Stormrake - Insights #HYPE

Smart Money Buys the Dip as Bitcoin Hits $80K

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 18:41:32 +1100

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After breaking below the key $88K level, Bitcoin virtually teleported down to $80K in less than 24 hours. While most of the market panics, with the Fear & Greed Index crashing back down to 11 in extreme fear, smart money is quietly dollar cost averaging into these levels.

The liquidity crunch continues. It’s not just crypto facing selling pressure, even precious metals are cooling off. Gold has now posted two consecutive red days as it fights to stay above $4,000, while silver is pulling back from all time high territory and potentially flashing bearish signals with a double top forming.

This broad based selloff is being driven by institutions offloading assets to repay yen denominated debt, as rising yields in Japan drive up borrowing costs. But in a surprising twist, there’s some good news. The probability of a US rate cut next month has surged to 71%, a major swing from just 33% only two days ago after the FOMC minutes. This shift has come off the back of fresh dovish commentary from Federal Reserve member Williams.

While the market pulls back, smart money continues to DCA and take advantage of these lower prices. Retail tends to do the opposite, buying at highs and panic selling at lows. A consistent DCA strategy allows investors to lower their average entry price over time rather than sitting on the sidelines waiting for the impossible task of picking the bottom. Remember, only one person buys the bottom. Those who DCA understand that time in the market beats timing the market. The old virtue still rings true.

At Stormrake, we’re strong advocates of DCA as it not only takes advantages of lower prices but also removes emotions from investing, which is a major hinderance for most. We offer a dedicated DCA service. If you’re looking to join the smart money and take advantage of current price action, contact your Stormrake broker today.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($34.19)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/xaR2caCo/

As we highlighted yesterday, HYPE was approaching a decision point, bullish trendline support versus bearish 21EMA resistance. Unfortunately for the bulls, the bears have reclaimed control, with HYPE dropping nearly 10% yesterday. For long term believers, this could present a prime opportunity to DCA.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/svIzoYDh/

On the surface, Bitcoin fell less than 2% yesterday. However, that decline was cushioned by a bounce off a key support level at $81.6K. Bulls defended this zone well, halting the bleed and kicking BTC back above $85K. Price is now back at the 21EMA, a level that has consistently acted as resistance with bulls struggling to break above it on recent rallies.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 21 Oct: + 324.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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US Dollar Strength Triggers Broader Market Retreat

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 18:19:28 +1100

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Risk-on markets took a major step back overnight as the US Dollar continued to show strength. Bulls once again failed to gain ground, with price action falling to $86K for the first time since late April as another key support level gave way.

Despite extremely strong economic data yesterday and green US equity futures, the session closed red. The S&P 500 saw its weakest close since 10 September, while the Nasdaq finished at its lowest level since 11 September. Both indices are now trading lower than they were during the mass liquidation and tariff mixup on 10 October.

NVIDIA failed to build on its strong earnings momentum. After a very green day yesterday, it dropped more than 3% yesterday, fully engulfing those gains and closing at its lowest level in a month.

Earlier this week, we discussed the potential impact of the Yen carry trade unwinding, particularly as rising borrowing costs force institutions to sell risk assets in order to repay borrowed Yen. That pressure has continued, with the Dollar strengthening further against the Yen. The question now is whether the Bank of Japan will step in to intervene. A likely move would involve selling US bonds to buy back Yen, which would cause the Dollar to weaken against the Yen. We saw the yen strengthen against the dollar last year during the previous unwind, so it’s definitely something to watch closely over the coming weeks.

We also got the first unemployment figures since the US government shutdown. The rate has ticked up, adding more uncertainty to whether the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting. As of now, markets are pricing in a 60% chance of no change and a 40% chance of a 25bps cut. With the decision due in early December, we should get clearer signals soon on how the Fed plans to proceed and what that means for markets.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.00)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/pnKu4gL9/

HYPE has held up relatively well, down just 2% while broader markets fell harder. It’s still respecting its bullish trendline, which is encouraging, but continues to struggle at the 21EMA resistance. That point of confluence is approaching fast, one side has to give soon.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/vLC9l1is/

Bitcoin is down nearly 5% in the past 24 hours, failing to hold above its moving averages. The break below $88,888 has now flipped that key level into resistance. This was the strongest support between current price and $75K, though before testing that, we’re watching $86K as the next immediate support level.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 20 Oct: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA Earnings Steal the Spotlight as Bitcoin Holds Support...

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 15:52:51 +1100

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Last night Bitcoin was influenced by macro data and earnings from the traditional markets, which weighed on two of the main drivers of risk on sentiment. The FOMC and NVIDIA are two of the most influential forces in risk on markets. The FOMC dictates interest rates and NVIDIA, now the largest company in the market, has a major influence on how risk assets move.

FOMC Minutes

This morning’s release of the FOMC minutes covered everything discussed at last month’s interest rate meeting. We saw a 25 bps cut followed by Powell’s unexpectedly hawkish press conference. The minutes showed a 10 to 2 vote in favour of a 25 bps cut, with one member wanting no cut and another calling for a more aggressive 50 bps cut. The discussions were far more divided than the vote suggests.

Officials disagreed on what poses the greater risk, whether it is weakness in the labour market or persistent inflation. The government shutdown also complicated matters, with Powell describing the situation as like driving in the fog because key data was not being released during that period.

The minutes have injected fresh uncertainty into the path forward. Overnight the probabilities for December’s rate decision flipped. Markets now imply a 67% chance of no change and a 33% chance of another 25 bps cut. Yesterday, before the minutes were released, markets were pricing a 55% likelihood of a cut.

This represents a sharp turnaround from a couple of months ago when markets expected three cuts totalling 75 bps across the final two meetings. We now look set to get only one cut for the entire year. This is quite remarkable considering that late last year many investors expected as many as five. Rates will have to come down eventually so it is not the end of the world for risk on assets that usually benefit from lower rates. This year has simply been weighed down by tariffs, macro uncertainty and most recently the government shutdown.

NVIDIA Earnings

Traditional markets focused on NVIDIA’s earnings and as expected they exceeded forecasts. The stock rallied nearly 2% during the session and added another 3% in after hours trading once the results were released.

This lifted futures for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Both appear set to break their short term down trend and potentially resume a bullish move. The earnings result also eased concerns that the artificial intelligence bubble is about to burst.

Bitcoin Reaction

Bitcoin has not shared in the broader risk on rally. It once again retested the key level at $88,888 and once again it held. This is a constructive sign for the bulls and may offer short term support and a temporary bottom.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.29)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZAXDRV4v/

HYPE had another relatively flat day, moving less than 1% but continuing to respect its trend line and set a series of higher lows. It also continues to outperform much of the market which highlights the strength and demand behind the project.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/vLC9l1is/

Yesterday we highlighted that Bitcoin faced a significant hurdle at the 55 EMA and the yearly open at $93,500. BTC failed to break through and pulled back to the key support at $88,888 where it saw a solid bounce.

It is now retesting the 21 EMA which is likely to act as resistance and may push BTC back toward the same key support level.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 19 Oct: $ + 53.8 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Is the Yen Carry Trade Breaking Again?

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 14:46:15 +1100

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Last year we saw the yen carry trade unwind when the Bank of Japan shocked markets and raised interest rates. A carry trade refers to borrowing a currency at a low interest rate and reinvesting it into a currency or asset that provides a higher return. When the BOJ unexpectedly raised rates, foreign investors scrambled to repay their borrowed yen by selling off the assets they had purchased using that debt. The resulting wave of selling led to a sharp market correction.

At the time, Bitcoin was trading just below its then all time high in the low $70K region before suffering a brutal 30% correction down to $49K within a week.

The gift and the curse of Bitcoin is that it trades 24/7, 365 days a year. You can always buy it, but you can also always sell it. So when events like these hit, Bitcoin tends to be the first victim. Investors rush to get liquid and often sell what they can access immediately as every other asset class has closed hours. Despite the panic, Bitcoin found a base at $49K and rallied again.

This event also saw the yen strengthen significantly against major currencies. USDJPY dropped from a 34 year high of 161 down to 140, a 15% rally for the yen over the next 11 weeks.

Now, while we haven’t seen another BOJ rate hike yet, Japanese bond yields are climbing. The 30 year yield is now at 3.31% its highest ever, while the 10 year sits at 1.73%, the highest since 2008. Rising yields mean borrowing costs go up, making the carry trade more expensive. Investors are again being forced to sell off assets to repay their yen loans.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled more rate hikes may be on the way, with the next rate decision due mid December. Markets are currently pricing in a 50% chance of a hike, an outcome that would accelerate the unwind.

So far, the USDJPY pair hasn’t dropped as it did last year. It is currently sitting at 155. In fact, the yen has slightly weakened against the dollar. But analysts are projecting a move back to the 145 to 148 range if yields remain elevated into late 2025. If the BOJ hikes again or stays firm on policy, USDJPY could fall back to 140, marking the official unwinding of the carry trade.

As a result, non yield bearing assets have taken a step back across the board, regardless of whether they’re traditionally seen as risk on or risk off. The S&P 500 is down nearly 2% since the start of the week. Nasdaq is off over 2%. Gold is holding relatively sideways as it wrestles with the $4,000 level. Bitcoin is down just over 1.5%.

Keep in mind, the last time the yen carry trade unwound, Bitcoin dropped 30%. Bitcoin is now just shy of a 30% correction from its all time high. If this unwind plays out the same way, then it’s just a question of where you measure the 30% from, the all time high or recent levels.

If we do see a deeper correction from this unwind, it only opens the door for further accumulation of undervalued assets like Bitcoin.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.71)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/0iWrmpoB/

HYPE was having a solid day, up over 6% intraday and finally pushing above the 21EMA. But once again, resistance proved too strong and we’re now looking at a red close. That said, bulls can still find encouragement. HYPE continues to hold above its higher low and may have just printed another one despite broader market weakness.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/d3iFWJuN/

Bitcoin tapped the key support level at $88,888 and saw an expected bounce. We’re now retesting the yearly open which would be a big win for the bulls if reclaimed. However, bears have a stronghold here too, with the 55EMA offering additional resistance. A sustained break above both levels could flip momentum in favour of the bulls, the first real step toward breaking the ongoing downtrend.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 18 Oct: $ + 139.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Why This Is Not the Time to Be Selling Bitcoin!

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 14:31:14 +1100

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The classic adage in investing is ‘buy low, sell high’ but that is easier said than done. Most retail investors tend to do the opposite. They chase the hype, pile in during bull markets, then panic and sell during downturns. Often, they sell undervalued assets at a loss and rotate into overvalued assets near the top. Before long, the new asset retraces sharply while the original investment they abandoned outperforms.

There is a common misconception that bull markets create wealth. In reality, wealth is built through multiple cycles of patience and disciplined accumulation. Those actively buying during bear markets rather than selling into fear are the ones quietly building long-term positions. They take advantage of panic sellers and depressed prices because they have conviction in Bitcoin’s future.

The ones who sell now, telling themselves they will buy back in at the bottom, rarely do. They often miss the opportunity entirely and end up rebuying Bitcoin at higher prices once the market is euphoric again. Time in the market beats timing the market every time.

The real question should not be ‘how low will Bitcoin go’ but rather ‘how high could it go’. If you understand Bitcoin, you know the answer. It is up and to the right. The same structural problems that make Bitcoin attractive as a hedge only continue to worsen. The use case strengthens, institutional and sovereign adoption grows, and many project Bitcoin could exceed $1 million per coin.

So if you bought Bitcoin at a higher price and are now considering panic-selling to rotate into other assets at all-time highs, take a step back. Assess the long-term picture. Do not get caught selling bottoms and chasing tops. There is a saying for investors who try to pick the bottom ‘he who tries to pick the bottom usually ends up with stinky fingers.’ Step back, stay calm, and dollar cost average. When the market turns, you will be glad you held your nerve.

We have been here before. Bitcoin pulling back from a fresh all-time high is not new. Negative sentiment is recycled content for the media and influencers because it drives clicks. Earlier this year, Bitcoin hit $100,000 before pulling back to $75,000. People panic sold, hoping to re-enter at $50,000 or $60,000. Price is now $92,000. Last year, it dropped from $74,000 to $50,000 and people panic sold. Same story, price is now $92,000. In April 2022, Bitcoin was at $40,000 and the market rang the bear market bell again. Yes, it dropped further, but most investors disappeared only to return and buy back in higher. You get the picture.

The ones who sell during peak fear and listen to those saying to get out might laugh for a moment, but over time, they usually end up with egg on their face. The ones who buy during those moments are the ones who always have the last laugh. So what’s going to be different this time?

Now let’s look at one of the more talked-about signals: the death cross.

Death Cross: Not Always a Death Sentence

The death cross is when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day simple moving average. It is typically seen as a bearish indicator. But let’s dig into the data.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ejk9FTZQ/

Since 2021, the death cross has occurred five times. Two of those crosses happened after the bottom was already in. Two others occurred just days before the bottom. Only one of them, the outlier, preceded a longer bear market that took Bitcoin to $15,000. In other words, four out of five times the death cross either marked the bottom or was very close to it.

Now add to this the fact that sentiment is at multi-year lows. These levels have historically marked bottoms, often within the same month or shortly after. This supports the idea that we could be much closer to the bottom than most realise. This is not a time to sell. It is a time to accumulate and stay patient.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.50)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6YAGEQFZ/

HYPE had another flat session and in this market, that is not a bad thing. Bitcoin dropped 2.50% yesterday, yet HYPE held firm. It appears to be building a base, which signals strong underlying demand.

The key level to watch remains $35.35. That higher low is pivotal. If HYPE can form another higher low above this level, it would be a strong sign.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/iPCNLUid/

As expected, the yearly open level did not hold. Bears rejected another rally at the 21 EMA, and Bitcoin now looks set to retest key support at $88,888 in the coming days.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 17 Oct: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Has the Bear Market Begun?

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 14:24:56 +1100

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It was a tall order for the bulls over the weekend, but they could not stop the bears from confirming a classic bear market signal.

We have mentioned it a few times before. The weekly Bitcoin exponential moving averages, particularly the 55EMA, continue to play a major role in shaping market structure. Last week, we pointed out a bounce from this level and highlighted its importance. In Saturday’s morning note, we said Bitcoin had fallen below it and needed to reclaim $99,000. It was a major test that the bulls ultimately failed.

Bitcoin has now closed below the 55EMA on the weekly chart for the first time since September 2023, when the market was beginning to recover from the previous bear cycle. The last time this happened while still in a bullish posture, meaning the 21EMA remained above the 55EMA, was in April 2022. That breakdown preceded a larger decline that eventually took Bitcoin to $15,000 later that year.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JxJwcsI3/

We now anticipate a longer corrective period. Historically, a weekly close below the 55EMA during a bull market posture has signalled the beginning of a deeper bear phase. Previous cycles have seen further drawdowns of around 60% from that point, lasting five to eight months. If a similar move occurred from current levels, Bitcoin would fall below $40,000. But remember, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bitcoin has also returned to its yearly open, which adds to the uncertainty. For 2025, the path ahead could now go in either direction. Few would have expected such a sharp retest. We anticipate a move below $90,000, with the possibility of revisiting April’s lows in the low $70,000 region. These types of corrections have historically been opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices. The long term outlook remains unchanged, and the bullish narrative for Bitcoin is still intact.

However, as mentioned on Saturday, there is also a contrary signal that suggests the bottom could arrive sooner than expected. A death cross has just formed, which we will break down in tomorrow’s morning note. The name sounds ominous, but not all death crosses lead to extended downside. Some have actually marked reversal points. Stay tuned.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($34.49)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ux6RjDyg/

HYPE produced a flat session yesterday. Both bulls and bears attempted to take control, but the market closed right at the opening price. Bulls were once again capped by the 21EMA resistance, a recurring ceiling throughout the month. However, bears are still failing to generate strong downside momentum, which is a subtle positive for the bullish case.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/iPCNLUid/

It was a weekend of resistance for the bulls, who struggled with the 21EMA and could not push higher. The bears have stepped back in with renewed strength and dragged Bitcoin back to the yearly open at $93,500. This level is not expected to hold. We now anticipate a revisit of the next key support level at $88,888.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 16 Oct: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Here Comes the Pain; Bear market ahead or bottom forming?

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 13:48:22 +1100

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Bitcoin has just had its worst day since the October 10 liquidations. It closed over 5% down and is now trading below $95K, where the majority of the selling is taking place. Major altcoins are also in the red but have not fallen as much as Bitcoin over the last 24 hours. That is not a sign of altcoin outperformance. Zoom out and you will see altcoins have struggled for most of the year. Do not get distracted by short periods where they fall less than Bitcoin.

Yesterday we highlighted the yearly open at $93.5K as the next level of interest. We have almost reached that level, much quicker than expected, which speaks to the strength of the bears and the current lack of confidence across the crypto market. Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows and sentiment is near record lows. The Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 10, one of the lowest readings ever recorded.

Historically, when the index hits 10 or lower, it often marks the bottom or a bottom forming within the next few months.

Historical Fear and Greed readings at 10 or lower:

Present day (10): Bitcoin at $95K
27 February (10): Bitcoin at $85K, bottomed at $75K in April
June 2022 (7): Bitcoin around $25K, bottomed at $15K in November
May to July 2021 (multiple readings of 10): Bitcoin ranged from $30K to $36K before bottoming in July
March 2020 (10): Bitcoin at $6K and bottomed in the same month

Over the last five years, each time the index has reached 10 or lower, a bottom has formed that month or within the next few months. That does not guarantee $95K is the bottom. We may continue lower and the current momentum suggests that we do. But it is a strong signal that the bottom could be forming over the next few months. This is not the time to panic with the crowd. If anything, it is a time to start thinking about accumulation.

Bitcoin has now fallen back below the weekly 50/55 EMA. This is a key structural indicator of whether the market is in a bull or bear phase. It is the first time price has moved below it since April 7. Back then we saw an intraweek reversal and Bitcoin went on to hit new all time highs in the months that followed. This week’s candle closes Monday at 11am. For Bitcoin to avoid closing below the 50/55 EMA and potentially confirming a bearish trend, it must reclaim around $99K before then. We will revisit this after the close on Monday to assess what it means going forward.

It is an interesting time. Sentiment is at one of the lowest points in five years, a strong contrarian signal that usually suggests a bottom is close. But the technical structure is weak and the bears are clearly in control. Both sides have a case. We are now waiting to see who takes control...

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($37.38)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/LJT6rlmP/

Another red day as the bears look to take full control. HYPE dropped 2.70% and is edging closer to a key higher low. If that level breaks, the bears will have full control. It is a difficult environment for altcoins and Bitcoin’s weakness tends to hit them even harder. Be cautious with entries.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ykveMEQw/

The chart is ugly. Rallies continue to fail at the 21 EMA and just give bears more opportunities to reload before sending price lower. We are now sitting just above the yearly open at $93.5K. If that fails, expect a move down to $88,888. The current trend is firmly with the bears. It would take a strong rally to break this structure and shift momentum back in favour of the bulls.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 14 Oct: - $20.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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$100K Lost Is It Over?

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 13:36:24 +1100

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The bulls’ last stand appears to have failed as Bitcoin falls back below $100K once again

This marks the first daily close under $100K since 7 May, over six months ago, and confirms we are now in a correction phase, with Bitcoin more than 20% down from its all time high in early October. Is it over?

The bears are firmly in control. Structurally, technically, and in terms of momentum, there is no hiding from that fact. Every rally over the past month has failed. Each attempt by the bulls has been sold into, as bears continue to apply pressure and force prices lower. Most altcoins are significantly down over the last few weeks, and sentiment is deeply buried in extreme fear. We are currently seeing a sentiment reading of 16, just one point above yesterday.

That said, sentiment is still slightly more constructive than earlier this year, when Trump was announcing tariffs and Bitcoin was tumbling from $100K. Price wise, we are at similar levels to 12 months ago, but sentiment has completely flipped. From extreme greed in November last year to extreme fear today.

It has been extremely frustrating to see Bitcoin fail to make any meaningful progress throughout 2025. Especially when you consider that gold has dominated and up over 60%, and the S&P 500 has constantly hit the headlines with fresh all time highs. Over the same period, the S&P is only up around 13% but it is the consistency and strength of those moves that matter. It simply has not been the right environment for Bitcoin or risk on assets to thrive.

Yes, we have seen pockets of outperformance throughout the year, but overall 2025 has been dominated by uncertainty. That is the kind of backdrop where gold and risk off assets perform best.

Despite the lacklustre price action, the groundwork for Bitcoin has been laid. We have seen major adoption across both the political and institutional space, not just for Bitcoin but for the entire crypto ecosystem. It is becoming more accepted, more integrated, and more widely utilised.

The macro uncertainty that defined most of this year is now fading. Trade deals are being finalised, ceasefires are being agreed, and major wars that impacted investor sentiment appear to be winding down. Quantitative easing is on the horizon and interest rates continue to be cut. So while Bitcoin’s price has been underwhelming, the broader environment has quietly improved as the year has gone on. This may well set the stage for a stronger 2026.

If Bitcoin does enter a prolonged correction over the coming months, it should be seen as an opportunity. A chance to accumulate at lower prices and position for what may come as macro conditions shift. Now that $100K has been lost, all eyes turn to the yearly open at $93.5K.

Historically, Bitcoin has at least doubled following the McRib’s return. Will it do so again? We will have to wait and see.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.22)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/V2q0RYd8/

HYPE managed to stay green despite the broad market weakness, but this was not a move to celebrate. Expect it to continue following Bitcoin until BTC finds solid footing. Ideally, Bitcoin consolidates before HYPE retests its higher low at $35.35. A close above this would be positive for structure.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/OK1HjZhb/

Another disappointing intraday reversal for Bitcoin. Bulls were rejected at $104K, and worse still, the daily close came in below $100K. This level is now being retested, but with bears in control, a failure to reclaim this level could lead to a move towards the yearly open at $93.5K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 13 Oct: - $382.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bulls on the Brink: Is This Their Last Stand?

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 12:10:55 +1100

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Waking up to another failed rally attempt, Bitcoin is under pressure again as bears step in and defend another key liquidation level. We are now approaching $100K for the fifth time in just over a week, and each attempt is making this support zone weaker.

The US session was relatively flat across traditional indices, but precious metals saw strong bullish momentum. Gold rose nearly 2%, reclaiming $4,200, while silver led the charge with a 4% move and now sits less than 2.5% away from a new all-time high. Despite this risk-on tone in metals, the sentiment did not translate to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin briefly pushed above $105K before the US session opened, but once again failed to hold higher levels. Bears stepped in aggressively, loading up shorts and continuing to put downward pressure on price. As mentioned yesterday, there is close to $1 billion in short positions on Binance alone that would be liquidated if Bitcoin hit $108.5K. Across all major venues, the broader liquidation figure sits at $4 billion. This is why rallies are being so heavily defended. Bears are in control and they are not letting go.

Currently, even a bounce to $105K would put $1 billion of shorts at risk, so this level could mark a final stand for the bulls.

Why is this potentially the final stand? Not only because of the mounting short interest, but also because we are retesting $100K again. The general principle with support and resistance is simple. The more a level is tested, the weaker it becomes. This is the fifth attempt. Support is wearing down and the market knows it. It is not just a technical level but a key psychological one. If $100K fails, a move into the low $90Ks is very likely. Keep in mind that Bitcoin opened 2025 at $93.5K. If we lose $100K, Bitcoin could be battling to stay green on the year, which is a stark contrast to what most were expecting just a few months ago.

Still, there is one important historical fact. Bitcoin has never posted two red years in a row. If 2025 ends in the red, history would suggest that 2026 could be a strong recovery year. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results, but the pattern is worth watching.

Sentiment continues to deteriorate. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index now sits at 15, firmly in extreme fear territory, and at its lowest reading since 27 February. Bears are getting bolder, adding more shorts and selling spot Bitcoin to drive the price lower. The overall structure remains bearish unless Bitcoin can reclaim $112K, which would not only flip momentum back to the bulls but also wipe out at least $7 billion in short positions.

Historically, Bitcoin has at least doubled following the McRib’s return. Will it do so again? We will have to wait and see.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.40)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/gV5ze4el/

HYPE was relatively flat over the last 24 hours despite an onchain exploit that targeted the Hyperliquid decentralised exchange. A single trader manipulated the POPCAT market, prompting the Hyperliquid team to briefly halt deposits and withdrawals. The issue was handled quickly, and operations resumed soon after.

Despite the exploit, HYPE held steady and even outperformed Bitcoin on the day. The market does not appear concerned. Investors will want to keep a close eye on the recent higher low, which must hold to prevent the bears from taking full control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/mWF6m22L/

Bitcoin fell 4% during the US session and closed red on the day. A failed rally above $104K gave bears more confidence, with structure now shifting in their favour following the formation of another lower high. A retest of $100K is back on the table, and each revisit increases the chances of a breakdown.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 12 Oct: - $108.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bears Hold Strong with Billions in Shorts on the Line

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 14:01:22 +1100

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Last month we saw over $20 billion of leveraged positions wiped out within 24 hours as Bitcoin fell from $117K to $102K and settled around $112K by day’s end. It was a major black swan event. Since then, short orders and downward pressure have dominated, with Bitcoin falling back below $100K and now trading just under $103K.

Yesterday we saw an intraday high of $107.5K on the back of the Tariff Dividend proposal from Trump, which sent all risk-on markets higher. Since that high, Bitcoin has pulled back over 4% as bears defended key liquidation levels. This pullback was entirely crypto-specific, as traditional markets across both risk-on and risk-off assets have risen over the last 24 hours. Bears are now holding critical price levels. If these are lost, we could see major short squeezes that would wipe out billions of dollars in short positions on Binance alone.

The first level that would trigger over $1 billion in short liquidations sits just under $108.5K. Another $1 billion would be wiped out at $112K. Between these two levels, short positions are relatively thin. This means that if bulls can successfully clear $108.5K, we could see a fast and sharp move toward the next challenge at $112K before bears put up resistance again. A clean reclaim of $112K would give structural and momentum control back to the bulls while also inflicting serious damage on the bears.

Once $112K is taken, all momentum shifts to the bulls. Another $2 billion would be wiped out if Bitcoin reclaims $118K, bringing total short liquidations to over $4 billion at current levels on Binance alone. Of course, this number would increase as new short positions are added or as bears sell further into price strength in an attempt to suppress the rally. But we may be setting up for the reverse of last month’s black swan event. While it may not be as violent or as large as the $20 billion collapse, it would still mark a significant shift. Some are already calling it a white swan.

Now for something a bit different — the McRib. Yes, a McDonald’s menu item has made its way into Stormrake’s Morning Note. But for good reason. McDonald’s has announced the return of the McRib, and interestingly, each time it has returned, Bitcoin has gone on to post strong bullish moves. As shown in the chart below:

Historically, Bitcoin has at least doubled following the McRib’s return. Will it do so again? We will have to wait and see.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.45)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Rxt7qrh3/

HYPE lost nearly 7% after failing to break above the 21EMA, with resistance proving too much for the bulls. It was not helped by Bitcoin’s weakness either. HYPE must hold above $35.35, the recent higher low, to prevent bears from fully reclaiming structural control. With momentum already in their favour, the bears are likely to drive price lower if this level is lost.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/WyTYJdn9/

The intraday reversal from the high of $107.5K has dealt a real blow to the bulls. Bears regained momentum and broke below the key support at $104K, which had previously acted as strong resistance on the way up. With bearish momentum now in play, a drop below $101.5K would confirm structural control for the bears, which would not be good news for the bulls.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 11 Oct: + $24.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.