Stormrake - Insights #Iran Israel Conflict

The Rake Review: March 2026

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 18:43:11 +1100

The Shift is Underway

March was the month everything changed for Bitcoin. For much of the year, we highlighted its true purpose. In March, that narrative became reality.

Chaos is Accelerating the Shift:

There are often turning points or key events within the globe that cause a major shift in the globe, usually in the form of revolutions or changes in world powers. These shifts catch most by surprise but those who were able to identify the signs early and position themselves are sitting in the best spot for once the change occurs.

The current conflict that dominated headlines and influenced every market throughout the month has accelerated this shift. The conflict in the Middle East, we saw it occur last year but it only lasted a couple of weeks, markets took a slight detour before recovering and tracking higher.

This conflict has already surpassed a month and isn’t showing signs of ending anytime soon, despite the chaos in the headlines. Historically these events have resulted in investors rotating into extremely low risk assets such as cash and gold. But to many surprise this hasn’t been the case, in fact we have seen capital leave the likes of gold and return into Bitcoin.

It is a sign of a shift in Bitcoin and its role in the global economy.

What we are witnessing is not just a short term reaction to geopolitical stress, but a structural change in how capital behaves under pressure. In previous cycles, moments like this forced a predictable rotation into gold and cash. This time, that playbook is being challenged in real time.

Across the Middle East, investors have been actively selling gold, not because they have lost faith in it as a store of value, but because of its limitations in a fast moving and uncertain environment. Gold is difficult to transport, costly to secure, and inefficient to transact across borders. In contrast, Bitcoin offers instant mobility, divisibility, and self custody. When capital needs to move quickly, those properties matter.

There is also a market structure element at play. Increased selling pressure in physical gold markets has led to local bullion dealers offering below market rates due to imbalances in supply and demand. This creates friction at the exact moment investors need liquidity. Bitcoin, on the other hand, trades in a global, continuous market where liquidity remains accessible regardless of local conditions. The ability to exit at a transparent market price is becoming increasingly valuable.

This shift is already visible in price action. Since the conflict escalated, Bitcoin has held strength and pushed higher, while gold has softened and equities have struggled. That divergence is not noise. It points to early signs of decoupling, a theme we explored in The Bitcoin Regime Change Has Begun and further reinforced in our analysis of shifting monetary dynamics.

Bitcoin is no longer behaving purely as a speculative risk asset. In regions where traditional financial infrastructure is strained or inaccessible, it is actively being used as money. Settlement, preservation of value, and cross border transfer are no longer theoretical use cases, they are being tested in real conditions. As highlighted in Bitcoin at the Strait, this transition from narrative to utility is critical.

At the same time, broader monetary conditions are reinforcing this behaviour. As confidence in fiat systems continues to fluctuate and global liquidity remains uneven, capital is searching for alternatives that are both liquid and independent. Bitcoin is increasingly fitting that role.

The key takeaway is simple. This is not just about one conflict or one month of price action. It is about a redefinition of what investors consider a safe or reliable asset in times of uncertainty. Bitcoin is beginning to earn that status, not through speculation, but through performance under pressure.

The Market Never Closes Anymore:

Keeping on the theme of this broader shift, we are now seeing it move beyond capital flows and into the structure of finance itself. This is where things become more meaningful. It is no longer just about where money is going, but how the system it moves through is being rebuilt.

Traditional finance has always been constrained by time, geography, and layers of intermediaries. Markets open and close. Settlement takes time. Access depends on jurisdiction, permissions, and counterparties. That model worked in a slower, more fragmented world, but it is increasingly out of sync with how capital now behaves.

Crypto infrastructure removes those constraints entirely.

Markets are now operating in a continuous cycle. Capital moves 24/7, reacting instantly to news, macro shifts, and geopolitical developments. There is no delay between regions, no waiting for sessions to overlap, and no downtime where risk cannot be managed. This fundamentally changes how participants interact with markets. Exposure can be adjusted in real time, and liquidity is constantly available rather than concentrated into specific windows.

This shift is not theoretical, it is already being stress tested in real conditions.

Throughout the recent conflict, major geopolitical updates have not waited for market hours. Trump, in particular, has made several market moving statements over weekends, a period where traditional finance is effectively offline. In previous cycles, investors would have been forced to wait, unable to react until markets reopened.

Now, that delay no longer exists.

On platforms like Hyperliquid, traders have been actively positioning in real time, not just in crypto, but in tokenised representations of traditional markets. Oil, the S&P 500, and major equities such as Tesla and Apple have all seen price discovery continue over the weekend, driven by these developments. By the time traditional markets reopen, a significant portion of that price movement has already occurred on-chain.

This is a fundamental shift in where and when markets move.

Hyperliquid sits at the centre of this evolution. It is not just offering an alternative venue for crypto trading, it is building infrastructure that mirrors and, in some areas, surpasses traditional derivatives markets. Onchain order books, deep liquidity, and continuous trading create an environment where capital does not need to wait for legacy systems to catch up.

The significance of this is underscored by its growing integration with traditional finance. The Nasdaq deal with Hyperliquid signals that this is no longer an isolated crypto native experiment. Established financial players are beginning to recognise the advantages of on-chain infrastructure, particularly when it comes to speed, transparency, and global accessibility.

At the same time, tokenisation is accelerating this convergence.

By bringing traditional assets on-chain, tokenisation allows them to inherit the benefits of crypto rails. Assets that were once restricted by market hours can now trade continuously. Settlement becomes instant, ownership becomes more flexible, and access becomes global. The lines between crypto and traditional finance are no longer clear cut, they are beginning to merge.

What this creates is a financial system where capital is always in motion.

Liquidity no longer sits idle waiting for markets to open. It reacts instantly to information, whether that comes from central banks, geopolitical events, or unexpected headlines over the weekend. Price discovery becomes a continuous process rather than a fragmented one, and increasingly, it is happening on-chain first.

The key takeaway is clear. Crypto is not just complementing traditional finance, it is actively replacing some of its core functions. When markets close, crypto stays open. And as more capital, infrastructure, and institutions move in this direction, the question is no longer if traditional finance adapts, but how quickly it can catch up.

A Turning Point Beneath the Surface:

Despite widespread uncertainty and continued pressure across traditional markets, March marked a subtle but important shift for Bitcoin. Breaking the streak of red months, Bitcoin closed March up 1.83%, avoiding what would have been the longest drawdown in its history.

While the gain may appear marginal on the surface, the significance runs far deeper.

March was a fundamentally strong month. Bitcoin not only held its ground but began to decouple from traditional risk assets, outperforming in an environment where equities struggled and gold failed to attract sustained demand. This is the shift we have been highlighting, and in March, it began to materialise in real time.

As we move into Q2, April becomes a focal point.

Historically, April has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest performing months, second only to November. It has delivered an average return of 33.4% and closed green in 10 of the last 15 years. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, it does provide a seasonal tailwind that aligns with the improving conditions we are beginning to see.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/5lWGOSPk/

From a technical perspective, March was largely defined by consolidation.

Price spent the majority of the month ranging, with multiple attempts to break higher failing to gain sustained momentum. This has created a clear structure heading into April. The key level for the bears sits at $60K, while the bulls need to reclaim and hold above $70K. A decisive break and hold beyond either of these levels is likely to dictate the next major move.

Momentum is now beginning to shift.

The bears, after months of control, are showing clear signs of exhaustion. Selling pressure is no longer accelerating, and downside follow through has weakened. On the other side, the bulls are starting to reassert themselves. March saw a return of strong ETF inflows, signalling renewed institutional demand, alongside improving onchain metrics.

Layer on top of that a historically strong month, and the setup becomes increasingly constructive.

If Bitcoin were to align with its historical April average of 33.4%, it would place price in the region of $90K. While that is not a forecast, it provides a framework for what a strong recovery phase could look like. More importantly, a move of that magnitude would likely signal that the bear phase has ended and that the market is transitioning back into expansion.

As always, the focus should not be on a single outcome, but on the shift in conditions.

After months of downside, the balance is beginning to tilt. March may have been modest in percentage terms, but structurally, it was one of the most important months in this cycle so far.

In the News

Aussie Super Funds Eye Bitcoin

A long standing gap within the Australian superfund industry has been its lack of exposure to Bitcoin and digital assets. Despite global momentum, most funds have remained on the sidelines, offering little to no access for clients. That may now be starting to change, with Hostplus reportedly exploring the introduction of digital assets as an investment option.

If implemented, this would mark a meaningful shift. Superannuation represents a significant pool of capital, and even a small allocation to Bitcoin could drive notable demand. While AMP introduced Bitcoin exposure back in 2024 and faced backlash from traditional players like Vanguard, the landscape in 2026 is very different. Adoption has accelerated globally, and Australia now appears to be moving in the same direction.

Tether Moves Towards Full Audit

Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, has announced it will undergo its first full independent audit conducted by a Big Four accounting firm. This is a major step forward for transparency within the digital asset space, particularly given the systemic importance of stablecoins to market liquidity.

Following the stablecoin legislation introduced last year, this move sets a higher standard for accountability and trust. As institutional involvement continues to grow, these developments play a key role in strengthening the foundation of the industry and reducing long standing concerns around reserve backing and stability.

Oil Becomes the Pressure Point

As a result of the Middle East conflict, crude oil has become a focal point for global markets. The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly 20% of global oil flows, has faced disruption, driving a sharp increase in prices.

Crude surged to highs of $120 and is currently trading around $100. With the conflict showing no signs of slowing, some analysts are now projecting significantly higher prices, with prediction markets assigning a 21% probability of oil reaching $200 at some point this year.

The implications of this are broad. Rising oil prices feed directly into inflation, increasing costs across nearly every industry, from transport to manufacturing. This adds further pressure to an already fragile macro environment and reinforces the importance of assets that can operate outside traditional economic constraints.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in March 2026:

Bitcoin increased by 1.83% in March
Ethereum increased by 7.07% in March
PAX Gold fell by 12.8% in March
Hyperliquid was the clear standout up 17.03% in March
The total crypto market cap grew by 1.89%

Video of the month

Australian Banks Are Blocking Bitcoin Purchases…Here's What They Don't Want You to Know.

Adam Hudson and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Understanding Correlation

One of the most important concepts in markets, yet one of the most overlooked, is correlation.

Correlation measures how assets move relative to each other. When assets are positively correlated, they move in the same direction. When they are negatively correlated, they move in opposite directions. This relationship underpins how capital is allocated across markets.

Traditionally, the structure has been clear.

Bitcoin has largely traded as a risk asset, often showing a strong positive correlation with equities. At times, this correlation has been as high as 0.6, meaning Bitcoin and the S&P 500 were broadly moving together. When equities sold off, Bitcoin typically followed.

That relationship is now starting to break down.

As the recent conflict escalated, the S&P 500 moved lower, yet Bitcoin continued to absorb capital. The correlation has not disappeared, but it has weakened significantly, now fluctuating between 0.28 and 0.49. This is a meaningful shift and signals that Bitcoin is no longer tightly bound to equity market behaviour.

As shown below, this breakdown is clearly visible, with correlation becoming more unstable and less predictive of Bitcoin’s direction.

At the same time, Bitcoin is not behaving like a traditional safe haven either.

Gold, which typically benefits during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, has not shown a consistent relationship with Bitcoin. The correlation between the two remains unstable, frequently shifting between positive and negative territory.

This reinforces an important point.

Bitcoin is not simply replacing gold, nor is it behaving like equities. It is beginning to trade independently.

As shown below, the lack of a stable correlation with gold highlights that Bitcoin is still in a transition phase, carving out its own role within the global financial system.

This is a critical shift.

Under the old framework, Bitcoin was viewed as a high risk extension of equities. Under this emerging framework, it is becoming an asset that does not cleanly fit into traditional categories.

For investors, this changes how Bitcoin should be viewed.

If you are only watching equities or gold to understand Bitcoin, you are likely to misread the market. The relationships that once defined its behaviour are no longer as reliable.

The key takeaway is simple.

Do not just track price, track relationships. Correlation tells you how the market views an asset. And when those correlations begin to shift, it is often the earliest signal that a larger structural change is underway.

Right now, Bitcoin is in that transition.

And understanding that shift is what separates reacting to the market from positioning ahead of it.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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The Rake Review: February 2026

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 11:12:03 +1100

How Strong Is Your Bitcoin Conviction?

February was a true test of conviction for Bitcoin investors, forcing participants to revisit the reasons they entered the market in the first place. As historic records were set to the downside and bears tightened their grip, weak positioning was exposed and long term conviction was challenged.

A Test of Conviction and Psychology:

When it comes to Bitcoin, buying it is easy during a bull market for most retail investors, following the headlines, the hype and especially the fear of missing out (FOMO) in an uptrend. The bear market reveals those who really lack conviction and confidence in their Bitcoin purchases and will weed those out.

For the first time since 2018 and only the third time in its history Bitcoin has closed five consecutive red months. Not only this but it has also seen a historic day occur. Moving $10,000 USD from open to close in a single day. But unfortunately for the bulls these are not records that were desired.

Now down 50% from all time highs seen just five months ago, sentiment is at an all time low with single digit fear and greed readings. But Bitcoin remains above $60k, those who have conviction remain strong in the market and are taking advantage of these discounted prices.

Before we get into what smart money and those with conviction are doing, let’s take a look at what happened the last time we saw this many consecutive red months.The previous occurrences came in 2011 and 2018, both of which ultimately printed six red months and coincided with the latter stages of bear market bottoms before new expansion phases began. That isn’t to say that Bitcoin can’t extend its streak of red to longer than five or six months but it is yet another sign that we are closer to the cycle bottom than a top.

These are the times where smart money is doubling down on their conviction, it doesn’t matter if you have been in the market for multiple cycles or if you bought the top of the last one. Conviction is conviction, discounts are discounts. Those who did buy the top are using these periods to accumulate more Bitcoin and reduce their time spent underwater significantly, a deeper dive of how this can be achieved can be found in our recent Morning note here.

Conviction is not about perfect entries. It is about recognising value when it is in front of you and having the discipline to act. Greed exists during bear markets, people who stay sidelined as they wait for lower prices risk missing out on the major discounts altogether. Windows in bear markets close sooner than most expect. Whilst the chance of a further drawdown does exist, those who get allocated at discounts will often be in a much better position than those who tried picking the bottom and ended up missing it.

History shows that bottoms are processes, not single candles. They are built through exhaustion, disbelief and time. Five red months, a 50% drawdown, and a $10,000 single day move are not comfortable conditions. They are the conditions that test patience and expose weak positioning.

The market does not reward comfort. It rewards preparation.

This phase is separating reactive capital from strategic capital. The former waits for headlines to improve. The latter builds exposure when sentiment is washed out and risk to reward begins to skew favourably.

No one rings a bell at the bottom. But when fear reaches extremes, volatility expands, and multi month weakness stretches conviction to its limits, historically that has marked the late stages of corrective phases rather than the beginning of new euphoric cycles.

The question each participant must answer is simple. Are you reacting to price, or positioning for the next expansion?

Because when momentum returns, it rarely offers the same discounts twice.

The Rise of AI and Its Impact on Bitcoin:

A hot topic of February was the rise of AI and the threat it poses to many things we know and love within the world. Tech stocks faced the brunt of the concern and bearish price action as a result of something as simple as a post on X.

Claude AI introduced their Claude Code Security through an X post. The immediate aftermath saw $15 billion wiped from leading cybersecurity stocks including Palo Alto, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare. Beyond cybersecurity, IBM experienced a 13% single day drop, its worst day since 2000, after Anthropic launched its programming AI tool.

The market reaction was swift and ruthless. Narrative risk alone was enough to reprice entire sectors.

So the question naturally arises. Is Bitcoin next?

The harsh truth is that AI will continue to improve. It will create new products that replace existing ones. It will threaten business models and displace jobs. That evolution is not speculative, it is inevitable.

So could AI create a new blockchain or coin and replace Bitcoin?

The simple answer is no.

Consider how many altcoins have been created over time with the explicit goal of improving Bitcoin. Faster throughput, better scalability, enhanced programmability, lower fees. Yet none have succeeded in replacing it. Almost all have trended toward zero against Bitcoin over time.

It would be no different if AI were involved. Whether a human instructs AI to build a superior blockchain, or autonomous systems collaborate to design their own digital currency, the challenge remains the same.

Bitcoin is not dominant because it has the most advanced code. It is dominant because it has the strongest network.

Nearly two decades of uptime. A globally distributed node network. The largest and most secure proof of work hash rate in existence. Deep liquidity across spot, futures and ETF markets. Integration into corporate treasuries and institutional portfolios.

AI can optimise software. It can simulate economic systems. It can produce technically elegant consensus mechanisms. But Bitcoin’s moat is not purely technological. It is social, economic and game theoretic.

The Lindy effect applies. The longer Bitcoin survives, the more likely it is to continue surviving. It has endured exchange collapses, mining bans, regulatory hostility and internal ideological splits. Each crisis has reinforced its resilience.

Replacing Bitcoin would not simply require better code. It would require convincing miners to redirect hash power, institutions to rotate balance sheets, ETFs to migrate capital, developers to abandon infrastructure, and millions of holders to exchange the hardest digital monetary asset ever created for something unproven.

That is not a product upgrade. That is a global coordination problem.

AI is more likely to enhance Bitcoin than replace it. It can improve security tooling, optimise mining efficiency, strengthen Lightning infrastructure and refine on chain analytics. In many ways, AI could accelerate Bitcoin’s maturity.

The more realistic short term impact is narrative competition. Capital follows attention. If AI continues to dominate headlines, speculative liquidity may rotate toward AI related equities and tokens.

But Bitcoin is not a software company. It is a monetary network.

Monetary networks are not replaced because something faster appears. They are replaced when trust breaks. And nearly twenty years in, Bitcoin’s trust layer remains intact.

AI will reshape industries. It will create disruption and volatility.

But replacing the most secure and decentralised digital monetary network ever created?

That bar is far higher than writing better code.

February Extends the Red Streak. Can March Reverse Momentum?

We mentioned that Bitcoin has now printed a fifth consecutive red month, with February closing down 15% and price falling to levels not seen since October 2024. Conviction continues to be tested as bears maintain short term control of the market.

Momentum is clearly to the downside on the higher timeframes. Lower highs have formed, rallies are being sold into, and sentiment remains fragile. But as history shows, it is precisely these environments that tend to offer asymmetric opportunities. We now turn to March.

Historically, March has not been the most consistent month for Bitcoin. Only six of the last fifteen March closes have been green. However, those green months have been significant, strong enough to skew the average March return to +10.9%. In other words, whilst the probability of a green month is not dominant, when March does perform, it performs meaningfully.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ni2ffVNe/

The chart above highlights the position Bitcoin currently finds itself in. Price is trading within a clear bearish structure on the daily timeframe, with resistance overhead and momentum yet to convincingly shift. The market is cautious, liquidity remains thin on rallies, and volatility expansion suggests another decisive move is building.

Yet bearish structure and opportunity are not mutually exclusive.

We have covered extensively in our Stormrake Morning Notes why accumulation during periods of compression and fear can provide a structural edge. Whether you are a new entrant looking to build exposure, an investor who bought higher and is currently underwater, or a multi cycle participant with deep conviction, these environments reward strategic positioning rather than emotional reaction.

If you are underwater, periods like this can materially reduce your breakeven level through disciplined accumulation. For new entrants, these are prices that were considered unattainable just months ago. And for those with experience, there is little need for persuasion. You understand that volatility is the entry fee for asymmetric upside.

It is also worth remembering that Bitcoin has never printed more than six consecutive red months in its history. On previous occasions where streaks of this magnitude ended, they coincided with the latter stages of bear markets and preceded significant upside expansions.

This is not a definitive bottom call. Nor are we suggesting that if March closes green the path lower is permanently closed. Markets do not move in straight lines, and macro headwinds still exist.

What we are saying is this. Five red months. A 50% drawdown. A $10,000 single day move. Single digit fear readings.

Historically, environments like this have been far closer to long term opportunity than late cycle risk. Volatility remains elevated. Uncertainty remains high. But from a cycle perspective, we are statistically and structurally much closer to the bottom than the top.

In the News

US Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariffs

Last month we highlighted the pending US Supreme Court decision regarding President Trump’s tariff authority, with prediction markets assigning roughly a 35% probability that the ruling would favour the administration. The decision has now landed, with the court determining the tariffs were unlawful.

However, policy uncertainty did not end there. In response, Trump announced a fresh round of global tariffs at 10%, before subsequently increasing them to 15%. Whilst the legal question may have been addressed, trade tensions remain unresolved. Markets dislike uncertainty more than they dislike bad news, and the back and forth continues to inject volatility into risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Geopolitical Tensions Return to the Middle East

Risk off sentiment returned as tensions escalated once again in the Middle East, involving Iran, the US and Israel. The United States has deployed one of its largest naval presences in the region in decades, whilst Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered immediate market reactions. Bitcoin sold off sharply during the escalation whilst PAXG has begun to rally again.

Jane Street Under Scrutiny

Jane Street, a dominant quantitative trading firm and key liquidity provider across both traditional and crypto markets, is reportedly facing potential claims exceeding $1 billion linked to its alleged role in the 2022 Terra Luna collapse. In addition, market participants have pointed to repeated sharp Bitcoin moves around 10am EST, aligning with the US equity open, raising questions around cross asset liquidity dynamics.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in February 2026:

Bitcoin fell 15% in February
Ethereum declined 20% during the month
Stablecoin dominance increased by 17% in February
PAXG stood out, rising 10% whilst the majority of the market closed red
The total crypto market capitalisation fell by 13%

Video of the month

Bitcoin Is Going to $35,000. Here's Why I'm Buying. - Money Markets & Mayhem and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Real World Bitcoin Adoption

One of the most common questions surrounding Bitcoin is simple. How do you actually use it? It is also often framed as criticism by those unfamiliar with the ecosystem. You cannot spend your Bitcoin, so what is the point?

We have consistently reinforced Bitcoin’s core value proposition as a monetary asset. It is decentralised, scarce, censorship resistant and transferable without reliance on a central authority. That foundation alone resolved one of the biggest problems in finance, sending value peer to peer across the globe without needing permission from a bank or intermediary.

There is no debate around the success of that use case.

However, adoption does not stop at holding. Utility evolves.

The real innovation has come from the development of Layer 2 infrastructure, particularly the Lightning Network, built on top of Bitcoin to improve speed and scalability. Lightning enables near instant transactions with extremely low fees, making everyday payments practical in a way that base layer transactions were never designed to handle at scale.

Lightning does not replace Bitcoin. It enhances it.

By moving transactions off chain while still ultimately settling in Bitcoin, Lightning dramatically increases throughput. Payments that once required waiting for confirmations can now be completed in seconds. Fees are often fractions of a cent, opening the door for microtransactions and real world retail usage.

And the growth is measurable.

As shown in the chart above, estimated monthly Lightning volume has expanded from just $12.1 million in August 2021 to $78.2 million in August 2023. By November 2024 that figure had surged to $286.5 million, and projections for November 2025 stand at $1.17 billion.

That is not theoretical adoption. That is exponential growth.

But volume alone does not tell the full story.

The Lightning Network has evolved from an experimental scaling solution into a fully developed industry layer built on top of Bitcoin.

The growth of Lightning is not just visible in transaction volume. It is visible in real world usage.

As explored in our piece “One Steak Sandwich and a Side Of Bitcoin Please”, Bitcoin is no longer confined to online transfers or speculative holding. It is being used in physical environments, from restaurants to retail counters, where customers can pay instantly via Lightning by scanning a QR code.

What once required a card terminal, a bank intermediary and processing fees can now be settled peer to peer in seconds.

Major exchanges have integrated Lightning deposits and withdrawals. Wallet providers have refined user experience across both custodial and non custodial options. Payment processors allow merchants to accept Bitcoin and instantly convert to local currency if they wish, removing volatility risk whilst benefiting from lower fees and zero chargebacks.

For everyday users, the process is simple. A Lightning enabled wallet, a small Bitcoin balance, and the ability to transact globally without restriction.

In emerging markets, Lightning is being used for remittances and small business transactions. In developed economies, it is increasingly used for retail payments, online services and tipping. The use cases are expanding quietly rather than loudly, which is often how real adoption takes hold.

The idea that Bitcoin cannot be spent is outdated.

The infrastructure exists. The usage is growing. The real world examples are no longer theoretical.

Bitcoin remains digital hard money at its base layer. But through Lightning, it is also becoming a practical and scalable payment network that can function in day to day life.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: June

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 19:50:11 +1000

How Washington and the Middle East Shaped June’s Bitcoin Market

As with much of the first half of 2025, June's price action was largely influenced by news and decisions from the White House, alongside ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, but it has set itself up for a potentially bullish second half of the year.

A Month Shaped by Macro Headwinds:

June was a month of notable volatility, with macro catalysts flying left and right. Every other day, a new announcement seemed to shock the markets. Despite this, Bitcoin remained relatively steady throughout, which should be viewed as a positive. Bitcoin lived up to its reputation as digital hard money in June.

The month began with the aftermath of May’s late pullback from its all-time high, opening the door for both bulls and bears to fight for control. However, neither side seized the opportunity until another macro catalyst rattled the market: a fallout between US President Donald Trump and his right-hand man, Elon Musk. Words were exchanged on social media, and the once-strong bromance seemed over. Risk-on markets panicked, giving bears the upper hand.

That said, Bitcoin and the market soon realised the absurdity of the feud. The fact that a dispute between two high-profile figures could cause such disruption highlighted the market’s vulnerability, but Bitcoin quickly bounced back into its consolidation range. After breaking out, Bitcoin continued its ascent and was knocking on the door of its all-time highs. Then, conflict in the Middle East escalated, with Israel launching a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear sites and other military targets and Iran launching ballistic missiles at Israeli cities in response. The risk-off sentiment returned quickly. Gold surged to new all-time highs, while crude oil spiked by 20% in two days. Yet, despite the rally in risk-off assets, risk-on assets didn’t react in the same way as in previous geopolitical crises. Traditional indices largely shrugged off the conflict, with the S&P 500 pulling back by less than 2% and the Nasdaq by 3%. Bitcoin showed a similar response, losing 11% during the conflict—far less than its usual reactions to global tensions. In the past, Bitcoin had dropped over 10% in a single day during such events. This 11% drop, over the course of the entire conflict, demonstrated the asset’s growing maturity.

In fact, these corrections should be welcomed, as they often lead to smart money accumulating Bitcoin while altcoins underperform. Historically, these corrections have been short-lived. Bitcoin has consistently recovered and pushed higher, typically within 60 days of such events.

Let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s performance during some of the most volatile macro events over the past five years:

While each event has triggered immediate volatility, Bitcoin has repeatedly persevered and rewarded those who took advantage of these short-term dips. In many cases, Bitcoin had recovered to break-even or positive just 10 days after the event. Two months later, the asset was in positive territory every single time. This is why we remained bullish despite the correction caused by the Middle East conflict—and will continue to be bullish during future events that may rock Bitcoin.

July Market Outlook: Ready for a Bullish Turn?

June proved to be another valuable lesson in holding strong with conviction and capitalising on corrections. With Bitcoin already up 10% from its monthly low, it’s now knocking on the door of all-time highs, setting the stage for what could be a strong second half of 2025.

We enter July with bullish momentum, but the market structure remains a cause for concern, still under the control of the bears. June underperformed its average, returning only 2.42%, and confirmed the bearish structure with a series of lower lows and lower highs, driven by negative macro catalysts.

Not only are we closing June, but we’re also finishing the first half of 2025, up 14.50%. While this is an improvement, it’s far from the explosive growth many had anticipated for the year. However, July could present the perfect opportunity for Bitcoin to finally live up to those 2025 expectations. With clearer tariff policies, settled interest rate expectations, and conflicts winding down—with a ceasefire between Israel and Iran confirmed, and Trump pushing for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, possibly in July—the fundamental catalysts are looking favourable for Bitcoin. Additionally, the global money supply continues to expand, and the US debt has now surpassed $37 trillion.

Historically, July has been a bullish month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the past fourteen July's returning positive gains. Those months that saw negative returns experienced relatively small drawdowns, with four of them dropping by less than 10%, and the largest drop being 16%. On average, Bitcoin has returned 8.26% in July.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Jw54wXkh/

Bitcoin bounced perfectly from the fair value gap identified last month, which corresponded with the monthly low. At present, Bitcoin is trading just at $107K, only a small percentage away from its all-time high. If Bitcoin can replicate its average July return of 8.26%, we could see new all-time highs around $116K. This aligns with the new CPR (Central Pivot Range) target of $117K and the key Fibonacci extension level of 1.414, which sits just above $118K.

However, before we talk about new all-time highs, Bitcoin must first break the current bearish structure and establish a new higher high above $110.6K. If Bitcoin creates another lower low, it will reinforce the bearish structure and likely trigger another sell-off. But if a new higher high is established, Bitcoin should continue pushing higher, potentially creating a new all-time high and venturing much further.

Stablecoin GENIUS Act Passed:

Amid the chaos in the Middle East this month, something significant passed under the radar—the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, or the Genius Act. One of the key promises of the Trump administration was to provide clearer regulations surrounding cryptocurrency, and it’s safe to say that promise has been delivered.

The purpose of the Genius Act is to establish the first comprehensive federal framework for regulating payment stablecoins in the U.S. The act aims to provide regulatory clarity, enhance consumer protections, and promote innovation, all while ensuring financial stability. Some key features of the bill include:

A clear definition of payment stablecoins
Reserve requirements (stablecoin issuers must hold 1:1 reserves)
Licensing requirements
And more

The bill has the backing of influential figures such as Senator Cynthia Lummis, as well as USDC issuers Circle and Coinbase. On the other hand, anti-crypto Senator Elizabeth Warren was a vocal critic of the bill, though to no avail.

The stablecoin industry is a $250 billion market, making up roughly 8% of the entire crypto market cap, with USDT in the lead and USDC in second place. The new bill opens the door for potential new competitors to challenge the dominance of these two major players. For general users, it could make stablecoins a more mainstream form of payment, while also providing compliant, regulated options that offer more clarity and safety, helping to avoid future collapses like Terra's UST in 2022.

Although this bill does not directly impact Bitcoin, its passage is undoubtedly a positive step for the broader crypto space. It signals a promising shift towards more thoughtful regulation within the industry and demonstrates that lawmakers, as well as major institutions, are increasingly supportive of pro-crypto bills. We can expect more legislation in the future, whether it’s further bills around Bitcoin, decentralized finance, or broader crypto clarity within the U.S. This marks a significant step toward fulfilling Trump’s promise of making the United States the home of cryptocurrency according to his administration.

In the News:

Circle IPO performance:

Source: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/chart/CRCL

Circle made waves in the traditional market space this month following its initial public offering (IPO). The company debuted at $31 on June 4th, quickly rallying to over $100 within the first day of trading before closing at $83. Since then, Circle has continued its remarkable upward trajectory, benefitting significantly from the passing of the Genius Act. As the primary issuer of USDC, the stablecoin bill has propelled Circle's stock, which is now trading at $180—up from its debut price in less than a month. Just a week ago, Circle reached a high of $298.99. It’s safe to say this has been one of the most successful IPOs in recent memory.

Big Beautiful BIll passed:

Source:https://www.usdebtclock.org/

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a key legislative priority for President Donald Trump, advanced in the Senate, with a 51-50 procedural vote. Despite concerns over its fiscal impact, the Senate’s version of the bill includes permanent extensions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, new tax breaks for tips and overtime, and significant spending on border security and defence. The bill is projected to cost $4.45 trillion over a decade. Critics—including Democrats and some Republicans—argue that the steep cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, combined with a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase, disproportionately harm low-income Americans while favouring the wealthy. This has sparked significant controversy, with the Senate now debating amendments ahead of a potential passage deadline on July 4, 2025.

Texas officially has a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve:

Texas has officially become the third US state to establish its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), further demonstrating the growing institutional and political integration of Bitcoin. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has expressed expectations that the state will invest tens of millions of dollars into Bitcoin through this publicly funded reserve. However, the Texas SBR differs from the federal version established by Trump in January. The Texas reserve is funded through state funds and voluntary contributions, aiming to diversify Texas's finances. In contrast, the federal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve uses seized crypto assets to strengthen national economic security—without tapping taxpayer dollars.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in June 2025:

Bitcoin rose just 2.42% in June.
Ethereum fell 1.62% in June.
Cardano fell out of the top 10, replaced by Lido Staked Ethereum.
Bitcoin dominance is at a multi-year high at 66%.
The total crypto market cap grew by just 1.15% in June.

Video of the month:

Jack Mallers Speech at BTCPrague

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Education - How to use Bitcoin:

Source: @Mr Curious

There are many who have heard of Bitcoin, and some choose to ignore or discount it. Among those who invest in it, even fewer truly understand its purpose and utility.

Most Bitcoin investors see it as just a speculative asset—one that has outperformed nearly every other investment over the years—and they're right. But Bitcoin is much more than just a speculative investment; its use case extends far beyond that.

Bitcoin was initially created as a means of exchange, designed to operate away from centralised third parties. It was intended to be exchanged peer-to-peer and to be inflation-proof, thanks to its fixed supply of 21 million tokens, making it immune to manipulation by any central authority.

Means of Exchange:

Bitcoin’s primary use was as a means of exchange, and even though its price has exploded over time, this hasn’t changed. Bitcoin remains a key peer-to-peer method of exchange. Regardless of its dollar value, Bitcoin can always be used as a means of exchange, and its divisibility ensures that it can serve even for smaller transactions.

Bitcoin is divisible to eight decimal places, with one Bitcoin consisting of 100 million satoshis. At current prices, one satoshi is worth approximately $0.00107 USD. This shows the incredible flexibility of Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. Whether you’re buying a coffee or paying for a service, all you need is a Bitcoin wallet, and you’ll always have access to a decentralised means of exchange—without the need for any third parties.

Store of Value:

Bitcoin as a store of value has been criticised by many skeptics who point to its volatility and bear markets as evidence that it cannot fulfil this role. While it’s true that Bitcoin is volatile and has experienced severe drawdowns, it’s incorrect to claim that it can’t function as a store of value.

Those who understand Bitcoin have been using it as a savings vehicle. With fiat currencies constantly devaluing, Bitcoin’s price appreciation against these currencies has proven its potential as a store of value. Long-term holders (Hodlers) have welcomed market corrections, viewing them as opportunities to accumulate more Bitcoin at lower prices.

A classic example of Bitcoin’s store of value can be seen in its purchasing power over time. Take a look at the chart below:

Australian Median House Price in Bitcoin (2014-2024)

In 2014, over 3,000 Bitcoin was required to buy the median Australian home. Today, less than 10 Bitcoin is needed to purchase the same home. Meanwhile, house prices in AUD have steadily increased over the past decade. This clearly demonstrates Bitcoin’s purchasing power growth compared to the declining purchasing power of fiat currency. This trend isn’t limited to real estate—everyday goods and services exhibit the same pattern, showing that Bitcoin has not only protected purchasing power but enhanced it.

Collateral & Borrowing:

For those who understand Bitcoin’s potential but are unsure how to spend it while retaining its value, the solution lies in using Bitcoin as collateral. Similar to using property as collateral, you can leverage your Bitcoin holdings to acquire fiat currency without having to sell or dispose of your Bitcoin.

As the crypto ecosystem has expanded, Bitcoin-backed loans have become widely available. This allows you to borrow fiat currency based on the value of your Bitcoin holdings, meaning you can continue to spend without parting with your Bitcoin. An added bonus is that borrowing against Bitcoin is not considered a taxable event.

The True Power of Bitcoin:

In its relatively short lifespan, Bitcoin has proven that it is much more than just a speculative investment. The ability to use Bitcoin as a means of exchange has been fundamental from the start—and will remain so. Bitcoin continues to defy critics who claim it isn’t a reliable store of value, and it has solved the key issue that many Bitcoin holders faced: how to extract value from Bitcoin without selling or disposing of it. By using Bitcoin as collateral, it is now possible to unlock the liquidity of your Bitcoin while preserving it as a store of value.

Yes, Bitcoin has proven to be an excellent investment asset, but it is also so much more.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.