Stormrake - Insights #Jerome Powell

Powell’s Pause: Wait-and-See Mode Activated

Thu, 08 May 2025 12:20:16 +1000

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As anticipated, there was no rate hike overnight. Powell delivered his presser, yet markets remained steady and largely neutral. It may as well have been a non-event. Slightly hawkish, Powell remained conservative in his tone, with the core message centred around patience and a ‘wait and see’ approach.

The main takeaways from today’s decision and Powell’s presser are as follows:

Powell’s messaging offered little new, instead reinforcing a cautious stance that underscores the Fed’s current predicament. While the US economy remains healthy on the surface, he highlighted rising risks of both higher unemployment and inflation, even though these have yet to materialise in the data. The looming threat of tariffs—particularly tied to Trump’s trade manoeuvres—was a consistent theme, with Powell making it clear that external policy shocks could sharply alter the Fed’s path. Uncertainty dominates the outlook, and ‘wait and see’ has emerged as the defining narrative. Flexibility will be key, especially with stagflation risks beginning to simmer.

The next rate decision lands on 18 June, and markets are currently pricing in an 80% probability of no rate cut once again. Attention is shifting to the 30 July meeting, where expectations for a rate cut are growing. As of now, there’s only a 30.4% chance that the Fed holds steady again.

Bitcoin Update:

Bitcoin remained resilient overnight, holding its bullish structure and momentum, now sitting above $98K and closing in on the $100K milestone. Yet sentiment remains surprisingly cautious, with most retail still on the sidelines. It’s a stark contrast to the last time Bitcoin was here—euphoria dominated, retail was flooding in. But this time, Trump’s tariff drama has dampened broader investor sentiment. Bitcoin, however, doesn’t seem fazed. Just over 10% away from its all-time high, it’s only a matter of time before retail wakes up to Bitcoin’s strength—by then, it may already be printing new highs. Don’t sit on your hands. Get allocated.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($377)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/n0jnHWmO/

TAO is holding steady, trading around the same levels noted in yesterday’s morning note. In the past 24 hours, it retested the top of its consolidation range at $390 but failed to break above it, reinforcing that zone as a strong resistance. Still, TAO remains bullish and continues to coil beneath resistance. With strong bullish momentum across the crypto space, it should only be a matter of time before TAO breaks out and moves higher.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6fh6igbu/

Bitcoin sits right at $98K, continuing its steady march toward $100K. The 21EMA has acted as reliable support on pullbacks, confirming that bulls remain in control. BTC is currently testing a resistance band between $98K–$99K, an area with considerable sell pressure. However, given the strength of momentum, bulls are likely to push through and send price into six figures.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 7 May: $ + 105.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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Powell vs. Trump: Rate Cuts, Pressure, and the Limits of Power

Fri, 18 Apr 2025 17:07:06 +1000

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Since returning to office a few months ago, Trump has made it clear: he wants interest rates to come down—and he wants it now. But fortunately (or unfortunately), the decision doesn’t rest with him. That authority lies with the independent US Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell.

Despite Trump’s ongoing pressure—whether through speeches or sharp social media posts—Powell hasn’t flinched. He’s held firm in his stance, making it clear that the Fed will respond to economic conditions, labour market strength, and inflation data—not political pressure. Powell has reiterated this repeatedly at press conferences, brushing off Trump’s criticisms and continuing to operate by the principles that have long guided the Federal Reserve.

Now, the latest headlines have taken a sharper turn. Trump is reportedly seeking to fire the very man he once nominated during his first term. Overnight, he stated, “termination cannot come fast enough!” in a swipe at Powell, reacting to news that the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates for the seventh time. But Powell’s position isn’t easy to dismantle. As chair of an independent agency, he can only be removed “for cause”—meaning misconduct or failure to fulfil duties, not simply because of policy disagreements.

So it’s extremely unlikely Trump gets his way. Powell is expected to remain in his role and continue making data-driven decisions. What we can expect, however, is more pressure from Trump—most likely via social media and pressers.

Meanwhile in the crypto space...

Bitcoin had another quiet session, moving just 1% higher from the day’s open. We’re now six days into a tight Bitcoin range—just 3% wide—between $83K and $86K. We saw something similar in March: over a week of sideways action before a breakout, which at the time was sparked by tariff headlines. We could be looking at a similar setup again.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.05)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/qL4Uj1qQ/

Another day, another failed attempt for XRP to reclaim the 21EMA. Unless Bitcoin breaks out of its range and pushes higher, XRP looks set to retest the bottom of its range. The $1.98 level has only been breached once in the last five months—and when it was, XRP swiftly reclaimed it.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Kk9AzYHM/

Bitcoin has climbed from the range low and is now testing a key level at $85.2K. The slow grind up has brought a bullish momentum shift, marked by a bullish cross between the 21EMA and 55EMA. Should BTC break above this resistance, expect the top CPR resistance which has been resistance for the last six days. If it fails here, we could see a pullback towards the range low at $83.6K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 17 April: $ + 25.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin Stays Strong Amid 12-Year Low in US Consumer Confidence

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 11:39:43 +1100

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The past 24 hours have been volatile for Bitcoin, with a high of $88.5K and a low of $86.3K, marking a 2.5% range. Currently, BTC is trading just above $87K, with bulls maintaining control of the market structure. Sentiment is slowly improving, as the Fear & Greed Index approaches a neutral reading of 50.

US Consumer Confidence Drops to 12-Year Low

Source:https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cb-consumer-confidence-48

The key economic data of the week has just been released—US Consumer Confidence. While it hasn’t significantly impacted Bitcoin’s price, it provides insight into market sentiment over the next six months. The latest reading fell 7.2 points to 92.9, well below the forecast of 94.2, marking a 12-year low.

This drop suggests that US consumers are becoming increasingly pessimistic about current economic conditions. Historically, sharp declines in consumer confidence have preceded recessions, making this reading a potential warning sign. If people feel uncertain about the economy, they are less likely to spend or invest, which could have broader implications across financial markets.

While this doesn't necessarily mean a recession is imminent, it highlights growing concerns about economic stability—something to keep an eye on.

Gamestop Adds Bitcoin to Its Treasury

In a move that would have "broken the internet" in 2021, Gamestop has announced plans to allocate a portion of its $4.6 billion cash reserves into Bitcoin as a Treasury Reserve Asset.

Despite the significance of this decision, the market reaction has been muted, underscoring how much Bitcoin has matured in the past four years. What was once a revolutionary headline is now just another step in BTC’s mainstream adoption.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.44)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/qU1U34Nw/

XRP continues to consolidate, down 0.18% on the day. However, this sideways action is actually bullish as it remains above key moving averages and the midpoint of the broader range. This base formation could provide a strong launchpad for a retest of the range highs in the coming weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/eiitxHyS/

As expected, the $86.4K level provided strong support for Bitcoin yesterday, with the CPR and 55EMA preventing further downside. BTC then rebounded, rallying overnight—only to face resistance at the $88.4K CPR level, which had also capped price two days ago.

Following this rejection, BTC has posted four consecutive red candles, pulling back over $1.1K from the high. This price action suggests a potential double top formation, a bearish pattern where the price fails to break above a previous high and starts reversing downward.

If BTC loses $86.4K, this pattern would be confirmed, likely leading to a drop towards key support at $85.2K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 25 Mar: $ - 5.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Bitcoin Surges Past $88K on Positive Tariff News

Tue, 25 Mar 2025 11:04:29 +1100

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Bitcoin enjoyed some natural, news-free price action over the weekend. However, as we’ve seen multiple times this year, tariff announcements have once again influenced the market—this time, in a positive way.

As I mentioned yesterday, reciprocal tariffs are set to begin on April 2nd, but Trump has proven himself to be, as he put it, "flexible." Overnight, he stated that he "may give a lot of countries breaks on tariffs." On top of that, the White House is no longer expected to impose sector-specific tariffs as initially planned. Instead, the focus has shifted to applying reciprocal levies on a targeted set of nations that account for the bulk of foreign trade with the U.S. This strategic shift aims to address the $1.2 trillion U.S. trade deficit by mirroring the tariffs these countries impose on U.S. goods.

Following this announcement, markets took another leg up. Bitcoin surged to nearly $88.4K, gaining 1.2% within two hours of the news, while the S&P 500 closed up 1.76% on the day.

Trump has also reiterated his desire for Powell and the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, stating that the Fed would be “much better off” as tariffs “start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” as posted on his Truth Social account. However, Powell remains firm, reiterating that they will "wait and see" rather than pandering to Trump's requests. The Fed will act when it believes the time is right.

With the bulls naturally regaining momentum and tariff headlines finally favouring risk-on assets, Bitcoin is now positioned for a potential test of $90K before the end of March. Let’s not forget that Bitcoin hit $95K earlier this month—despite all the doom and gloom around the $76K low, Bitcoin remains green on the month and closer to its high than its low. Yet, sentiment still leans bearish.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.44)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/b4nTGI5r/

Despite the broader market rally, XRP has remained sideways over the past 24 hours. However, a modest 0.37% gain has allowed XRP to reclaim the 55EMA, an extremely positive sign. The foundation is set—XRP has established a solid base of consolidation above the middle of its range, with the 21EMA and 55EMA acting as key levels of support. This positioning suggests a move towards the top of the range in the coming weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/cqZw4Ff7/

Bitcoin ran up to a high of $88.8K overnight but failed to close above CPR resistance. It was subsequently rejected from this level, sending it back down to the 21EMA.

We've identified $88.5K (CPR resistance) as the key hurdle before a retest of $90K. The 21EMA at $87.4K remains a crucial support level—historically, this EMA has been Bitcoin’s first line of defense when moving higher, often catching pullbacks before bouncing.

If the 21EMA at $87.4K fails to hold, Bitcoin could see a deeper pullback towards the 55EMA and the lower CPR level at $86.4K, where stronger support lies.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 24 Mar: $ - 41.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Bitcoin Breaks $86K as Natural Price Action Builds Momentum

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 12:44:36 +1100

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Bitcoin has ticked over $86k after breaking through $85k just 10 hours ago. With no events or political catalysts driving the move, Bitcoin has experienced a weekend of natural price action. It has quietly reclaimed the upper boundary of the consolidation range it was stuck in earlier this month, and is now using that key level at $85.2k as support — potentially setting the base for its next leg higher.

With both sentiment and price action gradually improving, and assuming no unforeseen political turbulence, Bitcoin looks poised to retest the $90k level if market momentum is allowed to run its natural course.

While there are no major market-moving events scheduled this week, a few items are worth keeping an eye on. US Consumer Confidence data will be released Wednesday morning, which could provide insight into how consumers and the broader market are feeling a month on from the previous reading — which marked the largest single-month drop in nearly five years. This month, a 4.1-point decline is forecasted — not ideal, but less severe than the 7-point fall in February.

Looking ahead, Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are due to take effect on April 2nd. Given how unpredictable his messaging around tariffs has been — recently saying he is "flexible" on them — there’s potential for heightened uncertainty. Mixed signals like these tend to muddy investor expectations.

That said, Trump’s broader strategy appears to be coming into clearer focus, and investors are starting to gain a better understanding of his goals. Jerome Powell has also offered clarity on the Fed’s position, referring to the tariffs as “transitory” — a comment that may calm some nerves.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.43)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/5cTf6UXl/

XRP continues to consolidate around the midpoint of its broader range — a promising sign following its late-week push higher. It's now setting a solid base above both the 55 EMA and 21 EMA, as well as the mid-range level. This is a classic bullish consolidation.

If this structure holds while Bitcoin continues its quiet climb, we could see momentum flow back into XRP, pushing it toward the top of its range sooner rather than later.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/CUR2LnPa/

Bitcoin has just cleared a key resistance level at $85.2k — the upper limit of its recent range — and is now testing the CPR (Central Pivot Range) resistance at $86.4k. This level proved to be a hurdle less than a week ago and may once again offer some short-term resistance.

If BTC can flip this CPR resistance into support, momentum could accelerate and bring $90k within reach. Short-term metrics remain bullish, and the structure looks favourable so long as BTC holds above the former resistance — now key support — at $85.2k.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 23 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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SEC’s Crypto Task Force Holds First Roundtable with Industry Leaders

Sat, 22 Mar 2025 13:03:39 +1100

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One of Trump’s key election promises to appeal to crypto investors was to make the SEC more crypto-friendly and fire Gary Gensler—and these promises have been kept. Since stepping back into the Oval Office, Gensler has gone, a crypto-friendly chair has been appointed, and a new crypto task force has been created inside the SEC.

Overnight, the first roundtable was held by that task force, marking a major shift in tone. For the first time ever, the SEC sat down with people from the crypto industry to talk—not fight. No lawsuits, no threats—just an open conversation about how digital assets should be regulated. This is a big deal after years of heavy-handed enforcement under the previous administration.

The main debate focused on a long-standing issue: what actually counts as a security in crypto? Everyone agreed that Bitcoin isn’t one, as it’s fully decentralised. But when it comes to other tokens, the lines remain blurry. Some, like a16z’s Miles Jennings, argued that crypto needs its own set of rules, calling for a “technology-neutral” approach that recognises how different this space is from traditional stocks. Not everyone was on board, though. John Reed Stark, a former SEC enforcement official and long-time crypto critic, slammed the idea of changing the rules. He said the current securities laws from the 1930s work just fine and accused crypto companies of trying to delay and dodge regulation—arguing that “investors aren’t collectors,” and that the SEC’s job is to protect them.

Behind the scenes, political momentum is shifting too. Several lawsuits filed under the Biden administration are now being paused or dropped, and just the other week, Trump signed an executive order to build a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. While there’s still a long road ahead, this first meeting showed that the SEC is finally open to working with the crypto industry instead of treating it like the enemy.

Despite the headlines, the market hasn’t reacted much. Bitcoin remains stuck in its consolidation range after a bit of a nothing day, falling just 0.14% over the last 24 hours.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.39)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/SB9mfHdm/

XRP fell another 2.29% over the last 24 hours, sending it back under the 55EMA and into the lower half of its range. That said, it’s not a bearish picture yet. After forming a bullish structure recently, XRP now needs to create a higher low above $2.22 to maintain that outlook. If that level is breached, we could see a retest of the broader range lows. Still, XRP sitting in the bottom half of the range presents attractive levels for accumulation or dollar-cost averaging. If price drops further, don’t panic—this could be an opportunity in disguise.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/it7epdGY/

A very slow day for Bitcoin, closing just 0.14% lower than its open. BTC remains stuck in the broader range and is struggling to reclaim the monthly open, which is currently acting as resistance. That level also lines up with the 21EMA and 55EMA, both of which are weighing on price. The posture remains bearish for now. If BTC fails to reclaim the monthly open, we could see it fall below all major moving averages and drift lower within the range. A clean break above, however, could trigger another test of the range highs near $85.2k.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 21 Mar: $ - 21.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Bitcoin Bull Trap? Powell’s Dovishness Fades as Bears Strike Back

Fri, 21 Mar 2025 11:57:46 +1100

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Following Powell’s presser yesterday morning, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market enjoyed healthy gains, seemingly turning a corner. The dovish tone from Powell appeared to be the break Bitcoin needed to flip bullish, with BTC surging back above $87K and finally breaking out of its consolidation range. Many altcoins followed suit, rallying over 10%.

However, the move turned out to be a bull trap. Bears swiftly regained control, sending Bitcoin back into its previous range, now trading around $84K once again.

Adding to the market’s volatility, Trump spoke last night at the Digital Asset Summit, sparking speculation that he might announce zero capital gains tax on certain cryptocurrencies or offer a favourable stance on a US Bitcoin reserve. Investors were left disappointed as neither materialised, leading to further market declines.

Now back within the consolidation range it spent over 10 days attempting to break, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is fading. The latest lower high on the daily timeframe further strengthens the bearish case. With no major macro or crypto catalysts left this month, we can expect the market to play out naturally—assuming no surprise tariff changes or ceasefire announcements shift sentiment. Given the current bearish structure, risk-off behaviour could push Bitcoin back below $80K…

In other news, the first Solana ETF has launched in the United States, providing institutional investors with exposure to SOL. However, the launch has had little impact on SOL’s price, which has followed broader market trends and is currently down 6% on the day.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.43)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/UaH7QegE/

XRP is currently pulling back after an almost 12% gain the previous day and is now down 4.4%. It is testing both the middle of its broader consolidation range and the 55 EMA. If XRP can hold these support levels, the bullish structure remains intact, and momentum could push it back to retest the top of the range in the coming weeks. However, if it fails to hold and drops below the middle of the range, it risks invalidating the newly formed bullish structure, potentially leading to a move back towards the bottom of the range instead.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/RoowUF1F/

Bitcoin has fallen back into its range and now risks flipping short-term momentum back to the bears. To maintain its bullish structure, BTC must form a higher low above $83.6K—if it breaks below this level, the structure is lost, and momentum will likely follow. Failure to reclaim $85.2K resistance would confirm that bullish momentum is fading, increasing the likelihood of a move back to the bottom of the range.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 20 Mar: $ - 27.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Bitcoin Breaks Out as Powell Turns Dovish

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 12:06:13 +1100

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Bitcoin has finally broken out of its 10-day consolidation range following Jerome Powell’s press conference this morning. As expected, there was no rate cut, and market reaction hinged entirely on Powell—who did deliver. Bitcoin is up 5% on the day, with altcoins rising even more.

Powell’s tone surprised most investors when he used the term "transitory" to describe inflation and suggested that the Trump tariffs are unlikely to have a long-term impact. The Fed is in a good position to "wait for greater clarity" on the Trump agenda before adjusting policy. The expectation among FOMC members is that interest rates will end the year between 3.9% - 4.4%, up from 3.6% - 4.1% in December. This implies only one rate cut, but both Powell and the market have pencilled in two by year-end.

While tariffs have been a key source of uncertainty and bearish sentiment across markets, the Fed does not expect them to last—viewing them as temporary. This is an extremely bullish signal for markets in the long term. When paired with M2 global money supply expanding once again, it sets the stage for sustained growth in risk-on assets.

Bitcoin is currently trading above $87K, eyeing a reclaim of $90K—a highly bullish outcome after weeks of negative sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index now sits at 49, a massive recovery from the multi-year low of 10 just a month ago. A key takeaway: sentiment has rebounded dramatically, yet Bitcoin remains at a similar price level to when extreme fear dominated.

At the recent lows, many were calling for Bitcoin to break further into the $70K region, with some even predicting a return to the $60Ks. But as it so often does, Bitcoin has defied expectations. Have we seen the bottom? Not yet—we're not out of the woods, but we're making strong progress.

The market has priced in a 100% chance that there will be no rate change tomorrow, so we shouldn’t expect volatility from the rate decision itself. However, 30 minutes later (at 5:30am AEST), when Jerome Powell takes the stage to answer questions and provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance, we can expect the volatility to kick in, and the market direction could be determined. We expect Powell to signal that the Fed will remain patient, avoiding any rush to make rate decisions due to the ongoing uncertainty and volatility stemming from Trump’s tariff policies. The tone of his speech will be key—if Powell adopts a hawkish tone, risk-on assets could continue to pullback, whereas a dovish tone could lead to a rally in risk-on assets. Powell’s remarks might finally break Bitcoin out of the week-long consolidation range it’s been stuck in.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.53)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/iYhLlHzy/

XRP has had a massive 24 hours. First, the SEC lawsuit against XRP was dropped. Then, Bitnomial launched its XRP futures contract, marking the first-ever CFTC-regulated XRP futures product in the U.S. And finally, Powell’s dovish stance provided a tailwind for the entire market.

As highlighted in yesterday’s note, XRP needed to break above $2.47 to regain a bullish structure—and it has done exactly that. It has now flipped market structure bullish, reclaimed all major moving averages, and returned to the upper half of its broader consolidation range. With this momentum, a $3 retest is likely in the coming weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/nvjThpJR/

Bitcoin has broken through the key resistance level of $85.2K, confirming bullish momentum. If BTC sustains this rally, we should see a $90K retest soon. If not, $85.2K must hold as support to maintain the bullish structure.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 19 Mar: $ + 22.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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CPI Falls Below Expectations – Is Inflation Dropping?

Tue, 18 Mar 2025 13:12:17 +1100

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Last night, we saw the monthly CPI data release, with Core CPI MoM forecasted at 0.3%, headline CPI MoM at 0.3%, and YoY at 2.9%. All were expected to decline from February’s readings—and decline they did, even further than anticipated. Core CPI MoM came in at 0.2%, headline CPI MoM at 0.2%, and YoY at 2.8%, all below expectations, signalling that inflation has cooled over the past month.

Will this trend continue, or will anticipated tariffs drive inflation back up?

Source:https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar

Implications for Rate Cuts

What does this mean for potential rate cuts? With the upcoming FOMC meeting just a week away, the probability of no change was already at 97% before last night’s data. Now, it's up to 99%, with markets still anticipating the first rate cut in June.

Bitcoin’s Reaction to CPI Data

Bitcoin’s immediate reaction to the data was extremely volatile, spiking to $84.5K within the first hour of the release. However, as the market digested the figures, BTC retraced back to around $83K—where it had been trading for most of the previous day.

This event wasn’t inherently bullish or bearish for Bitcoin, but as expected, it brought volatility. BTC remains in a consolidation range between $81K and $85K, and a sustained break in either direction will dictate the trend.

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who have done so have reaped massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/0B67BHnL/

Despite a negative-looking chart, there are some positive signs for Sonic (S). The token is finding bids at the bullish order block, having fallen into it over the past three days but closing above it each time—a promising sign for what is a must-hold level.

If Bitcoin reclaims $85K, bidding S at these levels could be a golden opportunity—especially if the market turns bullish and S re-emerges as a leading project.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/FwRyxEFh/

On the hourly chart, Bitcoin is starting to show more signs of life, with a bullish cross of the 21EMA and 55EMA, as well as a higher high following last night’s CPI-driven volatility. A clear range has been established between the key support of $81.6K and key resistance of $85.2K.

Both levels are critical for bulls and bears—whichever side breaks first will determine the higher timeframe trend.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 12 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JD9E55MC/

Ethereum remains stuck in its range between $1,797 and $2,019, with bears still in control. The 55EMA has been a persistent challenge, rejecting ETH for the third time in two days. Structure and momentum remain on the bearish side for now.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 12 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

A 30-Day Ceasefire in Ukraine—Relief Rally or Bear Trap?

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 15:31:24 +1100

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Donald Trump vowed to end the conflict in Eastern Europe on day one of his presidency—an obvious hyperbole—but expectations remained that he would resolve it far more efficiently than the Biden administration. Overnight, news emerged that Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, coinciding with the U.S. preparing to lift its military aid restrictions on the country.

This development follows last week’s highly publicized meeting between Trump, JD Vance, and Volodymyr Zelensky, which reportedly turned into a heated exchange. After the fallout, the U.S. pulled military aid from Ukraine, prompting concerns across Europe about a prolonged war—fueling a rally in EU defense stocks. However, a minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine was soon signed, signaling potential progress.

Bitcoin Reacts as Ceasefire Boosts Markets

Since the ceasefire announcement, Bitcoin has surged nearly 5%, climbing from $79K to $83K. If Vladimir Putin agrees to the ceasefire as well, it could serve as the macro catalyst markets need for a broader turnaround. However, this may be only a short-term relief rally—the real question is: what happens when the 30-day ceasefire expires?

Despite this temporary surge, the bearish grip on markets remains firm, and broader economic uncertainty suggests any rally may be short-lived. We’re not out of the woods yet.

CPI Data Incoming: Will It Spark More Volatility?

Tonight, fresh CPI data is set to drop, with expectations pointing to declines across all three readings—a potentially bullish sign. The data release at 11:30 PM AEST is likely to inject volatility into the market, possibly providing Bitcoin the boost it needs to break out of its bearish structure.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6wntRlk5/

Sonic is currently holding above the bullish order block, a key level to sustain a higher low. If Bitcoin builds on its recent momentum, this could signal a retest of its recent highs—a positive setup for Sonic.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/qtUudBuD/

Bitcoin initially looked set to drop lower after rejecting the $81.7K level and the 55 EMA, falling to a low of $79K. However, the ceasefire news reversed momentum, pushing BTC to $83K.

Notably, the 21 EMA and 55 EMA are nearing a bullish crossover—the first since March 5. However, signs of bearish divergence suggest that BTC may face another pullback, reinforcing a lower high scenario.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 11 Mar: $ - 219.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JD9E55MC/

Ethereum bounced from a key support level yesterday but was rejected at the 55 EMA following the ceasefire-driven rally. ETH remains weak, underperforming Bitcoin, and still looks bearish.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 11 Mar: $ - 9.8 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.