Stormrake - Insights #Market

Rake Review: May 2026

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 16:09:53 +1000

Why the Most Critical Shifts Happen in Silence

Human nature watches the noise, but true paradigm shifts occur in the quiet. May 2026 proved this. While casual observers focused on price compression, a massive structural re-alignment spanning a new Fed Chair, the CLARITY Act, and spot Hyperliquid ETFs quietly codified the next era of capital.

The Accumulation Zone: Wealth is Built in the Quiet

Human nature is fundamentally wired to celebrate the spectacular. We gravitate toward the dramatic breakout candles, the explosive all-time highs, and the euphoric media coverage that accompanies a roaring bull market. It is easy to buy into a narrative when every headline confirms your bias and your portfolio greens by the hour.

But the grand illusion of the financial markets is that wealth is created during these loud, celebratory moments. It is not. Wealth is simply realised then. The actual building of generational positions occurs in the quiet, uncomfortable periods of structural transition, long before the rest of the world notices that the ground has shifted.

Think back to the opening months of the year. The market was characterised by deep fatigue, weak positioning was ruthlessly washed out, and a multi-month correction tested the absolute limits of investor discipline. The reactive capital stayed safely frozen on the sidelines, waiting for a definitive signal or a return to comfortable market conditions.

Yet, history consistently demonstrates that comfort and asymmetric opportunity cannot coexist. By the time a market looks entirely safe and certain, the discount has already evaporated.

Instead of looking for the single, exact bottom of the market, strategic investors view these periods as a Bottoming Zone to accumulate within. Consider the historical context of 2022. During that cycle low, Bitcoin traded between $15k and $25k for months. Similarly, Bitcoin has spent the last three months stuck in a consolidation range between $60k and $80k. Whilst the nominal range in 2022 may seem smaller, spanning just a $10k range, it was actually much larger percentage wise than the current setup, representing a 66% expansion from its floor. By contrast, the current $20k range is a much tighter 33% compression.

We are currently living through one of those rare, quiet structural shifts. The exhaustion of the bears is no longer just a technical theory; it is a visible reality on the charts. While the casual observer remains distracted by day to day noise, strategic capital has spent the last few weeks absorbing supply and positioning ahead of a changing global paradigm. True financial sovereignty requires the willingness to embrace near term uncertainty in exchange for long term upside. The windows of opportunity in this asset class close far quicker than most expect, and those who wait for a perfectly clear horizon will inevitably find themselves chasing momentum at significantly higher prices.

The Washington Consensus: Warsh Takes the Fed as CLARITY Clears the Senate

For years, the primary structural barrier to entry for institutional capital in the United States was a hostile, fragmented regulatory environment. Trillions of dollars in sidelined capital remained locked away simply because legacy allocators could not take on the legal risk of an undefined asset class. In May 2026, that regulatory gridlock officially broke.

The shift is being driven by a simultaneous political and monetary changing of the guard, starting with the leadership transition at the nation's central bank. The US Senate officially confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve in a highly contentious 54-45 vote. Warsh steps into the role with a historically pro-innovation stance on digital assets, famously viewing Bitcoin as a direct challenge to fiat currency mismanagement in past public statements.

Whilst President Trump has been loudly calling for lower interest rates, and Warsh has publicly aligned himself with the administration by criticising Powell's past policy choices, a reality check is already playing out. Resurgent wholesale inflation has pinned the Fed into a corner. Consequently, the market is currently pricing in a 99% probability that the Fed maintains interest rates steady at the upcoming June meeting. Furthermore, the likelihood of a rate cut occurring at any point this year sits at just 31%, as Wall Street increasingly bets that rates will remain on hold until at least December. So, even though Warsh has flipped dovish recently to match White House rhetoric, it is highly unlikely we see any cuts during his first few months as Fed Chair.

However, for the digital asset space, the presence of a crypto friendly Fed Chair is a massive structural win, and the momentum on Capitol Hill did not stop there.

Coinciding with this monetary transition, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) successfully cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a historic 15-9 bipartisan vote. The significance of this milestone cannot be overstated. Having already passed the House of Representatives, the bill has moved one step closer to becoming law, establishing the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets in US history.

The CLARITY Act provides the exact regulatory roadmap Wall Street has spent years demanding. It draws an unambiguous line between SEC and CFTC jurisdictions, introducing a "mature blockchain test" that allows tokens to safely transition from investment contracts into decentralised digital commodities overseen by the CFTC. Crucially, the framework goes beyond corporate structuring to provide explicit legal protections for self-custody wallets and non-custodial DeFi software developers, effectively protecting individual sovereignty from government overreach. When you pair a pro-innovation central bank leader with a statutory framework that eliminates legal risk, the message to global finance is clear: the infrastructure for the next era of capital is officially being codified.

Price Performance: Technical Compression and the Final Bear Stretch

May looked to build on what March and April had laid the foundation for, attempting to spark a bullish reversal and officially transition out of the multi-month bear market phase. The month certainly started well, with Bitcoin putting on 8% to reach its highest point since January at just shy of $83,000. Unfortunately, that upside momentum fell right into the bears' hands and actually strengthened their overall control as the month progressed.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Pd3g5RZ/

The remainder of May was a difficult period for the market. Bitcoin went on to confirm a lower high to reinforce the prevailing bearish structure on the daily chart. Price action faced heavy overhead resistance at the 200 moving averages, completely rejecting the bulls' bet for a sustained breakout and sending Bitcoin back down into the confines of a prominent bear flag pattern. This technical structure remains the main danger zone for potential lower prices, particularly with a bearish moving average cross about to occur, signaling that the bears are locking in their near term momentum.

Looking forward, June has historically been a highly reliable and bullish month for Bitcoin. Over the last 15 years, June has delivered an average return of 7.54%, closing green in nine of those annual periods. If Bitcoin aligns with this historical average move next month, it would take price back up just shy of the vital resistance level at $80,000, a key psychological zone that now also has the descending 200 moving averages reinforcing it as a heavy supply ceiling.

With the bears firmly back in control and potentially lower prices on the cards for the opening weeks of June, the strategic Bottoming Zone mentioned earlier must remain at the absolute forefront of your mind when allocating capital. This period is highly likely to be the final stretch of the bear market. Once this structural accumulation phase inevitably ends, market prices will be significantly higher, and those investors who had the discipline to systematically build exposure within this zone will be thanking themselves for doing so.

In the News

Hyperliquid Spot ETF:

The structural shift towards 24/7 on-chain financial infrastructure achieved a massive institutional milestone in May 2026, with the official debut of the first spot Hyperliquid (HYPE) exchange-traded funds on US public markets. Led by the launch of the 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) on 12 May and the Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP) on 15 May, the category has completely blindsided traditional finance analysts by attracting over $95 million in cumulative net inflows within its first two weeks of trading. BHYP led the charge with a massive $19.04 million single-day purchase on 26 May, driving total collective assets under management across the U.S. listed HYPE ETFs to roughly $117 million. Highlighting this rapid institutional shift, daily momentum reached such a fever pitch that the HYPE ETF officially overtook the entire US spot Ethereum ETF market in 24 hour net inflows recently. A major catalyst for HYPEs dominant price performance in May.

Abolishing the Discount: The 2026 Australian Budget:

The Albanese government handed down the new Federal Budget, introducing major tax changes that directly impact local investors. Most notably, the long standing 50% Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount will be completely abolished on 1 July 2027 for assets held longer than 12 months. It will be replaced by a basic indexation method tied to inflation, alongside a strict 30% minimum tax rate on net capital gains. Because Bitcoin and digital assets historically grow at rates far outpacing inflation, this change means a significantly higher tax bill for Aussie crypto investors compared to the old flat discount.

Presidential Influence Triggers Historic Corporate Stock Rallies

A fascinating trend in May 2026 was the sheer power of political rhetoric over stock prices, proving that verbal endorsements can completely override standard analysis. On 22 May, President Trump publicly praised Micron Technology at a rally; on the 27th of May, the stock jumped 20%. Even more impressive was Dell Technologies, which Trump told consumers to go out and buy on 8 May. Dell was subsequently awarded a massive US government contract on 27 May and reported stellar corporate earnings on 28 May, sending the stock up another 30% in late trading. In total, Dell has surged 80% since that single comment on 8 May, giving digital asset allocators a clear lesson that tracking regulatory and political alignment is often far more critical than simply staring at technical chart patterns alone.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in May 2026:

Bitcoin lost 3.57% in May.
Ethereum fell by 11.2% in May.
Hyperliquid has climbed by over 80% in May and replaces DOGE in the Top 10.
PAXG lost 1.90% in May.
The total crypto market cap fell by 2.2%.

Video of the month

Australia Rewards Asset Owners - Everyone Else Falls Behind

Mark Di Paola and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Understanding Digital Asset Spot ETFs

What Is An Institutional ETF?

For everyday investors navigating the digital asset space, understanding the mechanics of institutional capital is vital to reading the broader market trend. At its core, a spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a traditional financial vehicle designed to give legacy allocators a familiar channel to gain exposure to digital assets directly through their existing stockbroker accounts. It acts as a bridge between the legacy financial system and the on-chain economy, removing the technical hurdles of managing cryptographic keys and self custody for large institutions that are bound by strict corporate mandates.

Do They Actually Buy The Asset?

A common question among market participants is whether these funds actually buy the underlying asset. The answer is yes, on a strict one to one basis. When capital flows into a spot ETF, the fund manager is legally obligated to buy the physical asset directly from spot desks to back the newly issued shares. Conversely, when outflows occur, the manager must sell the asset on the open market to meet redemptions.

How Can This Be Used As A Price Indicator?

Because of this direct physical relationship, ETF flow data functions as a highly reliable indicator for price performance. Institutional desks and large fund managers command massive blocks of liquidity and often deploy capital well ahead of retail cycles. When we observe heavy, consecutive daily inflows accompanied by a price rally, it confirms that structural, smart money demand is actively driving the move. Conversely, sustained net outflows typically explain a softer, distribution phase on the charts where selling pressure is dominant.

Why Spot Ownership Beats An ETF Product

However, from an educational perspective, it is critical to distinguish between buying an ETF product and owning physical spot crypto. When you invest in an ETF, you do not own the asset itself. Instead, you hold a financial product that tracks the price, effectively leaving you with an ongoing counterparty contract or paper representation of the asset. This structural asset proxy comes with ongoing management fees, and it confines your liquidity strictly to traditional stock market hours.

True monetary freedom and the real value of an asset like Bitcoin can only be accessed through direct physical ownership. With spot ownership, you hold the actual asset in your own custody, completely free from ongoing management fees and institutional counterparty risk. You gain full price exposure alongside the total permissionless portability that defines the digital asset revolution, ensuring you hold a sovereign wealth asset rather than a traditional financial product

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: April 2026

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:42:14 +1000

This Time It Is Different

April’s positive price action has brought into question where we currently are in the Bitcoin cycle, especially with prices now up approximately 30% from the February lows. The question on everyone’s lips is: Is the bottom in? While historical cycles might suggest otherwise, the underlying market structure and the shift in global adoption indicate that this time, we are witnessing a very different recovery.

Why Conviction Trumps Timing

The conflict in the Middle East continues with postponed deadlines for ceasefires and failed negotiations. Despite this, Bitcoin and other assets have shown great resilience and trended much higher throughout the month. Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed around 365 days following an all-time high, which would suggest a cycle bottom in October. However, things are different this time. The last few months have been full of bad news and events that historically would shake Bitcoin and send risk assets lower, yet the market is showing a unique strength.

Cast your mind back to 2022. Bitcoin was firmly in a bear market for six months from its all-time high. The Terra Luna collapse then sent shockwaves through the space, driving Bitcoin down 50%. Another major capitulation followed in November with the FTX collapse, sending prices down nearly 30% before finally finding a cycle low.

Compare this to the current landscape. We are six months on and roughly 40% from the all-time high. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has increased volatility, and historically, these geopolitical shocks do not bode well for risk assets. If this were 2022, Bitcoin would likely be continuing its move to the downside, selling off on every bearish announcement. Instead, while oil prices have surged, Bitcoin's reaction has shifted.

The key difference lies in the players. The 2021 and 2022 period was dominated by retail investors and traders. Today, the opposite is true. Institutions and smart money are the primary drivers while retail has remained relatively absent compared to previous cycles. Smart money understands when to take advantage of discounts, whereas retail often sits on the sidelines second-guessing entries. This accumulation during a technically bearish period is being led by institutional investors as ETF flows have turned positive and entities like Strategy continue to add to their positions.

Whether we have reached the absolute bottom or not, now is the time to accumulate. History shows that buying during periods of extreme pessimism is consistently rewarded. Consider those who bought in 2022; even when prices fell from $25,000 to $15,000, those investors are now up significantly. They accepted the possibility of further downside to capture generational upside.

Accumulating within 30% of a potential bottom is extremely rewarding for those with long-term conviction. We are far closer to the end of this bear market than the start. Do not wait for lower prices that may never arrive. Even if further downside occurs, you are currently positioning yourself at generational lows. So the real question shouldn’t be ‘is the bottom in?’ but more so, ‘how strong is your conviction?’. Your answer to this question will help you realise that the answer to the first question is irrelevant.

Check out our Quarter 2 Outlook for a detailed breakdown of where we are in the market and what the next couple of months may look like.

April has presented an opportunity; May you take advantage?

For the first time in nearly a year, Bitcoin has increased by over 10% in a single month. It has been an incredibly resilient month for Bitcoin and the crypto space, pushing higher despite the noise and headwinds fuelled by the uncertainty of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Bitcoin has not only increased by 11% in April but has seen its first bullish momentum cross since April last year. Let’s delve deeper into the price action. As aforementioned, Bitcoin is up nearly 30% from February , and in doing so, it has created a sustained bullish crossover which is incredibly constructive for the bulls.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GiB2bdjt/

May has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, delivering an average return of 19.4% over the last 15 years, with nine of those being positive months. Despite the bulls regaining momentum and having history on their side for May, the bears still control the overall structure with a series of lower lows. The bears are looking to create another lower high, which would remain the case unless Bitcoin breaks above $98,000. We are not looking to create a higher high in May; instead, we want to see a continuous climb in price action similar to what we have witnessed over the last two months.

Just as crucially, it is important to note the current bear flag that Bitcoin has been in since the beginning of February. The bulls are attempting to break out of this and nullify the pattern, but the bears are currently aided by key resistance at $80,000.

This will be the level to watch for May. If we see a sustained breakout above $80,000, we can look to potentially fulfil May’s historical average return and be very close to calling the cycle bottom. Whilst price remains under $80,000 and within the bear flag, the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at major discounts alongside smart money remains open. However, this window will not be open forever. Ensure you act on your conviction; your future self will thank you.

In the News

Stormrake Take America:

One of the biggest milestones in Stormrake history has just been hit, with Stormrake officially launching in the United States via a Zero Hash partnership. Officially announced at Bitcoin 2026 Las Vegas, the presence and the on-stage discussion by Stormrake CEO Michael Milmeister and COO Bisher Khudeira mark just the beginning of this journey.

Protecting Your Assets: The Risks of Rehypothecation

A concerning trend has resurfaced in the market that serves as a vital reminder for all investors: always check the terms and conditions of your service provider. Specifically, you must look out for the practice of rehypothecation. While some platforms may use this to boost their own bottom line, the practice is extremely dangerous and adds a significant layer of risk to your holdings.

Rehypothecation is when a provider uses your assets to earn themselves a yield. Much like a traditional bank, they take your capital and lend it out to third parties to earn interest. In this scenario, your assets are working, but they are not working for you. Even more concerning is that many of these agreements allow the provider to pass any losses incurred from these activities directly onto the client.

We have seen this practice fail spectacularly in the past, most famously with Alameda Research using the funds of its sister exchange FTX to invest and attempt to generate returns. The result was a total collapse that left clients waiting years to recoup even a fraction of their holdings. When choosing where to custody your digital wealth, ensure they are holding your assets 1:1.

At Stormrake, we do not rehypothecate your funds. Your assets are kept in an institutional-grade custody solution where they sit securely until you choose to move them.

Hormuz Toll Booth:

As we have been covering in recent Stormrake Morning Notes, the conflict in the Middle East has seen Iran virtually shut the Strait of Hormuz. The only way for tankers to gain safe passage is to pay a toll, with reported figures reaching approximately $2 million per vessel.

Due to sanctions and the restrictive nature of fiat currency, Iran has moved away from the US dollar and is reportedly demanding Bitcoin as the chosen settlement method. This development highlights the growing adoption of Bitcoin, not just as an investment or store of wealth, but as the global neutral settlement layer it was designed to be.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in April 2026:

Bitcoin increased by 11% in April.
Ethereum rose by 7.30% during the month.
Hyperliquid is up nearly 10% and is currently knocking on the door of the top 10.
PAXG declined by 2.74% for the month.
The total crypto market capitalisation grew by 8% in April.

Video of the month

Bitcoin Wins No Matter Who Wins the War - Here's Why

Mark Di Paola and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Bitcoin as the Global Neutral Settlement Layer

While headlines often focus on Bitcoin’s price as a speculative asset, April 2026 has provided a definitive real-world case study of its true evolution: its emergence as a global neutral settlement layer.

The End of the "Information Only" Era

To understand why this shift matters, we must look at the traditional financial rails that have governed global trade for decades. Traditional systems like SWIFT often act as messaging services where actual settlement takes days, involves high fees, and is subject to the operating hours of multiple jurisdictions.

Bitcoin represents a paradigm shift because it unifies the flow of information and the flow of funds. When a Bitcoin transaction is sent, the ownership of the asset is transferred and settled on-chain simultaneously. This enables settlement within minutes rather than days.

Why Neutrality is the New Gold Standard

In 2026, the concept of "neutral money" has moved from academic theory to geopolitical necessity. As we have seen with the Hormuz toll booth scenario, traditional fiat currencies can be restricted or frozen by issuing governments to enforce sanctions.

For global trade participants, Bitcoin solves this through three core pillars:

Permissionless: No central authority can block a valid transaction or unplug a nation from the network.
24/7/365 Operation: Unlike traditional markets that close over weekends, Bitcoin’s settlement layer never sleeps.
Sovereign Revenue: For the first time, states are using decentralised infrastructure as a sovereign revenue mechanism at major maritime chokepoints.

The Mathematical Imbalance

The functional use of Bitcoin in global trade also creates a structural impact on price. As reported in April, the Iranian toll system alone requires a significant portion of the daily issued Bitcoin supply to facilitate passage through the Strait of Hormuz. When a single real-world use case begins absorbing a large percentage of new issuance, it creates a supply and demand imbalance that exerts consistent upward pressure on the asset's value.

Bitcoin is no longer just digital gold for saving; it is becoming the digital rail for global commerce. Understanding this transition is the difference between viewing Bitcoin as a volatile trade and recognising it as the emerging architecture of 2026 wealth.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Cryptocurrency transaction and custody services are powered by Zero Hash LLC and Zero Hash Liquidity Services LLC. When you enable Stormrake's digital asset services, you must also agree to the Zero Hash LLC and Zero Hash Liquidity Services LLC terms and conditions and enable your Zero Hash account. Cryptocurrency assets are held and custodied by Zero Hash LLC, not Stormrake IA Pty Ltd. Services may not be available in all states. Cryptocurrency assets are not subject to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or Securities Investor Protection Corporation coverage. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.

Copyright © 2026 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

The Rake Review: March 2026

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 18:43:11 +1100

The Shift is Underway

March was the month everything changed for Bitcoin. For much of the year, we highlighted its true purpose. In March, that narrative became reality.

Chaos is Accelerating the Shift:

There are often turning points or key events within the globe that cause a major shift in the globe, usually in the form of revolutions or changes in world powers. These shifts catch most by surprise but those who were able to identify the signs early and position themselves are sitting in the best spot for once the change occurs.

The current conflict that dominated headlines and influenced every market throughout the month has accelerated this shift. The conflict in the Middle East, we saw it occur last year but it only lasted a couple of weeks, markets took a slight detour before recovering and tracking higher.

This conflict has already surpassed a month and isn’t showing signs of ending anytime soon, despite the chaos in the headlines. Historically these events have resulted in investors rotating into extremely low risk assets such as cash and gold. But to many surprise this hasn’t been the case, in fact we have seen capital leave the likes of gold and return into Bitcoin.

It is a sign of a shift in Bitcoin and its role in the global economy.

What we are witnessing is not just a short term reaction to geopolitical stress, but a structural change in how capital behaves under pressure. In previous cycles, moments like this forced a predictable rotation into gold and cash. This time, that playbook is being challenged in real time.

Across the Middle East, investors have been actively selling gold, not because they have lost faith in it as a store of value, but because of its limitations in a fast moving and uncertain environment. Gold is difficult to transport, costly to secure, and inefficient to transact across borders. In contrast, Bitcoin offers instant mobility, divisibility, and self custody. When capital needs to move quickly, those properties matter.

There is also a market structure element at play. Increased selling pressure in physical gold markets has led to local bullion dealers offering below market rates due to imbalances in supply and demand. This creates friction at the exact moment investors need liquidity. Bitcoin, on the other hand, trades in a global, continuous market where liquidity remains accessible regardless of local conditions. The ability to exit at a transparent market price is becoming increasingly valuable.

This shift is already visible in price action. Since the conflict escalated, Bitcoin has held strength and pushed higher, while gold has softened and equities have struggled. That divergence is not noise. It points to early signs of decoupling, a theme we explored in The Bitcoin Regime Change Has Begun and further reinforced in our analysis of shifting monetary dynamics.

Bitcoin is no longer behaving purely as a speculative risk asset. In regions where traditional financial infrastructure is strained or inaccessible, it is actively being used as money. Settlement, preservation of value, and cross border transfer are no longer theoretical use cases, they are being tested in real conditions. As highlighted in Bitcoin at the Strait, this transition from narrative to utility is critical.

At the same time, broader monetary conditions are reinforcing this behaviour. As confidence in fiat systems continues to fluctuate and global liquidity remains uneven, capital is searching for alternatives that are both liquid and independent. Bitcoin is increasingly fitting that role.

The key takeaway is simple. This is not just about one conflict or one month of price action. It is about a redefinition of what investors consider a safe or reliable asset in times of uncertainty. Bitcoin is beginning to earn that status, not through speculation, but through performance under pressure.

The Market Never Closes Anymore:

Keeping on the theme of this broader shift, we are now seeing it move beyond capital flows and into the structure of finance itself. This is where things become more meaningful. It is no longer just about where money is going, but how the system it moves through is being rebuilt.

Traditional finance has always been constrained by time, geography, and layers of intermediaries. Markets open and close. Settlement takes time. Access depends on jurisdiction, permissions, and counterparties. That model worked in a slower, more fragmented world, but it is increasingly out of sync with how capital now behaves.

Crypto infrastructure removes those constraints entirely.

Markets are now operating in a continuous cycle. Capital moves 24/7, reacting instantly to news, macro shifts, and geopolitical developments. There is no delay between regions, no waiting for sessions to overlap, and no downtime where risk cannot be managed. This fundamentally changes how participants interact with markets. Exposure can be adjusted in real time, and liquidity is constantly available rather than concentrated into specific windows.

This shift is not theoretical, it is already being stress tested in real conditions.

Throughout the recent conflict, major geopolitical updates have not waited for market hours. Trump, in particular, has made several market moving statements over weekends, a period where traditional finance is effectively offline. In previous cycles, investors would have been forced to wait, unable to react until markets reopened.

Now, that delay no longer exists.

On platforms like Hyperliquid, traders have been actively positioning in real time, not just in crypto, but in tokenised representations of traditional markets. Oil, the S&P 500, and major equities such as Tesla and Apple have all seen price discovery continue over the weekend, driven by these developments. By the time traditional markets reopen, a significant portion of that price movement has already occurred on-chain.

This is a fundamental shift in where and when markets move.

Hyperliquid sits at the centre of this evolution. It is not just offering an alternative venue for crypto trading, it is building infrastructure that mirrors and, in some areas, surpasses traditional derivatives markets. Onchain order books, deep liquidity, and continuous trading create an environment where capital does not need to wait for legacy systems to catch up.

The significance of this is underscored by its growing integration with traditional finance. The Nasdaq deal with Hyperliquid signals that this is no longer an isolated crypto native experiment. Established financial players are beginning to recognise the advantages of on-chain infrastructure, particularly when it comes to speed, transparency, and global accessibility.

At the same time, tokenisation is accelerating this convergence.

By bringing traditional assets on-chain, tokenisation allows them to inherit the benefits of crypto rails. Assets that were once restricted by market hours can now trade continuously. Settlement becomes instant, ownership becomes more flexible, and access becomes global. The lines between crypto and traditional finance are no longer clear cut, they are beginning to merge.

What this creates is a financial system where capital is always in motion.

Liquidity no longer sits idle waiting for markets to open. It reacts instantly to information, whether that comes from central banks, geopolitical events, or unexpected headlines over the weekend. Price discovery becomes a continuous process rather than a fragmented one, and increasingly, it is happening on-chain first.

The key takeaway is clear. Crypto is not just complementing traditional finance, it is actively replacing some of its core functions. When markets close, crypto stays open. And as more capital, infrastructure, and institutions move in this direction, the question is no longer if traditional finance adapts, but how quickly it can catch up.

A Turning Point Beneath the Surface:

Despite widespread uncertainty and continued pressure across traditional markets, March marked a subtle but important shift for Bitcoin. Breaking the streak of red months, Bitcoin closed March up 1.83%, avoiding what would have been the longest drawdown in its history.

While the gain may appear marginal on the surface, the significance runs far deeper.

March was a fundamentally strong month. Bitcoin not only held its ground but began to decouple from traditional risk assets, outperforming in an environment where equities struggled and gold failed to attract sustained demand. This is the shift we have been highlighting, and in March, it began to materialise in real time.

As we move into Q2, April becomes a focal point.

Historically, April has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest performing months, second only to November. It has delivered an average return of 33.4% and closed green in 10 of the last 15 years. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, it does provide a seasonal tailwind that aligns with the improving conditions we are beginning to see.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/5lWGOSPk/

From a technical perspective, March was largely defined by consolidation.

Price spent the majority of the month ranging, with multiple attempts to break higher failing to gain sustained momentum. This has created a clear structure heading into April. The key level for the bears sits at $60K, while the bulls need to reclaim and hold above $70K. A decisive break and hold beyond either of these levels is likely to dictate the next major move.

Momentum is now beginning to shift.

The bears, after months of control, are showing clear signs of exhaustion. Selling pressure is no longer accelerating, and downside follow through has weakened. On the other side, the bulls are starting to reassert themselves. March saw a return of strong ETF inflows, signalling renewed institutional demand, alongside improving onchain metrics.

Layer on top of that a historically strong month, and the setup becomes increasingly constructive.

If Bitcoin were to align with its historical April average of 33.4%, it would place price in the region of $90K. While that is not a forecast, it provides a framework for what a strong recovery phase could look like. More importantly, a move of that magnitude would likely signal that the bear phase has ended and that the market is transitioning back into expansion.

As always, the focus should not be on a single outcome, but on the shift in conditions.

After months of downside, the balance is beginning to tilt. March may have been modest in percentage terms, but structurally, it was one of the most important months in this cycle so far.

In the News

Aussie Super Funds Eye Bitcoin

A long standing gap within the Australian superfund industry has been its lack of exposure to Bitcoin and digital assets. Despite global momentum, most funds have remained on the sidelines, offering little to no access for clients. That may now be starting to change, with Hostplus reportedly exploring the introduction of digital assets as an investment option.

If implemented, this would mark a meaningful shift. Superannuation represents a significant pool of capital, and even a small allocation to Bitcoin could drive notable demand. While AMP introduced Bitcoin exposure back in 2024 and faced backlash from traditional players like Vanguard, the landscape in 2026 is very different. Adoption has accelerated globally, and Australia now appears to be moving in the same direction.

Tether Moves Towards Full Audit

Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, has announced it will undergo its first full independent audit conducted by a Big Four accounting firm. This is a major step forward for transparency within the digital asset space, particularly given the systemic importance of stablecoins to market liquidity.

Following the stablecoin legislation introduced last year, this move sets a higher standard for accountability and trust. As institutional involvement continues to grow, these developments play a key role in strengthening the foundation of the industry and reducing long standing concerns around reserve backing and stability.

Oil Becomes the Pressure Point

As a result of the Middle East conflict, crude oil has become a focal point for global markets. The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly 20% of global oil flows, has faced disruption, driving a sharp increase in prices.

Crude surged to highs of $120 and is currently trading around $100. With the conflict showing no signs of slowing, some analysts are now projecting significantly higher prices, with prediction markets assigning a 21% probability of oil reaching $200 at some point this year.

The implications of this are broad. Rising oil prices feed directly into inflation, increasing costs across nearly every industry, from transport to manufacturing. This adds further pressure to an already fragile macro environment and reinforces the importance of assets that can operate outside traditional economic constraints.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in March 2026:

Bitcoin increased by 1.83% in March
Ethereum increased by 7.07% in March
PAX Gold fell by 12.8% in March
Hyperliquid was the clear standout up 17.03% in March
The total crypto market cap grew by 1.89%

Video of the month

Australian Banks Are Blocking Bitcoin Purchases…Here's What They Don't Want You to Know.

Adam Hudson and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Understanding Correlation

One of the most important concepts in markets, yet one of the most overlooked, is correlation.

Correlation measures how assets move relative to each other. When assets are positively correlated, they move in the same direction. When they are negatively correlated, they move in opposite directions. This relationship underpins how capital is allocated across markets.

Traditionally, the structure has been clear.

Bitcoin has largely traded as a risk asset, often showing a strong positive correlation with equities. At times, this correlation has been as high as 0.6, meaning Bitcoin and the S&P 500 were broadly moving together. When equities sold off, Bitcoin typically followed.

That relationship is now starting to break down.

As the recent conflict escalated, the S&P 500 moved lower, yet Bitcoin continued to absorb capital. The correlation has not disappeared, but it has weakened significantly, now fluctuating between 0.28 and 0.49. This is a meaningful shift and signals that Bitcoin is no longer tightly bound to equity market behaviour.

As shown below, this breakdown is clearly visible, with correlation becoming more unstable and less predictive of Bitcoin’s direction.

At the same time, Bitcoin is not behaving like a traditional safe haven either.

Gold, which typically benefits during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, has not shown a consistent relationship with Bitcoin. The correlation between the two remains unstable, frequently shifting between positive and negative territory.

This reinforces an important point.

Bitcoin is not simply replacing gold, nor is it behaving like equities. It is beginning to trade independently.

As shown below, the lack of a stable correlation with gold highlights that Bitcoin is still in a transition phase, carving out its own role within the global financial system.

This is a critical shift.

Under the old framework, Bitcoin was viewed as a high risk extension of equities. Under this emerging framework, it is becoming an asset that does not cleanly fit into traditional categories.

For investors, this changes how Bitcoin should be viewed.

If you are only watching equities or gold to understand Bitcoin, you are likely to misread the market. The relationships that once defined its behaviour are no longer as reliable.

The key takeaway is simple.

Do not just track price, track relationships. Correlation tells you how the market views an asset. And when those correlations begin to shift, it is often the earliest signal that a larger structural change is underway.

Right now, Bitcoin is in that transition.

And understanding that shift is what separates reacting to the market from positioning ahead of it.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Disclaimer

The Rake Review: February 2026

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 11:12:03 +1100

How Strong Is Your Bitcoin Conviction?

February was a true test of conviction for Bitcoin investors, forcing participants to revisit the reasons they entered the market in the first place. As historic records were set to the downside and bears tightened their grip, weak positioning was exposed and long term conviction was challenged.

A Test of Conviction and Psychology:

When it comes to Bitcoin, buying it is easy during a bull market for most retail investors, following the headlines, the hype and especially the fear of missing out (FOMO) in an uptrend. The bear market reveals those who really lack conviction and confidence in their Bitcoin purchases and will weed those out.

For the first time since 2018 and only the third time in its history Bitcoin has closed five consecutive red months. Not only this but it has also seen a historic day occur. Moving $10,000 USD from open to close in a single day. But unfortunately for the bulls these are not records that were desired.

Now down 50% from all time highs seen just five months ago, sentiment is at an all time low with single digit fear and greed readings. But Bitcoin remains above $60k, those who have conviction remain strong in the market and are taking advantage of these discounted prices.

Before we get into what smart money and those with conviction are doing, let’s take a look at what happened the last time we saw this many consecutive red months.The previous occurrences came in 2011 and 2018, both of which ultimately printed six red months and coincided with the latter stages of bear market bottoms before new expansion phases began. That isn’t to say that Bitcoin can’t extend its streak of red to longer than five or six months but it is yet another sign that we are closer to the cycle bottom than a top.

These are the times where smart money is doubling down on their conviction, it doesn’t matter if you have been in the market for multiple cycles or if you bought the top of the last one. Conviction is conviction, discounts are discounts. Those who did buy the top are using these periods to accumulate more Bitcoin and reduce their time spent underwater significantly, a deeper dive of how this can be achieved can be found in our recent Morning note here.

Conviction is not about perfect entries. It is about recognising value when it is in front of you and having the discipline to act. Greed exists during bear markets, people who stay sidelined as they wait for lower prices risk missing out on the major discounts altogether. Windows in bear markets close sooner than most expect. Whilst the chance of a further drawdown does exist, those who get allocated at discounts will often be in a much better position than those who tried picking the bottom and ended up missing it.

History shows that bottoms are processes, not single candles. They are built through exhaustion, disbelief and time. Five red months, a 50% drawdown, and a $10,000 single day move are not comfortable conditions. They are the conditions that test patience and expose weak positioning.

The market does not reward comfort. It rewards preparation.

This phase is separating reactive capital from strategic capital. The former waits for headlines to improve. The latter builds exposure when sentiment is washed out and risk to reward begins to skew favourably.

No one rings a bell at the bottom. But when fear reaches extremes, volatility expands, and multi month weakness stretches conviction to its limits, historically that has marked the late stages of corrective phases rather than the beginning of new euphoric cycles.

The question each participant must answer is simple. Are you reacting to price, or positioning for the next expansion?

Because when momentum returns, it rarely offers the same discounts twice.

The Rise of AI and Its Impact on Bitcoin:

A hot topic of February was the rise of AI and the threat it poses to many things we know and love within the world. Tech stocks faced the brunt of the concern and bearish price action as a result of something as simple as a post on X.

Claude AI introduced their Claude Code Security through an X post. The immediate aftermath saw $15 billion wiped from leading cybersecurity stocks including Palo Alto, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare. Beyond cybersecurity, IBM experienced a 13% single day drop, its worst day since 2000, after Anthropic launched its programming AI tool.

The market reaction was swift and ruthless. Narrative risk alone was enough to reprice entire sectors.

So the question naturally arises. Is Bitcoin next?

The harsh truth is that AI will continue to improve. It will create new products that replace existing ones. It will threaten business models and displace jobs. That evolution is not speculative, it is inevitable.

So could AI create a new blockchain or coin and replace Bitcoin?

The simple answer is no.

Consider how many altcoins have been created over time with the explicit goal of improving Bitcoin. Faster throughput, better scalability, enhanced programmability, lower fees. Yet none have succeeded in replacing it. Almost all have trended toward zero against Bitcoin over time.

It would be no different if AI were involved. Whether a human instructs AI to build a superior blockchain, or autonomous systems collaborate to design their own digital currency, the challenge remains the same.

Bitcoin is not dominant because it has the most advanced code. It is dominant because it has the strongest network.

Nearly two decades of uptime. A globally distributed node network. The largest and most secure proof of work hash rate in existence. Deep liquidity across spot, futures and ETF markets. Integration into corporate treasuries and institutional portfolios.

AI can optimise software. It can simulate economic systems. It can produce technically elegant consensus mechanisms. But Bitcoin’s moat is not purely technological. It is social, economic and game theoretic.

The Lindy effect applies. The longer Bitcoin survives, the more likely it is to continue surviving. It has endured exchange collapses, mining bans, regulatory hostility and internal ideological splits. Each crisis has reinforced its resilience.

Replacing Bitcoin would not simply require better code. It would require convincing miners to redirect hash power, institutions to rotate balance sheets, ETFs to migrate capital, developers to abandon infrastructure, and millions of holders to exchange the hardest digital monetary asset ever created for something unproven.

That is not a product upgrade. That is a global coordination problem.

AI is more likely to enhance Bitcoin than replace it. It can improve security tooling, optimise mining efficiency, strengthen Lightning infrastructure and refine on chain analytics. In many ways, AI could accelerate Bitcoin’s maturity.

The more realistic short term impact is narrative competition. Capital follows attention. If AI continues to dominate headlines, speculative liquidity may rotate toward AI related equities and tokens.

But Bitcoin is not a software company. It is a monetary network.

Monetary networks are not replaced because something faster appears. They are replaced when trust breaks. And nearly twenty years in, Bitcoin’s trust layer remains intact.

AI will reshape industries. It will create disruption and volatility.

But replacing the most secure and decentralised digital monetary network ever created?

That bar is far higher than writing better code.

February Extends the Red Streak. Can March Reverse Momentum?

We mentioned that Bitcoin has now printed a fifth consecutive red month, with February closing down 15% and price falling to levels not seen since October 2024. Conviction continues to be tested as bears maintain short term control of the market.

Momentum is clearly to the downside on the higher timeframes. Lower highs have formed, rallies are being sold into, and sentiment remains fragile. But as history shows, it is precisely these environments that tend to offer asymmetric opportunities. We now turn to March.

Historically, March has not been the most consistent month for Bitcoin. Only six of the last fifteen March closes have been green. However, those green months have been significant, strong enough to skew the average March return to +10.9%. In other words, whilst the probability of a green month is not dominant, when March does perform, it performs meaningfully.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ni2ffVNe/

The chart above highlights the position Bitcoin currently finds itself in. Price is trading within a clear bearish structure on the daily timeframe, with resistance overhead and momentum yet to convincingly shift. The market is cautious, liquidity remains thin on rallies, and volatility expansion suggests another decisive move is building.

Yet bearish structure and opportunity are not mutually exclusive.

We have covered extensively in our Stormrake Morning Notes why accumulation during periods of compression and fear can provide a structural edge. Whether you are a new entrant looking to build exposure, an investor who bought higher and is currently underwater, or a multi cycle participant with deep conviction, these environments reward strategic positioning rather than emotional reaction.

If you are underwater, periods like this can materially reduce your breakeven level through disciplined accumulation. For new entrants, these are prices that were considered unattainable just months ago. And for those with experience, there is little need for persuasion. You understand that volatility is the entry fee for asymmetric upside.

It is also worth remembering that Bitcoin has never printed more than six consecutive red months in its history. On previous occasions where streaks of this magnitude ended, they coincided with the latter stages of bear markets and preceded significant upside expansions.

This is not a definitive bottom call. Nor are we suggesting that if March closes green the path lower is permanently closed. Markets do not move in straight lines, and macro headwinds still exist.

What we are saying is this. Five red months. A 50% drawdown. A $10,000 single day move. Single digit fear readings.

Historically, environments like this have been far closer to long term opportunity than late cycle risk. Volatility remains elevated. Uncertainty remains high. But from a cycle perspective, we are statistically and structurally much closer to the bottom than the top.

In the News

US Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariffs

Last month we highlighted the pending US Supreme Court decision regarding President Trump’s tariff authority, with prediction markets assigning roughly a 35% probability that the ruling would favour the administration. The decision has now landed, with the court determining the tariffs were unlawful.

However, policy uncertainty did not end there. In response, Trump announced a fresh round of global tariffs at 10%, before subsequently increasing them to 15%. Whilst the legal question may have been addressed, trade tensions remain unresolved. Markets dislike uncertainty more than they dislike bad news, and the back and forth continues to inject volatility into risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Geopolitical Tensions Return to the Middle East

Risk off sentiment returned as tensions escalated once again in the Middle East, involving Iran, the US and Israel. The United States has deployed one of its largest naval presences in the region in decades, whilst Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered immediate market reactions. Bitcoin sold off sharply during the escalation whilst PAXG has begun to rally again.

Jane Street Under Scrutiny

Jane Street, a dominant quantitative trading firm and key liquidity provider across both traditional and crypto markets, is reportedly facing potential claims exceeding $1 billion linked to its alleged role in the 2022 Terra Luna collapse. In addition, market participants have pointed to repeated sharp Bitcoin moves around 10am EST, aligning with the US equity open, raising questions around cross asset liquidity dynamics.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in February 2026:

Bitcoin fell 15% in February
Ethereum declined 20% during the month
Stablecoin dominance increased by 17% in February
PAXG stood out, rising 10% whilst the majority of the market closed red
The total crypto market capitalisation fell by 13%

Video of the month

Bitcoin Is Going to $35,000. Here's Why I'm Buying. - Money Markets & Mayhem and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Real World Bitcoin Adoption

One of the most common questions surrounding Bitcoin is simple. How do you actually use it? It is also often framed as criticism by those unfamiliar with the ecosystem. You cannot spend your Bitcoin, so what is the point?

We have consistently reinforced Bitcoin’s core value proposition as a monetary asset. It is decentralised, scarce, censorship resistant and transferable without reliance on a central authority. That foundation alone resolved one of the biggest problems in finance, sending value peer to peer across the globe without needing permission from a bank or intermediary.

There is no debate around the success of that use case.

However, adoption does not stop at holding. Utility evolves.

The real innovation has come from the development of Layer 2 infrastructure, particularly the Lightning Network, built on top of Bitcoin to improve speed and scalability. Lightning enables near instant transactions with extremely low fees, making everyday payments practical in a way that base layer transactions were never designed to handle at scale.

Lightning does not replace Bitcoin. It enhances it.

By moving transactions off chain while still ultimately settling in Bitcoin, Lightning dramatically increases throughput. Payments that once required waiting for confirmations can now be completed in seconds. Fees are often fractions of a cent, opening the door for microtransactions and real world retail usage.

And the growth is measurable.

As shown in the chart above, estimated monthly Lightning volume has expanded from just $12.1 million in August 2021 to $78.2 million in August 2023. By November 2024 that figure had surged to $286.5 million, and projections for November 2025 stand at $1.17 billion.

That is not theoretical adoption. That is exponential growth.

But volume alone does not tell the full story.

The Lightning Network has evolved from an experimental scaling solution into a fully developed industry layer built on top of Bitcoin.

The growth of Lightning is not just visible in transaction volume. It is visible in real world usage.

As explored in our piece “One Steak Sandwich and a Side Of Bitcoin Please”, Bitcoin is no longer confined to online transfers or speculative holding. It is being used in physical environments, from restaurants to retail counters, where customers can pay instantly via Lightning by scanning a QR code.

What once required a card terminal, a bank intermediary and processing fees can now be settled peer to peer in seconds.

Major exchanges have integrated Lightning deposits and withdrawals. Wallet providers have refined user experience across both custodial and non custodial options. Payment processors allow merchants to accept Bitcoin and instantly convert to local currency if they wish, removing volatility risk whilst benefiting from lower fees and zero chargebacks.

For everyday users, the process is simple. A Lightning enabled wallet, a small Bitcoin balance, and the ability to transact globally without restriction.

In emerging markets, Lightning is being used for remittances and small business transactions. In developed economies, it is increasingly used for retail payments, online services and tipping. The use cases are expanding quietly rather than loudly, which is often how real adoption takes hold.

The idea that Bitcoin cannot be spent is outdated.

The infrastructure exists. The usage is growing. The real world examples are no longer theoretical.

Bitcoin remains digital hard money at its base layer. But through Lightning, it is also becoming a practical and scalable payment network that can function in day to day life.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: January 2026

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 12:54:41 +1100

Bitcoin’s True Purpose

Bitcoin is not the next safe haven but the next global reserve currency. As fiat systems crack and liquidity returns, Bitcoin’s true role is emerging. This is not a repeat of past cycles but a structural reset. Still undervalued, still early.

Bitcoin Is Not a Safe Haven but Something Bigger

For a long time, people positioned themselves in Bitcoin as a modern version of a classical safe haven asset, comparable to gold or silver. While the price correlation has not held for over half a decade, the narrative persisted. But the last 12 months, and particularly January, have thrown a clear spotlight on the negative correlation between the two.

There is no debate that gold, and by extension silver, remains the dominant safe haven. With over 5,000 years of proven history, gold has long served as a reliable store of wealth. Bitcoin was dubbed ‘Digital Gold’ early on, sharing traits like finite supply, resistance to replication, and protection against fiat currency devaluation. But beyond these shared characteristics, the assets behave quite differently and that distinction benefits both.

Gold thrives in risk off environments, a trend made clear over the past year. It has performed well alongside silver, which has arguably been the standout asset of the past 12 months. Despite the similarities in branding, Bitcoin’s purpose is not to replace gold as a safe haven. Nor is it purely a risk on asset, although it tends to outperform when liquidity flows freely through the economy.

Bitcoin was originally built to exchange value peer to peer, without the need for third parties or centralised intermediaries. It served that role early on, particularly during the Silk Road era and through small-scale peer to peer transactions. Over time, its volatile price action and cyclical behaviour have aligned it more closely with risk assets, leading to a perception of it as a speculative vehicle, a ‘number go up’ asset.

As the space drifted from Bitcoin’s original intent, the past month has served as a reminder of its core purpose. This time, though, the shift comes with global awareness and real infrastructure backing the transition.

The US Government Are the Architects of Their Own Demise

It is not every day you watch the world’s biggest currency unravel in plain sight, and yet that is exactly what is happening with the US dollar. Orchestrated by the US Government itself.

January was one of the busiest months in recent memory, not for Bitcoin’s price action but for macro events. While Bitcoin has not yet made a significant move, under the surface new opportunities are emerging, triggered largely by the actions of the US Government.

Headlines were dominated by controversy over US involvement in Venezuela, a heated tariff standoff involving Greenland that eventually ended in a deal, and yet another looming government shutdown over ICE funding. While we will not dive into those in this note, two specific developments carry far more weight and could reshape not just Bitcoin’s future, but the global financial system as a whole.

We have been covering the deterioration in the Japanese economy and the yen for several months, and it now looks like the long anticipated intervention has arrived. The US is selling dollars to buy yen in an attempt to stabilise Japan’s currency. But this move has broader consequences. By actively weakening the dollar, the US is eroding its own citizens’ purchasing power. And because the US dollar is still the global reserve currency, this erosion affects nearly everyone, whether they realise it or not.

To dive deeper into the BOJ's role and how yen intervention may impact Bitcoin, read our full breakdown:Bitcoin, BOJ Yields, and the Yen: The Next Financial Tug-of-War

As a result, most assets priced in USD, which is nearly everything, appear to be rising. But if everything is increasing against the dollar, the key question becomes: are these assets actually gaining value, or is the dollar simply losing it?

Markets are already pricing in the intervention. The DXY has begun to decline against all major currencies including the yen, and traders are preparing for the official confirmation. This move may accelerate volatility, particularly in the yen carry trade. Institutions that borrowed yen using USD may now need to sell risk on assets to unwind their positions as the yen strengthens. That could bring temporary downside pressure, but at the same time, Bitcoin and other USD denominated assets are likely to benefit from continued dollar weakness.

But price action is not the core issue here. The real concern is the structural weakness of fiat currencies, and more critically, the vulnerability of the global reserve currency itself. This is not the first time the US has deliberately devalued the dollar to support a foreign currency. Each time it happens, it chips away at the dollar’s credibility and damages trust. It punishes the public, hollows out purchasing power, and nudges both individuals and institutions toward alternative stores of value. No matter which nation holds the reserve currency title, if the system is fiat based, it is inherently unsustainable. History is full of failed fiat regimes. This latest intervention is simply another signal that the US dollar is no longer fit to serve as the global benchmark. And that is exactly where Bitcoin enters the conversation.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. So no, a new fiat global reserve currency is extremely unlikely. Gold and silver have both played that role before, but each comes with limitations. Bitcoin offers a modern solution. It is not controlled by any single party, it cannot be diluted or manipulated, and it shares many of gold’s advantages while removing the pain points. It is highly divisible, borderless, has no physical storage requirements, and can be transacted and settled within minutes.

Bitcoin is the only real candidate for the next global reserve currency. Investors should not view it as a safe haven replacement or a trade for number go up. They should understand and embrace its core purpose. That purpose is only fulfilled once it becomes the global reserve and unit of account. Every move in price between now and then is simply the side effect of that long term trajectory.

The US Is Not on a Sustainable Path

The US Government is not only responsible for the demise of the dollar through monetary intervention, it is also undermining its own economy. US national debt has surged to $38.5 trillion, with over a third of it needing to be refinanced this year alone. This was a central point in our Stormrake 2026 thesis and one of the most bullish macro factors for Bitcoin.

Even Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has admitted that the level of US debt is not unsustainable, but the path is unsustainable. Back in 2020, the national debt stood at $23 trillion. In just six years, that figure has increased by more than 50 percent. This has dramatically devalued the dollar and fuelled inflation through unchecked money printing. The strategy has been to kick the can down the road, but time is running out. Some forecasts put total US debt at $59 trillion within a decade, and potentially at $100 trillion by 2048 if this trend continues.

The issue is not just the total debt. It is also the debt to GDP ratio, which now exceeds 120 percent. This figure measures how much debt a country holds relative to its economic output, and it is widely used to assess fiscal sustainability. In general, the lower the better. Once a country crosses the 120 percent threshold, history suggests there is often no return. The result is either hyperinflation or the end of reserve currency status.

Weimar Germany, Venezuela and Argentina are all examples of hyperinflation following unsustainable debt to GDP levels. But the last time a global reserve currency faced this dilemma was post World War II Britain. The UK’s debt to GDP ratio hit 250 percent. While it avoided hyperinflation, the pound sterling quickly lost its global reserve status. It was replaced by the US dollar.

History may not repeat, but it often rhymes. Based on the current trajectory, the US dollar is likely to suffer a similar fate. Whether it ends in hyperinflation or a changing of the guard, both outcomes point to one thing. A bullish future for Bitcoin.

2025 to 2026: A Replay of 2021 to 2022?

One of the key narratives throughout January was whether this market is simply repeating the same cycle we saw four years ago. From a technical perspective and in terms of market structure, the similarities are undeniable. But the macro backdrop is very different.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ccSqrsPc/

The chart above shows Bitcoin price action in the top panel and the US liquidity index in the bottom panel. There is no denying that the pattern between 2021 and 2022 and what we are seeing in 2025 and 2026 looks remarkably similar. In both cases we saw an all time high, followed by a deep correction, and then another marginal all time high. Back in 2021, the peak was followed by a nearly 80 percent drawdown during the bear market. While we have not yet seen a correction of that magnitude this time, many are calling for a repeat. But there is one crucial macro difference, liquidity.

Bitcoin thrives in high liquidity environments, and this time the liquidity dynamics are the opposite of what they were in 2022. Back then, the US Federal Reserve delivered one of the fastest rate hike cycles in history, drained liquidity by rolling over its balance sheet, and avoided new Treasury purchases. In short, they were pulling dollars out of the system.

In 2026, we are now seeing interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is once again buying US Treasuries, and liquidity is flowing back into the system. Quantitative tightening has ended, and the market is starting to price in the return of quantitative easing.

At this moment, liquidity appears to be basing, if not already rising. That matters. Bitcoin performs best in environments where liquidity is expanding. So when people argue that this cycle is simply repeating the last, they are often ignoring the single most important driver behind Bitcoin’s price action.

This does not mean Bitcoin cannot correct lower in the short term. But if liquidity continues to increase, it becomes extremely unlikely that Bitcoin will follow the same path it did in 2022.

In the News

Australian Inflation Surprises to the Upside

The Reserve Bank of Australia targets 2 to 3% inflation, but the latest data shows price growth rising faster than expected. December’s CPI came in at 3.4% year on year, with forecasts for this release at 3.5% and a 0.7% month on month rise. When the data landed on 28 January, CPI had jumped to 3.8% year on year and 1% month on month, well above estimates. With an RBA rate decision due early next month, market expectations have flipped. There is now a 79% chance of a rate hike, compared to just one week ago when no change was priced in at 89%.

Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair

President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Warsh, who is seen as traditionally hawkish on monetary policy, triggered selling pressure across gold, silver and Bitcoin when the announcement was made. However, one key distinction is that Warsh has expressed pro Bitcoin views over the years in interviews, calling it an innovation that challenges fiat mismanagement. His appointment adds to what is now a fully pro Bitcoin administration under Trump, which can only support Bitcoin in the long term.

Warsh is set to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May. There are two Federal Reserve meetings before then, but markets widely expect rates to remain on hold at both.

Gold and Silver Snap Their Parabolic Run With a Sharp Correction

Just days after crypto exchanges began listing futures markets for gold and silver, with users leveraging altcoins to chase exposure, both metals saw brutal corrections. While the crypto derivatives were not the direct cause, their sudden appearance marked a clear sign that the top was near.

Silver posted its worst single day performance in 40 years, falling nearly 30% in one session. Gold also dropped sharply, correcting by 10% in a single day. The parabolic move unwound quickly, triggering major drawdowns and leaving late entrants and retail traders caught on the wrong side of the trade.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in January 2025:

Bitcoin fell 4.3% in January
Ethereum fell 5.5% in January
BNB flipped XRP to climb into 4th spot
PAXG was a standout, up 25% when the majority of the market was red
The total crypto market cap fell by 3.7%

Video of the month

Could Bitcoin Fall to $60,000 in 2026 and What Should Investors Do?

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Education: Understanding Global Macro Asset Classes

Many readers will recognise the visual above. It breaks down major global asset classes and shows the real size of each in comparison. Global real estate dominates the chart, followed by bonds, money markets and equities. Gold and silver, despite recent rallies, remain much smaller than equities. But what stands out most is Bitcoin's position.

This graphic is a reminder that asset valuations should be compared by market cap, not by price. Bitcoin trading at $90,000 and gold at $5,500 does not mean Bitcoin is more valuable. Market cap is the metric that matters.

Smaller market caps tend to come with more volatility. It takes far less capital to move a smaller market than a larger one. For context, gold gained $500 per ounce in just 72 hours, moving from $5,000 to $5,500. In that same window, its market cap increased by $3.5 trillion — more than double Bitcoin’s entire market cap, and it happened in under three days.

Bitcoin currently has a market cap of $1.7 trillion. That alone shows how early we still are. If Bitcoin were to reach silver’s current market cap of $6.666 trillion, it would imply a Bitcoin price of roughly $350,000. Bitcoin’s all time high in October 2025 saw a $2.5 trillion market cap with price peaking at $126,000.

A $6.666 trillion market cap is conservative if Bitcoin continues on its adoption curve and fulfills its long term purpose. Michael Saylor, Bitcoin’s most vocal bull, has projected a $441 trillion market cap by 2046 — absorbing a large share of gold’s monetary role — with a price target of $21 million per coin. While that figure seems outrageous to many, surpassing silver and matching gold’s market cap is not far fetched.

This also does not mean gold or silver have to fall for Bitcoin to rise. All three assets can rally together, with Bitcoin simply outperforming. At gold’s current market cap, Bitcoin would be priced at around $2 million.

To dig deeper into the comparison, let’s look at the Bitcoin to gold ratio.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bNqKvWCt/

The chart above shows how many ounces of gold can be bought with one Bitcoin. Right now, the ratio sits at 16, meaning one Bitcoin can purchase 16 ounces of gold. This comes with Bitcoin at $88,000 in a corrective period and gold at record highs around $5,500. The ratio peaked at 41 in late 2024. Since then, gold has outperformed Bitcoin by 60%, pulling the ratio back to levels not seen since August 2023.

So what does this mean?

It is a strong signal of undervaluation. The last time the ratio was this low, Bitcoin was trading between $25,000 and $30,000. Despite now sitting at $88,000, Bitcoin has underperformed against gold, returning to relative levels from years ago. That divergence makes this a clear buying opportunity for those looking to rotate back into Bitcoin. When the ratio resets higher, Bitcoin typically sees strong outperformance in the following months.

You're still early. Out of all the major asset classes, Bitcoin makes up just 0.2% of global value. Regardless of its nominal price, as Bitcoin’s market cap grows and it continues gaining market share against other global assets, the dollar figure will follow.

Written by Alexandar Artis

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin, BOJ Yields, and the Yen: The Next Financial Tug-of-War

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 16:49:57 +1100

Between the deluge of Japanese Bond Market volatility, yields spiking to highs not seen since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, a potential new Fed chairman and the re-opening of the US Government after the longest shutdown in history; we’re at a pivotal crossroad that’ll set us up for a monstrous 2026 and beyond. Bitcoin has seen significant volatility recently, both to the downside and upside in a very short period of time. While the uninformed and over-leverged investors have mostly been chopped up with recent price-action, we’re exceedingly pleased with how our clients at Stormrake have ridden out the waves of volatility with certainty and confidence knowing where all these short-term macro-headwinds take Bitcoin’s price in the long-run. Our long-term thesis for Bitcoin’s future hasn’t changed despite all the recent headlines and Crypto twitter doom-posting narratives that’re to be expected when people get flushed out at bottoms; not knowing the true value of what they’re holding. We’ve seen it during the 2017 bear market after the altcoin ICO bubble popped, also during the Terra Luna and FTX collapse of 2022. Once again, we’re cutting the wheat from the chaff while the market takes some time here to test the resolve of all its participants, both big and small bag holders alike. Those that remain steadfast with their pre-defined strategies and hold resolute to their future goals have always been greatly rewarded in time. Bear markets are where the future bitcoin millionaires are made, but as is the case with everything in life - nothing good comes easy. Patience and consistently by adding to position sizing has and always will be key to take full advantage of the opportunities that present themselves during this volatile time period. Understanding the macro-economic conditions, especially the Japanese Bond market and the potential strengthening of the US Dollar will play an important role in determining the direction and trend of risk-on assets such as Crypto in the short to medium term. Let’s take a look at how the Bond market is fairing across the pond in the land of the rising sun.

As Japanese yields are starting to teeter into all-time high territory, the market is reacting with bearish sentiment until this starts to un-wind. The yield spiking is a direct result of the direct selling pressure to offload treasuries given the somewhat hawkish pivot for Japan to unwind its Yield Curve control in the last few years and catch up with the rest of the developed world by having relatively higher rates to combat inflation.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/igmFGsxv/

This is particularly significant for global markets because Japan has long been a source of cheap credit. As the Bank of Japan moves toward unwinding its Yield Curve Control (YCC) and allowing yields to rise, it creates a ripple effect in global liquidity. The unwind of these policies reduces the availability of inexpensive capital for carry trades, where investors borrow in yen to buy higher-yielding assets in other countries. With rising yields in Japan, borrowing costs for these trades increase, forcing investors to deleverage and sell off risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. This tightening of liquidity puts downward pressure on risk-on assets, leading to heightened volatility and bearish sentiment across global markets.

Now apply that same principle directly to the strengthening US dollar versus a weakening Japanese yen. This is a systemic tightening of global financial conditions that directly impacts the appetite and capacity for risk, as opposed to a simple currency move.

A strengthening USD relative to the yen represents a deepening imbalance in the global funding system. For decades the yen has been the base currency for cheap leverage. Investors borrow in JPY at near-zero rates, convert to USD, and deploy the capital into higher-return assets: US equities, Emerging-Market assets, credit products, and increasingly Bitcoin.

When the USD strengthens significantly against the yen, the first-order of effect is straightforward: yen-denominated liabilities grow more expensive in USD terms, while USD-denominated assets must work harder to cover the same debt. This pushes leveraged players, especially carry traders, into a corner. They can no longer rely on exchange-rate stability to keep profits intact.

As the USD/JPY pair rises, anyone who borrowed yen to buy risk assets suddenly finds that the funding currency is weakening, and the asset currency is strengthening. In theory this sounds favourable, but only when the move is slow and orderly. A sharp or persistent USD surge tells the market something different: that liquidity conditions globally are tightening, that the Bank of Japan is losing control of yield compression, and that the probability of policy intervention or higher funding costs is rising. This is where the structural stress begins.

Another way we’re able to observe the structural decline of the Japanese Yen relative to the USD is simply by looking at the USD/JPY chart. This FX pair is one we’ve been eyeing for a number of years now and has proven to be highly effective as a barometer for broader market volatility, given its correlation to large macro-economic market swings for traditional markets.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ava8fiXi/

The amount of confluence on this chart is quite staggering; not only have you got a breakout of a 25-year long accumulation breakout to the upside, an Inverse head and shoulders bullish pattern that successfully completed, along with another breakout that’s now launched straight into price resistance with ease, you’re also currently looking at price-action coil upwards - appearing to get ready for another significant push higher, of which there’s very little headwind resistance above. A third swing-higher here will be a large move and will likely maintain the Yen carry trade for a while longer as the USD appreciates in value compared to the JPY, which could potentially signal a green light for risk-on markets to keep printing higher, despite the rising BOJ interest rates. Naturally, at some point the BOJ will need to back-stop a depreciating Yen if it keeps losing value rapidly, however they’ll need to tread lightly as domestic Japanese wages are still very low compared to other developed Asian countries, and a rapid increase in interest rates like what we saw here in Australia over the last few years would likely ravage an already tepid Japanese economy. This is good for Bitcoin in the long term and plays neatly into our BTC strategy for 2026 and onwards.

Bitcoin has taken the opportunity to correct and retrace to some excellent short-term buying opportunities over the past few months since the October 6th all-time-high, coming in at a whopping $126,000 USD per Bitcoin. Whilst this price push was short-lived, we stayed vigilant in not buying into the emotional euphoria and remained level-headed in our risk approach towards the market. Only four days later after printing the all-time-high we saw the largest liquidation in Crypto history ever on October 10th; where over $19 Billion USD worth of forced liquidations occurred from over-leveraged buyers that were far too exposed to downside risk, likely chasing the wave and coming in too late to the party. This is why Bitcoin blew out over the two weeks prior to the liquidation, as BTC held our aforementioned $108K support in late September and then launched into a massive +16% in the following two weeks. Conservative investors were taking profits during this time as we correctly identified the potential risk of a Wyckoff distribution pattern forming - of which, has since come to fruition. This is how the pattern forms from a textbook example.

Now let’s see how Bitcoin’s Price-action compares…

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/STNqKz28/

This was a bearish setup and conservative positions have since been rewarded with lower prices to add to position sizing with steep discounts. We can see it mirrored the setup near perfectly, although it was missed by many external retail participants due to the late-stage bullrun mania. This is exactly why remaining cool, calm and collected when adding to position sizing remains one of the most underrated skills in investing - as opposed to getting caught up in the “one more pump” mentality which saw bandwagoners take unnecessary hits to their PnL. The two solutions to this problem that plagues 95% of investors is simple; don’t use leverage, and always dollar-cost-average down, rather than up. While Bitcoin is holding in a price channel currently, let’s strategise an optimal path and determine how price-action might progress from here over the coming months based on BTC’s historical performance from previous bear market cycles.

After the selling cascade which lasted throughout the month of November, we eventually saw BTC find its temporary bottom at $80,537 on November 21st. Since then, we’ve been range bound and in an upwards channel trying to break the mid-$90K zone without any success.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cJHnjHpG/

Whilst the bottom came in and has since held our weekly support zone between $88K to $86K, of where we anticipated a potential higher low - ultimately our predicted bounce from here was to be expected sooner rather than later due to seller exhaustion. This doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods quite yet. Headwind price resistance still plays a major factor as on higher time frames we still remain in a downtrend despite the current short-term grinding higher. This channel BTC is stuck in is known as a “Bear Flag” pattern; quite the opposite of the “Bull Flag” structures we saw Bitcoin doing consistently throughout 2024, which saw it continually breakout to the upside getting us to six-figure Bitcoin prices in USD terms for the first time in history. These Bear Flags as you might surmise tend to break to the downside given they’re a bearish structure. If we see another selling cascade over the coming months which validates the pattern, investors can expect to see Bitcoin running the low $70K price range where more significant liquidity resides before another bounce may come into effect. This scenario would be highly correlated with the previous bear market if it plays out.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/MtAeTLWC/

During that time, BTC initially sold off, commencing its bear-market at the end of 2021, with a Q1 rally slowly grinding higher within a bear flag-like channel over the course of 91 days, before eventually completing the bearish pattern by spilling to the downside. This coincided with the Terra Luna collapse of May 2025, sending BTC plunging hard and fast from $48K down to $17K, in the red over -63% over just a few short months until June 13th where it found more liquidity at the 2017 highs. Once here, it formed another temporary bottom providing relief to HOLD’ers, until FTX collapsed five long months later; widely considered a result of the brutality that occurred earlier in the year which started the dominos falling.

In saying that, not every current cycle is designed to perfectly mirror the last - whilst the market does rhyme, it’s not always a 1:1 recreation, meaning in this instance a more substantial short to mid-term pump very well could be on the cards if buying momentum maintains strong here, before we then potentially go lower, so long as the market does eventually give us some very juicy prices at generational lows at $70K or below. This intermittent rally can be common in the earlier stages of bear markets, and is known as a “Failure-to-gain” rally. This is because whilst we get a strong move up, it doesn't take out the previous highs - essentially meaning the market prints a lower high before continuing the downward trend into lower lows.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/IMCQXsZl/

Whilst at first glance this might seem like bad news, it absolutely isn’t. This type of market price-action gives both bulls and bears an excellent opportunity to capitalise off volatility, before getting even better long-term entries to add to their bag sizes before the next generational Bitcoin bull market begins. Volatility = opportunity, and seasoned traders/investors can make the most out of this brief window of time to ensure they’re on the right side of the trade at all times. When generation lows do come, if you’ve made the right decisions along the way, you’ll hopefully have the most amount of capital available to you at the bottom - then loading up the truck becomes much more viable as you can scoop up what little BTC supply is available then, given the asset will get even more scarce, whilst other retail investors likely wait until it’s too late to pile in again at astronomical prices. Getting ahead of the curve in a bear market is arguably even more important than during a bull market cycle. Consistency and patience is rewarded usually in spades for those that execute and keep increasing their position sizes, this will be paramount over the next 9 - 12 months. Don’t get caught out again, just like those that waited for sub $10K BTC in 2022, just to end up buying back in at all time high prices yet again…sometimes a price too low really is too good to be true.

In the coming months we’ll be looking at what viable generational low targets might look like, and depending on how price action behaves over the next few months, we will outline a number of likely scenarios using historical price performance to get a head start on strategizing what the next most optimal moves are for this market moving forward into the years ahead. One thing will remain unchanged; Bitcoin is extremely well positioned to take advantage of the aggressive repricing of global asset valuations currently taking place. Gold and Silver bulls waited nearly two decades for the current skyrocketing prices where long-term participants that remained steadfast in their positions for as many years are now quite easily doubling their position valuations every couple of months - and consecutively too, all in just a short span of time. Time in the market will always remain the single most important aspect to long-term investing, and that’s been proven true for Bitcoin from cycle to cycle over its 17 year long existence. The only tangible edge available to investors is execution: staying liquid, staying disciplined, and being able to act decisively when the market offers sublime windows of opportunity that close as soon as the market regains stability. That is exactly where Stormrake fits. When price is moving fast in either direction, we make it simple to accumulate, rebalance, or scale out with intent through a private, professional desk built for high-conviction decision-making. Direction is noise - but access, timing, and consistency are the best advantages for long-term success in this industry.

Written by James Ryan

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The Rake Review: December 2025

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 09:26:00 +1100

2025: A Year in Review

As people unwrap their gifts this holiday season, it's time to reflect on a year that didn’t go as many had hoped. While Bitcoin is likely to close 2025 in the red, it has been far from a wasted year. Quiet wins, foundational progress, macro shifts have quietly taken shape and may set the stage for what comes next. Compared to many other assets, Bitcoin may now be undervalued, not just relative to its own history, but within the broader macro environment.

Rather than the usual monthly Rake Review, we’re taking a deeper dive into the year that was.

January: Trump Returns

One of the biggest stories from 2024 became reality in January as Donald Trump was officially inaugurated and returned to the White House. The bullish sentiment surrounding his return saw risk on assets push higher, with Bitcoin setting its first all time high of the year just shy of $110K.

Optimism spread quickly. Trump introduced the Crypto Task Force within the SEC and Gary Gensler stepped down as chair. He was replaced by Paul Atkins, a long-time critic of Gensler's anti-crypto stance and far more favourable towards the space.

February: The Month of Rumours

The bullish tone continued, but headlines shifted. February was dominated by speculation and two major narratives emerged. First, rumours surrounding sweeping new tariffs from Trump's economic agenda began to circulate and started to weigh on risk markets. Second, the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve began to build. It was still unconfirmed, but momentum was growing.

March: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Confirmed

March may go down as one of the most important months in Bitcoin’s history. The US Government officially announced the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. While Bitcoin had previously been adopted by countries like El Salvador and Argentina, the involvement of the US brought a level of legitimacy the space had never seen.

This move did not just validate Bitcoin to institutions and retail investors. It integrated Bitcoin into global government strategy.

April: Markets Liberated

Tariff speculation finally turned into reality. April 3 became known as Liberation Day. Trump announced tariffs on 185 countries, with a base 10 % applied to most and higher rates for others. The result was a broad selloff across markets. Bitcoin fell to $75K and the S&P 500 also posted its yearly low.

The fear was short lived. Markets rebounded and Bitcoin kicked off a seven week bullish streak.

May: Sell in May and Go Away?

That phrase has been passed around for years, but it did not apply in 2025. Bitcoin extended its rally and set a new all time high at $112K. This came as US debt surged past $37 trillion and confidence in the traditional system continued to erode. Investors rotated out of the dollar and into hard assets, with Bitcoin one of the biggest beneficiaries.

June: Middle East Conflict

Just as momentum was building, geopolitical tensions flared. Conflict between Iran and Israel rattled risk markets. A brief pullback followed, but it did not last long.

By the end of H1, Bitcoin was up over 15 % for the year, the S&P 500 had gained 5.5 %, gold was up 26 % and silver had climbed 25 %.

July: Regulatory Wins and Momentum

With conflicts easing and tariffs temporarily paused, July saw another push higher. Bitcoin hit a new all time high at $123K.

The month was also defined by major wins on the regulation front. The first Crypto Week was held in Washington and three key bills passed through Congress — the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act and Anti-CBDC Act. The GENIUS Act was signed into law, providing stablecoin regulation and clearer crypto guidelines. While not directly tied to Bitcoin, it gave broader confidence to the entire crypto space.

The first whispers of altseason began to surface.

August: Ethereum Runs and Executive Order Signed

Momentum carried through into August. Bitcoin pushed just above July’s high at $124K, but this time it was Ethereum that took centre stage.

Institutional accumulation was the dominant narrative. Spot ETF flows into ETH were at their highest since launch. Ethereum reached a new all time high just shy of $5,000, its first in nearly four years.

Another big win for Bitcoin came with an executive order that allowed digital assets to be included in 401K retirement accounts. A major step forward for adoption in the US.

September: Rate Cuts and Decentralised Momentum

September has historically been Bitcoin’s worst month. In 2025, price held steady, setting up a potential fourth quarter rally.

DeFi took the spotlight. Decentralised exchanges hit record volume. Hyperliquid continued to dominate until Aster arrived and quickly became a serious competitor.

Macro-wise, the US saw its first rate cut of the year. Signs that quantitative tightening was coming to an end, and liquidity was starting to return. A key turning point for risk markets.

October: New High and the 10/10 Crash

The month began with strength. Bitcoin hit a new all time high at $126K in the first week.

Then came October 10.

Trump issued a surprise tariff threat on China, this time at 100%. Markets sold off sharply. A stablecoin depegged on Binance, market makers were caught offside and Bitcoin crashed from $117K to $102K. Some altcoins dropped more than 80 % in less than 30 minutes.

Close to $20 billion was wiped in liquidations. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen over 30 % and is now red on the year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has recovered and gone on to set new highs.

November: Yen Pressure Returns

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/qB3DMMni/

The main story in November was once again Japan. Last year, it was a surprise rate hike. This year, it was surging bond yields that triggered another potential unwind of the yen carry trade, with both the 10-year and 30-year yields hitting their highest levels since the turn of the century.

Rising borrowing costs forced institutions to exit risk on positions, including crypto. Bitcoin came under pressure as a result.

Still, there was a silver lining. The US Federal Reserve officially announced the end of quantitative tightening. It did not spark a rally, but it laid the groundwork for future expansion.

December: Metals Take the Lead

Bitcoin was flat in December, with little interest in risk. The Fed cut rates, the BOJ raised them, and the effects cancelled each other out.

Instead, all eyes were on commodities. The Fed announced it would begin buying $40 billion in Treasuries. The first taste of quantitative easing. Gold continued to climb to new highs on daily closes, and silver surged 45 % for the month.

Bitcoin sat idle. But historically, metals lead the way and risk follows. That rotation may arrive early in 2026.

What Does This Mean for 2026?

There is no hiding from the fact that Bitcoin has underperformed in 2025. But it was a year of progress, development and structural change.

We saw:

Multiple all time highs
The creation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Pro crypto legislation signed into law
A crypto friendly SEC and White House
Expanded access to Bitcoin through retirement plans
The end of tightening and early stages of monetary easing

All of this came alongside a red year for Bitcoin and currently 30% down from its all time high. Expectations are more grounded going into 2026. No calls for blow off tops or vertical rallies. But given the policy backdrop and recent correction, Bitcoin looks far closer to a bottom than a top. The groundwork has been laid throughout the year, and whilst not reflected in the price performance of Bitcoin, it has been invaluable for the long term health and performance for Bitcoin…

At current levels, it is fair to say Bitcoin is undervalued.

Stormrake 2026 Bitcoin Thesis:

Stormrake expects Bitcoin to trade materially higher in 2026, with a base case range of $180,000 to $250,000. The drivers are not speculative narratives, but balance sheet stress, sovereign refinancing pressure, and structurally limited supply.

Roughly $7 trillion in US debt matures in Q1 (and over a third of all US debt to mature in 2026). It must be refinanced at meaningfully higher yields, pushing interest expense near defence-level spending. Policy is no longer about inflation or employment. It is about fiscal survival. Bitcoin benefits not from collapse, but from visible refinancing stress and the constraints it places on monetary tools.

Liquidity is returning, not through headline QE, but quietly via repo facilities, yield curve interventions, and regulatory nudges. The Fed is already injecting billions through overnight repo. That liquidity is flowing into scarce assets. Bitcoin absorbs it faster each cycle.

Post-halving supply is negligible. ETF flows are steady. Institutions are allocating gradually.

Corporate treasuries and long-term holders are reducing float. 2026 is not about euphoria. It is about absorption.

Risks remain. A failed Treasury auction, prolonged high rates, or renewed regulation can delay upside. But in every stress case, the long-term thesis holds. Bitcoin is not pricing perfection. It is pricing policy distortion and fiscal constraint.

Bitcoin in 2026 is not competing with tech stocks or altcoins. It is competing with sovereign credibility. Volatility is the cost. Scarcity is the payoff.

Video of the month:

Michael Saylor Keynote | Bitcoin MENA 2025

Education: Beyond Price: On-Chain Metrics That Matter

Most Bitcoin investors only look at price as a way to measure value and decide whether to enter or exit a position. But there is much more to Bitcoin than just price, especially when it comes to evaluating where we are in the cycle. This is where on-chain data comes in, helping to assess Bitcoin’s true value based on investor behaviour, holding patterns and capital flow.

Here are three of the key on-chain metrics we use to better understand Bitcoin's value. Each provides a different lens on sentiment, valuation, and cycle timing.

MVRV Z-Score: Market Value to Realized Value

MVRV Z-Score is a chart that uses blockchain data to highlight when Bitcoin is significantly over or undervalued compared to its historical fair value.

It’s based on three components:

Market Cap (black line)
Realised Value (blue line), not the current Bitcoin price. This is calculated by taking the price at which each Bitcoin last moved (wallet to wallet), then averaging those prices and multiplying by the total circulating supply
Z-Score (orange line), a standard deviation measure that identifies extreme differences between Market Cap and Realised Value

Source: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/

On the chart, the green band near ~0.10 represents undervaluation and typically aligns with cycle bottoms. The red band around ~7 indicates overvaluation and has historically marked cycle tops. When Bitcoin enters either band, a top or bottom has usually followed within two weeks.

Right now, the Z-Score sits below 1, signalling that Bitcoin is undervalued and still trending lower. If the price continues to drop, the Z-Score will likely follow. Should it enter the green band, this would suggest a bottom is near and historically has offered generational accumulation opportunities.

Short Term Holder Realised Price:

Understanding Sentiment Through Recent Buyers

This metric reflects the average price that Bitcoin has been moved on-chain within the past 155 days. Anyone holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days is considered a short term holder.

Short term holders are more reactive to market volatility. They are more likely to sell during corrections and are typically driven by short term sentiment. This metric gives us a clear picture of whether recent buyers are in profit or in drawdown.

Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/sth-realized-price/

The chart shows Bitcoin price (yellow line) against the short term holder realised price (green line). When price is above the STH realised price, it indicates a bullish market as these holders are in profit. When price is below, it signals bearish sentiment as they are in loss.

Currently, the STH realised price sits around $99.7K, while Bitcoin is trading at $87K. That gap highlights a clear sentiment shift. Short term holders are under pressure, which explains the weak price action and overall bearish tone.

This metric is not only useful for sentiment. It also often acts as a dynamic support or resistance level during different phases of the cycle.

Long Term Holder Supply:

Tracking Smart Money Accumulation and Distribution

Long term holder supply refers to the total Bitcoin supply held by wallets that have not moved their coins for at least 155 days.

Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-holder-supply/

In the chart, Bitcoin price is shown by the orange line, and long term holder supply is represented by the green area. This metric helps us see when long term holders are accumulating or distributing their coins, and it usually leads price action.

Long term holder supply tends to peak just before Bitcoin price tops. This is when early investors begin distributing. It also tends to bottom around Bitcoin’s price peak, as new long term holders accumulate during bear markets. An increase in long term holder supply after a correction typically signals the early stages of a new cycle.

Currently, LTH supply sits around 14.1 million, the lowest since 2021, after peaking in June. That peak occurred just months before Bitcoin’s current all time high at $126K. If this supply begins to increase again, it would confirm that the cycle top is in, and accumulation is once again underway.

These are just three of many useful metrics that go beyond simple price analysis. Together, they help identify whether Bitcoin is undervalued, measure market sentiment, and give clues as to where we are in the cycle.

As it stands:

MVRV Z-Score suggests Bitcoin is undervalued
STH Realised Price shows short term sentiment is bearish
LTH Supply points to a potential cycle top already in

All three tell a story that Bitcoin may be in a bottoming phase. These metrics should be tracked regularly as they are often early signals of where Bitcoin could go next.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The Rake Review: November 2025

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 13:32:32 +1100

November Brought Bearish Price Action but Macro Tailwinds Are Building

Just last month we saw all time highs. Now, one of Bitcoin’s largest buyers has paused its accumulation, bear market signals have triggered, and sentiment has turned. But despite all of this, several key factors suggest this market may be fundamentally different from those we’ve seen before.

Bitcoin Enters a New Macro Era

Since Bitcoin's inception it has followed a recurring pattern centred around the halving events, commonly referred to as the four year cycle. Historically this cycle has consisted of three years of bullishness followed by one extreme year of a bear market, often marked by an 80% drawdown. But this time, it is different?

New fundamental drivers that were not present in previous cycles have changed the structure entirely. Relentless buying from newly launched spot crypto ETFs, the emergence of Bitcoin treasury strategies from corporates, and most importantly sovereign accumulation of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset have all supported the bullish phase of this cycle. These factors are the reason many are starting to question whether the four year cycle is still relevant.

However, those who focus on historical signals still have reason to believe the cycle remains intact.

We are now exactly 36 months from Bitcoin's last cycle bottom, which lines up with previous timeframes. Bitcoin has retraced over 30% from its all time high, ETF inflows have slowed, and MicroStrategy has ended its six week Bitcoin buying streak.

The big question now being asked across the market is simple, how low can Bitcoin go?

Classic bear market signals have reappeared. Historically these have marked the beginning of prolonged drawdowns and crypto winters. Bitcoin's near 30% retrace from its October high has triggered a collapse in sentiment. Retail investors have begun panic selling at a loss after buying earlier in the year.

The Fear & Greed Index has remained in extreme fear territory for almost the entire month, with only a couple of short lived breaks above it. This level of sustained pessimism has only been seen a few times before, mid 2022 after Luna collapsed, mid 2021 during a 50% retrace from all time highs, and the March 2020 Covid crash when Bitcoin was at $3K.

While fear dominates the market, this is often where the greatest opportunities lie. For those who understand the fundamentals and look past short term price movements, the current environment looks less like the middle of a bear cycle and more like a major setup for the next move higher. Structural forces are now more relevant than cycle theory alone.

Bitcoin is an asset that thrives on liquidity. It performs best when money is flowing into the economy and people are spending. That happens when interest rates are low or when monetary stimulus returns. So far this year the US has only delivered one rate cut, fewer than most had anticipated. Markets are now pricing in a second cut in December which would bring the 2025 total to two.

Looking ahead to 2026, current probabilities give a 65% chance of at least three cuts next year. Lower borrowing costs would bring more liquidity to the system, which is supportive for Bitcoin.

Interest rates are only one part of the equation. The Federal Reserve also has a major influence through its balance sheet policies. Quantitative tightening drains liquidity from the market and generally weighs on risk assets. Easing does the opposite. Since June 2022 the Fed has been in a tightening phase but as of December 1 that has officially ended. While easing is not expected to begin immediately, the pivot has started and 2026 could see that shift begin in full.

Despite this tightening regime Bitcoin has performed strongly since mid 2022. A shift back to easing would only accelerate the next phase of growth.

These two macro drivers, increasing liquidity and looser monetary policy into 2026, are likely to shape the path ahead. The question now is which narrative will win out: the historic four year cycle or the fundamentally driven macro regime that is now taking centre stage?

The Hidden Hands Moving the Market

For most of Bitcoin’s life governments and large institutions were openly against it. It traded on its own path, following its own internal cycle, as mentioned earlier. But as the asset has matured, it has become increasingly tied to traditional markets and more sensitive to the influence of macroeconomic and political events.

As many of you already know, this year’s price action has been heavily shaped by macroeconomic forces, central bank decisions, and institutional positioning. From the US government’s creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to rising global trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions, external factors are no longer just noise, they are core drivers. But this month, we saw a return of something that had not impacted markets for over a year: the US government shutdown.

The longest government shutdown in US history is now over. What began in September ended this month in November, and once again it disrupted broader markets, including Bitcoin. During the 43 day shutdown, several key government functions were suspended. The Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to release critical economic data, leaving the Federal Reserve without the information it typically relies on to guide interest rate decisions. That kind of uncertainty causes hesitation among policymakers and creates nervousness in markets. For assets like Bitcoin, which historically struggle during periods of uncertainty, the effects were felt almost immediately.

The shutdown also had a direct impact on the Treasury General Account, which is responsible for distributing government funds. Between 60 to 70 million Americans were affected, including those receiving food stamps, government contractors, and essential workers. The lack of distributed funds meant that many households were forced to sell assets to meet basic needs. With over $1 trillion sitting idle in the TGA, this disruption removed a major source of liquidity from the market.

Many new investors might overlook the connection between political gridlock and market performance, but these events play a much larger role than most realise. And it is not just the United States driving these dynamics. Japan is just as critical, if not more so, to the global risk asset trade.

Japan is widely seen as the cheap credit engine of the global economy. Institutional investors including banks, hedge funds, and asset managers often borrow yen at ultra low interest rates to invest in higher yielding assets elsewhere. This is known as the Yen Carry Trade. It works as long as interest rates in Japan remain low and bond yields do not rise. But when those yields start climbing unexpectedly, it increases the cost of borrowing, and the trade begins to unwind.

We saw this carry trade unwind mid last year, and signs of it have reappeared this month. During the last unwind Bitcoin dropped 30% as institutions rapidly sold assets to cover yen liabilities. This month Japanese bond yields moved higher again, triggering a similar reaction. That unwinding pressure has been a major driver behind Bitcoin’s poor performance in November.

Both the US shutdown and the yen carry trade are examples of structural market dynamics that most retail investors miss. These are the kind of headlines that many gloss over, without realising how deeply they affect Bitcoin’s price. So while many are focused on the daily chart or waiting for a bounce, the real pressure is coming from much higher up the chain.

November Falls Flat as December Takes the Spotlight

November has historically been Bitcoin's strongest month for average returns, coming in at 40.5% over the last 14 years. But this time around, it did not live up to the hype. Instead of another blockbuster close, Bitcoin finished the month down 17.5%, its second worst November in the last 15 years.

Not only did November close red, but the drawdown also flipped Bitcoin negative for the year. That outcome would have been unthinkable to most if you told them at the start of 2025. The shift has caught many off guard and added another layer of pressure to December.

So now the focus turns to December, and whether it can break the streak of red months, close the year green, and give bulls some momentum heading into 2026. Historically December has delivered an average return of 8.42%, but it has been more of a coin flip in reality, with only seven out of the last fourteen Decembers closing green.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/mT1FubUm/

The chart above highlights the current technical outlook. November only compounded the bearish structure that took hold in October. Bears remain in control of both momentum and market structure, driving lower highs and lower lows and pushing Bitcoin back to levels not seen since April.

From an open just under $110K, Bitcoin dropped as low as $80K and closed at $90K. That kind of range reinforces the idea that this is still a market under pressure. Even if we apply December’s historical average return to current price action, Bitcoin would close the year around $98K, enough to flip 2025 green, but likely not enough to reverse the broader bearish structure or momentum trend.

So for bulls to take back control, it would take a clear breakout and performance that exceeds the historical average.

If the bears remain in charge, we could easily retest April’s yearly low at $74.5K, a level hit on Trump’s Liberation Day earlier this year. That remains a key line to watch on the downside.

December will also be a major month in the macro space. All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, both of which have the power to move markets in either direction. The Fed will decide on interest rates on December 10, with current odds showing an 88% chance of a 25 basis point cut. That move is likely already priced in but would still be supportive for Bitcoin.

The Bank of Japan is also in focus due to rising yields and the potential unwinding of the yen carry trade. Current probabilities give a 53% chance of no change and a 47% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The last time we saw an unexpected hike from the BOJ, the yen carry trade unwound and Bitcoin dropped 30% within a week.

Both central banks will play major roles in shaping December’s market conditions, and Bitcoin will be reacting to every move.

In the News:

Strategy May Consider Selling Bitcoin:

One of the most well known Bitcoin bulls, Michael Saylor's company Strategy, may now be facing pressure to make a decision that was once considered off the table. CEO Phong Le has stated that the firm would consider selling some of its Bitcoin, but only as a last resort.

This would only happen if Strategy’s stock (MSTR, market cap $50.9B) trades below a 1x multiple of its Bitcoin Net Asset Value, currently sitting at 1.19, and if the company fails to attract fresh capital.

The multiple could fall if Bitcoin's price drops significantly or if MSTR underperforms, causing markets to value the company below the worth of its Bitcoin holdings. While this scenario is not imminent, the fact that selling is even being mentioned marks a notable shift in tone from one of Bitcoin’s most vocal corporate backers.

Japanese Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs:

The yen carry trade works because of ultra cheap borrowing costs in Japan. But when those costs rise, especially unexpectedly, it forces institutions to unwind the trade by selling risk assets and repaying yen.

In November we saw exactly that. Long term Japanese bond yields surged, with the 10 year yield rising nearly 9% to its highest level since mid 2008. The 30 year yield rose 10% to reach an all time high.

This rapid rise has made borrowing more expensive and triggered early signs of another potential carry trade unwind. As noted earlier, a similar unwind last year led to a sharp 30% drop in Bitcoin as institutions liquidated positions.

December will be a critical month in this story, with both the Bank of Japan’s rate decision and possible currency intervention playing major roles in whether the unwind accelerates or gets delayed.

BlackRock’s IBIT Becomes the Most Successful ETF in History:

BlackRock was once firmly against Bitcoin. Now, less than two years after launching the IBIT Bitcoin Spot ETF, it has become the most successful ETF launch in history and BlackRock’s most profitable ETF product.

IBIT not only broke the record for the largest inflows in its first month, but by October 2025 it was generating an estimated $245 million in annual fees. It has now grown to hold over 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

This shift from active opposition to full scale adoption underscores how far institutional acceptance has come and how ETFs have become one of the most powerful forces in Bitcoin’s current cycle.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in November 2025:

Bitcoin fell 17.5% in November
Ethereum fell 22.2% in November
Solana and Tron both jumped in their rankings, SOL from seventh to sixth and TRX from tenth to eighth
PAXG was a standout, up 6.1% when the majority of the market was red
The total crypto market cap fell by 16.80%

Video of the month:

Saifedean Ammous Bitcoin Amsterdam 2025 Keynote Speech

Education: How Japanese Monetary Policy Impacts Bitcoin

We’ve spoken about how crucial Japanese yields, interest rates, and the yen carry trade are to Bitcoin, but how correlated are they really? Let’s take a closer look.

The relationship between Bitcoin and Japanese bond yields is quite a unique one. In the short term, the correlation tends to be negative. When yields spike suddenly, Bitcoin often sells off. But over the long term, across multi quarter and multi year periods, the trend flips positive.

If you zoom out and compare them since 2020, both Bitcoin and Japan’s 10 and 30 year bond yields have been moving higher overall. That shows a clear long term correlation. However, there have been specific periods where the two have moved in opposite directions.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/1jDETyow/

Since 2020 there have been three clear instances where a sudden spike in Japanese bond yields was followed by a sharp drop in Bitcoin. These occurred in mid 2022, February 2025 and again in November. In each case, yields rose sharply and Bitcoin corrected. On the flip side, in late 2023, yields fell and Bitcoin continued climbing. These periods tend to last one or two months before both assets resume their broader uptrend.

But the more persistent and clearer inverse relationship is between BOJ interest rates and Bitcoin.

For most of Bitcoin’s existence, the Bank of Japan held rates at or below zero. But over the past year, that environment has changed. Bitcoin is now dealing with a completely new macro backdrop that investors have not had to consider before, rising Japanese interest rates.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/9MXHpJmI/

The chart above shows that every time the BOJ has raised rates, Bitcoin has entered a period of weakness. This is largely due to the cost of borrowing yen increasing. As that cost rises, the yen carry trade begins to unwind and large institutional investors are forced to sell risk assets like Bitcoin to close their positions.

We are now approaching another critical moment. The BOJ’s December rate decision is still uncertain, with odds sitting close to a coin toss. The key question is whether the correlation holds. If the BOJ hikes again and the relationship remains intact, Bitcoin may face renewed selling pressure.

While it might not be obvious at first, Bitcoin is heavily tied to Japanese policy. The BOJ plays a huge role in global markets through its position as the world's primary supplier of cheap credit. What happens in Tokyo does not stay in Tokyo, and Bitcoin is one of the first assets to feel it.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The Rake Review: October 2025

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 12:16:11 +1100

October Brought Lessons and November Brings Opportunity

As has been the case throughout this bull market, October delivered both highs and lows in rapid succession, each one offering its own lesson. A new all-time high was quickly followed by some hard truths for those chasing quick gains.

From All-Time Highs to Hard Lessons

October has built such a strong reputation for Bitcoin performance that it earned the nickname ‘Uptober’ from the crypto community. This year started just as expected. Within the first few days, Bitcoin printed a new all-time high and optimism returned across the board. But instead of pushing higher, the market was met with a brutal reversal that flipped sentiment overnight. What followed was not just a dip, but a historic liquidation event that shook the market and reminded everyone of one core truth in crypto.

Once again, the market served a painful reminder of why leverage should be approached with extreme caution. We have said it countless times and will keep saying it. Most people are better off buying spot, being patient, and letting the market do the work. But still, time after time, traders try to over-optimise, copy trade, or take on leverage thinking they can outperform. Unless you are part of the 0.01% of elite traders who can consistently beat the market, which is unlikely, the smarter move is to focus on accumulation and long-term positioning.

Large liquidation events are not rare. They are part of the game, especially in high volatility markets like crypto. Institutions and market makers know this better than anyone. They use size and timing to push price into high-leverage zones, triggering stop losses and liquidation cascades. Once the books are cleared, price often reverts back to its previous range. These are not fundamental moves. They are mechanical, structured plays designed to exploit retail positioning.

The professional manipulators playbook is simple. Dump the price, trigger liquidations, buy at a discount, then create momentum and exit at the highs. For leveraged investors, it usually ends in a wipeout. For professional manipulators, it is just another opportunity to accumulate or rent seek.

Yes, this wiped out a lot of traders and left a sour taste, particularly for more traditional investors who already view Bitcoin with scepticism. But for those who understand how the market functions, this was just another shakeout. Bitcoin has been through worse. It has survived 85% drawdowns, major exchange hacks, insolvencies, and regulatory crackdowns. Each time, it recovers and continues to grow.

Unlike July, when a Satoshi-era whale dumped nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin and triggered widespread panic, this month’s price action has been far more stable and mature. Sentiment, while cautious, remains constructive. That alone says a lot about how far the market has come.

Despite the severity of the liquidation, we now enter a much healthier backdrop. We have seen rate cuts, progress on the geopolitical front, and continued institutional adoption. Smart money continues to accumulate, not panic.

Bitcoin enters November with strong on-chain fundamentals, a cooling macro backdrop, and one of the most reliable seasonal trends in its favour. Historically, November has delivered an average return of 40.5%, and nine of the last fourteen Novembers have closed green.

October brought records, both good and bad. But now the dust has settled, the opportunity is clear. The conditions are aligning for what could be a very bullish end to the year.

The Shift from Shelter to Opportunity

When it comes to asset allocation, investors have no shortage of options. Most fall into the risk-on category and tend to perform well when macro conditions are supportive. But when sentiment turns, there is often a clear shift into risk-off assets that are perceived as safer havens.

Gold is traditionally seen as the go-to risk-off asset, while the S&P 500 represents a typical risk-on index, made up of equities that benefit from bullish conditions. Bitcoin, however, sits somewhere in between. While it is increasingly being pitched as a hedge, it still behaves like a high-beta risk-on asset, sitting much further down the risk curve.

In last month’s Rake Review, we examined Bitcoin’s correlation with both ends of the market. The conclusion was clear. Bitcoin has little to no correlation with gold and moves more closely in line with the S&P 500.

This year has been unusual in that both risk-on and risk-off assets have performed well. Gold is up 53% year to date, the S&P 500 has gained 16%, and Bitcoin is up 17%. All three have posted new all-time highs, with gold emerging as the clear standout. Its outperformance has been driven by ongoing macro uncertainty, from tariffs and interest rates to conflict in the Middle East. While gold has led the way, risk-on investors have been watching and waiting for capital to rotate back out of gold and into equities, and eventually into Bitcoin.

October showed early signs of that shift. As macro concerns began to ease, including progress on US-China trade tensions, signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, and clearer communication from the Federal Reserve, gold entered a correction. It retraced more than 10% from its all-time high in just over a week. At the same time, equity markets rallied to new highs, suggesting that capital is beginning to move back into risk-on territory.

But Bitcoin remained stagnant. Despite improving conditions, it spent most of the month trying to stay green. This is not unusual. Historically, the rotation begins with flows moving from gold into equities. Only once risk appetite fully returns do funds begin rotating into Bitcoin and the broader crypto space.

For most of the year, the macro environment has been mixed. Sentiment has been fragile and policy uncertainty has kept many sidelined. Yet despite all of this, Bitcoin remains up on the year and has posted several new highs, all without a major rotation into the asset.

Now, with geopolitical risks cooling, macro clarity improving, and Bitcoin entering its historically strongest month, the setup is there. November could be the point where the larger rotation finally moves into crypto.

From Setback to Setup

October got off to a strong start. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high and was up 10% within the first five days, living up to the hype of ‘Uptober’. Momentum was building, and expectations were high. However, things quickly turned. After a brief period of consolidation, Trump announced new tariffs on China, and within minutes, $20 billion in open interest was liquidated. Bitcoin dropped from $117,000 to $102,000 in under 20 minutes.

The event shattered any bullish momentum. The rest of the month became a grind. Retail and institutional players largely stayed on the sidelines, while those caught in the liquidation cascade tried to leverage their way back in – and were wiped out again. Volatility remained high, but most daily moves reversed by the end of each session, creating choppy, directionless price action.

By 31 October, Bitcoin had failed to deliver on ‘Uptober’s’ promise. Despite setting a new all-time high early on, the month closed down 3.79%. There were multiple bullish attempts as sentiment began to turn – fuelled by the anticipation of an interest rate cut, optimism around a resolution in the US-China tariff standoff, and capital beginning to flow back in as gold corrected. But every rally attempt was knocked back by fresh headlines, the most damaging being Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone following the 25 basis point cut.

Still, throughout the month, we highlighted the broader opportunity. Weakness and underperformance created space to accumulate before what is historically Bitcoin’s strongest month – November. Over the past 14 years, nine Novembers have closed green, with an average monthly return of 40.5%.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/NRlZdWa2/

While October ended in the bears’ favour, the bulls have built a foundation for a potential November breakout. The bullish fair value gap, which acted as deeper support, has now been filled and offered the relief needed to stabilise price action heading into the new month.

Looking forward, if we take the historical November average and apply a 40.5% increase from current levels, Bitcoin could rally towards $150,000. While that scenario remains statistically unlikely – with Kalshi giving it just a 6% probability – it aligns with the 2025 projections many had been making for months. If it were to happen, November would be the month to watch.

The macro backdrop is shifting. A resolution between the US and China now looks to be in place following a key meeting between Trump and Xi, which resulted in a trade deal. Interest rate uncertainty remains the main concern. With the US government still shut down, key data releases remain paused unless further exceptions are granted. However, there is growing expectation that the shutdown will end in November, potentially unlocking the economic data needed to guide the Fed's final rate decision in December.

In the News:

Morgan Stanley Recommends Crypto Allocations:

On 5 October, Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Committee advised clients to allocate up to 4% of "opportunistic growth" portfolios and 2% of "balanced growth" portfolios to digital assets. This guidance, which impacts over 16,000 advisors managing $2 trillion in assets, marks a significant moment for institutional adoption. It reflects growing confidence from TradFi, especially on the back of Q3’s $3.9 billion in unrealised Bitcoin gains for firms like MicroStrategy. The move signals continued diversification into crypto as a potential hedge against inflation.

Interest Rate Cut and the Road Ahead:

We saw the second interest rate cut of the year take place, this time by 25 basis points, bringing the current target range to 4.00%–4.25%. The timing of the decision was complex. With the US government shut down throughout October and likely to remain so, key data the FOMC typically relies on was unavailable. An exception was made for CPI inflation data, but broader economic inputs were missing. Jerome Powell acknowledged that this made the policy decision more difficult, though the committee ultimately moved ahead with the 25 bps cut.

Markets had been split on whether we’d see 50 or even 75 bps of total easing between now and December. However, Powell’s hawkish tone during the press conference shifted expectations. His comment that “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion” spooked investors. As it stands, markets are pricing in a 68% chance of a 25 bps cut in December, with a 32% chance of no change.

October’s Cryptocurrency ETF Momentum:

October was a breakout month for crypto ETFs. Bitwise launched its Solana Staking ETF, while Canary Capital listed both a spot Litecoin ETF and a spot Hedera ETF. Meanwhile, 21Shares filed for a spot Hyperliquid ETF. The uptick in both filings and listings, particularly across altcoins, continues to legitimise the sector and signals increased institutional interest beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum. As the ETF landscape broadens, so does crypto’s foothold in traditional finance.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in October 2025:

Bitcoin fell by 3.79% in October
Ethereum fell by 7.64% in October
The top 10 remained unchanged from last month
Bittensor (TAO) was a standout performer of the month, up 38% for the month
The total crypto market fell by 5.50%

Video of the month:

Charles Hoskinson Keynote at TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025

Education: The Painful Truth About Leverage

Now this may seem like a familiar topic, and it is, but it remains one of the most important lessons in this market. Unfortunately, it is also the one most traders seem determined to ignore until it is too late. The consequences are rarely small. Portfolios get wiped, capital evaporates, and lessons are learned in the most unforgiving way possible.

This month was a sharp reminder of that reality. Over $20 billion in open interest was flushed out of the market in a single day. That figure is not a typo. It was one of the largest liquidation events we have seen in recent memory, and it unfolded fast. Overleveraged long positions were caught completely offside, with cascading liquidations driving prices down across the board and wiping out billions in unrealised gains.

Events like this show exactly why we continue to push the message of buying spot and keeping leverage to a minimum. It is not about being risk-averse. It is about understanding that leverage adds a layer of complexity that most are not equipped to manage. It amplifies your exposure, but also your risk, your margin for error, and your emotional response. In markets as volatile and fast-moving as crypto, that is a dangerous cocktail.

Using leverage means you are not just predicting direction. You are predicting the timing, the size of the move, and the reaction of other participants. You are betting against time, liquidity, volatility, and even platform stability. All of those variables can turn against you in a flash. And when they do, they do not just dent your PnL. They close your positions and leave you sidelined.

A sharp wick down can liquidate a well-placed long before the market even bounces. A funding rate spike can skew your entry. A flush in open interest can trigger a domino effect that wipes out hundreds of millions in positions. These are not rare events. They are baked into how the market functions.

The hard truth is that most traders simply do not need leverage. If you are bullish, buy spot. If you believe in an asset, hold it. Building wealth in this space does not require 10x or 50x leverage. It requires patience, capital preservation, and a clear head. The obsession with maxing out position size is what gets people rekt. You only have to get it wrong once.

We broke all of this down in our Thunder Trading article earlier this month. If you missed it, we are including it again here. It walks through the mechanics of what happened, why it happened, and how you can avoid becoming part of the next liquidation wave. We do not rehash content unless it matters. And this one matters.

Too many people lose too much money learning this lesson after the fact. Do not be one of them.

Stormrake returns to the Australian Crypto Convention

We’re thrilled to be sponsoring the Australian Crypto Convention in Sydney on 22 and 23 November. As a sponsor, we’ll have a dedicated booth at the event and invite you to come by, meet the team.

Our Director and COO Bisher Khudeira will be there alongside members of our senior team including our Senior Brokers, Senior Trader, and Senior Analyst, ready to connect and talk all things crypto.

The Stormrake booth will feature a popcorn machine for a quick snack and a live DJ booth to keep the energy high. Contact your Stormrake Broker for details and to secure your ticket.

We look forward to seeing you there.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

When Leverage Fails Spot Prevails

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 09:29:57 +1100

Time and time again, investors attempt to beat the classic buy and hold strategy by either overtrading or, even more risky, incorporating leverage into their trading approach. Leverage can come in a number of forms, whether it’s options contracts, derivatives, copy trading, or algorithmic trading bots. But all carry significant risk when things don’t go to plan, and often, all it takes is one event to reset everything to zero.

One wrong trade, poor risk management, or even events completely out of your control can determine whether you succeed or get wiped out.

Most investors will experiment with leverage at some point in their journey. And for many, these moments become turning points. Even experienced investors aren’t immune to losses with leverage. The old adage still rings true:

90% of investors lose 90% of their capital within 90 days when trading with leverage. That statistic alone shows where the majority stand.

Yes, spot holders are also exposed to volatility, but without the looming threat of a margin call or total liquidation. They may experience drawdowns, but the position remains. It’s not lost, it’s simply fluctuating.

This Weekend: A Lesson in Real Time

Over the weekend, we saw a textbook example of how spot prevailed once again.

A record-breaking $20 billion in leveraged positions was liquidated as Bitcoin dropped over 15% within 30 minutes. Most altcoins dropped further, with some down more than 80%. Anyone with leveraged exposure, including via bots or derivatives, faced margin calls and forced liquidation.

Meanwhile, spot holders experienced the same drawdowns, but crucially, they’re still holding their assets. A Bitcoin holder still holds their Bitcoin. An altcoin holder still owns their tokens. That’s the difference.

Let’s explore three simplified scenarios: Where three investors make allocations on Friday (October 10), their portfolio valuations at the time of the liquidation event at 8:30am (October 11) and then their portfolio value on the following Tuesday (October 13).

Scenario A: $100K Spot Allocation into Bitcoin

Investor A allocates $100K into Bitcoin on Friday, purchasing approx. 0.45 BTC
Saturday 8:30am: Portfolio is worth ~$85K
Today (Tuesday): Portfolio has recovered to ~$95K

Investor still holds 0.45 BTC

Scenario B: $100K Spot Allocation into an Altcoin (SUI)

Investor B allocates $100K into SUI at $3.40 (approx. 30,000 tokens)
Saturday 8:30am: Portfolio worth ~$15K (SUI drops ~85%)
Today: Portfolio has recovered to ~$80K

Investor still holds 30,000 SUI

Scenario C: $100K into a Leverage Strategy or Bot

Investor C allocates $100K into a leveraged strategy or bot on Friday
Saturday 8:30am: Liquidated, portfolio value = $0
Today: Despite recovery in BTC and altcoins, portfolio still = $0

Assets are gone, position cannot recover

There’s a clear outcome here. Investor C was completely wiped out. Investors A and B, while facing drawdowns, are still in the game and positioned to benefit from any further market recovery.

The Stormrake Difference

Stormrake offers spot-only access to digital assets. We do not promote or facilitate margin trading, leveraged instruments, or derivative strategies. As a result, our clients were not impacted by this weekend’s record-setting liquidations.

Those holding spots through Stormrake remain in control of their portfolios and their assets.

If You’ve Been a Victim of Liquidations:

First of all, it’s not the end. Many have experienced the same. You’re not the first, and certainly won’t be the last.

But it’s what happens next that matters.

There are two types of responses to a liquidation:

1. "I’ll act differently next time."

A natural reaction. You may tell yourself you’ll manage risk better, exit positions faster, or tweak your strategy. But fundamentally, the risk remains the same. No one predicted this liquidation event, and there’s no reason to believe something similar or worse won’t happen again. In the current macro environment, where a single headline or tweet can move markets dramatically, risk management becomes even harder to execute reliably. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.

2. Learn and adapt.

The better path. Learn from the liquidation and reassess your strategy. Consider switching to spot positions, remove leverage from your portfolio, and take a long-term view. Avoid chasing short-term, promised returns and give your assets the time and space to grow sustainably.

Final Thoughts

The market delivered a clear message this weekend. Leverage can be lucrative, but it's also ruthless. And when volatility strikes, survival is the priority.

Spot holders ride through the storm. Leveraged traders often don’t.

Make sure you’re still in the game when the next wave comes.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.