Stormrake - Insights #Silk Road Bitcoin

Bitcoin Rallies Back to $100k on Weak Inflation Data

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 15:22:32 +1100

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Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100k mark after weaker-than-expected CPI data set, which has spurred optimism across markets. The core CPI reading for the month came in at 0.2%, below the forecasted 0.3%, while the general CPI aligned with expectations. This data has led to a positive reaction in risk-on assets, as the lower core CPI figure signals reduced inflationary pressure and the potential for further interest rate cuts.

Prior to this release, market sentiment regarding inflation had been hawkish, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell adopting a firm stance at the last FOMC press conference. Combined with persistently strong jobs data, the outlook appeared set for limited monetary easing. However, this latest CPI report suggests a meaningful shift, potentially setting the stage for a more dovish Fed approach or even a rate cut at the next meeting.

With only two rate cuts currently forecast for the year, this lower-than-expected inflation reading raises the possibility of additional easing—a shift from the sentiment prior to Powell’s December press conference, when markets had been expecting as many as four or five rate cuts in 2025.

Source:https://cryptobubbles.net/

In response to this positive economic data, the cryptocurrency market has surged, extending its bullish trend. Bitcoin has climbed back above $100k, recovering from a dip below $90k just two days ago. The broader market has responded in kind, with 99 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies trading in the green.

Notable leaders in the market include AI agent projects such as Virtual and AI16z, alongside XDC, a real-world asset protocol that has gained traction. Another standout is the newly migrated S, which has taken the lead in the market following its post-migration downturn.

Stormrake Spotlight: HeyAnon (ANON) ($23.6)

HeyAnon, led by renowned developer Daniele Sestagalli—known for launching successful projects, some of which have reached over $1 billion in market capitalisation—has made an impactful debut by integrating AI-driven automation with decentralised finance.

AI agents in crypto are autonomous programmes designed to analyse data, execute tasks, and optimise decision-making within the blockchain ecosystem. HeyAnon capitalises on these capabilities, offering advanced data aggregation and operational efficiency. Since its launch in late December at an initial price of $1, ANON has soared to $23.6, with a market capitalisation of $398 million.

This rapid growth reflects the project’s potential within the booming DeFi-AI sector. For investors seeking opportunities in a dynamic and innovative space, ANON could be a strong contender for their portfolios.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/glasUnjk/

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has been further bolstered by the softer-than-expected CPI data. BTC has not only reclaimed the $100k level but has also broken through the middle CPR levels. If Bitcoin can hold above $100k as support, the next key level to watch is $104k.

Currently, all indicators—price action, structure, and momentum—favour the bulls. For the bears to regain control, a significant pullback below $96k would be required.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 15 Jan: $ + 205.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/xW5O0nvS/

Ethereum has followed Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory, breaking above the $3,370 key level and reclaiming the middle CPR range. This movement has flipped both momentum and structure back in favour of the bulls. The next key target for ETH is $3,557, with $3,370 expected to act as strong support.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 15 Jan: $ + 8.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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Bitcoin Rallies Ahead of Crucial CPI Data Release

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 15:08:31 +1100

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After dipping below $90K, Bitcoin has had a great recovery, climbing on the back of strong momentum. Overnight, BTC reached a high of $97.3K, marking a 9% rally from the previous day’s low.

This upward movement is an encouraging signal for the market, but caution is warranted with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data tomorrow morning. The recent JOLTS report showed stronger-than-expected numbers, negatively impacting markets and signaling that inflation remains a persistent concern. The upcoming CPI release will provide critical insight into inflationary trends and their potential impact.

Tomorrow's CPI is projected to come in at 0.4%, an increase from last month's reading of 0.3%. If confirmed, this could reinforce Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone from the latest FOMC press conference. Inflation has been a dominant bearish factor for markets over the past two years and is likely to remain a significant theme this year. Higher inflation could lead to fewer rate cuts, keeping the US dollar strong and limiting bullish momentum for risk assets like Bitcoin.

On the other hand, a lower-than-expected CPI reading could propel Bitcoin’s rally toward $100K. Combined with the anticipated market enthusiasm surrounding Donald Trump’s inauguration, such a scenario could create the perfect conditions for Bitcoin to test a new all-time high. Conversely, a higher inflation print would likely curb Bitcoin's current bullish momentum.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($22.81)

HYPE has sustained its recent bullish streak, gaining 5.5% on the day and showing signs of continued strength. While much of the market remains in consolidation, HYPE stands out as a top performer.

Stay tuned for our next Spotlight feature, where we’ll explore a leading project in the burgeoning AI agent sector.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/yEJWLQST/

Bitcoin has maintained its strength, breaking above the critical $95.7K level and flipping it into support. BTC is currently consolidating above this level, with momentum favoring the bulls as it trades above all major moving averages. However, resistance looms at the dotted CPR level of $97.4K. We expect this level to act as resistance, with $95.7K serving as key support.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 14 Jan: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/PabY1HIV/

Ethereum has shown signs of promise overnight, managing to break above the critical $3,207 level. It has also flipped the 21 EMA above the 55 EMA, signaling a return of bullish momentum. If ETH can breach the next resistance at $3,370, the bullish trend will likely resume.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 14 Jan: $ (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin Drops Below $90K for the First Time Since November but Recovers Quickly

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 14:52:29 +1100

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The consolidation range discussed yesterday has been broken, and unfortunately for the bulls, it was to the downside. The $94–96K range had held Bitcoin for the past three days, and as of yesterday’s Morning Note, Bitcoin was testing the top of the range, hinting at a potential breakout to the upside.

This, however, did not materialise. Bitcoin was flatly rejected at the top of the range and quickly reversed downward. From its high of $95.9K, Bitcoin plunged 7% within 14 hours to a low of $89.2K. While this drop was certainly discouraging, the recovery was swift; Bitcoin rebounded 6.31% in just six hours to trade back within the range at $94.6K.

The volatile price action resulted in over $820 million worth of leveraged positions being liquidated, reaffirming our stance on the superiority of holding spot Bitcoin. While leveraged traders endured liquidations amidst multiple 7% swings, spot holders remained unaffected. Bitcoin ultimately closed the day only $9 lower than where it started—proving once again the resilience of holding spot during turbulent times.

Looking ahead, with less than a week until Trump assumes office again, we anticipate heightened volatility characterised by fake breakouts (like the one observed last night). This period presents an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin and select altcoins at discounted prices when such dips occur.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($21.40)

Despite dropping to a low of $18.56 yesterday, HYPE closed the day on a bullish note, extending its streak of consecutive green daily candles. HYPE’s ability to close positively in the face of extreme market volatility signals strength. This resilience makes it a coin worth monitoring, as it could lead the market recovery once sentiment turns more bullish.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/wvqm9fq0/

As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin failed to break out above the $94–96K range and subsequently experienced a sharp drop below $90K. However, BTC bounced back and managed to avoid a close below the critical $89.9K support level, recovering swiftly into the range. While this price action confirms a bearish structure in the short term, the rapid recovery could hint at the re-emergence of bullish momentum. Traders should watch for further signs of strength before turning fully optimistic.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 13 Jan: $ - 200 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7sXPI4lJ/

Ethereum faced a steeper decline than Bitcoin during the sell-off, finding support at the monthly CPR support ($2,923). However, it has yet to reclaim the key $3,207 level, leaving its short-term structure more bearish than Bitcoin’s. On a positive note, ETH has managed to reclaim its 21 EMA, a potential sign of a shift in momentum. Should ETH hold this level and push higher, bullish momentum may return. Until then, caution is warranted as it remains weaker than BTC.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 13 Jan: $ - 52.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Consolidates as Markets Eye Trump's Inauguration

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 14:25:36 +1100

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After a volatile, FUD-driven week, the weekend brought a stark contrast in market sentiment. The US DOJ-related fear seems to have subsided, and the focus has now shifted to the next significant event for Bitcoin: Trump's upcoming inauguration. Many anticipate this political event to act as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency space.

While the sentiment surrounding Trump's inauguration is optimistic, Bitcoin's current price action reflects lingering market uncertainty. The recent consolidation has established a defined range for Bitcoin, with a breakout in either direction likely setting the bias for the coming week. Currently trading within a $94K–$96K range, Bitcoin has used this pause to reset overheated metrics. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index now sits at 61 (Greed), down from last week's extreme greed reading of 76, reflecting a more tempered market sentiment.

Bitcoin is currently testing the upper boundary of this consolidation range. A breakout above $95.7K would not only confirm a potential low but could also set the stage for a rally toward $100K. The bullish sentiment surrounding Trump’s inauguration could further propel Bitcoin to reclaim its all-time highs in the weeks ahead.

During Bitcoin's consolidation, several altcoins have retraced, offering discounts across the board. Notable past Stormrake Spotlights, such as Sui and Ondo, have pulled back from their all-time highs, presenting potential buying opportunities for those seeking value. These retracements could set the stage for strong recoveries as market momentum picks up.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($22.40)

Hyperliquid (HYPE) has bucked the broader market trend, continuing its upward trajectory even as Bitcoin consolidates. After hitting a low of $18.34, HYPE has posted four consecutive days of green candles, gaining over 6% just today. Its resilience amid broader market uncertainty makes it a standout performer.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z6aRpM7f/

At $95.7K, Bitcoin faces significant resistance. This level coincides with both the 200 moving averages and a CPR (Central Pivot Range) level, creating a confluence zone that BTC must clear to sustain bullish momentum. A successful breakout could pave the way for a move to $100K, driven by renewed bullish energy.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 12 Jan: (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/09g89mpJ/

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum has entered a consolidation phase, now attempting a breakout to the upside. Should ETH succeed, it could target the $3,370 level—a significant resistance point. Breaking this level would flip momentum back in favor of the bulls, but achieving this breakthrough won’t come easily given the confluence of resistance factors at play.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 12 Jan: (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Rebounds: Signs of Recovery After Volatile Correction

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 14:18:08 +1100

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After a wave of FUD and a sharp sell-off triggered by the announcement of the US Department of Justice (DOJ) selling seized Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin plummeted to a low of $91,150. Since that early low yesterday morning, we’ve witnessed a surge in bullish price action and heightened volatility over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin staged an impressive recovery, posting 13 consecutive hourly green candles, gaining nearly 4%, and breaking above $95,000.

This streak of bullish momentum was followed by a volatile correction of over 3% within the next five hours, bringing Bitcoin back down to $92,200. The level held as key support, with Bitcoin bouncing multiple times before a bullish candle nearly pushed it to $96,000. The price eventually settled around $94,700 at the time of writing. The broader crypto market mirrored Bitcoin’s recovery, with most altcoins gaining over 5%. Standout performers like Sui led the market, surging nearly 10% over the same period.

Despite the optimistic rebound, Bitcoin did set a lower low yesterday, maintaining its neutral market structure. However, the strong price action over the past day provides hope for bulls, suggesting that the FUD-driven correction may be nearing its conclusion. For a decisive shift in structure to favor bulls, Bitcoin must reclaim the recent high of $102,700. Until then, the structure remains neutral but leaning bearish.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hyperliquid (HYPE) ($20.86)

Hyperliquid (HYPE) has mirrored broader market trends with a mix of bullish price action and notable volatility. While HYPE is up 2.5% on the day, it has underperformed compared to most of the crypto market, which saw larger gains.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/N1CR2MBi/

Bitcoin’s dramatic 24-hour price action is evident on the charts. BTC has been trading between two critical levels: $92,500 (support) and $95,700 (resistance). It has faced repeated rejections at $95,700, coinciding with the CPR level.

If Bitcoin fails to hold the 21 EMA and 55 EMA, another retest of the $92,500 support could be on the horizon.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 Jan: $ + 19.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/8fPMDGcU/

Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin over the past 24 hours, following a similar pattern of bullish momentum followed by heightened volatility. ETH is currently trading below all major moving averages and has been rejected twice by the 55 EMA.

The next key level for ETH appears to be $3,207, barring a strong resurgence in bullish momentum.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 10 Jan: $ N/A (data not available)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.