Stormrake - Insights #FOMC

Powell’s Pause: Wait-and-See Mode Activated

Thu, 08 May 2025 12:20:16 +1000

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As anticipated, there was no rate hike overnight. Powell delivered his presser, yet markets remained steady and largely neutral. It may as well have been a non-event. Slightly hawkish, Powell remained conservative in his tone, with the core message centred around patience and a ‘wait and see’ approach.

The main takeaways from today’s decision and Powell’s presser are as follows:

Powell’s messaging offered little new, instead reinforcing a cautious stance that underscores the Fed’s current predicament. While the US economy remains healthy on the surface, he highlighted rising risks of both higher unemployment and inflation, even though these have yet to materialise in the data. The looming threat of tariffs—particularly tied to Trump’s trade manoeuvres—was a consistent theme, with Powell making it clear that external policy shocks could sharply alter the Fed’s path. Uncertainty dominates the outlook, and ‘wait and see’ has emerged as the defining narrative. Flexibility will be key, especially with stagflation risks beginning to simmer.

The next rate decision lands on 18 June, and markets are currently pricing in an 80% probability of no rate cut once again. Attention is shifting to the 30 July meeting, where expectations for a rate cut are growing. As of now, there’s only a 30.4% chance that the Fed holds steady again.

Bitcoin Update:

Bitcoin remained resilient overnight, holding its bullish structure and momentum, now sitting above $98K and closing in on the $100K milestone. Yet sentiment remains surprisingly cautious, with most retail still on the sidelines. It’s a stark contrast to the last time Bitcoin was here—euphoria dominated, retail was flooding in. But this time, Trump’s tariff drama has dampened broader investor sentiment. Bitcoin, however, doesn’t seem fazed. Just over 10% away from its all-time high, it’s only a matter of time before retail wakes up to Bitcoin’s strength—by then, it may already be printing new highs. Don’t sit on your hands. Get allocated.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($377)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/n0jnHWmO/

TAO is holding steady, trading around the same levels noted in yesterday’s morning note. In the past 24 hours, it retested the top of its consolidation range at $390 but failed to break above it, reinforcing that zone as a strong resistance. Still, TAO remains bullish and continues to coil beneath resistance. With strong bullish momentum across the crypto space, it should only be a matter of time before TAO breaks out and moves higher.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6fh6igbu/

Bitcoin sits right at $98K, continuing its steady march toward $100K. The 21EMA has acted as reliable support on pullbacks, confirming that bulls remain in control. BTC is currently testing a resistance band between $98K–$99K, an area with considerable sell pressure. However, given the strength of momentum, bulls are likely to push through and send price into six figures.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 7 May: $ + 105.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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Bitcoin Leaves Altcoins in the Dust

Wed, 07 May 2025 10:58:18 +1000

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In a sea of red across the crypto market, one asset continues to shine: Bitcoin. As we edge closer to Jerome Powell’s press conference and the upcoming interest rate decision, the broader market shows signs of apprehension. Bitcoin has been resilient, climbing higher while most altcoins continue to decline. Over in traditional markets, the Nasdaq slipped 0.77%, while Gold surged another 2.91%, marking two consecutive sessions of nearly 3% moves.

The price action paints a clear picture: investors are risk-off ahead of what’s expected to be a volatile FOMC announcement. Despite near-unanimous expectations that there will be no interest rate change, nerves remain high. For those tracking it closely, the interest rate decision is set for 4am AEST, with Powell’s press conference following at 4:30am. My advice? Get your rest. Don’t lose sleep over what Powell might say—tomorrow’s Morning Note will cover everything you need to know, including Bitcoin’s reaction.

BREAKING: Bitcoin Surges on US-China Trade Headlines

In a dramatic twist, news just in confirms that US Treasury Secretary Bessent will meet with China’s top economic official this week. The market's reaction was immediate: Bitcoin broke out, rallying over 2% within an hour, reigniting the road to $100k. S&P 500 futures jumped nearly 1%, while gold plunged 1.5%, completely reversing the cautious overnight price action.

This kind of volatility just before the FOMC is a recipe for chaos. While the surge in risk assets is encouraging, it's important to remain cautious. The rally is still fundamentally tariff-driven, and if the Bessent-China meeting yields no progress, the market could easily reverse. Until then, it's all speculation—stick to the facts when making decisions.

Bitcoin Dominance: Silent Strength, Loud Signal

While some may think Bitcoin has merely been consolidating or correcting, the dominance chart tells a different story. Bitcoin has quietly notched nine straight weeks of dominance growth, now sitting above 65%—a level not seen since January 2021. That period, of course, preceded one of the most explosive altseasons we’ve seen.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. With dominance this high, investors clearly aren't positioning for altseason yet. Macro uncertainty has them rotating into Bitcoin for safety, and there’s little sign of that trend reversing in the near term.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($374)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6yLqaYX1/

TAO showed impressive resilience over the past 24 hours. After falling over 6% intraday, it rebounded following the US-China news, reclaiming the 200 EMA and testing the key resistance at $380, which we’ve flagged repeatedly in recent notes. This level continues to be a hurdle, but today’s rebound is a strong signal.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/r6UwWLRy/

Bitcoin is in breakout mode. Boosted by the trade meeting news, BTC surged past all major moving averages, breaching $95.7k resistance with conviction. This followed a textbook bounce off $93.5k support, marking the third such rebound in four days.

Momentum and structure are now firmly back in the bulls' control, with eyes firmly on $100k. However, keep an eye on the $98k–$99k resistance zone, where sellers are likely to mount a defense.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 6 May: $ - 122.4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Make Hollywood Great Again? Tariff Drama Adds to Market Tension

Tue, 06 May 2025 11:38:54 +1000

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Bitcoin and the S&P 500 remain relatively flat, each moving less than 1% from the open—Bitcoin edging slightly higher, while the S&P 500 trades marginally lower. Meanwhile, gold has snapped a two-week downtrend, rallying strongly and setting its sights once again on all-time highs.

Despite the muted movement in risk assets, markets remain gripped by uncertainty as we count down to Powell’s upcoming presser. The volatility index (VIX) has returned to its prior consolidation range—calm on the surface, but clearly in wait mode. The flow of capital paints a clear picture: risk-off assets are seeing renewed interest. Gold surges, Bitcoin ticks up, and traditional equities lag—markets are preparing for potential fireworks.

Tariff Turmoil: Mixed Signals from Washington

Tariff developments continue to generate confusion and fear. Following yesterday’s announcement that Trump intends to impose 100% tariffs on non-U.S. film imports—part of his effort to “Make Hollywood Great Again”—the White House today walked back the certainty of those measures, stating they are not yet confirmed. This mixed messaging only fuels further market hesitation.

Adding to the friction, the U.S. has rejected Japan’s request for a full exemption from its new “reciprocal” tariff regime, reinforcing a protectionist tone that’s clearly unsettling global investors.

What’s Next: Calm Before the Storm?

We can likely expect continued slow price action and consolidation in the lead-up to Powell’s press conference. But make no mistake—volatility is coming. The presser could very well dictate the next directional move across asset classes.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($374)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/5iTy2xjY/

While the broader crypto market drifts, TAO stood out, rallying 9% on the day and returning to a confluence of previous highs around $380. This level has now rejected price action three times in the past 10 days. Expect continued resistance here, but a break above could open the door toward $440—the next CPR target.

Should TAO fail to break through, a pullback to one of the identified support levels on the chart is likely.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/sz9GlZS4/

Bitcoin has reentered its consolidation range after last week’s failed breakout. Now wedged between key moving averages, BTC leans bearish, with the 55EMA still above the 21EMA.

A key level to watch is the $93.5K support—the closing price from 2024—which has held firm, producing two intraday bounces over the past 48 hours.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 5 May: $ - 105.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Another Giant Enters the Memecoin Arena

Fri, 14 Feb 2025 12:21:37 +1100

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Whilst the rest of the market showed some positive returns, with Bitcoin trending upwards, one coin truly stood out, outshining everything else: CAKE.

For those unfamiliar, CAKE, or PancakeSwap, is the primary decentralised exchange on the Binance Smart Chain (BSC) network. Think of it as Uniswap for Ethereum or Raydium for Solana.

In 2021, BSC was second only to Ethereum in terms of total value locked (TVL). However, it set a record for the highest single-day trading volume across any chain, hitting $13 billion, surpassing Ethereum. That same year, CAKE reached an all-time high of $43.96. Fast forward to today, and despite yesterday’s 60% rally, CAKE remains down 94% from its peak.

BSC’s Struggles & New Competition

Since 2021, BSC has struggled to regain its former dominance, despite BNB hitting a new all-time high. The rise of alternative chains such as Solana, Sui, Hyperliquid, Base, and Arbitrum has divided market liquidity, with Solana now commanding a significant share of what BSC once held.

Then there’s Changpeng Zhao (CZ)—one of the most influential figures in crypto. While he is no longer Binance’s CEO or involved in its decision-making, it’s safe to assume he still holds some level of influence or insider knowledge.

The CZ Effect: Memecoins Take Over BNB Chain

CAKE’s sudden spike can be traced to a series of posts by CZ on X (Twitter). First, he hinted that the BNB Chain would start integrating memecoins, prompting speculative investors to bridge funds over and trade newly created memecoins on PancakeSwap.

Then came the highly anticipated post—a picture of CZ’s dog, ‘Broccoli’. Within seconds, multiple Broccoli-themed memecoins were created, leading to an explosive trend. As a result, Broccoli memecoins now dominate the top 11 trending tokens on Dexscreener.

Memecoins: A Liquidity Drain for Altcoins?

The growing memecoin mania on BSC introduces another player into the ever-expanding memecoin sector. However, this comes at a cost.

Unlike traditional crypto projects, memecoins don’t retain liquidity—they serve as short-term speculative gambling opportunities. This capital rotation drains liquidity from other altcoins, making it harder for them to sustain rallies. This is also one of the key reasons why Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, while most altcoins struggle to gain momentum.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ondo Finance (ONDO) ($1.33)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/WAKJT7LX/

Ondo has given up its previous day’s gains, falling 5% back into the top of the accumulation zone. ONDO remains range-bound, following Bitcoin’s sideways consolidation. Until Bitcoin breaks out, Ondo is likely to trade just above this accumulation zone.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/hYGslsVN/

Bitcoin has once again bounced off the key support at $95.7K. BTC is attempting to reclaim bullish momentum by trading back above all major moving averages. If BTC breaks above the recent lower high of $98.1K, the bulls will regain control.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 13 Feb: $ - 31.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/evkmldRv/

Ethereum maintains a bullish structure after setting a higher low overnight, but it remains under key moving averages. For ETH to continue this momentum, it needs to break above $2,795, setting up an attempt at the next resistance level of $2,865.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 13 Feb: $ - 3.8 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Markets Rally Against the Odds as Inflation Heats Up

Thu, 13 Feb 2025 12:03:52 +1100

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It was that time of the month again—when all eyes were on inflation data, with CPI readings being released. The forecasted numbers were a mixed bag: Core CPI was projected to increase, headline CPI was expected to decrease, and CPI YoY was anticipated to remain unchanged.

Source:https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar

The actual data caught everyone off guard, with every key reading rising. Both core and headline CPI increased MoM, pushing YoY inflation higher as well. Core CPI MoM came in at 0.2%, beating the 0.1% projection, while headline CPI MoM unexpectedly rose by 0.1% instead of the anticipated 0.1% decline. As a result, headline CPI YoY climbed to 3%—up 0.1% rather than holding steady as expected. This is a step in the wrong direction for the U.S. Federal Reserve, which remains committed to its 2% inflation target.

With inflation rising, one would expect prices of risk-on assets to fall—and they did, initially. Within the first 15 minutes of the data release, Bitcoin dropped 2.5% to a low of $94k, with altcoins shedding over 4% in the same period. Traditional markets reacted similarly, as Nasdaq futures fell 1.26% on the news. When the Nasdaq and S&P 500 opened an hour later, they dropped 0.55% and 0.73%, respectively. However, that brief sell-off was all the bears could muster—a sharp 15-minute correction following what would usually be perceived as extremely bearish news.

From that low, Bitcoin has rebounded 4%, now trading higher than it was before the data release. The same can be said for most altcoins, with a sea of green across the board.

This inflation data signals a strengthening economy and now suggests we may only see one rate cut this year—perhaps two if we’re lucky—with the first anticipated in September.

January’s unexpectedly strong U.S. inflation reignited investor fears that a heating economy, combined with looming tariffs, could put the Federal Reserve in a tough position. Hopes for multiple rate cuts are fading. With consumer prices rising more than expected, the Fed is unlikely to rush into easing monetary policy, especially as economic uncertainty grows amid the expected inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on key trade partners.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ondo Finance (ONDO) ($1.40)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZnAYbRBc/

Ondo closed the day with a strong green candle, bouncing off the accumulation zone with a 5% gain. If it can reach $1.47, we’ll see a bullish cross of the 21 and 55 EMA, strengthening bullish momentum and potentially pushing ONDO higher toward the lower high of $1.64.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bAvlUoqm/

Another day, another failed attempt to break below the key support of $95.7k. Bitcoin has since rallied over 4% from this level, reclaiming all major moving averages in the process. With this newfound bullish momentum, BTC has a chance to flip structure back in favour of the bulls—if it can break above the previous high of $98.4k. A sustained breakout should see BTC retest $100k.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 12 Feb: $ - 113.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/nSjM6hZv/

Ethereum has once again bounced off the key support of $2,556, finally breaking above all major moving averages and flipping both momentum and structure back to the bulls. With a higher low and higher high in place, ETH now looks primed to retest the key resistance level of $2,865.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 12 Feb: $ - 30.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Powell Speaks, Bitcoin Drops—All Eyes on CPI Data

Wed, 12 Feb 2025 12:56:24 +1100

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The first key event of the week has occurred—Jerome Powell spoke this morning, reiterating that the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates, citing ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and trade wars. Similarly to what I mentioned a few days ago, investors are becoming more immune to tariff-related headlines, and Powell echoed this sentiment today.

Donald Trump has already stated he would not introduce a CBDC if re-elected, and Powell was asked the same question. His response? A firm no. Powell agreed that as long as he remains chair, the Federal Reserve will not create a central bank digital currency.

Although Powell’s speech had little impact on traditional markets, Bitcoin and the crypto market reacted sharply, with BTC dropping 4% and altcoins falling even further shortly after his remarks.

Next, we shift focus to the upcoming CPI data release, the next major event of the week. Core CPI is forecasted to rise by 0.1% from last month, while headline CPI is expected to decline by 0.1%—leaving YoY inflation unchanged. With what could be a mixed bag of results dropping at 12:30 AM AEST, the recent risk-off sentiment in crypto makes more sense.

Despite this, Bitcoin continues to hold key support at $95.7K. If CPI prints higher than expected, BTC could drop further and retest $90K, dragging altcoins down with it. However, a weaker-than-expected CPI would suggest cooling inflation, which could trigger a relief rally in crypto markets.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ondo Finance (ONDO) ($1.34)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/sGkJpdXt/

Ondo is continuing to hold the top of its accumulation range, building a stronger base around $1.34. Yesterday, ONDO rallied 8% to $1.44 before retracing along with the rest of the market.

While still consolidating, the blue CPR levels are acting as magnets, keeping price within the $1.36 - $1.44 range. The trend remains sideways, but once ONDO flips the 21 and 55 EMAs, we can expect a move back toward the recent lower high of $1.64.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/H9aWwxsa/

Bitcoin was set to retest $100K, but Powell’s speech halted momentum, triggering a reversal that led BTC to retest $95.7K. This overnight pullback has shifted momentum back to the bears—if BTC fails to hold this key level, the next stop is likely $92.5K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 11 Feb: $ - 27.4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/NJbAjlDX/

Ethereum followed Bitcoin’s drop overnight, failing to break the 200 EMA—as expected, it proved to be a strong resistance level. ETH has since fallen below all moving averages, briefly wicking down to $2,556. This is a must-hold level—a break below could lead to a retest of $2,500.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 11 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 12:11:08 +1100

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For the last two months, Bitcoin has been trading within a broad range of $90K–$110K. During this time, we’ve seen multiple all-time highs alongside some of the largest mass liquidation events in crypto history. Despite several major catalysts shaking the market, none have been strong enough to break either side of the range. With pullbacks and rallies nearing 20%, there has been no decisive breakout or breakdown.

From bullish catalysts such as pro-crypto executive orders, Gary Gensler stepping down as SEC Chair, the formation of a new pro-crypto task force within the SEC, and increasing discussions of digital asset reserves, to bearish catalysts like the US DOJ preparing to sell $6 billion worth of seized Bitcoin, DeepSeek AI threats, and ongoing tariff and trade wars, the market has remained in a tug-of-war.

This period of price action is quite reminiscent of Bitcoin’s movements last year. Cast your mind back to March 2024—we had just seen a new all-time high, the first time Bitcoin had set a new all time high before a halving event. Between March and November, Bitcoin traded within an even wider range of $50K–$74K for eight months. Throughout this time, various bullish and bearish catalysts pushed the price in both directions.

On the bearish side, Bitcoin saw major sell-offs from the German Government and US DOJ unloading seized BTC, as well as the yen carry trade unwind, which triggered a 30% correction. Meanwhile, bullish catalysts included the first "Trump Pump" following the initial assassination attempt, which sent Bitcoin nearly 30% higher back to the range highs. Bitcoin swung 30% within the range, dominance remained in the mid-50% region, and altcoins experienced even more volatile movements. Those who accumulated Bitcoin during this consolidation phase saw incredible returns, with buyers at the bottom of the range up over 100%, and those buying at the top still up nearly 50% when Bitcoin hit all-time highs just last month.

That consolidation period ended with a major breakout to the upside, driven by Trump’s election victory, which saw Bitcoin rally over 60% in the following six weeks.

Now, we are once again waiting for a major catalyst to give Bitcoin the push it needs to break out of the range and continue higher. The one on everyone’s mind is the possibility of the US Government buying Bitcoin with its reserves. Trump’s election victory saw a 60% rally—so imagine what this potential catalyst could do. Bitcoin $200K?

Stormrake Spotlight: Ondo Finance (ONDO) ($1.33)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/j8nKIQ6l/

Whilst Bitcoin remains in a prolonged consolidation phase, it should be at the top of your priority list and make up most of your new allocation. However, for those looking to take on more risk in altcoins, Ondo Finance (ONDO) stands out as one of the strongest selections.

Not only is it backed by some of the largest institutions in the space, but it has remained technically strong throughout the past two months of uncertainty in the broader market. Ondo has begun forming a solid base and an accumulation zone around its current price.

Accumulating within this zone could provide attractive returns if the market turns bullish again and the bull run resumes. If altseason does arrive, Ondo is positioned to be at the forefront.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/dh4quBGC/

Following yesterday’s bounce off the key support level of $95.7K, Bitcoin has regained bullish momentum and is now attempting to clear the final 200 EMA hurdle once again, after failing to do so overnight.

If Bitcoin successfully flips this level, the probability of reclaiming $100K increases. A failure, however, could see BTC revisit support levels once more.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 Feb: $ - 66.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/K0LcnZA8/

Ethereum is following a similar trajectory to Bitcoin, having bounced off key support at $2,556 and regained bullish momentum. However, ETH faces two major hurdles before it can attempt to approach the previous lower high of $2,800 or the key level of $2,865.

Both 200-day moving averages (EMA & SMA) present resistance. While Bitcoin has already cleared the SMA and is now challenging the EMA, Ethereum has yet to reach this test.

A rejection at either moving average could send ETH back to support, whereas a successful break would likely see ETH move toward $2,800.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 10 Feb: $ - 22.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Tariffs Trigger Volatility—Bitcoin Bounces Back Stronger

Mon, 10 Feb 2025 12:59:49 +1100

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Now, this is exactly what I meant when I said the political landscape is so uncertain. Just two days ago, I wrote that the crypto market would be able to trade freely, with no major catalysts set to affect it until later next week. Yet here we are—Donald Trump has announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs, starting with multiple countries next week. This comes less than a week after trade tensions between the US and Canada and Mexico were put on pause. The timing has caught most by surprise, including the markets.

Bitcoin briefly traded back above $100K, but as soon as the announcement came out, BTC lost almost 3% within the first 30 minutes. Now, just seven hours later, it’s down 4.5% from the overnight high. As expected, altcoins have continued to struggle, extending the trend we’ve seen over the last few months. Bitcoin dominance is back above 62%, highlighting its strength within the market and reaffirming its status as the ‘safe haven’ of the industry.

We’re in a period of great uncertainty in both political and economic landscapes, meaning unexpected events will continue to shake up the crypto markets—both positively and negatively. During times like these, the main focus should be accumulating Bitcoin. Think back to last year: we spent six months consolidating between $50K–$75K before Trump’s election victory acted as a catalyst to break out. Could we be in for a similar consolidation now? Bitcoin has already established a range between $90K–$110K… Only time will tell. In the meantime, the priority should be buying Bitcoin.

Wednesday February 12: Jerome Powell Speaks
- Arguably the most influential figure in the markets aside from Donald Trump. His tone and comments will drive market sentiment.
Thursday February 13: CPI data
- One of the most crucial inflation indicators. If CPI shows inflation is under control, risk-on assets could rally. However, a higher-than-expected reading would likely have a bearish impact on markets.
Tuesday February 18: Reserve Bank Australia Interest rate decision
- Markets anticipate the RBA to cut interest rates, though this is unlikely to impact crypto markets significantly.
Tuesday February 18: FTX Repayments begin
- FTX is set to begin repaying an estimated $6.5B–$7B, with funds reaching sub-$50K claim holders first.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ondo Finance (ONDO) ($1.34)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/BpkSXmxY/

Ondo Finance returns to the Stormrake Spotlight as one of the best-backed crypto assets by traditional institutions. It is a leading Real-World Asset (RWA) project and has secured major partnerships, including BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. Ondo has also partnered with Ripple to launch tokenised assets on the XRP Ledger. Additionally, World Liberty Financial has begun accumulating ONDO.

Despite broader market weakness, Ondo has demonstrated remarkable strength, a highly bullish sign. Strength during periods of market uncertainty often indicates that a project will outperform when the market turns bullish.

Currently, ONDO is down 38% from its December all-time high (ATH), trading at $1.34, where clear support is forming. This level presents a compelling accumulation opportunity, especially given that some of the most influential players in the space are backing the asset.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/A1jF930q/

Bitcoin has recovered strongly since the tariff announcement and is now up 2.5% from the low. As expected, BTC bounced off the bottom of its range. If Bitcoin can sustain this momentum and break above key moving averages, it will flip market sentiment back to the bulls and could trigger a retest of $100K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 9 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/yntzRn8I/

Ethereum is mirroring Bitcoin’s price action, bouncing off the bottom of its range. ETH is on the verge of breaking above the 21 and 55 EMAs, a move that could ignite a rally towards the top of the range and shift momentum back to the bulls.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 9 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Hit by Fresh Trade War Uncertainty

Mon, 10 Feb 2025 12:35:41 +1100

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Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($2,575)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ilCowaf8/

Ethereum remains undervalued within the crypto space, but the uncertainty and lack of confidence in altcoins continue to hold it back. Until this broader sentiment shifts, ETH is likely to remain under pressure. The next key support level is $2,484 (CPR level)…

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/NOHpHykW/

Bitcoin was flat-out rejected at the critical $100K level overnight and has since fallen through all major moving averages, now sitting on key support at $95.7K. Momentum and structure remain in favour of the bears—if this level fails, BTC is likely to drop further to $92.5K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 7 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/VFtWYMGv/

Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s price action, currently trading at a key support level. Momentum and structure remain in control of the bears, and we can expect the red CPR level at $2,484 to act as additional support.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 7 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Why Bitcoin Remains the Ultimate Investment Choice

Fri, 07 Feb 2025 12:50:28 +1100

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This bull cycle has been markedly different from previous ones. Historically, altcoins have tended to follow Bitcoin’s lead, rallying alongside it. However, this time around, Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from the rest of the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin has set multiple all-time highs (ATHs) during this run, yet the majority of altcoins remain significantly behind—many still 70% below their ATHs from the 2021 bull market.

The image below highlights the ongoing struggle of altcoins across major sectors within the cryptocurrency space (data as of February 5, sourced from @MilesDeutscheron X).

Source:https://x.com/milesdeutscher/status/1887086277872521660

Notably, only two coins on this list—Mantra (OM) and, of course, Bitcoin—are within 10% of their ATHs. Our primary focus remains on Bitcoin. We have consistently advocated for holding Bitcoin as the majority allocation in a portfolio, and for good reason.

While altcoins can and do outperform Bitcoin at times, these periods of outperformance tend to be short-lived. Over the past three months, we’ve seen memecoins dominate, with BONK, PEPE, MOG, PENGU, SPX6900, and several others hitting new ATHs. However, many of them have since dropped over 80% from those highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—despite experiencing multiple ATHs in the same period—has only retraced by around 10%.

Major Altcoin Struggles

Let’s examine two of the biggest altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), ranked second and fifth by market cap, respectively.

Solana set several new ATHs this cycle but has already retraced over 30% from its peak, which was reached less than three weeks ago. Ethereum, on the other hand, has struggled even more—not only lagging behind Bitcoin, but also failing to keep pace with Solana and Ripple. ETH remains 44% below its 2021 ATH of $4.9k.

A 30–40% drawdown might not seem catastrophic at first glance, but let’s consider the data in the table below:

This table illustrates the percentage gain required to recover from a given drawdown. For example, Solana now requires a 43% increase just to return to its ATH, while Ethereum needs 67%. As the drawdown deepens, the recovery percentage required grows exponentially.

Why Does This Matter?

Bitcoin is the only consistent long-term performer. Unlike altcoins, which experience short-lived pumps and deep drawdowns, Bitcoin has repeatedly proven itself as a resilient and appreciating asset over time.
Institutional adoption is reshaping the market. With ETFs and major financial institutions allocating capital, Bitcoin is attracting unprecedented inflows—while altcoins remain largely speculative and underfunded in comparison.
Deep drawdowns require exponential recoveries. The lower an asset falls, the harder it is to reclaim previous highs. A 70% drop means a required 233% gain, while a 90% crash demands a near 900% rally—an unlikely feat for most projects.
Bitcoin should be the foundation of any serious portfolio. While altcoins can offer short-term trading opportunities—where profits are best rotated into Bitcoin—BTC remains the most reliable asset for long-term wealth preservation and growth.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ethereum (ETH) ($2,688)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/T7og6B7A/

Ethereum is currently trading around the key support level. If ETH can establish a base here—where major players appear to be accumulating—it could help restore confidence among retail investors.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/o7SijMlX/

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin attempted to break above its range, reaching a high of $99k, but was rejected at a critical CPR pivot level. This led to a pullback, with BTC retesting the lower range at $95.7k before bouncing. Should this level fail to hold, a further decline toward $92.5k is possible.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 6 Feb: $ - 37.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/430xN5vN/

Ethereum recently retested the key level of $2,865 but failed to break above it for the second time in recent days. Since then, ETH has dropped below both the 21 EMA and 55 EMA, flipping momentum in favour of the bears. If bearish pressure continues, we could see ETH test the next major support at $2,556.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 6 Feb: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.