Stormrake is thrilled to announce that it is offering a 50% discount on brokerage fees for Bitcoin trades above $10,000. All eligible buys, sells and swaps can participate to celebrate the historic 4th Bitcoin Halving.

If you enjoyed this Thunder Trading, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

Welcome to another Riveting Rake Review as August delivered on some volatility and news again. From Supply shocks, to Aussie Banking issues, to ETF's, to Russian Billionaires accidentally being blown up, we go around the world as Bitcoin quietly counts down to the next halving in April.

Just as we were sending out the Rake Review huge news came through again. We had to delay the newsletter and add this key development. 

Judge Srinivasan & Edwards found that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was wrong to reject Greyscales ETF application and failed to explain their rejection. 

The result can still be challenged but if it stands is enormous for Bitcoin and the whole industry. For Greyscale it means they could turn their current Bitcoin fund into an ETF. Their current fund is the worlds largest holder of Bitcoin (Other than the Satoshi holding). 

It also means that there is great hope for the other 7 ETF applications currently before the SEC. As you will read below in the body of this newsletter we already see the ETF applications as the biggest catalyst for the next Bull-run.

Bitcoin has already responded in trading this morning up over 6% to almost $28,000 USD. The wider crypto market has also been dragged up by this news with ETH and SOL up 5%. As the market digests the news further how will this play out?

We will post a full analysis of this news in a separate article today.

The supply of coins on exchange is historically very low. According to Coinglass, less than 10% of Bitcoin supply is accessible through exchanges. That means the rest is safely put away in cold storage or similar. Available supply is extremely low. 

Look at the green line below. Less than 2 Million BTC is on exchange.

Bitcoin on exchange is now at a 5 year low, despite 5 years of mining adding to the supply. There is significant accumulation going on amongst the whales (large holders) and according to some reports Wall St funds are starting to accumulate a position ahead of launching their ETF's. It's an environment where any demand shock could spark a sharp rise.

Which Bank has sent a letter to every customer telling them that they can't send any more than $10,000 AUD per month to cryptocurrency exchanges? The Commonwealth Bank.

ANZ and NAB seem to also be looking at similar rules. Its a very concerning development for a western country. All of a sudden the Bank gets to choose what you can spend your "hard earned" on. That's despite the fact that its all legal. They just don't think the industry is a "good fit" or fits within their "risk appetite". With cash disappearing at a rapid rate in Australia its a real concern that we are seeing the future unfold. CBDC's are on the way and you might be looking into a little window of your future where you will be told what you can and can't spend your money on. Meat, fatty foods, coke, fast food, guns, produce of countries we don't approve, etc etc.

The key here is this. While you can buy Bitcoin you really need to because your AUD offramp could be cut at anytime and then you physically won't be able to buy while watching the price rocket and not being able to do anything about it.

We wrote about this in detail in our Thunder Trading update so I won't go into great detail here. However, given that this is key news, what you need to know is that the SEC has filed for an appeal. 

The curtain has not yet fallen on the riveting drama between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs. What once was hailed as a pivotal moment with the July 13 ruling is now heating up with an appeal, bringing further uncertainty to the crypto sphere.

Read more here.

A further demand side shock is expected from any movement on the approval process for US based Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's). While some players have had applications before the SEC for quite some time, the entry of BlackRock has been significant. Other players have quickly filed changes to their applications to be in line with BlackRocks filing. The reasoning is simple, BlackRock has an incredible track record of succeeding so the others want to be as similar as possible so that the SEC has no choice but to accept all of them if they want to approve BlackRock. 

So, we are witnessing the single biggest catalyst that could start the next BTC bullrun. If all of these funds are simultaneously approved the demand it brings in is incredible. Given the already low supply and the halving this could ignite the whole market.

ETH is also there with the same players filing for ETH based ETF's also. 

The Bitcoin Halving is under 2/3 of a year away. In April, the amount of BTC released every block will halve lowering supply to hit the market. In the past this has helped put a supply shock into the market and we have seen what can happen to price. Don't get caught short.

• The Bitcoin HashRate has been widely reported as hitting a record high. Unlike traditional crypto winters where hashrate has dipped, this time around hashrate is flying. 
• The Russian Mercenary General and Billionare Prigozhin killed in a recent flight near Moscow has been linked to one of the largest crypto wallets. While you should take this with a grain of salt, it would certainly be interesting if true and would pose the question of whether he passed on his private keys.
  
• Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF applications in the US reach a record number with Wall St funds lining up to have a crack at the large end of town's demand for crypto.
• Ilya "Dutch" Lichtenstein admitted to being the Bitfinex hacker as part of his guilty plea. That hack was the largest ever and LEO holders are lining up for their piece of the seized funds.
  

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

Welcome to another jam packed Rake Review as July delivered on news and controversy again. From Central Banks, to Regional Banks, to BRICS, to China, to new listings that claim to be the answer "Worldcoin", we go around the world as Bitcoin quietly counts down to the next halving in April.

We've talked a lot about the dangers of manipulated money markets and how the outcomes of that manipulation lead to poor economic outcomes. This month we saw no less than the Australian Central Bank's (RBA) governor be replaced with him being out of a job by September this year. 

Earlier Phillip Lowe (RBA Chief) told Australians that near zero interest rates would not rise for until at least 2024. Since then we saw the steepest rise in rates in Australia's history. Mortgage payers are understandably upset and the anger was felt at the recent parliamentary enquiry. The result - Swapping Phillip Lowe for his deputy. A change aimed at appeasing the angry populace that is struggling under the weight of enormous interest repayments but a change that will have zero impact as long as the RBA mandate remains the same. Another change is that the RBA will move from monthly meetings to 1 & a half  monthly. You are expected to believe that 8 interest rises a year will be better than 12. That's for people that don't know that it doesn't matter how many slices a pizza has - its the total size. It's like walking into a restaurant and asking it to be cut into 8 instead of 12 because you aren't very hungry.

The US has only 8 meetings a year for the Fed but that hasn't stopped them from having the steepest climb of interest rates in their history. Yesterday, true to his word the Fed chair Jerome Powell announced yet another rise of 0.25%. He is currently at no risk of being replaced like his Australian cousin. In fact, while recession fears abound in parts of the economy, this month actually makes it look like a soft landing is possible. Data suggests that inflation is moderating (in both Australia & the US), and parts of the economy are surprisingly resilient. For example, jobs data is still very strong. Could the US achieve a soft landing? Could we see inflation being lowered at the same time as the economy doesn't get destroyed? Our base case would be that as soon as the Fed lowers rates we see inflation kick up again.

While news filters through of China's foreign minister Qin Gang being purged from the records, China's growth seems to have stagnated. China was very slow to leave the COVID lockdown madness. They only abandoned target zero once there was mass unrest in the provinces to the point where the Communist party's authority was in doubt. Once opening up China has struggled to regain their growth rate with high youth unemployment and significant problems in the property sector. Having said all that, official growth is still over 6% annualised which in the western world would be fantastic growth. As a result, it seems likely China will cut interest rates and take other measures to free up credit which outs pressure on the US to do the same.

After the Banking crisis (spate of Bank failures and bailouts) in the US we had in March, we saw another Bank go down in July. PacWest (another regional bank) had lost 2/3 of its value after clients started to seek to move their deposits to safer (guaranteed) banks. The Banc of California has agreed to buy the whole of PacWest.

However, the big question remains which is: Will this latest failure trigger a new waive of Bank failures. No one knows exactly how much losses banks are carrying from over investment in government Bonds that have crashed since the Fed started its tightening cycle. By some accounts a significant number of Banks in the US and around the world are technically insolvent.

We wrote about this in detail in our Thunder Trading update so I won't go into great detail here. However, given that this is key news, what you need to know is that on the whole the SEC suffered a defeat and Ripple is clear of charges that it sold unregistered securities (to retail clients at least). It's a huge win for the crypto industry and a reason to be bullish going into the halving and a period of time where crypto prices are a rubber band ready to fly. XRP, XLM, SOL and many others are up significantly since the ruling was announced.

As a slight warning, it is still possible that the SEC could appeal. Lyn Alden has recently said that she thinks there is a high likelihood of an appeal given the SEC's comments on the decision.

Blackrock has filed for a Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) at the SEC and others have either followed or changed their filing to be in line with that of Blackrock. The reason for that is simple, Blackrock, the worlds largest fund manager has an impeccable track record of succeeding in its filings. No one has yet succeeded to get an ETF up in the US but with Blackrock's filing the odds of success seem to have increased. 

More than that, Blackrock seems to have already invested in BTC with Larry Fink once a detractor now publicly spruiking Bitcoin as a truly global investment. Again this is incredibly positive news for the industry as the amount of funds under the control of Blackrosk and the other fund managers is astronomic compared to Bitcoins tiny 570BN USD Market Cap. If they invest, Bitcoins price could rocket. We have saved the Video of the Month below for Larry.

Oh, by the way, Blackrock now suggesting 84.9% Bitcoin allocation is the way to go. That's pretty crazy even by our standards.

The biggest launch of July was Worldcoin (WLD). Founded by Sam Altman, the man behind Open AI, Worldcoin is a controversial ID technology delivered through the global power of crypto. If you think that sounds amazing, think again as many think this could usher in a dystopian future. Ben Simpson of Collective Shift says "The big issue becomes who we want to create and gate-keep our digital identities."

Do you actually want your eyes biometrically scanned for your digital wallet and digital ID?  Strangely, thousands of people are lining up.  Also, unsurprisingly, the tokenomics here are designed to make huge money for the founders. Only a small % of the total supply is released and market makers have been called in to set the price where founders want it. Beware.

Finally, the Bitcoin Halving is under 3/4 of a year away. In April, the amount of BTC released every block will halve lowering supply to hit the market. In the past this has helped put a supply shock into the market and we have seen what can happen to price. Don't get caught short.

• More rumblings around the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China +) introducing a new gold backed currency to replace the USD
  
• DOGE coin rallied on the back of news that that Twitter's rebrand will introduce a DOGE payment option as Musk makes waives again.
  
• CZ and Binance fighting back against CFTC in new filing
  
• After halting rates last meeting the Fed increases 0.25%. Larry Fink expects another 1% worth of rises over the next year.

For something completely different and a bit more fun we wrote an article about schooling and education. Take a break from finance, crypto and economics and have a leisurely read here: https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/the-world-is-run-by-c-students

Where do you sit on this: Do C students Run the World? Do A students Rule? Can someone without a high school diploma succeed in business? 

Is Schooling actually serving our children in 2023?

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.