Stormrake - Insights #Morning Note

The Australian Life Raft: Navigating the 2026 Inflation Surge

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 13:37:30 +1000

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We have been discussing the downfall of the US dollar for a long time, but something more close to home for the majority of our readers would be the Australian dollar. The struggles we face when dealing with the AUD in terms of its weakness when travelling to places like the US or Europe are easy to feel; you physically swap your currency and lose nearly half of the value instantly.

But inflation is a bit harder to measure. You do not swap $100 AUD and receive $X. Your $100 will remain at $100, but everything else is increasing in price. Now, the Bank of Canada expects Australian inflation to reach 6% this year.

Now the question for everyday Australians: what to do with your money? Inflation is estimated to reach 6%, and you would struggle to find a bank that offers close to 6% on a savings account, so keeping money in the bank will not cover the loss of purchasing power due to inflation. Over the last 5 years, the ASX 200 has returned just under 9%. Over the last 5 years, the average Australian superfund has returned 7.5%.

Bitcoin is the escape route, not necessarily for the 5-year return, but for all the reasons the US is failing. The Aussie dollar is mimicking it but does not have the lifeline of being the current world’s reserve currency. At the end of the day, all fiat currency is the same.

Bitcoin is the life raft because it is the only global asset class that exists outside of this debt-based spiral. While central banks continue to devalue labour by expanding the money supply, Bitcoin remains fixed at 21 million coins. It cannot be diluted by government policy or managed by a central authority that is attempting to inflate away national debt.

The structural shift we are witnessing in 2026 suggests that Bitcoin is evolving from a speculative asset into a neutral settlement layer and a legitimate global reserve. It offers instant mobility and self-custody in an environment where traditional financial infrastructure is becoming increasingly strained. For many, Bitcoin represents a tool for financial autonomy in an increasingly transparent and controlled financial system.

History shows that windows of opportunity in bear markets often close sooner than expected. With global liquidity returning and Bitcoin showing resilience during recent macro shocks, observing how capital behaves under pressure is more important than ever.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,756)

The bears are putting up a final stand to stop the bulls from reclaiming the momentum and to prevent a bullish crossover of the moving averages from occurring. The bulls must reclaim $4,800 and push higher; otherwise, the bears will have successfully defended this attempt higher.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is down 6% from its high that we saw on Saturday morning and now looks to retest the key support at $73.7k. The bears have reclaimed the short-term momentum following this pullback, but as long as the bulls can maintain the support at this key level, it should be of no concern.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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Evolve or Get Left Behind

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 11:39:21 +1000

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The global financial landscape is currently undergoing a structural reset. While traditional markets grapple with geopolitical uncertainty and the erosion of purchasing power, a new era of wealth is defining itself through sovereignty and 24/7 accessibility. This morning, we examine the historical shifts in how we define, store, and trade value, and why the current transition to digital assets represents a generational inflection point.

Evolution of Money

The history of money is a story of constant adaptation. From seashells and tulips to the established dominance of gold and silver, humanity has always sought the most efficient way to communicate value. While fiat currency has been the modern standard, we are now witnessing the next leap in this lineage: Bitcoin. This is no longer just a retail experiment; institutions and nations are actively moving away from the traditional fiat system. Bitcoin is emerging as a neutral settlement layer in global energy markets, with major players now utilizing it to settle transactions in a global, permissionless manner.

Evolution of Value

As fiat currencies continue to inflate in supply, the purchasing power of global citizens is being systematically eroded. For thousands of years, gold served as the primary defence against this devaluation due to its proven history as a store of value. However, the digital age demands more. Bitcoin not only shares the scarcity and resistance to replication found in gold, but it offers portability, instant mobility, and self custody that physical metals cannot match. This is why major players are now establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves, viewing it as the only real candidate for the next global reserve currency.

Evolution of Trading

Our trading infrastructure is also undergoing a radical transformation, moving from paper IOUs and the rigid, limited hours of Wall Street to a world that never sleeps. Bitcoin pioneered the 24/7 market, and now the tokenisation of traditional assets is closing the gap between old and new finance. Thanks to recent advancements and platforms like Hyperliquid, tokenised spot traditional assets and equities (including the S&P 500 and Apple) are migrating to 24/7 markets. This shift highlights a growing global demand for access that is not restricted by geography or traditional market sessions.

Times Are Evolving

The world is adapting in real time, and the majority of participants will inevitably be left behind by the speed of this transition. Moving on chain and securing a position in Bitcoin is no longer a speculative choice; it is the next logical step in economic evolution. Whether you are using Bitcoin as money, a primary savings vehicle, or simply as an exit ramp from a fracturing traditional finance system, the time to act is now. Evolve your strategy today or risk being phased out by the new financial reality.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,781)

PAXG continues to hold above the moving averages which is a positive sign for the bulls and their journey in reclaiming momentum. Its retest of $5,000 will depend on how it acts now and if it can hold above these levels.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is doing well despite the flat few days, it is positive consolidation above the key support levels. This looks like it is setting up for the next leg higher if we can breakout of the previous high at $76k. A successful and sustained breakout should see BTC move back to $80k.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The K-Shaped Trap: Bitcoin is the Medicine for a Debt-Sick Economy

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 11:30:13 +1000

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We are currently witnessing the widening of a K-shaped economy; a phenomenon where asset prices continue to soar to new heights whilst the majority of industries and the average hard-working Joes are increasingly struggling to keep their heads above water. In this fiat-driven system, wealth creation has become a game of proximity to the money printer rather than a reward for productive output. This disparity is not a coincidence, rather a direct consequence of systemic currency debasement.

Whenever a crisis emerges, whether geopolitical or economic, central banks instinctively reach for their only available tool: the debasement of the currency. By lowering interest rates and initiating aggressive programmes such as quantitative easing, they are essentially “kicking the can down the road” to artificially keep asset prices afloat. This strategy props up the top leg of the “K” at the direct expense of the purchasing power of the common man.

Think of it like this: the financialised economy of asset prices continues to inflate whilst the real economy of everyday purchasing power trends lower. This sharp divergence in trajectory creates the two legs of the “K”; a split reality where the valuation of hard assets is propped up by intervention while the financial health of the average person continues to slide under the weight of currency debasement.

A Rock and a Hard Place

The current trajectory of global monetary policy has reached a point of exhaustion. The expansion of fiat currency has backed policymakers into a corner where there are no easy exits.

Central banks now find themselves between a rock and a hard place. Either they debase the currency to artificially inflate markets, or they risk prolonged periods of economic deflation.

Choosing the former ensures that those holding hard assets see their valuations skyrocket, whilst those holding cash see their life’s work evaporate through the invisible tax of inflation. This is the primary reason why wealth inequality is here to stay within the current framework. If the government and the banks refuse to allow the necessary market corrections to occur, the only outcome is a perpetual cycle of currency expansion and asset bubbles. Don’t become a victim of the fiat trickery by sitting on the sidelines, become a benefactor by getting ahead of the curve in hard assets before it’s too late.

Bitcoin: Sovereign Medicine for a Sick System

In this debt-sick economy running on fumes, Bitcoin serves as the definitive gateway to financial freedom. Unlike fiat currency, which is subject to the whims of a centralised board, Bitcoin is a sovereign asset with a fixed supply that requires no permission to hold or use. It is the medicine for a system that has become entirely reliant on debt to simulate growth.

As we have seen historically, currency devaluation is precisely what makes Bitcoin and other risk-on assets extremely bullish in the long run. When you understand that the denominator (the currency) is being expanded indefinitely, you realise that Bitcoin isn’t just “going up”: it is simply maintaining its value whilst the fiat around it is being deliberately devalued.

Securing Your Financial Future

The long-term direction of the economy is crystal clear. We are entering a new age where traditional saving is a losing strategy. By diversifying into a tokenised digital asset-based strategy, you are opting out of the debasement cycle and positioning yourself on the winning side of the K-shaped divide. History taught us that global currency debasement doesn’t solve itself overnight: it requires a radical shift in how we store and perceive wealth. Is your portfolio positioned to benefit from the current "K-shaped" expansion, or are you still holding onto a strategy rooted in the eroding fiat system?

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,793)

PAXG is still holding above the Moving Averages, while only 0.72% down on the day, it’s maintaining the localised uptrend at this stage.

We’d like to see a strong rally above the $4,800 zone sooner rather than later in order to solidify bullish momentum here to get PAXG back up to $5,000+ on this move.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is making its push to continue higher. Making a high of $75,425 this morning and sitting at 1.25% in the green for today, this might be its shot to buck the trend. Currently the overhead resistance on smaller timeframes sits at $75,318 of which we just came into, however - if we see a break and a sustained move above this level throughout the day, you can likely expect more upside to follow.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Cost of Gaining Freedom Through Permissionless Money

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 10:18:23 +1000

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We are living in an era where virtually 100% of the global population relies on fiat currency to store wealth, continuing a pattern established over centuries. The entire financial system is constructed around these currencies, making it the path of least resistance for most participants. However, this convenience comes with significant drawbacks that are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Beyond the constant erosion of purchasing power inherent in inflationary fiat systems, the most pressing issue is the growing restriction placed on everyday people. You would think that as technology evolves, access to one’s own capital would become more seamless, yet the opposite is true.

The historical and modern examples of financial friction are striking:

In 1994, citizens in Russia were forced to seek explicit permission just to withdraw $500 in cash.
Today, bank withdrawals are frequently restricted or subject to intrusive questioning from tellers and managers, effectively requiring permission to access your own labour.
Funds are not only restricted but can be frozen at will by centralised authorities, a reality that has recently driven nations like Iran to move away from the US dollar in favour of Bitcoin.

It shows that there has been no growth; in fact, fiat freedom has effectively gone backwards, whilst in the short time of Bitcoin’s life span it has done the opposite.

This is where Bitcoin distinguishes itself as “freedom money”. It is a neutral, permissionless network that operates regardless of geopolitical tensions or banking hours. As the asset has aged, its utility has matured significantly. Bitcoin is no longer just a theoretical store of value; it is being used for everything from purchasing a burger via the Lightning Network to settling multi-million dollar oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz.

With Bitcoin, no permission is necessary, required, or requested. It represents a shift from being a mere “Earner” to becoming a “Sovereign” or “Potentate” on the Milmeister Scale, where financial privacy and autonomy are reclaimed.

The true cost of this shift is not the market price of a single Bitcoin; it is the cost of breaking a legacy mindset. This transition does not require millions or an abnormal amount of money; the beauty of the shift is mental. The longer you stay in the traditional system, the more it is costing you, not only in purchasing power but in freedom. While many are sidelined waiting for “better” prices, strategic capital recognises that conviction is built during periods of uncertainty, not at euphoric highs. All that is required is the discipline to act and the mindset to choose sovereignty over permission.

Take control of your financial future and move beyond the restrictions of the traditional system. Speak with your dedicated Stormrake Broker today to learn how you can build a secure, sovereign position in the world’s hardest money and make the shift.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,828)

PAXG is in the process of breaking out above the exponential moving average resistance. It is about to close above it which is a strong sign for the bulls and the first step at reclaiming bullish momentum.

The near 2% move is a great sign, but not out of the woods yet; ideally it sustains this move and flips the moving averages into support.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is red on the day after reaching a high of $76,000 overnight. BTC must hold the current key support at $73,700 in order to reduce the risk of this move being a double top from the previous high set in mid March.

The support is reinforced by the moving averages and bullish momentum, so probability would suggest that the bulls prevail, but ideally we see consolidation above these levels rather than a reversal.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Cost of Waiting Is Rising

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 10:53:43 +1000

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Today, we revisit a framework every investor thinks they understand, but few actually respect in real time: the psychology of a market cycle.

The chart above is a map of behavior. And right now, the market is giving us conflicting signals that are worth paying very close attention to.

Base Case: We Are in “Anger”; But Cracks Are Forming

For months, price action and sentiment have aligned most closely with the anger phase:

Frustration with macro conditions
Blame directed at policymakers and external shocks
Persistent disbelief in rallies
Positioning still defensive and reactive
Retail are waiting for lower prices

That all checks out. But here’s where things get interesting.

The Signal: Price Is Refusing to Break

Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has pushed higher by more than 5% and more importantly, it has done so in the face of what should have been bearish catalysts.

Geopolitical instability in the Middle East has historically been a risk-off trigger. Under normal conditions, you’d expect:

Liquidity contraction
Risk assets selling off
Crypto leading to the downside

Instead, we are seeing the opposite. Price strength has been the defining feature throughout this period. Every move lower has formed a higher low, suggesting demand is increasing beneath the surface.

Markets that refuse to go down on bad news are not weak markets. They are transitioning markets.

Interpretation: Early Recovery or Late-Stage Capitulation?

This brings us to the key question:

Are we still in anger… or have we moved into depression or even disbelief?

Depression phase: maximum pessimism, low participation, exhaustion
Disbelief phase: rally begins, but nobody trusts it

This recent move carries the characteristics of a disbelief rally:

Under-owned
Under-believed
Driven by structural demand rather than narrative

If that’s the case, the implications are significant.

Positioning: You Don’t Want to Be Late to Disbelief

Here’s the reality what many need to internalise:

We are no longer in a phase where waiting for certainty is rewarded. Conviction is rewarded

If the bottom is:

Already in, or
Very close to being in

Then the cost of hesitation is asymmetric.

Bitcoin currently sits just below $75K. To reclaim all-time highs, we’re looking at roughly a 70% move.

Ask yourself:

Do you want to allocate here?
Or at $90K, once the move has already happened?

Because that’s the tradeoff. Markets do not give clean re-entry points once disbelief transitions into optimism.

Conviction Matters, Not the Phase

Regardless of the exact phase, Bitcoin remains undervalued in our view. Those with long-term conviction are not hesitating to allocate. It is no coincidence that smart money has been stepping in.

Investors with conviction do not focus on labelling the phase. Those without it second guess, wait for lower prices, and risk missing the move.

If you remain on the sidelines in search of a better entry, you risk watching the rally unfold without you.

Get allocated.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,742)

PAXG is up nearly 2% as capital rotated back into risk, with all major assets starting the week in the green. Despite the move, price continues to face immediate resistance at the 55 exponential moving average, which has capped upside over the past one to two weeks.

A sustained break above this level would signal a shift in momentum, allowing bulls to regain control and target higher levels.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

A strong day for Bitcoin, up over 5% with a clean break above key resistance.

Attention now turns to the previous high at $76K, set in March. A confirmed move above this level would likely open the path toward $80K in the near term.

On the downside, key support sits in the $73.7K to $74.5K range. Holding this zone will be critical to maintaining bullish momentum.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Battle for Money

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 10:54:11 +1000

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The petrodollar as we know it is losing its dominance and global status as the go to currency. We have been covering its decline for some time now, and how it has been accelerated by the current conflict in the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz has effectively been turned into a toll booth by Iran, accepting payments for safe passage, with the exception of the US dollar. In fact, there has been growing demand for Bitcoin as a settlement method.

This weekend saw failed peace talks end without a deal. As a result, Donald Trump announced that the United States Navy will now move to block the already disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

Following this, oil jumped 10% on futures open, while risk assets and Bitcoin came under pressure. More interesting, however, was Trump’s response to the Iranian toll system, which included the following statement:

‘Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.’

An illegal toll, in this context, effectively refers to anything not settled in US dollars. What began as a geopolitical conflict is increasingly shifting towards control over not just the flow of one of the world’s most valuable resources, but also the currency in which it is settled.

Unfortunately for the US dollar and Trump, this shift may already be too far along to reverse. More nations and participants are actively exploring alternatives. This attempt to bring oil settlements back under the US dollar may provide a short term boost to what was once the dominant global system.

However, it increasingly looks like a delay of the inevitable. The current structure is becoming unsustainable and, over time, will be replaced. The alternative is already emerging, an exit from the traditional system into sovereign, decentralised assets such as Bitcoin.

The shift is no longer theoretical, it is happening in real time. The only question that matters now is where you stand when the system finally breaks.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,640)

PAXG has declined over 1% and once again failed to break through resistance, with moving averages continuing to reject any sustained upside. Price has now returned to the top of the downside zone, with bears maintaining control as they look to confirm another lower high.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has once again failed to sustain a breakout. Over the weekend, price approached the $74k level but was rejected quickly, shifting momentum back to the bears and opening the door for a potential retest of $70k. Expect elevated volatility as the ongoing conflict continues to drive uncertainty across markets.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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The Ceasefire That Changed Money

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:21:18 +1000

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Money as we know it will never be the same following the conflict in the Middle East. Since the start of the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we have covered how Iran has been accepting alternative currencies to the US dollar for safe passage. This includes fiat such as the yuan, but more interestingly and far more game changing, Bitcoin and Tether.

Since the agreed ceasefire, the strait is not necessarily open and remains effectively shut, as no oil or gas tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz, according to the New York Times.

For safe passage, Iran has reportedly demanded that Bitcoin be used for settlement. According to the Financial Times, Iranian authorities have set the toll at $1 per barrel of oil. It has also been reported that Iran has been charging around $2 million per ship.

Now let’s break down the maths. Prior to the closure of the strait, approximately 20 million barrels flowed through daily. At $1 per barrel, that equates to $20 million required for passage. For this exercise, we will assume Bitcoin is the chosen settlement currency.

At current prices, $20 million equates to approximately 281 BTC. With only around 450 BTC issued daily through mining, this means roughly 62% of new daily supply would be required to facilitate passage through the strait.

This introduces a clear supply imbalance. A single real world use case is absorbing the majority of new issuance and, based on simple supply and demand dynamics, creates structural upward pressure on price.

A return to the US dollar looks increasingly unlikely. Even a key US ally, Saudi Arabia, did not renew its petrodollar agreement in 2024, while other nations continue to move away from the dollar. As we highlighted recently, China has been offloading US Treasuries, with holdings down nearly 50% over the past decade. Russia has also been actively avoiding settlement in US dollars, alongside other major economies.

Countries are increasingly seeking neutral settlement layers that cannot be frozen or controlled by issuing governments. This is where Bitcoin excels and where it is beginning to capture meaningful global market share.

Why Would they use Bitcoin?

Sovereign money: Bitcoin cannot be frozen or blocked by any government, unlike fiat currencies. It is a truly permissionless global payment system.
Instant settlement: Moving $2 million through traditional banking rails can take days. Bitcoin enables settlement within minutes.
Real world utility: Bitcoin has evolved significantly. From a digital gold narrative to a high beta risk asset, it is now emerging as a global settlement layer, actively being used in energy markets.
Energy link: The use of Bitcoin in oil transit directly links it to global energy flows. Bitcoin is now facilitating the movement of one of the world’s most valuable resources.

All of this is happening while Bitcoin is trading at $70k.

Just over six months ago, Bitcoin was at $126k. It is now over 40% below that level, yet its use case, narrative, and adoption have expanded significantly. We have seen smart money re-enter the market throughout March, and now Bitcoin is being used in global trade flows by major players.

The fact that Bitcoin remains at $70k is remarkable and presents what could be a generational accumulation opportunity. The maths above highlights a clear imbalance where demand is beginning to outpace supply, and when that happens, price tends to move in one direction.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,743)

PAXG is up nearly 1% over the last 24 hours as bulls attempt to break through immediate resistance that has capped price action over the past few days. A confirmed break would be highly bullish. Until then, bears still hold short term control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin appears to be struggling to maintain a sustained breakout above key resistance after reaching a high of $73.1k this morning. However, bulls still have underlying momentum, which could support a bounce at current levels and provide another attempt at a breakout.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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We’ve Seen This Before… But This Time Is Different

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 11:14:05 +1000

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A Bitcoin all time high in Q4, followed by a major geopolitical escalation in February that impacts both Bitcoin and Oil, is not new. We have seen this exact structure before.

In fact, the current environment is tracking closely with the 2022 Russia-Ukraine cycle.

Back then, Bitcoin topped in November 2021 before the conflict began in late February. Price was already in a significant drawdown, sentiment was weak, and oil quickly became the dominant macro driver. The result was a continuation lower, with Bitcoin eventually putting in a -58% drawdown within 90 days of the breakout.

Today, the setup is almost identical on the surface. Bitcoin topped in October 2025, entered a deep drawdown, and then saw a major geopolitical escalation at the end of February 2026. Oil has once again surged, but this time the reaction from Bitcoin is notably different.

Post-Conflict Price Behaviour

Day 0:
2022: Oil ~$92 | BTC ~$38.3K | Drawdown from ATH -44.5%
2026: Oil ~$73 | BTC ~$60.2K | Drawdown from ATH -52%

30 Days
2022: Oil ~$114 | BTC ~$44K | Drawdown from ATH -36%
2026: Oil ~$109 | BTC ~$66.7K | Drawdown from ATH -47%

~40 Days
2022: Oil ~$101.9 | BTC ~$45.5K | Drawdown from ATH -34%
2026: Oil ~$115.2 | BTC ~$71.3K | Drawdown from ATH -43%

60 Days
2022: Oil ~$102 | BTC ~$39.5K | Drawdown from ATH -42%
2026: Not yet reached

90 Days
2022: Oil ~$110 | BTC ~$29K | Drawdown from ATH -58%
2026: Not yet reached

*current as of today

The key divergence sits in both oil dynamics and Bitcoin’s response.

At the same point in the cycle, the contrast is clear.

In 2022, Bitcoin was trading near local highs with sentiment already in greed, despite macro conditions deteriorating. That strength was short-lived and ultimately rolled over into further downside.

In 2026, the opposite is happening. Oil has moved more aggressively, Bitcoin remains in a deeper drawdown, and sentiment is at extreme fear, yet price is recovering.

Despite worse sentiment and a more severe energy shock, Bitcoin is not breaking down.

Instead, it is holding structure and beginning to move higher, suggesting that supply is being absorbed rather than forced out. The Fear & Greed Index remaining near historic lows while price rises only reinforces that dynamic.

This creates a clear contrast.

In 2022, fear and relief cycles led to distribution and eventual breakdown.
In 2026, fear is being absorbed while price stabilises and trends higher.

That shift suggests accumulation rather than capitulation.

The takeaway is not that history will repeat exactly, but that the structure around opportunity looks very familiar.

If you were accumulating during 2022, particularly as the conflict escalated and sentiment deteriorated, you were positioning into one of the most asymmetric periods in the cycle. The following year rewarded that heavily.

The same conditions are beginning to form again.

Periods of deep drawdown, extreme fear, and macro uncertainty have consistently been where the strongest long term positions are built. They are uncomfortable, sentiment is weak, and conviction is tested, but that is exactly where the opportunity tends to sit.

This time, there is an added signal. Bitcoin is not just cheap relative to its highs, it is showing resilience during one of the most stressed macro environments in recent years.

It is not waiting for conditions to improve. It is starting to move despite them.

Yes, it may be Wednesday in Melbourne, but it is still Tuesday in Washington, where once again the US President has driven volatility through late-night social media posts.

Markets were sent into uncertainty after renewed threats targeting Iran, with timelines around potential strikes narrowing and participants counting down to a 10am local deadline. However, in typical fashion, a last-minute reversal has seen Trump announce a two-week delay on any military action, contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has accepted the 2-week ceasefire proposal.

Markets have reacted accordingly. Risk assets have pushed higher on the de-escalation narrative, while oil has seen a sharp unwind, dropping over 17% in a matter of hours as immediate supply fears ease.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,701)

PAXG has pulled back over 2% after failing to break above the 55 exponential moving average yesterday. This rejection signals continued bearish momentum, with sellers still maintaining control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is red over the last 24 hours, down just over 1%, after once again failing to hold a move above the key resistance at $71.7K. Bullish momentum was building, but is now beginning to fade, and risks being invalidated if price continues to reject from this level.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The Unwinding of US Dominance and the Rise of Bitcoin

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:59:19 +1000

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Chinese holdings of US Treasuries have fallen to their lowest level since 2008, now sitting near $694B, down from over $1.3T in 2013. This is not a cyclical shift. It is a structural repositioning that reflects a deeper change in the global financial order.

We have covered this theme consistently. The relative decline of US financial dominance and the erosion of the petrodollar system are no longer theoretical. This chart is one of the clearest signals yet that the world’s second-largest economy is reducing reliance on the US-led system.

The catalyst is simple. The 2022 freezing of Russia’s $300B in reserves reframed Treasuries from risk-free assets into political instruments. For China, holding US debt is no longer just financial, it is geopolitical. In any escalation scenario, those reserves carry risk.

As a result, China is not just diversifying. It is stepping back from a system where control ultimately sits with Washington.

That capital is moving into assets with no counterparty risk. Gold has overtaken Treasuries in global reserve share, with the The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continuing to accumulate. Even when accounting for custodial shifts, the direction is clear. Exposure is falling, and so is trust.

This feeds directly into the de-dollarisation loop. Less demand for dollars means less recycling into Treasuries, placing structural pressure on US funding and exposing the fragility of a system reliant on external buyers.

What makes this cycle different is the emergence of a neutral alternative. Gold plays a role, but Bitcoin introduces something new. A non-sovereign, scarce asset that sits outside the control of any state.

Both sides are already positioning. China holds significant BTC exposure, while the US has formalised its stance with a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This is no longer speculative, it is strategic.

The takeaway is clear. This is not just a reduction in Treasury holdings. It is the gradual unwinding of a system that has defined global finance for decades.

We are watching the early stages of a new order take shape. One where Treasuries lose dominance, gold regains relevance, and Bitcoin emerges as the neutral layer between competing powers.

In simple terms, China is rotating out of political IOUs and into sovereign autonomy. Bitcoin sits at the centre of that shift.

TACO Tuesday:

Yes, it may be Wednesday in Melbourne, but it is still Tuesday in Washington, where once again the US President has driven volatility through late-night social media posts.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,802)

PAXG is rallying on the back of the ceasefire agreement, up over 3%, which was much needed for the bulls. If PAXG can break above the 55 EMA (green line), it will have clear air to push higher and potentially revisit $5,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is rallying, up nearly 4% in a few hours on the back of the ceasefire momentum. Another retest of the key resistance at $71.5K is occurring as we speak, which has been a major trouble point for BTC over the last couple of months. A successful reclaim and hold above this level would be a strong signal for a broader breakout.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Bitcoin Lesson Most Learn Late

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:55:56 +1000

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Time and time again, people view the cryptospace as a place to make quick money, yet the way to be successful within this space is quite simple. It’s to invest and accumulate Bitcoin over time. Many people think they can outperform Bitcoin through a number of avenues, some look for that 100x, others turn to gambling or leverage trading, but eventually the majority find out that they can’t and realise they should’ve been buying Bitcoin the entire time…

For those who were around in January of 2025, it was the memecoin casino on the Solana network when Pump.fun launched. It seemed like everyone was gambling, trying to pick 100x coins, avoiding rug pulls, or launching their own memecoins. Even the US President Donald Trump released his TRUMP memecoin, which was the apex of that period. It marked the point where speculation had completely overtaken any idea of investing.

Polymarket, Kalshi and other prediction markets have also taken off over the last 12 months, allowing users to bet on nearly anything. Markets where people convince themselves they have an edge, but in reality are just trading outcomes in a zero-sum environment, and allegedly where a lot of insider trading is done…

Then you have perps on platforms like Hyperliquid, leveraged trading, where we already know the rule that 90% of people lose 90% of their balance within the first 90 days, yet people continue to believe they will be the exception.

What do all of these periods have in common? None of them are done with the intention of investing, they are all forms of gambling, just packaged differently.

And the data reflects that, with 96% of memecoin participants either losing money or making less than $500, meaning only around 4% made anything meaningful. Prediction markets see roughly 70% of traders lose money, and perps sit somewhere between 70–90% of retail traders getting wiped.

Across all of these, the outcome is the same, most people lose, and this isn’t bad luck but simply the structure of the game itself. These are short-term, high-speed, zero-sum environments where there is no real edge for the average participant, no compounding, no durability, and no room for error, you are either early, lucky or you are exit liquidity.

That’s not investing, and the mistake people make is thinking they can consistently beat these environments, when in reality they are designed so that most people can’t.

Investing is slow, often boring, and requires patience, it’s about owning something and allowing it to compound over time, not constantly chasing narratives or trying to outsmart everyone else in the market.

But most people don’t want that, they want speed, excitement and outsized returns immediately, and that’s exactly what pushes them into the areas where the probability of losing is the highest.

There is a reason people who joined the Solana memecoin casino never returned, they got burned, lost their capital, and left the space with a sour taste in their mouths, while those who simply accumulated Bitcoin, ignored the noise and stayed consistent are still here.

Every cycle this repeats, new participants enter, try to outperform, get pulled into gambling, and eventually exit, while the minority who treat this as investing rather than gambling are the ones who remain and benefit over time.

The path is simple, but not easy, and most people choose to learn it the hard way.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,645)

PAXG has bounced from the zone, up 1%, a positive sign for the bulls but still a long way to go before the bears lose control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

As expected, Bitcoin reached $70k but once again has failed to break above it and been rejected since, now down over 2% from the overnight high and beginning to test bullish momentum, with this level continuing to act as clear resistance and price still stuck within the current range until a clean break or breakdown occurs.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.