A clearer image of the above chart can be found here (tradingview: https://www.tradingview.com/x/FouWe2J9/)

Core CPI, CPI m/m and CPI y/y data all coming in under expectations via (https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar)

Reach out to us at Stormrake for further market insight and allow us to help you navigate the sea of mania and laser-eye memes, so that you can realise your goals in the market!

Welcome to another Riveting Rake Review as August delivered on some volatility and news again. From Supply shocks, to Aussie Banking issues, to ETF's, to Russian Billionaires accidentally being blown up, we go around the world as Bitcoin quietly counts down to the next halving in April.

Just as we were sending out the Rake Review huge news came through again. We had to delay the newsletter and add this key development. 

Judge Srinivasan & Edwards found that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was wrong to reject Greyscales ETF application and failed to explain their rejection. 

The result can still be challenged but if it stands is enormous for Bitcoin and the whole industry. For Greyscale it means they could turn their current Bitcoin fund into an ETF. Their current fund is the worlds largest holder of Bitcoin (Other than the Satoshi holding). 

It also means that there is great hope for the other 7 ETF applications currently before the SEC. As you will read below in the body of this newsletter we already see the ETF applications as the biggest catalyst for the next Bull-run.

Bitcoin has already responded in trading this morning up over 6% to almost $28,000 USD. The wider crypto market has also been dragged up by this news with ETH and SOL up 5%. As the market digests the news further how will this play out?

We will post a full analysis of this news in a separate article today.

The supply of coins on exchange is historically very low. According to Coinglass, less than 10% of Bitcoin supply is accessible through exchanges. That means the rest is safely put away in cold storage or similar. Available supply is extremely low. 

Look at the green line below. Less than 2 Million BTC is on exchange.

Bitcoin on exchange is now at a 5 year low, despite 5 years of mining adding to the supply. There is significant accumulation going on amongst the whales (large holders) and according to some reports Wall St funds are starting to accumulate a position ahead of launching their ETF's. It's an environment where any demand shock could spark a sharp rise.

Which Bank has sent a letter to every customer telling them that they can't send any more than $10,000 AUD per month to cryptocurrency exchanges? The Commonwealth Bank.

ANZ and NAB seem to also be looking at similar rules. Its a very concerning development for a western country. All of a sudden the Bank gets to choose what you can spend your "hard earned" on. That's despite the fact that its all legal. They just don't think the industry is a "good fit" or fits within their "risk appetite". With cash disappearing at a rapid rate in Australia its a real concern that we are seeing the future unfold. CBDC's are on the way and you might be looking into a little window of your future where you will be told what you can and can't spend your money on. Meat, fatty foods, coke, fast food, guns, produce of countries we don't approve, etc etc.

The key here is this. While you can buy Bitcoin you really need to because your AUD offramp could be cut at anytime and then you physically won't be able to buy while watching the price rocket and not being able to do anything about it.

We wrote about this in detail in our Thunder Trading update so I won't go into great detail here. However, given that this is key news, what you need to know is that the SEC has filed for an appeal. 

The curtain has not yet fallen on the riveting drama between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs. What once was hailed as a pivotal moment with the July 13 ruling is now heating up with an appeal, bringing further uncertainty to the crypto sphere.

Read more here.

A further demand side shock is expected from any movement on the approval process for US based Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's). While some players have had applications before the SEC for quite some time, the entry of BlackRock has been significant. Other players have quickly filed changes to their applications to be in line with BlackRocks filing. The reasoning is simple, BlackRock has an incredible track record of succeeding so the others want to be as similar as possible so that the SEC has no choice but to accept all of them if they want to approve BlackRock. 

So, we are witnessing the single biggest catalyst that could start the next BTC bullrun. If all of these funds are simultaneously approved the demand it brings in is incredible. Given the already low supply and the halving this could ignite the whole market.

ETH is also there with the same players filing for ETH based ETF's also. 

The Bitcoin Halving is under 2/3 of a year away. In April, the amount of BTC released every block will halve lowering supply to hit the market. In the past this has helped put a supply shock into the market and we have seen what can happen to price. Don't get caught short.

• The Bitcoin HashRate has been widely reported as hitting a record high. Unlike traditional crypto winters where hashrate has dipped, this time around hashrate is flying. 
• The Russian Mercenary General and Billionare Prigozhin killed in a recent flight near Moscow has been linked to one of the largest crypto wallets. While you should take this with a grain of salt, it would certainly be interesting if true and would pose the question of whether he passed on his private keys.
  
• Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF applications in the US reach a record number with Wall St funds lining up to have a crack at the large end of town's demand for crypto.
• Ilya "Dutch" Lichtenstein admitted to being the Bitfinex hacker as part of his guilty plea. That hack was the largest ever and LEO holders are lining up for their piece of the seized funds.
  

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

In the rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin stands out as a pioneering stalwart. But when it comes to buying Bitcoin, there's an old adage that goes, “Everyone gets the price they deserve." This phrase may sound philosophical at first, but it carries deep financial wisdom, especially in the context of the dynamic Bitcoin market. So, what does this mean for potential investors and enthusiasts? Let's break it down.

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

You may have heard about early adopters buying Bitcoin at under $1. While that is true you should never envy them. Firstly, they deserve what they got because they invested in bitcoin when no one had heard of it and the tech was purely an experiment. They risked their money before Bitcoin exchanges even existed and they deserve the reward. Secondly its not too late. The price you get today comes with the certainty that Bitcoin is no longer an experiment. Bitcoin will survive and has the track record to prove it. It's never too late!

If you enjoyed this Thunder Trading, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

Welcome to another jam packed Rake Review as July delivered on news and controversy again. From Central Banks, to Regional Banks, to BRICS, to China, to new listings that claim to be the answer "Worldcoin", we go around the world as Bitcoin quietly counts down to the next halving in April.

We've talked a lot about the dangers of manipulated money markets and how the outcomes of that manipulation lead to poor economic outcomes. This month we saw no less than the Australian Central Bank's (RBA) governor be replaced with him being out of a job by September this year. 

Earlier Phillip Lowe (RBA Chief) told Australians that near zero interest rates would not rise for until at least 2024. Since then we saw the steepest rise in rates in Australia's history. Mortgage payers are understandably upset and the anger was felt at the recent parliamentary enquiry. The result - Swapping Phillip Lowe for his deputy. A change aimed at appeasing the angry populace that is struggling under the weight of enormous interest repayments but a change that will have zero impact as long as the RBA mandate remains the same. Another change is that the RBA will move from monthly meetings to 1 & a half  monthly. You are expected to believe that 8 interest rises a year will be better than 12. That's for people that don't know that it doesn't matter how many slices a pizza has - its the total size. It's like walking into a restaurant and asking it to be cut into 8 instead of 12 because you aren't very hungry.

The US has only 8 meetings a year for the Fed but that hasn't stopped them from having the steepest climb of interest rates in their history. Yesterday, true to his word the Fed chair Jerome Powell announced yet another rise of 0.25%. He is currently at no risk of being replaced like his Australian cousin. In fact, while recession fears abound in parts of the economy, this month actually makes it look like a soft landing is possible. Data suggests that inflation is moderating (in both Australia & the US), and parts of the economy are surprisingly resilient. For example, jobs data is still very strong. Could the US achieve a soft landing? Could we see inflation being lowered at the same time as the economy doesn't get destroyed? Our base case would be that as soon as the Fed lowers rates we see inflation kick up again.

While news filters through of China's foreign minister Qin Gang being purged from the records, China's growth seems to have stagnated. China was very slow to leave the COVID lockdown madness. They only abandoned target zero once there was mass unrest in the provinces to the point where the Communist party's authority was in doubt. Once opening up China has struggled to regain their growth rate with high youth unemployment and significant problems in the property sector. Having said all that, official growth is still over 6% annualised which in the western world would be fantastic growth. As a result, it seems likely China will cut interest rates and take other measures to free up credit which outs pressure on the US to do the same.

After the Banking crisis (spate of Bank failures and bailouts) in the US we had in March, we saw another Bank go down in July. PacWest (another regional bank) had lost 2/3 of its value after clients started to seek to move their deposits to safer (guaranteed) banks. The Banc of California has agreed to buy the whole of PacWest.

However, the big question remains which is: Will this latest failure trigger a new waive of Bank failures. No one knows exactly how much losses banks are carrying from over investment in government Bonds that have crashed since the Fed started its tightening cycle. By some accounts a significant number of Banks in the US and around the world are technically insolvent.

We wrote about this in detail in our Thunder Trading update so I won't go into great detail here. However, given that this is key news, what you need to know is that on the whole the SEC suffered a defeat and Ripple is clear of charges that it sold unregistered securities (to retail clients at least). It's a huge win for the crypto industry and a reason to be bullish going into the halving and a period of time where crypto prices are a rubber band ready to fly. XRP, XLM, SOL and many others are up significantly since the ruling was announced.

As a slight warning, it is still possible that the SEC could appeal. Lyn Alden has recently said that she thinks there is a high likelihood of an appeal given the SEC's comments on the decision.

Blackrock has filed for a Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) at the SEC and others have either followed or changed their filing to be in line with that of Blackrock. The reason for that is simple, Blackrock, the worlds largest fund manager has an impeccable track record of succeeding in its filings. No one has yet succeeded to get an ETF up in the US but with Blackrock's filing the odds of success seem to have increased. 

More than that, Blackrock seems to have already invested in BTC with Larry Fink once a detractor now publicly spruiking Bitcoin as a truly global investment. Again this is incredibly positive news for the industry as the amount of funds under the control of Blackrosk and the other fund managers is astronomic compared to Bitcoins tiny 570BN USD Market Cap. If they invest, Bitcoins price could rocket. We have saved the Video of the Month below for Larry.

Oh, by the way, Blackrock now suggesting 84.9% Bitcoin allocation is the way to go. That's pretty crazy even by our standards.

The biggest launch of July was Worldcoin (WLD). Founded by Sam Altman, the man behind Open AI, Worldcoin is a controversial ID technology delivered through the global power of crypto. If you think that sounds amazing, think again as many think this could usher in a dystopian future. Ben Simpson of Collective Shift says "The big issue becomes who we want to create and gate-keep our digital identities."

Do you actually want your eyes biometrically scanned for your digital wallet and digital ID?  Strangely, thousands of people are lining up.  Also, unsurprisingly, the tokenomics here are designed to make huge money for the founders. Only a small % of the total supply is released and market makers have been called in to set the price where founders want it. Beware.

Finally, the Bitcoin Halving is under 3/4 of a year away. In April, the amount of BTC released every block will halve lowering supply to hit the market. In the past this has helped put a supply shock into the market and we have seen what can happen to price. Don't get caught short.

• More rumblings around the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China +) introducing a new gold backed currency to replace the USD
  
• DOGE coin rallied on the back of news that that Twitter's rebrand will introduce a DOGE payment option as Musk makes waives again.
  
• CZ and Binance fighting back against CFTC in new filing
  
• After halting rates last meeting the Fed increases 0.25%. Larry Fink expects another 1% worth of rises over the next year.

For something completely different and a bit more fun we wrote an article about schooling and education. Take a break from finance, crypto and economics and have a leisurely read here: https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/the-world-is-run-by-c-students

Where do you sit on this: Do C students Run the World? Do A students Rule? Can someone without a high school diploma succeed in business? 

Is Schooling actually serving our children in 2023?

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

The 33rd President of the United States, Harry S Truman is credited with the quote "The 'C' students run the world". Truman was incredible at understanding people and communication. A keen student of human psychology Truman, knew every white house employee by name including the gardeners and kitchen staff. 

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

Einstein was quoted in the New York Times, loosely echoing Mark Twain's sentiment in saying that schooling can actually hurt the natural curiosity of children when done in the wrong way. Einstein himself, touted as the worlds smartest man ever, actually struggled with his schooling. At one point teachers thought he was wasting his time in school and should just leave to learn a trade. How wrong they were!

Richard Branson, Virgin founder and life-long entrepreneur was a high school drop out who was committed to education but not schooling. He always felt schooling stunted his creativity and drove conformity to behavioural standards without allowing for free thought and challenging the curriculum. 

Successful author, entrepreneur and Bitcoin investor Robert Kyosaki wrote a book called "Why "A" students work for "C" students and he hit the nail on the head. "A" students tend to be conformists and buy into the status quo career path. They make excellent employees because they can work within a system set for them and do it well. However their boss is usually a eccentric, entrepreneurial, former C student who pushes the boundaries and challenges the rules that govern our society and economy.

Even making the decision of which student should go to the next level or qualify for a scholarship or an extension program is hard. Steven Spielberg, widely seen as the standard for cinematography and directing was himself 3 times rejected from USCS Cinematic Arts. He didn't have the best grades. Was that because he was no good or was the schooling system not designed to recognise greatness. Incidentally, Spielberg went back and finished College later in life as a gift to his parents.

If you enjoyed this Thunder Trading, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

The allure of the cryptocurrency market, with its rapid growth and volatility, has attracted both new and seasoned investors alike. While assets like Bitcoin have revolutionised the way we perceive global finance, they also come with their fair share of risks. Effective risk management is the cornerstone of sustainable trading and investing. In this article, we'll explore the fundamentals of risk management in cryptocurrency trading, ensuring you're equipped with the knowledge to safeguard your investments.

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

If you enjoyed this Thunder Trading, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

There are 2 weeks to go until the end of the Financial year in Australia. Are you ready with your tax strategy? We will discuss this later but first we have so much news in such a short period of time. The SEC is going to war with the largest crypto exchanges in the world while declaring more and more currencies as "unregistered securities". What does this mean for the industry, your investments and the next bull run?

Binance had previously already been flagged as the "bad guy" when the CFTC released a detailed dosier alleging that Binance targeted US customers without a licence, traded against their own clients with hidden accounts as well as a raft of other impropriety so it was no surprise when the SEC officially went after them. The biggest exchange in the world is now in damage control with the founder CZ desperately trying to maintain the status quo. CZ has recently been accused of selling BTC to buy BNB (The Binance token) in order to defend the price of it from free falling. If you recall what happened with Sam (SBF)  and FTX this all seems like a perfect mirror image. Needless to say if you have funds on Binance or hold the BNB token please speak to us urgently and work out a plan of action. 

The following day after suing Binance the SEC officially went after Coinbase. This was more of a surprise because Coinbase was seen as a good actor trying to walk the path of full transparency and legitimacy. Under SEC's watch Coinbase listed on the US stock exchange and became the largest custodian of funds including for Greyscale and Blackrock. Brian Armstrong the CEO has been vocal in trying to work with regulators to make sure they could operate by the book. Coinbase had reached an impasse with the SEC recently and threatened to go completely offshore by leaving the US. So, the legal action makes it clear the SEC sees the whole crypto industry as a threat and the announcements took a swipe at several prominent cryptocurrencies. For a full list see here.

The implications are significant for the web3 and crypto industry. Effectively, the current environment makes it impossible for a new coin to be available for sale in the US. Now, given the global nature of cryptocurrencies the US regulators see global issues as US issues. Every founder of a cryptocurrency that has been named as a security may soon find themselves in trouble with the law. Now do you see why Satoshi disappeared? 

As an investor you have to ask yourself: Should I still be holding Cardano or Matic or BNB? What does the future hold? The answer is important. Many of our clients have chosen to consolidate their altcoins into Bitcoin (BTC).

Bitcoin is now at almost 50% dominance again. This means that Bitcoins value is half of all the other (top100) cryptocurrencies put together. The other currencies come and go. They have their time in the sun and then fade into insignificance. The greater fool theory has it that you can make money if the guy you sell to is a greater fool than you are. As the price rises everyone wins until the last guy gets stuck holding a bag of worthless tokens.

Bitcoin is different. It is not a security according to the SEC. It also doesn't have a founder or headquarters that you can send a subpoena to. It can't be sued. It can't be stopped and it can't be controlled by the government or the regulators.  

The Largest Home Loan Bank in Australia CBA has updated its fraud system and set a limit of 10,000 per calendar month for deposits to crypto exchanges as well as a compulsory 24 hr block. It's the kind of overreach we haven't seen yet from banks in Australia. Is there more to come? Either way, as we always say, deposits to Stormrake should never say "crypto" or "BTC". Please only use your customer ID as the reference and no description. We have never had a problem and we'd like to avoid any issues in the future. For now we have full complete access to all our Banks and can fully service all AUD needs. If anyone has a banking issue please let us know.

Meanwhile the Australian Bitcoin Industry Body has officially replied to the CBA:

As Financial Year 2023 draws to a close, we remind all clients to have a think about their positions. Note that we do not provide financial advice and we are not tax experts or accountants. However, there is only 2 weeks left in the financial year for any trades to count towards FY23. Speak to your accountants as to what is best for your tax position and let us know if you need to transact.

As the year draws to a close Stormrake will charge the accrued custody fees for all accounts holding crypto. Look out for that in your next statement which will detail any charges.

• SEC files lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase on consecutive days. These are the 2 largest centralised exchanges in the world. Coinbase especially was trying to be a fully regulated exchange and listed in the US under the watch of the SEC. The SEC also declared a new list of cryptocurrencies as securities. Full list here: Contact your broker if you have these tokens.
  
• Commonwealth Bank announces all withdrawals to crypto exchanges will be held for 24hrs to protect their clients from fraud.
  
• BlackRock files for a Bitcoin only Spot ETF (Technically a trust) in a complete 180 after calling Bitcoin an "Index of Money Laundering" in 2013. BlackRock is the worlds biggest fund manager.
  
• The RBA raises rates again by 0.25% but the Fed decides to halt for the first time since the record tightening began.
  

During the week we wrote an education piece on the way that SEC looks at what is and isn't a security. The Howie Test is used to decide and if a cryptocurrency is a security it needs to fully comply with securities law in the US. Bitcoin is not a security and never was. The article here looks at this in more detail.

Many people think confiscation is impossible in the western world but studying history allows us to see that confiscations have happened before and there is a chance of confiscations in the future. The article here looks at what happened in more detail.

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

The recent lawsuits filed by the SEC against Binance and Coinbase have sparked discussions about the classification of cryptocurrencies as securities. The Howey Test, a legal framework used by the SEC to determine whether an investment qualifies as a security, plays a crucial role in these debates. While the SEC argues that several tokens meet the criteria outlined in the Howey Test, it is important to note that Bitcoin stands apart from this classification. Additionally, Bitcoin's decentralized nature poses unique challenges for regulatory bodies. This article delves into the Howey Test, the exclusion of Bitcoin as a security, and the implications of its decentralized structure.

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

One notable exception from the list of tokens subject to scrutiny is Bitcoin. Unlike the tokens in question, Bitcoin holds a distinct position when it comes to securities regulation. This is primarily due to two factors: the absence of pre-mining and the lack of an expectation of benefit during its creation. Bitcoin's decentralized and open nature, as envisioned by its anonymous creator or creators using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, sets it apart from tokens that were pre-mined or created with the expectation of profit.

Another key aspect of Bitcoin's distinction lies in its decentralized structure. Unlike traditional assets and many other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin does not have a centralized authority, CEO, or headquarters. While this decentralization is one of Bitcoin's core strengths, regulatory bodies like the SEC are powerless to impose "regulation by enforcement". Since there is no specific entity to hold accountable or communicate with, there is no way to sue bitcoin or harm the founder.

If you enjoyed this Thunder Trading, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

Throughout history, gold has held a prominent place in human civilization, representing wealth, power, and stability. In the United States, the relationship between the government and gold has had its share of significant events, including the infamous "Great Gold Confiscation" in the 20th century. This article delves into the short history of gold regulation in the USA, exploring the circumstances surrounding this extraordinary event.

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

The US and the world in general was running out of gold. In response to the Great Depression, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Emergency Banking Act into law on March 9, 1933. Officially, the act aimed to stabilize the banking system and revive the economy. It included provisions that impacted the ownership and trading of gold by US citizens.

Knowing the history of Gold confiscation in the USA leads to the inevitable question: Can the government confiscate Bitcoin if it gets too valuable? Bitcoiners worry about this possibility and this is where proper storage comes in. If you hold your own keys it is very hard for confiscations to occur. If you store Bitcoin on exchange it is very easy for the government to come in and confiscate en masse. Consider how YOU store your Bitcoin

If you enjoyed this Thunder Trading, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

If you're delving into the world of cryptocurrencies, you've likely come across terms like "Hashing" and "SHA-256". In this piece, we'll explore the significance of SHA-256, a vital component of cryptocurrency security, especially Bitcoin. Without diving too deep into the mathematical underpinnings, we'll explain why it's the backbone of digital asset integrity.

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

Crucially, SHA-256 is a one-way function: you can generate a hash from input data, but you can't retrieve the original data from its hash. This feature is instrumental in safeguarding sensitive information like passwords, allowing only the hash to be stored. Even if a system breach occurs, the original password remains secure as hackers can't reverse-engineer it from the hash.

In the context of hashing, a "collision" occurs when two different inputs produce the same hash output. You might think such an occurrence would be rare given the vast number of possible hash values – 2^256 for SHA-256. However, the "birthday paradox" suggests that the chance of a collision becomes more likely than not after about 2^128 different messages have been hashed. But don't be alarmed – 2^128 is an astronomically large number, exceeding the estimated number of atoms in the observable universe.

If you enjoyed this Thunder Trading, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.