcoin, leading the market in a sustained fashion. It seems like this is the start of something that rhymes with malt season...

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($47.42)

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/FCVNhwp8/

HYPE remains in consolidation above a key support level — exactly what you’d expect after the sharp rally it's experienced. This period of sideways action may be the calm before the next leg higher and could present an accumulation window for those looking to enter the market.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/HmvGk8n5/

Bitcoin bounced cleanly from yesterday’s support level, and bulls have now regained control. The next likely move is a retest of the all-time high at $123.2K in the coming days.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 16 Jul: $ + 5.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Crypto Week Stumbles as Key Bills Fail to Pass

Wed, 16 Jul 2025 14:16:59 +1000

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The much-anticipated Crypto Week is already failing to deliver on what many expected. We were meant to see three bills aimed at crypto legislation pass and provide much-needed clarity within the space: the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act and the Anti-CBDC Act.

Overnight we saw the first vote occur, but the US House failed to advance all three bills with a vote of 196-223. Most Republicans voted in favour, but the no votes came predominantly from Democrats, with even some Republicans dissenting. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of the Republicans who voted no, argued that the legislation didn’t go far enough to prevent the creation of a US CBDC. Greene posted on X following the vote:

“I just voted NO on the Rule for the GENIUS Act because it does not include a ban on Central Bank Digital Currency and because Speaker Johnson did not allow us to submit amendments to the GENIUS Act. Americans do not want a government-controlled Central Bank Digital Currency. Republicans have a duty to ban CBDC.”

There is still a push from Trump to get the GENIUS Act through and on his desk for signing this week. This means that instead of passing all three bills at once, they may now go through individually, providing a better chance of success.

Bitcoin has pulled back as a result, yet the move wasn’t felt evenly across the market. Bitcoin is down nearly 5% from its high on Monday, while Ethereum has pushed to new highs, up over 2% with Bitcoin down nearly 2% over the last 24 hours. Sui also continues to show strength, up nearly 5% over the same period. It’s a mixed bag considering Bitcoin’s price action, but this pullback is nothing to worry about — it should be seen as an opportunity for those looking to accumulate during a bull market dip. It also highlights the resilience within the altcoin market at the moment.

In other news, inflation data was released overnight. Core CPI month-on-month fell by 0.1%, headline CPI month-on-month came in as expected, and headline CPI year-on-year rose by 0.1%. With an interest rate decision due in two weeks, the probability of no cut now sits at 97.4%.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($47.46)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/TRCXSArV/

HYPE looks set to close red and follow Bitcoin’s bearishness over the last 24 hours but has still outperformed, down just 0.55% on the day. HYPE remains extremely bullish and is holding well above the current support at $46-$47.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/pz82DZbL/

Bitcoin has retraced back to the key level of $116.8k after creating its all-time high on Monday morning. In doing so, it has flipped short-term momentum back to the bears with a bearish cross of the 21 and 55 EMAs. BTC is now battling to stay above this key level while facing resistance from the CPR and the two moving averages it just closed below. This is just the short-term picture though — the broader outlook remains bullish.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 15 Jul: $ - 22.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.