Stormrake - Insights #Dump

Bitcoin Hit by Fresh Trade War Uncertainty

Mon, 10 Feb 2025 12:35:41 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Now, this is exactly what I meant when I said the political landscape is so uncertain. Just two days ago, I wrote that the crypto market would be able to trade freely, with no major catalysts set to affect it until later next week. Yet here we are—Donald Trump has announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs, starting with multiple countries next week. This comes less than a week after trade tensions between the US and Canada and Mexico were put on pause. The timing has caught most by surprise, including the markets.

Bitcoin briefly traded back above $100K, but as soon as the announcement came out, BTC lost almost 3% within the first 30 minutes. Now, just seven hours later, it’s down 4.5% from the overnight high. As expected, altcoins have continued to struggle, extending the trend we’ve seen over the last few months. Bitcoin dominance is back above 62%, highlighting its strength within the market and reaffirming its status as the ‘safe haven’ of the industry.

We’re in a period of great uncertainty in both political and economic landscapes, meaning unexpected events will continue to shake up the crypto markets—both positively and negatively. During times like these, the main focus should be accumulating Bitcoin. Think back to last year: we spent six months consolidating between $50K–$75K before Trump’s election victory acted as a catalyst to break out. Could we be in for a similar consolidation now? Bitcoin has already established a range between $90K–$110K… Only time will tell. In the meantime, the priority should be buying Bitcoin.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($2,575)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ilCowaf8/

Ethereum remains undervalued within the crypto space, but the uncertainty and lack of confidence in altcoins continue to hold it back. Until this broader sentiment shifts, ETH is likely to remain under pressure. The next key support level is $2,484 (CPR level)…

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/NOHpHykW/

Bitcoin was flat-out rejected at the critical $100K level overnight and has since fallen through all major moving averages, now sitting on key support at $95.7K. Momentum and structure remain in favour of the bears—if this level fails, BTC is likely to drop further to $92.5K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 7 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/VFtWYMGv/

Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s price action, currently trading at a key support level. Momentum and structure remain in control of the bears, and we can expect the red CPR level at $2,484 to act as additional support.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 7 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

Why Bitcoin Remains the Ultimate Investment Choice

Fri, 07 Feb 2025 12:50:28 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

This bull cycle has been markedly different from previous ones. Historically, altcoins have tended to follow Bitcoin’s lead, rallying alongside it. However, this time around, Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from the rest of the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin has set multiple all-time highs (ATHs) during this run, yet the majority of altcoins remain significantly behind—many still 70% below their ATHs from the 2021 bull market.

The image below highlights the ongoing struggle of altcoins across major sectors within the cryptocurrency space (data as of February 5, sourced from @MilesDeutscheron X).

Source:https://x.com/milesdeutscher/status/1887086277872521660

Notably, only two coins on this list—Mantra (OM) and, of course, Bitcoin—are within 10% of their ATHs. Our primary focus remains on Bitcoin. We have consistently advocated for holding Bitcoin as the majority allocation in a portfolio, and for good reason.

While altcoins can and do outperform Bitcoin at times, these periods of outperformance tend to be short-lived. Over the past three months, we’ve seen memecoins dominate, with BONK, PEPE, MOG, PENGU, SPX6900, and several others hitting new ATHs. However, many of them have since dropped over 80% from those highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—despite experiencing multiple ATHs in the same period—has only retraced by around 10%.

Major Altcoin Struggles

Let’s examine two of the biggest altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), ranked second and fifth by market cap, respectively.

Solana set several new ATHs this cycle but has already retraced over 30% from its peak, which was reached less than three weeks ago. Ethereum, on the other hand, has struggled even more—not only lagging behind Bitcoin, but also failing to keep pace with Solana and Ripple. ETH remains 44% below its 2021 ATH of $4.9k.

A 30–40% drawdown might not seem catastrophic at first glance, but let’s consider the data in the table below:

This table illustrates the percentage gain required to recover from a given drawdown. For example, Solana now requires a 43% increase just to return to its ATH, while Ethereum needs 67%. As the drawdown deepens, the recovery percentage required grows exponentially.

Why Does This Matter?

Bitcoin is the only consistent long-term performer. Unlike altcoins, which experience short-lived pumps and deep drawdowns, Bitcoin has repeatedly proven itself as a resilient and appreciating asset over time.
Institutional adoption is reshaping the market. With ETFs and major financial institutions allocating capital, Bitcoin is attracting unprecedented inflows—while altcoins remain largely speculative and underfunded in comparison.
Deep drawdowns require exponential recoveries. The lower an asset falls, the harder it is to reclaim previous highs. A 70% drop means a required 233% gain, while a 90% crash demands a near 900% rally—an unlikely feat for most projects.
Bitcoin should be the foundation of any serious portfolio. While altcoins can offer short-term trading opportunities—where profits are best rotated into Bitcoin—BTC remains the most reliable asset for long-term wealth preservation and growth.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($2,688)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/T7og6B7A/

Ethereum is currently trading around the key support level. If ETH can establish a base here—where major players appear to be accumulating—it could help restore confidence among retail investors.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/o7SijMlX/

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin attempted to break above its range, reaching a high of $99k, but was rejected at a critical CPR pivot level. This led to a pullback, with BTC retesting the lower range at $95.7k before bouncing. Should this level fail to hold, a further decline toward $92.5k is possible.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 6 Feb: $ - 37.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/430xN5vN/

Ethereum recently retested the key level of $2,865 but failed to break above it for the second time in recent days. Since then, ETH has dropped below both the 21 EMA and 55 EMA, flipping momentum in favour of the bears. If bearish pressure continues, we could see ETH test the next major support at $2,556.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 6 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Ethereum Is Falling Behind—But Smart Money Keeps Accumulating

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 13:01:39 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Bitcoin has endured another bearish 24 hours, continuing its downward trend. With no major macroeconomic catalysts expected until the release of US CPI data on the 13th, the coming week should allow the crypto market to trade freely without external economic influences. Of course, a week is a long time in markets—especially in crypto—and with the current political landscape, one can never get too comfortable.

Ethereum’s Underperformance: A Cycle of Disappointment

This has been a cycle of underperformance for Ethereum. While its main competitor, Solana, has posted multiple all-time highs, Ethereum has failed to break new ground. In fact, since Bitcoin first hit $100K in December, Ethereum has only moved backwards. At the time, ETH was trading at $4K—I’ll let the following image tell the rest of the story:

Source:https://x.com/uputkucrypto/status/1886676383880958182

Ethereum’s underperformance has come as a shock to many. Back in 2021, when market euphoria was rampant and Bitcoin was predicted to hit $100K, many expected Ethereum to reach $10K. Four years later, Bitcoin has surpassed $100K multiple times, yet Ethereum has failed to impress. This cycle’s high of $4.1K is still 15% below its 2021 all-time high of $4.9K. Currently, ETH sits 43% lower than its peak—hardly the performance many had anticipated.

Institutions Accumulate Ethereum at Low Prices

Despite retail investor disappointment and negative sentiment, major institutions have been aggressively accumulating Ethereum at these lower prices. We’ve previously covered the mass buying by World Liberty Financial (the crypto project directly linked to Donald Trump). Additionally, Fidelity purchased another $50 million worth of Ethereum two days ago, and BlackRock—arguably the most influential player in the space—bought 100,535 ETH worth $284.92 million, as reported by @WhaleInsider on X yesterday.

When institutions accumulate at key levels, it makes sense to take notice. Following the smart money rarely ends poorly.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($2,766)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/SQcrdUMY/

Ethereum remains extremely undervalued at current levels and is trading at the exact range where major players are accumulating. The identified major support level appears to be holding, reinforcing the case for accumulation.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/xfFDiT6k/

Bitcoin remains within a consolidation range between $95.7K and $100K. Despite trading in this broader range, BTC’s overall trend remains bearish, struggling to flip bullish as the 55 EMA continues to reject attempts at a breakout to the upside.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 5 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/w06IuUm6/

Ethereum is currently attempting to flip bullish and push toward the key resistance level of $2,865. If ETH can break above the 55 EMA, which has consistently acted as a resistance throughout this bearish trend, a bullish breakout could follow. However, failure to do so may see ETH retrace toward the lower end of the range at $2,556.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 5 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Markets Wanted More—Sacks’ Speech Sends Bitcoin Lower

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 12:38:20 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

David Sacks' speech this morning was far from bearish—yet it wasn't the announcement investors were hoping for. It seems that unless the market hears the exact words "The Bitcoin Reserve is here," it reacts negatively.

The Bitcoin Czar declared that the Golden Age for digital assets is upon us. Sacks revealed that his primary focus is evaluating the feasibility of a Bitcoin Reserve, while also reinforcing the crucial role of stablecoins in maintaining US dollar dominance on the global stage.

In the lead-up to the speech, crypto markets were rallying, with Bitcoin briefly touching $101K. However, as soon as Sacks began speaking, the market took a dive. Since 6:30 AM, Bitcoin is down over 3%, with most altcoins seeing double-digit losses—turning the charts into a sea of red.

As always, when Bitcoin sneezes, altcoins collapse. This highlights Bitcoin’s strength relative to the rest of the market. Bitcoin dominance currently sits at 61.41% and remains bullish, reinforcing the importance of prioritising Bitcoin exposure in uncertain times.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($2,865)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/eAbbb86V/

Despite being the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum is still an altcoin—and as mentioned above, altcoins fall when Bitcoin stumbles. However, ETH’s major support at $2,770 has held up well, despite repeated tests over the past few days.

During last night's bearish price action, reports surfaced that Fidelity had just purchased another $49.75 million of Ethereum. This marks the second consecutive day that a major player has accumulated ETH. If institutions continue buying at these levels, it signals that they see ETH as undervalued—a strong indicator that retail investors may want to follow suit.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/kK8Bd6XL/

Bitcoin failed to hold above the key $100K level and has since bounced off support at $95.7K. Currently, momentum remains neutral, with moving averages trending sideways. Structurally, Bitcoin has confirmed a higher low but is still following a lower high, suggesting a consolidation phase between these two key levels.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 4 Feb: $ + 35.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/18tHiBpZ/

Ethereum remains range-bound between $2,556 (support) and $2,865 (resistance). The structure remains bearish, with multiple lower highs forming. A move towards the lower end of the range is likely unless ETH can break above the 21 & 55 EMAs, which would open the door for a challenge of range resistance.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 4 Feb: $ + 4.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

From Panic to Profit: Crypto Rebounds as Trade Tensions Ease

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 15:32:18 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

The past 24 hours have been a rollercoaster for cryptocurrency. Before many went to sleep, Bitcoin was trading in the low $90K region, and altcoins were down another 15%. But this morning, we've woken up to a sea of green.

The trade wars appeared to be in full swing, with markets reacting extremely poorly. A reported $2.3 billion in leveraged positions was liquidated from the crypto markets, marking one of the largest liquidation events in history. However, Bybit CEO Ben Zhou has challenged this figure, suggesting the real number sits between $8–$10 billion. Zhou backed up his claim by revealing Bybit’s actual liquidations over the last 24 hours, which stood at $2.1 billion—a stark contrast to Coinglass’ reported $333 million for Bybit alone.

The trade wars, however, seem to have taken a breather. Both Canada and the US have agreed to pause their recently announced tariffs for at least 30 days. In response, markets have rebounded, turning yesterday’s red into today’s green.

Market Recovery: A Reward for the Brave

Source:https://cryptobubbles.net/

Waking up to this market bounce was a pleasant surprise. As mentioned yesterday, those who took advantage of the extreme discounts have already started reaping the rewards. Bitcoin is back above $100K, Solana has reclaimed $215, and Sui and Ondo are both up 12% in the last 24 hours.

This bounce has stabilised the market and drastically shifted sentiment. Just yesterday, the Fear & Greed Index showed 25 (Extreme Fear). Now, it has jumped to 44, marking a significant recovery in investor confidence.

Eyes on David Sacks: The ‘Bitcoin Czar’ Speaks Tomorrow

Tomorrow, David Sacks, the ‘Bitcoin Czar’ and newly appointed head of the Digital Asset Stockpile, is set to hold a press conference. This event is expected to bring major updates on digital asset policies and regulation. Make sure to tune in at 6:30 AM AEST.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($2,865)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/tTdVTwtl/

Ethereum is currently battling with the daily open to close green after an extremely volatile 24 hours. After dipping to a low of $2,079, ETH has staged a recovery, reclaiming the major support level discussed yesterday.

Yes, ETH is underperforming the rest of the market, but it also remains incredibly undervalued. The first time Bitcoin reached $100K, ETH was $4,000. Now, Bitcoin is back at $100K, but ETH is still 30% lower.

I’m not the only one seeing the opportunity here. Eric Trump (son of US President Donald Trump) just tweeted:

"In my opinion, it’s a great time to add $ETH. You can thank me later."

Pair that with World Liberty Financial—the Trump-linked crypto project—acquiring another 86,000 ETH ($220M USD worth) yesterday, and it’s hard to ignore the bullish signals for Ethereum.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/TBcir962/

Bitcoin bounced perfectly off the new support CPR at $91.2K and found additional support at $92.5K before reversing 11% to reclaim $100K. BTC is now flipping momentum back to the bulls. If Bitcoin can hold above $100K and trade above its moving averages, we could see another attempt to flip $104K into support.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 3 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/DDW2N5DI/

Ethereum has seen a major reversal from its $2,079 low, now up 30% from that level. It is currently retesting a key resistance level at $2,865, alongside the CPR level. If ETH can flip these into support, it could be the first sign of sustained bullish momentum.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 3 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Trade Wars have Begun

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 15:24:20 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

The trade wars have gotten off to a rough start for all markets. Following the official imposition of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has responded with a retaliatory 25% tariff on $155 billion worth of US goods. In turn, President Trump has threatened to escalate tariffs on Canada in response to Trudeau’s move. We now eagerly await President Xi’s reaction, which could have significant market implications.

The threat of tariffs was no surprise—after all, it was a key selling point of Trump’s campaign to ‘save’ the US economy. However, now that the reality is here, markets have reacted negatively.

Traditional Markets Struggle to Recover

Just a week after the DeepSeek AI-driven market crash, markets have barely had a chance to breathe. Traditional indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to suffer, with Nasdaq futures opening 600 points down and S&P 500 futures dropping 120 points this morning. Meanwhile, the VIX—an index that measures market volatility—is set to open over 10% higher than its previous close. Both indices are now trading lower than they were in the immediate aftermath of last week’s crash.

Crypto Market Hit Hard as Bitcoin Falls Below $100K

This turmoil has bled into the crypto market as well. Bitcoin has now slipped back under $100K, currently trading at $96.7K—lower than it was during last week’s crash. Ethereum has dropped below $3,000, and Solana has once again fallen under $200.

Since Bitcoin’s high of $106K on Friday, it has retraced 8%, while Ethereum is down 17% and Solana 19%. All the hard work Bitcoin did to reclaim $100K and set up for a retest of all-time highs has been wiped out in just one weekend. This volatility serves as a reminder: having a clear long-term investment strategy is essential. Short-term swings can shake out weak hands, but those with long-term conviction will survive and ultimately prosper.

What Does This Trade War Mean for Crypto?

In the short term, expect more volatility. Altcoins have been decimated, and this is the period where conviction matters most. Investors with a strong belief in their chosen projects will see these 20%+ drops as opportunities to dollar-cost average. Even the strongest altcoins, like Sui and Ondo, have plunged 25% in recent days, yet those who remain confident in these projects are likely to take advantage of these discounts and reap the rewards when the market turns around.

Long term, nothing changes. Despite the current correlation with traditional markets, Bitcoin and crypto remain in a bull run, and a crypto-friendly US administration will continue to be a tailwind. These trade wars may create short-term fear, but they do not alter the bigger picture.

There are still major bullish catalysts ahead this year:

Interest rate cuts
The US government’s digital asset stockpile, which will see the US government begin accumulating Bitcoin (and potentially other cryptocurrencies) in its reserves

Last week, we saw the head of the Czech National Bank propose a plan to buy Bitcoin with their reserves. The play here is obvious: take advantage of the market-wide discounts, pick up Bitcoin, and then sit back and relax. Ignore the short-term noise—conviction is how you win in Bitcoin.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($2,842)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/MO1ottgT/

Since the last morning note, Ethereum has fallen 15%, breaking through the accumulation zone after setting up for a breakout. ETH is now testing a major support level that has historically acted as a key area for reversals.

This level should hold as strong support, making it a potential point for Ethereum to stabilise and reverse. However, if macroeconomic conditions remain bearish and continue to weigh on markets, ETH could fall further.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GmqY59ru/

Bitcoin is now testing key support at $95.7K, as the trade war intensifies. The selling pressure has been relentless, with BTC slicing through previous support levels with ease. If $95.7K fails to hold, Bitcoin is likely to retest a major prior support level at $92.5K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 2 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZMbnSgZx/

On the short-term time frame, Ethereum continues to break below key levels with little support. ETH has now fallen below $2,865, where buyers previously stepped in. However, buying momentum seems to have dried up as selling pressure persists.

If ETH does not reverse soon, the next major downside target is $2,555.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 2 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Crypto Starts February on the Back Foot as Markets React to Tariffs

Sat, 01 Feb 2025 12:34:43 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Despite January closing on a positive note and proving to be a strong month for Bitcoin, the past 24 hours have delivered poor price action following what initially appeared to be a promising start to February. In the last six hours alone, Bitcoin has dropped over 4%, falling back to just above $102K.

Some are attributing this sudden correction to the White House’s recent confirmation that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with 10% tariffs on China, will go into effect on February 1. Many economic analysts remain highly sceptical about the tariffs, arguing that they will provide no benefit and actually hinder everyday Americans. Since the confirmation was made in the early hours of the morning, all major markets have declined. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen, triggering a domino effect across the crypto markets, with Bitcoin and most altcoins following suit. Even traditional ‘safe havens’ like gold have taken a hit, while the US dollar has strengthened, indicating broader risk-off sentiment.

Despite the broader bearish trend in crypto, two major projects have stood out—not only outperforming Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies but also managing to close the day with solid gains. These are Ethereum (ETH) and Sonic (S). Over the last two days, Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin by nearly 8%, providing the first glimmer of hope for ETH bulls. Meanwhile, despite weak price action following the Fantom-to-Sonic migration, Sonic has begun to show some positive signs, gaining 30% in just two days.

That being said, Bitcoin remains the key driver of the market, still locked in the $100K–$109.9K range that it has occupied for the past couple of weeks. Will February finally break this prolonged consolidation, or is it time for Ethereum to take the lead?

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($3,301)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/zoFBOua7/

Ethereum has shown exceptional strength in recent days, rewarding those who accumulated ETH within the highlighted support zone. Currently trading at $3,300, ETH is up 10% from the bottom of the range, after reaching a high of $3,437 yesterday. This marked a higher high based on the wick high.

However, ETH’s momentum has slightly stalled following the broader market reaction to the tariff news. That said, the bullish structure remains intact. If ETH can clear the 55 EMA, this should reaffirm the uptrend and lead to further gains.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/QCZHR9pC/

Bitcoin looked poised to establish a solid base above $104K and attempt a move toward its all-time highs. However, this did not play out, as BTC sharply fell below this key level, flipping all moving averages and shifting momentum back in favour of the bears.

Despite this setback, the overall bullish structure remains intact—for now. As long as this low holds, another attempt to reclaim $104K remains possible. However, if it fails, BTC could quickly retest $100K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 31 Jan: $ - 51.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/em8dGwfc/

As noted earlier, Ethereum has been outperforming Bitcoin in the past couple of days, and this strength is evident in the price action. ETH has maintained higher highs and higher lows, keeping its bullish momentum intact despite the current pullback.

The key level to watch is $3,370—if the 55 EMA holds as support, ETH is likely to retest this level and continue its uptrend.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 31 Jan: $ - 31.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Closes an Eventful January in the Green

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 18:25:20 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

An event-packed January comes to an end, and Bitcoin is set to close positive once more, up 11%. This month saw Bitcoin trade back under $90K for the first time since mid-November, new all-time highs, and price catalyst events that seemed to emerge every few days. From bearish events such as the US DOJ's clearance to sell seized assets, the lack of any mention of crypto in Trump’s inauguration speech, and DeepSeek AI posing a threat to US AI stocks, to bullish catalysts like a dovish tone from Powell and a pro-crypto executive order, the market experienced a constant push and pull.

For those who capitalised on the volatility and corrections that Bitcoin provided throughout the month, the rewards have already been significant—with the potential for much more. This serves as a strong reminder to take advantage of corrections and buy when the rest of the market is fearful.

The past 24 hours have provided a strong finish for the overall crypto market, with about 95% of the top 100 projects posting positive returns, the majority gaining at least 5% or more.

Looking ahead to February, we anticipate less volatility in terms of key catalyst events, which could ultimately work in Bitcoin’s favor. A distraction-free month may allow natural price action to take the lead. Bitcoin remains in a bullish structure and trend on every timeframe, making February look promising for the bulls.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($3,250)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/FlgQJHgs/

Ethereum has shown positive price action after spending several days within the accumulation zone. ETH is now up over 5% from yesterday’s low, showing promising signs as it sets a higher low. Currently, ETH is battling the 21 EMA and is soon to test the 55 EMA resistance levels. To continue its move higher toward the first target, ETH needs to clear both of these moving averages.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdJ9IOoo/

Bitcoin has successfully flipped the key $104K resistance into support, re-establishing bullish structure and momentum. A retest of the $104K level seems likely—if it holds, we can expect an upward move that could see Bitcoin retest its all-time high in early February.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 30 Jan: $ +23.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/h4qmsXH7/

Much like Bitcoin, Ethereum has flipped its key resistance into support, shifting the momentum and structure back to the bulls. ETH has also cleared all moving averages, which are clustered around the $3,207 level. This region will be key for ETH to hold in order to trade higher and target the next level at $3,370.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 30 Jan: $ - 27.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: January

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 17:31:20 +1100

January Sets the Stage for a Bullish 2025

From Doubt to Dominance

In the early days of Bitcoin, many traditional financial leaders and government officials viewed it with scepticism and even hostility. For instance, in 2019, former President Donald Trump stated, "I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air." Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink had once dismissed Bitcoin as an "index of money laundering." The mainstream narrative painted Bitcoin as a tool for criminals, a speculative bubble, or, at best, a niche asset for tech enthusiasts.

Yet, Bitcoin persisted. During 80% drawdowns, it faced relentless criticism: media headlines called it a scam, governments threatened regulation, and financial institutions openly mocked its supporters. Over the last five years, Bitcoin experienced immense volatility—falling below $4,000 in 2020, then $10,000, $20,000, $30,000, and $40,000, eventually creating new highs. Each price collapse was met with critics celebrating Bitcoin's 'downfall', yet every drawdown offered a historic opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin.

The individuals who bought during these crashes—who held extreme conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term vision—understood that mainstream adoption was inevitable. They weren’t swayed by FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt); instead, they recognised Bitcoin’s value proposition and its potential to be integrated into the global financial system.

Fast forward to January 2024, and the landscape had dramatically shifted. Bitcoin was trading around $40,000, and the launch of the first Bitcoin ETFs marked a historic moment where traditional finance finally embraced digital assets. BlackRock, once sceptical, now led the charge with its Bitcoin ETF, alongside other Wall Street giants.

By January 2025, Bitcoin’s ascent continued, surpassing $100,000 and proving that those who bet against it had once again been wrong. This time, the adoption wave wasn’t limited to asset managers—the U.S. government itself had stepped in. In a groundbreaking move, President Trump signed an executive order supporting Bitcoin and pro-crypto policies, marking the first official embrace of Bitcoin at the highest level of government. The man who once dismissed Bitcoin as "thin air" was now positioning himself as "The Crypto President." Over the past year, he has repeatedly praised Bitcoin and crypto, emphasising the importance of "financial freedom" and a "pro-Bitcoin stance" for America's economic future.

This transformation—from rejection to adoption—has solidified Bitcoin's role as a legitimate global asset. The past two Januaries have validated everything Bitcoin believers had envisioned: first, institutional adoption through ETFs, and now, the governmental embrace of Bitcoin as an economic force. Those who doubted Bitcoin during the bear markets, waiting for it to "go to zero," have been proven wrong time and time again.

As we stand in January 2025, Bitcoin’s journey is far from over. If history has taught us anything, it’s that Bitcoin doesn’t just survive—it thrives. And those who understand its long-term trajectory will continue to benefit from the opportunities it presents.

A Busy Yet Consolidative January

Source:: https://www.tradingview.com/x/YOnYYGEJ/

January 2025 seemed relatively slow in terms of price action, with Bitcoin hovering around $100,000 despite its intra-month highs and lows. However, this apparent calm belied a storm of events shaping the crypto market.

From Bitcoin’s 16th birthday to U.S. government drama, inflation data, and Chinese AI developments, the month was anything but quiet. Bitcoin started January strong, with seven consecutive days of bullish price action before bearish news hit the markets.

Just over a week before President Trump’s inauguration, the U.S. Department of Justice announced plans to sell 69,000 Bitcoin it had seized. This move shocked many, particularly as Trump had previously vowed not to sell seized Bitcoin during his presidency. The timing, just days before his inauguration, felt deliberate.

This bearish revelation, combined with disappointing employment data, pushed Bitcoin lower. However, the release of bullish CPI data for risk-on assets saw Bitcoin rally back above $100,000. Days before Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin remained steady, but the inauguration speech itself brought the anticipated volatility. After dropping briefly below $100,000 due to no mention of Bitcoin in the speech, it quickly rallied to new all-time highs near $110,000.

The post-inauguration week was packed with crypto-related government developments, including:

The resignation of Gary Gensler.
The creation of a Crypto Task Force within the SEC.
A pro-crypto executive order to establish a national digital asset stockpile.

Bitcoin consolidated between $100,000 and $109,900 until another significant event disrupted the markets: the launch of DeepSeek AI, a Chinese-developed open-source AI protocol seen as a competitor to ChatGPT. The announcement sent ripples through global markets, especially tech-heavy sectors. The NASDAQ opened 1.2% lower due to the dominance of AI-related stocks, with NVIDIA recording a $600 billion single-day market cap wipeout—the largest in history.

Crypto wasn’t immune to this shock, with Bitcoin briefly falling 5% to dip below $100,000. However, Bitcoin and altcoins rebounded strongly. Bitcoin reclaimed $104,000, while projects like Sui, Ripple, and Ondo recovered their losses and rallied to new highs.

The final event of the month was the heavily anticipated FOMC interest rate decision. Although a rate cut was deemed highly unlikely, the market still reacted negatively to the announcement of no cut. However, a dovish tone from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided relief, sending Bitcoin from $101,000 to $105,000.

Looking ahead, February has historically been one of Bitcoin’s most bullish months, with an average return of 16.6%. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could end February at approximately $122,500. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results.

In the News:

Stormrake Client Portal:

We are thrilled to announce the Stormrake Client Portal. Here’s what’s waiting for you:

A secure, intuitive way to view your crypto assets.
Real-time insights into your portfolio.
A foundation for even greater features coming soon.

In the coming days, Stormrake clients will receive an email inviting them to the new Stormrake Client Portal.

Czech Republic BTC Accumulation:

Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has proposed allocating 5% of the 140 million euros within the central bank’s reserves to Bitcoin, which could make the CNB the first Western central bank to officially buy and hold Bitcoin.

Ross Ulbricht Pardoned:

During his campaign, President Trump pledged to pardon Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, a move widely supported by the crypto community. On his first day in office, he delivered on that promise, securing Ulbricht’s release.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in January 2025:

Bitcoin ends January up 11%.
XRP becomes the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Solana drops to 5th place.
DOGE flips USDC to take 7th place.
TRUMP token storms into the top 35 within 48 hours of launch.

Video of the month

The Pro-Crypto Executive Order Explained

Education: Bitcoin’s Rising Dominance: The Great Coin Dilution Effect

Over the past few years, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed an explosion of new tokens. Thousands of projects launch daily, and millions of new coins enter circulation. Despite this relentless expansion, Bitcoin’s price has not only increased but dominance has strengthened.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Bitcoin dominance (BTC’s share of the total crypto market value) has risen from 40% to 59% in three years.
Ethereum (ETH), once holding 18% of total market capitalisation, has slipped to 10%.
All other coins combined have fallen from 42% to 30%.

The Rise of Disposable Coins

98% of memecoins fail to survive longer than three months.
10,417 tokens are launched daily, yet 9,912 become defunct.
The average lifespan of a memecoin is just 12 days.
15% of memecoins die within one day of launch.

Source: https://chainplay.gg/blog/lifespan-pump-fun-memecoins-analysis/

This rapid churn dilutes the altcoin market, siphons investor capital into speculative plays, and undermines long-term confidence in the sector.

Altcoin Dilution: The Flood vs. the Foundation

While Bitcoin operates on a strict fixed supply of 21 million, the altcoin market is inundated with tokens, many of which are inflationary or poorly structured. This has two major effects:

Capital Dilution – With every new token, available liquidity fragments further, reducing the ability of altcoins to sustain long-term value.
Market Confidence Erosion – As most altcoins fail, capital rotates into Bitcoin, reinforcing its position as a safe haven.

Decoupling of Bitcoin and Altcoin Market Caps

Historically, Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market have moved in tandem. During bull markets, altcoins often outperformed Bitcoin, acting as leverage on BTC’s price action. Conversely, during bear markets, altcoins experienced sharper declines, with their lack of liquidity amplifying losses

However, the chart above points to a clear decoupling trend.

Bitcoin is increasingly diverging from the broader crypto market. Historically, speculative "alt seasons" drove temporary outperformance by altcoins, but this dynamic appears to be fading. As the latest market trends indicate, Bitcoin is beginning to leave the rest of the crypto market behind.

Key Observations:

Bitcoin’s Rising Market Cap

Since 2022, Bitcoin’s market cap has consistently trended upwards, reflecting growing demand from institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, and individuals seeking a secure, scarce digital asset.
Altcoin Market Cap Stagnation

In contrast, altcoins have struggled with choppy price action, as continuous dilution from speculative token launches undermines growth and fragments liquidity.
The End of "Alt Seasons"

The previous trend of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin during speculative phases is fading, reinforcing Bitcoin’s dominance and decoupling from the broader market.

What This Means

This decoupling reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment. Bitcoin’s scarcity, unrivalled security, and growing institutional adoption make it increasingly differentiated. Meanwhile, the altcoin market struggles with rampant speculation, daily dilution, and high failure rates.

The Takeaway: Buy and Hold Bitcoin

Despite millions of new tokens flooding the market, Bitcoin’s dominance is rising—a testament to its resilience and appeal. In a world awash with disposable tokens, Bitcoin’s stability and scarcity make it the clear standout

Written by Alexandar Artis

Memes of the month

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Rebounds After Volatile FOMC Event

Thu, 30 Jan 2025 14:09:46 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

As expected, the US Federal Reserve made no changes to interest rates this morning. Despite this widely anticipated decision, which had almost a 100% probability of no cut leading into the announcement, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market experienced significant volatility, beginning to decline within minutes of the news. Within the first 18 minutes, Bitcoin fell 1.43% to $101.3k before rebounding in anticipation of Powell’s speech.

At first, the market reaction wasn’t looking great. A sharp drop followed the expected no rate cut, but Powell's tone proved pivotal. Rather than a hawkish stance, he leaned dovish, signalling that policymakers are in no hurry to lower interest rates further. He emphasised the need for consistent inflation data before considering additional easing and expressed confidence in the current policy stance, citing a strong labour market and expectations of continued inflation progress.

Once the market detected the dovish tone, Bitcoin reversed course and began to rally, reaching a high of $104.7k just an hour later. This shift led to a sea of green across the crypto market. However, Bitcoin’s strength was not entirely mirrored by major altcoins…

The three largest altcoins—Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple—all followed Bitcoin’s rally post-FOMC but struggled to hold gains. Unlike Bitcoin, which is now almost $1,000 higher than yesterday, none of these projects managed to close or trade above their previous day's price levels. A disappointing outcome, but at least the market emerged from this major event relatively unscathed.

Meanwhile, strong projects like Ondo continued to impress, closing over 10% up yesterday. Even Sonic—a fundamentally great project that has underperformed price-wise—saw a 12% daily gain.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($3,000)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/jcPZ7aUv/

Ethereum has seen a volatile 24 hours, remaining within its accumulation zone after an attempted breakout was rejected at the top of the range. Now that the FOMC meeting is behind us and Bitcoin is positioned well, we can expect ETH to follow Bitcoin’s momentum. While it may not match Bitcoin in strength, ETH should see positive price action if Bitcoin continues to rally.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bH1kSO5D/

The bullish divergence played out perfectly as Bitcoin surged, attempting to break above the key $104k level. This move, fueled by Powell’s slightly dovish tone, marks Bitcoin’s second attempt at clearing this resistance. If BTC can consolidate around this level before reclaiming it, we could see another push towards all-time highs. However, if BTC faces a firm rejection, a move back towards $100k is likely.

For now, structure and momentum remain bullish unless Bitcoin falls below $101.4k. The overall trend is still strong, and with ETF inflows remaining positive, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above this critical level will be key in determining the next move.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 29 Jan: $ +102.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/4uP20CCM/

While Bitcoin challenges a key resistance level, Ethereum continues to struggle with its 55 EMA, having been rejected from it for the fifth time in the last three days. To regain bullish momentum, ETH must break through this moving average resistance. The good news is that ETH has been consistently printing higher lows, a positive sign that buyers are stepping in at higher price points.

If this trend continues, it should only be a matter of time before ETH breaks the 55 EMA and reclaims the $3,207 level. However, failure to do so could see further downside pressure, especially if Bitcoin struggles to hold its gains.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 29 Jan: $ - 19.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.