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Rake Review: July 2026

Thu, 30 Jul 2026 19:12:01 +1000

Clarity, Confirmation, and the Cycle Low

If July has had a defining narrative, it is this one. The CLARITY Act, the bill designed to finally draw a clear line between which digital assets fall under the SEC and which fall under the CFTC, has been the single biggest story sitting underneath this month's price action, even as the headline number stayed relatively calm.

The Journey for Clarity

What the Clarity Act Actually Does

At its core, the bill splits crypto assets into two regulatory lanes. Assets that behave more like decentralised commodities, Bitcoin being the clearest example, would fall under the CFTC. Assets that behave more like traditional investment contracts would stay with the SEC. If you want the full breakdown of what those two regulators actually do and why crypto has never fit neatly into either box, that is this month's Education topic below. For now, the market-relevant point is simpler: a market that finally knows its own rules tends to attract the kind of institutional money that has been sitting on the sidelines for years, not because it did not want in, but because compliance teams could not sign off on something with no clear rulebook.

Where the Odds Actually Sit

The bill passed the House comfortably back in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in mid-May this year, and has been sitting on the Senate's calendar since. Two separate prediction market questions are worth tracking here, because they are answering different things.

The first asks a narrower, procedural question: will the Senate actually hold a recorded vote before Congress leaves for its August recess. That number has been on a wild ride through July. It was above 80% on 20 July, spiked toward 72% mid-month on news that the White House had agreed on ethics language, and has since fallen back to around 40% as Senate Majority Leader John Thune has publicly said he does not expect the bill to be done in time. That is a fast, sentiment-driven number, and it moves on headlines almost daily.

The second, broader question is whether crypto market structure legislation actually becomes law this year at all, which is a higher bar than simply getting a vote. That contract is currently pricing somewhere in the high 30s to low 40s percent for 2026 enactment, down materially from the 80%-plus odds seen back in February. If 2026 does not happen, the same markets show meaningfully better odds further out, in the region of 50 to 60% for enactment sometime before mid to late 2027.

What This Actually Means

Put simply: the market is currently pricing this as a coin flip on getting done this year, and a reasonably good bet on getting done eventually. That is a very different setup to a bill that is definitely happening or definitely dead, and it explains why price action around Clarity headlines has been sharp but short-lived rather than sustained, the market genuinely does not know yet, and neither does anyone else. Worth watching the procedural vote closely over the next fortnight, since a miss there effectively pushes the realistic timeline for this catalyst into next year.

A Familiar Shape: The Late 2023 ETF Rally

The setup has an echo worth drawing out. Through the second half of 2023, Bitcoin ran hard on the back of anticipation for a spot ETF approval that had not yet happened. The market was not reacting to the event itself, it was reacting to the increasing probability of the event, pricing in the outcome well before Washington delivered it.

The timing difference between the two setups is the part worth sitting with. The 2022 cycle low was set in November of that year, and the ETF approval did not land until January 2024, close to fourteen months later. The rally on approval expectations built steadily through most of that gap. Where we sit today is a different point in the cycle entirely. We are still inside the bear market, likely in the process of forming this cycle's low rather than well clear of it, which means a Clarity Act driven rally, if the bill does pass, would be arriving far earlier relative to the bottom than the ETF rally did. That is not a reason to write off the narrative. It is a reason to treat it as one leg of the recovery story rather than the whole of it, with the more traditional macro and cycle drivers still needing to do the rest of the work behind it.

The Bullish Case, and Its Limits

The optimistic read is straightforward: regulatory clarity tends to unlock capital that compliance and legal risk had previously kept out, particularly from institutions that have been openly waiting for exactly this kind of framework before committing meaningfully. A passed Clarity Act would be a structural tailwind, not a one-off headline, the kind of catalyst that changes the addressable pool of capital rather than just sentiment for a news cycle.

The honest counterweight is that the bill is not law yet, current odds put this year's passage closer to a coin flip than a certainty, and a market that has partly priced in passage carries real disappointment risk if the vote slips into next year. Worth watching alongside price, not worth trading purely on hope.

The mechanics of why this split even needs legislating, and what the SEC and CFTC actually do differently, are worth understanding properly rather than taking on faith. That is what this month's Education section digs into.

Forming a bottom

We are entering the stage of the cycle where the conversation has to shift from "are we still falling" to "have we already found the floor." Every prior Bitcoin cycle has followed a remarkably consistent rhythm from peak to trough, and on that rhythm alone, we are now deep into the window where cycle lows have historically formed.

Timing: Where We Sit Against History

Bitcoin's all time high of $126,272 was set in October 2025. That puts us roughly nine months on from the peak as of this review. Stack that against the last three major cycle troughs:

2021 to 2022: twelve months from the November 2021 all time high to the November 2022 cycle low
2017 to 2018: twelve months from the December 2017 all time high to the December 2018 cycle low
2013 to 2015: around thirteen months from the November 2013 all time high to the January 2015 cycle low

Nine months in, we are not yet at the outer edge of that historical window, but we are firmly inside it. If this cycle rhymes with the last three, the low is either recently behind us or still just a few months away.

It is also worth noting what those three windows have in common beyond their length. In each case, the trough was not obvious as it happened. The 2022 low coincided with the FTX collapse, the 2018 low ground out through a dead, directionless December, and the January 2015 low arrived with almost no fanfare at all, just a slow bleed that eventually stopped. None of them announced themselves. They were only identifiable in hindsight, usually weeks or months after the fact, which is exactly why waiting for confirmation is structurally expensive: by the time the bottom is obvious, a meaningful chunk of the recovery has typically already happened.

Our own confirmed cycle low so far this quarter sits at $57,800. Whether that print holds as the definitive low for this cycle is not something we can call with certainty yet. What we can say is that its timing, roughly eight to nine months off the October all-time high, sits comfortably inside the historical range rather than ahead of or behind it. That is the entire point of raising it now rather than after the fact. History does not repeat on a fixed clock, but it has never missed this window by much either.

The Cost of Waiting for Confirmation

Nobody can promise the exact day the bottom is printed. What can be shown clearly is the mathematics of what waiting for that certainty actually costs.

Using $200,000 as the target for the next bull run, the multiple on offer shrinks fast the longer confirmation is awaited:

The pattern is the point, not the precision of any single number. Every $10,000 of price recovery that happens before conviction sets in is a meaningful bite out of the eventual multiple, and that erosion is not linear, it is steepest right where we sit today. The jump from $65,000 to $75,000 alone costs close to half a turn of multiple. Wait for the price to climb another $10,000 past that as proof the bottom is in, and the round trip to $200,000 has already shrunk from roughly triple your money to barely two and a half times it, before a single dollar of new conviction has actually been earned.

This cuts both ways, and it is worth being upfront about the other side of the trade. Entering early into what still could be a further leg down carries its own risk, and a level like $57,800 acting as the low is not guaranteed. That is precisely why this is a question of risk and reward rather than a call to catch an exact bottom. Scaling in through this zone, rather than waiting for a single all-clear signal, is one way of participating in the asymmetry without needing to be right about the exact week the low prints. The broader point stands regardless of the entry method: certainty and price move in opposite directions, and the wait for one is a direct cost against the other.

July's Bitcoin Performance Leads Into August's No Man's Land

The aforementioned narrative of the Clarity Act dominated the month and saw Bitcoin put in its first green month since April, very much needed to stem the bleeding of the current bear market.

But a late bearish narrative has seemingly put a halt on the momentum, as a Bloomberg headline hit timelines flagging a chance of a late month interest rate hike.

The month started with a new cycle low at $57,800, but from that moment July turned it around and began to climb, starting conversations of the bottom potentially being in or very close, which we have addressed above.

Whilst the month is green, it doesn't necessarily mean the end of the bear market. The green price action needs to continue into August and push on higher to create a higher high, which hasn't been achieved since the all time high in October.

Now let's dive into the current structure and what we can expect, but also look at what Bitcoin needs to achieve in August.

Unfortunately for August, it is one of two bearish months on average for Bitcoin (the other being September). August has an average return of -0.64% and has delivered 10 red months of the last 15 Augusts.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/SHtiszJT/

There are two clear levels to watch for August. On the downside, the current cycle low of $57,800 sits 10% away from current price. The immediate upside level to watch is $67,000, currently ~5% away from current price, which was July's high and the most recent lower high.

Momentum leans slightly bearish, but can be considered 51/49 in favour of the downside, having been quite flat throughout July. In other words, Bitcoin is in no man's land, up for the taking by either side.

In the News

BitMart and BitMEX Both Announce Shutdowns

Two established names in crypto are closing their doors within days of each other. BitMEX, one of the oldest exchanges in the industry and the first to offer derivative trading in crypto, announced it will wind down by 23 September, ending an eleven year run in which it effectively invented the perpetual futures contract, the leveraged product that became the backbone of nearly every exchange's derivatives business. BitMart followed three days later, halting new registrations and deposits from 26 July with a full closure targeted for 26 August, making it the third notable exchange closure this month after AscendEX. Neither closure has been linked to insolvency, a hack, or regulatory enforcement, and the more likely explanation is structural: the mid-tier exchange model has been running on thinning volume for some time, and a prolonged bear market tends to be exactly when that gap finally becomes unsustainable, a cleanout of weaker infrastructure rather than a fresh warning sign. Worth remembering regardless, exchange risk does not announce itself in advance, and eleven years of history was no guarantee against BitMEX's eventual wind-down.

The Headline Fakeout: Rate Decision

As we now know, the potential rate hike headlines hurt bullish momentum, and when the decision came, rates remained unchanged, with Warsh delivering a hawkish message that reinforced the central bank's focus on fighting persistent inflation. Warsh emphasised that the Fed has no soft inflation target and remains resolute in restoring price stability to 2%, making it clear that interest rate cuts are off the table for now and keeping the door open for potential future rate hikes if price pressures remain elevated. Highlighted by three dissents on the committee favouring an immediate 25 basis point hike, the meeting signalled that monetary policy will stay tighter for longer, dampening expectations for near term easing.

SpaceX Comes Back Down to Earth

Last month the largest IPO in history launched. Not only did it dominate headlines, it also extracted liquidity from every other market as investors tried to pile into the most hyped launch ever. SpaceX opened at $135 and within a few days reached a high of $225. Fast forward to the end of July, it is now trading at $112, 50% lost in less than two months. It goes to show how quickly price action can unwind once the hype fades.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in July 2026:

Bitcoin increased by 9%
Ethereum increased by 21%
XRP increased by 3.43%
Hyperliquid fell by 17.2%
The total crypto market cap increased by 7.50%

Video of the month

Sovereignty Brief Ep 6: Navigating Common Investor Mistakes with Brody Chatfield

Bisher Khudeira and Brody Chatfield

Education: SEC vs CFTC, Explained Simply

Every month the Clarity Act story keeps coming back to the same two letters: SEC and CFTC. This Rake Review has covered what the bill means for markets, but it is worth actually unpacking what these two regulators are and why the distinction between them exists in the first place.

Two Regulators, Two Very Different Jobs

The Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC, was built to oversee securities. In plain terms, a security is typically something you buy expecting profit from someone else's effort, a share in a company, a bond, an investment contract. The SEC's job is investor protection: making sure companies disclose accurate information and that promoters cannot mislead the people buying in.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the CFTC, oversees commodities and their derivatives instead. Commodities are raw, interchangeable goods, things like gold, oil, or wheat, where the value comes from the asset itself rather than from a company or a team working behind it. The CFTC's traditional focus has been on futures and derivatives markets built around those commodities, rather than on the underlying asset itself.

Why Crypto Fell Into a Grey Area

Bitcoin does not fit neatly into either box on paper, and law written decades before crypto existed was never going to answer the question cleanly. Is a decentralised network with no company behind it and no promoter making promises about future profit a security, or is it closer to a commodity like gold, valuable simply because it is scarce and useful? Regulators, courts, and the industry itself have disagreed on this for years, and in the absence of a clear answer, enforcement has often ended up deciding the question after the fact, asset by asset, case by case, through lawsuits rather than legislation.

That is the practical cost of the grey area. Exchanges have had to guess which assets might later be deemed securities and pulled listings defensively. Institutions with compliance obligations have stayed out entirely rather than take on legal risk with no clear rulebook. Everyday users have had a harder time understanding what protections, if any, actually apply to what they hold.

What the Clarity Act Is Trying to Fix

The Clarity Act's core job is to draw that line properly into law rather than leaving it to be argued out case by case. Assets that behave like decentralised commodities, without a company or promoter controlling them, would sit under the CFTC. Assets that behave more like traditional investment contracts would stay with the SEC. Nothing about the underlying assets changes, what changes is that everyone, exchanges, institutions, and everyday holders alike, would finally know which rulebook applies before acting rather than finding out after an enforcement action.

That is the entire reason this bill matters as much as it does to market sentiment, it is not really a story about any single asset, it is a story about removing the guesswork that has quietly shaped which capital has been willing to enter the market at all.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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Rake Review: June 2026

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 17:53:59 +1000

When the Noise Became the Signal

June 2026 did not whisper. The world's biggest IPO sucked billions out of risk assets, Michael Saylor broke his four-year vow and sold Bitcoin for the first time, a new Fed Chair signalled rates may go higher before they go lower, and Bitcoin posted its worst monthly performance since the Luna/Terra collapse of 2022. For once, the noise and the signal were pointing in exactly the same direction.

The Biggest IPO Just Happened and Bitcoin Paid for It

Most people outside of finance have heard of SpaceX. Elon Musk's rocket company, responsible for sending astronauts to the International Space Station and building the Starlink satellite internet network, has for years been one of the most talked about private companies in the world. In June, it stopped being private. On June 12, SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker SPCX, raising $75 billion in what became the largest stock market debut in history. For context, the previous record was held by Saudi Aramco, which raised around $25 billion when it went public in 2019. SpaceX more than tripled it.

The excitement was enormous. Investor orders to buy shares exceeded $250 billion, roughly four times the amount SpaceX was actually selling, meaning the vast majority of people who tried to get in at the IPO price were turned away. The stock gained 19% on its first day and briefly pushed SpaceX's total value past $2 trillion. So what does any of this have to do with Bitcoin?

When a company raises $75 billion from investors, that money has to come from somewhere. Investors, both everyday people and large institutions, had to sell other things they owned to free up cash to buy SpaceX shares. And one of the assets people sold to raise that cash was Bitcoin. SpaceX effectively became a liquidity black hole, drawing risk capital that would otherwise have stayed in digital assets. This is called capital rotation, and it is one of the main reasons Bitcoin fell so heavily through June.

There is a twist worth knowing about. SpaceX's public filing revealed the company holds 18,712 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, worth approximately $1.29 billion. That makes SpaceX one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin in the world. The company that caused so much selling pressure in Bitcoin actually owns a significant amount of it. Every person who bought a SpaceX share in June now has indirect Bitcoin exposure, whether they realise it or not. And as SpaceX gets added to major stock market indices, thousands of index funds and pension funds that buy the stock will also be indirectly buying Bitcoin through SpaceX's treasury.

The deeper issue for Bitcoin this month was not just the money leaving, it was the attention leaving. SpaceX offered investors rockets, global internet, and artificial intelligence all in one stock. In a market where people chase whatever is exciting, Bitcoin simply cannot match the fresh story around SpaceX. For the better part of two years, Bitcoin was the most exciting trade in markets. That crown has been passed, at least for now, to AI stocks and space companies. SpaceX itself pulled back sharply after its debut, falling from an intraday high of $225 to around $153 by the end of the month, but by then the damage to Bitcoin sentiment had already been done.

The longer term picture is more positive, and there is a concrete reason for that. Capital rotation works in both directions. The same investors who sold Bitcoin to buy SpaceX shares will eventually look for the next opportunity, and Bitcoin, sitting at multi-month lows and testing its most historically significant long term support level, will be difficult to ignore. The IPO frenzy that hurt Bitcoin in June is temporary. The 18,712 Bitcoin now sitting on SpaceX's balance sheet, quietly embedded inside thousands of index funds and pension portfolios around the world, is permanent.

The Saylor Thesis Meets Gravity

If you have spent any time following Bitcoin over the past few years, you will have heard of Michael Saylor. He is the co-founder and executive chairman of a company called Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, and he has built one of the most recognisable positions in crypto by doing one thing relentlessly: buying Bitcoin with every dollar he can get his hands on.

Strategy does not mine Bitcoin. It does not run an exchange. Its entire identity, since 2020, has been to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible and hold it forever. To fund those purchases, the company has raised billions of dollars by issuing shares and debt products to investors. The pitch has always been simple: Bitcoin goes up over time, and owning a lot of it, acquired with borrowed and raised capital, produces extraordinary returns.

June tested that pitch.

On June 1, Strategy revealed it had sold 32 Bitcoin for approximately $2.5 million. It was the first time the company had sold any Bitcoin in four years. Now, 32 Bitcoin is not a lot. Strategy still held 843,706 coins after the sale, making it a fraction of a percent of their total position. But Saylor had said publicly, many times, that he would never sell. The moment he did, even a tiny amount, people started asking questions.

The reason for the sale was to pay a dividend to investors in one of Strategy's financial products, called STRC. This is essentially a type of investment that Strategy sells to raise cash, promising regular dividend payments in return. As Strategy has taken on more of these obligations, the bills have grown. Annual dividend payments have risen from around $300 million at the start of 2026 to $1.2 billion today, while the company's cash reserves have fallen 38% over the same period.

At the same time, Bitcoin's price has dropped well below what Strategy paid for most of its coins. The average price Strategy paid across its entire Bitcoin holding is around $75,500 per coin. With Bitcoin trading in the low $60,000s through much of June, the company is sitting on an unrealised loss of approximately $10.6 billion. That does not mean Strategy is in immediate trouble, unrealised losses are paper losses until you sell, but it does mean the financial pressure is real and growing.

Saylor's public response was to post on X: "Volatility tests every capital structure. Strategy remains focused on Bitcoin, disciplined capital allocation, credit quality, and long term value creation." Characteristically unfazed. His supporters point out that Strategy survived a worse situation in 2022, when Bitcoin fell below $16,000, and never had to sell. His critics point out that the company's obligations are significantly larger today than they were back then.

The honest answer is that nobody knows exactly how this plays out. If Bitcoin recovers strongly in the second half of 2026, Strategy's balance sheet improves quickly and the concerns fade. If Bitcoin stays flat or falls further, the pressure to sell coins to meet obligations becomes harder to ignore, and a forced sale from the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder would create significant additional selling in the market.

There is one further development worth watching. Saylor has long positioned Strategy as a Bitcoin-only vehicle, but the financial pressure building on the balance sheet may force a rethink of that mandate. Speculation is growing that Strategy could begin diversifying its treasury into other hard assets, with gold the most likely candidate. If that happens, it would represent a significant shift in the Strategy story, and a tacit acknowledgement that a single-asset treasury model carries more risk than the narrative has historically admitted.

What June made clear is that the easy part of the Saylor trade is behind us. The thesis is not broken. Bitcoin has recovered from worse, and Strategy has survived deeper drawdowns than this one. But the risks are now visible in a way they were not twelve months ago, and visible risks have a habit of demanding attention before they resolve. The second half of 2026 will go a long way toward determining whether June was the moment the thesis was tested, or the moment it began to crack.

Price Performance: Breaking Down the Worst Month Since 2022

June broke what had been building for the majority of the year the classic bear market pattern known as the bear flag. This was the worst month for Bitcoin since June 2022, with Bitcoin losing nearly 19% from the open of the month to the close.

The month kicked off with a confirmed break of the bear flag, which triggered the next leg lower and the sustained bearish price action we saw throughout June. A major driver of sentiment this month was Michael Saylor and Strategy. When Strategy disclosed it had sold 32 Bitcoin the first sale in four years it shattered the narrative that Saylor was an unconditional, never sell accumulator. The market had priced Strategy as a permanent demand floor. The moment that assumption broke, confidence cracked with it, and the selling accelerated.

With the bears clearly in control, the bear flag pattern targets the mid to low $50,000 region as the next area of interest.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/4e3Du4wC/

Despite June historically being one of Bitcoin's stronger months averaging an 8.24% return across nine green Junes in the last 16 years this year told a very different story, and one with a familiar feel.

June 2022 was also Bitcoin's worst month of that year, occurring in the aftermath of the Luna Terra collapse in May 2022, which was the first major blow of the previous bear market. This June drew extreme parallels to that period. The Luna collapse came seven months after Bitcoin's prior all time high. The current June drawdown has come eight months after the October 2025 all time high of $128,198. When the prior June collapse occurred, the market was closer to the end of the bear market than the beginning and that is what we are anticipating to be the case now.

We go much deeper into the outlook for the next few months in the Stormrake Q3 2026 Outlook, which you can find in the section below.

In the News

Stormrake Quarter 3 Outlook: The Final Washout

We have just released our Stormrake Quarter 3 2026 Outlook, titled 'The Final Washout'. The report covers the next three months of Bitcoin price action, where we think Bitcoin is headed, what is likely to drive it, and where we believe we currently sit in the broader market cycle. If you have been following Bitcoin through what has been a brutal June and want to understand what comes next, this is the place to start. You can find the full report in the section here. It is a must read for those looking to accumulate Bitcoin at a discount…

Read the Full Outlook Here

The US Iran War Is Winding Down And Oil Is Feeling It

Earlier this year, US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes. Brent crude surged from around $72 per barrel at the outset of the conflict to above $118 by late April, pushing inflation higher and forcing central banks to shelve any near term plans to cut interest rates. June brought meaningful relief. On June 18, the US and Iran signed an interim peace agreement, and oil prices fell sharply, with Brent dropping back toward $77 per barrel. By June 24, WTI had fallen below $70 per barrel for the first time since the war began. The ceasefire remains fragile and a permanent deal is far from done, but the direction of travel is positive. For Bitcoin, falling oil means falling inflation, which means the path to interest rate cuts reopens and cheaper money has historically been one of the most reliable tailwinds Bitcoin has ever had.

The New Fed Chair Just Made His First Call and It Was Not What Trump Wanted

Trump replaced Jerome Powell with Kevin Warsh in May 2026, widely expecting a more rate cut friendly Fed. On June 17, Warsh chaired his first meeting and voted unanimously to hold rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. The bigger story was what came alongside it. Nine of the 18 voting members now support a rate hike before the end of 2026, a sharp reversal from March, when not a single policymaker had pencilled one in. Warsh also scrapped the Fed's longstanding practice of forward guidance, removing any hint of where rates are heading next. Stocks fell immediately after the statement dropped. For Bitcoin, the message is simple: rate cuts historically one of the strongest tailwinds for crypto have been pushed even further down the road.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in June 2026:

Bitcoin lost 19% in June.
Ethereum fell by 21% in June.
Hyperliquid created a new all time high at $76.70 but since retraced 20%.
PAX Gold lost 12% in June.
The total crypto market cap fell by 17%.

Video of the month

Sovereignty Brief Ep 1 -Who's holding your keys?

Bisher Khudeira and Michael Milmeister

Education: The 200 Week Moving Average

If you have been following Bitcoin through June, you will have seen a lot of commentary about something called the 200 week moving average. It has been mentioned constantly, and for good reason, Bitcoin spent much of this month right on top of it. So what is it, and why does everyone care so much?

Let's start simple. A moving average is just the average price of something over a set period of time. If you wanted to know Bitcoin's average price over the last ten days, you would add up the closing price from each of those days and divide by ten. That gives you a number, the average. Do the same calculation every day, updating it as new prices come in, and you get a line on a chart that smooths out the daily ups and downs and shows you the general direction things are heading.

The 200 week moving average does exactly that, but instead of using daily prices, it uses weekly prices, and instead of ten periods, it uses 200. That means it is calculating the average price of Bitcoin across the last 200 weeks, which works out to nearly four years of data in a single number.

Because it covers so much history, the line moves very slowly. It does not react to Bitcoin having a bad day, or even a bad month. It only really shifts when Bitcoin has been going in a particular direction for a long time. That makes it one of the most reliable tools for understanding where Bitcoin sits in its long term cycle, as opposed to its short term noise.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/b3xm73ie/

On June 4, Bitcoin tagged this line for the first time in this current cycle, with the moving average sitting near $62,600. That is why June felt significant to a lot of people watching the market. It was not just another bad month, it was Bitcoin arriving at the level that has historically signalled a floor.

The important thing to understand is that the 200 week moving average is not a guarantee. It is a pattern, not a rule. After breaching the line in June 2022, Bitcoin spent roughly 16 months below it before recovering. Touching it does not automatically mean the bottom is in. What it does mean is that Bitcoin has entered the kind of territory where, historically, patient long term buyers have been rewarded.

The cleanest signal to watch for is a weekly candle closing back above the line after touching it. That reclaim, price dipping to the average and then recovering above it, is what has marked the start of the next recovery in previous cycles.

For anyone who is relatively new to Bitcoin and feeling anxious watching the price sit in the high $50,000s and low $60,000s, the 200 week moving average is the context that matters most right now. It is not a reason to panic. If anything, it is the level where the most experienced long term holders in the market tend to get interested.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Rake Review: May 2026

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 16:09:53 +1000

Why the Most Critical Shifts Happen in Silence

Human nature watches the noise, but true paradigm shifts occur in the quiet. May 2026 proved this. While casual observers focused on price compression, a massive structural re-alignment spanning a new Fed Chair, the CLARITY Act, and spot Hyperliquid ETFs quietly codified the next era of capital.

The Accumulation Zone: Wealth is Built in the Quiet

Human nature is fundamentally wired to celebrate the spectacular. We gravitate toward the dramatic breakout candles, the explosive all-time highs, and the euphoric media coverage that accompanies a roaring bull market. It is easy to buy into a narrative when every headline confirms your bias and your portfolio greens by the hour.

But the grand illusion of the financial markets is that wealth is created during these loud, celebratory moments. It is not. Wealth is simply realised then. The actual building of generational positions occurs in the quiet, uncomfortable periods of structural transition, long before the rest of the world notices that the ground has shifted.

Think back to the opening months of the year. The market was characterised by deep fatigue, weak positioning was ruthlessly washed out, and a multi-month correction tested the absolute limits of investor discipline. The reactive capital stayed safely frozen on the sidelines, waiting for a definitive signal or a return to comfortable market conditions.

Yet, history consistently demonstrates that comfort and asymmetric opportunity cannot coexist. By the time a market looks entirely safe and certain, the discount has already evaporated.

Instead of looking for the single, exact bottom of the market, strategic investors view these periods as a Bottoming Zone to accumulate within. Consider the historical context of 2022. During that cycle low, Bitcoin traded between $15k and $25k for months. Similarly, Bitcoin has spent the last three months stuck in a consolidation range between $60k and $80k. Whilst the nominal range in 2022 may seem smaller, spanning just a $10k range, it was actually much larger percentage wise than the current setup, representing a 66% expansion from its floor. By contrast, the current $20k range is a much tighter 33% compression.

We are currently living through one of those rare, quiet structural shifts. The exhaustion of the bears is no longer just a technical theory; it is a visible reality on the charts. While the casual observer remains distracted by day to day noise, strategic capital has spent the last few weeks absorbing supply and positioning ahead of a changing global paradigm. True financial sovereignty requires the willingness to embrace near term uncertainty in exchange for long term upside. The windows of opportunity in this asset class close far quicker than most expect, and those who wait for a perfectly clear horizon will inevitably find themselves chasing momentum at significantly higher prices.

The Washington Consensus: Warsh Takes the Fed as CLARITY Clears the Senate

For years, the primary structural barrier to entry for institutional capital in the United States was a hostile, fragmented regulatory environment. Trillions of dollars in sidelined capital remained locked away simply because legacy allocators could not take on the legal risk of an undefined asset class. In May 2026, that regulatory gridlock officially broke.

The shift is being driven by a simultaneous political and monetary changing of the guard, starting with the leadership transition at the nation's central bank. The US Senate officially confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve in a highly contentious 54-45 vote. Warsh steps into the role with a historically pro-innovation stance on digital assets, famously viewing Bitcoin as a direct challenge to fiat currency mismanagement in past public statements.

Whilst President Trump has been loudly calling for lower interest rates, and Warsh has publicly aligned himself with the administration by criticising Powell's past policy choices, a reality check is already playing out. Resurgent wholesale inflation has pinned the Fed into a corner. Consequently, the market is currently pricing in a 99% probability that the Fed maintains interest rates steady at the upcoming June meeting. Furthermore, the likelihood of a rate cut occurring at any point this year sits at just 31%, as Wall Street increasingly bets that rates will remain on hold until at least December. So, even though Warsh has flipped dovish recently to match White House rhetoric, it is highly unlikely we see any cuts during his first few months as Fed Chair.

However, for the digital asset space, the presence of a crypto friendly Fed Chair is a massive structural win, and the momentum on Capitol Hill did not stop there.

Coinciding with this monetary transition, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) successfully cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a historic 15-9 bipartisan vote. The significance of this milestone cannot be overstated. Having already passed the House of Representatives, the bill has moved one step closer to becoming law, establishing the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets in US history.

The CLARITY Act provides the exact regulatory roadmap Wall Street has spent years demanding. It draws an unambiguous line between SEC and CFTC jurisdictions, introducing a "mature blockchain test" that allows tokens to safely transition from investment contracts into decentralised digital commodities overseen by the CFTC. Crucially, the framework goes beyond corporate structuring to provide explicit legal protections for self-custody wallets and non-custodial DeFi software developers, effectively protecting individual sovereignty from government overreach. When you pair a pro-innovation central bank leader with a statutory framework that eliminates legal risk, the message to global finance is clear: the infrastructure for the next era of capital is officially being codified.

Price Performance: Technical Compression and the Final Bear Stretch

May looked to build on what March and April had laid the foundation for, attempting to spark a bullish reversal and officially transition out of the multi-month bear market phase. The month certainly started well, with Bitcoin putting on 8% to reach its highest point since January at just shy of $83,000. Unfortunately, that upside momentum fell right into the bears' hands and actually strengthened their overall control as the month progressed.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Pd3g5RZ/

The remainder of May was a difficult period for the market. Bitcoin went on to confirm a lower high to reinforce the prevailing bearish structure on the daily chart. Price action faced heavy overhead resistance at the 200 moving averages, completely rejecting the bulls' bet for a sustained breakout and sending Bitcoin back down into the confines of a prominent bear flag pattern. This technical structure remains the main danger zone for potential lower prices, particularly with a bearish moving average cross about to occur, signaling that the bears are locking in their near term momentum.

Looking forward, June has historically been a highly reliable and bullish month for Bitcoin. Over the last 15 years, June has delivered an average return of 7.54%, closing green in nine of those annual periods. If Bitcoin aligns with this historical average move next month, it would take price back up just shy of the vital resistance level at $80,000, a key psychological zone that now also has the descending 200 moving averages reinforcing it as a heavy supply ceiling.

With the bears firmly back in control and potentially lower prices on the cards for the opening weeks of June, the strategic Bottoming Zone mentioned earlier must remain at the absolute forefront of your mind when allocating capital. This period is highly likely to be the final stretch of the bear market. Once this structural accumulation phase inevitably ends, market prices will be significantly higher, and those investors who had the discipline to systematically build exposure within this zone will be thanking themselves for doing so.

In the News

Hyperliquid Spot ETF:

The structural shift towards 24/7 on-chain financial infrastructure achieved a massive institutional milestone in May 2026, with the official debut of the first spot Hyperliquid (HYPE) exchange-traded funds on US public markets. Led by the launch of the 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) on 12 May and the Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP) on 15 May, the category has completely blindsided traditional finance analysts by attracting over $95 million in cumulative net inflows within its first two weeks of trading. BHYP led the charge with a massive $19.04 million single-day purchase on 26 May, driving total collective assets under management across the U.S. listed HYPE ETFs to roughly $117 million. Highlighting this rapid institutional shift, daily momentum reached such a fever pitch that the HYPE ETF officially overtook the entire US spot Ethereum ETF market in 24 hour net inflows recently. A major catalyst for HYPEs dominant price performance in May.

Abolishing the Discount: The 2026 Australian Budget:

The Albanese government handed down the new Federal Budget, introducing major tax changes that directly impact local investors. Most notably, the long standing 50% Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount will be completely abolished on 1 July 2027 for assets held longer than 12 months. It will be replaced by a basic indexation method tied to inflation, alongside a strict 30% minimum tax rate on net capital gains. Because Bitcoin and digital assets historically grow at rates far outpacing inflation, this change means a significantly higher tax bill for Aussie crypto investors compared to the old flat discount.

Presidential Influence Triggers Historic Corporate Stock Rallies

A fascinating trend in May 2026 was the sheer power of political rhetoric over stock prices, proving that verbal endorsements can completely override standard analysis. On 22 May, President Trump publicly praised Micron Technology at a rally; on the 27th of May, the stock jumped 20%. Even more impressive was Dell Technologies, which Trump told consumers to go out and buy on 8 May. Dell was subsequently awarded a massive US government contract on 27 May and reported stellar corporate earnings on 28 May, sending the stock up another 30% in late trading. In total, Dell has surged 80% since that single comment on 8 May, giving digital asset allocators a clear lesson that tracking regulatory and political alignment is often far more critical than simply staring at technical chart patterns alone.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in May 2026:

Bitcoin lost 3.57% in May.
Ethereum fell by 11.2% in May.
Hyperliquid has climbed by over 80% in May and replaces DOGE in the Top 10.
PAXG lost 1.90% in May.
The total crypto market cap fell by 2.2%.

Video of the month

Australia Rewards Asset Owners - Everyone Else Falls Behind

Mark Di Paola and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Understanding Digital Asset Spot ETFs

What Is An Institutional ETF?

For everyday investors navigating the digital asset space, understanding the mechanics of institutional capital is vital to reading the broader market trend. At its core, a spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a traditional financial vehicle designed to give legacy allocators a familiar channel to gain exposure to digital assets directly through their existing stockbroker accounts. It acts as a bridge between the legacy financial system and the on-chain economy, removing the technical hurdles of managing cryptographic keys and self custody for large institutions that are bound by strict corporate mandates.

Do They Actually Buy The Asset?

A common question among market participants is whether these funds actually buy the underlying asset. The answer is yes, on a strict one to one basis. When capital flows into a spot ETF, the fund manager is legally obligated to buy the physical asset directly from spot desks to back the newly issued shares. Conversely, when outflows occur, the manager must sell the asset on the open market to meet redemptions.

How Can This Be Used As A Price Indicator?

Because of this direct physical relationship, ETF flow data functions as a highly reliable indicator for price performance. Institutional desks and large fund managers command massive blocks of liquidity and often deploy capital well ahead of retail cycles. When we observe heavy, consecutive daily inflows accompanied by a price rally, it confirms that structural, smart money demand is actively driving the move. Conversely, sustained net outflows typically explain a softer, distribution phase on the charts where selling pressure is dominant.

Why Spot Ownership Beats An ETF Product

However, from an educational perspective, it is critical to distinguish between buying an ETF product and owning physical spot crypto. When you invest in an ETF, you do not own the asset itself. Instead, you hold a financial product that tracks the price, effectively leaving you with an ongoing counterparty contract or paper representation of the asset. This structural asset proxy comes with ongoing management fees, and it confines your liquidity strictly to traditional stock market hours.

True monetary freedom and the real value of an asset like Bitcoin can only be accessed through direct physical ownership. With spot ownership, you hold the actual asset in your own custody, completely free from ongoing management fees and institutional counterparty risk. You gain full price exposure alongside the total permissionless portability that defines the digital asset revolution, ensuring you hold a sovereign wealth asset rather than a traditional financial product

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Smart Money Buys the Dip as Bitcoin Hits $80K

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 18:41:32 +1100

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After breaking below the key $88K level, Bitcoin virtually teleported down to $80K in less than 24 hours. While most of the market panics, with the Fear & Greed Index crashing back down to 11 in extreme fear, smart money is quietly dollar cost averaging into these levels.

The liquidity crunch continues. It’s not just crypto facing selling pressure, even precious metals are cooling off. Gold has now posted two consecutive red days as it fights to stay above $4,000, while silver is pulling back from all time high territory and potentially flashing bearish signals with a double top forming.

This broad based selloff is being driven by institutions offloading assets to repay yen denominated debt, as rising yields in Japan drive up borrowing costs. But in a surprising twist, there’s some good news. The probability of a US rate cut next month has surged to 71%, a major swing from just 33% only two days ago after the FOMC minutes. This shift has come off the back of fresh dovish commentary from Federal Reserve member Williams.

While the market pulls back, smart money continues to DCA and take advantage of these lower prices. Retail tends to do the opposite, buying at highs and panic selling at lows. A consistent DCA strategy allows investors to lower their average entry price over time rather than sitting on the sidelines waiting for the impossible task of picking the bottom. Remember, only one person buys the bottom. Those who DCA understand that time in the market beats timing the market. The old virtue still rings true.

At Stormrake, we’re strong advocates of DCA as it not only takes advantages of lower prices but also removes emotions from investing, which is a major hinderance for most. We offer a dedicated DCA service. If you’re looking to join the smart money and take advantage of current price action, contact your Stormrake broker today.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($34.19)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/xaR2caCo/

As we highlighted yesterday, HYPE was approaching a decision point, bullish trendline support versus bearish 21EMA resistance. Unfortunately for the bulls, the bears have reclaimed control, with HYPE dropping nearly 10% yesterday. For long term believers, this could present a prime opportunity to DCA.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/svIzoYDh/

On the surface, Bitcoin fell less than 2% yesterday. However, that decline was cushioned by a bounce off a key support level at $81.6K. Bulls defended this zone well, halting the bleed and kicking BTC back above $85K. Price is now back at the 21EMA, a level that has consistently acted as resistance with bulls struggling to break above it on recent rallies.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 21 Oct: + 324.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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US Dollar Strength Triggers Broader Market Retreat

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 18:19:28 +1100

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Risk-on markets took a major step back overnight as the US Dollar continued to show strength. Bulls once again failed to gain ground, with price action falling to $86K for the first time since late April as another key support level gave way.

Despite extremely strong economic data yesterday and green US equity futures, the session closed red. The S&P 500 saw its weakest close since 10 September, while the Nasdaq finished at its lowest level since 11 September. Both indices are now trading lower than they were during the mass liquidation and tariff mixup on 10 October.

NVIDIA failed to build on its strong earnings momentum. After a very green day yesterday, it dropped more than 3% yesterday, fully engulfing those gains and closing at its lowest level in a month.

Earlier this week, we discussed the potential impact of the Yen carry trade unwinding, particularly as rising borrowing costs force institutions to sell risk assets in order to repay borrowed Yen. That pressure has continued, with the Dollar strengthening further against the Yen. The question now is whether the Bank of Japan will step in to intervene. A likely move would involve selling US bonds to buy back Yen, which would cause the Dollar to weaken against the Yen. We saw the yen strengthen against the dollar last year during the previous unwind, so it’s definitely something to watch closely over the coming weeks.

We also got the first unemployment figures since the US government shutdown. The rate has ticked up, adding more uncertainty to whether the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting. As of now, markets are pricing in a 60% chance of no change and a 40% chance of a 25bps cut. With the decision due in early December, we should get clearer signals soon on how the Fed plans to proceed and what that means for markets.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.00)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/pnKu4gL9/

HYPE has held up relatively well, down just 2% while broader markets fell harder. It’s still respecting its bullish trendline, which is encouraging, but continues to struggle at the 21EMA resistance. That point of confluence is approaching fast, one side has to give soon.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/vLC9l1is/

Bitcoin is down nearly 5% in the past 24 hours, failing to hold above its moving averages. The break below $88,888 has now flipped that key level into resistance. This was the strongest support between current price and $75K, though before testing that, we’re watching $86K as the next immediate support level.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 20 Oct: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA Earnings Steal the Spotlight as Bitcoin Holds Support...

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 15:52:51 +1100

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Last night Bitcoin was influenced by macro data and earnings from the traditional markets, which weighed on two of the main drivers of risk on sentiment. The FOMC and NVIDIA are two of the most influential forces in risk on markets. The FOMC dictates interest rates and NVIDIA, now the largest company in the market, has a major influence on how risk assets move.

FOMC Minutes

This morning’s release of the FOMC minutes covered everything discussed at last month’s interest rate meeting. We saw a 25 bps cut followed by Powell’s unexpectedly hawkish press conference. The minutes showed a 10 to 2 vote in favour of a 25 bps cut, with one member wanting no cut and another calling for a more aggressive 50 bps cut. The discussions were far more divided than the vote suggests.

Officials disagreed on what poses the greater risk, whether it is weakness in the labour market or persistent inflation. The government shutdown also complicated matters, with Powell describing the situation as like driving in the fog because key data was not being released during that period.

The minutes have injected fresh uncertainty into the path forward. Overnight the probabilities for December’s rate decision flipped. Markets now imply a 67% chance of no change and a 33% chance of another 25 bps cut. Yesterday, before the minutes were released, markets were pricing a 55% likelihood of a cut.

This represents a sharp turnaround from a couple of months ago when markets expected three cuts totalling 75 bps across the final two meetings. We now look set to get only one cut for the entire year. This is quite remarkable considering that late last year many investors expected as many as five. Rates will have to come down eventually so it is not the end of the world for risk on assets that usually benefit from lower rates. This year has simply been weighed down by tariffs, macro uncertainty and most recently the government shutdown.

NVIDIA Earnings

Traditional markets focused on NVIDIA’s earnings and as expected they exceeded forecasts. The stock rallied nearly 2% during the session and added another 3% in after hours trading once the results were released.

This lifted futures for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Both appear set to break their short term down trend and potentially resume a bullish move. The earnings result also eased concerns that the artificial intelligence bubble is about to burst.

Bitcoin Reaction

Bitcoin has not shared in the broader risk on rally. It once again retested the key level at $88,888 and once again it held. This is a constructive sign for the bulls and may offer short term support and a temporary bottom.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.29)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZAXDRV4v/

HYPE had another relatively flat day, moving less than 1% but continuing to respect its trend line and set a series of higher lows. It also continues to outperform much of the market which highlights the strength and demand behind the project.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/vLC9l1is/

Yesterday we highlighted that Bitcoin faced a significant hurdle at the 55 EMA and the yearly open at $93,500. BTC failed to break through and pulled back to the key support at $88,888 where it saw a solid bounce.

It is now retesting the 21 EMA which is likely to act as resistance and may push BTC back toward the same key support level.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 19 Oct: $ + 53.8 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Is the Yen Carry Trade Breaking Again?

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 14:46:15 +1100

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Last year we saw the yen carry trade unwind when the Bank of Japan shocked markets and raised interest rates. A carry trade refers to borrowing a currency at a low interest rate and reinvesting it into a currency or asset that provides a higher return. When the BOJ unexpectedly raised rates, foreign investors scrambled to repay their borrowed yen by selling off the assets they had purchased using that debt. The resulting wave of selling led to a sharp market correction.

At the time, Bitcoin was trading just below its then all time high in the low $70K region before suffering a brutal 30% correction down to $49K within a week.

The gift and the curse of Bitcoin is that it trades 24/7, 365 days a year. You can always buy it, but you can also always sell it. So when events like these hit, Bitcoin tends to be the first victim. Investors rush to get liquid and often sell what they can access immediately as every other asset class has closed hours. Despite the panic, Bitcoin found a base at $49K and rallied again.

This event also saw the yen strengthen significantly against major currencies. USDJPY dropped from a 34 year high of 161 down to 140, a 15% rally for the yen over the next 11 weeks.

Now, while we haven’t seen another BOJ rate hike yet, Japanese bond yields are climbing. The 30 year yield is now at 3.31% its highest ever, while the 10 year sits at 1.73%, the highest since 2008. Rising yields mean borrowing costs go up, making the carry trade more expensive. Investors are again being forced to sell off assets to repay their yen loans.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled more rate hikes may be on the way, with the next rate decision due mid December. Markets are currently pricing in a 50% chance of a hike, an outcome that would accelerate the unwind.

So far, the USDJPY pair hasn’t dropped as it did last year. It is currently sitting at 155. In fact, the yen has slightly weakened against the dollar. But analysts are projecting a move back to the 145 to 148 range if yields remain elevated into late 2025. If the BOJ hikes again or stays firm on policy, USDJPY could fall back to 140, marking the official unwinding of the carry trade.

As a result, non yield bearing assets have taken a step back across the board, regardless of whether they’re traditionally seen as risk on or risk off. The S&P 500 is down nearly 2% since the start of the week. Nasdaq is off over 2%. Gold is holding relatively sideways as it wrestles with the $4,000 level. Bitcoin is down just over 1.5%.

Keep in mind, the last time the yen carry trade unwound, Bitcoin dropped 30%. Bitcoin is now just shy of a 30% correction from its all time high. If this unwind plays out the same way, then it’s just a question of where you measure the 30% from, the all time high or recent levels.

If we do see a deeper correction from this unwind, it only opens the door for further accumulation of undervalued assets like Bitcoin.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.71)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/0iWrmpoB/

HYPE was having a solid day, up over 6% intraday and finally pushing above the 21EMA. But once again, resistance proved too strong and we’re now looking at a red close. That said, bulls can still find encouragement. HYPE continues to hold above its higher low and may have just printed another one despite broader market weakness.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/d3iFWJuN/

Bitcoin tapped the key support level at $88,888 and saw an expected bounce. We’re now retesting the yearly open which would be a big win for the bulls if reclaimed. However, bears have a stronghold here too, with the 55EMA offering additional resistance. A sustained break above both levels could flip momentum in favour of the bulls, the first real step toward breaking the ongoing downtrend.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 18 Oct: $ + 139.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Why This Is Not the Time to Be Selling Bitcoin!

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 14:31:14 +1100

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The classic adage in investing is ‘buy low, sell high’ but that is easier said than done. Most retail investors tend to do the opposite. They chase the hype, pile in during bull markets, then panic and sell during downturns. Often, they sell undervalued assets at a loss and rotate into overvalued assets near the top. Before long, the new asset retraces sharply while the original investment they abandoned outperforms.

There is a common misconception that bull markets create wealth. In reality, wealth is built through multiple cycles of patience and disciplined accumulation. Those actively buying during bear markets rather than selling into fear are the ones quietly building long-term positions. They take advantage of panic sellers and depressed prices because they have conviction in Bitcoin’s future.

The ones who sell now, telling themselves they will buy back in at the bottom, rarely do. They often miss the opportunity entirely and end up rebuying Bitcoin at higher prices once the market is euphoric again. Time in the market beats timing the market every time.

The real question should not be ‘how low will Bitcoin go’ but rather ‘how high could it go’. If you understand Bitcoin, you know the answer. It is up and to the right. The same structural problems that make Bitcoin attractive as a hedge only continue to worsen. The use case strengthens, institutional and sovereign adoption grows, and many project Bitcoin could exceed $1 million per coin.

So if you bought Bitcoin at a higher price and are now considering panic-selling to rotate into other assets at all-time highs, take a step back. Assess the long-term picture. Do not get caught selling bottoms and chasing tops. There is a saying for investors who try to pick the bottom ‘he who tries to pick the bottom usually ends up with stinky fingers.’ Step back, stay calm, and dollar cost average. When the market turns, you will be glad you held your nerve.

We have been here before. Bitcoin pulling back from a fresh all-time high is not new. Negative sentiment is recycled content for the media and influencers because it drives clicks. Earlier this year, Bitcoin hit $100,000 before pulling back to $75,000. People panic sold, hoping to re-enter at $50,000 or $60,000. Price is now $92,000. Last year, it dropped from $74,000 to $50,000 and people panic sold. Same story, price is now $92,000. In April 2022, Bitcoin was at $40,000 and the market rang the bear market bell again. Yes, it dropped further, but most investors disappeared only to return and buy back in higher. You get the picture.

The ones who sell during peak fear and listen to those saying to get out might laugh for a moment, but over time, they usually end up with egg on their face. The ones who buy during those moments are the ones who always have the last laugh. So what’s going to be different this time?

Now let’s look at one of the more talked-about signals: the death cross.

Death Cross: Not Always a Death Sentence

The death cross is when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day simple moving average. It is typically seen as a bearish indicator. But let’s dig into the data.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ejk9FTZQ/

Since 2021, the death cross has occurred five times. Two of those crosses happened after the bottom was already in. Two others occurred just days before the bottom. Only one of them, the outlier, preceded a longer bear market that took Bitcoin to $15,000. In other words, four out of five times the death cross either marked the bottom or was very close to it.

Now add to this the fact that sentiment is at multi-year lows. These levels have historically marked bottoms, often within the same month or shortly after. This supports the idea that we could be much closer to the bottom than most realise. This is not a time to sell. It is a time to accumulate and stay patient.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.50)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6YAGEQFZ/

HYPE had another flat session and in this market, that is not a bad thing. Bitcoin dropped 2.50% yesterday, yet HYPE held firm. It appears to be building a base, which signals strong underlying demand.

The key level to watch remains $35.35. That higher low is pivotal. If HYPE can form another higher low above this level, it would be a strong sign.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/iPCNLUid/

As expected, the yearly open level did not hold. Bears rejected another rally at the 21 EMA, and Bitcoin now looks set to retest key support at $88,888 in the coming days.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 17 Oct: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Has the Bear Market Begun?

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 14:24:56 +1100

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It was a tall order for the bulls over the weekend, but they could not stop the bears from confirming a classic bear market signal.

We have mentioned it a few times before. The weekly Bitcoin exponential moving averages, particularly the 55EMA, continue to play a major role in shaping market structure. Last week, we pointed out a bounce from this level and highlighted its importance. In Saturday’s morning note, we said Bitcoin had fallen below it and needed to reclaim $99,000. It was a major test that the bulls ultimately failed.

Bitcoin has now closed below the 55EMA on the weekly chart for the first time since September 2023, when the market was beginning to recover from the previous bear cycle. The last time this happened while still in a bullish posture, meaning the 21EMA remained above the 55EMA, was in April 2022. That breakdown preceded a larger decline that eventually took Bitcoin to $15,000 later that year.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JxJwcsI3/

We now anticipate a longer corrective period. Historically, a weekly close below the 55EMA during a bull market posture has signalled the beginning of a deeper bear phase. Previous cycles have seen further drawdowns of around 60% from that point, lasting five to eight months. If a similar move occurred from current levels, Bitcoin would fall below $40,000. But remember, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bitcoin has also returned to its yearly open, which adds to the uncertainty. For 2025, the path ahead could now go in either direction. Few would have expected such a sharp retest. We anticipate a move below $90,000, with the possibility of revisiting April’s lows in the low $70,000 region. These types of corrections have historically been opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices. The long term outlook remains unchanged, and the bullish narrative for Bitcoin is still intact.

However, as mentioned on Saturday, there is also a contrary signal that suggests the bottom could arrive sooner than expected. A death cross has just formed, which we will break down in tomorrow’s morning note. The name sounds ominous, but not all death crosses lead to extended downside. Some have actually marked reversal points. Stay tuned.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($34.49)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ux6RjDyg/

HYPE produced a flat session yesterday. Both bulls and bears attempted to take control, but the market closed right at the opening price. Bulls were once again capped by the 21EMA resistance, a recurring ceiling throughout the month. However, bears are still failing to generate strong downside momentum, which is a subtle positive for the bullish case.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/iPCNLUid/

It was a weekend of resistance for the bulls, who struggled with the 21EMA and could not push higher. The bears have stepped back in with renewed strength and dragged Bitcoin back to the yearly open at $93,500. This level is not expected to hold. We now anticipate a revisit of the next key support level at $88,888.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 16 Oct: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Here Comes the Pain; Bear market ahead or bottom forming?

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 13:48:22 +1100

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Bitcoin has just had its worst day since the October 10 liquidations. It closed over 5% down and is now trading below $95K, where the majority of the selling is taking place. Major altcoins are also in the red but have not fallen as much as Bitcoin over the last 24 hours. That is not a sign of altcoin outperformance. Zoom out and you will see altcoins have struggled for most of the year. Do not get distracted by short periods where they fall less than Bitcoin.

Yesterday we highlighted the yearly open at $93.5K as the next level of interest. We have almost reached that level, much quicker than expected, which speaks to the strength of the bears and the current lack of confidence across the crypto market. Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows and sentiment is near record lows. The Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 10, one of the lowest readings ever recorded.

Historically, when the index hits 10 or lower, it often marks the bottom or a bottom forming within the next few months.

Historical Fear and Greed readings at 10 or lower:

Present day (10): Bitcoin at $95K
27 February (10): Bitcoin at $85K, bottomed at $75K in April
June 2022 (7): Bitcoin around $25K, bottomed at $15K in November
May to July 2021 (multiple readings of 10): Bitcoin ranged from $30K to $36K before bottoming in July
March 2020 (10): Bitcoin at $6K and bottomed in the same month

Over the last five years, each time the index has reached 10 or lower, a bottom has formed that month or within the next few months. That does not guarantee $95K is the bottom. We may continue lower and the current momentum suggests that we do. But it is a strong signal that the bottom could be forming over the next few months. This is not the time to panic with the crowd. If anything, it is a time to start thinking about accumulation.

Bitcoin has now fallen back below the weekly 50/55 EMA. This is a key structural indicator of whether the market is in a bull or bear phase. It is the first time price has moved below it since April 7. Back then we saw an intraweek reversal and Bitcoin went on to hit new all time highs in the months that followed. This week’s candle closes Monday at 11am. For Bitcoin to avoid closing below the 50/55 EMA and potentially confirming a bearish trend, it must reclaim around $99K before then. We will revisit this after the close on Monday to assess what it means going forward.

It is an interesting time. Sentiment is at one of the lowest points in five years, a strong contrarian signal that usually suggests a bottom is close. But the technical structure is weak and the bears are clearly in control. Both sides have a case. We are now waiting to see who takes control...

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($37.38)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/LJT6rlmP/

Another red day as the bears look to take full control. HYPE dropped 2.70% and is edging closer to a key higher low. If that level breaks, the bears will have full control. It is a difficult environment for altcoins and Bitcoin’s weakness tends to hit them even harder. Be cautious with entries.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ykveMEQw/

The chart is ugly. Rallies continue to fail at the 21 EMA and just give bears more opportunities to reload before sending price lower. We are now sitting just above the yearly open at $93.5K. If that fails, expect a move down to $88,888. The current trend is firmly with the bears. It would take a strong rally to break this structure and shift momentum back in favour of the bulls.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 14 Oct: - $20.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.