Stormrake - Insights #Pax Gold

The ETF Tap Turns Back On

Wed, 08 Jul 2026 11:14:49 +1000

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Bitcoin is back above $63K this morning, and money is finally flowing back into the ETFs after weeks of heavy selling.

What happened.

June was the worst month on record for US Bitcoin ETFs. Investors pulled around $4.5 billion out, most of it from BlackRock’s fund (IBIT), the biggest player in the space. The selling ran into July too, with more than a week of straight outflows. That’s the pressure that dragged Bitcoin down to a 21-month low near $57K.

Then it flipped. Weak US jobs numbers raised hopes the Fed will cut interest rates, and money started flowing back into the ETFs, including IBIT, over the following days. Bitcoin has climbed from $57K to $63-64K alongside that shift.

Why it matters.

ETF flows are one of the best real-time signals we have for whether big institutional money is buying or selling Bitcoin. When flows turn positive at the same time price is recovering, it’s a sign the rally has real demand behind it, not just short-term speculation.

The catch.

A few days of inflows doesn’t undo weeks of outflows, and some analysts think part of the recent selling was down to technical trading mechanics rather than a genuine loss of confidence in Bitcoin. The same could be true of this week’s buying. We want to see this trend hold for longer before reading too much into it.

What’s next.

Two dates to watch: US inflation data on 14 July, and the Fed’s next meeting on 28-29 July. A softer inflation print would support more rate cut bets and likely keep the buying going. A hotter number could reverse the mood quickly, just as we saw happen in reverse over the past month.

The bigger picture.

This doesn’t change our core view. We still see this as a bounce within a broader bear market, with $83K remaining the level that would need to break for that picture to change. ETF flows are a useful gauge of sentiment, but they follow price as much as they lead it. Good context, not a signal on its own.

For those not familiar with why $83K is the invalidation level for the bear market, we encourage you to read our newly released Q3 Outlook 2026: The Final Washout.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,098)

PAXG has fallen by 1.40% as the 21 exponential moving average is proving to be a challenge once more for the bulls. If this is yet another rejection then we can expect another retest of $4,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin continues to battle at the key level at $63.8K. The bears are attempting to stop any move higher, whilst the bulls are using the support of the moving average to stop any bearish move back down. We are at a decision point now, with the moving averages sitting right at the key resistance level. One will have to give soon.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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Doomsayers Were Right, Just About the Wrong End

Tue, 07 Jul 2026 10:23:03 +1000

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The end is near. That’s what the bears have been saying every step of this cycle, and in a way, they’re right. But the end that’s near isn’t Bitcoin’s, it’s the bear market’s.

A month ago, Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in four years. The market reaction was disproportionate to the size of the sale, and that was the point. Saylor had spent years repeating the “never sell” line, so even a token 32 BTC sale (around $2.5 million) landed as a signal, not a rounding error. Bitcoin fell 20% over the following four days.

Fast forward to last week. Bitcoin had built real momentum off the cycle low, up 10% over five consecutive green days. Then came the disclosure that Strategy had sold again, this time 3,588 BTC to fund dividend payments, over 100 times the size of the first sale. Given what 32 BTC did a month earlier, the market was braced for a much larger reaction. The fall did start, Bitcoin down nearly 4% intraday and back testing $61k.

Until the man with an apparent habit of reversing things stepped in once more. Since returning to the Oval Office, Trump has shown he can move markets on a word, most recently overturning a red card in the FIFA World Cup, and now, seemingly, the Bitcoin market too. Bitcoin recovered and flipped green on the day.

The headlines around Saylor or Trump are noise. What matters is the reaction function. A sale 100x larger than the one that triggered a 20% drawdown a month ago barely dented price by comparison. That shift, from a market that panics on a small disclosure to one that absorbs a much larger one, is the actual data point.

This is what selling exhaustion looks like in practice. When the market stops reacting violently to negative catalysts, it means the marginal seller is running out of size, and the people left holding are less inclined to panic. Fewer active sellers at these levels is typically a late-cycle characteristic, not an early one.

To be clear, a 10%+ bounce off the low is encouraging, but it isn’t confirmation the bear market is over or that the low is in. One green reaction to a large sale doesn’t reverse a multi-month structure on its own. What it does show is that buyers are stepping in during this accumulation window, and that the balance between supply and demand is shifting in a way it wasn’t a month ago.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,156)

PAXG is looking to begin the first step of flipping momentum back to the bulls, with a few daily closures above the 21 exponential moving average (yellow line). In a strong downtrend this often acts as strong resistance, and has done so in this recent downtrend. If this can be sustained, it will complete the first step in flipping the momentum.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

An intraday reversal thanks to the Trump comments, but also a strong technical bounce from the 200 moving averages, propelled Bitcoin above the key resistance level at $63.8k. Now flipped into support, this move needs to be sustained to continue the current bounce higher.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Two Declarations of Independence Across Two Centuries

Tue, 07 Jul 2026 10:19:15 +1000

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On 4 July 1776, a group of colonists signed a document declaring that governments derive their legitimacy entirely from the consent of the governed. They asserted that when an institution permanently breaks that trust, individuals possess the inherent right to construct a new paradigm. Two centuries later, on 3 January 2009, a pseudonymous programmer mined a block of cryptographic code that made no public speeches and signed no formal names. However, this block carried the exact same underlying thesis. The institutions entrusted with systemic power over global capital and human liberty had repeatedly violated their mandates, necessitating a parallel alternative that completely bypassed the requirement for institutional permission. Separated by 233 years, both events address the identical structural failure mode: the inevitable decay of unaccountable central authorities and the subsequent systems built by individuals in response.

Owning What's Yours, Then and Now

Stripping the American founding document down to its core operational design reveals a line for line echo within the Bitcoin genesis block. Mined at the absolute peak of the 2008 global financial crisis, that first block contained a single embedded message quoting the London Times headline regarding a secondary banking bailout. This remains the only explicit prose Satoshi Nakamoto ever hardcoded into the ledger, serving as a permanent critique of modern monetary intervention.

This historical convergence manifests across several key operational vectors:

Consent and Consensus: The historical grievance regarding taxation without representation focused squarely on power exercised without systemic accountability rather than simple tax rates. Bitcoin addresses this by replacing political cycles with continuous cryptographic consensus. The network only adopts structural upgrades if individual node participants actively choose to run the modified code, ensuring no centralised entity can impose arbitrary rules.
Mitigation of Central Authority: The authors of the American constitution built a delicate matrix of checks and balances because they deeply distrusted concentrated power. The architecture of digital asset scarcity takes this logic to its ultimate conclusion by removing the central authority entirely, eliminating any single point of failure or chancellor discretion.
The Right to Exit: The right to exit represents the most radical assertion of the 1776 declaration. Bitcoin transforms this philosophical permission structure into functional software. Allocators dissatisfied with debasing fiat regimes do not need to petition central banks for policy reform; they can seamlessly rotate capital into a parallel monetary framework.
Absolute Self-Custody: True liberty remains fundamentally tied to property rights and the preservation of personal labour. Cryptographic self-custody serves as the modern technical expression of this principle, enabling individuals to hold a sovereign asset that no third party intermediary can freeze, seize, or reverse without their explicit private key.
Sound Money: The early American republic witnessed the complete collapse of the Continental currency, which was printed without restraint to fund war efforts and became entirely worthless by 1781. This hyper-inflationary disaster prompted constitutional restrictions on paper issuance. Bitcoin secures this exact lesson through absolute mathematical limits, hardcoding a fixed supply cap of 21 million units that no emergency legislative session can alter.

233 Years Apart, Same Argument

One Fixed the System, One Replaced It

While the philosophical motivations align, a critical structural distinction exists between these two historical models. The forefathers of 1776 attempted to construct a more perfect government, establishing accountability through legal constraints and institutional checks. Conversely, the deployment of decentralised software removes the requirement for human institutions entirely. One approach sought to manage authority through design, while the other engineered the absolute omission of central authority. This tension highlights why spot digital property operates as a pure counterweight to legacy financial systems.

For macro allocators, evaluating these historical timelines provides essential clarity during periods of escalating global intervention. When trust in legacy institutions breaks down, markets do not merely register complaints; capital actively constructs and migrates to robust alternatives. Securing unencumbered spot property remains the most direct execution path to isolate wealth from the ongoing decay of centralised balance sheets. The trading desk at Stormrake remains fully equipped to facilitate large scale spot property acquisitions, ensuring your financial autonomy is anchored directly in cryptographic certainty rather than institutional discretion.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,178)

PAXG continues to hold above the $4,100 local resistance - a great sign that short-term trend is beginning a reversal back up as price currently sits at a healthy $4,178 and in the green for the day thus far. If momentum can persist, the next headwind area before some profit taking may occur would be the ~ $4,300 to $4,400 zone as there’s significant liquidity waiting at those prices.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has bucked the trend once again, with significant continued upwards momentum from the bulls as the bears failed to produce the breakdown below $57,000 last week. With price already back at $63,800 and quickly climbing - that’s how fast things can turn the other way when everyone online is ultra-bearish: We said those buying windows don’t last long, and this is exactly what we meant. Good news for those that missed buying sub-$60K however; we’re currently at local resistance, sitting at the $63,861 mark. If we get another smaller dip back into the ~$61,000 potential higher-low pocket, your asymmetric upside opportunity becomes exceptional. Second chances are rare in this market - if they come, don’t squander it.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Saylor's Sisyphean Struggle Against Corporate Wrapper Gravity

Tue, 07 Jul 2026 10:09:53 +1000

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On 29 June 2026, Strategy officially authorised the first potential Bitcoin liquidation framework in its corporate history. This structural shift marks a profound evolution in corporate treasury management, proving that the aggressive premium model that transformed the firm into the holder of 4.2% of all circulating Bitcoin has encountered its limits. Management has introduced an operational overhaul because the capital allocation flywheel has stalled, exposing the fundamental reality that synthetic proxy wrappers can completely decouple from the spot assets they attempt to replicate.

Across the broader digital asset treasury sector, numerous listed Bitcoin treasury entities now trade at a steep discount to net asset value, reminiscent of the 2022 trust corrections. While the market initially responded positively with MSTR shares jumping 13% as investors welcomed disciplined capital management, the pivot confirms that indirect exposure introduces a layer of financial engineering that will likely end up sub-par when compared to pure Bitcoin performance in the long run.

The Digital Credit Capital Framework

The newly unveiled framework introduces a multi pronged capital allocation model designed to protect corporate structure and defend liquidity. Key adjustments include a $2.55 billion ring fenced cash buffer for debt interest, resetting select preferred dividends to 12.00% to support par value, and two separate $1 billion repurchase authorisations for preferred and common stock.

Crucially, the plan authorises up to $1.25 billion in strategic Bitcoin liquidations, extending total coverage from 17.4 to approximately 25.9 months. This shift formally signals that management now categorises its digital asset stack as active capital for balance sheet defence, moving away from its historical status as an untouchable reserve. These convoluted credit defence mechanisms are entirely unique to the corporate wrapper environment. Investors holding direct spot property require no internal balance sheet choreography, as pure asset exposure is completely insulated from the operational liabilities of an intermediary.

The Reversal of the Equity Flywheel and the Structural Trap

This tactical pivot was forced by severe mathematical constraints that never apply to direct asset holders. While the company’s internal figures place its current mNAV above 1.0, data from CryptoQuant indicates a compression down to 0.76, highlighting the tracking error inherent in synthetic vehicles. When the mNAV flips negative, the corporate model enters a structural trap; every single share sold to acquire more Bitcoin actively destroys 24 cents of value per dollar deployed.

Unlike unencumbered spot property, which maintains a constant 1 to 1 relationship with absolute scarcity, a proxy engine introduces extreme volatility amplification. The firm’s creditworthiness expands when Bitcoin rallies, meaning the vast majority of its debt and equity issuance occurred near cyclical highs, leaving recent purchases underwater. Conversely, almost nothing was accumulated at macro lows. When Bitcoin undergoes a 10% retracement, MSTR equity historically amplifies that drop by roughly 20%. A compressed mNAV then dictates that the entity should liquidate Bitcoin to buy back its own discounted equity, completely reversing the perpetual accumulation thesis and exposing proxy holders to forced structural unwinds.

Systemic Treasury Discounts Across the Sector

The evaporation of the treasury premium is a systemic trend affecting the wider Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) landscape, demonstrating that wrapper discount risks are an artificial vulnerability born of structural centralisation.

Up to a third of listed treasury firms now trade below a 1.0x mNAV multiple. If a compressed premium forces these entities into simultaneous, non discretionary selling to service debt, the market will anticipate the flow and front run it, triggering a reflexive downward spiral. This feedback loop has dismantled leveraged crypto structures in prior cycles, yet it remains a risk largely quarantined from those holding direct spot property.

The 2022 Arbitrage Precedent

This dynamic mirrors the structural challenges faced by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) during the 2022 bear market, when its discount to net asset value widened to a record low near 50% by December. That disconnect proved that a wrapper’s price can completely detach from its underlying asset when a capital raising engine stalls. Strategy is attempting to manufacture its own internal arbitrage mechanism through aggressive buybacks of its discounted paper, rather than waiting for an external market catalyst like an ETF conversion.

Macro Outlook and Desk Execution

Ultimately, attempting to secure exposure to digital asset scarcity indirectly through corporate equity proxies introduces operational liabilities that spot ownership avoids entirely. Corporate proxy models expose investors to board level cash burn, asset liability mismatches, and dilutive capital manoeuvres that degrade the core appeal of owning Bitcoin in the first place.

Direct ownership of spot property offers true asset scarcity and absolute independence from a single balance sheet’s financing decisions. The professional trading desk at Stormrake provides institutional grade execution models to secure unencumbered spot property, ensuring capital allocations bypass corporate wrapper risks and remain entirely within your own control.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,118)

PAXG is currently in the green on the day at 2.17%, as we’re still holding above the $4,000 key support. If trend can continue here with price currently at $4,118 and in the bull’s favour, the possibility of eyeing a confirmed breakout of the $4,100 local resistance is becoming increasingly more likely as the day progresses.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin continues to trend higher as the asset finds local support here around $60,000. After wednesday’s quick spill over and fresh local low at $57,800, price has been on a slow but steady grind higher with a short-term peak overnight at $62,200. Long term risk to reward continues to favour the bulls now as every quick short-term price dip below $60,000 is continually being bought up just as rapidly as they come.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Your Wish Has Been Granted

Thu, 02 Jul 2026 10:53:43 +1000

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Some may question why we are talking about greed when the market sits in a state of extreme fear. But this is exactly when it matters most. Back in February, we discussed the hidden greed of bear markets, the kind that surfaces when we are deep in a drawdown and price is sitting at generational buying opportunities.

Cast your mind back to 2022. Bitcoin traded around $20k for months. Smart money was buying. Yes, price fell another 30% to $15k, but even that was not low enough for some. They held out for $12k, a level that never came. Many of those people either stayed sidelined for good or were forced to buy higher once the move away began. The ones who did buy through that zone are the ones now sitting on generational returns.

As we have been covering in our Morning Notes lately, Bitcoin has entered a period of accumulation, a window where risk to reward is heavily skewed in favour of those with conviction. This is where the real returns get made.

Bitcoin at $60k or below is 50% off its all-time high. This is smart money accumulation territory. The difference between buying now and waiting for $50k is marginal, and it is simply not worth the risk of missing this level altogether if it never comes.

Rewind just nine months, to when Bitcoin was trading at $120k. If you had asked anyone looking to buy, “would you like to get Bitcoin at $60k?”, the answer was obvious. It was the same wish we heard from clients constantly: “I wish I had bought when Bitcoin was at $50k... $70k... $90k, pick a number.” That wish has now been granted. The opportunity is here. The only question left is whether you follow through.

One more thing worth noting: if you bought at the top around $120k, you are underwater, and that is fine, especially with a long term view. This is a prime opportunity to heavily dollar cost average. With just half the capital you originally deployed at the highs, you can bring your average entry price all the way down to the midpoint, from $120k to $90k. Deploy more, and that average keeps improving from there.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,043)

As expected, the key zone at $4,000 continues to provide support for PAXG as it has thwarted another move from the bears to attempt to push it lower. As identified previously, this could be a zone to set up a base for a potential reversal.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin bounced nearly 2.5% yesterday and was up nearly 5% intraday, but the bears quickly reminded everyone who was in charge with a sharp rejection and stopped any sustained move above the key level of $60.1k paired with the 200 moving averages.

This rejection by the bears has strengthened their control as they look to set yet another lower low to end the week.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The Market Timing Paradox

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 17:26:36 +1000

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In the arena of digital asset allocation, market participants frequently fall victim to a classic cognitive trap: the pursuit of perfect execution at the expense of macro positioning. This phenomenon usually manifests as investors sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a minor pullback to optimise their entry price while ignoring the broader secular trajectory.

When analysing an asset with an asymmetric return profile, this hyper focus on short term price fluctuations represents a fundamental misunderstanding of risk management.

The Three Possible Outcomes

To understand the mathematical inefficiency of waiting for lower prices during a secular expansion, we can look at three distinct outcomes for an investor looking to secure a full unit allocation, assuming a current spot price of $60,000 (give or take) and a conservative long term target of $400,000 within a decade from now.

The Optimal Timing Outcome:
The investor correctly forecasts a local retracement, and the price drops to $45,000. Capital is successfully deployed at the absolute bottom. When the asset eventually achieves its ten year macro target of $400,000, the total return equates to $355,000. In this best case scenario, perfect market timing saved the allocator exactly $15,000.
The Sidelined Capital Outcome:
The anticipated retracement fails to materialise. The market maintains its upward trajectory, leaving the hesitant investor with zero allocation. Regardless of how high the price climbs over the next ten years, the realised return remains exactly zero. The opportunity cost is the entire macro expansion.
The Pragmatic Allocation Outcome:
The investor rejects the timing game and deploys capital at the current market price of $60,000. When the asset reaches $400,000, the total return is $340,000. By paying a temporary market premium, the investor has guaranteed exposure to the macro trend.

Asymmetry of Choice

When these scenarios are compared side by side, the structural flaw of waiting on the sidelines becomes obvious.

In the absolute best case scenario, successful market timing saves an investor a marginal $15,000. In the worst case scenario, the pursuit of that minor saving costs the investor an entire lifetime allocation.

The math demonstrates that the downside of being wrong vastly outweighs the upside of being right. Trying to time a highly volatile asset class to save a small fraction of capital introduces a catastrophic risk: missing the generation defining move entirely.

Execution and Forward Positioning

Securing direct spot property is an exercise in managing probability rather than predicting exact local coordinate bottoms. For allocators focused on multi year wealth preservation, the priority must always be securing unencumbered exposure to absolute scarcity rather than risking complete exclusion for a minimal discount.

The professional trading desk at Stormrake remains fully prepared to assist with large scale spot execution models, allowing market participants to establish strategic positions under true market conditions without the friction of the timing paradox.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,004)

With a marginal lower low at $3,941 overnight, PAXG’s risk versus reward at this Key Support Zone is starting to favour the bulls. Any move above $4,100 would see the beginning of a structural and meaningful relief rally, as the asset has now reached a -30% correction from the all time highs in early February - typically this is where you’d expect to see exhaustion from retail sellers in such asset classes.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has seen increased selling momentum overnight on the smaller 1 hour timeframe, as we pushed back into the low $58,000 range. Whilst we’re still holding above the absolute low for this bear market cycle at $58,115 from last week, if sellers push through this current localised consolidation range; expect to see a quick spill over into generational opportunity that only comes once every 4 years…but remember; risk to reward has already begun to favour bulls here at these levels, don’t get too greedy waiting to save a penny at the cost of a whole dollar, folks!

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Onchain Series Part IV: Reserve Risk: The Conviction of Long-Term Holders

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 15:45:08 +1000

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Reserve Risk is the metric that ties this series together. Where the previous three looked at valuation, sentiment and miner behaviour, Reserve Risk looks at the people who matter most in a bear market: the long-term holders who have chosen not to sell.

The concept behind it is straightforward. When Bitcoin’s price is high and long-term holders are still refusing to sell, the opportunity cost of holding is significant. That confidence relative to price creates high Reserve Risk, and historically that has corresponded to cycle tops. When price is low and long-term holders continue to hold through the pain, that same confidence exists but at a fraction of the price. The risk of entering the market at that point is low relative to the potential reward. That is low Reserve Risk, and it is where the most asymmetric returns in Bitcoin’s history have been captured.

Reading the chart is simple. When Reserve Risk enters the upper red band, the risk of holding or buying is historically high and the market has tended to be near a major top. When it drops to the bottom of the lower green band, the inverse is true: long-term holders are accumulating under stress, and the market has historically been near a major bottom.

The chart makes this clear. Reserve Risk is currently sitting at the bottom of the green zone, at levels that have only been reached a handful of times across Bitcoin’s entire history. Each prior instance, without exception, has been followed by a significant recovery in price.

That does not mean the bottom is confirmed. As we have said throughout this series, there is still a reasonable probability of further downside before this cycle completes its final leg. But the signal Reserve Risk is sending is unambiguous: long-term holders are not panicking. They are holding. And they are doing so at a price level where the risk of being in the market is historically low.

This is the fourth metric in this series, and the fourth one telling the same story. The MVRV Z-Score showed the market is statistically undervalued. NUPL showed sentiment is deteriorating into fear. The Puell Multiple showed miners are under stress. Reserve Risk shows long-term holders are holding firm regardless. Four independent lenses, one consistent conclusion: we are in the accumulation zone. The bottom may not be in, but we are close enough that waiting on the sidelines carries its own risk.

The series is complete. The data has spoken.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,017)

PAXG lost over 1% in the last 24 hours and is now beginning the retest of the key zone. We expect buying and support at this level, and if there is a place for the trend to reverse, it is here.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

The bulls are showing they are up for the fight, reclaiming the key level at $60,100. This level is now critical in determining the next move: either another attempt at a rally or further downside continuation.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Onchain Series Part III: The Puell Multiple; What Miners Are Telling Us

Mon, 29 Jun 2026 13:01:32 +1000

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So far in this series we have looked at valuation through the MVRV Z-Score and market sentiment through NUPL. Today we turn to miner behaviour, and specifically a metric called the Puell Multiple.

To understand why miners matter, it helps to understand their position in the market. Miners are often referred to as compulsory sellers. Unlike most Bitcoin holders who can choose when to sell, miners operate with fixed costs: energy, hardware, staff. Those bills do not stop when the price drops. As a result, miners must sell a portion of their Bitcoin consistently to cover expenses, which means their revenue relative to historical norms has a direct influence on market dynamics.

The Puell Multiple measures this by dividing the daily USD value of newly issued Bitcoin by the 365-day moving average of that same figure. The result is a ratio that tells you whether miners are currently generating revenue that is unusually high or unusually low relative to the past year.

When the multiple is high, miner revenue is elevated well above the annual average. Historically that has coincided with Bitcoin price peaks, the periods where the market is overheated and supply pressure from miners is at its greatest. When the multiple is deep in the green zone, miner revenue has collapsed relative to the historical norm. Miners are operating under severe stress, many are running at a loss, and the weakest are being forced to shut down entirely. That environment has, in every prior cycle, marked the conditions from which Bitcoin has launched its next major recovery.

Where does the Puell Multiple sit today?

The indicator is in or approaching the green zone, consistent with the kind of miner stress that has historically preceded cycle bottoms. This is not a coincidence. When miners capitulate, forced selling intensifies temporarily before the weakest operations drop off and supply pressure eases. What follows that clearing process has historically been a significant repricing to the upside.

Three metrics in now and the picture they are painting together is consistent. Valuation is stretched to the downside, sentiment is deteriorating, and miners are under pressure. These are not the conditions of a healthy bull market. They are the conditions of a market approaching its floor. The final piece of this series will look at long-term holder behaviour through Reserve Risk, which will complete the case.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,061)

PAXG is hovering just above the key zone. When markets resume this week we can expect the bears to retest that level and look to push below it.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin was relatively flat over the weekend, battling the key level at $60,100 before the bears ultimately came out on top. Momentum has shifted back to the downside and Bitcoin now looks to create a new lower low, with the key support at $57,700 the likely target this week.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Onchain Series Part II: NUPL: Reading the Emotions of the Market

Fri, 26 Jun 2026 15:31:16 +1000

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This is a metric we have not covered before in the Morning Note, so let us start from the ground up.

NUPL stands for Net Unrealised Profit/Loss. Like the MVRV Z-Score we covered last time, it is built on Market Value and Realised Value. Subtracting Realised Value from Market Value gives you the total unrealised profit or loss held across the entire market. Divide that by market cap and you have NUPL, a normalised ratio that can be compared consistently across Bitcoin’s history regardless of price level.

What makes it particularly useful is what it represents in human terms. It is a direct reading of the emotional state of the market.

When the ratio is high, the average holder is sitting on substantial paper profit, which has historically corresponded to the greed and overconfidence that precedes major tops. When it turns negative, the average holder is underwater, and that has historically corresponded to the fear and capitulation that precedes major recoveries.

The chart colour-codes these zones to reflect the dominant sentiment at each level: from euphoria and greed at the top end, through optimism and hope in the middle, down into anxiety, fear and capitulation at the bottom. Each of those zones has historically mapped closely to specific stages of the Bitcoin market cycle.

Where does NUPL sit today?

The indicator is currently in the fear zone and trending towards capitulation. Historically every period spent within these lower bands, whether fear or full capitulation, has represented a strong accumulation window. There may be further downside ahead, and if capitulation is reached it will likely present an even deeper opportunity, but waiting for that moment is not a strategy. The window is open now, and those who act within it rather than wait for a signal that may never feel comfortable have consistently been the ones best positioned for the recovery.

What this does tell us is that we are entering the part of the cycle where the emotional environment begins to work in the disciplined investor’s favour. The majority of holders are at or below their entry price, sentiment is deteriorating and conviction is being tested. There is a real possibility of additional downside and that should not be dismissed. But in every prior cycle, this is the zone where the most durable long-term positions were built.

The MVRV Z-Score told us the market is statistically undervalued relative to its own history. NUPL tells us why that tends to be the case at these moments: because sentiment has deteriorated to a point where most participants are either holding at a loss or have already sold. The people still selling now are not selling because the fundamentals are bad. They are selling because the feeling is bad. And that distinction is everything.

Two metrics in, and they are telling the same story. We are closer to the end than the beginning.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,023)

PAXG has retraced back to the key zone at $4,000 as expected. We anticipate this level to provide support and further bounces before the next move is decided.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has made another lower low, losing nearly 5% in a single hour overnight. The bears continue to flex their muscles, pushing BTC lower at every opportunity. The key $60,000 level has now flipped to resistance as Bitcoin looks to move lower.

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

SpaceX’s Return to Orbit after a $1 Trillion Dollar Wipeout

Fri, 26 Jun 2026 15:19:13 +1000

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The financial markets have just completed a historical masterclass in the structural dangers of speculative equity bubbles. On 12 June 2026, SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering in market history, raising $75 billion at $135 per share to a chorus of near-universal retail euphoria. Driven by intense retail momentum, the stock soared to an all-time high of $225.64 by 16 June, briefly vaulting the company past multi-trillion-dollar legacy conglomerates to become the world’s fifth most valuable entity.

Yet, the unwinding of this speculative fervour was as dramatic as its ascent. By 23 June 2026, a rapid succession of corporate and structural shocks triggered a violent 16.4% single-day capitulation, bringing the three-day aggregate loss to nearly $1 trillion in erased market value. With the stock collapsing back to its first-day opening price of $150, market participants who accumulated at the absolute peak were left holding painful losses of approximately 33% in less than a week.

Bitcoin instead of following SpaceX’s return to orbit, has modestly separated from Elon’s trajectory and used its own launch boosters, allowing the apex asset to maintain firm support in the $60,000 range in the face of broader equity uncertainties resurfacing, including a Micron earnings scare overnight.

The Hidden Vulnerabilities of Corporate Balance Sheet Proxies

For macroeconomic allocators, this corporate wipeout provides a clear analytical lens through which to evaluate a common mistake: attempting to secure exposure to digital asset scarcity indirectly through corporate equity proxies. Many investors buy equity in technology companies simply because those corporations maintain Bitcoin on their balance sheets. The SpaceX episode demonstrates that this proxy exposure is fundamentally flawed.

When purchasing corporate shares instead of direct spot property, an investor is completely exposed to centralised human decision-making and underlying operational liabilities. The SpaceX cash burn rate highlights these systemic corporate risks. The company reported a massive net loss of $4.9 billion for the full year of 2025. While the Starlink satellite infrastructure division generated a steady $4.4 billion operating profit, the highly speculative xAI division consumed those inflows entirely, burning through $6.36 billion in operating losses against a massive $12.7 billion in capital expenditure. By Q1 2026, consolidated net losses accelerated to $4.28 billion.

Furthermore, equity holders are perpetually vulnerable to board-level decisions, such as the sudden announcement of a dilutive $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor immediately following the public listing. This corporate action, combined with a subsequent $20 billion bond offering, signalled clear underlying structural stress. Equity proxies also remain subject to massive supply shocks, such as the impending December 2026 lock-up expiry which will release 96% of currently locked shares onto the open market.

The Cryptographic Alternative: Real Scarcity

Bitcoin’s decentralised architecture is completely immune to these corporate vulnerabilities. The protocol has no centralised board of directors to execute dilutive acquisitions, no capital expenditure overheads to create multi-billion-dollar operating losses, and no corporate debt facilities to service. Its immutable supply cap of 21 million units cannot be expanded by legislative or corporate decree.

This structural integrity is precisely why Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset in recorded economic history. Over a full ten-year macro cycle, Bitcoin achieved cumulative gains exceeding 26,900%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 193% and gold’s 125% by orders of magnitude. On an annualised basis, Bitcoin has returned roughly 230%. Capturing this performance requires deep patience across multi-year cycles. Cyclical corrections frequently experience temporary drawdowns within the 50% - 70% range or greater, yet the underlying market structure has always resolved into higher ranges of secular support.

True wealth preservation requires eliminating unnecessary counterparty risk. Direct ownership of unencumbered spot property offers a mathematical escape hatch from legacy corporate dilution. Connect with a Stormrake broker today to discuss how Bitcoin is “T-minus not long to go now” before its launch into the stratosphere begins, and never looks back.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($3,995)

BOOM - there it is folks! PAXG landing perfectly into our Key Support Zone, with a low of $3,957 last night, and currently holding neatly above the top of the channel. This area should act as major trend support for PAXG as deep liquidity resides here. We can expect to see some form of bounce from these levels sooner rather than later.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has quickly swept the lows of our local support zone and once again taken out over-leveraged buyers that had their stop losses around $59,000, with an absolute low of $59,102.70 overnight. Since then, we’re already back up 3.30%. If bulls can keep up momentum here and gain local trend resistance; firstly the $63,861 level, then it might very well be another case of “the early bird gets the worm…”

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by James Ryan

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.