Stormrake - Insights #EU Tariffs

Bitcoin Hits Lowest Price Since November – Is the Bottom In?

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 14:08:16 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Bitcoin has had another volatile 24 hours but is starting to show signs of bullish life. The price briefly broke below $80K for the first time since mid-November, hitting a low of $78.2K—down almost 8% on the day. However, we’re waking up to Bitcoin at $84.4K, down just 0.41% on the day. A remarkable bounce during the US trading session saw altcoins also make stellar recoveries, with some even closing positive despite being down over 8% intraday.

Have We Seen the Bottom?

Bitcoin’s 7.5% bounce from its intraday low suggests that bulls are beginning to step in. If this marks the bottom of the correction, the long-term bullish structure remains intact. However, it’s best to wait and see how the next few days unfold. With next week being relatively free of major catalysts, the crypto market should be able to move naturally, without external pressures.

Solana's Impressive Rebound

Solana has certainly impressed. After being down nearly 9% at one point, it’s now up almost 7% on the day—a staggering 17% turnaround from its intraday low. Quite the reversal, especially considering the immense selling pressure Solana has faced over the past month due to the closure of the memecoin casino and the upcoming Solana unlock.

So, why has SOL recovered so strongly?

Back in January, we discussed the potential launch of new cryptocurrency products on CME futures—specifically XRP and SOL. A leak suggested they would launch on 10th February, though that date came and went without an official announcement. However, we’ve now received confirmation that CME Group is set to introduce Solana (SOL) futures, pending review, with trading expected to begin on 17th March. This makes SOL only the third cryptocurrency to receive a futures product from CME Group.

Political Tensions and Market Reactions

The ongoing political uncertainty has taken another dramatic turn. President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in the Oval Office, and the discussions were far from friendly. A live televised exchange gave the public a rare look into what these high-stakes conversations are like behind closed doors.

Tensions peaked as Trump and Vance clashed with Zelensky over the Ukraine conflict, culminating in Zelensky being ‘kicked out’ of the White House. One might expect such an event to dampen hopes of a resolution in Eastern Europe, but traditional markets reacted positively—the S&P 500 closed up 1.6% on the day.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.68)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/MUc67cZZ/

Now, this is a chart that makes me happy. You may see five consecutive red daily candles, but I see buying strength. Sonic (S) has already bounced over 10% from its intraday low.

The bullish order block highlighted a few days ago was tagged at the wick low and immediately bought up with strength, while the 21EMA held firm for the daily close. This demand is extremely positive for S and is likely to continue as long as Bitcoin maintains a bid.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/LTDD6t96/

Bitcoin’s V-shaped recovery has provided hope for bulls, with price reclaiming the key level of $81.6K and moving back above both the 21EMA and 55EMA.

However, BTC is now struggling at a critical resistance of $85.2K. If it fails to break this level, it will confirm a lower high, reinforcing the bearish structure and momentum.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 28 Feb: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Fu1Cb5U9/

Ethereum has also attempted somewhat of a V-shaped recovery, mirroring Bitcoin’s move. ETH has reclaimed the key level of $2,171 and the 21EMA, but it has yet to test the 55EMA, which will likely act as a strong resistance.

If ETH fails to break above the 55EMA, it will strengthen the bearish structure and momentum—just like Bitcoin.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 28 Feb: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

Mexico & Canada Tariffs Set to Go Live—Markets React Bearishly

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 12:45:26 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Trump continues to stand on business, and markets aren’t reacting well. The confirmation of tariffs going live—plus an additional 10% tariff on China—has only made things worse. With Canadian and Mexican tariffs set to go live on 4th March and China now facing a total 20% tariff.

And it’s not just Wall Street feeling the heat—US consumers are losing confidence fast. The latest data shows Consumer Confidence dropped 7 points in February, the biggest single-month decline since August 2021. That puts it at 98.3, dangerously close to its lowest level since 2022. On top of that, 67% of consumers now expect a recession within the next year—a 9-month high. The message is clear: people aren’t feeling great about the economy, and the uncertainty isn’t helping

All markets felt the effects of the overnight tariff confirmations, with Bitcoin dropping to a low of $82.6K before bouncing back. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fell 1.59%, Gold slid 1.34%, and the VIX (volatility index) surged 10%, marking its 7th straight green day. Fear is rising across the board, with Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index sitting at 16—in extreme fear territory.

Bitcoin ETFs have now seen six consecutive days of outflows, totalling $2.1 billion, with a record-breaking $1 billion withdrawn in a single day on 25th February—the largest single-day outflow on record. This reflects the uncertainty within the market, as the lack of ‘stability’ is pushing retail investors to cash out and rotate into ‘safer’ assets like gold.

SEC Drops Lawsuit Against Coinbase & Memecoins Get a Free Pass

The SEC has dropped its lawsuit against Coinbase, signalling a major shift in regulatory tone—a development that could be bullish for the industry. That’s not all—memecoins also dodged a bullet, as the SEC ruled they aren’t securities, stating that 'Meme coins typically have limited or no use or functionality.' While this decision aligns with previous regulatory stances, it still marks a significant moment for the crypto space.

While that might sound like a backhanded compliment, it’s actually a big deal. If memecoins aren’t securities, it sets a precedent that could benefit the broader altcoin market.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.69)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/88dAlSOi/

Sonic has now closed its fourth consecutive red candle and is approaching the 21EMA, which has provided support multiple times already—first at $0.50 and more recently over the past few days. Each time, S has wicked down to this level before bouncing, showing that buyers are stepping in.

This should provide a strong support zone, making it a potential buy-the-dip opportunity. If Bitcoin holds its ground and doesn’t drop further, Sonic could find a base at this moving average, bounce, and maintain its bullish structure.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/iEflTe7A/

Bitcoin continues to struggle for momentum, with any bullish attempt quickly met with strong selling pressure—largely due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs. BTC briefly reclaimed the 21EMA overnight but failed to hold, falling back below it.

There is some bullish hopium, though—last night’s low created the first higher low. If BTC can break above both the 21EMA and 55EMA and push past $87.1K, the bullish structure will shift back in favour of the bulls.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 27 Feb: $ -20.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/hwbBPD0i/

Ethereum continues to struggle after failing to break above the CPR level, forming lower highs and lower lows—not what any ETH holder wants to see. The 21EMA remains a major resistance and will continue to be a challenge until ETH can break above it.

For now, ETH seems likely to continue falling toward key support at $2,171 unless a significant reversal takes place.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 27 Feb: $ -19.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

More Tariffs, More Pain: Bitcoin Slides Lower

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 12:35:59 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

We started the month with trade wars brewing between the United States and Canada, Mexico, and China. Now, as February comes to a close, Trump has extended tariffs to Europe, announcing 25% tariffs on the region.

Just as we saw at the beginning of the month, markets reacted sharply. Within the first hour, the S&P 500 fell 0.78%, wiping over $500 billion in market cap, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.94% and Bitcoin over 3%. Bitcoin officially closed the day down 5%, hitting an intraday low of $82,250—its lowest price since 11 November. That marks four consecutive red days, hardly the way most envisioned closing out February.

New Tariffs by the United States:

25% tariffs on Canada
25% tariffs on Mexico
25% tariffs on the EU
10% tariffs on China
(Potential) 100% tariffs on BRICS

These tariffs have now caused US inflation expectations to nearly double, rising from ~2.7% to ~4.3% this year. The anticipated rate cuts in 2025 may not materialise if inflation continues climbing, which is not a great sign for risk-on assets.

Trump’s victory gave markets a pump, and now his tariffs are delivering the dump—or are they buying opportunities? The answer is both. The market is correcting due to the tariffs, but in doing so, it's presenting strong discounts across the board. From Bitcoin to altcoins, these pullbacks could yield significant gains for those who buy while the market is in extreme fear.

As Warren Buffett famously said, “Be greedy when others are fearful.” Right now, fear is at extreme levels, with the Fear & Greed Index at 10—its lowest reading since July 2022, when the Luna collapse sent Bitcoin below $20k. The key difference? Back then, Bitcoin was under $20k, and today it’s still above $80k—a strong sign of Bitcoin’s resilience and current strength.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.72)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/RRRJj6A5/

Despite closing red yesterday, Sonic (S) outperformed Bitcoin over the past 24 hours, declining at a slower rate. While S has now seen four consecutive red days, its bullish structure remains intact.

As long as S holds above the bottom of the highlighted bullish order block (OB), its bullish trend remains valid. Even if S retests this OB, strong buying demand within that zone should trigger a bounce.

Moreover, on-chain metrics for Sonic continue to outperform nearly every other blockchain, further strengthening its bullish case.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6tMlLpAZ/

Bitcoin is extremely bearish on lower timeframes, with little support between current prices and the high $70k region. The lack of support is due to BTC’s rapid ascent in November, following Trump’s election victory.

For Bitcoin to reduce the risk of breaking its long-term bullish structure, it must hold key support levels. The first sign of recovery would be reclaiming $85.2k, which would revive bullish sentiment.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 26 Feb: $ -162.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JP2t985X/

Ethereum’s attempt to reclaim the CPR level failed, as it was rejected at the confluence of that level and the 21EMA. Now trading lower, ETH looks set to retest key support at $2,171.

With bears in full control, ETH’s momentum and structure remain bearish. To regain bullish footing, BTC must first recover, as Ethereum’s movements remain closely tied to Bitcoin’s direction.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 26 Feb: $ -6.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.