Stormrake - Insights #Liberation Day

Bitcoin Stalls as Trade War Pressures Mount on Nvidia

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 11:02:22 +1000

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Another slow day for Bitcoin, slipping approximately 1%, with Ethereum and Solana both down 2%. BTC tested the upper range discussed yesterday but couldn’t sustain a break above $86K, and has since been knocked back. Meanwhile, tariff headlines continue to weigh on traditional markets.

Despite the 90-day pause, little meaningful progress has been made between the US and European Union. Brussels expects tariffs to remain in place, as talks remain stalled with no clear breakthrough in sight.

Nvidia: The Trade War’s Favourite Target

The biggest casualty of the ongoing US-China trade skirmish remains Nvidia. Just hours after the White House suggested Trump was open to resuming trade talks with China, he moved to ban Nvidia’s H20 chips from being sold to the region. These chips were projected to contribute roughly 10.9% of Nvidia’s revenue. Following the ban, that figure is expected to fall nearly in half to just 5.9%.

In after-hours trading, Nvidia dropped nearly 7%. What’s more suspicious is that just hours before the announcement, there was an $8 million surge in put volumes on the Nasdaq 100 ETF. As expected, it dropped sharply following the news—shedding 300 points. This kind of pattern has become familiar during Trump’s presidency, with tariff shocks seemingly pre-empted by insider traders capitalising ahead of time. It’s a glaring red flag for market integrity—but in today’s regulatory landscape, it appears to be legal.

All Eyes on Powell

Jerome Powell is set to speak tomorrow morning, and markets will be watching closely—not just for any monetary guidance, but also for his reaction to the ongoing tariff flip-flops. The crypto market has been range-bound since late last week, and the tone Powell strikes could finally provide the volatility needed to push Bitcoin out of this rut.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.08)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/jYd2hFm3/

A relatively quiet day for XRP, down less than 2%. It looks like XRP has confirmed a higher high on the chart. The current pullback must hold above the recent low at $1.72 to maintain the bullish structure. Fortunately, XRP has major support above that level, with both 200-day moving averages and the broader range floor in play. A higher low here would reinforce the bullish case, though momentum still sits with the bears for now.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GZXlgVlh/

We highlighted Bitcoin’s CPR range in yesterday’s note, and after failing to break above $85,800, BTC has printed nine red hourly candles in the last eleven. The breakdown below the lower CPR level at $83.6K signals that bears have recaptured short-term momentum. This opens up the possibility of a return to the next key support at $81.6K.

Still, bulls have two critical lifelines—the 200 EMA and 200 SMA—just above that level, offering strong potential for a bounce.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 15 April: $ + 38.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

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Bitcoin Ranges, Gold Rallies, USD Sees Worst Start in 30 Years

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 12:11:32 +1000

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A slow day for Bitcoin over the last 24 hours, with price deviating less than 1% from its open. The majors followed suit—Ethereum edged up 1.5%, while SOL and XRP posted gains of under 1%. Attention, however, was firmly centred on OM—and for good reason.

In traditional finance, most US equities opened stronger than Friday’s close but ultimately finished in the red. The S&P 500 marked another losing session, though it still sits higher than its Friday close—same story for the Nasdaq. Meanwhile, gold broke above $3,200 per ounce for the first time in history. It's now up 22% year-to-date, while most other assets remain in the red—including the DXY, which has fallen 8% since January. That marks its worst start to a year since 1995.

Trump’s strategy appears to be taking shape: devalue the dollar to boost US global competitiveness. But the trade-off is a pullback in risk-on assets, even as gold rallies in response.

In a notable development, Nvidia has announced it will manufacture AI supercomputers domestically for the first time ever. A major milestone—and a move aligned with Trump’s tariff playbook, aimed at reshoring high-value manufacturing.

OM Collapse: Red Flags Ignored

More details are emerging around the OM collapse, and with hindsight, the red flags were hard to miss.

The primary catalyst was suspicious wallet activity and the team’s overwhelming control of the token’s supply—90% of total supply was in the hands of the MANTRA team (defeats the purpose of decentralisation). That’s a glaring red flag, but it was seemingly overlooked in the rush to ride the hot real world asset narrative.

A wallet linked to MANTRA transferred 3.9 million $OM tokens to OKX, triggering immediate concerns. With the team holding near-total control of the supply, market manipulation became a legitimate fear. Rumours of over-the-counter (OTC) sales at discounts of up to 50% further eroded trust, hinting that insiders were offloading tokens at the expense of retail holders.

The fallout was swift. Panic selling set in, triggering a cascade of stop-losses and leveraged liquidations. Over $6 billion in market value was wiped out in just 30 minutes.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.12)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/rIDCUkIz/

Like Bitcoin, XRP had a relatively flat session, gaining less than 1%. But the lack of movement shouldn’t be seen as bearish—in fact, it’s quite the opposite. If XRP can continue building a base above the 21EMA (yellow line), it sets the stage for a potential breakout to the upside.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/XGOj3VCM/

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, moving between the CPR level of $83.6K and resistance at $85.8K. This range-bound price action is structurally bullish, as it signals continuation. A breakout above $85.8K could fuel a move toward $90K, while a breakdown may see Bitcoin retest the low $80K region.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 14 April: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Macro Fuels Bitcoin Push While Altcoin Fragility is Exposed

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 12:05:20 +1000

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Since our last update, it’s been a whirlwind few days in crypto. Bitcoin surged to $86K following a key policy shift from the Trump administration, and this morning saw the dramatic collapse of a top 20 crypto project.

Tariff Rollbacks Fuel Risk-On Rally

Saturday night's rally was driven by news that the US will grant tariff exemptions on smartphones, computers, and chip-makers—a significant rollback from Trump’s previously hardline stance. Before these exemptions, the projected price of an iPhone was expected to soar to around $3,500 USD, up from $1,000 USD, a staggering increase that would’ve hit consumers directly. This illustrates how deeply such tariffs impact everyday goods, especially as domestic production costs in the US remain far higher than imports from Asia.

While this rollback gave risk-on assets a boost, the broader picture remains murky. The continued policy flip-flopping adds further noise to an already convoluted macroeconomic backdrop. Today it’s bullish, but the next tariff headline could just as easily unwind the gains.

OM Collapses—RWA Sector Shaken

Not all headlines have been positive. Mantra (OM)—ranked as the 19th largest crypto project and the leading Real World Asset (RWA) protocol—collapsed overnight. At midnight, OM was trading at $6.50, with a market cap near $6 billion. By midday, it had plummeted to $1.00, slashing its market cap to $1 billion. A staggering 90% drop in less than 12 hours.

Panic has taken hold, with investors scrambling for answers. Rumours are swirling, but nothing concrete has emerged yet. In OM’s absence, Ondo now claims the top spot as the leading RWA protocol. It’s a brutal reminder of the immaturity still prevalent in the altcoin market, and the inherent risks in deviating from Bitcoin.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.14)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/RCUoshyO/

XRP has begun to reclaim its bullish structure, printing a higher high. If it can now form a higher low above $1.72, that structure will be confirmed. It’s currently holding above the 21EMA—a positive sign. If bulls maintain control, we could see XRP push towards the mid-range level at $2.40 in the sessions ahead.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bs0fJa8z/

Bitcoin remains in bullish structure with strong momentum. It briefly pierced the key resistance at $85.2K before pulling back to test the 55EMA, which held firm. BTC has since bounced, once again challenging this critical level. For the uptrend to continue, a confirmed break above $85.2K is essential. Failure to do so could open the door for the bears to return.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 13 April: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin sentiment strengthens as bulls return

Sat, 12 Apr 2025 17:34:15 +1000

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Bitcoin sentiment continues to build as price action remains bullish, climbing back above $83K. The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin has now risen to 43, quickly approaching the neutral zone—further evidence that bearish momentum is fading. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s own Fear & Greed reading has slipped from 17 to 13 despite the index rising 1.81% overnight. With BTC reclaiming ground, bears are steadily losing their grip on market control.

While the tariff headlines have quietened, tensions between China and the US persist. Overnight, China escalated the situation, raising tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125%.

The US 10-year Treasury yield has rallied once more, now sitting at 4.5%, prompting a response from the Federal Reserve, which is reportedly "absolutely" prepared to intervene to stabilise the market, per the Financial Times.

We're potentially witnessing a shift in policy drivers, with the US10Y becoming a central force.

Some believe the recent bond yield spike may have influenced Trump’s decision to delay new tariffs. There are also murmurs that the Fed could act earlier than expected, and rumours are circulating about Trump potentially scheduling a call with Chinese President Xi to address the tariff war. Still, Trump maintains that "the bond market did not drive his decision to delay reciprocal tariffs by 90 days."

Looking ahead, the next interest rate decision arrives in early May. While markets initially priced in the first cut of the year, expectations have cooled. There’s now a 60.2% probability of no change, and just a 39.8% chance of a 25 bps cut.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.01)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/lKWOQt7R/

XRP successfully reclaimed its broader range yesterday, closing back above $1.98. Not only did price reclaim key territory, it also moved above both the 200-day SMA and EMA—an encouraging sign for bulls.

That said, bears still maintain structural control. For the bulls to flip the trend, XRP must push past the recent high of $2.18 to establish a clear higher high.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/3Z7P1tyu/

Bitcoin rallied nearly 5% yesterday, testing CPR resistance once again at $83.6K. While BTC was previously rejected at this level, bulls now appear firmly in control, with both momentum and market structure favouring the upside.

The 21EMA is expected to act as immediate support, with the next key target sitting at $85.2K. Bulls remain in charge as long as any pullback holds above $81.6K—a level supported by the 55EMA, both 200-day moving averages, and a broader trendline.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 11 April: $ - 1.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Inflation Falls, But Tariffs Keep Pressure On

Sat, 12 Apr 2025 17:25:54 +1000

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Markets saw a modest pullback overnight as investors began to realise that the 90-day tariff pause hasn’t halted the broader trade war. The announcement appears increasingly like a classic bull trap, with tariffs not only remaining intact—but intensifying.

Here’s where things currently stand:

10% baseline tariffs on all countries global
25% on automobile imports to the US
25% on on steel and aluminum
25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico
145% tariffs on Chinese imports

Overnight, tariffs on Chinese imports were ramped up further, now sitting at an eye-watering 145%. President Trump also stated he’s considering delisting Chinese companies from US exchanges—adding another layer of geopolitical risk to an already fragile environment.

Despite the dip, markets remain higher than earlier in the week. The S&P 500 fell 3.5%, Bitcoin dropped 3.7%, slipping back below $80K, while gold rallied to yet another all-time high, trading above $3,200 USD/oz.

Markets Shrug Off Soft CPI Data

Adding to the mix was the release of inflation data—typically a market-moving event. However, markets barely flinched at a bullish CPI print. For the second consecutive month, inflation came in below expectations:

Core CPI MoM: Forecast 0.3%, Actual 0.1%
Headline CPI MoM: Forecast 0.1%, Actual -0.1%
Headline CPI YoY: Forecast 2.5%, Actual 2.4%

This is usually bullish for risk assets, yet markets remained flat or down. The lack of response shows the market’s current tunnel vision—tariffs are the dominant narrative, and even strong macro tailwinds are being ignored.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($1.98)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/XPAGAZIL/

XRP has reclaimed the lower boundary of its long-standing range after bouncing off a key support zone. Up 24% from its recent low at $1.61, the momentum and structure still favour the bears. However, a daily close above $1.98 would be the first sign of bullish recovery. Keep it on the radar.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bxDifY9z/

Bitcoin was rejected from $81.6K at the CPR level and is now trading below all major moving averages. The 21 and 55 EMAs are also on the verge of flipping—if they do, momentum shifts firmly back into bearish control.

However, if BTC can form a higher low above $75.7K, the structure flips back in favour of the bulls. Until then, we remain in a vulnerable zone.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 April: $ - 149.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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90-Day Tariff Pause Sparks Historic Market Rally

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 11:50:35 +1000

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To add more fuel to the confusion regarding Trump’s ‘plan’ and ‘vision’, he’s just announced a 90-day pause on tariffs — this comes one week after the reciprocal tariffs went live…

But the markets don’t care about any confusion this adds — green everywhere. The S&P 500 up 9.51%, Dow Jones up 7.87%, Nasdaq up 13.66%, Gold up 3.38%, and of course Bitcoin, up 8.27% with some altcoins up 20%. The DJI experienced its first 3,000-point single-day increase, Nasdaq posted its second-largest day in history, Japan’s stock market rallied 10% on open, and the volatility index (VIX) fell by 35% today. Recession odds have also dropped, with Polymarket showing a 49% chance after sitting at 66% yesterday.

Now does this mean the tariff pause will relieve markets of some volatility and reduce the uncertainty within? Potentially. Fear and Greed readings for both traditional markets and Bitcoin have jumped — S&P 500 up 13 points to 17 but still in extreme fear, and Bitcoin up 21 points from 18 to 39, moving from extreme fear to regular fear.

This tariff pause came only hours after Trump posted on Truth Social saying ‘THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT’. We also saw traders open SPY, QQQ, and TQQQ call options expiring the same day — right before the pause was announced. Within the hour, those calls were up 2,100%... a clear sign of insider trading?

Now this isn’t the first time we’ve seen a tariff pause. Back at the start of February, when the US set tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China — a day later Canada hit back with the same. The US responded with a 30-day pause and markets rallied off the back of it. Bitcoin went from $91k to $101k during that stretch, but once the pause ended, BTC was back to $86k.

Currently we’ve seen Bitcoin rally from $74k to $83.5k on the news, Ethereum and Solana up 13%, Sui and XRP up 15%, and ONDO leading with 20%. Some great relief from recent bearish price action.

Now there’s still a long way to go before tariffs resume. In that time, expect more tariff headlines, potential negotiations, rate decisions, and inflation data. Until then, no one knows what the market will do — unless you’ve got a crystal ball.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($1.79)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/fGwZ7Pto/

The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) saw serious movement this past week — starting around 4.20% on April 2, then dropping to a low of 3.87% by April 4 amid a bond rally and safe-haven demand. This initial move lower helped ease borrowing costs and supported risk-on sentiment, even as recession fears lingered. But yields then surged to 4.55% by April 9 after Trump’s tariff escalation on China, raising inflation risks and hitting risk assets.

After today’s pause, which reset most tariffs to 10% for 90 days, yields dropped back to 4.277% over the last 24 hours — a 23 basis point (-5.23%) decline from the peak. This pullback reflects reduced uncertainty, sparking a broad-based risk-on rally as capital rotated out of bonds and back into equities and crypto.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cOAaoK4o/

Bitcoin has rallied back above $82k following the tariff pause. This move has flipped momentum back in favour of the bulls and the structure looks to be turning — with a higher high now in place. As long as we see a higher low next, bulls will regain structural control.

BTC reached the CPR and was rejected at $83.5k — this is the immediate resistance. Key support now sits at $81.6k — the main bounce level for BTC to continue higher.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 9 April: $ - 37.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bull Traps and Tariffs: Markets Under Pressure

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 11:46:28 +1000

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Markets continued to bleed following textbook bull trap reversals across the board yesterday. A bull trap occurs when price action moves higher—seemingly showing strength and luring investors in—only to reverse sharply, trapping late entries. This pattern played out across Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and even Gold.

Bitcoin opened the day below $80K but showed early signs of strength, moving 2% higher and nearly retesting $81K. Gold also posted gains, trading back above $3,000 and up 1.36%. Momentum appeared bullish across risk and safe-haven assets alike, and the S&P 500 even opened the US session 4% higher than the previous day’s close.

But the optimism didn’t last.

In the first hour of the US session, the S&P 500 saw five consecutive red hourly candles, shedding 5% and erasing all gains from the open. Gold surrendered its advance and closed flat, while Bitcoin reversed hard—now trading back below March’s low and down 3.37% on the day. That’s a 5% swing from the intraday high. A clear bull trap, which tends to materialise during broader bearish market conditions.

This marks the fourth consecutive red day for the S&P 500, down a brutal 12.14% over this period—officially back in bear market territory. It’s now the 11th largest uninterrupted four-day drop for the index since 1940. Comparable only to periods like 2020 (Covid crash), 2008 (Global Financial Crisis), and 2001 (Dot-com bubble). Brutal chapters in market history—but also rare opportunities for accumulation.

Bitcoin, of course, didn’t exist in 2001 or 2008, but it was very much present for the Covid crash. In March 2020, it dropped a staggering 38.97% in a single day. Fast forward to now: while the S&P 500 has mirrored the kind of performance we saw during those crisis periods, Bitcoin is showing comparative resilience—down just 10% over the same stretch the S&P has fallen 12.14%. A subtle but important signal of Bitcoin’s strength in macro uncertainty.

Looking ahead, further volatility seems likely. With China refusing to lift tariffs on the US, the additional 104% US tariffs on Chinese goods are set to go live tomorrow—an event likely to ripple through markets overnight. Adding to the mix, US CPI numbers are also due tomorrow night.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($1.79)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/9sWfx5g6/

XRP continues to bleed, down 5.42% over the last 24 hours and now trading below all key moving averages. The structure and momentum are firmly bearish. Eyes on $1.63—the key zone that held yesterday and could act as the next support level.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/scuLexYL/

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the 55EMA and has now broken below March’s low. A retest of the CPR support at $74.5K looks likely. Bulls are struggling to flip momentum, with each attempt swiftly shut down—bears remain in control.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 8 April: $ - 66.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Panic, Tariffs, and a 10% Swing: Bitcoin Stands Firm in Market Mayhem

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 12:46:20 +1000

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Another wild 24 hours in the markets — rallies, fake headlines, circuit breakers, bear markets. This past week will be one for the history books, a case study in volatility and sentiment whiplash.

Crypto didn’t start strong. Bitcoin closed the previous day down 7%, with most altcoins falling over 10%. The selling pressure spilled into yesterday, dragging BTC to a new low of $74.5K — its lowest since 7 November. At that point, Bitcoin was down 5% on the day and looked set to close red. But then came the sharp reversal.

BTC surged to an intraday high of $81.2K on headlines that tariffs were set to be delayed. Unfortunately, the headlines turned out to be fake — confirmed within minutes by the White House. Bitcoin swiftly fell back below $80K. It was a day of extreme volatility, with nearly a 10% swing between the high and low. The market remains in extreme fear, currently reading 24 on the Fear & Greed Index.

The strength Bitcoin is showing is quite astonishing, given the broader macroeconomic backdrop and traditional market reactions — definitely something to keep an eye on.

Bitcoin and the S&P500 both rallied 5% in the wake of the initial (fake) tariff report — only to give it all back just as fast.

Traditional markets were hit even harder. Hong Kong’s stock market had its worst day since 1997, plunging over 13%. Singapore saw its worst day in 16 years, while China experienced its most severe crash since 2008. The S&P500 officially opened in bear market territory. Panic was widespread. Japan’s Nikkei 225 futures were suspended, Taiwan halted trading, and Thailand temporarily banned short selling. Despite the chaos, Japan’s stock market has opened this morning up 6%, highlighting the volatility and fragility of sentiment.

The current headline dominating markets: Trump is threatening China with additional tariffs — a 50% increase by 9 April if China doesn't remove its 34% reciprocal tariffs on the US.

JUST IN: China responds, stating they "will fight to the end" against tariffs. This confirms they will not be removing their 34% tariffs on the US…

Despite the panic, the White House expects markets to find a bottom soon. Both Trump and Jim Cramer are urging investors not to panic. While neither are Warren Buffett, it’s still sound advice. These are the moments when smart money enters the market — accumulating Bitcoin and high-conviction altcoins at major discounts.

Below $80K is proving to be a key accumulation zone for Bitcoin. The demand is strong, and waiting for lower prices may leave you sidelined. These are the kind of levels where generational wealth is quietly built. Use the opportunity.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($1.86)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/HV1lnGn5/

Despite Bitcoin closing green yesterday, XRP printed a red candle and continues to drift lower. As anticipated, it tapped the key support zone highlighted yesterday at $1.63, and has since bounced. The range between $1.45–$1.63 is a significant demand zone and should be viewed as prime accumulation territory for long-term XRP bulls.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZaMRMlrs/

Yesterday’s volatility played out in full: BTC broke down below $81.6K, swept March’s low, and tagged the monthly CPR support line — which provided a textbook bounce. That bounce, triggered by the fake headline, briefly pushed BTC back to retest $81.6K resistance, but the level rejected price once again.

Currently, BTC sits below the 55 EMA and looks likely to fall beneath the 21 EMA as well. Momentum and structure remain in bearish control. Key level to watch remains the CPR support at $74.5K — BTC must hold here.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 7 April: $ - 97.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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No Delay on Tariffs—Markets Rattle

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 12:41:44 +1000

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Waking up this morning to confirmation that tariffs are here to stay—and will not be delayed—has sent fresh shockwaves across global markets. This time, crypto hasn't escaped the fallout.

Bitcoin is down over 7%, trading below $78K but still holding slightly above its March low, while almost every altcoin has dropped over 10%, wiping out most altcoin gains made since Trump’s election victory. Ethereum has plunged 14%, now sitting below $1,600 for the first time since November 2023. Solana is hovering just above $100, down 63% from its all-time high in January.

In traditional markets, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures opened over 4% lower, pushing the S&P 500 into official bear market territory if the spot follows suit. Gold saw a rapid wick below $3,000 within five minutes of the open before partially recovering. Silver has shed 2.6% since the 8am open.

This isn’t just a crypto story—these tariffs are causing a broad-based correction across both risk-on and risk-off assets. But now is not the time to panic.

While the term ‘Black Monday’ has started circulating and 61.9% of American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) members expect further downside over the next six months, recession probabilities have surged to 65% according to Polymarket. Fear is high, but opportunity often follows.

These are the market conditions where long-term investors find their edge. Historically, accumulating Bitcoin during periods of fear has rewarded patience. Rather than fleeing the market, this is when you lean in—this is when you build positions in Bitcoin and high-conviction altcoins. Wealth isn’t made in bull markets; it’s made in moments like this.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($1.91)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/neOtgyZg/

XRP has finally broken down, shedding over 10% as Bitcoin fell over 7%. It's now trading below its long-held range, with a close beneath the lower bound looking likely for the first time since November.

Without nearby support, the blue demand zone between $1.50–1.63 appears to be the next logical target, especially under current bearish market conditions.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/VE3izXCd/

Bitcoin has lost the critical $81.6K support and is fast approaching the level defined by last year's all-time high—$73,777. If March’s low fails to hold, this zone is likely to be tested next.

Momentum and structure are clearly with the bears right now. A breakdown below March’s low seems increasingly probable if sentiment and macro headwinds persist.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 6 April: (data not available at the time of writing.)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Stands Tall While Traditional Markets Enter Bear Territory

Sat, 05 Apr 2025 15:03:47 +1100

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Another shocking day across traditional markets as China retaliates to Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs by slapping 34% tariffs on all US goods. The escalation in trade tensions has sparked a sharp sell-off across major asset classes.

Traditional markets bled out: the S&P 500 dropped 6% and now sits just 2.5% away from entering a technical bear market. The Nasdaq 100 has officially entered one, after also shedding 6%. Gold slid 2.5%, silver tumbled 7%. So, Bitcoin must have suffered too, right? Wrong.

Bitcoin has now posted two consecutive green days, even as both risk-on and risk-off assets falter. It’s another strong signal that BTC is increasingly being seen as the hedge and safe haven of choice in this escalating trade war—Bitcoin, after all, has no tariffs.

We anticipated this to be the most volatile week of the year so far, and it has easily delivered—now on track to be the most volatile since March 2020. Recession odds are climbing fast. According to Polymarket, there’s now a 60% probability of a 2025 recession. JP Morgan have echoed the sentiment, stating they now expect one this year. The traditional markets’ Fear & Greed Index sits at 4—near rock bottom. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has clawed its way out of extreme fear, now printing a 30, firmly in regular fear territory.

The past two days have showcased Bitcoin’s relative strength against broader macro stress. This could be the early stages of a true decoupling—Bitcoin’s evolution into the ultimate safe haven asset, one that stands apart from traditional markets and policy cycles. Still early days, but this week has given investors a glimpse of what that might look like.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.12)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/kn5S9uj8/

XRP is up 3.21%, continuing its bounce off the bottom of the range—a positive sign for the bulls. But XRP is now pushing into significant resistance. The CPR levels and 21EMA at ~$2.20 are likely to pose a challenge in the short term.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ogmQso1o/

Bitcoin has gained over the past 24 hours, flipping momentum back toward the bulls while maintaining a neutral structure. BTC continues to find solid footing at $81.6K, but faces resistance at the CPR level of $84.8K. We’re back in the mid-March range, with BTC stuck between CPR resistance and lower support at $81.6K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 4 April: $ + 64.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.