Stormrake - Insights #Interest Rates

Bitcoin, BOJ Yields, and the Yen: The Next Financial Tug-of-War

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 16:49:57 +1100

Between the deluge of Japanese Bond Market volatility, yields spiking to highs not seen since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, a potential new Fed chairman and the re-opening of the US Government after the longest shutdown in history; we’re at a pivotal crossroad that’ll set us up for a monstrous 2026 and beyond. Bitcoin has seen significant volatility recently, both to the downside and upside in a very short period of time. While the uninformed and over-leverged investors have mostly been chopped up with recent price-action, we’re exceedingly pleased with how our clients at Stormrake have ridden out the waves of volatility with certainty and confidence knowing where all these short-term macro-headwinds take Bitcoin’s price in the long-run. Our long-term thesis for Bitcoin’s future hasn’t changed despite all the recent headlines and Crypto twitter doom-posting narratives that’re to be expected when people get flushed out at bottoms; not knowing the true value of what they’re holding. We’ve seen it during the 2017 bear market after the altcoin ICO bubble popped, also during the Terra Luna and FTX collapse of 2022. Once again, we’re cutting the wheat from the chaff while the market takes some time here to test the resolve of all its participants, both big and small bag holders alike. Those that remain steadfast with their pre-defined strategies and hold resolute to their future goals have always been greatly rewarded in time. Bear markets are where the future bitcoin millionaires are made, but as is the case with everything in life - nothing good comes easy. Patience and consistently by adding to position sizing has and always will be key to take full advantage of the opportunities that present themselves during this volatile time period. Understanding the macro-economic conditions, especially the Japanese Bond market and the potential strengthening of the US Dollar will play an important role in determining the direction and trend of risk-on assets such as Crypto in the short to medium term. Let’s take a look at how the Bond market is fairing across the pond in the land of the rising sun.

As Japanese yields are starting to teeter into all-time high territory, the market is reacting with bearish sentiment until this starts to un-wind. The yield spiking is a direct result of the direct selling pressure to offload treasuries given the somewhat hawkish pivot for Japan to unwind its Yield Curve control in the last few years and catch up with the rest of the developed world by having relatively higher rates to combat inflation.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/igmFGsxv/

This is particularly significant for global markets because Japan has long been a source of cheap credit. As the Bank of Japan moves toward unwinding its Yield Curve Control (YCC) and allowing yields to rise, it creates a ripple effect in global liquidity. The unwind of these policies reduces the availability of inexpensive capital for carry trades, where investors borrow in yen to buy higher-yielding assets in other countries. With rising yields in Japan, borrowing costs for these trades increase, forcing investors to deleverage and sell off risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. This tightening of liquidity puts downward pressure on risk-on assets, leading to heightened volatility and bearish sentiment across global markets.

Now apply that same principle directly to the strengthening US dollar versus a weakening Japanese yen. This is a systemic tightening of global financial conditions that directly impacts the appetite and capacity for risk, as opposed to a simple currency move.

A strengthening USD relative to the yen represents a deepening imbalance in the global funding system. For decades the yen has been the base currency for cheap leverage. Investors borrow in JPY at near-zero rates, convert to USD, and deploy the capital into higher-return assets: US equities, Emerging-Market assets, credit products, and increasingly Bitcoin.

When the USD strengthens significantly against the yen, the first-order of effect is straightforward: yen-denominated liabilities grow more expensive in USD terms, while USD-denominated assets must work harder to cover the same debt. This pushes leveraged players, especially carry traders, into a corner. They can no longer rely on exchange-rate stability to keep profits intact.

As the USD/JPY pair rises, anyone who borrowed yen to buy risk assets suddenly finds that the funding currency is weakening, and the asset currency is strengthening. In theory this sounds favourable, but only when the move is slow and orderly. A sharp or persistent USD surge tells the market something different: that liquidity conditions globally are tightening, that the Bank of Japan is losing control of yield compression, and that the probability of policy intervention or higher funding costs is rising. This is where the structural stress begins.

Another way we’re able to observe the structural decline of the Japanese Yen relative to the USD is simply by looking at the USD/JPY chart. This FX pair is one we’ve been eyeing for a number of years now and has proven to be highly effective as a barometer for broader market volatility, given its correlation to large macro-economic market swings for traditional markets.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ava8fiXi/

The amount of confluence on this chart is quite staggering; not only have you got a breakout of a 25-year long accumulation breakout to the upside, an Inverse head and shoulders bullish pattern that successfully completed, along with another breakout that’s now launched straight into price resistance with ease, you’re also currently looking at price-action coil upwards - appearing to get ready for another significant push higher, of which there’s very little headwind resistance above. A third swing-higher here will be a large move and will likely maintain the Yen carry trade for a while longer as the USD appreciates in value compared to the JPY, which could potentially signal a green light for risk-on markets to keep printing higher, despite the rising BOJ interest rates. Naturally, at some point the BOJ will need to back-stop a depreciating Yen if it keeps losing value rapidly, however they’ll need to tread lightly as domestic Japanese wages are still very low compared to other developed Asian countries, and a rapid increase in interest rates like what we saw here in Australia over the last few years would likely ravage an already tepid Japanese economy. This is good for Bitcoin in the long term and plays neatly into our BTC strategy for 2026 and onwards.

Bitcoin has taken the opportunity to correct and retrace to some excellent short-term buying opportunities over the past few months since the October 6th all-time-high, coming in at a whopping $126,000 USD per Bitcoin. Whilst this price push was short-lived, we stayed vigilant in not buying into the emotional euphoria and remained level-headed in our risk approach towards the market. Only four days later after printing the all-time-high we saw the largest liquidation in Crypto history ever on October 10th; where over $19 Billion USD worth of forced liquidations occurred from over-leveraged buyers that were far too exposed to downside risk, likely chasing the wave and coming in too late to the party. This is why Bitcoin blew out over the two weeks prior to the liquidation, as BTC held our aforementioned $108K support in late September and then launched into a massive +16% in the following two weeks. Conservative investors were taking profits during this time as we correctly identified the potential risk of a Wyckoff distribution pattern forming - of which, has since come to fruition. This is how the pattern forms from a textbook example.

Now let’s see how Bitcoin’s Price-action compares…

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/STNqKz28/

This was a bearish setup and conservative positions have since been rewarded with lower prices to add to position sizing with steep discounts. We can see it mirrored the setup near perfectly, although it was missed by many external retail participants due to the late-stage bullrun mania. This is exactly why remaining cool, calm and collected when adding to position sizing remains one of the most underrated skills in investing - as opposed to getting caught up in the “one more pump” mentality which saw bandwagoners take unnecessary hits to their PnL. The two solutions to this problem that plagues 95% of investors is simple; don’t use leverage, and always dollar-cost-average down, rather than up. While Bitcoin is holding in a price channel currently, let’s strategise an optimal path and determine how price-action might progress from here over the coming months based on BTC’s historical performance from previous bear market cycles.

After the selling cascade which lasted throughout the month of November, we eventually saw BTC find its temporary bottom at $80,537 on November 21st. Since then, we’ve been range bound and in an upwards channel trying to break the mid-$90K zone without any success.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cJHnjHpG/

Whilst the bottom came in and has since held our weekly support zone between $88K to $86K, of where we anticipated a potential higher low - ultimately our predicted bounce from here was to be expected sooner rather than later due to seller exhaustion. This doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods quite yet. Headwind price resistance still plays a major factor as on higher time frames we still remain in a downtrend despite the current short-term grinding higher. This channel BTC is stuck in is known as a “Bear Flag” pattern; quite the opposite of the “Bull Flag” structures we saw Bitcoin doing consistently throughout 2024, which saw it continually breakout to the upside getting us to six-figure Bitcoin prices in USD terms for the first time in history. These Bear Flags as you might surmise tend to break to the downside given they’re a bearish structure. If we see another selling cascade over the coming months which validates the pattern, investors can expect to see Bitcoin running the low $70K price range where more significant liquidity resides before another bounce may come into effect. This scenario would be highly correlated with the previous bear market if it plays out.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/MtAeTLWC/

During that time, BTC initially sold off, commencing its bear-market at the end of 2021, with a Q1 rally slowly grinding higher within a bear flag-like channel over the course of 91 days, before eventually completing the bearish pattern by spilling to the downside. This coincided with the Terra Luna collapse of May 2025, sending BTC plunging hard and fast from $48K down to $17K, in the red over -63% over just a few short months until June 13th where it found more liquidity at the 2017 highs. Once here, it formed another temporary bottom providing relief to HOLD’ers, until FTX collapsed five long months later; widely considered a result of the brutality that occurred earlier in the year which started the dominos falling.

In saying that, not every current cycle is designed to perfectly mirror the last - whilst the market does rhyme, it’s not always a 1:1 recreation, meaning in this instance a more substantial short to mid-term pump very well could be on the cards if buying momentum maintains strong here, before we then potentially go lower, so long as the market does eventually give us some very juicy prices at generational lows at $70K or below. This intermittent rally can be common in the earlier stages of bear markets, and is known as a “Failure-to-gain” rally. This is because whilst we get a strong move up, it doesn't take out the previous highs - essentially meaning the market prints a lower high before continuing the downward trend into lower lows.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/IMCQXsZl/

Whilst at first glance this might seem like bad news, it absolutely isn’t. This type of market price-action gives both bulls and bears an excellent opportunity to capitalise off volatility, before getting even better long-term entries to add to their bag sizes before the next generational Bitcoin bull market begins. Volatility = opportunity, and seasoned traders/investors can make the most out of this brief window of time to ensure they’re on the right side of the trade at all times. When generation lows do come, if you’ve made the right decisions along the way, you’ll hopefully have the most amount of capital available to you at the bottom - then loading up the truck becomes much more viable as you can scoop up what little BTC supply is available then, given the asset will get even more scarce, whilst other retail investors likely wait until it’s too late to pile in again at astronomical prices. Getting ahead of the curve in a bear market is arguably even more important than during a bull market cycle. Consistency and patience is rewarded usually in spades for those that execute and keep increasing their position sizes, this will be paramount over the next 9 - 12 months. Don’t get caught out again, just like those that waited for sub $10K BTC in 2022, just to end up buying back in at all time high prices yet again…sometimes a price too low really is too good to be true.

In the coming months we’ll be looking at what viable generational low targets might look like, and depending on how price action behaves over the next few months, we will outline a number of likely scenarios using historical price performance to get a head start on strategizing what the next most optimal moves are for this market moving forward into the years ahead. One thing will remain unchanged; Bitcoin is extremely well positioned to take advantage of the aggressive repricing of global asset valuations currently taking place. Gold and Silver bulls waited nearly two decades for the current skyrocketing prices where long-term participants that remained steadfast in their positions for as many years are now quite easily doubling their position valuations every couple of months - and consecutively too, all in just a short span of time. Time in the market will always remain the single most important aspect to long-term investing, and that’s been proven true for Bitcoin from cycle to cycle over its 17 year long existence. The only tangible edge available to investors is execution: staying liquid, staying disciplined, and being able to act decisively when the market offers sublime windows of opportunity that close as soon as the market regains stability. That is exactly where Stormrake fits. When price is moving fast in either direction, we make it simple to accumulate, rebalance, or scale out with intent through a private, professional desk built for high-conviction decision-making. Direction is noise - but access, timing, and consistency are the best advantages for long-term success in this industry.

Written by James Ryan

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Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

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Ethereum: The “Digital Oil” of the Modern Age

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 16:27:40 +1000

Since the last bull run in 2021, Ethereum (ETH) has undergone a quiet transformation. It is no longer just a smart contract plaƞorm for DeFi experiments and NFT collectibles – it’s steadily becoming the core infrastructure layer for stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), the bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and blockchain ecosystems.

This shift is ushering in a new era where institutions, governments, and fintech plaƞorms are turning to Ethereum for asset issuance, settlement, and liquidity. To put it simply, it is already reshaping the way global value flows across markets.

Ethereum’s Growing Role in Stablecoins

Stablecoins are digital tokens that track the value of fiat currencies like the US dollar. They are critical for crypto trading, remittances, cross-border settlements, and as a hedge against crypto market volatility. Among the vast number of blockchain plaƞorms available today, Ethereum remains the dominant home for stablecoins.

Major stablecoins like USDC, USDT, DAI, and PYUSD are primarily issued on Ethereum, taking advantage of its security, composability, and widespread developer support. In fact, more than 60% of stablecoin transaction volume flows through Ethereum’s mainnet or Layer 2s. Why? Because Ethereum offers the best blend of decentralization, scalability, and regulatory flexibility for stablecoin issuers and users alike.

Institutional adoption is reinforcing this trend. Visa has begun settling cross-border payments using USDC on Ethereum. PayPal’s PYUSD – their very own dollar-backed stablecoin is launched as an ERC-20 token on Ethereum. These moves highlight Ethereum’s role as the settlement layer for digital dollars, which could soon be the on-chain equivalents of real-world fiat currencies.

Tokenizing Real-World Assets on Ethereum

Beyond stablecoins, Ethereum is becoming the go-to network for tokenizing real-world financial assets, including but not limited to; U.S. Treasuries, private credit, gold, and real estate.

This trend, known as Real World Asset tokenization, or simply RWA allows traditional assets to be represented as tokens on a blockchain. These tokens can then be traded, borrowed against, or used in DeFi protocols. Ethereum’s security, smart contract flexibility, and mature infrastructure make it the obvious foundation.

A few high-profile examples include:

BlackRock’s BUIDL tokenized U.S. Treasury fund, which runs on Ethereum
Franklin Templeton’s tokenized money market fund, issued as an Ethereum-based token
Ondo Finance, which tokenizes U.S. Treasury yields and allows investors globally to gain exposure through Ethereum wallets

This movement turns Ethereum into a compliance-aware, globally accessible financial operating system - something that didn’t exist in TradFi or crypto just a few years ago.

What’s Changed Since the 2021 Bull Run?

Several key upgrades and ecosystem developments since 2021 have paved the way for Ethereum’s integration with traditional finance:

The Merge (2022) - Ethereum transitioned from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, cutting energy use by over 99% and aligning with ESG mandates, making it more palatable to institutional allocators.
EIP-1559 (2021) - Introduced a burn mechanism that removes a portion of ETH used in transaction fees, especially during high network activity. This has created periods of deflationary pressure on ETH supply, in-turn making it scarcer with better supply vs demand token-omics
EIP-4844 (2024) - Enabled proto-danksharding, which significantly lowers data costs for Layer 2 rollups, making Ethereum-based applications more scalable and affordable for users and enterprises.
Explosive Growth in Layer 2s - Networks like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base now host major stablecoin and RWA projects, thanks to lower gas fees and Ethereum-grade security. These rollups settle back to Ethereum mainnet, reinforcing ETH's position at the center.
Better Institutional Tooling - Solutions like Fireblocks, Chainlink CCIP, and KYC-enabled smart contracts have matured to meet the compliance needs of financial firms operating on-chain.

How This Affects ETH’s Price and Long-Term Value

Ethereum’s growing use as infrastructure is not just technical, rather it has clear implications for ETH, the underlying asset.

ETH as Fuel: Every stablecoin or RWA transaction on Ethereum or its Layer 2s burns a bit of ETH through gas fees, especially during periods of high activity.
ETH as Collateral: As stablecoin and RWA protocols grow, they increasingly rely on ETH for liquidity, governance, or backing.
ETH as Staked Capital: Institutions and individuals alike are staking ETH to earn yield, locking up supply and reducing sell pressure.

The combination of growing demand (for usage and staking) and declining issuance (due to burns and locked tokens) is seƫng ETH up for strong upward price pressure. Unlike speculative altcoins, ETH is building deep, real-world utility – now with institutional and retail investors noticing.

Ethereum Is Becoming the Internet Bond Layer

As stablecoins and RWAs move on-chain, Ethereum is not just keeping up - it’s becoming the standard. The network has evolved from a DeFi sandbox into the core infrastructure for institutional-grade digital finance.

This transformation means that ETH acting as both the fuel and the foundation of this new economy, it’s well positioned and quickly becoming the “digital oil” and reserve asset of a programmable financial future.

If Ethereum continues on this path, its relevance in global finance will grow dramatically, and in-turn so will the value of its native asset. Such as with ETH’s current price action, we just witnessed July give us an explosive rally over 65% from trough to peak for the month.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/WAIVuQm7/

From a low of $2,400 to a local peak just over $3,900, we’ve got the definitive confirmation that we needed on the charts now; the bottom is in. Trend has reversed back up with extreme buying volume, mostly consisting of Institutional ETF inflows, of which are breaking records daily now. Smart money is loading up the truck and they aren’t slowing down. Despite the recent liquidation sell off over the last few weeks, aimed at shaking out over-leveraged retail traders (a good thing), we are definitively now in an uptrend on all major timeframes, especially with that bounce overnight regaining local trend support.

In the short-term, we’re targeting a small retrace back down to $3,546 in order to keep building up support as we see things creep up higher.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/FQnfQVDu/

I suspect once we tag this short-term trend support, it will give us the solid structure we need to start pushing the ever-elusive $4,000 resistance zone that ETH has been stuck under all Bull run, however this time, with the expected late stage liquidation sell-off behind us, and Bitcoin Dominance continuing to fall (as outlined in previous articles) the timing of an Alt season combined with ETH’s resurgence isn’t a coincidence. We strongly believe it’s time to break through the $4,000 barrier sooner rather than later and into new All Time High’s.

Exciting times ahead to be sure. Keep a close eye on the charts and keep an eagled-eye out for more of our incoming articles over the coming weeks and months, because this train is about to get certified crazy sooner rather than later! (in all the right ways!)

Written by James Ryan

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From Global War Tensions to Green in just 12 Days

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 16:20:07 +1000

What a wild couple of months we’ve had since our last article. There’s been no shortage of excitement in the market – to say the least! We’ve witnessed Bitcoin not only just break All Time High’s once again since the retail panic of April (well done Tarriff scalpers!) but we’ve now just speedrun a potentially devastating and prolonged conflict in the Middle-east. From Israel’s initial attack into Iranian territory, all coming to a conclusive yet miraculous ceasefire in a mere 12 days, now being coined the “12-Day-War” by the White House. Trump truly has quickly become one of the most influential and strongly mandated POTUS’ of our time. Not only is he leading America’s economic boom as we’re seeing asset prices resurge back to All Time High’s across the board despite some initial policy trepidation surrounding trade policy, but now we’ve got Donald “Daddy” Trump actually making serious inroads for the ever elusive notion for peace in the Middle-east, even if it comes at the price of “Kinetic Diplomacy” in the form of highly sophisticated Bunker Buster missiles and advanced stealth bomber capability on a strategically planned Sunday evening at midnight. Since then, we’ve seen nothing but green on the charts for Risk-on assets, signaling that despite the macro-uncertainty of the first half of 2025, we’re good to move forward now and finish off H2 with conviction and strength. Let’s take a look at how Bitcoin has not only survived but thrived throughout the last few months.

Bitcoin has kept maintaining momentum to the upside for the most part over the last few weeks since bouncing off our predicted major support zone around the mid-$70K range. Actually, as mentioned earlier, we saw Bitcoin briefly push to new All Time High’s once again for a few days, reaching a peak of exactly $112K before coming into the current sideways price action we’re currently in. Another stark reminder that it wasn’t even a month prior to the new highs that people were panicked about Trump’s Tarriff policies and many retail traders were in a perplexed state of “deep fear” as seen on the Fear & Greed Index. Not us however; we remained steadfast in our long positions and doubled down on telling our clients how this was a prime-time for loading up the truck and adding to position sizes. Those that took action have done exceptionally well in a short amount of time, as we knew back then that those exceptional market opportunities come seldom and remain few and far between. So why the sideways price action for the last two months then since the huge rally in May? To that, all I have to say is one word you’ve heard me repeat time and time again this cycle; Accumulation. This is nothing to fear, rather – again providing excellent opportunity for market participants to add to their positions, especially those that missed out on when we called bottoms back in April. Looking at the Price Action on the charts, we can in fact see we’re currently in the midst of another Bull Flag pattern and have been since late-May when we pushed the $112K high.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/CGhOb49p/

Not only is this a Bull Flag, but keen eyes and avid readers of my previous articles will notice a similar pattern of price progression; that being the ever-subtle yet exciting Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Two of these bullish patterns together provides excellent confluence and further signals the notion that the market lows are well and truly in, now with much more upside to come sooner rather than later. To further solidify the Inverse Head and Shoulders, we can see that it’s following a textbook “smaller right-shoulder” and has held steadfast when testing the strong support found at $98K.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/FRC6U6UI/

The strong bounce off this level happened exactly in the midst of Operation Hammer and the near-immediate ceasefire that followed shortly after. Just like I’ve outlined many times before, don’t follow the news narratives, rather look at the charts – they’ll tell you all you need to know. As a result we’ve seen a nice modest gain since then across risk-on markets, although we’re still within the broader accumulation range, therefore the opportunity for those still on the sidelines currently waiting to allocate further capital is still clear and present, however I doubt it will remain this lucrative for much longer now as the cascade of bullish price action and strong fundamentals narratives are ramping up to create the beginnings of a euphoric cacophony. Whilst Bitcoin remains on its historic tear despite all the macro headwinds, let’s take a look over and see how the altcoin market is doing.

The rest of the crypto market remains undervalued for the most part, yet all the top 10 majors appear to be in their own versions of an accumulation structure. Ultimately, market lows seem to be in across the board since the Trump Tarriff dip which was absolutely necessary and needs to be the case for the stronger Alt-assets to remain bullish for the remainder of the cycle, although we haven’t seen them break out of their aforementioned accumulation zones either quite yet. This means even for the major alts, the opportunity to buy low before moving higher also remains clear and present just like Bitcoin. Ethereum as the number #2 asset is still undervalued, yet holding its accumulation zone of support that we’ve outlined in previous articles. This is slowly but surely stacking the odds in its favor that there’s a lot more upside than downside risk from here on out. Holders almost always have their patience rewarded for holding in periods of “boring” accumulation periods such as this - just remember it’s not about timeframes; it’s about levels and trend. Trend is holding for ETH, so being bearish on it here in nominal terms is a massive counter-trade and usually these kinds of market participants that spread fear and “pile-on” an underperforming asset right at its market lows. Just like the Fear and Greed Index that we outlined in previous articles, if you counter-trade the sentiment of the masses, the odds are already in your favor. ETH/BTC is still above our projected must hold level, likely to keep increasing in the coming months. I believe this will align with when Bitcoin surges past the $112K high with momentous rise and slingshots to the next $150K target.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cXFjh6Ni/

Historically, these big moves later in the cycle become the perfect catalyst for retail trades who missed the earlier cycle gains in Bitcoin, who’re looking for the “next-best-thing”, and just has its done the previous two cycles, I believe ETH will still retain the #2 podium place for a while longer and will fit that criteria as a moderately safe play for many newer investors looking for an excellent deal. In contrast, let’s take a look and see how XRP is performing relative to its counterparts as despite the macro-headwinds of late, it’s maintained the top 3 podium position (excluding Tether) and appears to be well poised for an exceptional late-cycle rally.

XRP pulled back with the rest of the market exactly where we predicted, in-line with BTC’s pullback at $109K back in December. Just as XRP pumped with Bitcoin in December, and has pulled back in price during bitcoin accumulation correction since then. I suspect it’s waiting for Bitcoin’s moment to resurge with conviction well past those December highs in order to keep up the pace once again. XRP during this accumulation period has held our previously predicted major support level perfectly at the lows of $1.60 since April and has bounced off with conviction and momentum since. Despite the recent 12-Day-War turbulence of late, we can see XRP is still making Higher Lows, again - retesting the top end of our support channel at $1.90 and continuing to push to higher local prices. Although we haven’t made a confirmed local Higher-High just yet, we can see that XRP over the last few months has solidified its price support and appears to be forming one of our favorite patterns this cycle; the Bull Flag.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/COZi7pG3/

So long as XRP holds the green zone of support above the 2021 highs, then I see XRP only gaining momentum from here once Bitcoin has given the green light to the Altcoin market that the final “melt-up” phase of the Bull run is ready for liftoff.

As for the discussion on Interest Rates and the narratives surrounding monetary policy coming out of the FED, as of July 1st, Chairman of the Federal Reserve – Jerome Powell was clear that Interest Rates remain in a sort of proverbial “holding-pattern” shifting the reasoning for this towards Trump’s ever evolving Tariff policies. It appears the FED want more certainty surrounding economic data before pulling their one-and-only lever to maintain fiscal stability; the lowering of interest rates. Trump being the everenigma tic and comedic leader of the free world, naturally sends a handwritten letter to Powell stating “You are as usual ‘too late’. You have cost the USA a FORTUNE and continue to do so – you should lower the rate by a lot!” making sure there are no misconceptions on his stance towards relatively hawkish monetary policy under his Presidency. The FED being a self-governed body however don’t answer to the whichever POTUS is currently in power, therefore we’ll need to see if there’s any further headbu􀆫ng from here between the two as Trump’s economic roadmap for America’s golden-age does actually hinge on easily accessible capital and free-flowing debt to keep the Fiat-driven equity markets propped up and drunk on cheap money for consistent long-term growth in post-GFC world.

What we’ve witnessed over the last few months is nothing short of a masterclass in how markets respond not just to macro events, but to the sentiment and positioning that follows them. From the chaos of global conflict to the calming green of market recovery, we’ve seen how quickly narratives can shift, however the charts always tell the truth. Bitcoin continues to lead with strength, supported by classic bullish patterns, while Ethereum and the altcoin majors remain quietly coiling in powerful accumulation zones. The 12-Day-War, Trump's kinetic diplomacy, and the ongoing tension between fiscal and monetary powers have only fueled the urgency for smart capital allocation in this cycle. As we move deeper into H2 2025, the window of opportunity narrows. The charts are aligned, sentiment is cautious, and the setups are clear; those who remain focused and positioned now may well be the ones leading the charge when the next leg of the bull run ignites. The message remains the same - stay informed, stay patient, and stay in position.

Written by James Ryan

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Reach out to us at Stormrake for further market insight and allow us to help you navigate the sea of mania and laser-eye memes, so that you can realise your goals in the market!

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Welcome to Moon Season (We’re so back)

Tue, 20 May 2025 15:43:43 +1000

After all of the Fear, uncertainty and doubt since the beginning of the year, those who saw what we saw and took the necessary action to add to their positions during such a prime market opportunity are being rewarded in spades as we speak! With full market-wide reversals back to the upside, we’re very glad to see that since the last article I wrote back at the beginning of April before the final sell-off and capitulation leg took place, we’ve not only hit our targeted support zones across BTC and other Major-alt coins, but we’re back on track regaining the previously lost local trend with extreme bullish momentum that is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Ultimately, this means that the broader market crash in response to global narratives we saw is now nothing but a blip on the radar as we continue the Bullrun. Trend wasn’t lost across any of the major assets, even looking over at US Indices; the S&P500 (yes – we keep a very close eye on this too) didn’t lose major trend support and completed a fairly textbook retest correction which is now being followed by a continuation to the upside, likely to All Time High prices again with feverous momentum – another great sign that the bottom is in. Even the Fear and Greed Index is pushing 70+ again, now in “Greed” territory, compared to when sentiment was down in the slumps in “Extreme Fear” around 15 just a mere 6 weeks ago. Make no mistake, that’s just how quickly things change in this space. Let’s take a look at where we think things are going from here, so we stay ahead of the curve once again as we melt-up into the retail euphoria phase that is to come.

Since our last article, we’ve seen the capitulation and market sell-off reaction that we predicted in response to Trump’s Tariffs. This has taken us to the zone of support which I outlined in the previous April article for a great deal of assets that we’ve been actively trading, the most notable one being Bitcoin of course. We got the final leg of the sell-off very quickly for BTC and for the broader market as a whole within days of publishing the article which gave the heads up to our clients that this was a high likelihood. As a result, it should’ve been no surprise too that we also landed into the strong support zone I outlined in that article, which consequently saw us bottom at precisely $74,434, of which we then started to move back up hard and fast with a “V-Shape” reversal pattern.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/EPRxOLse/

Not only did we start heading back up hard and fast, which is to be expected after a large emotional sell-off, but we also with haste started breaking through multiple local weekly resistance levels in order to solidify the notion that the bottom is well and truly in. These levels are derived from the previous trend resistance and landed us both $86,084 and $96,262, both of which price is holding well above now at a whopping $102,000 again (That didn’t take long!) All that’s left now is for BTC to keep up the momentum and crack the previous $109,356 High that we set in December, so that we can carry on melting up as we enter the later stages of this Crypto Bullrun.

With this being said, clearly Bitcoin has performed tremendously as the leading asset for the Crypto-space this cycle. Despite being in the later stages of the Bullrun, its strength this cycle cannot be underestimated; however, as we’ve detailed in previous articles, the dominance of Bitcoin has always reached a plateau each and every cycle where despite continuing to rise nominally in price, its strength relative to its altcoin counterparts starts to diminish as retail and now institutional investors will begin to hunt down those fundamentally sound and resilient projects that are somewhat undervalued in order to close out the maximum possible gains for their portfolios as prices start to get crazy from here.

Looking at BTC’s Dominance chart once again, we can see the channel of resistance we outlined earlier in the year to clients still holds true as the index appears to be topping precisely where we anticipated, and it couldn’t come at a more opportune time.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/BZ2q2inw/

At the start of May, once the recovery in nominal prices across the board started to pick up speed, we consequently saw BTC’s Dominance top-out around 65% which was the top of our predicted resistance zone. Since then, we’ve started to pullback and given that major altcoins individually remain bullish from here, this correction in BTC’s Dominance is likely to continue; therefore, meaning that Altcoins are gaining quicker in gains relative to Bitcoin. Again, this doesn’t mean that Bitcoin is going down in nominal prices, rather that altcoins are going up quicker and faster in % gains relative to BTC’s continued upwards growth. I suspect BTC Dominance will likely continue to fall from here for the remainder of this Crypto Bull run cycle, at least until shortly after the major altcoins top-out in their respective nominal dollar prices; of which then when the bear market eventually starts to set in, BTC will renormalize and re-absorb the majority of Cryptocurrency liquidity once again despite being in a bear market, just as it’s done historically in previous cycles. Let’s take a look at two of the Major altcoins now that we’ve been keeping a close eye on which we believe are likely to perform well from here on out over the coming months.

Ethereum took a beating with the rest of the market during the Trump Tariff scare which makes a lot of sense as FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) doesn’t discriminate when it takes hold and isn’t rooted in much logical reasoning. As a result, we saw ETH lose its previous support and double-bottoming structure, falling into another major trend support level at $1554 where it has since held firmly.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/BiQ2pPUB/

The good news is that despite what might appear as ugly price action at first, this has positioned ETH to be extremely undervalued whilst still retaining the #2 place in the Crypto pecking-order in terms of Market Cap this entire time. These types of “good deals” amongst major tokens are EXTREMELY rare and should not be ignored. This is why since the bottom has come in across the entire market, we’ve seen ETH not only reverse back up too, but we’ve seen it in fact outperform significantly compared to not only other major altcoins, but the entire market as a whole, pumping near a whopping 100% in just the last 5 weeks. This because “The harder they fall, the harder they pump” and the ETH/BTC chart echoes this sentiment as well, showing that it’s currently holding the long-term Macro Bottom from pre-covid, therefore meaning we likely will bottom out here again creating a very strong “Double-Bottom” support, further giving credence to the notion that ETH will continue to outperform BTC from here despite falling out of favor in the eyes of retail earlier this cycle.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/BWQmuWqW/

The fundamental narrative that’s shifting for ETH now which is helping support this shift in Price Action is that the Pectra Upgrade has gone live; simply meaning that ETH is finally starting to correct its scalability issues that created high gas fees and network congestion which has been plaguing users of the network for a number of years.

While it’s nice to see ETH finally catching a break, there’s another major Altcoin asset that had once previously fallen out of favor too, but this cycle has seen it truly come back with a vengeance, and we don’t have to look far down the market capitalization list to find it…

XRP, the token of Ripple I remember wasn’t even on people’s radar last cycle due to the now determined unsubstantial lawsuit filed by the SEC and the delistings that followed the suit. Since then, Ripple have reclaimed their deserved place in the top 3 pecking order of assets (not including Tether), their token; XRP has truly held up well this cycle, undoing any of the previous cycles poor performance and is well poised to take advantage of this cycle’s continued growth. From a Price Action standpoint, XRP is holding up much better than ETH as it didn’t lose structural trend despite falling a sizeable 52% from peak to trough from when we were predicting an imminent market pullback in December of last year.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/1Umm4GiG/

XRP held its uptrend on the weekly timeframe, unlike ETH; therefore, despite XRP falling to a low of $1.61 where we correctly targeted our support zone months prior, it shouldn’t prove too difficult to keep creeping up higher from here as there’s far less headwind in ways of resistance to stop continued price appreciation. Conversely, XRP has also been setting up two different yet very bullish patterns over the last few months, both a Bull flag and an Inverse Head and Shoulders. Similar to what we predicted BTC would do around $50K pre-US Elections, I wouldn’t be surprised to see XRP do something similar from here. Given its strong narrative and ETF-hype as a well-positioned American-based Cryptocurrency project with close ties to the Trump Administration, this one is looking finally ready for incoming All Time Highs for the first time since January of 2018.

Finally, there’s a combination of Bullish narratives hitting the market all at once since the market’s price recovery; between the beginnings of a deal for the China & USA trade war negotiations, a potential ceasefire for the Ukraine and Russia war, US CPI Inflation data coming in lower than forecast once again last week and of course Trump’s 90 Day pause on Tariffs, there’s no wonder prices are reflecting the bullish sentiment that we’re going higher from here. Even the S&P500 has done a textbook V-shape reversal off its major support at 4825, now back at near 6000 again; a very similar recovery to how the index pumped coming out of the March 2020 covid crash. It’s clear that the market’s perception of all these cascading narratives has shifted radically from “It’s over” to “We’re so back.” All of this is great for Cryptocurrency, and with the first glimpses of a late-stage alt season truly beginning, make sure you’re ahead of the curve with us at Stormrake and ready to seize the opportunity like many of our clients did in the last 6 weeks – because believe it or not, you’re still early.

Written by James Ryan

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Buy when there’s Blood in the Streets

Wed, 02 Apr 2025 14:33:07 +1100

Between the deluge of sensational narratives, extreme retail sentiment swings, and the overall uncertainty of how Trump’s macro-economic policies will affect the US and global markets as a whole, it’s no surprise everyone has their own theories of where things are going from here. One thing is certain though, history may never repeat; but it sure does rhyme. The great and illustrious Warren Buffett once said: “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” The difference between those that survive multiple cycles and those that chop up their gains in this game are the ones who look at the bigger picture, seeing where we were before and where we’re going from here. As are many things in life, consistency is key, and if nothing’s changed – we keep stacking. Despite our BTC price pullback of 30% and our predicted mid-cycle highs at $102K, if we look back historically, we can see that we’re well within historical tolerances for a BTC retracement. Such optimal buying opportunities are generally rare in the later stages of a bull run and we don’t plan on letting it slip away from us! Let’s take a look at how this mid-cycle correction stacks up over Bitcoin’s 15-year history as an asset class.

We can see in the last two cycles where Bitcoin started to reach the mainstream, during the early stages of its maturity Bitcoin has always taken the opportunity in its later stages of a bull run to have a sizeable correction before creating what’s known as a “blow-off top,” going on to print eye-watering all-time high prices before eventually topping out. Back in 2017, this happened in September of that year giving us a whopping -40% correction before then going on to gain a blistering +560% gain in just the following three months.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/QtmXYQPP/

Being someone who was buying hand-over-fist as a bullish market participant back then too, watching this all unfold; those bears who sold their bags too early were absolutely livid to say the least. It was the “China-Ban” narrative back then which caused the sell-off, of which might’ve sounded daunting to newbies at the time, but it ultimately didn’t change anything in the long run for ever-growing demand to acquire BTC globally. Ironically, similar FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) surrounding China creeps into every market cycle. Historically, those who’ve bought these dips have always done well. I suspect the current rhetoric in relation to Trump’s Trade War with China will fare no differently as BTC demand is largely very correlated to the exponential expansion of currency circulation globally, in turn creating a perpetual risk-on environment where BTC thrives in the long run. Bitcoin was created as a remedy for reckless currency expansion and as much as the market is hanging out for further rate cuts from the US FED and here locally by our own RBA, the stark reality is that while this makes the cost-of-living more affordable in the short-to-medium term, lowering rates is a sure way to devalue your local currency further, and this devaluation is exactly what makes Bitcoin and other risk-on assets extremely bullish long term.

Going back to the bull cycle in 2021, during the month of April the markets were at a point where they had been climbing aggressively for 6 months straight, so much so that we got retail euphoria almost too quickly which led to an overabundance of retail leverage trading which in turn created an inevitable yet brutal correction seeing BTC declining a staggering -55% in just three months. When the market eventually recovered after this correction in the following months, although it printed a marginally higher-high and all-time high of $69,000, unfortunately the momentum had mostly already been lost as retail had less new capital to enter the markets after the huge liquidation surge and ultimately new capital was scared away as the macro-economic narrative also started to shift towards a rising interest rate environment in the later part of the year.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q2vPFVCC/

This was the nail in the coffin for risk-on and speculative assets such as cryptocurrency and is the primary reason why the 2022 bear market followed swiftly thereafter. With this being said however, it’s clear that in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles, when the inevitable mid-cycle correction came in, once averaged out, both had average corrections of approximately 47.5%, of which new all-time highs still were printed that cycle within the following months before the new top was in. This current cycle correction has seen us pull back so far only a mere 30% from $109,358 down to $76,555; therefore, we’re well within expected tolerances for a mid-cycle correction. It’s still possible with the uncertainty in the market currently that we might want to make another local lower-low. If this is the case, we’re looking at headhunting a retest from the breakout of the previous highs. This would land us around $72K, which also coincides with a very juicy 0.618% Fibonacci retracement.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/fQsoA5rf/

If prices go here however, we will need to see a significant bounce because any further short-term bearishness at this stage will make us lose trend on higher timeframes and consequently force us into a bear market cycle. In the end, these types of “must hold” supports end up serving as great opportunities to see some quick gains as a large bounce from here is likely, given its high importance to hold.

Ultimately, this means our projections for a continued bull run in the coming months remain unchanged and serve to prove the age-old adage that if history rhymes yet again, that any buying here would be highly opportunistic and may make for some excellent and potential fast gains for risk-tolerant traders given the advantage of prices having had come down to these levels across the board first before moving higher. Given that these sell-offs are generally emotional and sentiment-driven, funnily enough we can chart this too with something known as the “Fear & Greed Index” which is also publicly available and provided by coinmarketcap.com.

This is an excellent tool we can use in order to gauge retail sentiment for the crypto market as a whole, giving us a clear indication based on order book volumes and buying/selling metrics on-chain to determine if crypto may be either overbought or oversold at any point in time. This index gets updated daily and we’ve used it with a high degree of accuracy in conjunction with technical and macro-economic analysis to predict market tops, bottoms, and even mid-cycle corrections in between, the latter of which we’ve been experiencing post-Trump victory rally.

Inexperienced retail traders tend to buy into the hype narratives, usually when everyone has found out about "x" opportunity, at this stage everyone is convinced it’s a sure bet and everyone’s already bought. Therefore, all that’s left is for sellers to come in and take profits. This is how a market top forms; because at a certain point you reach peak-market saturation where the only people filling the order books are sellers, whereas the buyers that haven’t got much capital left to keep adding to their positions quickly get overwhelmed and price spills back over to the downside. The opposite can be said for bear markets and mid-cycle corrections. When all the "paper hands" in the market have been shaken out due to uncertainty surrounding macro-economic narratives, fear, and doubt, all that’s left is for buyers to swoop in, scoop up all the good deals, and very quickly the few sellers that remain are overwhelmed by the enormous buying power and prices reverse back to the upside.

This index is rated on a scale between 1-100; and as you can see the last time the index went well into the "Fear" territory, it was back in August of 2024 right at the bottom where I was also predicting our BTC bull flag where price eventually tagged $50K USD, and quickly got bought up and pumping massively thereafter in the lead up to Trump winning the US Elections. At the bottom in August, the index reached a low of 26. If we take a look over at the current mid-cycle correction that I predicted would happen eventually once BTC hit $102K, you can see the healthy correction that we’ve since had has led us to a low on the Fear & Greed index conversely at similar levels, in fact we reached a low of 15 on the index right on March 11th just a few weeks ago. If history is to repeat, once you reach these "Extreme Fear" levels where we are now, it’s not too far-fetched to think that the opportunity for many becomes too tempting, usually followed by prices quickly reversing back to the upside. I suspect this is what we’ll see again now, given that nothing has changed in terms of the fundamentals for BTC and the macro-economic landscape still remains bullish market-wide.

In the words of the great Warren Buffett “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.” This couldn’t ring truer with where the market is at right now. Currently at these Extreme Fear levels, we’re at a pivotal point in the market where if the macro-economic conditions remain in favor of risk-on assets just as we’ve seen them be after every uncertain market correction, well; these entries here will be talked about with a lot of reverence one day. If nothing’s changed, our strategy remains so too. Keep stacking, keep learning and growing, because if history taught us anything, it’s that a lowering of interest rates and global currency debasement doesn’t solve itself overnight with a few tariffs. The long-term direction of the economy and broader markets are crystal clear, just like how we believe Bitcoin and other fundamentally sound cryptocurrency projects will have clear skies ahead, along with new all-time high prices to come with.

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Australia’s 2025–26 Federal Budget: Strengthening the Case for Bitcoin in SMSFs

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 15:40:09 +1100

The Australian government’s latest budget signals a deepening shift in how private wealth—particularly superannuation—is managed and taxed. For investors, this is more than just a policy update; it is a clear warning that long-term financial autonomy is increasingly at risk.

Superannuation: From Retirement Security to Government Revenue Source

Australia’s superannuation system was introduced on 1 July 1992, with the intention of providing workers with a stable, long-term retirement savings framework. However, despite early assurances that superannuation would remain untouched by political interference, successive governments have repeatedly altered its rules. One of the most significant overhauls came in 2006/2007, when the Tax Laws Amendment (Simplified Superannuation) Bill introduced tax-free withdrawals for retirees over 60. At the time, then-Treasurer Peter Costello framed these reforms as creating a system that should not be continually adjusted, warning that constant changes would erode confidence.

Yet, in the years since, governments from both sides of politics have continued to modify tax settings, contribution limits, and access conditions, often using superannuation as a fiscal lever rather than a protected retirement asset. The 2025–26 Federal Budget follows this familiar pattern, underscoring the reality that superannuation is no longer immune from political and economic pressures—reinforcing the need for greater individual control.

Superannuation as a Budget Lever

The 2025–26 Federal Budget reinforces a trend that has been developing for years: superannuation is no longer just a retirement savings vehicle—it is now a key instrument of government fiscal policy. The Treasury has revised its forecast for super tax receipts up by $2.4 billion for 2025–26 and by $9.7 billion over five years, confirming that the government is increasingly reliant on super contributions and taxation to balance the books.

This reliance raises significant concerns about future policy direction. The possibility of taxing unrealised gains on large super balances remains on the table, a move that could force fund members to pay tax on paper profits even if assets have not been sold. Such a policy would introduce liquidity challenges, distort portfolio construction, and increase uncertainty around long-term financial planning.

In this evolving landscape, control over superannuation investments is becoming a strategic advantage. Investors who seek greater autonomy are increasingly looking beyond pooled industry and retail super funds, where policy decisions are outside their control, and towards self-managed super funds (SMSFs), where they can directly allocate capital into assets that align with their long-term vision of wealth preservation.

The Aussie Dollar's Structural Weakness and the Shift to Harder Assets

While the budget surplus may provide temporary stability for the Australian dollar, the underlying macroeconomic picture remains fragile. The AUD’s long-term value remains dependent on external factors, including commodity demand from China and broader USD liquidity conditions.

Domestically, the government’s approach to fiscal policy suggests that purchasing power erosion is likely to continue. While tax cuts and rebates offer short-term relief, they do not address the fundamental challenges of persistent inflation, energy insecurity, and structural weaknesses in key industries. As inflation continues to eat into real savings, investors are increasingly looking for hard assets that sit outside traditional monetary policy frameworks.

Bitcoin’s finite supply and resistance to centralised intervention make it an attractive hedge against currency depreciation. Within an SMSF, Bitcoin offers exposure to an asset that cannot be debased by policy decisions or inflationary fiscal management.

Bitcoin in an SMSF: A Path to Self-Sovereignty

Bitcoin’s role within an SMSF is not just about investment returns—it is about enhancing financial sovereignty. With the government demonstrating a willingness to adjust superannuation rules to meet fiscal objectives, retaining direct control over asset selection and portfolio strategy is becoming increasingly important.

Holding Bitcoin in an SMSF allows investors to:

Maintain autonomy over their retirement savings, rather than being subject to pooled fund management decisions.
Diversify away from traditional financial system risks, reducing exposure to AUD volatility and regulatory shifts.
Own an asset that is scarce, decentralised, and resistant to government intervention, providing an alternative to traditional wealth storage methods.
While Bitcoin held within an SMSF remains subject to the same regulatory and taxation rules as other superannuation investments, its fundamental attributes as a sovereign-grade asset make it a compelling option for those looking to preserve wealth in an era of policy uncertainty.

The Case for SMSFs in a Changing Superannuation Landscape

With superannuation becoming a major fiscal tool, passive reliance on industry super funds is becoming an increasingly risky proposition. Pooled funds are subject to changing regulatory frameworks, and investors have little say over how their capital is allocated.

An SMSF provides the flexibility to make independent asset allocation decisions, ensuring that investment strategies are aligned with personal financial goals rather than government policy shifts.

For those seeking greater control over their super, Bitcoin represents a natural addition to an SMSF portfolio. Unlike traditional financial assets, it operates outside the influence of central banks and government intervention, offering a store of value that remains independent of fiscal policy changes.

Final Takeaway: Bitcoin and the Future of Superannuation

The 2025–26 budget reinforces a key theme: the government is increasingly using superannuation as a tool to manage its own financial position, rather than solely as a mechanism for individual retirement savings. This shift underscores the importance of self-directed financial strategies.

Bitcoin, particularly when held within an SMSF, provides a pathway to enhanced financial sovereignty. While it remains within the superannuation regulatory framework, its decentralised nature, fixed supply, and resistance to external control make it a compelling asset for those looking to future-proof their wealth against fiscal overreach and currency devaluation.

The ability to control one’s own financial destiny is becoming an ever more valuable asset. In this environment, Bitcoin within an SMSF is an increasingly strategic choice for those looking to maintain autonomy over their long-term savings.

Written by Bisher Khudeira

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Trump’s Tariffs + Trend Chop=Trading Opportunity

Sat, 15 Feb 2025 14:06:14 +1100

Since my last analysis on Christmas Eve 2024, after the massive wave of volatility post-US elections, the markets have since made the well-adjusted decision to take the needed time to cool off and enjoy some breathing room as we outlined then would be a likely possibility. This has allowed the market participants that have been Bullishly long since early in this cycle to not only take advantage of all the mounting positive narratives for Cryptocurrency, such as the deluge of Institutional Investment and unprecedented ETF inflows that have been building up over the last few years, but also seizing this current mid-cycle correction phase to provide ample opportunity in reallocating capital to undervalued positions and ensuring our strategies remain well-poised in maximizing gains ahead of the upcoming Altcoin Season.

With recent volatility pertaining to a few curveballs such as; the surprise announcement of China’s DeepSeek AI, rocking the foundations of US-based AI companies and NASDAQ heavy-hitters such as Open AI and Nvidia who’ve built businesses around limitless spending budgets and boundless excess of capital derived from the notion that “more spent = better results,” now with China swooping in and undercutting their competitors with a viable Open Source solution that’s up-to-speed meeting market demands at a fraction of the cost, it’s no surprise that the recent manic over-valuations of some of these US companies led investors into a selling frenzy realizing that these once “safe-bets” a mere twelve months ago are now being threatened simply by the free-market finding opportunity via inefficiency, thus creating viable competition. Ultimately this is all very good for the technology ecosphere in the long run, however; yes – the market needed its medicine when Nvidia’s overblown P/E Valuations were sustaining a figure above 40.0, which for the Stock Trading enthusiasts know this is deep in the over-valued territory where a sudden steep and sharp correction becomes an inevitability sooner rather than later, which we’ve now got.

This of course, spilled over into the Cryptocurrency sector and solidified our prediction that a mid-cycle correction of sorts would likely commence here started to ring true. Combined with Trump’s inevitable Tariff Shock to the broader markets, it’s clear that we’re in a deluge of uncertainty right now, however nothing fundamental has changed for the markets; mainly newer retail participants just don’t like uncertainty and tend to overreact in the short-term. Based on all the positive political shifts and executive orders Trump’s signed in the wake his inauguration combined with his feverishly bullish plan to make the United States of America the world leader for all things Crypto, there’s no doubt where this industry is heading in the future in my eyes. Let’s take a look at the charts and see what price levels we’ve needed to respect in the meantime, and where we will be going thereafter once out of the storm.

In our previous article in December, after hitting our $102K target for Bitcoin, we called for a well-deserved retracement as we stated “nothing goes up in a straight line forever.” This couldn’t have been more fortuitous, as since then Bitcoin hasn’t been able to trade consistently above that Fibonacci extension target without being sold-off consecutively each week. We noted that there were two primary entry points we were looking for when coming back down on the weekly time-frame that were also ascertained using Fibonacci’s sequence, again looking at likely psychological price levels that we could retrace back down to. Our first level at 0.236% tagged around the $96,500 mark early on, however, it was our predicted optimal level of 0.382% level sitting at a price of $89,400 where our ideal retracement level was that price ultimately came to test and hold and has been holding ever since.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/B9CMVoUb/

While price chopped along sideways in a channel for some time, we blocked out the noise and remained steadfast that this level would tag in some way, shape, or form, and that day came on Jan 13th in the lead-up to a forecasted “hotter-than-expected” CPI print of 2.9% Year-on-Year, +0.2% greater than previously anticipated. This gave the market the extra little bit of uncertain push back to the downside that we were hoping for, albeit still holding trend, therefore giving us a nice setup and bounce higher that came in the following days before the announcement of DeepSeek AI.

Since the eventual panic sell-off from not only DeepSeek AI challenging the overblown valuations of the US AI Sector, but also now with Trump’s 25% Tariff shock to Canada, Mexico and now being discussed which other non-US nations will need to be subject to these extra economic buffers, it was only natural that the market has priced this in and remains somewhat “choppy” and stagnant with prices mostly sideways across the board until we clear these high seas of uncertainty into clearer waters. With that being said though, in terms of Price Action, we have held what we’ve needed to, and maintained the overall uptrend that has gotten us to these eye-watering prices in the first place.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/l86DJqrX/

As you can see, despite the narratives that seem to just keep on coming, despite the relentless nature and wild swings of the market, Bitcoin is determined to hold the $90K line in the sand and Local Uptrend on higher-timeframes; a good sign that this is all just noise and won’t permeate into a larger and broader sell-off. The Local Trend needs to hold here (green box) to keep momentum relatively high in the medium term so that we push into fresh All Time Highs later this cycle, however, if we do end up getting a Weekly or a Monthly close below the green box zone, then we will be looking at yet another broader re-accumulation phase (similar to what happened between March – September 2024), in order to re-gain buying momentum before attempting to head higher.

Whilst we expect to see Bitcoin trailing higher once it’s ready to sustain consistent buying volume and reduced selling beyond the current $102K Resistance zone, given that historically in the first half of a Bulllrun we usually see Bitcoin lead the charge, it’s the second half of a Bullrun where BTC dominance starts to fall off, giving way to the meteoric rise of Altcoins, like we saw in cycles past. As is true for all trading opportunities, this can even be charted and critiqued using Trend Analysis and our understanding of Price Action to determine where a likely trend reversal will come in, paving the way for Alts to reign supreme again. Currently, BTC dominance has remained consistently in an uptrend since the beginning of 2023, in-line with the beginnings of a bottom forming from the FTX crash in Q4 2022.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/1HSdsNJi/

As Bitcoin is the grandfather of all Crypto currencies, the relationship it has relative to how the entire Crypto industry will perform as a whole later on in the cycle cannot be underestimated. However, at a certain point during a Bullrun, usually happening once Bitcoin has breached into fresh new All Time High territory in USD, often when that first major mid-cycle correction kicks in (like what we’re experiencing now!) that’s typically when BTC whales and eagle eyed market participants look at reallocating their holdings into undervalued and underperforming Altcoins in order to make the remainder of their gains seeing that Bitcoin has already done most of its rally up until this point thanks to the law of diminishing returns. Upon closer inspection, we can see BTC dominance last Bull cycle during 2021, Bitcoin reached a market saturation peak at 73.63% in December 2020, again aligning with when it started breaking above $20K USD for the first time since the 2017 Bullrun, beginning the printing of fresh highs that would last all the way until November of 2021. The question then remains – where do we see BTC Dominance topping this current cycle? Well again, thanks to the law of diminishing returns as the overall plethora of Cryptocurrencies, memecoins and broader umbrella of Web 3.0 assets available to market participants each and every cycle keeps growing, it’s unlikely we’d see the peak at those levels again, in-fact if we trade the trend on the basis that BTC.D will keep making lower macro highs on higher timeframes as a result like it’s always done given the above, I’d expect to see this cycles resistance coming in around the 60-65% zone, of which we’ve tagged twice now in the recent months and rejected off of both times. This further gives credence to the idea that whilst BTC will continue trailing higher from here nominally in USD prices, it’s performance compared relatively to its Altcoin counter-parts will start to dwindle until this cycle has reached its peak.

Speaking of undervalued and underappreciated heavy hitters in the space currently, Ethereum has remained stable yet consistently low on buying volume for the entire duration of this current Bullrun for the time being. This meant that while the sell-offs that came for the entire broader market also came of ETH naturally, as its not vastly overvalued yet like it has been in cycles prior, it meant that the sell-off didn’t send prices below support and reversing trend into becoming Bearish – in-fact we held nicely at the structural accumulation zone and proceeded to double bottom during Trumps Tariff shock cleanly at $2,100, with a sharp rebound within 24 hours straight back to the $2,600 - $2,700 range.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/jxkD2fXH/

This is a great indication that despite being dragged down with the rest of the market which is to be expected in times of market-wide volatility, ETH was able to respect it’s broader macro uptrend since 2023, consequently not losing trend and having buyers stepping in quickly to seize the immense “Double Bottom” opportunity. Given all this, I’d say that ETH likely is here to stay defending its #2 place in the pecking order for all Cryptocurrencies for the foreseeable future.

In the December article we also looked at how once ETH broke out of this accumulation phase, we’d likely see the completion of an Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern, careening price up to a first Fibonacci Extension target of $7,400. While it might seem at first glance with all the recent volatility and market shocks that this may no longer be valid, if we block out all the noise of the sharp candle wick sell-offs that were bought up same-day in recent weeks, we can see the overall structural trend of ETH when changing from a Candlestick graph to a more simplistic Line graph, that nothing has changed.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/9FiUA51b/

Actually, if we end the month of February back at around $3,000 or higher, we could easily see the aforementioned “smaller Right Shoulder” easily form here, therefore keeping the original analysis unchanged from December. Sometimes in the market, discerning trend can be difficult when the charts are full of long wicks to the downside where buyers have longed with capital hard and fast to “Buy The Dip”, however that noise can sometimes get in the way of seeing the bigger picture, hence the Line chart in this instance removes that singular day’s extra volatility to the down-side, seeing it got bought up virtually instantly anyway, demonstrating that essentoally nothing has changed in the grand scheme of weekly or monthly timeframe trading. This is exactly what you want to see during a mid-cycle corrective phase, as newer retail participants sometimes trade solely off the noise, hype and mania, where-as veteran traders tend to look at the overall trend structure and bigger picture to make their analysis for the Long term.

Now taking a look over at the current Macro-Economic landscape, ultimately the trend is still the same there too. The US FED are still being extra cautious to make sure they don’t cut rates too quickly and send us straight into a heated-up second wave of consumer inflation. As a result, despite Trump’s vocal conviction that the FED must start cuƫng rates ASAP, for the month of January, the FED decided to keep rates on hold at a forecasted 4.50%.

Source: https://www.investing.com/

Whilst Trump would have preferred they started cuttng right off the bat once coming into office, when asked, he commented that the decision rather to hold rates steady here for the time being was “probably the right move”. The market was happy with this response as it didn’t sell-off again due to any further uncertainty surrounding this, likely in-part to Trump’s tepid and understanding tone.

Coming into 2025 with moderate enthusiasm, a bit of uncertainty yet overall unchanged macro trajectory I think was the best possible outcome for the longevity and remainder of this Bullrun. Remembering the last cycle, we came into 2021 as hot and ever, hittng the ground running with memecoins galore making insane gains, which sounded nice at first, however I very quickly remember by late Feb, early March we started losing steam quickly, which ultimately led to an entire market top in just mid-April, which saw us sharply over-correct to the downside minimum 50% in some cases. The market then struggled for the months following creating uncertainty for far too long, meaning that BTC was never able to regain the $60K peak again with any form of consistency there-afer, eventually bleeding out and spilling all of its gains quickly once 2022 rolled around. This left many feeling like it was an underperforming cycle upon looking back, of which I’m glad we’re not repeating again. Moderate, yet extensively quick market-wide liquidations like we’ve seen in the last few weeks which we forecasted in our December article, the fact that we’re experiencing those now and they’re well within expected correction drawdown tolerances, means that we’re settng up to have a healthy and fruitful 2025 ahead. With a Crypto-pro Trump at the helm of the largest and arguably most impactful economy in the world – I’m confident we’ll see clearer skies ahead in the near future, with fresh narrative and retail euphoria quickly washing away the much needed tepidness of January. Allow us at Stormrake to show you the way through the noise so that you and your portfolio can prosper in a world where the pendulum is swinging back the other way, making not just America great again, but making the whole world have something to look forward to in a new Tech-driven Golden Age where future possibilities of innovation and growth are boundless and exciting once again.

Written by James Ryan

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The Six Figure Dream becomes Reality – Where to from here?

Tue, 24 Dec 2024 14:51:59 +1100

What an amazing month we’ve had since the US Elections! Not only was our prediction on the money with how a Trump victory would positively affect the markets, but in just a very short amount of time we both sustained the breakout momentum of the Bull Flag pattern we’d been following and careened straight into our first price target at $102,000 USD using our Fibonacci extension strategy outlined last month. While retail mania has started to seep in again naturally with many meme coins pumping and speculation running rampant given the substantial gains across the board, the question many are asking is – where to from here? Let’s take a look into some possible scenarios for Bitcoin and what might be next after the Godfather of Cryptocurrency taps out and hands over the reins to its younger brother later this cycle…

After hitting $102,000, Bitcoin naturally sustained some trading momentum over the subsequent days and weeks allowing us to actually overshoot our target by a small margin and tag a local high as of three days at $108,364. This is to be expected in Bull runs as some overperformance almost always takes place in a volatile market as retail participants somewhat late to the game in this cycle will naturally chase a sea of green for a quick buck. However, as the saying goes; nothing goes up in a straight line forever. Price corrections are a healthy part of any market cycle with Bitcoin being no different. I suspect we’ve reached somewhat of a plateau for now and could be seeing the beginning of a healthy correction. Currently the daily trend is still holding, although a short sharp liquidation of the over-leveraged longs here is starting to take place now as expected. Bitcoin has a history of the very hard and fast price spills in order to weed out some of the bad money in the system, usually finishing of the larger timeframe candles such as the weekly or monthly with a large bottoming-wick, solidifying a base of support before continuing to print higher. Using Fibonacci’s sequence for a retracement here would make sense given it’s a psychologically bearing indicator being used on an emotionally fuelled pump, post-election mania. Right now, we are getting a nice sell-off, which hopefully could allow us to do a retracement into the 0.382% Fib level, getting us to $89,430.

A clearer view of the above chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/cICk8mHy/

If this was the case (which is a pretty optimistic one, we might not go that low), it likely means we close out of the month of December with a red month, although as mentioned above if we can get a nice long bottoming wick due to buyers swooping in and buying the dip, we could start moving back upwards rather quickly at these levels which are perceived as a relative “good deal”; this would consequently set us up very bullishly leading into the New Year for 2025 and beyond.

The Alternative scenario (and more likely one) would be that these last few weeks of exhaustive and slowly diminishing gains are leading to an eventual Distribution pattern in the short term. This essentially means that as retail buying momentum starts to slow once we reach a temporary point of market saturation, eventually profit taking comes in and overpowers the few diminishing buyers that are left. Once you start getting more sell orders than buy orders in a market, an inevitable price correction happens, and we start to turn back down such as is currently taking place. Again, all of this is healthy for the markets – so long as we hold and maintain the critical levels of support, of which at this point in the cycle would be rather easy to do, especially given the macro bullishness across all sectors of the market right now. The first level of daily support I also believe to be here at $96,490 as mentioned above in order to maintain the daily uptrend we’re in

A clearer view of the above chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/01wuTYO6/

In this liquidation slide-styled correction, even if we wick through the $96,490 level pretty hard, as long as we close daily trend around or above this price, it makes for a fantastic opportunity to add to our holdings so that we can get the last few entries in before the real mania begins. At that point, because we have closed the daily candles and weekly candles holding trend despite the hard sell-off, a strong reversal will likely come in eventually spurring on substantial buying volume followed by even more green on the charts until we fully melt up and blow out ultimately closing out this approximate four-year market cycle. In either scenario, as long as we’re holding the broader structural trend we’ve made up – we’re clear to keep printing higher from here in the coming weeks and months ahead.

In our previous articles we’ve also given credence to how an “Alt Season” may play out, meaning when Bitcoin starts to become the less dominant coin in the market and the alternative Cryptocurrencies that aren’t bitcoin start to gain significant momentum and, in some cases, even outperform BTC by the end of the Bull run. Let’s take a look at what Bitcoin’s younger brother and second largest Cryptocurrency is doing.

Ethereum is well positioned to take advantage of this upcoming “Alt season” and has shown all the technical signs it’s needed to in order to demonstrate it’s not only undervalued currently, but soon to play catch-up with the rest of the market. Historically, Bitcoin is the first major Cryptocurrency to breach new All Time High’s when a Bull run kicks off, becoming the leader that points the way for all other Cryptocurrencies to follow suit once deeper into the Bullish cycle. This is usually true up until the point of a significant “Mid-Cycle Correction” of which I believe we’re potentially in the midst of as writing this. Right now, we’re also getting a sell-off in ETH as its value is closely correlated to BTC at this stage of the cycle, however once we recover out of this, I suspect that the retail mania will ramp up to higher levels of speculation, therefore paving the way for the broader Alt Coin market to melt up even further which will position ETH as an attractive yet currently undervalued-conservative way to gain exposure to this upcoming Alt Season.

The Price Action leading up to this correction has been trending really nicely, in fact ETH has done a similar “Bull Flag” Pattern, of which we successfully predicted on BTC earlier this year. ETH broke out of its Bull Flag post-Trump Election win, pumping from it’s major support which held since early August between the 0.618% and 0.702% Fib levels, equating to lowest point held at $2,131.22 in this zone of psychological support.

A clearer view of the above chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/FiWocl2S/

As of early December, we finally reached structural resistance for this bull flag at $4,093.57, meeting the resistance point again from which we fell from initially back in early 2024. Now that we’re correcting from there, we have come back to retest the weekly breakout level that confirmed the uptrend had resumed when we gained the $3,561.89 weekly high. This was a Lower High within the Bull flag itself that we needed to gain in order to reverse trend. Now that this has happened and we have retested this level, it’s an excellent sign that we’re likely to keep trending healthily back upwards by tagging all the needed support along the way now so that we can cleanly break the All-Time High’s and beyond, I suspect most likely by Late January – early February. Until then, this entire trading range on ETH between $4,000 and $3,000 will become an accumulation range likely for the next 30 days or so, providing ample opportunity for market participants to add to their positions before a “sea of green” really takes hold and it’s off to the races!

This deluge of bullish momentum will likely come in when Ethereum completes another more advanced yet bullish pattern which I believe to be currently forming in its final stages known as an “Inverse Head & Shoulders”. Essentially this is another bullish accumulation pattern layered over the Bull flag, indicating further confirmation that we’re likely to head higher after this correction. For the pattern to finalise, we need to form the right shoulder of the pattern, which we are currently doing by having a correction here. Then finally we need to get a breakout of the “Neckline” of the pattern which is around our same resistance at approximately $4,000 in order to cleanly break higher and soar past the All-Time Highs and into virgin territory thereafter.

A clearer view of the above chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/dpR7OCrb/

As you can see, also using Fibonacci extensions in order to ascertain where the first target might be once above the All-Time High, it’d likely land us at $7,475.60 where the 1.618% psychological level resides, similarly to how we predicted the $102,000 first target on bitcoin with a high degree accuracy, of which it just reached and pulled back from this month.

As we correct in price here, it’s an excellent opportunity to take a look back at the absolutely stellar year we’ve already had, allowing us to achieve what was once considered impossible; a Six Figure dollar value on merely a single Bitcoin – but it’s not over yet! The most ludicrous part of this market cycle is still to come, although to maximise opportunity, we need to stay vigilant with how this correction plays out over the course of January into early 2025, because if we hold these levels here, despite the bottoming wick volatility and some daily timeframe selling and follow-through to the downside – once we zoom out in larger timeframes it’s clear to see that this is a healthy correction in the grand scheme of things, rather, I’d say it’s a blessing in disguise to veteran market participants. In further articles that are to come over the following months, we will also look at how to chart ETH relative to BTC price, as opposed to USD in order to get an even more in-depth look in how we can capitalise off this incoming Alt Season accurately using historical data and manage risk while we’re melting up in a deluge of retail (and possibly institutional this time around too!) mania. Allow us here at Stormrake to guide you through the noise and catch the hidden gems of the market in order to achieve your bounty this cycle and beyond!

Written by James Ryan

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Overtrading leads to Underperformance

Fri, 13 Dec 2024 13:56:43 +1100

The recent price action in the crypto markets has underscored the importance of avoiding overtrading. Bitcoin has once again proven its dominance, climbing to new all-time highs while altcoins have delivered mixed results. Since November 7th, Bitcoin has surged from $66.8k to an all-time high of $104k, marking an impressive 50% rally in just a month. This rally initially drove Bitcoin dominance above 60%, only to retreat slightly, allowing altcoins to shine briefly—perhaps hinting at the start of an alt season. However, despite Bitcoin dominance peaking on November 21st, the price has continued its upward trajectory, setting new highs above $100k.

The strategy remains straightforward: buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the benchmark of the crypto market, and if your portfolio underperforms Bitcoin, you’re falling behind. Over the last 14 years, Bitcoin has delivered a staggering compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 155%, compared to Gold’s 7%. Bitcoin should be the cornerstone of your portfolio, complemented by a strong allocation to select altcoins poised to outperform during their brief periods of dominance.

The Cost of Trying to Outsmart Bitcoin

The real danger arises when investors or traders try to outsmart Bitcoin, attempting to sell at the top and buy back at the bottom. Bitcoin has a knack for punishing impatience, and those who sell early often end up buying back at higher prices. Similarly, waiting for lower prices can result in missed opportunities. For instance, in November 2022, when Bitcoin was at $15k, many hesitated to buy, anticipating a drop to $12k—which never came. These individuals eventually bought back in at much higher prices.

A more recent example occurred during the US election period, with Bitcoin trading just below $70k. Fear of a potential pullback under a Kamala Harris-led administration sidelined many investors. They missed out on the subsequent rally, where Bitcoin soared to over $100k.

The current rally, from $66.8k to $104k, further illustrates this phenomenon. Hesitant buyers have repeatedly waited for a larger pullback, only to watch Bitcoin recover and continue climbing. Even during two rapid corrections—from $99.4k to $90.8k and from $104k to $93.8k—many stayed on the sidelines, expecting deeper retracements. These missed opportunities left investors watching from the sidelines as Bitcoin surged to new heights.

Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market

The key takeaway? Time in the market beats timing the market. Bitcoin rewards patience and punishes overcomplication. Trying to trade Bitcoin often leads to underperformance, while simply buying and holding has historically delivered the best results.

When investors miss out on Bitcoin’s gains, they often turn to altcoins in a bid to catch up. While it’s true that some altcoins outperform Bitcoin, this period of outperformance is usually brief and limited to specific phases of the four-year cycle. For example, while outliers like Solana or Sui may outperform for extended periods, the majority of altcoins underperform Bitcoin most of the time.

During Bitcoin’s recent meteoric rally, only a handful of altcoins have matched or surpassed its performance, with most lagging far behind. Investors who shifted into altcoins hoping to make up for missed Bitcoin gains have, in many cases, fallen even further behind the benchmark.

Overtrading: A Losing Strategy

Emotion-driven traders often make poor decisions, buying into strength and selling into weakness. At first glance, this approach may seem logical, but the data tells a different story. Overtrading disadvantages you from the start—fees accumulate with every trade, and the constant attempt to chase moves results in suboptimal performance.

The portfolio simulation above, comparing an overtrader with a patient investor, highlights the stark difference: starting with $100,000, the overtrader consistently underperforms due to transaction costs and mistimed moves, while the patient investor who simply holds Bitcoin achieves significantly greater gains.

Overtrading is a slow but sure way to diminish your portfolio value. Trading fees, regardless of the platform, add up over time, eating into potential profits. The lesson is clear: holding Bitcoin long-term is a far more effective and sustainable strategy than trying to outmaneuver the market.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin is the foundation of any crypto portfolio for a reason. It offers unparalleled growth potential and serves as the benchmark against which all other assets are measured. Don’t fall into the trap of overtrading or chasing short-term gains. Patience, discipline, and a long-term mindset will always outperform impulsive decisions.

Let Bitcoin do the heavy lifting. Buy, hold, and reap the rewards over time. Keep calm and HODL

Written by Alexandar Artis and Tej Toor

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Giving Thanks for Bitcoin This Thanksgiving

Fri, 29 Nov 2024 14:05:18 +1100

Bitcoin has delivered wonders this year, giving many investors much to be thankful for. Thanksgiving is one of the few holidays when US markets close, but Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets remain open 24/7, 365 days a year. However, expect trading volume and volatility to dip as Americans take time off for the holiday. With Black Friday following closely, US markets will see only a half-day of trading. Real market activity is likely to pick up on Monday. Until then, we can anticipate reduced volatility, lower volume, and lower inflows into crypto ETFs.

Bitcoin has experienced a relatively calm 24 hours after a volatile 48-hour period earlier this week. The price fell to $90.8k before rallying back to $97k and has since consolidated around $96k. For those hoping for Black Friday crypto "deals," it seems the bargains came and went earlier this week during Bitcoin's correction.

Bitcoin dominance continues to decline and is entrenched in a bearish structure, while the Total2 index (total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin) continues to outperform. This trend may indicate we are in the transition between phase 1 and phase 2 of the bull market. The altcoin season index sits at 63, a high reading but still short of the key level of 75. Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin yesterday, further signaling that phase 2 of the bull market has not yet begun.

For those feeling underexposed or concerned about missing out, now is the time to strengthen your Bitcoin position. This market is still in its early stages, presenting long-term believers with an excellent opportunity. Contact your Stormrake Crypto Broker to make the most of this moment.

Stormrake Spotlight: Fantom ($0.995)

FTM continues its short-term pullback after a strong rally. This retracement presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors. The Sonic Migration upgrade has the potential to propel FTM into the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market cap and push it past its previous all-time highs.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/9zW4NUED/

Bitcoin recently broke out of its bearish structure, forming its first higher high. It now appears to be confirming a higher low. This price action has also created a bull flag pattern, with Bitcoin approaching a potential breakout above the top of the channel. The bull flag's target suggests a move back to $99k. Additionally, Bitcoin is trading above the key 21 EMA, which is expected to act as support as it trends higher.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 28 Nov: $ N/A million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/nRkHlBWx/

Ethereum remains in a bullish trend, sustaining its upward momentum after a massive rally. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum has formed a bull flag pattern, with a target of $3,820. ETH is also trading above the 21 EMA, which should provide support as it moves higher.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 28 Nov: $ N/A Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.