Stormrake - Insights #cryptocurrency

Q2 2026 Outlook Breakdown - Part 1: The Great Liquidity Pivot

Fri, 08 May 2026 13:25:27 +1000

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Today marks the beginning of our Quarter 2 Outlook breakdown series. Throughout this series, we will be diving into specific sections of our comprehensive Q2 report to examine the key macroeconomic, geopolitical, and technical forces shaping the digital asset market. We begin by addressing the foundation of every market cycle: global liquidity.

Global liquidity remains the single most important driver of digital asset market cycles . While financial conditions have felt restrictive following the post-pandemic tightening cycle, the structural landscape has shifted in a way that suggests the worst of the liquidity withdrawal is officially behind us.

The M2 money supply, which reflects the total liquid capital within the financial system, has historically functioned as the primary catalyst for risk appetite. After a period of aggressive contraction, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening programme concluded in December, removing a major source of liquidity withdrawal from global markets. Furthermore, the decline of the reverse repo facility is effectively releasing liquidity back into the system. As M2 returns to its historical trend of expansion, it creates a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin, which has historically shown a high sensitivity to these broader monetary shifts.

Why this matters for Bitcoin:

Forward Looking Pricing: Bitcoin appears to be responding more to expected future liquidity than current conditions.
Systemic Pressure: Rising sovereign debt and interest costs are placing pressure on the financial system, conditions that have historically led to policy intervention.
The Opportunity: While conditions remain tight in the near term, the probability of future liquidity expansion is increasing as systemic pressure builds.

Bitcoin appears to be positioning within the latter phase of a bear market, where the risk-reward dynamics begin to favour long-term accumulation. As M2 money supply stabilises and capital begins to flow back into the ecosystem, we are watching for a transition from consolidation toward the next expansion phase.

For the full breakdown of how macro forces are shaping the next cycle, read our complete Quarter 2 Outlook 2026 report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,681)

PAXG is red on the day after being up nearly 1.5% intraday. As expected, the bears halted the push higher above the 55 exponential moving average resistance, a level they have defended aggressively for the last two months.

PAXG is rapidly approaching a decision point within a narrowing range; with resistance closing in on support, only one side can prevail. We will likely see a decisive breakout in the next couple of weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is down 2% on the day and has fallen back below $80,000, allowing the bears to regain short term momentum. However, the underlying market structure still favours the bulls.

This move is likely the necessary pullback before the next leg higher.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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Bitcoin Rallies on Bad News: A Signal of Cycle Change

Thu, 07 May 2026 13:45:21 +1000

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One of the most telling indicators of a market’s true health is not just how it reacts to positive catalysts but how it absorbs negative ones. In a textbook bear market, Bitcoin typically requires very little provocation to dump and is habitually slammed on any semblance of bad news. We saw this play out during previous cycles where macro deterioration led to a relentless distribution phase.

However, the script has flipped. Despite a continuous stream of geopolitical friction including fresh military strikes, the ongoing Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the collapse of weekend peace talks, Bitcoin has continued to climb throughout this war. This ability to rally on both bad and good news is a classic signal that the extreme bearishness has passed.

It is important to clarify that this does not definitively mean the bear market is over or that a new bull market has officially begun. While resilience in the face of conflict is a significant indicator, it is just one sign among many. There are still other complex factors that must be taken into consideration before calling the end of the bear market. We discuss these variables in depth within our full Q2 outlook to help you gauge exactly where we are in the current market cycle.

What is particularly notable in the current environment is Bitcoin’s independent strength. While oil prices surge and traditional risk assets push into record territory, Bitcoin is no longer just following the equity lead. Instead of breaking down under the stress of energy shocks or geopolitical uncertainty, it is holding structure and trending higher. This suggests that supply is being aggressively absorbed by strategic capital rather than forced out by fear.

Stormrake’s Quarter 2 Outlook:

To get a definitive gauge of where we currently sit in this market cycle, we encourage readers to check out our full Q2 outlook. We will begin breaking down the core themes of this report as the next Morning Note series. Stay tuned.

Full analysis: https://www.stormrake.com/insights/reports/2026-q2-outlook

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,685)

PAXG has bounced and exited the demand zone, up over 2.2%, but it now faces the resistance that has kept the bulls in check and suppressed every attempted breakout. $4,700 is a decisive price for PAXG. A sustained breakout should see the bulls regain momentum for the first time in months.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has continued to move higher as it was just shy of $83k overnight. It has since retraced to the moving averages which should likely provide some support, but even if they do not find a bounce here, the key support level sits at $80k. The bulls are in a very good spot.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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From Bubbles to Bitcoin: The Search for Undervalued Assets

Wed, 06 May 2026 10:27:44 +1000

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Nothing goes up in a straight line forever. Those who have been in markets for some time have most likely lived through some bubbles and major crashes. These events often occur when markets become too overheated and overvalued.

We have seen major bubbles and crashes since the turn of the century, notably the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008. Even those who were not invested during those periods have heard stories about the extreme overvaluation that caused those bubbles to pop.

One of the best ways to gauge this is through the Buffett Indicator, which measures the total value of all publicly traded stocks against GDP. Currently, this ratio sits above 200% for the first time in history, which is significantly higher than levels seen before the major crashes in 2000 and 2008. While retail interest has returned to equities as they hit all-time highs, many experts are warning that the AI-driven rally has made the index extremely overvalued.

However, smart money is not looking at overvalued investments.

Instead, they are looking at an asset that is up approximately 35% since February but still close to 40% down from its all-time high of $126k. Bitcoin is that undervalued asset. It remains in a drawdown yet has performed resiliently since the start of the Middle East conflict.

While stock markets are being inflated by AI and tech narratives, Bitcoin has begun to climb for a different reason. It is no longer moving purely in lockstep with risk-on markets. Instead, we are seeing a larger structural shift where Bitcoin is being used as a neutral settlement currency. As governments and institutions look for alternatives to fiat systems, smart money has been entering consistently over the last few months.

Are you positioned for the shift, or are you still chasing the peak of the equity bubble?

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,584)

PAXG has bounced once again from the moving average situated in the middle of the demand zone. Up nearly 1.5% over the last session, the asset is looking to move back out of this range as bulls attempt to mount a final stand.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has successfully flipped the resistance at $80k into support, which represents a massive achievement for the bulls. This level was previously a major target, and holding above it confirms a significant shift in market structure. The bulls now have full control of both structure and momentum, and they will be looking to push deeper into the $80k region as the weeks progress.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Race to Zero: A Fiat Inevitability

Tue, 05 May 2026 11:33:36 +1000

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Some things in life are just inevitable: death, taxes, Carlton leading at half time only to lose, or Bitcoin investors seeing green if they hold long enough. In global economics, the latest inevitable shift is the slow, steady decline of fiat currency toward zero.

Today we are discussing the Iranian Rial (IRR). Fiat currencies are often put against each other when it comes to measuring value and performance. With the US dollar currently being the global currency, it is the consensus measuring stick. However, we know fiat currencies are highly manipulated. This occurs not only through central banks printing money but also via external sanctions that can effectively ostracise nations from the rest of the globe. We have seen the Yugoslavian Dinar, Iraqi Dinar, Syrian Pound, and Lebanese Pound all collapse following conflicts and US sanctions.

The Iranian Rial has been on a constant decline for decades, a trend accelerated by the current Middle East conflict. The Strait of Hormuz has essentially become a toll booth where Iran accepts alternative payments, including Bitcoin and Tether, while excluding the US dollar.

The table below highlights the staggering devaluation of the IRR against both the USD and Bitcoin:

The columns on the right tell the real story. The devaluation of both the USD and IRR has been exponential when measured against Bitcoin since its inception.

This is a story of what is happening to every currency; all are in a race to zero against one another. If you substituted the Australian Dollar for the IRR, it would tell the same story, just at a slower rate.

When you measure fiat against Bitcoin, there is only one path.

So the question I ask you as the reader, where are you going to store your wealth?

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,522)

As the week started trading again, PAXG has returned back into the demand zone after losing nearly 2% to kick off the week. The bears continue to mount pressure on the bulls’ last meaningful support before $4,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

For the first time since January, Bitcoin has touched $80,000. This is the battleground. If the bulls can sustain a break above it, then the push into the deeper $80,000 region should be on. The bulls have full control of this short term picture.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Has the Narrative Arrived?

Mon, 04 May 2026 11:34:22 +1000

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Last week we mentioned that Bitcoin looked like it was waiting for a narrative to break that $80,000 barrier. It looks like it may be on the cusp of arrival following a productive weekend of price action and peace talks.

We saw Bitcoin fall back below $75k last week as we warned retail investors of the dangers of waiting around for lower prices. Meanwhile, smart money was taking advantage of every dip and pushing prices slightly higher on each move. This has been the case since the low in early February. It is fair to say that Bitcoin price action has felt boring and has not seemed to progress much, but in fact it has made substantial progress over the last few months. Bitcoin is up over 30% thanks to smart money buying the discounted prices while retail traders are waiting for a clear narrative to arrive.

That narrative may be here, coming in the form of a potential agreement within the Middle East. Yes, we have had a lot of fakeouts over the last month or so of failed peace talks, but in reality, this will be the narrative to give Bitcoin that kick back above $80k in the short term.

The key sign of the potential agreement is the oil price. The other day we mentioned oil prices rallying hard, with WTI Crude back above $110, but it has since fallen back below $100. US stock futures have opened higher and Bitcoin is making its way up too following the announcement by Trump that the US will guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

It is important to acknowledge that this conflict is short term noise and should not detract from Bitcoin’s true value or purpose. If anything, it has added to it and strengthened the case for Bitcoin as a neutral settlement layer. All it does is increase short term volatility and provide buying opportunities for those who have conviction for the long term. We are currently hovering a fraction below $80k. Whether the bottom is in for the cycle or not, those with conviction view these prices as generational opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin at major discounts.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,608)

PAXG continues to hover above the demand zone. As it was the weekend, there was little to no price movement, but the week ahead will be big for PAXG. It is likely we either see a strong bounce and flip momentum to the bulls or break below the demand zone and head towards the low $4,000s.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin reached a high of $79.5k this morning, but a sell off in the last hour suggests the bears are continuing to defend this level as they have done successfully two previous times.

The structure has been reinforced with the successful move up from Thursday's low which created a higher low. The bulls are in control and have every chance to retest $80k.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Illusion of Independence

Sun, 03 May 2026 10:32:30 +1000

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Whilst conflicts overseas dominated headlines, some key macro data was released this week and several central banks delivered their latest interest rate decisions. The landscape is shifting rapidly, and the updates from the world’s most powerful financial institutions should serve as a wake-up call for every investor.

Inflation’s Inevitable Climb

If you recall a couple of weeks ago, we covered the projection of Australian inflation reaching 6%. This week, we saw the first major step on that journey. Australian CPI numbers, the key inflation metric, have increased from 3.7% to 4.6% year on year. We are firmly on our way to 6%, and with oil prices continuing to rally due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, inflation will likely continue to rise. Brent Crude Oil is now trading at $120 for the first time since 2022.

Central Banks and the Risk to Independence

Three major central banks, Canada, Japan, and the United States, opted to maintain interest rates this week. However, it was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments during his rate decision that raised eyebrows. Powell stated that the Federal Reserve’s independence is “at risk” and noted that Middle East developments are contributing to a “high level of uncertainty”.

When the head of the world’s largest central bank admits the system’s independence is under threat, it highlights the structural fragility of fiat currency. The US national debt now sits at $38.5 trillion, and the path is, by Powell’s own admission, unsustainable.

The Case for Bitcoin

Why would you keep your wealth in a system where the architects themselves express concern over its stability? This environment reinforces the long term appeal of Bitcoin. Unlike fiat, which is subject to political whims and debt-driven devaluation, Bitcoin remains a neutral, permissionless, and resilient alternative.

As the dollar loses purchasing power through deliberate devaluation and rising debt, Bitcoin offers a “freedom of exit”. It is not just an asset; it is a sovereign technology that allows you to move wealth out of a cracking traditional system and into a global reserve layer that cannot be frozen or manipulated.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,621)

PAXG has bounced off the 200 moving average we pointed out yesterday as it has provided the support that PAXG has needed to get back above the demand zone. It is still bearish overall and can expect the downside pressure to continue.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has bounced slightly over the last 24 hours but now comes into the moving average resistance. If BTC can break above these, then it will likely flip the momentum back to the bulls and start its next journey to retest $80,000 and solidify the bullish structure.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Cryptocurrency transaction and custody services are powered by Zero Hash LLC and Zero Hash Liquidity Services LLC. When you enable Stormrake's digital asset services, you must also agree to the Zero Hash LLC and Zero Hash Liquidity Services LLC terms and conditions and enable your Zero Hash account. Cryptocurrency assets are held and custodied by Zero Hash LLC, not Stormrake IA Pty Ltd. Services may not be available in all states. Cryptocurrency assets are not subject to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or Securities Investor Protection Corporation coverage. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

The Rake Review: April 2026

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:42:14 +1000

This Time It Is Different

April’s positive price action has brought into question where we currently are in the Bitcoin cycle, especially with prices now up approximately 30% from the February lows. The question on everyone’s lips is: Is the bottom in? While historical cycles might suggest otherwise, the underlying market structure and the shift in global adoption indicate that this time, we are witnessing a very different recovery.

Why Conviction Trumps Timing

The conflict in the Middle East continues with postponed deadlines for ceasefires and failed negotiations. Despite this, Bitcoin and other assets have shown great resilience and trended much higher throughout the month. Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed around 365 days following an all-time high, which would suggest a cycle bottom in October. However, things are different this time. The last few months have been full of bad news and events that historically would shake Bitcoin and send risk assets lower, yet the market is showing a unique strength.

Cast your mind back to 2022. Bitcoin was firmly in a bear market for six months from its all-time high. The Terra Luna collapse then sent shockwaves through the space, driving Bitcoin down 50%. Another major capitulation followed in November with the FTX collapse, sending prices down nearly 30% before finally finding a cycle low.

Compare this to the current landscape. We are six months on and roughly 40% from the all-time high. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has increased volatility, and historically, these geopolitical shocks do not bode well for risk assets. If this were 2022, Bitcoin would likely be continuing its move to the downside, selling off on every bearish announcement. Instead, while oil prices have surged, Bitcoin's reaction has shifted.

The key difference lies in the players. The 2021 and 2022 period was dominated by retail investors and traders. Today, the opposite is true. Institutions and smart money are the primary drivers while retail has remained relatively absent compared to previous cycles. Smart money understands when to take advantage of discounts, whereas retail often sits on the sidelines second-guessing entries. This accumulation during a technically bearish period is being led by institutional investors as ETF flows have turned positive and entities like Strategy continue to add to their positions.

Whether we have reached the absolute bottom or not, now is the time to accumulate. History shows that buying during periods of extreme pessimism is consistently rewarded. Consider those who bought in 2022; even when prices fell from $25,000 to $15,000, those investors are now up significantly. They accepted the possibility of further downside to capture generational upside.

Accumulating within 30% of a potential bottom is extremely rewarding for those with long-term conviction. We are far closer to the end of this bear market than the start. Do not wait for lower prices that may never arrive. Even if further downside occurs, you are currently positioning yourself at generational lows. So the real question shouldn’t be ‘is the bottom in?’ but more so, ‘how strong is your conviction?’. Your answer to this question will help you realise that the answer to the first question is irrelevant.

Check out our Quarter 2 Outlook for a detailed breakdown of where we are in the market and what the next couple of months may look like.

April has presented an opportunity; May you take advantage?

For the first time in nearly a year, Bitcoin has increased by over 10% in a single month. It has been an incredibly resilient month for Bitcoin and the crypto space, pushing higher despite the noise and headwinds fuelled by the uncertainty of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Bitcoin has not only increased by 11% in April but has seen its first bullish momentum cross since April last year. Let’s delve deeper into the price action. As aforementioned, Bitcoin is up nearly 30% from February , and in doing so, it has created a sustained bullish crossover which is incredibly constructive for the bulls.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GiB2bdjt/

May has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, delivering an average return of 19.4% over the last 15 years, with nine of those being positive months. Despite the bulls regaining momentum and having history on their side for May, the bears still control the overall structure with a series of lower lows. The bears are looking to create another lower high, which would remain the case unless Bitcoin breaks above $98,000. We are not looking to create a higher high in May; instead, we want to see a continuous climb in price action similar to what we have witnessed over the last two months.

Just as crucially, it is important to note the current bear flag that Bitcoin has been in since the beginning of February. The bulls are attempting to break out of this and nullify the pattern, but the bears are currently aided by key resistance at $80,000.

This will be the level to watch for May. If we see a sustained breakout above $80,000, we can look to potentially fulfil May’s historical average return and be very close to calling the cycle bottom. Whilst price remains under $80,000 and within the bear flag, the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at major discounts alongside smart money remains open. However, this window will not be open forever. Ensure you act on your conviction; your future self will thank you.

In the News

Stormrake Take America:

One of the biggest milestones in Stormrake history has just been hit, with Stormrake officially launching in the United States via a Zero Hash partnership. Officially announced at Bitcoin 2026 Las Vegas, the presence and the on-stage discussion by Stormrake CEO Michael Milmeister and COO Bisher Khudeira mark just the beginning of this journey.

Protecting Your Assets: The Risks of Rehypothecation

A concerning trend has resurfaced in the market that serves as a vital reminder for all investors: always check the terms and conditions of your service provider. Specifically, you must look out for the practice of rehypothecation. While some platforms may use this to boost their own bottom line, the practice is extremely dangerous and adds a significant layer of risk to your holdings.

Rehypothecation is when a provider uses your assets to earn themselves a yield. Much like a traditional bank, they take your capital and lend it out to third parties to earn interest. In this scenario, your assets are working, but they are not working for you. Even more concerning is that many of these agreements allow the provider to pass any losses incurred from these activities directly onto the client.

We have seen this practice fail spectacularly in the past, most famously with Alameda Research using the funds of its sister exchange FTX to invest and attempt to generate returns. The result was a total collapse that left clients waiting years to recoup even a fraction of their holdings. When choosing where to custody your digital wealth, ensure they are holding your assets 1:1.

At Stormrake, we do not rehypothecate your funds. Your assets are kept in an institutional-grade custody solution where they sit securely until you choose to move them.

Hormuz Toll Booth:

As we have been covering in recent Stormrake Morning Notes, the conflict in the Middle East has seen Iran virtually shut the Strait of Hormuz. The only way for tankers to gain safe passage is to pay a toll, with reported figures reaching approximately $2 million per vessel.

Due to sanctions and the restrictive nature of fiat currency, Iran has moved away from the US dollar and is reportedly demanding Bitcoin as the chosen settlement method. This development highlights the growing adoption of Bitcoin, not just as an investment or store of wealth, but as the global neutral settlement layer it was designed to be.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in April 2026:

Bitcoin increased by 11% in April.
Ethereum rose by 7.30% during the month.
Hyperliquid is up nearly 10% and is currently knocking on the door of the top 10.
PAXG declined by 2.74% for the month.
The total crypto market capitalisation grew by 8% in April.

Video of the month

Bitcoin Wins No Matter Who Wins the War - Here's Why

Mark Di Paola and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Bitcoin as the Global Neutral Settlement Layer

While headlines often focus on Bitcoin’s price as a speculative asset, April 2026 has provided a definitive real-world case study of its true evolution: its emergence as a global neutral settlement layer.

The End of the "Information Only" Era

To understand why this shift matters, we must look at the traditional financial rails that have governed global trade for decades. Traditional systems like SWIFT often act as messaging services where actual settlement takes days, involves high fees, and is subject to the operating hours of multiple jurisdictions.

Bitcoin represents a paradigm shift because it unifies the flow of information and the flow of funds. When a Bitcoin transaction is sent, the ownership of the asset is transferred and settled on-chain simultaneously. This enables settlement within minutes rather than days.

Why Neutrality is the New Gold Standard

In 2026, the concept of "neutral money" has moved from academic theory to geopolitical necessity. As we have seen with the Hormuz toll booth scenario, traditional fiat currencies can be restricted or frozen by issuing governments to enforce sanctions.

For global trade participants, Bitcoin solves this through three core pillars:

Permissionless: No central authority can block a valid transaction or unplug a nation from the network.
24/7/365 Operation: Unlike traditional markets that close over weekends, Bitcoin’s settlement layer never sleeps.
Sovereign Revenue: For the first time, states are using decentralised infrastructure as a sovereign revenue mechanism at major maritime chokepoints.

The Mathematical Imbalance

The functional use of Bitcoin in global trade also creates a structural impact on price. As reported in April, the Iranian toll system alone requires a significant portion of the daily issued Bitcoin supply to facilitate passage through the Strait of Hormuz. When a single real-world use case begins absorbing a large percentage of new issuance, it creates a supply and demand imbalance that exerts consistent upward pressure on the asset's value.

Bitcoin is no longer just digital gold for saving; it is becoming the digital rail for global commerce. Understanding this transition is the difference between viewing Bitcoin as a volatile trade and recognising it as the emerging architecture of 2026 wealth.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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A New Era for Stormrake: Our US Journey Begins

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 11:52:49 +1000

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As April draws to a close, a new journey is about to begin. Not only does Bitcoin have the opportunity to solidify its bullish momentum, but Stormrake is officially launching in the US via our zerohash partnership.

What started as an arbitrage desk in 2017 evolved into a high touch brokerage service in 2019, born from years spent navigating a tumultuous space filled with inefficiencies. Back then, a lack of security, poor research, faceless exchanges, and negative sentiment dominated the industry. There was no human connection, and that is exactly why we built the brokerage you know today.

Fast forward to 2026, and we are now servicing over 10,000 clients. Bringing that same quality of service to the US, where over 70 million people hold digital assets, is the next logical step in our mission to deliver premium brokerage support.

Bitcoin’s Opportunity: Fear is Creeping Back In

Bitcoin is looking to achieve something it hasn’t done in nearly a year: closing a month up more than 10%. We saw price fail to push toward $80,000 over the weekend, and it has since retraced to key levels. May is historically a bullish month, and it may provide the narrative needed to finally clear the $80,000 mark.

As we mentioned recently, you do not want to be caught waiting for the narrative to hit; you want to be positioned beforehand. This recent pullback has caused fear to creep back into the market. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index was in neutral territory at 47 just a few days ago, but it has now dropped to 26, a fearful reading.

This is telling. A small pullback has many investors hesitant, but those with conviction are taking advantage of the pessimism. They are “cutting the line,” securing discounted Bitcoin before the hesitant participants are forced to buy back in at higher prices later.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,546)

PAXG is continuing to push deeper into the demand zone, losing nearly 1% over the last 24 hours. The 200 exponential moving average is currently providing support at $4,527, but it is unlikely this will hold given the current strength of the bears.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

The bears are taking full advantage of their momentum, sending Bitcoin lower. Price is now below $76,000 and is approaching a level of concern for the bulls. The highlighted zone sits just below $75,000. If Bitcoin enters this area and falls below it, the bears will have regained control of the short term market structure.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Natural Flow: Why Retail is Missing the Bitcoin Discount

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 13:54:43 +1000

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Retail interest is beginning to creep back into the market, though it hasn’t quite reached Bitcoin just yet. Bitcoin currently sits roughly 5% below its recent local peak, yet it remains up 27% from the lows set in mid-March. This recovery has been largely driven by smart money accumulation during periods of extreme fear.

While traditional markets seem to be rallying to new highs daily, Bitcoin can appear forgotten. To put things into perspective, during the height of the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin was down over 50% from its all-time high, whereas the S&P 500 dropped less than 10%.

The current strength in the S&P 500 is fueled by the AI narrative, which has sparked extreme bullishness among retail investors. Data from The Kobeissi Letter highlights this shift:

Record Options Trading: Daily net call option purchases by retail investors have hit ~9 million contracts, the highest level since November 2025.
Aggressive Betting: This represents a 350% increase in retail “calls” (bets on higher prices) since the late-March low.
Historic Surge: This is the largest monthly increase in retail option buying seen in at least two years.
Euphoria: Retail sentiment is currently 33% higher than the average levels seen throughout 2024 and 2025.

The current dynamic is clear: smart money is focused on Bitcoin at discounted levels, while retail is flocking to traditional stocks that are already at or near all-time highs. This is the natural flow of markets. Smart money positions itself before the narrative goes mainstream.

Don’t wait for the Bitcoin narrative to arrive. By the time it does, price will likely be well above the key $80,000 level. Remember smart money isn’t defined by the amount of dollars in your bank account or assets you hold, it is a mindset. Ensure you adopt this mindset, your future self will thank you.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,585)

As expected, PAXG has fallen back to the demand zone after losing 2% over the last 24 hours. The bulls must step in here; if this zone fails to hold, we could see PAXG trade sub $4,000 over the coming weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is down over 1.3% over the last 24 hours as it has fallen below all moving averages, giving the bears further control of momentum. Despite this, there is no immediate concern for the overarching bullish structure as long as BTC remains above $75,000.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Leaving the Casino: Why Bitcoin and Vegas Don't Mix

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 13:24:45 +1000

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What comes to mind when you read ‘Las Vegas’? Casinos? Gambling? Partying? Famous concerts? Entertainment? All would be correct. It is a destination where people seek a thrill and short term entertainment and fun with the likelihood of losing money being high.

What would Vegas have in relation to Bitcoin or the crypto space? Well, maybe the only thing for Bitcoin is that Las Vegas hosts the biggest Bitcoin conference in the world. Stormrake is not only attending but has a booth there to announce the launch of Stormrake in the US. If you happen to be in the area and need a break from the tables, head on down.

While Las Vegas shares many similarities with some of the other parts of the crypto space, many participants that are new to the space often shy away from Bitcoin and attempt to outperform and make a quick buck by ‘investing’ into an altcoin, or even memecoins. This is a very similar mindset to those who attend Vegas. Those who have been in the space for a while will recall the Solana Memecoin Casino which saw the arrival and quicker departure of many first time participants chasing the elusive task of turning $100 into $100k.

While Vegas may be fun and share some similarities to the crypto space, there is a reason people say to only do short trips to Vegas, or even to just do it once. The same should be said with altcoins; the lucky ones will only need to do it once to learn not to do it again and stick with Bitcoin.

Aside from the aforementioned Bitcoin conference, there are no real similarities with Vegas and Bitcoin. Bitcoin requires patience, discipline, and conviction. Most will find it boring waiting for the long term investment to pan out, all of which are traits not found in Vegas.

Whether you are navigating the noise of the “altcoin casino” or building a long term position in Bitcoin, having a clear strategy is essential. If you are ready to move beyond the gamble and secure your financial future, reach out to the Stormrake team today.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,679)

A nothing day for PAXG, moving just 0.14% from the daily open. The bears still have full control of PAXG as they look to push price back to the demand zone below.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin reached a high at $79.5k yesterday but has since fallen 3% since that high and now fallen below the moving averages. The bears have reclaimed short term momentum, but the bulls are in control of the structure and higher term momentum. This should be viewed as a pullback to accumulate before the likely next leg higher.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.