Stormrake - Insights #SOL

The Rake Review: January

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 17:31:20 +1100

January Sets the Stage for a Bullish 2025

An event-packed January comes to an end, and Bitcoin is set to close positive once more, up 11%. This month saw Bitcoin trade back under $90K for the first time since mid-November, new all-time highs, and price catalyst events that seemed to emerge every few days. From bearish events such as the US DOJ's clearance to sell seized assets, the lack of any mention of crypto in Trump’s inauguration speech, and DeepSeek AI posing a threat to US AI stocks, to bullish catalysts like a dovish tone from Powell and a pro-crypto executive order, the market experienced a constant push and pull.

From Doubt to Dominance

In the early days of Bitcoin, many traditional financial leaders and government officials viewed it with scepticism and even hostility. For instance, in 2019, former President Donald Trump stated, "I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air." Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink had once dismissed Bitcoin as an "index of money laundering." The mainstream narrative painted Bitcoin as a tool for criminals, a speculative bubble, or, at best, a niche asset for tech enthusiasts.

Yet, Bitcoin persisted. During 80% drawdowns, it faced relentless criticism: media headlines called it a scam, governments threatened regulation, and financial institutions openly mocked its supporters. Over the last five years, Bitcoin experienced immense volatility—falling below $4,000 in 2020, then $10,000, $20,000, $30,000, and $40,000, eventually creating new highs. Each price collapse was met with critics celebrating Bitcoin's 'downfall', yet every drawdown offered a historic opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin.

The individuals who bought during these crashes—who held extreme conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term vision—understood that mainstream adoption was inevitable. They weren’t swayed by FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt); instead, they recognised Bitcoin’s value proposition and its potential to be integrated into the global financial system.

Fast forward to January 2024, and the landscape had dramatically shifted. Bitcoin was trading around $40,000, and the launch of the first Bitcoin ETFs marked a historic moment where traditional finance finally embraced digital assets. BlackRock, once sceptical, now led the charge with its Bitcoin ETF, alongside other Wall Street giants.

By January 2025, Bitcoin’s ascent continued, surpassing $100,000 and proving that those who bet against it had once again been wrong. This time, the adoption wave wasn’t limited to asset managers—the U.S. government itself had stepped in. In a groundbreaking move, President Trump signed an executive order supporting Bitcoin and pro-crypto policies, marking the first official embrace of Bitcoin at the highest level of government. The man who once dismissed Bitcoin as "thin air" was now positioning himself as "The Crypto President." Over the past year, he has repeatedly praised Bitcoin and crypto, emphasising the importance of "financial freedom" and a "pro-Bitcoin stance" for America's economic future.

This transformation—from rejection to adoption—has solidified Bitcoin's role as a legitimate global asset. The past two Januaries have validated everything Bitcoin believers had envisioned: first, institutional adoption through ETFs, and now, the governmental embrace of Bitcoin as an economic force. Those who doubted Bitcoin during the bear markets, waiting for it to "go to zero," have been proven wrong time and time again.

As we stand in January 2025, Bitcoin’s journey is far from over. If history has taught us anything, it’s that Bitcoin doesn’t just survive—it thrives. And those who understand its long-term trajectory will continue to benefit from the opportunities it presents.

A Busy Yet Consolidative January

Source:: https://www.tradingview.com/x/YOnYYGEJ/

January 2025 seemed relatively slow in terms of price action, with Bitcoin hovering around $100,000 despite its intra-month highs and lows. However, this apparent calm belied a storm of events shaping the crypto market.

From Bitcoin’s 16th birthday to U.S. government drama, inflation data, and Chinese AI developments, the month was anything but quiet. Bitcoin started January strong, with seven consecutive days of bullish price action before bearish news hit the markets.

Just over a week before President Trump’s inauguration, the U.S. Department of Justice announced plans to sell 69,000 Bitcoin it had seized. This move shocked many, particularly as Trump had previously vowed not to sell seized Bitcoin during his presidency. The timing, just days before his inauguration, felt deliberate.

This bearish revelation, combined with disappointing employment data, pushed Bitcoin lower. However, the release of bullish CPI data for risk-on assets saw Bitcoin rally back above $100,000. Days before Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin remained steady, but the inauguration speech itself brought the anticipated volatility. After dropping briefly below $100,000 due to no mention of Bitcoin in the speech, it quickly rallied to new all-time highs near $110,000.

The post-inauguration week was packed with crypto-related government developments, including:

The resignation of Gary Gensler.
The creation of a Crypto Task Force within the SEC.
A pro-crypto executive order to establish a national digital asset stockpile.

Bitcoin consolidated between $100,000 and $109,900 until another significant event disrupted the markets: the launch of DeepSeek AI, a Chinese-developed open-source AI protocol seen as a competitor to ChatGPT. The announcement sent ripples through global markets, especially tech-heavy sectors. The NASDAQ opened 1.2% lower due to the dominance of AI-related stocks, with NVIDIA recording a $600 billion single-day market cap wipeout—the largest in history.

Crypto wasn’t immune to this shock, with Bitcoin briefly falling 5% to dip below $100,000. However, Bitcoin and altcoins rebounded strongly. Bitcoin reclaimed $104,000, while projects like Sui, Ripple, and Ondo recovered their losses and rallied to new highs.

The final event of the month was the heavily anticipated FOMC interest rate decision. Although a rate cut was deemed highly unlikely, the market still reacted negatively to the announcement of no cut. However, a dovish tone from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided relief, sending Bitcoin from $101,000 to $105,000.

Looking ahead, February has historically been one of Bitcoin’s most bullish months, with an average return of 16.6%. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could end February at approximately $122,500. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results.

In the News:

Stormrake Client Portal:

We are thrilled to announce the Stormrake Client Portal. Here’s what’s waiting for you:

A secure, intuitive way to view your crypto assets.
Real-time insights into your portfolio.
A foundation for even greater features coming soon.

In the coming days, Stormrake clients will receive an email inviting them to the new Stormrake Client Portal.

Czech Republic BTC Accumulation:

Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has proposed allocating 5% of the 140 million euros within the central bank’s reserves to Bitcoin, which could make the CNB the first Western central bank to officially buy and hold Bitcoin.

Ross Ulbricht Pardoned:

During his campaign, President Trump pledged to pardon Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, a move widely supported by the crypto community. On his first day in office, he delivered on that promise, securing Ulbricht’s release.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in January 2025:

Bitcoin ends January up 11%.
XRP becomes the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Solana drops to 5th place.
DOGE flips USDC to take 7th place.
TRUMP token storms into the top 35 within 48 hours of launch.

Video of the month

The Pro-Crypto Executive Order Explained

Education: Bitcoin’s Rising Dominance: The Great Coin Dilution Effect

Over the past few years, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed an explosion of new tokens. Thousands of projects launch daily, and millions of new coins enter circulation. Despite this relentless expansion, Bitcoin’s price has not only increased but dominance has strengthened.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Bitcoin dominance (BTC’s share of the total crypto market value) has risen from 40% to 59% in three years.
Ethereum (ETH), once holding 18% of total market capitalisation, has slipped to 10%.
All other coins combined have fallen from 42% to 30%.

The Rise of Disposable Coins

98% of memecoins fail to survive longer than three months.
10,417 tokens are launched daily, yet 9,912 become defunct.
The average lifespan of a memecoin is just 12 days.
15% of memecoins die within one day of launch.

Source: https://chainplay.gg/blog/lifespan-pump-fun-memecoins-analysis/

This rapid churn dilutes the altcoin market, siphons investor capital into speculative plays, and undermines long-term confidence in the sector.

Altcoin Dilution: The Flood vs. the Foundation

While Bitcoin operates on a strict fixed supply of 21 million, the altcoin market is inundated with tokens, many of which are inflationary or poorly structured. This has two major effects:

Capital Dilution – With every new token, available liquidity fragments further, reducing the ability of altcoins to sustain long-term value.
Market Confidence Erosion – As most altcoins fail, capital rotates into Bitcoin, reinforcing its position as a safe haven.

Decoupling of Bitcoin and Altcoin Market Caps

Historically, Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market have moved in tandem. During bull markets, altcoins often outperformed Bitcoin, acting as leverage on BTC’s price action. Conversely, during bear markets, altcoins experienced sharper declines, with their lack of liquidity amplifying losses

However, the chart above points to a clear decoupling trend.

Bitcoin is increasingly diverging from the broader crypto market. Historically, speculative "alt seasons" drove temporary outperformance by altcoins, but this dynamic appears to be fading. As the latest market trends indicate, Bitcoin is beginning to leave the rest of the crypto market behind.

Key Observations:

Bitcoin’s Rising Market Cap

Since 2022, Bitcoin’s market cap has consistently trended upwards, reflecting growing demand from institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, and individuals seeking a secure, scarce digital asset.
Altcoin Market Cap Stagnation

In contrast, altcoins have struggled with choppy price action, as continuous dilution from speculative token launches undermines growth and fragments liquidity.
The End of "Alt Seasons"

The previous trend of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin during speculative phases is fading, reinforcing Bitcoin’s dominance and decoupling from the broader market.

What This Means

This decoupling reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment. Bitcoin’s scarcity, unrivalled security, and growing institutional adoption make it increasingly differentiated. Meanwhile, the altcoin market struggles with rampant speculation, daily dilution, and high failure rates.

The Takeaway: Buy and Hold Bitcoin

Despite millions of new tokens flooding the market, Bitcoin’s dominance is rising—a testament to its resilience and appeal. In a world awash with disposable tokens, Bitcoin’s stability and scarcity make it the clear standout

Written by Alexandar Artis

Memes of the month

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2022 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

Bitcoin Delivers a Christmas Morning Rally

Sat, 28 Dec 2024 19:55:41 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and thank you for all the new subscriptions to the Morning Note this year! Your support is truly appreciated.

As Santa made his rounds, Bitcoin delivered a rally of its own. Overnight, Bitcoin reached a high of $99.4k, with most altcoins following suit. Ethereum also broke above the $3,500 mark once again.

Bitcoin has climbed 6.5% from yesterday’s lows—a promising sign for short-term price action. However, the broader bearish structure remains intact until Bitcoin forms a higher high.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ewqijrLS/

Zooming out to the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, we see a clear bearish structure characterized by lower highs, including the current rally peak. This pattern confirms a continuation of bearish momentum. Additionally, a bearish divergence has formed, which suggests Bitcoin may attempt to create a lower low if this divergence plays out.

The current 4-hour candle offers a glimmer of hope. It’s not only engulfing the previous candle—a bullish signal—but is also nearing the creation of a higher high. Should this occur, the bearish divergence and structure could be nullified, paving the way for Bitcoin to break back above $100k.

While short-term movements may seem uncertain, Bitcoin's long-term bullish trajectory remains intact. These dips can provide excellent opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin or explore undervalued altcoins with strong growth potential. For tailored investment strategies, reach out to your Stormrake Crypto Broker.

STORMRAKE’S GIFT TO YOU:

Thank You for an Incredible Year!

As the year comes to a close, we want to express our gratitude for being a valued part of our community. Your trust and support have made 2024 an amazing year, and we’re excited to help you achieve even greater milestones in the year ahead.

As a token of our thanks, we’re giving you a special end-of-year bonus:

For every AUD$10,000 worth of Bitcoin you purchase with Stormrake, we’ll gift you AUD$20 worth of Bitcoin.

It’s our way of saying thanks for choosing us as your trusted partner in crypto.

This exclusive offer is available until December 31, 2024, so don’t miss out!

*Terms & Conditions Apply*

Stormrake Spotlight: Cetus Protocol (CETUS) ($0.36)

Cetus Protocol is the leading decentralised exchange (DEX) on the Sui blockchain. As strong proponents of Sui, it makes sense to turn our attention to its flagship project. Historically, when a blockchain succeeds, its primary DEX and other core projects often follow suit.

Take Uniswap (UNI) on Ethereum, for instance—it reached a market cap of $22 billion during Ethereum’s 2021 peak. Similarly, Jupiter (JUP) and Raydium (RAY) saw major rallies driven by demand and trading volume on Solana.

If Sui achieves its projected success, Cetus Protocol (CETUS) is well-positioned to capitalise on that growth and become one of its standout projects.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/kHQrLz83/

Bitcoin has broken above the key $95.7k level and surpassed three of the four key moving averages. This has triggered a bullish cross of the 21 EMA and 55 EMA, signaling a shift in momentum to the bulls. However, BTC still faces strong resistance from the 200 SMA and the previous high. Until Bitcoin clears $99.5k, the bearish structure remains in place.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 24 Dec: $ N/A million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/mvl2nJGh/

Ethereum continues to show greater bullish momentum than Bitcoin, maintaining its rally after a bullish cross of key EMAs. However, ETH has encountered resistance at the 200 SMA, forming another lower high. For Ethereum to flip fully bullish, it must break and hold above the critical $3,557 level.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 24 Dec: $ N/A Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Altcoins Show Signs of Life as Bitcoin Steps Back

Tue, 24 Dec 2024 14:14:06 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Overnight, Bitcoin reached a low of $92.5K before bouncing back to just below its daily opening price. While Bitcoin experienced downward pressure, altcoins surged. Ethereum posted a 4% gain, Solana rose by 5%, and Sui led the charge with a 10% return. This altcoin rally has pushed the Altcoin Season Index from 46 to 53 and caused Bitcoin dominance to dip.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Cy0Pp19R/

The chart above highlights the recent decline in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) and its bearish structure. BTC.D reached a high of 59.92% during its recent rally, but a lower high solidified the bearish outlook. During bull markets, a bearish Bitcoin dominance often signals strength for altcoins, as we saw yesterday when BTC.D fell 2% while the broader altcoin market gained 5%.

This bearish structure suggests altcoins are likely to outperform Bitcoin in the short to medium term. Investors may want to focus on strong altcoins that have recently corrected, taking advantage of discounted prices to build positions.

Despite short-term uncertainty, Bitcoin's long-term bullish trajectory remains intact. Current dips present opportunities to reinforce Bitcoin holdings while exploring undervalued altcoins with growth potential. For personalized strategies, contact your Stormrake broker to make the most of these conditions.

STORMRAKE’S GIFT TO YOU:

Thank You for an Incredible Year!

As a token of our thanks, we’re giving you a special end-of-year bonus:

For every AUD$10,000 worth of Bitcoin you purchase with Stormrake, we’ll gift you AUD$20 worth of Bitcoin.

It’s our way of saying thanks for choosing us as your trusted partner in crypto.

This exclusive offer is available until December 31, 2024, so don’t miss out!

*Terms & Conditions Apply*

Stormrake Spotlight: Solana (SOL) ($189)

Solana has shown impressive recovery, rebounding from a low of $176. It has broken its bearish structure and is showing signs of flipping bullish, potentially signaling the start of a new uptrend. If this momentum continues, Solana should remain a strong contender in the market.

Another coin will feature in tomorrow’s spotlight, so stay tuned!

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/lkFjYTv7/

Bitcoin recently tested a low of $92.5K overnight before a modest bounce. However, it was once again rejected at the 55 EMA and the key resistance level of $95.7K. The bearish structure and momentum remain dominant, indicating further downside potential. Key support lies at $89K, which could act as the next significant level if selling pressure persists.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 23 Dec: $ - 84.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/I9XZRaOu/

Ethereum has displayed greater resilience compared to Bitcoin, recovering well and closing the day in positive territory. The 21 EMA and 55 EMA are on the verge of a bullish cross, and ETH has reclaimed the key level of $3,370—both strong indicators of bullish momentum. If this strength continues, Ethereum is likely to retest the next major resistance at $3,557.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 23 Dec: $ - 5.1 Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Start the Week with Christmas Market Deals

Tue, 24 Dec 2024 13:59:46 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

The crypto market continues to reel from the aftermath of Powell’s bearish speech, serving as the main catalyst for this extended correction. Over the weekend, price action remained grim, with "blood in the streets" persisting. The much-anticipated 'Santa Claus' rally failed to materialise this year, leaving Bitcoin entrenched in a bearish trend while altcoins bear the brunt of the downturn.

While this may not have been the bullish Christmas run we’d hoped for, the opportunities arising from this correction could be even more rewarding in the long term. Bitcoin is currently trading around $95,000—down 12% from its all-time high—while many altcoins are experiencing significantly steeper declines.

Now is not the time to hesitate when it comes to buying at a discount. The strategy is simple: capitalise on these pullbacks. Accumulate Bitcoin and quality altcoins trading well below their recent highs, and hold. We are still in the early stages of the bull market, where corrections like these are par for the course. Historically, those who take advantage of such opportunities tend to see the greatest returns. Some of our favorite altcoins, such as Ondo and Fantom, are down 24% and 35% from their recent highs, respectively, while Sui has also seen a slight decline. This correction presents an excellent opportunity to accumulate these altcoins at a discount.

Despite the short-term uncertainty, Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trajectory remains intact. Use these dips to strengthen your Bitcoin holdings and seize the chance to acquire undervalued altcoins. For tailored strategies and support, reach out to your Stormrake broker to make the most of these market conditions.

STORMRAKE’S GIFT TO YOU:

Thank You for an Incredible Year!

As a token of our thanks, we’re giving you a special end-of-year bonus:

For every AUD$10,000 worth of Bitcoin you purchase with Stormrake, we’ll gift you AUD$20 worth of Bitcoin.

It’s our way of saying thanks for choosing us as your trusted partner in crypto.

This exclusive offer is available until December 31, 2024, so don’t miss out!

*Terms & Conditions Apply*

Stormrake Spotlight: Solana (SOL) ($181)

Solana continues to experience significant price declines, currently trading 30% below its all-time high. This correction presents an attractive entry point for investors, as SOL remains one of the premier cryptocurrencies in the space. To reclaim its all-time high, SOL would need to rise by 45%. Looking ahead, Solana is well-positioned to surpass its previous highs by 2025. This pullback offers a compelling opportunity for long-term holders to accumulate.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/oEql0HZ0/

Bitcoin remains locked in a bearish structure, failing to break above the 55 EMA at $99,500. Since then, BTC has slipped below all major moving averages and the critical support level of $95,700. The current low stands at $92,200, and with the bearish trend persisting, another retest of this low seems likely.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 22 Dec: $ N/A million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/NmHaXzA6/

Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s bearish structure, marked by lower highs and lower lows, trading beneath all major moving averages. ETH faced rejection at the 55 EMA and the key resistance level of $3,557, subsequently falling below the support at $3,370. A retest of its recent low of $3,100 appears imminent.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 22 Dec: $ N/A Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

A Wild Ride: One of the Craziest Days in This Bull Market

Tue, 24 Dec 2024 13:50:57 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

To those just waking up, the crypto market is showing signs of recovery. Bitcoin closed positive for the day, Ethereum is climbing, and many altcoins are rallying. When you went to bed, things looked bleak—Bitcoin was rapidly approaching $90,000. However, the last 12 hours have been extremely promising for the broader crypto market.

Bitcoin now trades just above $97,700 after hitting a low of $92,200, marking an almost 5% gain from the daily low. This sharp reversal could be the first indication that the correction has bottomed out. If true, this would mark a 15% pullback for Bitcoin, a 25% drop for Ethereum, and a 34% dip for Solana.

What’s Next for Bitcoin and the Broader Crypto Market?

Over the past 12 hours, altcoins like Sui, Fantom, and Ondo—recent top performers—were down at least 15%, threatening to fall even further. From their highs, these coins had retraced 30%, 45%, and 30%, respectively. Yesterday’s correction presented investors with a golden opportunity to purchase strong altcoins at heavily discounted prices.

Sui (SUI): Rebounded 32% from its low and is up 12% over the last 24 hours.
Ondo (ONDO): Gained 22% from its low and is now 4% higher for the day.
Fantom (FTM): Recovered 17% from its low and is trading flat for the day.

When I say bull market corrections happen fast and create opportunities for the brave, I mean it. These altcoins have already delivered strong returns for those who seized the moment. If Bitcoin returns to a bullish structure, these assets could push to new highs.

While uncertainty lingers in the short term, Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trend remains intact. Use these corrections as opportunities to add to your Bitcoin position and pick up quality altcoins at a discount. Contact your Stormrake Broker to capitalize on these opportunities.

Stormrake Spotlight: Solana (SOL) ($194)

Solana has made a full recovery to yesterday's opening price. During the correction, it dipped to $175, a 10% drop from its current level. This presented an excellent buying opportunity for those who acted decisively.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/9M1oI8FH/

Bitcoin remains in a short-term bearish trend despite the recent recovery. The structure of lower highs and lower lows persists, and the 55 EMA remains above the 21 EMA, confirming bearish momentum. For Bitcoin to flip bullish, it must reclaim $100,000. The first step would be breaking above the 55 EMA, which is likely to act as strong resistance.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 20 Dec: $ - 132.4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/OCUDuerX/

Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s bearish structure. After breaking key support levels, it staged a sharp recovery and is now trading above the 21 EMA. However, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows remains intact. Until this changes, Ethereum will likely stay bearish in the short term.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 20 Dec: $ + 15.6 Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Rake Review: December

Fri, 20 Dec 2024 17:55:40 +1100

A Year in Review

Our Christmas gift to you, an early Rake Review as well as a Christmas promotion. Read more to find out...

An Incredibly Volatile Month

December has been an exceptionally volatile month, featuring two major liquidation events, four new all-time highs, and an interest rate cut followed by a press conference from Jerome Powell that rattled global markets. But most importantly, Bitcoin hit $100,000 USD.

With less than three weeks of the month gone, the hope is that the Christmas period will stabilise the market and set Bitcoin up for another rally.

The month began with significant turbulence. December 5, the day Bitcoin hit $100k was also the same day Bitcoin experienced one of the largest liquidation events in recent history, plunging from a high of $104,000 to a low of $90,500—a 15% range in a single day. This resulted in $1.1 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated, marking the largest day for liquidations since August. The chaos escalated further on December 9th, with another liquidation event surpassing the first. Bitcoin corrected sharply from $101,200 to $94,100, wiping out $1.7 billion in leveraged positions in a single day. To put this in perspective, this liquidation volume exceeded that of the FTX collapse in late 2022.

Despite these setbacks, Bitcoin rebounded strongly. Finding support at the 25-day exponential moving average, it surged to new all-time highs for three consecutive days. The bullish momentum was a relief for Bitcoin investors, as the asset once again outperformed the broader market. Bitcoin dominance climbed, while many altcoins struggled to keep up. Notable exceptions included Ondo and Sui, which also set new highs. With an interest rate cut on the horizon and the historical "Santa Claus Rally" adding seasonal optimism, conditions appeared favorable for Bitcoin.

However, Jerome Powell’s post-rate-cut press conference shifted the tone. While the Federal Reserve delivered the anticipated interest rate cut, Powell’s remarks struck a hawkish note. Key takeaways included:

Persistent inflation remains a concern.
Projections for five interest rate cuts in 2025 were revised down to two.
The Fed plans to adopt a cautious approach to future cuts.
Uncertainty surrounds Trump’s upcoming policies.
The Federal Reserve reaffirmed its policy prohibiting Bitcoin holdings, with no plans to change this stance.

The market’s reaction was swift and severe:

The US dollar surged to a two-year high.
US stock markets shed $1.5 trillion in value.
Gold and silver dropped 2% and 5%, respectively.
Bitcoin fell over 4%, briefly dipping below $100,000.
Most altcoins suffered declines of over 10%.

All this unfolded within the first three weeks of December, leaving plenty of room for additional surprises in the remaining days. Historically, the Christmas period has been bullish for Bitcoin, and we remain optimistic about a positive close to the year.

As always, our long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin is unwavering. Corrections should be viewed as opportunities to buy the dip, accumulate Bitcoin, and invest in high-potential altcoins at discounted prices. This strategy has consistently proven to be a formula for success.

What’s Next for Bitcoin in January?

January 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal month for global markets, with events that could set the tone for the next four years. Most notably, Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th is expected to have a significant impact, particularly on Bitcoin.

The anticipated implementation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve shortly after the inauguration is likely to drive unprecedented demand from the US Government. This move could trigger a domino effect, as other nations may act preemptively by purchasing Bitcoin for their own reserves. Currently, many countries already hold Bitcoin:

El Salvador has been actively buying.
China and the UK have acquired Bitcoin through seizures.
Countries such as Bhutan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar are mining or rumored to be accumulating Bitcoin.

There is increasing speculation that sovereign Bitcoin purchases by Middle Eastern nations could intensify. Once the US government begins its acquisitions, other major countries are likely to follow, potentially igniting a global race to lead in the crypto space.

Before Trump's inauguration, FTX, the collapsed exchange, is set to begin repayments starting January 3rd. The first batch of customers will receive compensation in USDT or USDC. It is highly likely that a significant portion of these funds will stay within the crypto ecosystem, flowing into assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins. This development serves as another bullish catalyst to kick off the year on a strong note.

From a market cycle perspective, January is still early in the bull run. Bitcoin remains dominant, with Bitcoin dominance flipping bullish as Ethereum and other altcoins struggle to consistently outperform. This aligns with phase one of the bull market cycle, where Bitcoin historically leads the charge.

The trajectory for January will depend heavily on how December concludes. Two scenarios stand out:

Bullish Close to December: If Bitcoin reclaims its short- and medium-term bullish structure and trades back above $100,000, further all-time highs in the $110,000–$120,000 range are likely in January.
Bearish Close to December: A deeper correction could see Bitcoin trading closer to $75,000 as we enter the new year.

Barring any black swan events or unforeseen developments in December, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains firmly bullish. Deeper corrections should be embraced as opportunities to strengthen Bitcoin positions and accumulate strong altcoins at discounted prices.

A Timeline of Key Events that Shaped Bitcoin

A clearer view of the chart above can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/ve1vEvwc/

Opening the Year Strong at $42,200
ETF launch Jan 11 ($46.6k)

All time high March 14 ($73.8k)

Bitcoin halving April 20 ($64.4k)

8 month consolidation (Between $50-$70k)

Mt Gox Repayments, German Government and US DOJ mass selling of BTC

Early July ($53.4k low)

Trump’s speech at Bitcoin 2024 29 July ($70k)

Yen carry trade 5 August ($49k low)

Jackson Hole Symposium 26 August ($65k)

Dovish Jerome Powell saw risk on assets rally

First Trump Assassination - Trump Pump

Marked the low at $52.5k and rallied to $67k in three weeks,

October - ‘Uptober’

US Election; Trump wins, ATH arrives November

Further momentum

$100k Dec

Powell hawkish speech sub 100k

2025; Time for the Real Bull Market

2025 is shaping up to be a landmark year for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Based on the timing of this bull cycle, we expect the peak to occur later in the year. As highlighted earlier, we are still in the early stages of the bull market, with a blow-off top and full-scale altseason yet to unfold.

One of the most anticipated events is Trump’s inauguration in January, which is expected to initiate the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve shortly thereafter. This policy will see the US Government purchase 200,000 Bitcoin using existing funds, creating an unprecedented surge in demand. Such institutional buying pressure will likely trigger a historic rally. For a detailed analysis of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, refer to our previous Rake Review article.

While we are deeply bullish on Bitcoin—it should be the cornerstone of any crypto portfolio—we’ve also identified several altcoins with the potential to lead the market during the altseason. Many of these have already delivered impressive returns, as covered in our daily Morning Notes and Thunder Trading articles. However, with the bull cycle still in its early phase, these coins have significant upside left. Among our favorites are SUI, ONDO, SOL, and FTM, to name a few. For the complete list, reach out to your Stormrake Broker.

A key metric we use to assess market positioning is the MVRV Z-score (Market Value to Realized Value). This indicator compares Bitcoin’s market value (black line) to its realized value (blue line), with the Z-score (orange line) highlighting standard deviations between the two. Historically, the Z-score’s green band signals market bottoms, while the red band signals tops. Currently, the Z-score remains in the lower half of the chart, far from the red band. This strongly suggests that the peak of this bull cycle is still a long way off.

Finally, it’s essential to emphasise that there is never a bad time to buy Bitcoin. Over its lifetime, Bitcoin has proven to be one of the best-performing assets, with every holder who kept their Bitcoin for four years or more always ending up in profit. A common mistake among investors is attempting to time the market and overtrading. The reality is that time in the market always beats timing the market. Instead of waiting for a dip that may never come, it’s better to accumulate Bitcoin consistently.

This advice is especially relevant as Bitcoin nears all-time highs—its price tag can be intimidating, but sitting on the sidelines often leads to missed opportunities. To delve deeper into how overtrading can lead to underperformance, check out our detailed Thunder Trading article here.

Market Update

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in December 2024:

Bitcoin is currently up 0.60% from the open…
XRP reaches 4th in overall market cap after being 3rd for a brief time
Cardano jumps Lido Staked Ether to move into 9th
Solana falls from 4th to 6th largest crypto
ISO tokens continue to be the dominant category, HBAR, XRP, ALGO and XLM leading.

Video of the month

A snippet from Jerome Powell's Hawkish Speech

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Performance:

All throughout December the net flow of money in Bitcoin and Ethereum has remained positive for every consecutive day. This exemplifies the positive market sentiment about the new securitisation of digital products on established exchanges.

Stormrake Morning Notes and Thunder Trading Hits

One of the standout achievements of the year has been the revival of our Morning Notes and Thunder Trading articles. These research pieces have provided clients with invaluable insights into the markets, particularly crypto projects we identified as undervalued.

Clients can tailor their engagement by opting to receive just the Rake Review, Morning Notes, Thunder Trading, or a customised combination of these updates, this can be done by clicking HERE.

Morning Note (DAILY PUBLICATIONS)

Our Morning Notes are concise, 3–5-minute reads delivered to subscribers six days a week. Each note includes:

Daily Market Analysis: A snapshot of market movements and relevant events impacting short-term prices.
Stormrake Spotlight: A feature on a specific coin or project we believe to be undervalued. These picks have consistently yielded impressive returns for those who followed.
Short-Term Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis: A technical overview of key price levels and trends to watch.

Thunder Trading (TOPICAL PUBLICATIONS)

Thunder Trading articles dive deeper, offering in-depth research on specific projects, migrations, or significant events affecting the market. Some of our most notable Thunder Trading pieces this year include:

The Yen Carry Trade and its market impact.
The Mt. Gox repayments and mass Bitcoin sell-offs by the US DOJ and German government.
The introduction of Ethereum ETFs.
Educational insights, such as overtrading and its impact on underperformance.
A project-focused deep dive on Sui, which was a major hit with clients.

The Sui article was particularly well-received. Subscribers who followed our analysis were able to purchase Sui at prices below $2. With its recent all-time high just under $5, the project continues to show potential for further rallies. For a comprehensive look at why we remain bullish on Sui, read the full article.

To explore our published Thunder Trading articles, click here, and to stay ahead of future editions, make sure to opt-in and subscribe.

Majority coins in the Stormrake Spotlight have been quite successful, below is a full list of coins that have featured in the Stormrake Spotlight and their performance since featuring.

**figures at time of writing 19/12/2024*

Since launching the Stormrake Spotlight in September, 13 coins have been featured, each delivering peak returns of at least 15% above their initial mention. Notably, eight of these coins remain comfortably in profit.

Top Performers

Five coins (FTM, SUI, GOAT, DOGE, ONDO) have achieved returns well over 100% since being featured.
Four of these still remain above 100% from their first mention.
WIF and SOL narrowly missed the 100% milestone, peaking at 97% and 92%, respectively.
ETH and TAO peaked at 55% and 73%, respectively, meaning nine of the 13 coins have delivered over 50% returns.

To ensure you don’t miss out on future opportunities and the exceptional returns from Stormrake Spotlight, subscribe to the Morning Notes on Substack here. SUBSCRIBE

STORMRAKE'S CHRISTMAS GIFT TO YOU

Thank You for an Incredible Year!

As a token of our thanks, we’re giving you a special end-of-year bonus:

For every AUD$10,000 worth of Bitcoin you purchase with Stormrake, we’ll gift you AUD$20 worth of Bitcoin.

It’s our way of saying thanks for choosing us as your trusted partner in crypto.

This exclusive offer is available until December 31, 2024, so don’t miss out!

Terms & Conditions

This promotion is valid from December 21, 2024 to December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM (AEST).
Bonus Bitcoin is awarded at a rate of AUD$20 for every AUD$10,000 worth of Bitcoin purchased in a single transaction.
Bonus Bitcoin will be credited to your account as part of the qualifying transaction.
Transactions canceled or refunded will not qualify for the bonus.
Standard trading fees apply.
We reserve the right to amend or withdraw this promotion at any time without prior notice.

Written by Alexandar Artis

Memes of the month

Start Your Brokerage Account

Get Started

If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Market Correction Deepens: What’s Next for Crypto?

Fri, 20 Dec 2024 15:15:29 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

The fallout from Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday has significantly impacted markets, pushing Bitcoin below $100k for the first time since December 11th. This correction differs notably from the two prior pullbacks witnessed earlier this month. Those were rapid liquidation events, with the market recovering within hours.

However, this latest correction is distinct. It was driven by a tangible macroeconomic catalyst and reflected across all markets. U.S. stock indices, commodities, and crypto assets all suffered declines following Powell’s hawkish rhetoric.

What’s Next for Bitcoin and the Broader Crypto Market?

Unlike the previous events, we have yet to see a sharp recovery this time, indicating that the correction may be more prolonged—perhaps the first substantial pullback of this bull market. As highlighted in our July Thunder Trading article on bull market corrections, such retracements often exhibit greater severity and length. Bitcoin is currently down 10% from its all-time high, and historical data suggests that typical bull market corrections involve 25-30% retracements over a span of 20-35 days.

If Bitcoin were to experience a 30% pullback from its current high, we could see Bitcoin price drop to around $75k in the coming month. For a deeper dive into the dynamics of bull market corrections, revisit the full analysis here. Should Bitcoin test these levels, altcoins are likely to suffer even steeper losses, with some potentially retracing 50% or more.

Already, several altcoins are trading at significant discounts. For instance, FTM is down 30% from its high set four days ago, Sui has dropped 13%, Ondo is off 17%, and XRP has fallen 22%. While these declines may feel steep, they also present compelling opportunities. If Bitcoin continues to slide, further discounts across the altcoin market can be expected.

It’s important to emphasise that this analysis is based on historical patterns and does not guarantee Bitcoin will drop to $75k. However, even if such a scenario unfolds, Bitcoin would remain within a long-term bullish structure. Corrections like these should not be interpreted as signals to exit the market or a sign of a bull market's end. Instead, they should be met with strategic buying and a focus on accumulating quality assets.

As detailed in our Thunder Trading article, such corrections are rare. In fact, fewer than 10 similar events have occurred in Bitcoin’s history, and every single one has rewarded investors who seized the opportunity. For those feeling underexposed or concerned about missing out, this phase represents the early stages of growth in the crypto market—a fertile environment for believers to build positions for substantial long-term gains. Contact your Stormrake Crypto Broker today to make the most of this window.

Stormrake Spotlight: Solana (SOL) ($194.5)

Solana has dropped another 6% in the last 24 hours and may see further declines if the broader market remains bearish. These pullbacks present excellent opportunities to accumulate premier cryptocurrencies like SOL at discounted prices.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JdDelQDH/

Bitcoin’s bearish momentum persists after breaching the $100k level. While BTC attempted a bounce off this critical support, the move was capped by resistance at the 21 EMA, driving the price back below $100k. Bitcoin now trades just above $95.7k, a key support level. Unless BTC establishes a higher high or flips the moving averages, the trend remains bearish, favoring further downside.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 19 Dec: $ - 384.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/vKj1ALdK/

Ethereum continues to breach key levels of support. The lack of support at these points highlights the prevailing strength of bearish momentum. Currently, ETH is attempting to hold the $3,370 level, but any bounce is likely to face resistance at the 21 EMA, potentially leading to a deeper decline. As long as Bitcoin remains bearish, ETH is expected to follow suit.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 19 Dec: $ - 68.1 Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Jerome Powell Sparks Market Selloff

Thu, 19 Dec 2024 12:19:43 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Despite the expected 25 bps interest rate cut, FOMC Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks during his post-decision press conference rattled markets. Traditional assets, commodities, and cryptocurrencies all plunged, while the U.S. Dollar surged to a two-year high.

The key takeaways from Powell’s hawkish speech are as follows:

2025 Interest Rate Cuts: Only two rate cuts are expected to occur in 2025, in September, the sentiment was dovish and people were factoring in five rate cuts in 2025
Cautious Approach regarding cuts: Powell indicated that while the recent rate cut was appropriate, any further reductions would require clear evidence of sustained progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation target. He stated, "I think from here it's a new phase and we're going to be cautious about further cuts."
Trump Policy Uncertainty: Powell emphasised the uncertainty surrounding the potential economic impact of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies, including tariffs and immigration measures, and indicated that it is too early to determine how these policies might influence the economy and the Fed's policy decisions.
Bitcoin Holdings: Addressing questions about the Federal Reserve's stance on cryptocurrencies, Powell stated that the central bank is not permitted to hold significant amounts of bitcoin and has no intention of seeking changes to this policy.

Following Powell’s remarks, the US dollar reached a two year high, U.S. markets shed over $1.5 trillion in value. Gold dropped 2%, silver 3%, and Bitcoin 4%, while the broader crypto market suffered even deeper losses, with most altcoins down over 10%.

One positive takeaway from the market dip is the rise in Bitcoin dominance, as investors rotate from altcoins to Bitcoin. This trend underscores confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value during market turbulence. If Bitcoin dominance were falling alongside the market, it would signal broader concerns.

For opportunistic investors, this pullback presents a golden opportunity to accumulate discounted Bitcoin and altcoins. These dips are fast and rare in bull markets. Historically, those who act decisively during such corrections are handsomely rewarded, while hesitant investors often miss out. The strategy remains simple: buy Bitcoin, buy discounted altcoins, and hold.

FANTOM TO SONIC MIGRATION:

The highly anticipated Sonic mainnet is now live. Users have 90 days to freely migrate their funds between the Fantom blockchain and Sonic. After this window, a one-way bridge from Fantom to Sonic will remain, converting ‘$FTM’ tokens to ‘$S’ on a 1:1 basis.

For those holding $FTM with us, tokens will be automatically converted to $S at no extra cost unless requested otherwise. This migration marks a significant milestone for the project and its long-term prospects.

For investors feeling underexposed or worried about missing out, this is just the beginning. Strengthening your Bitcoin position or acquiring quality altcoins could yield substantial long-term gains. The crypto market is still in its early growth phase, providing believers with a prime environment to capitalise. Contact your Stormrake Crypto Broker today to seize this moment.

Stormrake Spotlight: Solana (SOL) ($207)

Solana has dropped 7.5% in the past day, presenting a compelling opportunity for dip buyers. Currently trading 28% below its all-time high, a recovery to previous highs could yield substantial returns for those brave enough to seize the moment.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/BcOUhXAC/

We discussed yesterday that if the 55 EMA failed to hold, Bitcoin would likely turn bearish. Unfortunately, that scenario has played out. BTC has fallen below all moving averages and is now trading at the critical $100k support level. The structure and momentum remain bearish, but holding this key level could spark an attempt to break the bearish structure. For now, $100k remains a crucial level to watch.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 18 Dec: $ - 52.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/9kuXm9xd/

Ethereum has fallen 6.84% over the last 24 hours, breaking below all moving averages and through the critical $3,724 level. If bearish momentum persists, ETH is likely to test the next key support at $3,557. However, reclaiming $3,724 could be an early indication of a bullish recovery in momentum and structure.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 18 Dec: $ - 79.4 Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High as Alts Trade at a Discount

Wed, 18 Dec 2024 14:17:04 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high overnight at $108,350, but this came as most altcoins faced notable declines. Despite the record high, Bitcoin closed the day only 0.07% above its opening price. While not inherently concerning, the 2% drop from the daily high to the close isn’t the most bullish signal for short-term price action.

With the interest rate decision looming tomorrow morning, crypto investors are once again pivoting their attention toward Bitcoin. This sentiment is reflected in Bitcoin Dominance, which climbed above 58%—a new higher high and higher low—suggesting a potential reversal to the upside for dominance. While Bitcoin remains steady and even printed a fresh all-time high, most altcoins have dropped more than 5% over the last 24 hours.

The Altseason Index continues its decline, now sitting at 63, down from 65 yesterday. Simultaneously, the market's sentiment has cooled slightly, as the Fear and Greed Index dipped from 87 to 81. Despite this slight pullback, the index remains firmly in the ‘extreme greed’ territory.

The path to success is clear: buy and hold Bitcoin. Don’t overcomplicate things. For more on this topic, check out our recent Thunder Trading article: Overtrading Leads to Underperformance.

Stormrake Spotlight: Solana (SOL) ($225)

Solana was one of the few standout performers yesterday, closing the day 3% up from its open and currently trading 6.66% higher from yesterday’s low. This positive price action is noteworthy, especially as Ethereum closed 2.4% down. Solana’s relative strength signals bullish momentum and could pave the way for a move back toward new all-time highs.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/SvTgDmnf/

Bitcoin has hit the $108k CPR resistance, as anticipated, which triggered a rejection back down. This pullback saw BTC break below the 21EMA but find support at the 55EMA. If the 55EMA fails to hold, it could signal the end of short-term bullish momentum and open the door for a deeper pullback. Expect this resistance level to remain a significant hurdle for BTC on its next breakout attempt.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 17 Dec: $ - 122.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/oI8Nvkiw/

Ethereum has surrendered all its gains from the past two days and is now approaching key support at $3,724. A bearish crossover of the key EMAs has emerged, confirming a breakdown in the bullish structure as ETH continues to print lower highs and lower lows. If ETH loses the 200SMA, it could accelerate its decline straight to the $3,724 level.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 17 Dec: $ + 6.0 Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Back-to-Back Mornings of New Bitcoin All-Time Highs

Tue, 17 Dec 2024 14:05:24 +1100

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Bullish momentum has firmly returned as Bitcoin set another all-time high overnight at $107.8k. However, this surge wasn’t mirrored across the broader crypto market. Ethereum and Ondo were among the few assets that remained in the green over the last 24 hours. Prior to yesterday, most coins enjoyed an impressive rally but have since seen a healthy and measured pullback. Notably, Fantom (FTM) surged as high as 24% before undergoing a modest 6% retracement.

As we edge closer to the interest rate decision and the Christmas season, Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, fueled by optimism surrounding these anticipated bullish catalysts.

Despite Bitcoin’s rally and its fresh all-time high, altcoins have delivered mixed results. The altseason index has slipped to 65, while Bitcoin dominance has rebounded, showing signs of a potential trend reversal. After bottoming at 54.56% on December 3rd, Bitcoin dominance now trades just shy of 58%. Although not yet a full-fledged reversal, it has established a higher low and appears poised to print a higher high on the daily timeframe.

Ethereum remains in a downtrend against Bitcoin, having set yet another lower high, further cementing its bearish structure. Until Bitcoin dominance breaks down decisively and we see consistent outperformance from altcoins, the long-awaited altseason remains on hold.

The path to success is clear: buy and hold Bitcoin. Don’t overcomplicate things. For more on this topic, check out our recent Thunder Trading article: Overtrading Leads to Underperformance.

Stormrake Spotlight: Solana (SOL) ($216.31)

Since setting a new all-time high in November, Solana (SOL) has experienced four consecutive weeks of bearish price action, declining 20% from its peak. Despite this, Solana’s on-chain usage continues to surge. Total transactions have increased by 20% since its all-time high, highlighting the network’s resilience and continued adoption.

SOL remains a premier cryptocurrency, and this pullback could present a prime entry opportunity. If you believe SOL has the potential to surpass its previous highs, this discount is a no-brainer.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/99FLkXhR/

Bitcoin set another all-time high overnight at $107.8k, coming just $200 shy of our short-term target. This surge led to the formation of bearish divergence, resulting in a minor pullback as expected. The retracement found support at the 21EMA, and Bitcoin currently trades above this level, poised for the next bounce and an attempt at $108k. This $108k level is expected to act as a significant resistance.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 16 Dec: $ + 102.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/psz0kVCb/

Ethereum reached the key resistance level of $4,064 as anticipated but failed to hold above it. Since hitting this resistance, ETH has retraced to its current price levels, now trading below the 21EMA and eyeing a potential move toward the 55EMA. If ETH fails to find support at either of these levels, further downside to the 200-day moving average at $3,880 becomes likely.

Should this scenario play out, Ethereum would erase all the gains from the previous two days—an outcome that would not signal bullish strength.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 16 Dec: $ + 16.3 Million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox. Subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.