Stormrake - Insights #Morning Note

Q3 2026 Outlook Breakdown – Part 3: The Great Rotation

Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:16:07 +1000

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We're back with our Q3 Outlook breakdown series, this time looking at Bitcoin against the backdrop of traditional markets.

So far in this series, we’ve looked inward: Bitcoin’s own drawdown history, its own chart structure, its own sentiment cycle. Today we widen the lens and look at Bitcoin relative to something else entirely, US equities.

The Most Expensive Stock Market in a Generation

The Shiller CAPE ratio, a measure of US equity valuations based on ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings, is currently sitting above 41. That level has only been seen once before in over 140 years of market history, at the December 1999 dot-com peak, when the ratio reached 44.19 shortly before the index lost roughly half its value over the following two and a half years. The long-run average for this measure sits around 17.3.

Put simply, US equities are trading at their richest valuation in a generation, second only to the single most infamous bubble in modern financial history.

Bitcoin, Meanwhile, Sits Deep Below Its High

Against that backdrop, Bitcoin is currently trading around 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,272, and has printed a confirmed cycle low of $57,800.

That’s an unusual divergence. Historically, when equity markets are this expensive and this late-cycle, Bitcoin has tended to be more correlated to broader risk sentiment than decoupled from it. Right now we have one asset class near the most stretched valuations it has ever recorded, and another sitting in the deepest part of its own drawdown history. That gap is the setup.

Why This Gap Tends to Close

Extreme valuation gaps between asset classes don’t last indefinitely. Capital is not infinite, and when one part of the market becomes this expensive relative to its own history, the marginal dollar of new capital tends to look elsewhere for a home. Historically, some of that capital has found its way into Bitcoin during precisely these kinds of dislocations, particularly once equity valuations start to correct.

We’re not suggesting equities are about to collapse on a specific timeline, or that Bitcoin will automatically benefit the moment they do. What we are pointing out is that a market this expensive, sitting alongside an asset this depressed, has historically been the kind of setup that precedes a rotation of capital rather than a continuation of the status quo.

There’s also a timing pattern worth flagging. In both of the last two major cycles, Bitcoin didn’t turn the same week equities peaked. It lagged behind the equity reference point by a few months before properly igniting into its next major leg. That lag has shown up consistently enough across cycles that we think it’s worth watching closely for this one too, and we break down exactly where we believe we currently sit on that lag in the full report.

What Would Change This View

If US equity valuations continue climbing without correcting, and Bitcoin fails to attract any of the capital rotation this setup would typically suggest, that would be a reason to reassess this thesis. Valuation extremes can persist for longer than feels rational, and a wide gap on its own is not a trigger, only a condition that has historically preceded a shift.

Combined with the drawdown framework from Part 1, the Wyckoff mirror from Part 2, and the cycle low confirmation, this rotation setup adds a macro dimension to a thesis that has, so far, been built mostly from Bitcoin’s own price history.

For the full breakdown behind this framework, read our complete Q3 2026 Outlook report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,006)

PAXG continues to hover just on top of the support zone, with little price action to report as interest in precious metals remains low. The 21 exponential moving average remains the key hurdle and will be another test for PAXG soon as it approaches the key zone. One will have to give.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has had very productive price action. Despite increasing by less than 1%, and what feels like it hasn’t had a large move, it has quietly been grinding higher, flipping momentum and structure back to the bulls.

We can anticipate a retest of $66.8k, the overhead resistance key level…

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

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The Regulatory Blueprint Crypto Has Been Waiting For

Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:10:49 +1000

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Washington continues to forge ahead with the most significant piece of digital asset legislation in American history, even as mainstream headlines hyper fixate on minor procedural delays. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act secured an overwhelming landslide victory in the House of Representatives during July 2025, passing with a commanding 294 to 134 margin. Crucially, more than 70 Democrats crossed the aisle to support the framework, representing the most powerful bipartisan endorsement any digital asset bill has ever received in Congress. Following this historic milestone, the legislation successfully cleared the Senate Banking Committee with a 15 to 9 vote in May 2026. The bill is now officially positioned on the Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders, leaving it fully eligible for a comprehensive floor vote. While sensationalist commentators point to the missed July 4th target as a sign of stagnation, the structural reality demonstrates that this framework has advanced further through the legislative gauntlet than any cryptocurrency bill before it. It hasn’t crossed the final line yet, which represents a very different story than the one the stalled headlines are telling.

Why the Delay Signifies Strength

Misinterpreting a calendar slip as a fatal setback overlooks the historical resilience embedded within this legislative journey. Looked at differently, the reality is the opposite: this bill has survived every stage designed to kill weaker legislation. It cleared the House by one of the largest bipartisan margins in the chamber’s history and subsequently emerged from a Senate committee that has buried far less contentious financial bills for years. Achieving a placement under General Orders on Calendar Number 423 represents a formal, procedural milestone that standard digital asset proposals never reach.

The remaining points of contention do not represent a fundamental disagreement over whether the bill should exist, as both political parties and the broader digital asset industry broadly agree on the urgent necessity of a unified market structure. Instead, the final phase of negotiations centres on a narrow, highly resolvable set of administrative disputes. These issues include an ethics and disclosure provision, a question regarding federal preemption, and the formal process of filling vacant SEC and CFTC seats. Because these challenges are typically settled through routine political compromise rather than ideological warfare, the deep bipartisan capital already invested on both sides creates an incredibly strong incentive to finalise the text rather than allowing it to expire on the calendar.

Unlocking the Institutional Gateway

Establishing definitive market structure clarity remains the single most important component of institutional infrastructure that the digital asset economy has lacked. For years, the ambiguous distinction between whether a digital token functions as a security or a commodity, along with the subsequent jurisdictional warfare between the SEC and the CFTC, has paralysed major institutional allocators. This persistent regulatory opacity is frequently highlighted by global asset managers as the primary reason they have stayed on the sidelines. A House Financial Services Committee field hearing on 17 July 2026 was titled Building the Future of Finance: How CLARITY Act Unlocks Innovation. This represents an industry and a legislature both leaning into the idea that this bill is a genuine unlock rather than a mere compliance formality.

A successful floor vote will immediately equip US exchanges, institutional custodians, and corporate allocators with an immutable rulebook instead of an ongoing guessing game. Regulatory transformation at this structural level mirrors the deep capital unlock triggered by the spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in 2024. However, while those approvals permitted institutions to interact with a specific asset, comprehensive market clarity rewrites the structural plumbing of the entire ecosystem. This shifts the paradigm from capital merely being not explicitly forbidden to being fully authorised to innovate.

A Balanced Structural Caveat

Maintaining analytical objectivity requires a candid assessment of the brief legislative window remaining before the upcoming August recess. Prediction markets have aggressively adjusted the probability of 2026 passage, sliding from a high of approximately 82% in February down to a range of 42% - 50% by mid July. This drop reflects an incredibly compressed Senate calendar rather than a collapse in underlying political appetite. A temporary scheduling delay could easily push final enactment into the 2027 legislative session, which represents a real operational risk that long term allocators must monitor. However, because advanced legislation of this magnitude rarely resets to absolute zero, a calendar slip merely delays the final implementation rather than unwinding the massive structural progress achieved thus far.

The Implications for Bitcoin

The true risk confronting digital asset markets is not legislative failure, but rather the tendency for market participants to underprice structural momentum by focusing myopically on minor timeline adjustments. A framework that commands a 160 vote majority in the House and systematically clears a divided Senate committee has already conquered the most arduous phases of the legislative process.

For the long term trajectory of Bitcoin, this legal formalisation serves as an exceptional macroeconomic tailwind. By explicitly defining boundaries and protecting digital property rights at the federal level, the CLARITY Act solidifies the regulatory bedrock required for sovereign wealth systems, corporate treasuries, and massive pension complexes to directly integrate base layer digital assets into their core architectures. This profound institutional shift eliminates the structural friction that has historically capped upside volatility, paving the way for sustained capital appreciation as Bitcoin anchors itself at the centre of a newly regularised global financial system. The ultimate destination remains unchanged, and this regulatory framework ensures that the infrastructure supporting the next macro expansion cycle will be far more robust than any cycle observed in market history.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($3,998)

PAXG managed to hold above $3,900 over the weekend, as the major support level continues to hold. With today being a green day for the asset, and price beginning to compress - a foundation of support is beginning to form.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Since Friday Morning’s Note - BTC went on to maintain a higher low in the $62,000 pocket, and as of this morning managed to grind it’s way higher back above $65,000 again. Every attempt at further selling-off from the bears has failed, supporting the thesis that the bottom may very well be in. When everyone is targeting lower, and price begins to chop sideways and slowly grind higher; historically this is how the bottom has formed each and every single time for Bitcoin over it’s 17 year lifespan. Risk to reward continues to favour higher prices now as we eye $66,000 as a short-term level.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Who Controls Your Retirement Money?

Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:07:24 +1000

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At a superannuation roundtable in Sydney, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese outlined a controversial vision for Australia’s $4.5 trillion superannuation pool. Rather than treating this massive pool of liquidity purely as a retirement fund for individual citizens, the government argued that it should be mobilised as a national asset to support domestic economic ambitions and international diplomacy. Westpac chief executive Anthony Miller publicly pushed back against this narrative, warning the state against directing private retirement capital. This debate highlights a fundamental question for asset allocators globally: who ultimately commands the capital that is nominally yours?

What Albanese Actually Argued

Albanese noted that large pension investments provide valuable international leverage, characterising the deployment of hard money as an effective tool for soft power. The Prime Minister pointed to AustralianSuper’s recent commitment of up to $500 million to Indian infrastructure, announced alongside Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as evidence that pension capital already delivers diplomatic influence for the nation. Not everyone in the room shared that framing - AustralianSuper chairman Don Russell pushed back on the idea directly, describing the India investment as a portfolio diversification and returns decision first, with any soft-power effect a byproduct rather than the objective. Former Victorian premier Dan Andrews supported the institutional realignment Albanese was pushing for, urging the use of state finance vehicles to steer capital into specific sovereign capabilities such as housing, domestic energy transition, water security, and infrastructure.

This political desire to repurpose private funds arrives just as the institutional pension complex prepares for its first real demographic liquidity test. Westpac’s chief executive countered by arguing that the local corporate bond market has already expanded three times larger over the past year without political intervention, in his view, evidence that markets mature efficiently at their own pace without needing to be directed. More importantly, super funds have historically operated without treating liquidity as an active risk, because incoming contributions have consistently outpaced redemptions.

The Bigger Number Behind the Argument

That structural stability is shifting rapidly. UBS forecasts that by 2033, sector withdrawals via pensions and lump sums will exceed incoming contributions across the entire landscape. This demographic inversion is accelerated by the fact that approximately 1 million citizens are projected to retire before 2035. Major funds like Aware Super, which manages $230 billion in assets, are already actively de-risking portfolios and rotating into fixed income to prepare for these redemptions. APRA’s own stress testing modelled an extreme but plausible macro shock that could cut aggregate balances by as much as 25% - a scenario the regulator said the system withstood without breaking, though the exercise itself underlines how much less room for error the sector will have as the demographic shift accelerates.

The core vulnerability stems from the mandatory nature of centralised retirement complexes. Because participation is legally compulsory, individual savers have no authentic exit option and cannot opt out of these institutional structures. The battle over direction is fought between the state and financial intermediaries, whilst the individual owner’s voice is represented purely by proxy.

We The People

This structural dynamic underscores the case for holding unencumbered, sovereign property. While institutional systems are inherently vulnerable to policy changes, state mandates, and sudden demographic liquidity constraints, Bitcoin operates as an entirely independent alternative. As absolute sovereign property, Bitcoin provides individuals with complete discretionary control over their wealth. It requires no intermediate permission, carries zero counterparty liabilities, and cannot be directed by state ambition. In an era where centralised pools of capital are increasingly viewed as tools for national engineering, securing digital property that exists entirely outside the legacy political apparatus becomes paramount for long-term wealth preservation.

To cut through the noise of institutional capital capture and secure true financial sovereignty, contact your dedicated Stormrake broker today to discuss direct spot property ownership.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($3,981)

PAXG has continued deeper into the accumulation zone with a close 1.65% in the red today. As it continues to find it’s price floor, more sideways chop is to be expected as selling volume begins to slow down and a base is established over the coming days and weeks ahead.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin now sits on the local support level around $63,800 as the bulls and bears are in a tug of war for short-term direction now. If we get a decent bounce off this level, a continuation rally to $66,000 would be on the cards, however if bears continue to bring price down somewhat further, another re-test of the $62,000 local lows wouldn’t be out of the question either. Accumulation can look like choppiness on shorter timeframes, however the bigger picture is that it’s actually setting up the much needed foundation to begin the next multi-year macro expansion. This is a great sign, regardless of the direction price lands over the weekend.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Stablecoins Re-Anchor to the King of the Jungle

Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:02:24 +1000

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Tether is preparing to issue USDT natively on the Bitcoin blockchain for the first time in roughly nine years. This rollout runs through the RGB protocol version 0.11.1, which went live on the Bitcoin mainnet in July 2025, with commercial deployment spearheaded by UTEXO, a Bitcoin native execution and settlement layer. This represents a deeply integrated strategic alliance, underscored by Tether leading the 7.5 million dollar seed funding round for UTEXO in March 2026. The commercial launch is expected within weeks of the announcement, with several major exchanges and the native Tether Wallet lined up to support it from day one.

While this infrastructure milestone is underneath daily exchange traded fund flows and Federal Reserve policy countdowns, it represents a profound paradigm shift. This development quietly reshapes where global stablecoin liquidity resides for years to come.

The Evolution of Native Bitcoin Settlement

Looking back at the structural history of digital assets, USDT originally launched on Bitcoin in 2014 via the Omni Layer, long before activity migrated to alternative smart contract platforms to escape network congestion. The RGB protocol has been in meticulous development since 2016 to resolve these core scaling bottlenecks, transforming Bitcoin into an elite settlement network.

The core innovation driving this architecture is client side validation. Client side validation ensures that the vast majority of data remains securely off chain instead of broadcasting full transactional details to the entire global ledger. By anchoring final settlement proofs directly to Bitcoin’s unparalleled security model and utilising the Lightning Network, capital moves with absolute fluid efficiency. This architecture is already functional in live environments. For instance, a Lightning based USDT transfer of 1 million dollars successfully settled on Kraken in a blistering 0.43 seconds in January 2026, providing definitive proof of instant macro scale settlement.

Structural Technical Advantages

For institutional allocators and treasury managers, this protocol optimisation offers two distinct functional advantages:

Zero Asset Fragmentation: Transactions stay entirely within the native Bitcoin and Lightning ecosystem. Allocators are no longer forced to buy and hold volatile secondary utility tokens purely to cover network gas fees.
Sustained Sovereign Privacy: RGB natively inherits Bitcoin’s unspent transaction output architecture. The system generates a brand new, unique cryptographic address for every single capital transfer, completely eliminating address reuse, which remains a primary vector for counterparty privacy failures on alternative networks.

Macro Trends and Tether’s Hard Asset Thesis

This integration arrives precisely as the global stablecoin ecosystem reaches historic scale. Adjusted on-chain stablecoin transaction volume reached an eye watering 1.79 trillion dollars in June 2026, marking a robust 63% increase month over month and a 125% surge year over year. Institutional interest is accelerating rapidly, with legacy banking giants introducing native digital stablecoin services over recent months.

Tether’s technical roadmap clearly demonstrates a profound conviction in absolute scarcity. This RGB integration follows a separate native deployment via the Taproot Assets protocol in March 2026. Crucially, this aligns with Tether’s broader balance sheet allocation strategy, as the firm was identified as the single largest buyer of physical gold in 2025, securing more than 100 tonnes of bullion. The underlying theme is undeniable: the world’s largest liquidity provider is aggressively anchoring its product suite to the only two monetary assets entirely free from central bank discretion and policy debasement - physical gold and native Bitcoin.

How This Benefits Bitcoin’s Future?

Every previous attempt to bring meaningful stablecoin volume back to Bitcoin has faced hurdles, making this a serious infrastructure bet worth watching closely. However, transforming Bitcoin from a passive store of value into the definitive, secure settlement layer for global stablecoin velocity fundamentally alters its long term demand mechanics.

As substantial transactional volume migrates back to Bitcoin native rails, it dramatically expands the network’s real world utility. This direct capture of global payment plumbing reinforces the asset’s structural scarcity by locking up massive liquidity inside Lightning channels. Consequently, this deep institutional utility creates an incredibly resilient valuation floor, perfectly setting the stage to propel further exponential BTC price appreciation as the market transitions into its next major macro expansion cycle.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,053)

PAXG has traded in a range of 1.41% today, however price is largely sideways. Whilst it’s still holding above the $4,000 support channel, it appears there’s more accumulation that needs to be had first before a larger bounce is warranted. This is common in these correction/accumulation zones in precious metals, especially when they come after a significant rally that preceded it.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin, on the other hand is remaining incredibly resilient with price, achieving another local high overnight at $65,600. Even though price is back at ~ $64,800 this morning, and some more price chopping can be expected, it’s clear BTC continues to grind higher as the days as weeks go on now. It’s holding trend, and any attempt to create lower lows with quick sell-offs in recent weeks have failed. As long as BTC holds above $64,000, our $66,000 short-term target we mentioned a few weeks ago keeps getting closer and closer…

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Tables Turn: Warsh's First Bullish Impact

Tue, 21 Jul 2026 14:08:08 +1000

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We’re taking a short break from the Q3 Outlook series this week (Parts 3 and 4 will land next week) because today’s price action demands the attention instead. Bitcoin is up 4.3% today and back above $65k, its best single day percentage gain since April 13, on the back of comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. It’s the first time his commentary has actually moved all markets higher since he officially took over as Fed Chair back in May.

It’s a good reminder that volatility brings opportunity. Yesterday we covered the hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who warned the Fed shouldn’t repeat the mistake of waiting too long to hike rates, comments that dragged Bitcoin and PAXG lower ahead of the CPI release. Today the story has flipped entirely.

June’s CPI print, released yesterday, came in well under expectations. Economists had pencilled in headline inflation at 3.8% year on year, with the monthly figure expected to fall just 0.1%. Instead, headline inflation dropped 0.4% month on month, the largest single month decline since April 2020, and the annual rate fell all the way to 3.5%. Core inflation was flat on the month too. Coming in that far under consensus is what really propelled markets, taking a lot of heat out of the hike case Waller had been building just a day earlier.

Then came Warsh himself. Testifying before Congress this week (House on Tuesday, Senate today), he kept his usual caution intact, warning lawmakers against reading “mission accomplished” into one month of data. But he paired that with an unusually confident line: “if we get policy right, and we will, the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.” Markets had already rallied hard on the CPI beat, and that line gave the move somewhere to keep going rather than fade. Combined with the softer CPI print, the market’s odds of the Fed holding rates at the July 28 to 29 meeting have jumped sharply in the space of two days.

Put it all together and altcoins are following Bitcoin higher, with traditional markets seeing green across the board too.

We’re not out of the woods though. Oil is continuing its bounce, with the conflict in the Middle East continuing to escalate rather than ease. The naval blockade on Iranian shipping was reinstated just this week. It’s also worth remembering that the CPI print markets are celebrating describes a world that no longer exists by the time it was published. June’s data captured the ceasefire window, before hostilities resumed on July 8 and oil began climbing again. July’s inflation data, the number that will actually reflect this energy shock, is still to come.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,048)

PAXG bounced over 1% due to the bullish appetite that spread throughout markets over the last 24 hours, but it is clear where gold and PAXG stands. Whilst it was green on the day, Bitcoin was up over 4%, equities continued to bounce and hover around all time highs, whilst PAXG is still heavily bearish, with bears continuing to reject price at the 21 exponential moving average, which was seen again overnight.

We can expect PAXG to continue lower and retest the key zone once more.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

After looking like the bears had momentum, the bulls turned the tables and are looking to sustain this move above the key moving average that has been the battleground for the last nine days.

We now turn our attention to the bullish target of $66.8k. This would set in another high, which strengthens the bulls’ control.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Q3 2026 Outlook Breakdown – Part 2: Wyckoff Accumulation and the Psychology of Depression

Tue, 14 Jul 2026 11:33:59 +1000

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In Part 1, we made the data-driven case for why the current drawdown is the accumulation opportunity of the cycle. Today we look at two ideas that reinforce that same case: a chart pattern known as Wyckoff, and what’s known as the Depression phase of a market cycle.

Wyckoff: How Tops and Bottoms Actually Form

Wyckoff describes how large, patient buyers and sellers build or exit positions gradually, rather than all at once. At a market top, big sellers offload slowly, in a range, while price keeps making new highs. Those final highs draw in the most confident buyers of the entire rally, right before the market turns down. That’s what happened at the top of this cycle.

The chart below shows how it played out. Wyckoff gives these moments specific names. There’s a Buying Climax (BC) at $123,236, an Upthrust (UT) at $124,517, and finally an Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the all-time high of $126,272. Shortly after that final push, the bear market began, with price breaking down through $116,381.

Why the Bottom May Be Forming the Same Pattern in Reverse

The theory is that bottoms often mirror tops. Instead of one clean low, you tend to see a series of lows, each one testing whether sellers are exhausted, before the real move higher begins.

Our chart shows exactly this kind of pattern forming right now. There’s a potential Buying Climax equivalent (BC?) at $59,930 and a potential Upthrust equivalent (UT?) at $59,099. The chart flags a UTAD-equivalent as the next stage due to complete this pattern. Since the chart was published, Bitcoin has already printed a new low of $57,800, below both of those earlier levels, which tells us we’re moving deeper into this final stage rather than away from it.

We’re not calling the bottom here. But if the bottom really is mirroring the top the way this chart suggests, then Bitcoin printing a fresh low already puts us further into this final stage than we were when the chart was published, a sign we’re getting closer to the end of this move, not further away from it. At the top, that final push to a new high was the last gasp before everything turned. If the same pattern is playing out at the bottom, the last flush lower could be close.

Being one final leg away doesn’t necessarily mean it happens quickly, though. These final stages can still drag on for weeks or months before they resolve, so being close to the end structurally is not the same as being close in time.

This kind of price action doesn’t happen without matching sentiment. Right now we’re seeing the classic signs of what’s known as the Depression phase, the point in a cycle where belief in the asset drops off almost entirely: dismissive headlines, long-term holders questioning the thesis that got them in, and reduced positive engagement online. That’s not a warning sign so much as a normal part of how bottoms tend to form. The drawdown depths we covered in Part 1, the ones that have historically led to the strongest returns, only happen because sentiment gets this negative first.

Why These Two Things Matter Together

The chart pattern and the poor sentiment aren’t two separate observations. They’re the same underlying process, seen from two different angles. Price action looks this weak because sentiment is this weak, and sentiment is this weak because price action has been genuinely discouraging for some time.

Put together, the case isn’t “buy just because everyone else is fearful.” It’s that this specific combination, a mirrored chart pattern alongside genuinely poor sentiment, has historically shown up right before the stronger entries of the cycle.

For the full breakdown behind this framework, read our complete Q3 2026 Outlook report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($3,991)

Red candles dominated markets last night, with hawkish comments from US Fed Governor Waller around inflation and the possibility of interest rate hikes sooner than expected. Pair that with the conflict in the Middle East escalating once more, and it was a recipe for the bears to claim the day.

PAXG fell over 2% and back below $4,000, retesting the key zone as expected.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

As a result of the bearish factors above, Bitcoin lost over 2% in the last 24 hours and may have started the breakdown we flagged yesterday from the key level at $63.8k. The bears have reclaimed short-term momentum after pushing BTC below all the moving averages.

The downside level to watch for the rest of the week is $60k.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Q3 2026 Outlook Breakdown – Part 1: The Accumulation Window

Mon, 13 Jul 2026 10:27:22 +1000

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Today marks the beginning of our Quarter 3 Outlook breakdown series. Over the coming notes, we’ll be pulling apart the key sections of “The Final Washout”, our comprehensive Q3 report, to walk through the technical, structural, and macro forces we believe are shaping the final leg of this bear market.

We start where every accumulation strategy should: the numbers.

The bigger the drawdown, the better the risk-reward

Bitcoin has confirmed a new cycle low at $57,800, validating the 65% probability call we made in our Q2 Outlook that the bottom was not yet in. But the exact low isn’t really the story. The story is what a drawdown of this depth has historically meant for the risk-reward on offer.

Most people treat a deepening drawdown as a reason for caution. The data says the opposite. The deeper Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high, the better the historical odds and the larger the historical reward, at every time horizon we tested. That’s the definition of an asymmetric opportunity: downside that feels uncomfortable, upside that has been disproportionately larger every time this has played out before.

This is the case for treating current levels as an accumulation zone rather than a level to fear.

Building the case with the data

We backtested every major Bitcoin drawdown going back to January 2013 and measured forward returns from each depth of pain. This is the table that underpins the entire accumulation thesis.

Table: Bitcoin Buy Zone Performance – Verified Historical Backtest (Jan 2013 – Apr 2026)

Bitcoin is currently trading just under $64,000, sitting around 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,272. That puts us squarely in the -50% or worse row, the zone highlighted above, where the 3-year win rate has been 100% and the median 3-year return has been +587%.

The pattern across the whole table is the case in a single glance: as drawdown depth increases, win rate increases and median forward return increases, at every single time horizon. There is no point on this table where going deeper has historically punished the buyer. That is what asymmetric risk-reward actually looks like in the data, not just as a talking point.

Why depth of pain is the opportunity, not the warning sign

Nobody rings a bell at the low. Trying to time the exact tick is a losing game, and we’re not going to pretend otherwise. What the table gives us instead is a way to size conviction against depth of pain. Every 10 percentage points deeper we go, historically, the odds have improved rather than deteriorated.

That’s the opposite of how most people are wired to think about a drawdown. The instinct is to see -50% and feel the risk rising. The data says the risk has actually been falling the whole way down. That gap between what a drawdown feels like and what it has historically meant is the entire basis for treating current levels as an accumulation window with genuinely asymmetric upside, rather than a reason to sit on the sidelines.

What’s Next?

In Part 2, we’ll dig into the structural side of this thesis: the Wyckoff accumulation pattern currently forming, and what the shift into market psychology’s Depression phase tells us about how close we actually are to the end of this leg.

For the full breakdown behind this framework, read our complete Q3 2026 Outlook report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,074)

Last week was red for PAXG, and as it looks to begin the new trading week, we should be keeping an eye on the key support zone the bulls defended well in late June.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

A sideways weekend for Bitcoin as it remains stuck to the key level of $63.8k, flipping above and below it constantly. We look for a resolution this week; the consolidation is likely to come to an end. The bulls do have the slight edge for a breakout from this level rather than a breakdown, but it remains a contested battle.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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It Really Is That Simple

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 10:39:44 +1000

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Mention crypto, or Bitcoin specifically, and most people’s minds go straight to eye-watering drawdowns and wild volatility. Or the response is simpler than that: “I don’t know how to buy it, it seems too complex, so I just avoid it altogether.” In reality, it’s extremely simple.

Yesterday we covered the bear market mirror of ‘22, and the bull market of ‘23-’25 that followed it. That’s one turn of the wheel. Zoom out, and you’ll see we’ve been turning that same wheel since 2014.

If you’ve invested in Bitcoin for any length of time, you’ve heard of the four-year cycle. It’s been the case for Bitcoin’s entire life. The halving cuts new supply in half, a bear market grinds out the excess leverage and weak hands, a pre-bull accumulation phase quietly rebuilds the base, then a bull run takes prices to new highs. Round and round it goes, and so far, it hasn’t missed.

Looking at the chart above, the pattern is almost embarrassingly consistent across every cycle since 2014. Bear, pre-bull, first bull, second bull, repeat. Each bear phase has looked similarly brutal in the moment (2014, 2018 and 2022 all carved out drawdowns of 70-85% from the prior high), and each one has been followed by a recovery that made the drawdown look, in hindsight, like the best entry point of the cycle. We’re living through the 2026 version of that same bear leg right now, and based on where we sit in the pattern, we’re closing in on the end of it. If history holds, this is exactly the point in the cycle where allocating gets rewarded.

So it sounds simple. Mirror the pattern, buy the bear market, hold through to the bull. The cycle keeps disproving its doubters and keeps holding up cycle after cycle. In theory, it really is that easy.

But theory and practice are two very different things.

In practice, this is one of the hardest trades an investor will ever make. It’s easy to look at a chart with the benefit of hindsight and say “buy here.” It’s an entirely different thing to buy when Bitcoin is down 50%+ from its highs, your portfolio is red across the board, and every headline is telling you it’s over this time. This cycle has been no exception: outlets have spent the past month debating whether the ETF era has broken the pattern for good, whether institutional selling means “this time is different.”

That’s the trap. Every cycle has had its own version of “this time is different.” In 2018 it was the ICO bust and exchange collapses. In 2022 it was Terra and FTX. This time it’s ETF outflows and a hawkish Fed. The specific story changes, but the emotional experience of living through it doesn’t. Drawdowns feel existential in real time and look obvious in hindsight, and that gap between how it feels and how it looks later is precisely what makes the trade so hard to execute.

Emotion takes over exactly when discipline matters most. Naysayers get loudest right at the point of maximum opportunity, and stubbornness from the doubters floods the narrative just as conviction is hardest to hold onto. The real challenge was never identifying the pattern. The chart makes that part easy, and it always has. The real challenge is pulling the trigger when every instinct is telling you not to.

The takeaway. The four-year cycle isn’t complicated. What’s complicated is having the discipline to act on it when it counts, in the middle of the drawdown, not after the fact once the discomfort has already passed and the chart has already turned. That discipline, not the pattern itself, is what separates the investors who talk about the cycle from the ones who actually profit from it.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,115)

PAXG bounced over 1% yesterday but quickly met resistance at the 21 exponential moving average, which has been the hurdle since April. Another rejection at this EMA will likely see PAXG fall back to the key zone below at $4,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is still stuck in consolidation just below the key resistance level at $63.8K. The bears attempted to push BTC lower, but the moving averages provided support and flipped BTC back into the green on the day.

The bears are playing strong defence at this level, and it remains the key price level to watch…

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Carpe Diem: Seizing the Moment

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 10:35:52 +1000

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“Look, if you had one shot, or one opportunity to seize everything you ever wanted in one moment, would you capture it, or just let it slip?”

This iconic opening monologue from Eminem’s Lose Yourself perfectly encapsulates the psychological threshold confronting digital asset allocators today. When generation-defining macro setups manifest, the prevailing instinct is frequently to hesitate, risking long-term exclusion for the sake of pursuing a perfect price floor that rarely reveals itself in live market conditions.

Decoding the Cycle Mirror

Our desk has keenly watched the last 9 months of price-action play out in a very textbook fashion; of which is a near 1:1 mirror and fractal of the 2022 bear market’s price trajectory, overlayed directly onto the current late-2025 to 2026 pullback. Labelled as the “2022 Bear Market Mirror” and the “2023-2025 Bull Market Mirror,” the structural implication of this visual model is entirely clear. If the current price action, sitting around low-mid $60,000 range and up in the green on the month, is in-fact tracing the exact path of the previous cycle floor - therefore, one could hypothesise the next leg dictates a multi-year climb toward the $180,000 - $220,000 range by late-2029 as a conservative estimate as over-performance can and does happen in this space. This is roughly a 3x increase from current prices.

Given that we mirrored the 2022 bear market accumulation phase so closely, there is no reason to think we can’t mirror the 2023-2025 expansion over the coming years. History doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme. If you wished you bought the bottom in early 2023 but missed it waiting for the perfect entry; you might just be given that second chance sooner rather than later in the coming few months ahead.

From Volatility to Stability

Bitcoin has completed three full halving-driven cycles across the 2016, 2020, and 2024 milestones. Each interval followed a remarkably uniform rhythm, moving from a parabolic top into a deep drawdown, followed by a multi-year grind near the lows before recovering into a fresh all time high peaks.

While three matured and complete cycles offer a compelling pattern, they represent a relative historical sample size rather than an absolute law. The systematic compression of peak-to-trough drawdowns, moving sequentially from 94% down to 77%, signals a highly bullish structural maturation. As this cycle is nearing a bottom and is only ~ 54% down from the 2025 peak - much less than previous bear markets, it’s clear Bitcoin is rapidly evolving into a stable, deeply liquid global reserve asset over the long term.

Although an expanding market size naturally requires greater capital inflows to drive identical percentage multiples , this deeper institutional liquidity creates a far more resilient, lower-volatility foundation for multi-decade wealth preservation. The historic launch of spot ETFs established a unique structural milestone , serving as the permanent gateway for global capital to support the next multi-year macro expansion.

Whatchu Waiting For? Tick-tock…

Now that we’ve entered a beautifully mirrored historical bottoming zone, the risk of sideline hesitation here remains the most punitive outcome in an asymmetric asset class. In the last bear market, countless sidelined allocators expressed deep frustration, realising they wished they had bought Bitcoin for $15,000 instead of missing the entire bull run for the next 3 years because they waited for an elusive $10,000 target that never came. In other words, unfortunately they threw away the whole dollar for a penny.

Connect with your dedicated Stormrake broker today to cut through the superficial market noise and secure a genuine, once in a lifetime generational buying opportunity. Reach out now to execute your strategic allocation before the window closes on this bear market buying phase, and begins anew into yet another macro expansion towards all time highs and beyond.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,069)

With the recent Iran-US peace deal fragility surfacing once again, PAXG has retraced back down to a low of $4,016 overnight. Whilst we’re red for the day, buyers did step in and buy the discount, pushing price back up 1.32% since the low last night, allowing the structure to potentially form a higher low here at these prices. This price-action thus far is healthy and supports the case for a continued grind higher, so long as macro conditions surrounding the Iran conflict don’t deteriorate further.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation range in between $62,000 to $64,000, as the bulls and bears fight for short-term trend direction. Despite another retest of the Monday lows again, BTC is also holding a higher low on the 1 hour timeframe, with price up 1.23% since the recent low of $61,544 in the early hours of this morning. With this price pocket remaining healthy and stable so far, if momentum shifts in favour of the bulls, and they can secure a rally above $64,000 soon - it’s realistic to see further price appreciation in the coming weeks ahead towards the $66,000 zone.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The ETF Tap Turns Back On

Wed, 08 Jul 2026 11:14:49 +1000

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Bitcoin is back above $63K this morning, and money is finally flowing back into the ETFs after weeks of heavy selling.

What happened.

June was the worst month on record for US Bitcoin ETFs. Investors pulled around $4.5 billion out, most of it from BlackRock’s fund (IBIT), the biggest player in the space. The selling ran into July too, with more than a week of straight outflows. That’s the pressure that dragged Bitcoin down to a 21-month low near $57K.

Then it flipped. Weak US jobs numbers raised hopes the Fed will cut interest rates, and money started flowing back into the ETFs, including IBIT, over the following days. Bitcoin has climbed from $57K to $63-64K alongside that shift.

Why it matters.

ETF flows are one of the best real-time signals we have for whether big institutional money is buying or selling Bitcoin. When flows turn positive at the same time price is recovering, it’s a sign the rally has real demand behind it, not just short-term speculation.

The catch.

A few days of inflows doesn’t undo weeks of outflows, and some analysts think part of the recent selling was down to technical trading mechanics rather than a genuine loss of confidence in Bitcoin. The same could be true of this week’s buying. We want to see this trend hold for longer before reading too much into it.

What’s next.

Two dates to watch: US inflation data on 14 July, and the Fed’s next meeting on 28-29 July. A softer inflation print would support more rate cut bets and likely keep the buying going. A hotter number could reverse the mood quickly, just as we saw happen in reverse over the past month.

The bigger picture.

This doesn’t change our core view. We still see this as a bounce within a broader bear market, with $83K remaining the level that would need to break for that picture to change. ETF flows are a useful gauge of sentiment, but they follow price as much as they lead it. Good context, not a signal on its own.

For those not familiar with why $83K is the invalidation level for the bear market, we encourage you to read our newly released Q3 Outlook 2026: The Final Washout.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,098)

PAXG has fallen by 1.40% as the 21 exponential moving average is proving to be a challenge once more for the bulls. If this is yet another rejection then we can expect another retest of $4,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin continues to battle at the key level at $63.8K. The bears are attempting to stop any move higher, whilst the bulls are using the support of the moving average to stop any bearish move back down. We are at a decision point now, with the moving averages sitting right at the key resistance level. One will have to give soon.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.