Stormrake - Insights #James Ryan

Bitcoin, BOJ Yields, and the Yen: The Next Financial Tug-of-War

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 16:49:57 +1100

Between the deluge of Japanese Bond Market volatility, yields spiking to highs not seen since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, a potential new Fed chairman and the re-opening of the US Government after the longest shutdown in history; we’re at a pivotal crossroad that’ll set us up for a monstrous 2026 and beyond. Bitcoin has seen significant volatility recently, both to the downside and upside in a very short period of time. While the uninformed and over-leverged investors have mostly been chopped up with recent price-action, we’re exceedingly pleased with how our clients at Stormrake have ridden out the waves of volatility with certainty and confidence knowing where all these short-term macro-headwinds take Bitcoin’s price in the long-run. Our long-term thesis for Bitcoin’s future hasn’t changed despite all the recent headlines and Crypto twitter doom-posting narratives that’re to be expected when people get flushed out at bottoms; not knowing the true value of what they’re holding. We’ve seen it during the 2017 bear market after the altcoin ICO bubble popped, also during the Terra Luna and FTX collapse of 2022. Once again, we’re cutting the wheat from the chaff while the market takes some time here to test the resolve of all its participants, both big and small bag holders alike. Those that remain steadfast with their pre-defined strategies and hold resolute to their future goals have always been greatly rewarded in time. Bear markets are where the future bitcoin millionaires are made, but as is the case with everything in life - nothing good comes easy. Patience and consistently by adding to position sizing has and always will be key to take full advantage of the opportunities that present themselves during this volatile time period. Understanding the macro-economic conditions, especially the Japanese Bond market and the potential strengthening of the US Dollar will play an important role in determining the direction and trend of risk-on assets such as Crypto in the short to medium term. Let’s take a look at how the Bond market is fairing across the pond in the land of the rising sun.

As Japanese yields are starting to teeter into all-time high territory, the market is reacting with bearish sentiment until this starts to un-wind. The yield spiking is a direct result of the direct selling pressure to offload treasuries given the somewhat hawkish pivot for Japan to unwind its Yield Curve control in the last few years and catch up with the rest of the developed world by having relatively higher rates to combat inflation.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/igmFGsxv/

This is particularly significant for global markets because Japan has long been a source of cheap credit. As the Bank of Japan moves toward unwinding its Yield Curve Control (YCC) and allowing yields to rise, it creates a ripple effect in global liquidity. The unwind of these policies reduces the availability of inexpensive capital for carry trades, where investors borrow in yen to buy higher-yielding assets in other countries. With rising yields in Japan, borrowing costs for these trades increase, forcing investors to deleverage and sell off risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. This tightening of liquidity puts downward pressure on risk-on assets, leading to heightened volatility and bearish sentiment across global markets.

Now apply that same principle directly to the strengthening US dollar versus a weakening Japanese yen. This is a systemic tightening of global financial conditions that directly impacts the appetite and capacity for risk, as opposed to a simple currency move.

A strengthening USD relative to the yen represents a deepening imbalance in the global funding system. For decades the yen has been the base currency for cheap leverage. Investors borrow in JPY at near-zero rates, convert to USD, and deploy the capital into higher-return assets: US equities, Emerging-Market assets, credit products, and increasingly Bitcoin.

When the USD strengthens significantly against the yen, the first-order of effect is straightforward: yen-denominated liabilities grow more expensive in USD terms, while USD-denominated assets must work harder to cover the same debt. This pushes leveraged players, especially carry traders, into a corner. They can no longer rely on exchange-rate stability to keep profits intact.

As the USD/JPY pair rises, anyone who borrowed yen to buy risk assets suddenly finds that the funding currency is weakening, and the asset currency is strengthening. In theory this sounds favourable, but only when the move is slow and orderly. A sharp or persistent USD surge tells the market something different: that liquidity conditions globally are tightening, that the Bank of Japan is losing control of yield compression, and that the probability of policy intervention or higher funding costs is rising. This is where the structural stress begins.

Another way we’re able to observe the structural decline of the Japanese Yen relative to the USD is simply by looking at the USD/JPY chart. This FX pair is one we’ve been eyeing for a number of years now and has proven to be highly effective as a barometer for broader market volatility, given its correlation to large macro-economic market swings for traditional markets.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ava8fiXi/

The amount of confluence on this chart is quite staggering; not only have you got a breakout of a 25-year long accumulation breakout to the upside, an Inverse head and shoulders bullish pattern that successfully completed, along with another breakout that’s now launched straight into price resistance with ease, you’re also currently looking at price-action coil upwards - appearing to get ready for another significant push higher, of which there’s very little headwind resistance above. A third swing-higher here will be a large move and will likely maintain the Yen carry trade for a while longer as the USD appreciates in value compared to the JPY, which could potentially signal a green light for risk-on markets to keep printing higher, despite the rising BOJ interest rates. Naturally, at some point the BOJ will need to back-stop a depreciating Yen if it keeps losing value rapidly, however they’ll need to tread lightly as domestic Japanese wages are still very low compared to other developed Asian countries, and a rapid increase in interest rates like what we saw here in Australia over the last few years would likely ravage an already tepid Japanese economy. This is good for Bitcoin in the long term and plays neatly into our BTC strategy for 2026 and onwards.

Bitcoin has taken the opportunity to correct and retrace to some excellent short-term buying opportunities over the past few months since the October 6th all-time-high, coming in at a whopping $126,000 USD per Bitcoin. Whilst this price push was short-lived, we stayed vigilant in not buying into the emotional euphoria and remained level-headed in our risk approach towards the market. Only four days later after printing the all-time-high we saw the largest liquidation in Crypto history ever on October 10th; where over $19 Billion USD worth of forced liquidations occurred from over-leveraged buyers that were far too exposed to downside risk, likely chasing the wave and coming in too late to the party. This is why Bitcoin blew out over the two weeks prior to the liquidation, as BTC held our aforementioned $108K support in late September and then launched into a massive +16% in the following two weeks. Conservative investors were taking profits during this time as we correctly identified the potential risk of a Wyckoff distribution pattern forming - of which, has since come to fruition. This is how the pattern forms from a textbook example.

Now let’s see how Bitcoin’s Price-action compares…

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/STNqKz28/

This was a bearish setup and conservative positions have since been rewarded with lower prices to add to position sizing with steep discounts. We can see it mirrored the setup near perfectly, although it was missed by many external retail participants due to the late-stage bullrun mania. This is exactly why remaining cool, calm and collected when adding to position sizing remains one of the most underrated skills in investing - as opposed to getting caught up in the “one more pump” mentality which saw bandwagoners take unnecessary hits to their PnL. The two solutions to this problem that plagues 95% of investors is simple; don’t use leverage, and always dollar-cost-average down, rather than up. While Bitcoin is holding in a price channel currently, let’s strategise an optimal path and determine how price-action might progress from here over the coming months based on BTC’s historical performance from previous bear market cycles.

After the selling cascade which lasted throughout the month of November, we eventually saw BTC find its temporary bottom at $80,537 on November 21st. Since then, we’ve been range bound and in an upwards channel trying to break the mid-$90K zone without any success.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cJHnjHpG/

Whilst the bottom came in and has since held our weekly support zone between $88K to $86K, of where we anticipated a potential higher low - ultimately our predicted bounce from here was to be expected sooner rather than later due to seller exhaustion. This doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods quite yet. Headwind price resistance still plays a major factor as on higher time frames we still remain in a downtrend despite the current short-term grinding higher. This channel BTC is stuck in is known as a “Bear Flag” pattern; quite the opposite of the “Bull Flag” structures we saw Bitcoin doing consistently throughout 2024, which saw it continually breakout to the upside getting us to six-figure Bitcoin prices in USD terms for the first time in history. These Bear Flags as you might surmise tend to break to the downside given they’re a bearish structure. If we see another selling cascade over the coming months which validates the pattern, investors can expect to see Bitcoin running the low $70K price range where more significant liquidity resides before another bounce may come into effect. This scenario would be highly correlated with the previous bear market if it plays out.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/MtAeTLWC/

During that time, BTC initially sold off, commencing its bear-market at the end of 2021, with a Q1 rally slowly grinding higher within a bear flag-like channel over the course of 91 days, before eventually completing the bearish pattern by spilling to the downside. This coincided with the Terra Luna collapse of May 2025, sending BTC plunging hard and fast from $48K down to $17K, in the red over -63% over just a few short months until June 13th where it found more liquidity at the 2017 highs. Once here, it formed another temporary bottom providing relief to HOLD’ers, until FTX collapsed five long months later; widely considered a result of the brutality that occurred earlier in the year which started the dominos falling.

In saying that, not every current cycle is designed to perfectly mirror the last - whilst the market does rhyme, it’s not always a 1:1 recreation, meaning in this instance a more substantial short to mid-term pump very well could be on the cards if buying momentum maintains strong here, before we then potentially go lower, so long as the market does eventually give us some very juicy prices at generational lows at $70K or below. This intermittent rally can be common in the earlier stages of bear markets, and is known as a “Failure-to-gain” rally. This is because whilst we get a strong move up, it doesn't take out the previous highs - essentially meaning the market prints a lower high before continuing the downward trend into lower lows.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/IMCQXsZl/

Whilst at first glance this might seem like bad news, it absolutely isn’t. This type of market price-action gives both bulls and bears an excellent opportunity to capitalise off volatility, before getting even better long-term entries to add to their bag sizes before the next generational Bitcoin bull market begins. Volatility = opportunity, and seasoned traders/investors can make the most out of this brief window of time to ensure they’re on the right side of the trade at all times. When generation lows do come, if you’ve made the right decisions along the way, you’ll hopefully have the most amount of capital available to you at the bottom - then loading up the truck becomes much more viable as you can scoop up what little BTC supply is available then, given the asset will get even more scarce, whilst other retail investors likely wait until it’s too late to pile in again at astronomical prices. Getting ahead of the curve in a bear market is arguably even more important than during a bull market cycle. Consistency and patience is rewarded usually in spades for those that execute and keep increasing their position sizes, this will be paramount over the next 9 - 12 months. Don’t get caught out again, just like those that waited for sub $10K BTC in 2022, just to end up buying back in at all time high prices yet again…sometimes a price too low really is too good to be true.

In the coming months we’ll be looking at what viable generational low targets might look like, and depending on how price action behaves over the next few months, we will outline a number of likely scenarios using historical price performance to get a head start on strategizing what the next most optimal moves are for this market moving forward into the years ahead. One thing will remain unchanged; Bitcoin is extremely well positioned to take advantage of the aggressive repricing of global asset valuations currently taking place. Gold and Silver bulls waited nearly two decades for the current skyrocketing prices where long-term participants that remained steadfast in their positions for as many years are now quite easily doubling their position valuations every couple of months - and consecutively too, all in just a short span of time. Time in the market will always remain the single most important aspect to long-term investing, and that’s been proven true for Bitcoin from cycle to cycle over its 17 year long existence. The only tangible edge available to investors is execution: staying liquid, staying disciplined, and being able to act decisively when the market offers sublime windows of opportunity that close as soon as the market regains stability. That is exactly where Stormrake fits. When price is moving fast in either direction, we make it simple to accumulate, rebalance, or scale out with intent through a private, professional desk built for high-conviction decision-making. Direction is noise - but access, timing, and consistency are the best advantages for long-term success in this industry.

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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Markets Whiplash as Bulls and Bears Battle for Control

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 13:26:47 +1000

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Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.239)

Source : https://www.tradingview.com/x/1MOE1RB5/

HBAR went straight into our expected Support Zone of ~ $0.23 and bounced right off - a beautiful and predictable technical play. Could it still be choppy from here - yes. But the setup is there now for a sustained move higher. If it can survive the next couple of days of volatility without losing trend before the rate cut, then this could become an excellent play very quickly.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/aUYp4e3N/

Bitcoin held our $114K local trend support as outlined in yesterday’s article, and attempted to make a push higher back to $116.7K shortly after; however it wasn’t able to crack above the previous local High and saw a sell-off in the later part of the day. This ended up in a spill that in-fact made a Marginal Lower Low of $114.4K, but the discounted opportunity for buyers to come in again and scoop up was too good to miss - leading to a modest 1% pump. Now we sit and wait to see if that move lower was the beginning of a larger pullback into Daily support at $112.6K, or do the bulls hold the line here and keep buying before the FED’s meeting? We’re getting close now…

BTC Total ETF Flows for 12 Sep: $ -1.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin's Big Week with Big Moves Ahead

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 13:25:32 +1000

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Bitcoin is holding steady here in anticipation for the FED meeting later this week, sitting comfortably at $115K within it’s new-found support range. Gold also remains resilient despite the minor sell-off this morning currently sitting at $3,633 at time of writing. Silver, whilst currently sitting at $42.16 also remains steady after last week’s push higher into this price range. Markets are taking some profits here at the start of the week considering last weeks substantial push higher which is to be expected. Healthy ranging of price in the lead up to the FED’s policy meeting later this week is likely to continue.

U.S. Indices have started consolidating sideways in a similar fashion. The S&P 500 after pushing higher early this morning to 6,601 has now eased off slightly, slipping back to 6,584. The sideways move is being viewed as constructive ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this week, with short-term profit-taking offset by steady buying interest. The Nasdaq doing the same thing, pushing somewhat higher to 24,141, to mark another all-time high and then back down to 24,091 currently. In Crypto; Bitcoin and Ethereum also traded sideways, with consolidation seen as a healthy setup after recent gains, as traders await clarity from the Fed’s policy meeting come early Thursday morning our time.

Markets are now pricing in a > 96% probability of a Fed rate cut at this week’s meeting, with expectations still centering on a 25-basis-point reduction. Such a shift would mark a clear policy pivot, lowering borrowing costs and injecting fresh liquidity into the financial system. For equities, this would likely reinforce the risk-on rotation already underway, while in crypto, looser financial conditions historically provide a tailwind for Bitcoin and altcoins. Precious metals like gold and silver may also benefit as investors hedge against the longer-term inflationary effects of easier policy.

Bitcoin now comfortably sitting in a range that’s higher than the range of previous weeks gives further credence that it’s setting up for a big move on the Fed news, along with the rest of Risk-on assets. The broader altcoin market has shown increasing strength over the past several sessions, with capital rotating out of Bitcoin into higher-beta tokens. While BTC has largely consolidated, major altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have posted steady gains, alongside notable rallies in mid-cap names. This shift highlights a pick-up in risk appetite, as traders look beyond Bitcoin for higher returns, a pattern often seen in the early phases of broader crypto uptrends. The outperformance of altcoins relative to BTC suggests investors are becoming more willing to rotate into higher-volatility assets; is a dynamic typically seen in the later stages of a bull market.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.239)

Source : https://www.tradingview.com/x/1MOE1RB5/

HBAR has now sold-off at our local trend resistance of $0.245. Despite the temporary wick and trading above this level, it’s clear a smaller pullback into what’ll likely be a Higher Low is the play for the coming days ahead. If HBAR can healthily come into our support zone ~ $0.23 and then rally along with the rest of the market, that would be an excellent setup for a sustained move in the coming weeks ahead.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/zu1sdLEF/

Bitcoin continues to hold trend within a new-found range of support between $112.6K and $116.1K. Despite a temporary push through this level three days ago, the healthy profit-taking on the way up meant this move couldn’t be sustained in the very short-term. Trend is still up, however a pullback to the daily level at $112.6K also wouldn’t entirely be out of the question if we lost the temporary support we’re currently sitting on at $114.7K. Lets see what setup the market volatility gives us in the days ahead. In brief periods such this, waiting and seeing how the markets ebbs and flows around a significant macro-event becomes an extremely viable strategy once again.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 12 Sep: $ 642.4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Alt Coins Take the Wheel as Crypto Rally Accelerates

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 10:25:08 +1000

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Bitcoin continues it’s move higher making local Higher Highs, now setting it’s sights on $117K - demonstrating Risk-on appetite is back. Gold has started getting some bullish momentum too along with the broader markets. Whilst closing out the day at $3,634, it’s apparent it’s accumulating here and likely anticipating a larger move higher. Silver as we stated yesterday was playing catch-up, and that’s exactly what it did. Accumulating higher and closing at a local peak of $42.19, it’s strength is undeniable now. We’re looking to see Silver start breaking major decade-long resistance sooner rather-than-later along with broader markets fully rotating to Risk-on assets in the coming months ahead.

U.S. Indices have continued their move higher as the leaders of the pack. Whilst the S&P500 might’ve technically closed the day in red at 6,584; the way in which price is moving makes clear that it only went sideways for the day because of the previous day’s breakout pump. This is healthy and means on smaller timeframes whilst short-term profit taking is happening, buyers keep coming in to ensure another sustained pullback here doesn’t take place. We expect it to keep moving higher, and with a stronger focus now on Risk-on assets, the Tech stocks that comprise the NASDAQ solidified this rotation - closing the day in the green at 24,096, yet another All Time High price.

The FED’s Meeting is less than 5 days away now, and markets continue to keep pricing in the high likely-hood of a rate cut, giving relief to the markets and a strong narrative that despite a weakening labor market, the FED are willing to commit to a pivot on their multi-year hawkish policy stance and give the people what they want. Odds of a 25 basis-point cut keep rising, today sitting at > 93%.

Bitcoin continues to make local Higher Highs as well, along with the rest of Risk-on assets, demonstrating the expected capital-flow is taking place. Not only is Bitcoin looking strong again, but Alt coins are really soaking up the buying volume over night, with the TOTAL 2 Market cap (All Cryptocurrency, excluding BTC) finally getting a juicy pump and making a technical All Time High. This simply means that all of Crypto that isn’t BTC is seeing significant buying volume come in now. Some of you know this as the enigmatic “Alt Season” and if this is the beginning stages of it - in typical “textbook” fashion, it’s right on time.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.245)

Source : https://www.tradingview.com/x/TY7CPYqx/

HBAR has now hit our local trend resistance of $0.245. Whilst this level might provide some short-term temporary resistance, as long as the lows made over the last two weeks hold, and we then get a sustained breakthrough above of this level, that’ll be enough to confirm the bullish reversal higher. It’s possible if we keep seeing this Risk-on rotation in Alts that it might come sooner rather than later. We’ll be keeping a close eye on what it decides to do next from here.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/FttT85Ez/

Bitcoin continues to hold trend and making Higher Lows, followed by Higher Highs. Naturally, there was some small profit taking during yesterday’s trading, however BTC managed to make a Higher Low by holding $115K as support and then pushing into a local Higher High getting us right up to $116,800. We’re currently getting some more healthy profit-taking here, but holding above the previous Highs made yesterday. Now, we’re getting that “stair-case” effect up that we mentioned in our previous articles - an excellent signal that momentum continues to shift in the upwards direction in the lead up to the FED’s meeting next week.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 12 Sep: $ 377.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

CPI Comfortable at 2.9%, Rate Cut Now Almost Certain

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 13:51:13 +1000

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Bitcoin yesterday was showing signs of strength - now today it’s BLASTING OFF! Finally getting out of it’s month long correction, we’ve seen the first solid reversal in price since August 14th, with price sitting at a comfortable $116K now and climbing. Gold had a day of mostly sideway price action, closing for the day at $3,634, whilst the Risk-on markets soaked up all the good news from the CPI data overnight. Silver however continued to close the day out in the green again at $41.56, and seems to be accumulating upwards in price now - further positioning Silver as a precious metals “Catch-up” play, after the already monstrous Gold rally we’ve seen all year long.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items rose 0.4% month-over-month in August (seasonally adjusted), up from 0.2% in July. Whilst this might’ve initially been cause for concern to a projected doveish FED, the year-over-year data came in as forecasted at 2.9%, therefore giving markets the certainty that inflation data whilst being somewhat-sticky isn’t worse than expected. This data-delivery at forecasted levels is all the markets needed to soar overnight and feel comfortable that the FED will in-fact deliver at least a 25 basis-point rate cut come next week with odds of this sitting at juicy 92.7% currently.

As markets now almost certainly expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a rate cut at its upcoming meeting, with 25 basis points seen as the likely outcome - The FED will likely monitor inflation closely over the coming months to ensure they are moderately easing whilst being mindful of a weakening U.S. job market. The is a strong signal to Risk-on markets that the short-term bullish momentum is back on the table, with U.S. Indices getting pumps and daily breakouts of their respective ranges shooting up with green daily closes. The S&P500 closed for the day at an all-time-high of 6,588, meanwhile the NASDAQ also saw it’s highest close at 23,989.

Bitcoin Bulls didn’t hold back overnight and saw us finally confirm a reversal of the month-long rut it’d been stuck in. Certainty around the inflation data coming in was enough to confirm a bullish reversal back to the upside, smashing past the $113K resistance zone. This has comfortably landed us at $116K at current point in time of writing, and likely to continue higher from here now as we inch closer to the FED’s monetary policy decision next week.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.241)

Source : https://www.tradingview.com/x/2wS4J281/

HBAR continues to try and buck-the-trend, seeing it push higher into our local trend resistance at $0.245. The rest of the Risk-on markets pumping on the positive macro data is propping up HBAR and seeing us get very close to our level. As long as we don’t sell-off again and make new Lower lows after hitting this trend resistance - hopefully for HBAR HODL’ers, this will be the move you’ve been looking for to get it back on track for Alt Season.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/JnbeWe77/

Bitcoin twitter is now saying “We’re so back!” That’s how quickly sentiment can shift in this space, with price continuing the pump after the excellent CPI print last night. As of trading this morning, we’re getting strong bullish momentum follow-through landing us currently at $116K and breaking well above the previous Highs of the last few weeks. This is exactly what you’d like to see in order to confirm the move higher. We’re going to start looking for higher targets now in the coming days and weeks ahead - so stay tuned!

BTC Total ETF Flows for 11 Sep: $ 186.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

PPI Shock: Inflation Gauge Crashes Below Forecasts

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 13:10:05 +1000

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Bitcoin is showing it’s strength again in the aftermath of much lower than expected PPI data, reaching a peak last night of $114,300. Gold had a green day given the news, closing at $3,640. Silver also closing in the green at $41.16 - again, holding steady and accumulating sideways likely waiting for a FED rate cut next week to solidify a continuation of bullishness.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in for August and rocked the markets; U.S. wholesale inflation cooled far more than analysts expected with the PPI falling -0.1% month-over-month, after a revised +0.7% rise in July. Year-over-year, PPI came in at +2.6%, well below the ~3.3% forecast. The drop in service prices, especially the margins for wholesale and retailers was a major contributor. Energy prices also eased slightly, whilst goods were up a modest amount.

Markets now widely expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a rate cut at its upcoming meeting, with 25 basis points seen as the base case and growing speculation around a potential 50 basis point move as we pointed out to readers in our Morning Note yesterday. While the quarter of a percent cut seems most probable, it’s hard to ignore the increasingly dovish possibility of a larger cut - and what that would deliver to the market in terms of sentiment-shift from the FED and their firm stance on monetary policy. Inflation was their number one concern, and with excellent data coming in thwarting this narrative, it’ll be extremely advantageous for Risk-on markets like Cryptocurrency if we see a larger than expected cut in the short-term.

Bitcoin Bulls held the line yesterday and came in swinging to defend the $110K zone, actually getting us trading above the elusive $112K resistance for the first time in weeks. Clearly the softer-than-expected inflation data helped tremendously with this - and we hope so see the CPI data that comes in tonight sing a similar tune. If so, and we see Bulls keep up the buying strength overnight, we might finally have enough momentum to put the last month of trend chop behind us as we enter clearer skies ahead.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.234)

Source : https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZKw3C1Ld/

HBAR is trying to buck-the-trend and reverse back up, however it’s not out of the woods quite yet. A nice sustained push above the MA 20 is the first step, however it’ll need to gain local trend resistance at $0.245 in order to actually reverse back into a bullish stance. Keep a close eye on this in the wake of the looming CPI data tonight.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/i4UyjS5W/

Bitcoin finally made a sustained push above the $112K-$113K zone and sees us currently sitting healthily around $114K. While small timeframes such as the 1hr chart are starting to look better, we need to see this follow through to bullish reversal structures on the Daily and Weekly timeframes in order to ultimately confirm the upside reversal in the short-term. Hopefully, if CPI data comes in lower than forecast tonight, that’ll give the market the extra nudge it needs to keep moving higher so we can get a broader confirmation and have twitter proclaiming “we’re so back” once again.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 Sep: $ 530.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin Hits the Brakes While Rate-Cut Bets Accelerate

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 13:35:33 +1000

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Bitcoin gave us a nice push higher yesterday, however in early hours of trading this morning it’s started struggling yet again at the $113K price resistance. Gold kept up momentum yesterday to reach a local peak of $3,674, however it closed the day in the red giving back most of the day’s gains. With Silver still sideways waiting for a clearer direction, getting a small pullback and re-accumulation in precious metals here with looming macro-data uncertainty wouldn’t be out of the question.

Trump’s Truth Social gained some notable traction with a recent post overnight sharply criticising Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the central bank’s broader independence. Trump argued that if the Fed had followed his policy recommendations back in early 2021, rates would have risen sooner and the current economic environment would look very different. He labeled the Fed “broken” and outdated, accusing Powell of incompetence for relying on lagging data and rigid frameworks.

Trump’s dismissal surrounding the position of the Fed’s independence is suggesting that protecting the institution’s autonomy means little if its policies are misguided. To bolster his critique, Trump cited market analysts Jay Hatfield and Greg Faranello, both of whom echoed the view that Powell was late to raise rates and is now dragging his feet in cutting them. Their commentary pointed to expectations of steep rate reductions ahead, possibly in the range of 50 to 100 basis points. The S&P500 and NASDAQ both closed in the green for the day in response with modest gains again < 1%, although the indices are ultimately still rangebound for the time being.

Bitcoin Bulls keep getting punished on these attempted moves higher on smaller timeframes. It’s clear that exhaustion is setting in, but the uncertainty surrounding the pending macro-data surely isn’t helping either. If selling keeps picking up momentum over the following days, it’s more likely current support won’t hold - alternatively; if we can hold major price support with the CPI and PPI over the coming days and ride out the volatility without losing too much ground, a solid relief rally might just be in order.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.227)

Source : https://www.tradingview.com/x/9rSESUYa/

HBAR got a small push higher on the day and attempted to push past the MA 20 that we outlined in yesterday’s Morning Note, however as expected the resistance was too strong and the move failed. The Daily candle gave back exactly 3% on the wick, despite closing in the green on the daily. Clear signs that the market is hunting for stronger support below.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/A9Be3cT0/

Bitcoin held the Higher Low we were predicting yesterday, however as expected the $113K also still remains too strong to blast through at this stage - resulting in a sell-off that made the 1hr timeframe lose it’s trend that it’s been building over the last few days. The Marginal Lower low will need hold and pump off here sooner-rather-than-later to stave off a prolonged bearish reversal over the coming days. It’s a great thing we told readers to wait for confirmation yesterday because last-minute price slamming like this can happen! Let’s see if the bulls are ready to defend the line here or have they rallied their efforts towards lower support…

BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 Sep: $ -146.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Nasdaq Moves to Tokenise Wall Street

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 12:44:09 +1000

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Bitcoin is showing the first signs of life that we’ve seen in a while, finally starting to base out with higher lows and small pushes to the upside. Gold on the other hand - no surprises here as it printed yet another all time high price sitting at $3635 on the daily close. Silver is still hovering around the $41 range, likely waiting to see if Gold and sustain this move higher over coming days before deciding if it wants to continue the rally short-term; however bulls are in control for now so don’t fade the trend just yet.

NASDAQ’s announcement that it has filed with the U.S. SEC to allow tokenised trading of stocks and ETFs spurred a positivity in the last few hours. The NASDAQ rose about 1.5% on the news, giving market confidence to investors that it’s incorporating Web 3.0 elements into it’s security offerings. Truly a paradigm shift that old-heads in this space have dreamt about for well over a decade. The pendulum has swung the other way for good and there’s no going back. If this get’s approved; you can expect a large move in the Crypto space to solidify the narrative shift.

U.S. Indices are largely still rangebound over the last few weeks, signaling to the market that while long-term trend remains risk-on; market participants are also likely waiting for more confirmation surrounding economic data to decide on which direction a broader move is going to take place. Yesterday did close as another green day, albeit with small gains of < 1% for the S&P500 and NASDAQ. CPI data later in the week will be the main focus, until then - expect more market chop and indecision from short-term traders and scalpers.

For the Bitcoin to bottom sooner rather than later around these prices, we’ll need to it keep basing out with Higher Lows. Small pullbacks in price are healthy and needed, however we need to see it creating a “stair-case” effect on smaller timeframes before pushes higher to ensure it has a solid foundation. If this can sustain over the coming days and survive the pending CPI data and volatility that’s sure to follow-suit, then it’s far more likely we see prices keep on creeping higher. If Alt coins keep outperforming during this time, then that’s also further confirmation you’re definitely in the later stages of a bull run.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.226)

Source : https://www.tradingview.com/x/WzytBIAK/

HBAR is still fighting with overhead resistance that was previous support. A small bounce of approximately 3% was confirmed on the daily close this morning, however it’s clear the Moving Average 20 is also acting as short-term resistance, leading to a small rejection again in the last few hours.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/wyMJeF9d/

Bitcoin got another push above $112K again overnight after holding yet another Higher Low and ultimately reached a short-term peak of $112,927. It’s currently pulling back, however is this just another Higher Low forming before making a serious move higher - or is it going to get sold off again between now and tomorrow’s morning note? Let’s wait and see for confirmation!

BTC Total ETF Flows for 8 Sep: $ 332.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin Creeping Higher on Weak U.S. Job Data

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 11:33:42 +1000

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Bitcoin initially took well to the news of lower than expected NFP Data, however this rally like most rallies since August 14th was short-lived. Gold on the other hand continues to act as a safe-haven hedge, printing fresh all-time highs again with a strong daily close, along with Silver still largely following in tandem. With Silver now hitting strong Monthly resistance at $41, we’ll need to pay close attention to see if any price pullback here is short-lived before pushing higher and trying to takeout the 2011 All Time Highs; or perhaps a somewhat steeper correction may be needed first before trying to break the $50 mark.

Similar to Bitcoin, both the S&P500 and NASDAQ initially took well to the news of weak US Job data, however those gains we’re quickly given back to the market - and then some. Both indices respectively took a 1.37% and 1.67% hit in the trading hours that followed after the news broke, although both are still holding price support levels and are seeing a modest bounce as of this moment despite the weekend sell-off. Markets ultimately remain uncertain with this type of volatility, with no clear short-term trend direction for the time being.

While Tariff uncertainty keeps rocking the boat, the good news is that the U.S. and Japan has come to an agreement on automotive imports. Trump signed an Executive Order over the weekend to reduce imports to 15%, cementing the July agreement between both parties. In return, Japan has committed to investing $550 Billion in the U.S. economy further solidifying cooperation between the two nations.

If price can keep the momentum up without giving too many of the intra-day gains away, it’s possible that the Risk-on rotation could be back, although moves higher need to see the bulls follow-through with continued buying in order to confirm a trend reversal back up in the short-term. Macro data keeps pointing to a FED rate cut mid-September; ultimately being a good thing for Risk-on assets long term. Until then, we’re looking for a clean and sustained push higher to boost market confidence short-term so that we can see a positive-sentiment momentum shift to get those juicy late-cycle pumps.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.218)

Source : https://www.tradingview.com/x/n1DY5KWP/

HBAR followed through to the downside with it’s bearish momentum cross as we predicted despite trying to get a pump with BTC, giving away a further 3% of it’s push into the previous support. With short-term trend confirmed bearish and rejecting off it’s previous support lows, the bears seem to have control until it can re-gain trend.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/UUswbVTI/

Bitcoin briefly pushed above $112K over the weekend, although it couldn’t sustain the Bullish momentum, giving way to a 2.80% correction shortly after. Buyers have stepped in again at $110,100, however again - BTC fails to push through $111,500. After falling back into our range between $109.5K and $112K, it’s clear more consolidation is required before deciding which way we go in the near future.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 5 Sep: $ - 160.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Ethereum: The “Digital Oil” of the Modern Age

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 16:27:40 +1000

Since the last bull run in 2021, Ethereum (ETH) has undergone a quiet transformation. It is no longer just a smart contract plaƞorm for DeFi experiments and NFT collectibles – it’s steadily becoming the core infrastructure layer for stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), the bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and blockchain ecosystems.

This shift is ushering in a new era where institutions, governments, and fintech plaƞorms are turning to Ethereum for asset issuance, settlement, and liquidity. To put it simply, it is already reshaping the way global value flows across markets.

Ethereum’s Growing Role in Stablecoins

Stablecoins are digital tokens that track the value of fiat currencies like the US dollar. They are critical for crypto trading, remittances, cross-border settlements, and as a hedge against crypto market volatility. Among the vast number of blockchain plaƞorms available today, Ethereum remains the dominant home for stablecoins.

Major stablecoins like USDC, USDT, DAI, and PYUSD are primarily issued on Ethereum, taking advantage of its security, composability, and widespread developer support. In fact, more than 60% of stablecoin transaction volume flows through Ethereum’s mainnet or Layer 2s. Why? Because Ethereum offers the best blend of decentralization, scalability, and regulatory flexibility for stablecoin issuers and users alike.

Institutional adoption is reinforcing this trend. Visa has begun settling cross-border payments using USDC on Ethereum. PayPal’s PYUSD – their very own dollar-backed stablecoin is launched as an ERC-20 token on Ethereum. These moves highlight Ethereum’s role as the settlement layer for digital dollars, which could soon be the on-chain equivalents of real-world fiat currencies.

Tokenizing Real-World Assets on Ethereum

Beyond stablecoins, Ethereum is becoming the go-to network for tokenizing real-world financial assets, including but not limited to; U.S. Treasuries, private credit, gold, and real estate.

This trend, known as Real World Asset tokenization, or simply RWA allows traditional assets to be represented as tokens on a blockchain. These tokens can then be traded, borrowed against, or used in DeFi protocols. Ethereum’s security, smart contract flexibility, and mature infrastructure make it the obvious foundation.

A few high-profile examples include:

BlackRock’s BUIDL tokenized U.S. Treasury fund, which runs on Ethereum
Franklin Templeton’s tokenized money market fund, issued as an Ethereum-based token
Ondo Finance, which tokenizes U.S. Treasury yields and allows investors globally to gain exposure through Ethereum wallets

This movement turns Ethereum into a compliance-aware, globally accessible financial operating system - something that didn’t exist in TradFi or crypto just a few years ago.

What’s Changed Since the 2021 Bull Run?

Several key upgrades and ecosystem developments since 2021 have paved the way for Ethereum’s integration with traditional finance:

The Merge (2022) - Ethereum transitioned from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, cutting energy use by over 99% and aligning with ESG mandates, making it more palatable to institutional allocators.
EIP-1559 (2021) - Introduced a burn mechanism that removes a portion of ETH used in transaction fees, especially during high network activity. This has created periods of deflationary pressure on ETH supply, in-turn making it scarcer with better supply vs demand token-omics
EIP-4844 (2024) - Enabled proto-danksharding, which significantly lowers data costs for Layer 2 rollups, making Ethereum-based applications more scalable and affordable for users and enterprises.
Explosive Growth in Layer 2s - Networks like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base now host major stablecoin and RWA projects, thanks to lower gas fees and Ethereum-grade security. These rollups settle back to Ethereum mainnet, reinforcing ETH's position at the center.
Better Institutional Tooling - Solutions like Fireblocks, Chainlink CCIP, and KYC-enabled smart contracts have matured to meet the compliance needs of financial firms operating on-chain.

How This Affects ETH’s Price and Long-Term Value

Ethereum’s growing use as infrastructure is not just technical, rather it has clear implications for ETH, the underlying asset.

ETH as Fuel: Every stablecoin or RWA transaction on Ethereum or its Layer 2s burns a bit of ETH through gas fees, especially during periods of high activity.
ETH as Collateral: As stablecoin and RWA protocols grow, they increasingly rely on ETH for liquidity, governance, or backing.
ETH as Staked Capital: Institutions and individuals alike are staking ETH to earn yield, locking up supply and reducing sell pressure.

The combination of growing demand (for usage and staking) and declining issuance (due to burns and locked tokens) is seƫng ETH up for strong upward price pressure. Unlike speculative altcoins, ETH is building deep, real-world utility – now with institutional and retail investors noticing.

Ethereum Is Becoming the Internet Bond Layer

As stablecoins and RWAs move on-chain, Ethereum is not just keeping up - it’s becoming the standard. The network has evolved from a DeFi sandbox into the core infrastructure for institutional-grade digital finance.

This transformation means that ETH acting as both the fuel and the foundation of this new economy, it’s well positioned and quickly becoming the “digital oil” and reserve asset of a programmable financial future.

If Ethereum continues on this path, its relevance in global finance will grow dramatically, and in-turn so will the value of its native asset. Such as with ETH’s current price action, we just witnessed July give us an explosive rally over 65% from trough to peak for the month.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/WAIVuQm7/

From a low of $2,400 to a local peak just over $3,900, we’ve got the definitive confirmation that we needed on the charts now; the bottom is in. Trend has reversed back up with extreme buying volume, mostly consisting of Institutional ETF inflows, of which are breaking records daily now. Smart money is loading up the truck and they aren’t slowing down. Despite the recent liquidation sell off over the last few weeks, aimed at shaking out over-leveraged retail traders (a good thing), we are definitively now in an uptrend on all major timeframes, especially with that bounce overnight regaining local trend support.

In the short-term, we’re targeting a small retrace back down to $3,546 in order to keep building up support as we see things creep up higher.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/FQnfQVDu/

I suspect once we tag this short-term trend support, it will give us the solid structure we need to start pushing the ever-elusive $4,000 resistance zone that ETH has been stuck under all Bull run, however this time, with the expected late stage liquidation sell-off behind us, and Bitcoin Dominance continuing to fall (as outlined in previous articles) the timing of an Alt season combined with ETH’s resurgence isn’t a coincidence. We strongly believe it’s time to break through the $4,000 barrier sooner rather than later and into new All Time High’s.

Exciting times ahead to be sure. Keep a close eye on the charts and keep an eagled-eye out for more of our incoming articles over the coming weeks and months, because this train is about to get certified crazy sooner rather than later! (in all the right ways!)

Written by James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.