Stormrake - Insights #Grayscale

Sonic: The Comeback Layer 1?

Fri, 04 Jul 2025 17:48:29 +1000

The Story

If you’ve been following crypto for a few years, you might remember Fantom (FTM). Back in 2020 during the “DeFi summer,” Fantom stood out as a blockchain designed to run smart contracts quickly and cheaply — a big advantage at the time, since Ethereum was struggling with high fees and slower speeds.

At its peak in 2021, Fantom attracted almost $8 billion in value locked on its network, putting it in the same league as blockchains like Solana, Polygon, Avalanche and Binance Smart Chain. Fantom’s price reached $3.46, giving it a market cap of $8.4 billion and putting it inside the top 30 crypto projects — bigger than Tron, Bitcoin Cash and Stellar back then.

But after that boom came the bust. When the crypto market cooled off in late 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin fell almost 80%, and most altcoins dropped by 95% or more. Fantom was one of them, falling to just $0.16. On top of the market downturn, Fantom lost its most well-known figure, Andre Cronje, who is often called the “Godfather of DeFi.” His early exit shook confidence in the project. Cronje is known for building Yearn.Finance, which went from a market cap of $2 million to $3 billion in under a year, so his departure had a big impact.

Eventually, Cronje came back with a plan to upgrade Fantom and keep it competitive. This led to Sonic, the new version of the chain.

By December 2024, the upgrade was live. Fantom’s price had recovered to $1.45 — up over 800% from its lows. However, since the switch, Sonic has struggled to hold that momentum and today trades around $0.33. The big question now is whether Sonic can find its spark again and return as a leading blockchain for decentralised finance.

What’s Happening Under the Surface

So, what’s really going on with Sonic? On the one hand, there’s a lot of positive activity. Developers from Fantom have moved over, and builders from other chains like Solana and Ethereum are now building on Sonic too. Andre Cronje’s vision was always to make a blockchain that’s fast, affordable and friendly for developers, and that part seems to be working.

When Sonic first launched, things got off to a rough start. Some big crypto exchanges described the upgrade as a “delisting” instead of explaining it as a planned migration. This confused everyday investors and created fear, which led to a big sell-off just as Sonic was starting out.

Despite that, the network grew quickly. Sonic’s total value locked (TVL) jumped from zero to over $700 million within a few months, even beating well-known chains like Sui and Avalanche in certain areas. By May, Sonic’s TVL was over $1 billion, putting it ahead of Polygon at the time. But the price did not follow. While other blockchains held their market value or grew, Sonic’s token stayed under pressure.

A big reason for this was the end of Sonic’s long-term relationship with Wintermute, a major market maker that helps provide trading liquidity. After this five-year partnership ended, Wintermute began selling millions of Sonic tokens. This added huge selling pressure and dragged the price down to around $0.30.

Source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/wintermute

Interestingly, Wintermute and other big holders have since started buying Sonic tokens again. This helped the price bounce back slightly. On top of that, Sonic did something Fantom never managed to do: secure a listing on Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the US. This is a big deal because it means better access for investors and potentially more trading volume.

Another positive development is Sonic’s new airdrop. The team launched a 200 million token airdrop to reward users for holding and using the network. Unlike many crypto airdrops, Sonic’s is designed to discourage people from immediately selling their free tokens. If you want to claim your tokens early, you lose a big chunk of the reward. The nine-month vesting period encourages users to stick around and stay active. Future airdrop rewards will also depend on how much you actually use Sonic’s apps, not just holding the token passively. You can read more about how the airdrop works here.

One thing many overlook is just how fast Sonic really is. Its blockchain can handle up to 400,000 transactions per second (TPS), which is huge when you compare it to other blockchains and even traditional payment systems.

For context, Sui handles about 297,000 TPS, Solana around 65,000 TPS, Arbitrum about 40,000 TPS, and Avalanche only about 4,500 TPS. Even Visa and Mastercard process far less, with around 24,000 TPS and 5,000 TPS respectively. When you see how fast Sonic is — yet its value and locked funds are still smaller than slower blockchains — it shows there could be more potential if this technology is fully put to use.

Where Sonic Stands

When looking at Sonic’s price chart, it helps to include Fantom’s older price history to get the full picture. Over the past five years, Fantom has seen major ups and downs that help explain where Sonic stands today.

After the Covid market crash, Fantom took off during the 2020 DeFi boom. In 2021, it hit an all-time high of $3.48. Then the crypto winter hit, sending the price down by about 95%. In early 2024, Fantom found its footing again, bouncing alongside Bitcoin before dipping once more near its cycle lows. This pullback lined up with a key long-term trendline that has acted as strong support for years.

That trendline, combined with a bullish signal called an engulfing candle, helped trigger a huge 500% rally over six months. After that, Fantom’s price moved mostly sideways through mid-2024, then rallied again during the US election period, setting up the switch from Fantom to Sonic. That rally marked Sonic’s current cycle high.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/LYpGmfrx/

Since the migration, Sonic’s price action has not been great. Apart from a brief bounce, it’s mostly been drifting lower. Many Sonic charts do not include the earlier Fantom price data, but this old data shows where important support levels still exist. Without it, the chart can look like Sonic has no real floor.

At today’s levels, Sonic’s price is still down about 90% from its 2021 high. For long-term holders, it has been frustrating to watch other coins set new highs while Sonic struggles. Part of this has been Sonic’s own challenges, but broader market factors like global tensions and economic uncertainty have made things harder too.

The good news is that some signals now look more positive. Sonic has once again bounced from that key trendline, which has held for four years. Another potential bullish engulfing candle has appeared, which can suggest a turnaround if it holds. This same pattern led to a big rally in 2023. With Bitcoin staying strong and some macro worries easing, Sonic may have the setup to improve in the second half of the year.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but traders watching Sonic see levels like $1 or $1.50 as areas that could be revisited if the crypto market keeps moving higher. A return to its all-time high at $3.48 would need nearly everything to go right, but even getting halfway there would be a major comeback.

What to Watch Next

Sonic’s story has been a rollercoaster. From huge gains to massive losses, and now a slow rebuild. The big reasons it struggled — from poor communication to unexpected big sell-offs — seem to have been addressed. On-chain activity remains strong, developers are building, and the new airdrop system encourages users to stick around and actually use the network.

Combined with its impressive transaction speed, Coinbase listing and key players buying in again, Sonic has a mix of factors that could help it turn the corner. This is not financial advice, but for everyday investors, it’s one to keep on the watchlist if you’re interested in blockchains with strong communities and lots of development.

Patience and good research are key, as always. The next six to twelve months will show whether Sonic can tap into its full potential and reclaim its place among the top projects in decentralised finance.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

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Australia’s 2025–26 Federal Budget: Strengthening the Case for Bitcoin in SMSFs

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 15:40:09 +1100

The Australian government’s latest budget signals a deepening shift in how private wealth—particularly superannuation—is managed and taxed. For investors, this is more than just a policy update; it is a clear warning that long-term financial autonomy is increasingly at risk.

Superannuation: From Retirement Security to Government Revenue Source

Australia’s superannuation system was introduced on 1 July 1992, with the intention of providing workers with a stable, long-term retirement savings framework. However, despite early assurances that superannuation would remain untouched by political interference, successive governments have repeatedly altered its rules. One of the most significant overhauls came in 2006/2007, when the Tax Laws Amendment (Simplified Superannuation) Bill introduced tax-free withdrawals for retirees over 60. At the time, then-Treasurer Peter Costello framed these reforms as creating a system that should not be continually adjusted, warning that constant changes would erode confidence.

Yet, in the years since, governments from both sides of politics have continued to modify tax settings, contribution limits, and access conditions, often using superannuation as a fiscal lever rather than a protected retirement asset. The 2025–26 Federal Budget follows this familiar pattern, underscoring the reality that superannuation is no longer immune from political and economic pressures—reinforcing the need for greater individual control.

Superannuation as a Budget Lever

The 2025–26 Federal Budget reinforces a trend that has been developing for years: superannuation is no longer just a retirement savings vehicle—it is now a key instrument of government fiscal policy. The Treasury has revised its forecast for super tax receipts up by $2.4 billion for 2025–26 and by $9.7 billion over five years, confirming that the government is increasingly reliant on super contributions and taxation to balance the books.

This reliance raises significant concerns about future policy direction. The possibility of taxing unrealised gains on large super balances remains on the table, a move that could force fund members to pay tax on paper profits even if assets have not been sold. Such a policy would introduce liquidity challenges, distort portfolio construction, and increase uncertainty around long-term financial planning.

In this evolving landscape, control over superannuation investments is becoming a strategic advantage. Investors who seek greater autonomy are increasingly looking beyond pooled industry and retail super funds, where policy decisions are outside their control, and towards self-managed super funds (SMSFs), where they can directly allocate capital into assets that align with their long-term vision of wealth preservation.

The Aussie Dollar's Structural Weakness and the Shift to Harder Assets

While the budget surplus may provide temporary stability for the Australian dollar, the underlying macroeconomic picture remains fragile. The AUD’s long-term value remains dependent on external factors, including commodity demand from China and broader USD liquidity conditions.

Domestically, the government’s approach to fiscal policy suggests that purchasing power erosion is likely to continue. While tax cuts and rebates offer short-term relief, they do not address the fundamental challenges of persistent inflation, energy insecurity, and structural weaknesses in key industries. As inflation continues to eat into real savings, investors are increasingly looking for hard assets that sit outside traditional monetary policy frameworks.

Bitcoin’s finite supply and resistance to centralised intervention make it an attractive hedge against currency depreciation. Within an SMSF, Bitcoin offers exposure to an asset that cannot be debased by policy decisions or inflationary fiscal management.

Bitcoin in an SMSF: A Path to Self-Sovereignty

Bitcoin’s role within an SMSF is not just about investment returns—it is about enhancing financial sovereignty. With the government demonstrating a willingness to adjust superannuation rules to meet fiscal objectives, retaining direct control over asset selection and portfolio strategy is becoming increasingly important.

Holding Bitcoin in an SMSF allows investors to:

Maintain autonomy over their retirement savings, rather than being subject to pooled fund management decisions.
Diversify away from traditional financial system risks, reducing exposure to AUD volatility and regulatory shifts.
Own an asset that is scarce, decentralised, and resistant to government intervention, providing an alternative to traditional wealth storage methods.
While Bitcoin held within an SMSF remains subject to the same regulatory and taxation rules as other superannuation investments, its fundamental attributes as a sovereign-grade asset make it a compelling option for those looking to preserve wealth in an era of policy uncertainty.

The Case for SMSFs in a Changing Superannuation Landscape

With superannuation becoming a major fiscal tool, passive reliance on industry super funds is becoming an increasingly risky proposition. Pooled funds are subject to changing regulatory frameworks, and investors have little say over how their capital is allocated.

An SMSF provides the flexibility to make independent asset allocation decisions, ensuring that investment strategies are aligned with personal financial goals rather than government policy shifts.

For those seeking greater control over their super, Bitcoin represents a natural addition to an SMSF portfolio. Unlike traditional financial assets, it operates outside the influence of central banks and government intervention, offering a store of value that remains independent of fiscal policy changes.

Final Takeaway: Bitcoin and the Future of Superannuation

The 2025–26 budget reinforces a key theme: the government is increasingly using superannuation as a tool to manage its own financial position, rather than solely as a mechanism for individual retirement savings. This shift underscores the importance of self-directed financial strategies.

Bitcoin, particularly when held within an SMSF, provides a pathway to enhanced financial sovereignty. While it remains within the superannuation regulatory framework, its decentralised nature, fixed supply, and resistance to external control make it a compelling asset for those looking to future-proof their wealth against fiscal overreach and currency devaluation.

The ability to control one’s own financial destiny is becoming an ever more valuable asset. In this environment, Bitcoin within an SMSF is an increasingly strategic choice for those looking to maintain autonomy over their long-term savings.

Written by Bisher Khudeira

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Overtrading leads to Underperformance

Fri, 13 Dec 2024 13:56:43 +1100

The recent price action in the crypto markets has underscored the importance of avoiding overtrading. Bitcoin has once again proven its dominance, climbing to new all-time highs while altcoins have delivered mixed results. Since November 7th, Bitcoin has surged from $66.8k to an all-time high of $104k, marking an impressive 50% rally in just a month. This rally initially drove Bitcoin dominance above 60%, only to retreat slightly, allowing altcoins to shine briefly—perhaps hinting at the start of an alt season. However, despite Bitcoin dominance peaking on November 21st, the price has continued its upward trajectory, setting new highs above $100k.

The strategy remains straightforward: buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the benchmark of the crypto market, and if your portfolio underperforms Bitcoin, you’re falling behind. Over the last 14 years, Bitcoin has delivered a staggering compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 155%, compared to Gold’s 7%. Bitcoin should be the cornerstone of your portfolio, complemented by a strong allocation to select altcoins poised to outperform during their brief periods of dominance.

The Cost of Trying to Outsmart Bitcoin

The real danger arises when investors or traders try to outsmart Bitcoin, attempting to sell at the top and buy back at the bottom. Bitcoin has a knack for punishing impatience, and those who sell early often end up buying back at higher prices. Similarly, waiting for lower prices can result in missed opportunities. For instance, in November 2022, when Bitcoin was at $15k, many hesitated to buy, anticipating a drop to $12k—which never came. These individuals eventually bought back in at much higher prices.

A more recent example occurred during the US election period, with Bitcoin trading just below $70k. Fear of a potential pullback under a Kamala Harris-led administration sidelined many investors. They missed out on the subsequent rally, where Bitcoin soared to over $100k.

The current rally, from $66.8k to $104k, further illustrates this phenomenon. Hesitant buyers have repeatedly waited for a larger pullback, only to watch Bitcoin recover and continue climbing. Even during two rapid corrections—from $99.4k to $90.8k and from $104k to $93.8k—many stayed on the sidelines, expecting deeper retracements. These missed opportunities left investors watching from the sidelines as Bitcoin surged to new heights.

Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market

The key takeaway? Time in the market beats timing the market. Bitcoin rewards patience and punishes overcomplication. Trying to trade Bitcoin often leads to underperformance, while simply buying and holding has historically delivered the best results.

When investors miss out on Bitcoin’s gains, they often turn to altcoins in a bid to catch up. While it’s true that some altcoins outperform Bitcoin, this period of outperformance is usually brief and limited to specific phases of the four-year cycle. For example, while outliers like Solana or Sui may outperform for extended periods, the majority of altcoins underperform Bitcoin most of the time.

During Bitcoin’s recent meteoric rally, only a handful of altcoins have matched or surpassed its performance, with most lagging far behind. Investors who shifted into altcoins hoping to make up for missed Bitcoin gains have, in many cases, fallen even further behind the benchmark.

Overtrading: A Losing Strategy

Emotion-driven traders often make poor decisions, buying into strength and selling into weakness. At first glance, this approach may seem logical, but the data tells a different story. Overtrading disadvantages you from the start—fees accumulate with every trade, and the constant attempt to chase moves results in suboptimal performance.

The portfolio simulation above, comparing an overtrader with a patient investor, highlights the stark difference: starting with $100,000, the overtrader consistently underperforms due to transaction costs and mistimed moves, while the patient investor who simply holds Bitcoin achieves significantly greater gains.

Overtrading is a slow but sure way to diminish your portfolio value. Trading fees, regardless of the platform, add up over time, eating into potential profits. The lesson is clear: holding Bitcoin long-term is a far more effective and sustainable strategy than trying to outmaneuver the market.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin is the foundation of any crypto portfolio for a reason. It offers unparalleled growth potential and serves as the benchmark against which all other assets are measured. Don’t fall into the trap of overtrading or chasing short-term gains. Patience, discipline, and a long-term mindset will always outperform impulsive decisions.

Let Bitcoin do the heavy lifting. Buy, hold, and reap the rewards over time. Keep calm and HODL

Written by Alexandar Artis and Tej Toor

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Giving Thanks for Bitcoin This Thanksgiving

Fri, 29 Nov 2024 14:05:18 +1100

Bitcoin has delivered wonders this year, giving many investors much to be thankful for. Thanksgiving is one of the few holidays when US markets close, but Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets remain open 24/7, 365 days a year. However, expect trading volume and volatility to dip as Americans take time off for the holiday. With Black Friday following closely, US markets will see only a half-day of trading. Real market activity is likely to pick up on Monday. Until then, we can anticipate reduced volatility, lower volume, and lower inflows into crypto ETFs.

Bitcoin has experienced a relatively calm 24 hours after a volatile 48-hour period earlier this week. The price fell to $90.8k before rallying back to $97k and has since consolidated around $96k. For those hoping for Black Friday crypto "deals," it seems the bargains came and went earlier this week during Bitcoin's correction.

Bitcoin dominance continues to decline and is entrenched in a bearish structure, while the Total2 index (total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin) continues to outperform. This trend may indicate we are in the transition between phase 1 and phase 2 of the bull market. The altcoin season index sits at 63, a high reading but still short of the key level of 75. Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin yesterday, further signaling that phase 2 of the bull market has not yet begun.

For those feeling underexposed or concerned about missing out, now is the time to strengthen your Bitcoin position. This market is still in its early stages, presenting long-term believers with an excellent opportunity. Contact your Stormrake Crypto Broker to make the most of this moment.

Stormrake Spotlight: Fantom ($0.995)

FTM continues its short-term pullback after a strong rally. This retracement presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors. The Sonic Migration upgrade has the potential to propel FTM into the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market cap and push it past its previous all-time highs.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/9zW4NUED/

Bitcoin recently broke out of its bearish structure, forming its first higher high. It now appears to be confirming a higher low. This price action has also created a bull flag pattern, with Bitcoin approaching a potential breakout above the top of the channel. The bull flag's target suggests a move back to $99k. Additionally, Bitcoin is trading above the key 21 EMA, which is expected to act as support as it trends higher.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 28 Nov: $ N/A million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/nRkHlBWx/

Ethereum remains in a bullish trend, sustaining its upward momentum after a massive rally. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum has formed a bull flag pattern, with a target of $3,820. ETH is also trading above the 21 EMA, which should provide support as it moves higher.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 28 Nov: $ N/A Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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The Correction Is Over: $100K Next for Bitcoin

Thu, 28 Nov 2024 10:50:14 +1100

We’ve just witnessed the first significant bull market correction of this cycle. It was swift and less severe than many anticipated—characteristic of bull market corrections, which are typically short-lived and don’t dip as low as expected. Bitcoin has already rallied over 6% from its recent low and appears ready to attempt breaking the $100k barrier once again.

This correction lasted two days, during which Bitcoin dropped 9% to a low of $90.8k. Many had expected a larger pullback of over 10%, bringing the price below $90k. However, in true Bitcoin fashion, it defied expectations, rebounding quickly and leaving those waiting for lower prices behind. We urged you to capitalise on these discounted prices, emphasising that corrections in bull markets are fleeting opportunities. It’s not too late; historically, buying into strength has often yielded positive returns.

Yesterday’s recovery has positioned Bitcoin to retest $100k before the month’s end. This move has re-established a bullish structure and shifted momentum back in favor of the bulls. Breaking $100k this month could pave the way for Bitcoin to rally further, potentially reaching $110k or even $120k before Christmas. With another interest rate cut expected in December and the traditional "Santa Claus rally" on the horizon, Bitcoin’s potential trajectory looks highly promising. Don’t miss out by hesitating or trying to time the market—remember, time in the market beats timing the market.

Interestingly, Bitcoin dominance continues to decline despite the overnight rally, with altcoins outperforming significantly. The altseason index has surged to a reading of 65! Ethereum is not only outperforming Bitcoin but also leading the charge alongside key projects on its network, including Ethereum Name Service, Uniswap, Ethena, Ethereum Classic, Lido, and Aave. This trend highlights a growing pattern: when a major blockchain like Ethereum, Solana, Sui, or Fantom leads the market, its associated protocols tend to experience even stronger rallies. To capitalise on this, research the leading applications and protocols on these blockchains and leverage their strength.

While it may be slightly premature to declare we’re in phase two of the bull market, we’re undoubtedly approaching it. Ethereum hasn’t consistently outperformed Bitcoin yet, but it’s starting to alternate in dominance, indicating we’re transitioning between phases.

For those feeling underexposed or worried they’ve missed the boat, now is the time to strengthen your Bitcoin position. This market remains in its early stages, presenting long-term believers with a prime opportunity. Contact your Stormrake Crypto Broker to seize this moment.

Stormrake Spotlight: Fantom ($1.057)

Fantom paused its rally yesterday, retreating 2.2% despite Bitcoin’s gains. This consolidation phase is both crucial and healthy, setting up Fantom for further upside. Once the short-term pullback concludes, we anticipate continued strength in FTM’s upward trajectory.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/7LRdKhWv/

Bitcoin has reclaimed its bullish structure, flipping momentum back to the bulls. It has formed a new higher high, achieved a bullish crossover of the 21- and 55-day EMAs, and is trading above all major moving averages. Bitcoin now appears poised to challenge the critical $100k level. Any pullback that stays above the previous low of $92.8k will preserve the bullish structure.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 27 Nov: $ N/A million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JFNhf5z4/

Ethereum’s chart looks almost too good to be true, with 12 consecutive green hourly candles driving a 7% rally. ETH has broken through the key resistance at $3,557, turning it into support, and is now approaching the next critical level of $3,724. Ethereum is red-hot and leading the market—this is not a coin to bet against.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 27 Nov: $ N/A Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Bitcoin's Correction Deepens—Is Alt Season Around the Corner?

Thu, 28 Nov 2024 10:46:07 +1100

Overnight, Bitcoin reached a low of $90.8k, marking an 8.88% decline from its all-time high of $99.6k set on Saturday. As the correction unfolds, Bitcoin dominance has dropped further, now sitting at 58.60%. This retracement has not only affected Bitcoin's price but also the Fear & Greed Index, which peaked at an "extremely greedy" 94 during Bitcoin's high—a level not seen since February 2021. While the correction may seem daunting, it is a healthy and much-needed reset, bringing both Bitcoin's price and market sentiment back to more sustainable levels.

Altcoins have demonstrated mixed performance amidst Bitcoin's correction, with some clearly outperforming. Fantom and Injective have emerged as leaders, shrugging off Bitcoin's decline, while other major altcoins like XRP and XLM have mirrored Bitcoin's downward trajectory. This divergence in performance has caused the Altcoin Season Index to climb to 53, up from 33 just two days ago. Although altseason isn't here yet, the momentum suggests it may arrive sooner than expected. Patience remains key—focus on accumulating Bitcoin and high-potential altcoins highlighted in our Stormrake Spotlight, then sit back and enjoy the ride.

Ethereum serves as a benchmark for altcoin strength. Since Bitcoin's all-time high on Saturday morning, Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin by 10%. If this correction had occurred last week, Ethereum likely would have suffered more significantly. However, the recent resilience in Ethereum and other altcoins underscores their growing strength against Bitcoin's pullback.

Stormrake Spotlight: Fantom ($1.06)

Fantom continues its upward trajectory, driven by anticipation for the upcoming Sonic Migration next month. FTM reached a high of $1.10 in the past 24 hours and is poised for further growth after a brief pullback to current levels. Remaining outside the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap, FTM has significant potential to not only revisit but exceed its all-time high.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/XexJ2UnZ/

Bitcoin's decline has reached the monthly CPR line, previously resistance and now acting as support at $90.9k. This level has provided a crucial bounce. To re-establish a bullish trend, Bitcoin needs to break above the 21 EMA, which continues to act as resistance, and create a higher high above $94,685. Achieving these levels would signal a return to bullish momentum.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 26 Nov: $ - 24.8 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/0E9i8mgK/

Despite its pullback, Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin. However, ETH has made a lower low, falling below a key support level, resulting in a bearish moving average cross. While this suggests caution, Ethereum remains within the 200 moving average zone, which should provide strong support for a potential rebound.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 26 Nov: $ - 6.6 Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Bitcoin Has Finally Dumped – Don’t Miss the Opportunity to Act!

Tue, 26 Nov 2024 14:50:03 +1100

The week of Black Friday kicked off with high volatility as Bitcoin (BTC) shed 4% overnight. Many altcoins followed suit, facing even steeper retracements. However, some have rebounded to higher levels post-dip, showcasing resilience as BTC struggles to regain footing.

As Black Friday approaches, the crypto market mirrors the frenzy of deals in shops and online. Several coins, such as Dogecoin (DOGE) and Sui (SUI), have dropped 20% from their recent highs recorded just last week, presenting opportunities for bargain hunters.

A Timely Pullback for Buyers?

For those waiting on a pullback, now may be the perfect time to act. Some altcoins have already staged recoveries, with tokens like Fantom (FTM) and SEI rebounding strongly. Both dumped by around 10% but are now trading higher than yesterday’s levels. While the broader market is experiencing some corrections, this is not the major pullback many had anticipated. Expectations of a 10% BTC decline and a 20-30% altcoin plunge have not materialised. In fact, many altcoins are outperforming BTC during its pullback.

This correction has been anticipated for weeks now—some have been waiting since BTC hit $75,000. The question remains: now that the pullback is here, will those who asked for it finally act? Don’t be left on the sidelines waiting for a price that might not arrive. Seize the opportunity, take advantage of discounted prices, and practice patience.

Stormrake Spotlight: Fantom ($1.035)

Fantom continues to demonstrate impressive strength. As noted yesterday, FTM’s resilience was on full display overnight. While Bitcoin pulled back 4%, FTM dropped 10% but swiftly rebounded, climbing over 12% from its overnight low and now trading above yesterday’s levels. Currently at its highest price since April, FTM looks poised for further gains.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/O7Y5z31Y/

Bitcoin’s current price chart leaves little room for optimism, with lower lows and trading below all key moving averages. However, a glimmer of hope lies in the latest hourly candle, which appears ready to engulf the previous red candle. If confirmed, this could signal the start of a bullish reversal. But this short term pullback will be short lived and should be seen as a buying opportunity for the long term.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 25 Nov: $ - 549.4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/GI6CnthG/

Ethereum continues to outperform Bitcoin, trading higher than yesterday. ETH maintains a bullish price structure with higher highs and lows, supported by a bullish cross of the 21 EMA and 55 EMA. Regardless of BTC’s movements, ETH appears positioned to climb further, potentially targeting $3,557.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 25 Nov: $ - 4.1 Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin Consolidates Ahead of Expected Black Friday Volatility

Tue, 26 Nov 2024 14:41:06 +1100

Over the weekend, Bitcoin took a backseat, allowing altcoins to shine. The memecoin sector recently enjoyed its rally, followed by "dino coins" such as ADA, XRP, and XLM. This weekend, the gaming sector emerged as the standout performer, with leaders like SAND, MANA, AXS, and GALA experiencing significant gains.

Currently consolidating just below $100,000, Bitcoin sits only 2.4% away from its all-time high of $99.6k, achieved early Saturday morning. On Saturday, we highlighted a potential bearish divergence that could hinder Bitcoin's upward momentum. This divergence appears to be materializing, with the short-term trend showing signs of weakness and potentially flipping bearish.

As Black Friday and Thanksgiving approach, this week promises to be eventful. Historically, these occasions have brought volatility to risk-on assets like Bitcoin. We could see Bitcoin regaining its momentum as the week progresses.

Stormrake Spotlight: Fantom ($1.01)

It's time to revisit Fantom, which we first spotlighted when FTM was trading at $0.50. Since then, the price has doubled to its current $1.01. This surge comes in anticipation of the highly awaited migration from FTM to Sonic ($S), expected to take place before the year ends.

This migration has garnered attention from some of the most respected minds in the crypto industry and is considered one of the most significant developments in recent times. Fantom was a leading cryptocurrency during the 2021 bull market, reaching a high of $3.46. A successful transition to Sonic could enable it to reclaim those levels.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/16WmmLWi/

Bitcoin has turned bearish after forming a series of lower highs and lower lows since Saturday's peak. This bearish momentum has led to a cross of the 21 and 55 EMA. Although BTC briefly attempted to reverse the trend by trading back above these levels, it failed and currently trades at the 21 EMA. For now, consolidation at this level seems likely. A break to the upside could pave the way for $100,000, while a downside move would make the 200 moving averages the first key target.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 22 Nov: $ N/A milion

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/7bUL6WZf/

After reaching $3,500 on Saturday night, ETH has retraced and fallen below the critical support level of $3,370. It now trades beneath both the 21 and 55 EMA, which are on the verge of flipping bearish once again. If ETH drops further, the $3,220 level, previously resistance—is expected to serve as strong support.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 24 Nov: $ N/A Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

$400 Away From $100,000: Bitcoin’s Big Moment Is Almost Here!

Tue, 26 Nov 2024 14:35:07 +1100

Bitcoin was just $400 away from reaching the monumental $100,000 mark—it’s so close, you can almost touch it. But the question remains: why are you hesitant? Once this psychological barrier is broken, Bitcoin could be unstoppable. Crossing the $100,000 milestone is expected to generate significant inflows and attention from mainstream media and retail traders. This surge of interest, which has been absent in recent years, may drive Bitcoin even higher, potentially leaving hesitant investors behind.

This is not the time to over analyse or attempt to time a pullback. Yes, pullbacks are inevitable—a 10-15% dip in Bitcoin could result in altcoins dropping by as much as 30%. However, let me pose this question: imagine it’s 10-15 years from now, and Bitcoin is valued at $500,000 or more. Wouldn’t you regret passing up potentially the last opportunity to buy Bitcoin under $100,000, all because you were waiting for a minor pullback that never came? Don’t let the possibility of a short-term dip deter you from the opportunity for generational wealth. The plan is simple: buy Bitcoin and hold.

Despite Bitcoin hitting another all-time high overnight, its dominance has fallen below 60%, indicating increased capital flow into altcoins. However, this decline in dominance is not significant enough to indicate the start of an alt season. The Altseason Indicator Index, which we discussed last week, is still at just 33. Since the index must exceed 75 to signal alt season, we are still a long way off. For now, Bitcoin is expected to outperform most altcoins.

Stormrake Spotlight: ONDO ($1.0323)

Ondo has been consolidating patiently around $1, successfully forming a base at this level and appearing ready to break out. Although price action has been subdued over the past few days, Ondo remains over 10% up from our initial mention in the Morning Note and looks set to climb higher.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/ASIZgZmE/

Bitcoin has achieved another all-time high, peaking at $99.6k—just $400 shy of the golden $100k level. The 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) continues to serve as a key support and is currently holding. If the 21 EMA does not hold, the 55 EMA is likely to act as support. While there are no significant price resistances, the psychological resistance of $100k remains critical. This could be further compounded by the bearish divergence observed, with prices rising while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) declines. This divergence might temporarily prevent Bitcoin from breaking $100k, leading to a retest of the 21 EMA or even the 55 EMA. However, this divergence is expected to be short-lived, with Bitcoin inevitably crossing the $100k threshold.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 22 Nov: $ - 61.4 Million (21 Nov saw an inflow of 1 billion)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/b5sSlYzj/

Ethereum continues its bullish momentum, retesting a key resistance level at $3,370 while trading above all major moving averages. After being rejected four times in the past four days, ETH is testing this critical level again. If Ethereum breaks above $3,370, it could see a clear path to $3,528. On the other hand, another rejection would likely see the 21 and 55 EMAs acting as strong support.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 22 Nov: $ - 14.2 Million (21 Nov saw an outflow of 9.0 million)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Nears $100,000: Only 2% Away from a Historic Milestone

Fri, 22 Nov 2024 16:38:15 +1100

Bitcoin has soared past $97,000, setting a new all-time high just shy of $99,000—marking the third consecutive day of record highs. The past 24 hours have encapsulated the essence of a true bull run. Bitcoin surged from $94.4K to $98K in just three hours, followed by a brief pullback, only to rally again late last night. This time, however, the rally was accompanied by significant movement in altcoins.

Among the majors, Ethereum emerged as the standout, rallying nearly 9%, with Solana closely following in second place. As altcoins gained momentum, Bitcoin's rally slowed, leading to a dip in Bitcoin dominance from 61.83% to 60.61%. Despite this decline, dominance remains above 60%, signaling that the market is still in the early stages of the bull run. A slight drop in dominance is not a sign of the next phase; the true "alt season" typically begins after a more substantial correction.

So, what are you waiting for? We are on the brink of a period where generational wealth can be created. Why remain on the sidelines? If you're hesitant, thinking Bitcoin is "too high" or that "a pullback is coming," consider this: Bitcoin has surged from $66.8K to $98.9K since November 4—a $30K rally—without a single pullback exceeding 3%. Many have been waiting for corrections at $75K, $82K, $88K, $92K, and now current levels, only to miss out on a 50% rally in under three weeks.

Ask yourself: are you willing to keep waiting for a pullback that might never come, risking the chance to participate in this generational opportunity? While a pullback may happen, it could just as easily occur after Bitcoin reaches $120K—still well above today's prices. The boat hasn’t left yet; it’s not too late. If anything, this is your signal to reassess your stance—you’re likely not bullish enough.

Stormrake Spotlight: ONDO ($1.011)

Ondo appears to be forming a solid base around the $1 mark, a critical technical and psychological level for investors. Historically, breaking through such key levels—whether $1, $10, or even $100,000!!—often signals further bullish momentum and leads to significantly higher trading levels. If Ondo maintains this base, it is well-positioned to move higher in the coming days.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/8k1zrrqz/

Bitcoin continues to post higher highs after small pullbacks, with price consistently bouncing off the 21-day EMA. Overnight, Bitcoin peaked just shy of $99K and is now pulling back, likely to retest support at the 21-day EMA. This level has proven to be a reliable indicator in bullish trends, and with no signs of the trend changing, it’s only a matter of time before Bitcoin breaks the psychological barrier of $100K. Once this level is breached, the potential for explosive upside becomes even more likely.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 21 Nov: $ N/A Million (20 Nov saw an inflow of 773.4 million)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/qciTVxQD/

After a lackluster performance in recent days, Ethereum has not only broken out of its range but also flipped its trend bullish in dramatic fashion. Within four hours, ETH rallied 8%, leading the altcoin surge. It has now reached key resistance at $3,370, which rejected it on two previous attempts. ETH is testing this level for the third time within 10 hours. If ETH breaks above $3,370, it is likely to continue its bullish momentum, targeting $3,512. If it fails to break through, it may pull back to support at the 21-day EMA.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 21 Nov: $ N/A Million (20 Nov saw an outflow of 30.3 million)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.