A clearer image of the above chart can be found here (tradingview: https://www.tradingview.com/x/FouWe2J9/)

Core CPI, CPI m/m and CPI y/y data all coming in under expectations via (https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar)

Reach out to us at Stormrake for further market insight and allow us to help you navigate the sea of mania and laser-eye memes, so that you can realise your goals in the market!

There is enough data and information for even the newest crypto investors to understand that when Bitcoin is in a bull market, altcoins have experienced a greater rise. However, when the tide turns and Bitcoin faces a downturn, the ripple effects are felt far more acutely across these altcoins. Altcoins are considered to be leveraged bets on the performance of Bitcoin.

The table above shows Bitcoin's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) vs other major investments. Bitcoin continues to show why it has been the number one investment performer over its lifespan with an average return of 155% p.a, whilst Gold has only returned 7% over the same 14 year period. 

This proves that the accumulation of Bitcoin is one of the most rewarding investments. To receive the full benefits of Bitcoin's CAGR, one should continue to accumulate BTC over the years regardless of the price. By doing so, one is likely to be rewarded and greatly outperform all alternative investment options.

Reach out to us at Stormrake for further market insight and allow us to help you navigate the sea of mania and laser-eye memes, so that you can realise your goals in the market!

A joint announcement by the US Treasury, FDIC and Federal Reserve introduced a new BTFP program to prop up banks that had significant (unrealised) losses in the bond markets.

Many banks needed propping because they had made significant bets on long term bonds which had dropped significantly in value as interest rates have risen.

A quirk in the accounting requirements had allowed banks to report bonds as being worth more than they could be sold for on the open market, when in fact, many were under water.

We covered this in more detail at the start of the regional banking crisis in our Thunder Trading article here. In that article, we covered the dramatic shift in expected federal funds rates as many predict the FED may ‘pivot’ soon to begin reducing interest rates.

Not so fast!

Jerome Powell went ahead with a 0.25% increase in rates, in an attempt to continue reducing inflation as well as the FED balance sheet.  We expect the FED will hold rates for as long as possible until we see strong signs of recession that makes cuts unavoidable.

We see the combination of rate hikes, and the BTFP program as effectively having the foot on the accelerator and brake at the same time.

Rate hikes reduce the money in the system (Quantitative tightening), while the BTFP program increases it. For a deeper explanation of why BTFP is effectively money printing, we highly recommend this Arthur Hayes article. 

And just like that, the FEDs balance sheet quickly expanded.

Wobbles in the traditional banking & finance sector have seen a resurgence in crypto markets across the month. It has been a strong month for all the majors but the last week has seen steady markets apart from XRP rising on the back of positive rumours around the SEC court case.

Australia has a “Big Four” approach to banking but ~4500 US community banks are in dire risk of collapse and consolidation into the “Too Big To Fail” big 4 US banks (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citibank). 

This may seem not relevant to us back in Aus, but 4500 banks collapsing is a massive political risk in the US, and can therefore have broad impacts to the actions of the US Government and hence, global markets. The recent Credit Suisse collapse is a prime example.

Source: https://www.bankingstrategist.com/community-banks-number-by-state-and-asset-size

If you’re not familiar with Balaji Srinivasan, he is a well respected and very smart man. He did a great, 8 hour podcast with Lex Friedman that is highly recommended if you can find the time. 

Balaji is declaring that the time for a transition from US dollars to Bitcoin is upon us and he is calling for people to get themselves into the Bitcoin lifeboat. He even went ahead to make an extraordinary 1 Million USD bet that this would occur within 90 days.

We don’t believe Balaji entered the bet to win it. If he wanted to take that bet there are significantly cheaper ways to get that exposure in the market. Balaji did this to amplify his warning and try to save people. Balaji is a technology visionary with a very successful career.  He was also very early to sound the alarm on covid.

Balaji does a great job explaining his reasoning and backs it up with lots of resources and research. It is for this reason that we recommend every also watch him explain for himself:

There is a growing concern that recent government actions are deliberately restricting the crypto markets in an attempt to cut off people from exiting the Fiat system.

Nic Carter called this out 7 weeks ago here:

First they ignored Bitcoin, then openly laughed at it. Now comes the long awaited fight. 

Recent events certainly paint a strong picture.  Nic sums it up well with the following

• The SEC announced a lawsuit against the crypto infrastructure company Paxos for issuing the BUSD stablecoin. 

• Crypto exchange Kraken settled with the SEC for offering a staking product. 

• SEC Chair Gensler openly labeled every crypto-asset other than Bitcoin a security. 

• The Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works held a hearing lambasting Bitcoin for its environmental footprint. 

• The Biden administration proposed a bill that singles out crypto miners for onerous tax treatment. 

• The NY Attorney General declared Ethereum, the second-largest crypto-asset, a security. 

• The SEC continued its anti-consumer protection efforts by doubling down on their attempts to block a spot Bitcoin ETF in court as well as trying to stop Binance US from buying the assets of the bankrupt Voyager. 

• The OCC let crypto bank Protego’s application for a national trust charter expire without approval. 

• The SEC sent Coinbase a Wells Notice, indicating its intent to bring enforcement actions against them for a variety of their business lines. 

Read Nic's full article here or listen to Nic Carter on Operation Choke Point here.

To add to this:

• CFTC files a very aggressive suit against Binance

• SEC Charges Tron founder Justin Sun on security violations

• ANZ cutting back on cash withdrawals

• EU clamping down on cash and crypto transactions.

• Gary Gensler calls for funds to clamp down on crypto

The BRICs nations, (of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), have been working to form an international currency settlement system outside of the US backed SWIFT system. This is partly due to the increasing weaponization of the US dollar via various sanctions. Unconfirmed reports suggest it will commence August 1st, 2023.

According to South Africa Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor, at least 12 nations have applied to join BRICS movement, including:

• Saudi Arabia

• UAE

• Egypt

• Algeria

• Argentina

• Mexico

• Nigeria

This is a significant threat to US dollar hegemony and eventually the global balance of power and will be worth keeping a close eye.

We are starting to see the very real effect of the prolonged rate rises and today saw both

Porter Davis, and Lloyd Group go into liquidation. 

This is the sort of pain that reserve banks have been waiting to see before they consider a reduction in the rate rises.  It will be interesting to see the RBA’s decision on Tuesday.   Westpac economists expected a pause to rate rises and these recent liquidations might have confirmed it.

US commercial vacancy rates are also at all time highs with no rent being paid on 18.7% of offices. Is the reckoning about to arrive?

Written by Bisher Khudeira

This is best exemplified when we went to fill up petrol from the gas station. A simple 40 litres sets back the Lebanese family, a whopping 382 Million LBP. In the face of soaring hyperinflation and worthless LBP, the economy and the people of Lebanon have turned to the USD as salvation. The issue with this solution is that the banks take huge fees on USD deposits sent into their banks, for example if I were to send $1,000 USD to a family member they may only see $500 - $700 of that transfer. 

If only there was a solution available where the citizens can become their own bank and freely send and receive funds without an intermediary. In steps Bitcoin to save the beleaguered citizens of Lebanon.

In the Lebanese economy, the citizens have turned to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to avoid the aggressive bank charges, circumvent the government's corruption and forge a financially sound future despite the macroeconomic environment around them. You see them willingly spending their LBP as fast as possible. They hold USD in the short term, for more expensive purchases (a dentist appointment for example) and they save in Bitcoin, the ultimate hard currency.

This salvation cannot be understated, as it gives hope to Lebanon's youth. The working class finally has a pure savings account and the elderly can receive money without interference from corrupt government officials.

The reason I share this with you all is so that you can be best prepared for when this reality eventually befalls the AUD, and yes even the USD. We have seen 50 years of this fiat experiment and all it has done is impoverish most of the world and have the developed world living pay cheque to pay cheque, as they simply tread water in a debt laden system. 

Hyperinflation doesn't happen gradually, it doesn't give you a chance to jump ship and move your wealth elsewhere. it happens suddenly, as the citizens of Lebanon had to learn the hard way when their currency was devalued 90% overnight so that the government can continue to meet their debt obligations to the Western world.

You may falsely assume "well this won't happen here, this is Australia". However, the statistics are not on your side because over 99% of fiat currencies that have ever been circulated, have failed. Roman Dinars and Dutch Guilders used to be the superpower currency of their age but now they are a mere historical footnote.  

The team here at Stormrake are giving you an incredible opportunity to get onboard the Bitcoin lifeboat before your savings account evaporates by over 90% in one night. If this reality doesn't befall you in your lifetime, it edges closer generation after generation, so for those who want to leave a lasting legacy of support to their offspring, get your bitcoin before it's too late. Don't let them line up to the crypto store to exchange their worthless fiat currency for a a minuscule fraction of Bitcoin.

The Credit Suisse collapse was highly meme'd

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the crypto market in February 2023:

1. Bitcoin has seen plenty of intra-day volatility this month and has put in a 15% range from peak to trough of the monthly low to high. Despite all of this volatility Bitcoin has only risen 1% for the month with the monthly candle showing a lot of indecision around direction.
   
2. Ethereum has risen from its underperformance against Bitcoin and has risen 3.9% for the month of February. There are some headwinds coming up with the Shanghai upgrade but for now the momentum is in Ethereum's favour. 
3. The total crypto market cap has maintained the all important 1 trillion USD handle, having added $25 Billion USD in the month of February. We will continue to monitor inflows and watch the 1.30 Trillion USD handle as a clear signal of a secular bull market confirmation.
4. The best performing coin for the month of February is Stacks (STX) which markets itself as Bitcoin DeFi. The reason for the strong outperformance is due to a new technology called Ordinals enabled via Taproot. Although there is no direct link between Stacks and Ordinals, the drivers of speculation remains the same.
5. The worst performing token for the month was Aptos (APT). This is driven on the back of VC firms and early stage investors using last month's APT pump as attractive enough valuation levels to exit their initial investment. In last month's Rake Review we warned that this could happen and hope our readers took necessary precautions.
   

• Jump Crypto just counter-exploited the Wormhole hacker for $140 Million
• SEC sues over TerraUSD stablecoin that rocked crypto as part of crackdown
• Optimism airdrops it's second release of tokens to OP network users
• U.S. SEC targets crypto 'staking' with Kraken crackdown
• The Australian government opens up proposals to its token mapping program
• Robinhood received crypto related subpoena request
• RBA Chief grilled over shock rate rises. He promised Australian rates would be low in 2023.
• Coinbase launches Layer 2 blockchain called Base 
  

Can we add "AI" to the name any project now?

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

Barry Sternlicht explains below:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the crypto market in January 2023:

1. Bitcoin has put in a heap of work to start off the new year and has had a resurgence in market cap dominance. Bitcoin has risen by 37.5% at the close of the month and has generally led each market rally. It has slowed down after a retest of $24,000 USD but looks primed to make a move higher should it close above the all important $25,000 level.
   
2. Ethereum continues to underperform against Bitcoin but has managed to put in some work. During the month of January it has gained an impressive 31%, the cause of the under can mainly be chalked up to fears surrounding the Shanghai Upgrade. This ETH upgrade will allow for staked ETH to be finally withdrawn and the market assumes there will be plenty of selling to realise profits.
3. The total crypto market cap has surged past the all important 1 trillion USD handle, having added $233 Billion USD in the month of January. Another month of similar inflows and the total crypto market cap will reclaim levels not seen since May 2022. This was when the market was embroiled in the Luna/Celsius/BlockFi collapse and would indicate a real shift in the market sentiment.
4. The best performing coin for the start of the new year is currently Aptos having put in a gain of 393.2%. This is an alternative layer 1 touted as an ETH killer and has plenty of venture capital support and although the performance is quite impressive, we encourage caution. The price action is a common bull trap and provides exit liquidity for VC funds.
5. The worst performing token for the month was Chain Token (XCN). This is primarily due to a previously well established arbitrage opportunity between a number of exchanges having been broken and very little demand for the token itself.

• Swyftx abandon merger plan with share trading platform Superhero
• Elon Musk wants Twitter to support crypto payments
• Genesis filed for bankruptcy and the wider crypto market shrugged it off
• Bitcoin has erased all post-FTX related price depreciation  
• Valkyrie Investments wants to manage Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
  
• DefiLlama launches DEX aggregator to much fanfare
• Gemini and DCG CEO's duke it out over Twitter claiming fraud and bad practice 
• AWS partners with Avalanche to scale blockchain solutions
  

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

The FOMC meeting happened earlier this morning and brought with it a rate hike of 50bps. This has officially lifted the US interest rate over the US 10y bond yield, a signal that precedes a pivot in FED policy but also precedes global recessions. 

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

Ethereum has continued to hold above $1,300 USD and looks set to test the next levels of resistance. Should we hold above $1,300 the next retest will occur $1,386 and if we break and close above this level then watch for a sharp move towards $1,472. To the downside, if we lose $1,300 on the daily timeframe, we can expect a retest of $1,190. Should the sell off be considerable, major support kicks in at the $1,071 key level. 

If you enjoyed this Morning Note, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

Bitcoin has been stuck in a near 3% range for the entire month of December, this tight range is set to be broken as the macro olympics commence. This includes headline inflation print out of the US and interest rate decisions from the BoE, the FED and the ECB. 

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

Ethereum continues to struggle with our key level of $1,300 USD as it eyes a move higher. Should it finally close above $1,300 on the daily chart, the next major resistance level comes in at $1,386. If macro events turn positive then a strong move $1,555 cannot be ruled by end of week. To the downside, if it closes below $1,190, then a retest of the local lows coming in at $1,071 is on the cards. 

If you enjoyed this Morning Note, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

Despite a savage bear market with valuations being decimated and severe levels of fraud and deception being exposed, Layer 2 solutions such as Arbitrum and Optimism keep on growing.

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

Ethereum has failed to reclaim $1,300 USD and this breakdown in market structure can weigh heavily on the coming trading sessions. If we close below $1,190 then we can expect a move towards $1,071 before major support kicks in. To the upside if we close above $1,300 on the daily chart, then we expect a move towards $1,472. 

If you enjoyed this Morning Note, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

As we continue to trade our way through a brutal 2022, the US bond market shows no remorse and provides the strongest signal that a deep global recession is imminent. Today we dissect how real this signal can be and what risks are associated with its confirmation.

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

Ethereum has a slightly more bullish market structure and technical chart as compared to Bitcoin. Should ETH manage to finally close above $1,300 USD on the daily timeframe, the local resistance level comes in at $1,386. Should it clear $1,386 the major resistance level comes in at $1,472 where we expect the market to take a pause. If ETH fails to reclaim $1,300 on the daily, then it becomes clear resistance and we look for a move towards the previous key level of $1,190. Should $1,190 fail to hold, expect a sharp move towards $1,130 before support manages to kick in. 

If you enjoyed this Morning Note, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

With the collapse of FTX now somewhat digested, the crypto markets have continued to chug along and is showing signs of life. On-Chain activity across DefI apps such as Uniswap and GMX have increased substantially as they soak up demand from crypto traders.  

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

Ethereum continues to show relative strength and is holding up well above the key level of $1,190 USD. If we manage to see a daily close above $1,333 then we can anticipate a move towards $1,472, which is approx. 18% away from current prices. To the downside, the scenario is very simple, if we close below $1,190 then watch for a sharp move down to the $1,000 - $1,071 pocket before finding support.

If you enjoyed this Morning Note, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.