Stormrake - Insights #Middle East BTC

The Rake Review: April 2026

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:42:14 +1000

This Time It Is Different

April’s positive price action has brought into question where we currently are in the Bitcoin cycle, especially with prices now up approximately 30% from the February lows. The question on everyone’s lips is: Is the bottom in? While historical cycles might suggest otherwise, the underlying market structure and the shift in global adoption indicate that this time, we are witnessing a very different recovery.

Why Conviction Trumps Timing

The conflict in the Middle East continues with postponed deadlines for ceasefires and failed negotiations. Despite this, Bitcoin and other assets have shown great resilience and trended much higher throughout the month. Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed around 365 days following an all-time high, which would suggest a cycle bottom in October. However, things are different this time. The last few months have been full of bad news and events that historically would shake Bitcoin and send risk assets lower, yet the market is showing a unique strength.

Cast your mind back to 2022. Bitcoin was firmly in a bear market for six months from its all-time high. The Terra Luna collapse then sent shockwaves through the space, driving Bitcoin down 50%. Another major capitulation followed in November with the FTX collapse, sending prices down nearly 30% before finally finding a cycle low.

Compare this to the current landscape. We are six months on and roughly 40% from the all-time high. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has increased volatility, and historically, these geopolitical shocks do not bode well for risk assets. If this were 2022, Bitcoin would likely be continuing its move to the downside, selling off on every bearish announcement. Instead, while oil prices have surged, Bitcoin's reaction has shifted.

The key difference lies in the players. The 2021 and 2022 period was dominated by retail investors and traders. Today, the opposite is true. Institutions and smart money are the primary drivers while retail has remained relatively absent compared to previous cycles. Smart money understands when to take advantage of discounts, whereas retail often sits on the sidelines second-guessing entries. This accumulation during a technically bearish period is being led by institutional investors as ETF flows have turned positive and entities like Strategy continue to add to their positions.

Whether we have reached the absolute bottom or not, now is the time to accumulate. History shows that buying during periods of extreme pessimism is consistently rewarded. Consider those who bought in 2022; even when prices fell from $25,000 to $15,000, those investors are now up significantly. They accepted the possibility of further downside to capture generational upside.

Accumulating within 30% of a potential bottom is extremely rewarding for those with long-term conviction. We are far closer to the end of this bear market than the start. Do not wait for lower prices that may never arrive. Even if further downside occurs, you are currently positioning yourself at generational lows. So the real question shouldn’t be ‘is the bottom in?’ but more so, ‘how strong is your conviction?’. Your answer to this question will help you realise that the answer to the first question is irrelevant.

Check out our Quarter 2 Outlook for a detailed breakdown of where we are in the market and what the next couple of months may look like.

April has presented an opportunity; May you take advantage?

For the first time in nearly a year, Bitcoin has increased by over 10% in a single month. It has been an incredibly resilient month for Bitcoin and the crypto space, pushing higher despite the noise and headwinds fuelled by the uncertainty of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Bitcoin has not only increased by 11% in April but has seen its first bullish momentum cross since April last year. Let’s delve deeper into the price action. As aforementioned, Bitcoin is up nearly 30% from February , and in doing so, it has created a sustained bullish crossover which is incredibly constructive for the bulls.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GiB2bdjt/

May has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, delivering an average return of 19.4% over the last 15 years, with nine of those being positive months. Despite the bulls regaining momentum and having history on their side for May, the bears still control the overall structure with a series of lower lows. The bears are looking to create another lower high, which would remain the case unless Bitcoin breaks above $98,000. We are not looking to create a higher high in May; instead, we want to see a continuous climb in price action similar to what we have witnessed over the last two months.

Just as crucially, it is important to note the current bear flag that Bitcoin has been in since the beginning of February. The bulls are attempting to break out of this and nullify the pattern, but the bears are currently aided by key resistance at $80,000.

This will be the level to watch for May. If we see a sustained breakout above $80,000, we can look to potentially fulfil May’s historical average return and be very close to calling the cycle bottom. Whilst price remains under $80,000 and within the bear flag, the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at major discounts alongside smart money remains open. However, this window will not be open forever. Ensure you act on your conviction; your future self will thank you.

In the News

Stormrake Take America:

One of the biggest milestones in Stormrake history has just been hit, with Stormrake officially launching in the United States via a Zero Hash partnership. Officially announced at Bitcoin 2026 Las Vegas, the presence and the on-stage discussion by Stormrake CEO Michael Milmeister and COO Bisher Khudeira mark just the beginning of this journey.

Protecting Your Assets: The Risks of Rehypothecation

A concerning trend has resurfaced in the market that serves as a vital reminder for all investors: always check the terms and conditions of your service provider. Specifically, you must look out for the practice of rehypothecation. While some platforms may use this to boost their own bottom line, the practice is extremely dangerous and adds a significant layer of risk to your holdings.

Rehypothecation is when a provider uses your assets to earn themselves a yield. Much like a traditional bank, they take your capital and lend it out to third parties to earn interest. In this scenario, your assets are working, but they are not working for you. Even more concerning is that many of these agreements allow the provider to pass any losses incurred from these activities directly onto the client.

We have seen this practice fail spectacularly in the past, most famously with Alameda Research using the funds of its sister exchange FTX to invest and attempt to generate returns. The result was a total collapse that left clients waiting years to recoup even a fraction of their holdings. When choosing where to custody your digital wealth, ensure they are holding your assets 1:1.

At Stormrake, we do not rehypothecate your funds. Your assets are kept in an institutional-grade custody solution where they sit securely until you choose to move them.

Hormuz Toll Booth:

As we have been covering in recent Stormrake Morning Notes, the conflict in the Middle East has seen Iran virtually shut the Strait of Hormuz. The only way for tankers to gain safe passage is to pay a toll, with reported figures reaching approximately $2 million per vessel.

Due to sanctions and the restrictive nature of fiat currency, Iran has moved away from the US dollar and is reportedly demanding Bitcoin as the chosen settlement method. This development highlights the growing adoption of Bitcoin, not just as an investment or store of wealth, but as the global neutral settlement layer it was designed to be.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in April 2026:

Bitcoin increased by 11% in April.
Ethereum rose by 7.30% during the month.
Hyperliquid is up nearly 10% and is currently knocking on the door of the top 10.
PAXG declined by 2.74% for the month.
The total crypto market capitalisation grew by 8% in April.

Video of the month

Bitcoin Wins No Matter Who Wins the War - Here's Why

Mark Di Paola and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Bitcoin as the Global Neutral Settlement Layer

While headlines often focus on Bitcoin’s price as a speculative asset, April 2026 has provided a definitive real-world case study of its true evolution: its emergence as a global neutral settlement layer.

The End of the "Information Only" Era

To understand why this shift matters, we must look at the traditional financial rails that have governed global trade for decades. Traditional systems like SWIFT often act as messaging services where actual settlement takes days, involves high fees, and is subject to the operating hours of multiple jurisdictions.

Bitcoin represents a paradigm shift because it unifies the flow of information and the flow of funds. When a Bitcoin transaction is sent, the ownership of the asset is transferred and settled on-chain simultaneously. This enables settlement within minutes rather than days.

Why Neutrality is the New Gold Standard

In 2026, the concept of "neutral money" has moved from academic theory to geopolitical necessity. As we have seen with the Hormuz toll booth scenario, traditional fiat currencies can be restricted or frozen by issuing governments to enforce sanctions.

For global trade participants, Bitcoin solves this through three core pillars:

Permissionless: No central authority can block a valid transaction or unplug a nation from the network.
24/7/365 Operation: Unlike traditional markets that close over weekends, Bitcoin’s settlement layer never sleeps.
Sovereign Revenue: For the first time, states are using decentralised infrastructure as a sovereign revenue mechanism at major maritime chokepoints.

The Mathematical Imbalance

The functional use of Bitcoin in global trade also creates a structural impact on price. As reported in April, the Iranian toll system alone requires a significant portion of the daily issued Bitcoin supply to facilitate passage through the Strait of Hormuz. When a single real-world use case begins absorbing a large percentage of new issuance, it creates a supply and demand imbalance that exerts consistent upward pressure on the asset's value.

Bitcoin is no longer just digital gold for saving; it is becoming the digital rail for global commerce. Understanding this transition is the difference between viewing Bitcoin as a volatile trade and recognising it as the emerging architecture of 2026 wealth.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

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The Rake Review: March 2026

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 18:43:11 +1100

The Shift is Underway

March was the month everything changed for Bitcoin. For much of the year, we highlighted its true purpose. In March, that narrative became reality.

Chaos is Accelerating the Shift:

There are often turning points or key events within the globe that cause a major shift in the globe, usually in the form of revolutions or changes in world powers. These shifts catch most by surprise but those who were able to identify the signs early and position themselves are sitting in the best spot for once the change occurs.

The current conflict that dominated headlines and influenced every market throughout the month has accelerated this shift. The conflict in the Middle East, we saw it occur last year but it only lasted a couple of weeks, markets took a slight detour before recovering and tracking higher.

This conflict has already surpassed a month and isn’t showing signs of ending anytime soon, despite the chaos in the headlines. Historically these events have resulted in investors rotating into extremely low risk assets such as cash and gold. But to many surprise this hasn’t been the case, in fact we have seen capital leave the likes of gold and return into Bitcoin.

It is a sign of a shift in Bitcoin and its role in the global economy.

What we are witnessing is not just a short term reaction to geopolitical stress, but a structural change in how capital behaves under pressure. In previous cycles, moments like this forced a predictable rotation into gold and cash. This time, that playbook is being challenged in real time.

Across the Middle East, investors have been actively selling gold, not because they have lost faith in it as a store of value, but because of its limitations in a fast moving and uncertain environment. Gold is difficult to transport, costly to secure, and inefficient to transact across borders. In contrast, Bitcoin offers instant mobility, divisibility, and self custody. When capital needs to move quickly, those properties matter.

There is also a market structure element at play. Increased selling pressure in physical gold markets has led to local bullion dealers offering below market rates due to imbalances in supply and demand. This creates friction at the exact moment investors need liquidity. Bitcoin, on the other hand, trades in a global, continuous market where liquidity remains accessible regardless of local conditions. The ability to exit at a transparent market price is becoming increasingly valuable.

This shift is already visible in price action. Since the conflict escalated, Bitcoin has held strength and pushed higher, while gold has softened and equities have struggled. That divergence is not noise. It points to early signs of decoupling, a theme we explored in The Bitcoin Regime Change Has Begun and further reinforced in our analysis of shifting monetary dynamics.

Bitcoin is no longer behaving purely as a speculative risk asset. In regions where traditional financial infrastructure is strained or inaccessible, it is actively being used as money. Settlement, preservation of value, and cross border transfer are no longer theoretical use cases, they are being tested in real conditions. As highlighted in Bitcoin at the Strait, this transition from narrative to utility is critical.

At the same time, broader monetary conditions are reinforcing this behaviour. As confidence in fiat systems continues to fluctuate and global liquidity remains uneven, capital is searching for alternatives that are both liquid and independent. Bitcoin is increasingly fitting that role.

The key takeaway is simple. This is not just about one conflict or one month of price action. It is about a redefinition of what investors consider a safe or reliable asset in times of uncertainty. Bitcoin is beginning to earn that status, not through speculation, but through performance under pressure.

The Market Never Closes Anymore:

Keeping on the theme of this broader shift, we are now seeing it move beyond capital flows and into the structure of finance itself. This is where things become more meaningful. It is no longer just about where money is going, but how the system it moves through is being rebuilt.

Traditional finance has always been constrained by time, geography, and layers of intermediaries. Markets open and close. Settlement takes time. Access depends on jurisdiction, permissions, and counterparties. That model worked in a slower, more fragmented world, but it is increasingly out of sync with how capital now behaves.

Crypto infrastructure removes those constraints entirely.

Markets are now operating in a continuous cycle. Capital moves 24/7, reacting instantly to news, macro shifts, and geopolitical developments. There is no delay between regions, no waiting for sessions to overlap, and no downtime where risk cannot be managed. This fundamentally changes how participants interact with markets. Exposure can be adjusted in real time, and liquidity is constantly available rather than concentrated into specific windows.

This shift is not theoretical, it is already being stress tested in real conditions.

Throughout the recent conflict, major geopolitical updates have not waited for market hours. Trump, in particular, has made several market moving statements over weekends, a period where traditional finance is effectively offline. In previous cycles, investors would have been forced to wait, unable to react until markets reopened.

Now, that delay no longer exists.

On platforms like Hyperliquid, traders have been actively positioning in real time, not just in crypto, but in tokenised representations of traditional markets. Oil, the S&P 500, and major equities such as Tesla and Apple have all seen price discovery continue over the weekend, driven by these developments. By the time traditional markets reopen, a significant portion of that price movement has already occurred on-chain.

This is a fundamental shift in where and when markets move.

Hyperliquid sits at the centre of this evolution. It is not just offering an alternative venue for crypto trading, it is building infrastructure that mirrors and, in some areas, surpasses traditional derivatives markets. Onchain order books, deep liquidity, and continuous trading create an environment where capital does not need to wait for legacy systems to catch up.

The significance of this is underscored by its growing integration with traditional finance. The Nasdaq deal with Hyperliquid signals that this is no longer an isolated crypto native experiment. Established financial players are beginning to recognise the advantages of on-chain infrastructure, particularly when it comes to speed, transparency, and global accessibility.

At the same time, tokenisation is accelerating this convergence.

By bringing traditional assets on-chain, tokenisation allows them to inherit the benefits of crypto rails. Assets that were once restricted by market hours can now trade continuously. Settlement becomes instant, ownership becomes more flexible, and access becomes global. The lines between crypto and traditional finance are no longer clear cut, they are beginning to merge.

What this creates is a financial system where capital is always in motion.

Liquidity no longer sits idle waiting for markets to open. It reacts instantly to information, whether that comes from central banks, geopolitical events, or unexpected headlines over the weekend. Price discovery becomes a continuous process rather than a fragmented one, and increasingly, it is happening on-chain first.

The key takeaway is clear. Crypto is not just complementing traditional finance, it is actively replacing some of its core functions. When markets close, crypto stays open. And as more capital, infrastructure, and institutions move in this direction, the question is no longer if traditional finance adapts, but how quickly it can catch up.

A Turning Point Beneath the Surface:

Despite widespread uncertainty and continued pressure across traditional markets, March marked a subtle but important shift for Bitcoin. Breaking the streak of red months, Bitcoin closed March up 1.83%, avoiding what would have been the longest drawdown in its history.

While the gain may appear marginal on the surface, the significance runs far deeper.

March was a fundamentally strong month. Bitcoin not only held its ground but began to decouple from traditional risk assets, outperforming in an environment where equities struggled and gold failed to attract sustained demand. This is the shift we have been highlighting, and in March, it began to materialise in real time.

As we move into Q2, April becomes a focal point.

Historically, April has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest performing months, second only to November. It has delivered an average return of 33.4% and closed green in 10 of the last 15 years. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, it does provide a seasonal tailwind that aligns with the improving conditions we are beginning to see.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/5lWGOSPk/

From a technical perspective, March was largely defined by consolidation.

Price spent the majority of the month ranging, with multiple attempts to break higher failing to gain sustained momentum. This has created a clear structure heading into April. The key level for the bears sits at $60K, while the bulls need to reclaim and hold above $70K. A decisive break and hold beyond either of these levels is likely to dictate the next major move.

Momentum is now beginning to shift.

The bears, after months of control, are showing clear signs of exhaustion. Selling pressure is no longer accelerating, and downside follow through has weakened. On the other side, the bulls are starting to reassert themselves. March saw a return of strong ETF inflows, signalling renewed institutional demand, alongside improving onchain metrics.

Layer on top of that a historically strong month, and the setup becomes increasingly constructive.

If Bitcoin were to align with its historical April average of 33.4%, it would place price in the region of $90K. While that is not a forecast, it provides a framework for what a strong recovery phase could look like. More importantly, a move of that magnitude would likely signal that the bear phase has ended and that the market is transitioning back into expansion.

As always, the focus should not be on a single outcome, but on the shift in conditions.

After months of downside, the balance is beginning to tilt. March may have been modest in percentage terms, but structurally, it was one of the most important months in this cycle so far.

In the News

Aussie Super Funds Eye Bitcoin

A long standing gap within the Australian superfund industry has been its lack of exposure to Bitcoin and digital assets. Despite global momentum, most funds have remained on the sidelines, offering little to no access for clients. That may now be starting to change, with Hostplus reportedly exploring the introduction of digital assets as an investment option.

If implemented, this would mark a meaningful shift. Superannuation represents a significant pool of capital, and even a small allocation to Bitcoin could drive notable demand. While AMP introduced Bitcoin exposure back in 2024 and faced backlash from traditional players like Vanguard, the landscape in 2026 is very different. Adoption has accelerated globally, and Australia now appears to be moving in the same direction.

Tether Moves Towards Full Audit

Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, has announced it will undergo its first full independent audit conducted by a Big Four accounting firm. This is a major step forward for transparency within the digital asset space, particularly given the systemic importance of stablecoins to market liquidity.

Following the stablecoin legislation introduced last year, this move sets a higher standard for accountability and trust. As institutional involvement continues to grow, these developments play a key role in strengthening the foundation of the industry and reducing long standing concerns around reserve backing and stability.

Oil Becomes the Pressure Point

As a result of the Middle East conflict, crude oil has become a focal point for global markets. The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly 20% of global oil flows, has faced disruption, driving a sharp increase in prices.

Crude surged to highs of $120 and is currently trading around $100. With the conflict showing no signs of slowing, some analysts are now projecting significantly higher prices, with prediction markets assigning a 21% probability of oil reaching $200 at some point this year.

The implications of this are broad. Rising oil prices feed directly into inflation, increasing costs across nearly every industry, from transport to manufacturing. This adds further pressure to an already fragile macro environment and reinforces the importance of assets that can operate outside traditional economic constraints.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in March 2026:

Bitcoin increased by 1.83% in March
Ethereum increased by 7.07% in March
PAX Gold fell by 12.8% in March
Hyperliquid was the clear standout up 17.03% in March
The total crypto market cap grew by 1.89%

Video of the month

Australian Banks Are Blocking Bitcoin Purchases…Here's What They Don't Want You to Know.

Adam Hudson and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Understanding Correlation

One of the most important concepts in markets, yet one of the most overlooked, is correlation.

Correlation measures how assets move relative to each other. When assets are positively correlated, they move in the same direction. When they are negatively correlated, they move in opposite directions. This relationship underpins how capital is allocated across markets.

Traditionally, the structure has been clear.

Bitcoin has largely traded as a risk asset, often showing a strong positive correlation with equities. At times, this correlation has been as high as 0.6, meaning Bitcoin and the S&P 500 were broadly moving together. When equities sold off, Bitcoin typically followed.

That relationship is now starting to break down.

As the recent conflict escalated, the S&P 500 moved lower, yet Bitcoin continued to absorb capital. The correlation has not disappeared, but it has weakened significantly, now fluctuating between 0.28 and 0.49. This is a meaningful shift and signals that Bitcoin is no longer tightly bound to equity market behaviour.

As shown below, this breakdown is clearly visible, with correlation becoming more unstable and less predictive of Bitcoin’s direction.

At the same time, Bitcoin is not behaving like a traditional safe haven either.

Gold, which typically benefits during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, has not shown a consistent relationship with Bitcoin. The correlation between the two remains unstable, frequently shifting between positive and negative territory.

This reinforces an important point.

Bitcoin is not simply replacing gold, nor is it behaving like equities. It is beginning to trade independently.

As shown below, the lack of a stable correlation with gold highlights that Bitcoin is still in a transition phase, carving out its own role within the global financial system.

This is a critical shift.

Under the old framework, Bitcoin was viewed as a high risk extension of equities. Under this emerging framework, it is becoming an asset that does not cleanly fit into traditional categories.

For investors, this changes how Bitcoin should be viewed.

If you are only watching equities or gold to understand Bitcoin, you are likely to misread the market. The relationships that once defined its behaviour are no longer as reliable.

The key takeaway is simple.

Do not just track price, track relationships. Correlation tells you how the market views an asset. And when those correlations begin to shift, it is often the earliest signal that a larger structural change is underway.

Right now, Bitcoin is in that transition.

And understanding that shift is what separates reacting to the market from positioning ahead of it.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: February 2026

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 11:12:03 +1100

How Strong Is Your Bitcoin Conviction?

February was a true test of conviction for Bitcoin investors, forcing participants to revisit the reasons they entered the market in the first place. As historic records were set to the downside and bears tightened their grip, weak positioning was exposed and long term conviction was challenged.

A Test of Conviction and Psychology:

When it comes to Bitcoin, buying it is easy during a bull market for most retail investors, following the headlines, the hype and especially the fear of missing out (FOMO) in an uptrend. The bear market reveals those who really lack conviction and confidence in their Bitcoin purchases and will weed those out.

For the first time since 2018 and only the third time in its history Bitcoin has closed five consecutive red months. Not only this but it has also seen a historic day occur. Moving $10,000 USD from open to close in a single day. But unfortunately for the bulls these are not records that were desired.

Now down 50% from all time highs seen just five months ago, sentiment is at an all time low with single digit fear and greed readings. But Bitcoin remains above $60k, those who have conviction remain strong in the market and are taking advantage of these discounted prices.

Before we get into what smart money and those with conviction are doing, let’s take a look at what happened the last time we saw this many consecutive red months.The previous occurrences came in 2011 and 2018, both of which ultimately printed six red months and coincided with the latter stages of bear market bottoms before new expansion phases began. That isn’t to say that Bitcoin can’t extend its streak of red to longer than five or six months but it is yet another sign that we are closer to the cycle bottom than a top.

These are the times where smart money is doubling down on their conviction, it doesn’t matter if you have been in the market for multiple cycles or if you bought the top of the last one. Conviction is conviction, discounts are discounts. Those who did buy the top are using these periods to accumulate more Bitcoin and reduce their time spent underwater significantly, a deeper dive of how this can be achieved can be found in our recent Morning note here.

Conviction is not about perfect entries. It is about recognising value when it is in front of you and having the discipline to act. Greed exists during bear markets, people who stay sidelined as they wait for lower prices risk missing out on the major discounts altogether. Windows in bear markets close sooner than most expect. Whilst the chance of a further drawdown does exist, those who get allocated at discounts will often be in a much better position than those who tried picking the bottom and ended up missing it.

History shows that bottoms are processes, not single candles. They are built through exhaustion, disbelief and time. Five red months, a 50% drawdown, and a $10,000 single day move are not comfortable conditions. They are the conditions that test patience and expose weak positioning.

The market does not reward comfort. It rewards preparation.

This phase is separating reactive capital from strategic capital. The former waits for headlines to improve. The latter builds exposure when sentiment is washed out and risk to reward begins to skew favourably.

No one rings a bell at the bottom. But when fear reaches extremes, volatility expands, and multi month weakness stretches conviction to its limits, historically that has marked the late stages of corrective phases rather than the beginning of new euphoric cycles.

The question each participant must answer is simple. Are you reacting to price, or positioning for the next expansion?

Because when momentum returns, it rarely offers the same discounts twice.

The Rise of AI and Its Impact on Bitcoin:

A hot topic of February was the rise of AI and the threat it poses to many things we know and love within the world. Tech stocks faced the brunt of the concern and bearish price action as a result of something as simple as a post on X.

Claude AI introduced their Claude Code Security through an X post. The immediate aftermath saw $15 billion wiped from leading cybersecurity stocks including Palo Alto, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare. Beyond cybersecurity, IBM experienced a 13% single day drop, its worst day since 2000, after Anthropic launched its programming AI tool.

The market reaction was swift and ruthless. Narrative risk alone was enough to reprice entire sectors.

So the question naturally arises. Is Bitcoin next?

The harsh truth is that AI will continue to improve. It will create new products that replace existing ones. It will threaten business models and displace jobs. That evolution is not speculative, it is inevitable.

So could AI create a new blockchain or coin and replace Bitcoin?

The simple answer is no.

Consider how many altcoins have been created over time with the explicit goal of improving Bitcoin. Faster throughput, better scalability, enhanced programmability, lower fees. Yet none have succeeded in replacing it. Almost all have trended toward zero against Bitcoin over time.

It would be no different if AI were involved. Whether a human instructs AI to build a superior blockchain, or autonomous systems collaborate to design their own digital currency, the challenge remains the same.

Bitcoin is not dominant because it has the most advanced code. It is dominant because it has the strongest network.

Nearly two decades of uptime. A globally distributed node network. The largest and most secure proof of work hash rate in existence. Deep liquidity across spot, futures and ETF markets. Integration into corporate treasuries and institutional portfolios.

AI can optimise software. It can simulate economic systems. It can produce technically elegant consensus mechanisms. But Bitcoin’s moat is not purely technological. It is social, economic and game theoretic.

The Lindy effect applies. The longer Bitcoin survives, the more likely it is to continue surviving. It has endured exchange collapses, mining bans, regulatory hostility and internal ideological splits. Each crisis has reinforced its resilience.

Replacing Bitcoin would not simply require better code. It would require convincing miners to redirect hash power, institutions to rotate balance sheets, ETFs to migrate capital, developers to abandon infrastructure, and millions of holders to exchange the hardest digital monetary asset ever created for something unproven.

That is not a product upgrade. That is a global coordination problem.

AI is more likely to enhance Bitcoin than replace it. It can improve security tooling, optimise mining efficiency, strengthen Lightning infrastructure and refine on chain analytics. In many ways, AI could accelerate Bitcoin’s maturity.

The more realistic short term impact is narrative competition. Capital follows attention. If AI continues to dominate headlines, speculative liquidity may rotate toward AI related equities and tokens.

But Bitcoin is not a software company. It is a monetary network.

Monetary networks are not replaced because something faster appears. They are replaced when trust breaks. And nearly twenty years in, Bitcoin’s trust layer remains intact.

AI will reshape industries. It will create disruption and volatility.

But replacing the most secure and decentralised digital monetary network ever created?

That bar is far higher than writing better code.

February Extends the Red Streak. Can March Reverse Momentum?

We mentioned that Bitcoin has now printed a fifth consecutive red month, with February closing down 15% and price falling to levels not seen since October 2024. Conviction continues to be tested as bears maintain short term control of the market.

Momentum is clearly to the downside on the higher timeframes. Lower highs have formed, rallies are being sold into, and sentiment remains fragile. But as history shows, it is precisely these environments that tend to offer asymmetric opportunities. We now turn to March.

Historically, March has not been the most consistent month for Bitcoin. Only six of the last fifteen March closes have been green. However, those green months have been significant, strong enough to skew the average March return to +10.9%. In other words, whilst the probability of a green month is not dominant, when March does perform, it performs meaningfully.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ni2ffVNe/

The chart above highlights the position Bitcoin currently finds itself in. Price is trading within a clear bearish structure on the daily timeframe, with resistance overhead and momentum yet to convincingly shift. The market is cautious, liquidity remains thin on rallies, and volatility expansion suggests another decisive move is building.

Yet bearish structure and opportunity are not mutually exclusive.

We have covered extensively in our Stormrake Morning Notes why accumulation during periods of compression and fear can provide a structural edge. Whether you are a new entrant looking to build exposure, an investor who bought higher and is currently underwater, or a multi cycle participant with deep conviction, these environments reward strategic positioning rather than emotional reaction.

If you are underwater, periods like this can materially reduce your breakeven level through disciplined accumulation. For new entrants, these are prices that were considered unattainable just months ago. And for those with experience, there is little need for persuasion. You understand that volatility is the entry fee for asymmetric upside.

It is also worth remembering that Bitcoin has never printed more than six consecutive red months in its history. On previous occasions where streaks of this magnitude ended, they coincided with the latter stages of bear markets and preceded significant upside expansions.

This is not a definitive bottom call. Nor are we suggesting that if March closes green the path lower is permanently closed. Markets do not move in straight lines, and macro headwinds still exist.

What we are saying is this. Five red months. A 50% drawdown. A $10,000 single day move. Single digit fear readings.

Historically, environments like this have been far closer to long term opportunity than late cycle risk. Volatility remains elevated. Uncertainty remains high. But from a cycle perspective, we are statistically and structurally much closer to the bottom than the top.

In the News

US Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Tariffs

Last month we highlighted the pending US Supreme Court decision regarding President Trump’s tariff authority, with prediction markets assigning roughly a 35% probability that the ruling would favour the administration. The decision has now landed, with the court determining the tariffs were unlawful.

However, policy uncertainty did not end there. In response, Trump announced a fresh round of global tariffs at 10%, before subsequently increasing them to 15%. Whilst the legal question may have been addressed, trade tensions remain unresolved. Markets dislike uncertainty more than they dislike bad news, and the back and forth continues to inject volatility into risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Geopolitical Tensions Return to the Middle East

Risk off sentiment returned as tensions escalated once again in the Middle East, involving Iran, the US and Israel. The United States has deployed one of its largest naval presences in the region in decades, whilst Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered immediate market reactions. Bitcoin sold off sharply during the escalation whilst PAXG has begun to rally again.

Jane Street Under Scrutiny

Jane Street, a dominant quantitative trading firm and key liquidity provider across both traditional and crypto markets, is reportedly facing potential claims exceeding $1 billion linked to its alleged role in the 2022 Terra Luna collapse. In addition, market participants have pointed to repeated sharp Bitcoin moves around 10am EST, aligning with the US equity open, raising questions around cross asset liquidity dynamics.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in February 2026:

Bitcoin fell 15% in February
Ethereum declined 20% during the month
Stablecoin dominance increased by 17% in February
PAXG stood out, rising 10% whilst the majority of the market closed red
The total crypto market capitalisation fell by 13%

Video of the month

Bitcoin Is Going to $35,000. Here's Why I'm Buying. - Money Markets & Mayhem and Bisher Khudeira

Education: Real World Bitcoin Adoption

One of the most common questions surrounding Bitcoin is simple. How do you actually use it? It is also often framed as criticism by those unfamiliar with the ecosystem. You cannot spend your Bitcoin, so what is the point?

We have consistently reinforced Bitcoin’s core value proposition as a monetary asset. It is decentralised, scarce, censorship resistant and transferable without reliance on a central authority. That foundation alone resolved one of the biggest problems in finance, sending value peer to peer across the globe without needing permission from a bank or intermediary.

There is no debate around the success of that use case.

However, adoption does not stop at holding. Utility evolves.

The real innovation has come from the development of Layer 2 infrastructure, particularly the Lightning Network, built on top of Bitcoin to improve speed and scalability. Lightning enables near instant transactions with extremely low fees, making everyday payments practical in a way that base layer transactions were never designed to handle at scale.

Lightning does not replace Bitcoin. It enhances it.

By moving transactions off chain while still ultimately settling in Bitcoin, Lightning dramatically increases throughput. Payments that once required waiting for confirmations can now be completed in seconds. Fees are often fractions of a cent, opening the door for microtransactions and real world retail usage.

And the growth is measurable.

As shown in the chart above, estimated monthly Lightning volume has expanded from just $12.1 million in August 2021 to $78.2 million in August 2023. By November 2024 that figure had surged to $286.5 million, and projections for November 2025 stand at $1.17 billion.

That is not theoretical adoption. That is exponential growth.

But volume alone does not tell the full story.

The Lightning Network has evolved from an experimental scaling solution into a fully developed industry layer built on top of Bitcoin.

The growth of Lightning is not just visible in transaction volume. It is visible in real world usage.

As explored in our piece “One Steak Sandwich and a Side Of Bitcoin Please”, Bitcoin is no longer confined to online transfers or speculative holding. It is being used in physical environments, from restaurants to retail counters, where customers can pay instantly via Lightning by scanning a QR code.

What once required a card terminal, a bank intermediary and processing fees can now be settled peer to peer in seconds.

Major exchanges have integrated Lightning deposits and withdrawals. Wallet providers have refined user experience across both custodial and non custodial options. Payment processors allow merchants to accept Bitcoin and instantly convert to local currency if they wish, removing volatility risk whilst benefiting from lower fees and zero chargebacks.

For everyday users, the process is simple. A Lightning enabled wallet, a small Bitcoin balance, and the ability to transact globally without restriction.

In emerging markets, Lightning is being used for remittances and small business transactions. In developed economies, it is increasingly used for retail payments, online services and tipping. The use cases are expanding quietly rather than loudly, which is often how real adoption takes hold.

The idea that Bitcoin cannot be spent is outdated.

The infrastructure exists. The usage is growing. The real world examples are no longer theoretical.

Bitcoin remains digital hard money at its base layer. But through Lightning, it is also becoming a practical and scalable payment network that can function in day to day life.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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From Global War Tensions to Green in just 12 Days

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 16:20:07 +1000

What a wild couple of months we’ve had since our last article. There’s been no shortage of excitement in the market – to say the least! We’ve witnessed Bitcoin not only just break All Time High’s once again since the retail panic of April (well done Tarriff scalpers!) but we’ve now just speedrun a potentially devastating and prolonged conflict in the Middle-east. From Israel’s initial attack into Iranian territory, all coming to a conclusive yet miraculous ceasefire in a mere 12 days, now being coined the “12-Day-War” by the White House. Trump truly has quickly become one of the most influential and strongly mandated POTUS’ of our time. Not only is he leading America’s economic boom as we’re seeing asset prices resurge back to All Time High’s across the board despite some initial policy trepidation surrounding trade policy, but now we’ve got Donald “Daddy” Trump actually making serious inroads for the ever elusive notion for peace in the Middle-east, even if it comes at the price of “Kinetic Diplomacy” in the form of highly sophisticated Bunker Buster missiles and advanced stealth bomber capability on a strategically planned Sunday evening at midnight. Since then, we’ve seen nothing but green on the charts for Risk-on assets, signaling that despite the macro-uncertainty of the first half of 2025, we’re good to move forward now and finish off H2 with conviction and strength. Let’s take a look at how Bitcoin has not only survived but thrived throughout the last few months.

Bitcoin has kept maintaining momentum to the upside for the most part over the last few weeks since bouncing off our predicted major support zone around the mid-$70K range. Actually, as mentioned earlier, we saw Bitcoin briefly push to new All Time High’s once again for a few days, reaching a peak of exactly $112K before coming into the current sideways price action we’re currently in. Another stark reminder that it wasn’t even a month prior to the new highs that people were panicked about Trump’s Tarriff policies and many retail traders were in a perplexed state of “deep fear” as seen on the Fear & Greed Index. Not us however; we remained steadfast in our long positions and doubled down on telling our clients how this was a prime-time for loading up the truck and adding to position sizes. Those that took action have done exceptionally well in a short amount of time, as we knew back then that those exceptional market opportunities come seldom and remain few and far between. So why the sideways price action for the last two months then since the huge rally in May? To that, all I have to say is one word you’ve heard me repeat time and time again this cycle; Accumulation. This is nothing to fear, rather – again providing excellent opportunity for market participants to add to their positions, especially those that missed out on when we called bottoms back in April. Looking at the Price Action on the charts, we can in fact see we’re currently in the midst of another Bull Flag pattern and have been since late-May when we pushed the $112K high.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/CGhOb49p/

Not only is this a Bull Flag, but keen eyes and avid readers of my previous articles will notice a similar pattern of price progression; that being the ever-subtle yet exciting Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Two of these bullish patterns together provides excellent confluence and further signals the notion that the market lows are well and truly in, now with much more upside to come sooner rather than later. To further solidify the Inverse Head and Shoulders, we can see that it’s following a textbook “smaller right-shoulder” and has held steadfast when testing the strong support found at $98K.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/FRC6U6UI/

The strong bounce off this level happened exactly in the midst of Operation Hammer and the near-immediate ceasefire that followed shortly after. Just like I’ve outlined many times before, don’t follow the news narratives, rather look at the charts – they’ll tell you all you need to know. As a result we’ve seen a nice modest gain since then across risk-on markets, although we’re still within the broader accumulation range, therefore the opportunity for those still on the sidelines currently waiting to allocate further capital is still clear and present, however I doubt it will remain this lucrative for much longer now as the cascade of bullish price action and strong fundamentals narratives are ramping up to create the beginnings of a euphoric cacophony. Whilst Bitcoin remains on its historic tear despite all the macro headwinds, let’s take a look over and see how the altcoin market is doing.

The rest of the crypto market remains undervalued for the most part, yet all the top 10 majors appear to be in their own versions of an accumulation structure. Ultimately, market lows seem to be in across the board since the Trump Tarriff dip which was absolutely necessary and needs to be the case for the stronger Alt-assets to remain bullish for the remainder of the cycle, although we haven’t seen them break out of their aforementioned accumulation zones either quite yet. This means even for the major alts, the opportunity to buy low before moving higher also remains clear and present just like Bitcoin. Ethereum as the number #2 asset is still undervalued, yet holding its accumulation zone of support that we’ve outlined in previous articles. This is slowly but surely stacking the odds in its favor that there’s a lot more upside than downside risk from here on out. Holders almost always have their patience rewarded for holding in periods of “boring” accumulation periods such as this - just remember it’s not about timeframes; it’s about levels and trend. Trend is holding for ETH, so being bearish on it here in nominal terms is a massive counter-trade and usually these kinds of market participants that spread fear and “pile-on” an underperforming asset right at its market lows. Just like the Fear and Greed Index that we outlined in previous articles, if you counter-trade the sentiment of the masses, the odds are already in your favor. ETH/BTC is still above our projected must hold level, likely to keep increasing in the coming months. I believe this will align with when Bitcoin surges past the $112K high with momentous rise and slingshots to the next $150K target.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cXFjh6Ni/

Historically, these big moves later in the cycle become the perfect catalyst for retail trades who missed the earlier cycle gains in Bitcoin, who’re looking for the “next-best-thing”, and just has its done the previous two cycles, I believe ETH will still retain the #2 podium place for a while longer and will fit that criteria as a moderately safe play for many newer investors looking for an excellent deal. In contrast, let’s take a look and see how XRP is performing relative to its counterparts as despite the macro-headwinds of late, it’s maintained the top 3 podium position (excluding Tether) and appears to be well poised for an exceptional late-cycle rally.

XRP pulled back with the rest of the market exactly where we predicted, in-line with BTC’s pullback at $109K back in December. Just as XRP pumped with Bitcoin in December, and has pulled back in price during bitcoin accumulation correction since then. I suspect it’s waiting for Bitcoin’s moment to resurge with conviction well past those December highs in order to keep up the pace once again. XRP during this accumulation period has held our previously predicted major support level perfectly at the lows of $1.60 since April and has bounced off with conviction and momentum since. Despite the recent 12-Day-War turbulence of late, we can see XRP is still making Higher Lows, again - retesting the top end of our support channel at $1.90 and continuing to push to higher local prices. Although we haven’t made a confirmed local Higher-High just yet, we can see that XRP over the last few months has solidified its price support and appears to be forming one of our favorite patterns this cycle; the Bull Flag.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/COZi7pG3/

So long as XRP holds the green zone of support above the 2021 highs, then I see XRP only gaining momentum from here once Bitcoin has given the green light to the Altcoin market that the final “melt-up” phase of the Bull run is ready for liftoff.

As for the discussion on Interest Rates and the narratives surrounding monetary policy coming out of the FED, as of July 1st, Chairman of the Federal Reserve – Jerome Powell was clear that Interest Rates remain in a sort of proverbial “holding-pattern” shifting the reasoning for this towards Trump’s ever evolving Tariff policies. It appears the FED want more certainty surrounding economic data before pulling their one-and-only lever to maintain fiscal stability; the lowering of interest rates. Trump being the everenigma tic and comedic leader of the free world, naturally sends a handwritten letter to Powell stating “You are as usual ‘too late’. You have cost the USA a FORTUNE and continue to do so – you should lower the rate by a lot!” making sure there are no misconceptions on his stance towards relatively hawkish monetary policy under his Presidency. The FED being a self-governed body however don’t answer to the whichever POTUS is currently in power, therefore we’ll need to see if there’s any further headbu􀆫ng from here between the two as Trump’s economic roadmap for America’s golden-age does actually hinge on easily accessible capital and free-flowing debt to keep the Fiat-driven equity markets propped up and drunk on cheap money for consistent long-term growth in post-GFC world.

What we’ve witnessed over the last few months is nothing short of a masterclass in how markets respond not just to macro events, but to the sentiment and positioning that follows them. From the chaos of global conflict to the calming green of market recovery, we’ve seen how quickly narratives can shift, however the charts always tell the truth. Bitcoin continues to lead with strength, supported by classic bullish patterns, while Ethereum and the altcoin majors remain quietly coiling in powerful accumulation zones. The 12-Day-War, Trump's kinetic diplomacy, and the ongoing tension between fiscal and monetary powers have only fueled the urgency for smart capital allocation in this cycle. As we move deeper into H2 2025, the window of opportunity narrows. The charts are aligned, sentiment is cautious, and the setups are clear; those who remain focused and positioned now may well be the ones leading the charge when the next leg of the bull run ignites. The message remains the same - stay informed, stay patient, and stay in position.

Written by James Ryan

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$112K: Bitcoin Finally Prints a New All-Time High

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 13:03:14 +1000

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For the first time since May 22nd, Bitcoin has printed a new all-time high at $112K, just $20 above the previous peak. The rest of the crypto market is reaping the spoils of this long-awaited breakout, with bulls firmly back in control and Ethereum outperforming as it leads the broader rally.

Markets have rallied off the back of the FOMC meeting minutes released overnight, which revealed that most Fed officials expect rate cuts ahead, though they remain divided on the timing and magnitude. A couple of members see the first cut coming as soon as the next meeting later this month, while others think no cuts would be appropriate this year. Analysts and investors are still expecting to see two cuts this year with more to come in 2026. Traditional markets stayed green, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq pushing higher, and a massive milestone was hit: NVIDIA became the first company to reach a $4 trillion USD market cap.

The FOMC minutes have overshadowed further tariff announcements by Trump, who has imposed one-way tariffs on another seven countries, bringing the total to 21 nations facing these tariffs from August 1st. Brazil was a surprise inclusion, slapped with a 50% tariff, despite the US running a trade surplus with them — exporting more goods than it imports, unlike the other targeted countries.

There are no more excuses for Bitcoin. This is the breakout the market has been waiting for, with bulls now controlling momentum and structure across all timeframes. Rate cuts are just around the corner, global money supply keeps rising, and the market has moved on from tariff fears, no longer phased by trade spats. This strong start to H2 is exactly what Bitcoin needed to keep 2025’s lofty expectations alive.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($40.59)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/nLDuh6Hy/

HYPE gained nearly 5% yesterday on the back of Bitcoin’s breakout. The bulls defended the 21EMA support and have pushed it back into the stubborn resistance zone that’s capped price for the past month. If Bitcoin keeps grinding higher, we can expect HYPE to push through this zone and make a run for new all-time highs.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/UYJtqagm/

Yesterday we highlighted Bitcoin’s potential breakout from consolidation — and it delivered. We woke up to fresh all-time highs and a clear bullish continuation. Nothing on this chart suggests any reason to be bearish. The previous ceiling has been broken and targets now sit higher — and then some.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 9 Jul: + 80.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Markets on Hold as Tariff Twists Keep Investors Guessing

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 13:21:56 +1000

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Another quiet day across the markets as investors remain in a holding pattern, waiting for further sporadic tariff announcements from the President. With no set schedule and unpredictable timing, these updates keep investors on their toes, leaving markets in wait-and-see mode as uncertainty lingers.

There will be no delays or revisions to the tariffs imposed on 14 countries earlier this week, Trump has confirmed they will go live on August 1st.

Overnight, a fresh 50% tariff on copper imports was announced, which saw Copper rally nearly 20% on the announcement, alongside threats of further sector-specific tariffs. Notably, Trump threatened tariffs of upto 200% on pharmaceuticals, although this would take 12 to 18 months to implement to give the industry time to adjust. Over the next three weeks, we can expect more of these unexpected updates, which should bring clarity on which countries face additional tariffs come August 1st.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) Dives Deeper into Crypto

Trump continues to push into crypto through his Media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT). A few months ago, they announced plans to acquire $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, and now they’ve filed for a “Crypto Blue Chip ETF” with the SEC. The proposed ETF would hold 70% Bitcoin, 15% Ethereum, 8% Solana, 5% Cronos, and 2% Ripple.

Jack Dorsey Unveils Decentralised Messaging App ‘Bitchat’

In other crypto news, former X (Twitter) CEO Jack Dorsey has just launched a new decentralised messaging app called ‘Bitchat’. It offers end-to-end encrypted messaging and, as Dorsey describes, “provides ephemeral, encrypted communication without relying on internet infrastructure, making it resilient to network outages and censorship.” A standout feature Bitcoin users are testing is the ability to send Bitcoin without internet access via Bluetooth or mesh networks. The app stores transactions until it reaches an online device that can broadcast to the Bitcoin network, making it ideal for blackouts, emergencies, or off-grid use. So yes, you can transact offline, but the transaction still needs an internet-connected node to complete.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($39.10)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/8WtYLYUf/

HYPE remains rangebound, trading between its tight support and resistance. Yesterday saw HYPE nearly drop 5% intraday before reversing during the US session and closing green. Bulls continue to defend the 21EMA and support, while bears keep rejecting consistent closes in the resistance zone.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/UYJtqagm/

Bitcoin looks to be approaching the end of its consolidation phase. Over the past week, we’ve seen constant momentum shifts, with neither bulls nor bears taking control. The structure remains neutral, with higher lows and lower highs forming a symmetrical triangle. Now, BTC is potentially breaking out of this pattern, but the real test is the key resistance level at $109.5K, which has repeatedly capped further gains.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 8 Jul: + 8.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Trump’s Tariffs Back in the Spotlight

Tue, 08 Jul 2025 12:36:48 +1000

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His/Her Excellency,

It is a great honour for me to send you this Morning Note…

This is how Trump has begun his letters to individual world leaders, informing them of the new tariffs they will face from August 1st. So far, Trump has announced tariffs on 14 countries, ranging from 25% to 40%. Some of the affected countries include Japan, South Korea, Serbia, Thailand, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa and Indonesia. It appears this is only the beginning, as the extension of the pause from July 9th to August 1st was intended to create new deals. However, these new tariffs are not negotiated agreements. They are unilateral measures Trump has imposed in an attempt to address trade deficits and what he calls ‘unfair trade practices’. He has also threatened that any retaliatory tariffs on the United States will be matched, with the announced tariffs added on top.

The first trading day for traditional markets since the Independence Day long weekend saw risk-on sentiment fade, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both losing 0.79%, marking the S&P’s worst day in nearly three weeks. Japanese automakers bore the brunt of the selloff, with Toyota and Honda down 4.1% and 3.8% respectively.

This spilled over into the crypto space, with Bitcoin falling nearly 1% as it battles to hold above $108K. Altcoins also lost ground, but the total altcoin market cap dropped slightly less than Bitcoin on the day, slipping 0.80% compared to Bitcoin’s 0.88% pullback in price. Sentiment remains firmly in the greed territory, sitting between a reading of 65 and 73.

Although risk-on markets still have bullish momentum overall, they are likely to stay reactive to further tariff announcements right up to the 1st of August and could remain volatile even afterwards.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.85)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/CMNgogrE/

Hyperliquid fell 3% yesterday and remains stuck within an extremely tight range. Neither bulls nor bears have managed to push it decisively through support or resistance. The bulls do hold the advantage in terms of momentum and structure, so if you had to pick a side, the bulls should come out on top.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bfnaHnta/

Bitcoin once again failed to reclaim $109.5K yesterday. The rejection from this level has put fresh pressure on the bulls, with momentum turning bearish and BTC now close to trading below all its key moving averages once again. The structure remains relatively neutral for now, with lower highs but also higher lows. For the bears to take control, BTC would need to break down towards $107.2K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 6 Jul: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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A Quiet Weekend for Bitcoin as the Whale Mystery Remains

Mon, 07 Jul 2025 13:15:58 +1000

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After the bearish day that was Friday, Bitcoin has enjoyed a quiet yet bullish weekend, almost reclaiming the entire pullback it suffered on Friday. With no major news or announcements moving Bitcoin over the weekend, the crypto space remained fixated on the mega whale transfers that took place on Friday night and Saturday morning. Arkham Intelligence confirmed that the movement of 80,009 BTC was for wallet upgrades rather than liquidations. The funds were moved from a legacy address to a more modern one, boosting transaction efficiency and reducing network fees. Whilst the mystery still lingers over who was behind the transfer, some raised suspicions of a potential quantum hack. However, many believe it was Roger Ver, the early Bitcoin investor who was jailed in Spain back in 2011 and was recently released this June. It all remains speculation though, and we may never know for certain who moved it.

Bitcoin has also set another record, posting its highest weekly close in history at $109.2k.

Meanwhile, it was reported that ‘The Open Network’ (TON) had partnered with the UAE to offer a golden visa, whereby investors could stake $100,000 worth of TON tokens for three years plus an additional $35,000 fee. Conventional UAE golden visa routes usually require a minimum $540,000 investment in illiquid assets, making the TON route seem far cheaper. This news sent TON rallying 13% in an hour before many began to question it. Binance founder ‘CZ’ queried the legitimacy of the announcement, saying, ‘It would be awesome if true,’ but noted there was nothing on any official government website to back it up — adding that if it were real, he would ‘definitely try to get it on BNB too’. A recent press release confirmed by UAE regulators has since denied the claims that golden visas were being offered to crypto investors. TON has since fallen 8% from its high following the denial, but this does open the door to the potential idea of golden visas linked to crypto investments, which could incentivise investors to relocate and help countries become crypto hubs.

Over on X, ‘TACO’ is trending — for those unfamiliar, it stands for ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’. It’s trending because the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs was initially due to expire on 9 July. Trump said last week that an extension was unlikely, but the July 9 deadline has now been pushed back to 1 August. Trump claims new trade deals have been made and that tariffs on other countries will increase by August 1.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($39.59)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/zKsl91m7/

HYPE mirrored Bitcoin’s move over the weekend with two green candles, bouncing from the support levels identified on the chart above. The 21EMA and the CPR support zone continue to hold HYPE up, strengthening the bullish case. However, it now faces the same resistance zone that has capped it for nearly a month.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/pjmMxY9K/

Yesterday evening saw Bitcoin break out of its tight consolidation range, flipping momentum back to the bulls with a bullish cross of the 21 and 55EMA (yellow and green lines). It managed to retest the key resistance level at $109.5k but was rejected immediately. BTC is now trading back at the 21EMA, which should continue to act as support. We can expect another attempt at this key resistance, which will be crucial to break through if Bitcoin is to push higher.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 6 Jul: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Satoshi-Era Bitcoin Wallets Spring Back to Life

Mon, 07 Jul 2025 09:53:19 +1000

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Bitcoin has seen a slight pullback following the unexpected movement of coins from eight specific wallets. Bitcoin is moved constantly, so what makes these eight wallets so significant? The last time any of them showed any activity was 14 years ago during the so-called ‘Satoshi Era’ back in 2011.

Source:https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1941167512491864554

Combined, these wallets shifted a total of $8.4 billion worth of Bitcoin. Importantly, the coins have not been sold or moved to an exchange, they have simply been transferred to other wallets. Naturally, this has triggered a frenzy of speculation, with some wondering if it could be Satoshi Nakamoto himself, Ross Ulbricht (creator of Silk Road), or early Bitcoin investor Roger Ver.

The timing has not helped the price action. Bitcoin was already seeing a mild pullback and this event saw the Fear and Greed Index drop eight points to 67, slipping from the edge of ‘Extreme Greed’. Altcoins felt the chill too, with the total altcoin market losing 2.35% over the last 24 hours.

This pullback is not especially concerning as the broader bullish momentum remains intact. However, with the 4th of July holiday and a long weekend in the US, anything is possible. Historically, this holiday period and July in general tend to bring lower volatility for the S&P 500. In fact, July is typically its least volatile month for the index. Bitcoin does not follow the index in any consistent way though, showing mixed volatility in past years around this holiday, so the S&P’s direction will likely have little impact on BTC in the near term.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($38.80)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/zr8pedgL/

HYPE has once again failed to push deeper into its resistance zone, falling short of $41 for the second time in four days. This rejection has sent HYPE back below resistance after a 3% loss yesterday. Despite this, the overall momentum and structure remain bullish.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/yujDduqT/

Bitcoin is back below $108k after failing to hold above the key $109.5k level. This failed attempt has seen BTC drop 1.5% in the last 24 hours, flipping short-term momentum back to the bears with a bearish cross of the 21 and 55 EMAs. BTC has tested both the 200 moving averages as support around $107.5k. The overall structure still favours the bulls as long as this pullback holds above the recent low at $105.1k. If so, the outlook should continue to favour a push higher.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 4 Jul: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Finally Joins the Party

Fri, 04 Jul 2025 12:43:52 +1000

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Traditional indices have been enjoying the risk-on sentiment for nearly a fortnight, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dominating as they trade at fresh all-time highs in price discovery territory. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been lagging behind but that is starting to change.

Bitcoin has finally joined the party, up nearly 5% in two days and hovering just below its all-time high. It is on the brink of confirming its bullish structure too. It fell just short of breaking the recent higher low in the broader market structure. The next push higher will likely see Bitcoin break this level, confirm the bullish trend and move on to test its all-time high, which sits less than 2.5% away from current prices.

Market sentiment continues to climb alongside price, as it often does. These two tend to move together. The Fear & Greed Index now sits at 73, just two points away from the extreme greed zone of 75 and above. The total altcoin market cap has also risen over the past few days while Bitcoin dominance has edged slightly lower. Both are still within their broader trends though, with altcoins still waiting for a decisive breakout and Bitcoin dominance not yet close to breaking down.

On the policy front, the US House has just designated 14–18 July as Crypto Week to focus on key digital asset legislation, another sign that crypto is gaining more mainstream political traction.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($40.38)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/jyFjSqXJ/

HYPE posted another green day, up just 1% but pushing deeper into its resistance range. The structure and momentum remain very bullish. If HYPE can clear this range, new all-time highs should follow.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/VeIimbxU/

Bitcoin is currently fighting to hold above the key level of $109.5K, using the 21 EMA as support to stop any attempts by bears to drag it back under. With short-term momentum and structure still favouring the bulls, we should expect BTC to retest its all-time highs within the next week or so.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 3 Jul: $ + 377.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.