Stormrake - Insights #SonicStormrake - Insights #Sonichttps://www.stormrake.com/blogs/tag/sonicWed, 08 Apr 2026 18:20:37 +1000http://zoho.com/sites/<![CDATA[Sonic: The Comeback Layer 1?]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/sonic-the-comeback-layer-1Sonic was a top project last bull run but has disappointed badly this cycle, and now the stage may be set for it to finally outperform and live up to its potential.]]>

The Story

If you’ve been following crypto for a few years, you might remember Fantom (FTM). Back in 2020 during the “DeFi summer,” Fantom stood out as a blockchain designed to run smart contracts quickly and cheaply — a big advantage at the time, since Ethereum was struggling with high fees and slower speeds.

At its peak in 2021, Fantom attracted almost $8 billion in value locked on its network, putting it in the same league as blockchains like Solana, Polygon, Avalanche and Binance Smart Chain. Fantom’s price reached $3.46, giving it a market cap of $8.4 billion and putting it inside the top 30 crypto projects — bigger than Tron, Bitcoin Cash and Stellar back then.

But after that boom came the bust. When the crypto market cooled off in late 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin fell almost 80%, and most altcoins dropped by 95% or more. Fantom was one of them, falling to just $0.16. On top of the market downturn, Fantom lost its most well-known figure, Andre Cronje, who is often called the “Godfather of DeFi.” His early exit shook confidence in the project. Cronje is known for building Yearn.Finance, which went from a market cap of $2 million to $3 billion in under a year, so his departure had a big impact.

Eventually, Cronje came back with a plan to upgrade Fantom and keep it competitive. This led to Sonic, the new version of the chain.

By December 2024, the upgrade was live. Fantom’s price had recovered to $1.45 — up over 800% from its lows. However, since the switch, Sonic has struggled to hold that momentum and today trades around $0.33. The big question now is whether Sonic can find its spark again and return as a leading blockchain for decentralised finance.

What’s Happening Under the Surface

So, what’s really going on with Sonic? On the one hand, there’s a lot of positive activity. Developers from Fantom have moved over, and builders from other chains like Solana and Ethereum are now building on Sonic too. Andre Cronje’s vision was always to make a blockchain that’s fast, affordable and friendly for developers, and that part seems to be working.

When Sonic first launched, things got off to a rough start. Some big crypto exchanges described the upgrade as a “delisting” instead of explaining it as a planned migration. This confused everyday investors and created fear, which led to a big sell-off just as Sonic was starting out.

Despite that, the network grew quickly. Sonic’s total value locked (TVL) jumped from zero to over $700 million within a few months, even beating well-known chains like Sui and Avalanche in certain areas. By May, Sonic’s TVL was over $1 billion, putting it ahead of Polygon at the time. But the price did not follow. While other blockchains held their market value or grew, Sonic’s token stayed under pressure.

A big reason for this was the end of Sonic’s long-term relationship with Wintermute, a major market maker that helps provide trading liquidity. After this five-year partnership ended, Wintermute began selling millions of Sonic tokens. This added huge selling pressure and dragged the price down to around $0.30.

Source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/wintermute

Interestingly, Wintermute and other big holders have since started buying Sonic tokens again. This helped the price bounce back slightly. On top of that, Sonic did something Fantom never managed to do: secure a listing on Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the US. This is a big deal because it means better access for investors and potentially more trading volume.

Another positive development is Sonic’s new airdrop. The team launched a 200 million token airdrop to reward users for holding and using the network. Unlike many crypto airdrops, Sonic’s is designed to discourage people from immediately selling their free tokens. If you want to claim your tokens early, you lose a big chunk of the reward. The nine-month vesting period encourages users to stick around and stay active. Future airdrop rewards will also depend on how much you actually use Sonic’s apps, not just holding the token passively. You can read more about how the airdrop works here.

One thing many overlook is just how fast Sonic really is. Its blockchain can handle up to 400,000 transactions per second (TPS), which is huge when you compare it to other blockchains and even traditional payment systems.
For context, Sui handles about 297,000 TPS, Solana around 65,000 TPS, Arbitrum about 40,000 TPS, and Avalanche only about 4,500 TPS. Even Visa and Mastercard process far less, with around 24,000 TPS and 5,000 TPS respectively. When you see how fast Sonic is — yet its value and locked funds are still smaller than slower blockchains — it shows there could be more potential if this technology is fully put to use.

Where Sonic Stands

When looking at Sonic’s price chart, it helps to include Fantom’s older price history to get the full picture. Over the past five years, Fantom has seen major ups and downs that help explain where Sonic stands today.

After the Covid market crash, Fantom took off during the 2020 DeFi boom. In 2021, it hit an all-time high of $3.48. Then the crypto winter hit, sending the price down by about 95%. In early 2024, Fantom found its footing again, bouncing alongside Bitcoin before dipping once more near its cycle lows. This pullback lined up with a key long-term trendline that has acted as strong support for years.

That trendline, combined with a bullish signal called an engulfing candle, helped trigger a huge 500% rally over six months. After that, Fantom’s price moved mostly sideways through mid-2024, then rallied again during the US election period, setting up the switch from Fantom to Sonic. That rally marked Sonic’s current cycle high.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/LYpGmfrx/

Since the migration, Sonic’s price action has not been great. Apart from a brief bounce, it’s mostly been drifting lower. Many Sonic charts do not include the earlier Fantom price data, but this old data shows where important support levels still exist. Without it, the chart can look like Sonic has no real floor.

At today’s levels, Sonic’s price is still down about 90% from its 2021 high. For long-term holders, it has been frustrating to watch other coins set new highs while Sonic struggles. Part of this has been Sonic’s own challenges, but broader market factors like global tensions and economic uncertainty have made things harder too.

The good news is that some signals now look more positive. Sonic has once again bounced from that key trendline, which has held for four years. Another potential bullish engulfing candle has appeared, which can suggest a turnaround if it holds. This same pattern led to a big rally in 2023. With Bitcoin staying strong and some macro worries easing, Sonic may have the setup to improve in the second half of the year.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but traders watching Sonic see levels like $1 or $1.50 as areas that could be revisited if the crypto market keeps moving higher. A return to its all-time high at $3.48 would need nearly everything to go right, but even getting halfway there would be a major comeback.

What to Watch Next

Sonic’s story has been a rollercoaster. From huge gains to massive losses, and now a slow rebuild. The big reasons it struggled — from poor communication to unexpected big sell-offs — seem to have been addressed. On-chain activity remains strong, developers are building, and the new airdrop system encourages users to stick around and actually use the network.

Combined with its impressive transaction speed, Coinbase listing and key players buying in again, Sonic has a mix of factors that could help it turn the corner. This is not financial advice, but for everyday investors, it’s one to keep on the watchlist if you’re interested in blockchains with strong communities and lots of development.

Patience and good research are key, as always. The next six to twelve months will show whether Sonic can tap into its full potential and reclaim its place among the top projects in decentralised finance.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Fri, 04 Jul 2025 17:48:29 +1000<![CDATA[Bitcoin Breaks Out as Powell Turns Dovish]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/Bitcoin-Breaks-Out-as-Powell-Turns-DovishRisk assets climb after Powell’s unexpectedly dovish remarks.]]>
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Bitcoin has finally broken out of its 10-day consolidation range following Jerome Powell’s press conference this morning. As expected, there was no rate cut, and market reaction hinged entirely on Powell—who did deliver. Bitcoin is up 5% on the day, with altcoins rising even more.

Powell’s tone surprised most investors when he used the term "transitory" to describe inflation and suggested that the Trump tariffs are unlikely to have a long-term impact. The Fed is in a good position to "wait for greater clarity" on the Trump agenda before adjusting policy. The expectation among FOMC members is that interest rates will end the year between 3.9% - 4.4%, up from 3.6% - 4.1% in December. This implies only one rate cut, but both Powell and the market have pencilled in two by year-end.

While tariffs have been a key source of uncertainty and bearish sentiment across markets, the Fed does not expect them to last—viewing them as temporary. This is an extremely bullish signal for markets in the long term. When paired with M2 global money supply expanding once again, it sets the stage for sustained growth in risk-on assets.

Bitcoin is currently trading above $87K, eyeing a reclaim of $90K—a highly bullish outcome after weeks of negative sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index now sits at 49, a massive recovery from the multi-year low of 10 just a month ago. A key takeaway: sentiment has rebounded dramatically, yet Bitcoin remains at a similar price level to when extreme fear dominated.

At the recent lows, many were calling for Bitcoin to break further into the $70K region, with some even predicting a return to the $60Ks. But as it so often does, Bitcoin has defied expectations. Have we seen the bottom? Not yet—we're not out of the woods, but we're making strong progress.
The market has priced in a 100% chance that there will be no rate change tomorrow, so we shouldn’t expect volatility from the rate decision itself. However, 30 minutes later (at 5:30am AEST), when Jerome Powell takes the stage to answer questions and provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance, we can expect the volatility to kick in, and the market direction could be determined. We expect Powell to signal that the Fed will remain patient, avoiding any rush to make rate decisions due to the ongoing uncertainty and volatility stemming from Trump’s tariff policies. The tone of his speech will be key—if Powell adopts a hawkish tone, risk-on assets could continue to pullback, whereas a dovish tone could lead to a rally in risk-on assets. Powell’s remarks might finally break Bitcoin out of the week-long consolidation range it’s been stuck in.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.53)

XRP has had a massive 24 hours. First, the SEC lawsuit against XRP was dropped. Then, Bitnomial launched its XRP futures contract, marking the first-ever CFTC-regulated XRP futures product in the U.S. And finally, Powell’s dovish stance provided a tailwind for the entire market.

As highlighted in yesterday’s note, XRP needed to break above $2.47 to regain a bullish structure—and it has done exactly that. It has now flipped market structure bullish, reclaimed all major moving averages, and returned to the upper half of its broader consolidation range. With this momentum, a $3 retest is likely in the coming weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has broken through the key resistance level of $85.2K, confirming bullish momentum. If BTC sustains this rally, we should see a $90K retest soon. If not, $85.2K must hold as support to maintain the bullish structure.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 19 Mar: $ + 22.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Thu, 20 Mar 2025 12:06:13 +1100<![CDATA[As US Interest Rate Decision Approaches, Investors Shift to Risk-Off]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/as-us-interest-rate-decision-approaches-investors-shift-to-risk-off
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With the upcoming FOMC event tomorrow and the unpredictable Jerome Powell press conference that follows, investors are taking a cautious approach. The last 24 hours have reflected this risk-off sentiment, with the S&P 500 down 1.07%, the Nasdaq down 1.7%, the DXY (US Dollar Index) down 0.16%, and Bitcoin down 1.52%. It’s clear where the money is flowing: into the widely regarded ‘safe haven’ asset, gold. Gold continues to make new all-time highs, climbing another 1.1% yesterday, marking seven consecutive days of bullish closes.

We’ve been following the massive short position that has had the entire crypto market on edge. After growing to over half a billion dollars, the $520m position was closed yesterday evening, resulting in the trader pocketing a $1.1 million profit after funding fees. This closure underscores the uncertainty and risk-off environment we're currently in, leading up to Powell’s press conference tomorrow.
The market has priced in a 100% chance that there will be no rate change tomorrow, so we shouldn’t expect volatility from the rate decision itself. However, 30 minutes later (at 5:30am AEST), when Jerome Powell takes the stage to answer questions and provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance, we can expect the volatility to kick in, and the market direction could be determined. We expect Powell to signal that the Fed will remain patient, avoiding any rush to make rate decisions due to the ongoing uncertainty and volatility stemming from Trump’s tariff policies. The tone of his speech will be key—if Powell adopts a hawkish tone, risk-on assets could continue to pullback, whereas a dovish tone could lead to a rally in risk-on assets. Powell’s remarks might finally break Bitcoin out of the week-long consolidation range it’s been stuck in.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.29)

XRP remains in a similar position to yesterday, still trading between the CPR levels and just below the 21 EMA. It saw a slight pullback of 2.26% yesterday, following the broader market. For XRP to break its bearish structure, it needs to form a higher low above $1.89 and then create a new higher high above $2.47. Until that happens, the market remains bearish. However, at current levels, XRP presents an excellent dollar-cost averaging or buying opportunity for those with a long-term bullish outlook.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

The recent move back to the bottom of the range has shifted the structure from neutral to bearish. However, bulls have continued to provide buying support at $81.6k, the lower end of the range. BTC has since bounced and reclaimed three of its four moving averages. If this rally can be sustained, the momentum may shift back to the bulls.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 18 Mar: $ - 9.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Wed, 19 Mar 2025 13:33:45 +1100<![CDATA[The Bear’s Bet Grows to $520M]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/the-bear-s-bet-grows-to-520m
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A quiet start to the week, with no notable events shaking up the crypto markets—a welcome change considering the chaos of the last few months. Bitcoin is up 1.8% over the last 24 hours, with the rest of the market showing some green too. But what’s happening with the bear in the short position?

Yesterday’s morning note showed the bear’s position worth $460 million, sitting on nearly $6 million in unrealised gains. Today, the bear hunters are closing in. Not only has the bear increased the position size to $520 million, but it’s no longer in any unrealised profits. Instead, the bear is now down $122,623.13 in unrealised losses, with an average entry of $83,898. The liquidation level remains at $85,564—less than 2% away. Meanwhile, the funding costs for this position continue to mount and are nearing $500k. The longer this position stays open, the larger those costs will grow.

Bitcoin is still trading within the $81.6k–$85.2k range. It’s now been over a week since we first fell into this zone, with no successful attempt to sustain a move back above the top. Could Powell’s upcoming presser in a couple of days provide the breakout the market needs?

Altcoin News: Sui’s ETF Boost, Ethereum’s Sentiment Slump

One of our favourite altcoins, Sui, has received a spot ETF filing from Canary Capital, giving it an extra boost today—up 6%.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s sentiment has turned extremely negative, reflected in its price action. To make matters worse, Standard Chartered Bank has slashed its year-end price target for ETH by a massive 60%, dropping from $10,000 to $4,000.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.34)

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency is back in the Stormrake Spotlight… After a massive November rally, XRP has been stuck in a wide range between $2–$3, with only brief deviations beyond it. Currently, it’s trading in the lower half of the range, showing bearish momentum and a bearish structure.

XRP is facing resistance at the 21 and 55 EMAs, as well as key monthly CPR levels. If it can form a higher low above $1.89, it could be the first sign of bulls reclaiming control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has flipped momentum back to the bulls but remains in an overall neutral structure. A higher low was formed last night, but the rally that followed quickly topped out, creating another lower high—further reinforcing the neutral stance.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 17 Mar: $ + 105.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 14:14:34 +1100<![CDATA[Bear Hunting: Whales vs. the $460M Bitcoin Short]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/bear-hunting-whales-vs.-the-460m-bitcoin-shortIt's bear hunting season as whales attempt to liquidate a massive Bitcoin short.]]>
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Over the last 24 hours, we’ve witnessed a major bear open a massive leveraged position on Bitcoin. Initially, it was a $330 million short at 40x cross leverage when Bitcoin was at $84,040. This has now increased to a $460 million position, as the trader expanded their stake to avoid liquidation.

On the initial $330 million position, the liquidation level was $85,300, leaving little margin for error. Many speculated that this was either an insider trader with privileged information or simply a high-stakes gambler. At first, the bear was sitting comfortably in profit as Bitcoin dropped to $82,300. But then, the market struck back.

A group of whales banded together to force liquidation, triggering what could be called bear-hunting season. In just nine minutes, these whales managed to pump Bitcoin up 2.3% to $85,100—just $200 away from the bear’s liquidation level. The aggressive move left the bear scrambling, ultimately adding to their position to push their liquidation price higher.

Unfortunately for the whales, the bear survived by the skin of their teeth and is now sitting in even greater profit, as the market failed to sustain the rally and retraced downward.
*For those interested in tracking the trader’s positions live, check out the image and the link above.*

Bitcoin’s Range Holds Firm—For Now

Despite the volatility and bear-hunting drama, Bitcoin remains within its established range of $81K–$85K. While this massive bear short position makes it seem like the bears are in control, the bigger picture suggests neutral market conditions. However, this week could bring a decisive move.

The market is already bracing for the latest round of Trump tariff news, which seems to be becoming a frequent market disruptor. More significantly, all eyes are on Jerome Powell’s press conference following the interest rate decision on Thursday morning—an event that could finally push Bitcoin out of this range.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.52)

After five consecutive bullish days, Sonic has experienced a timely 9.90% retracement, meeting the 21 EMA. This pullback presents a key buying opportunity and a chance to dollar-cost average below a critical accumulation level.

Despite the overall bearish market, Sonic continues to dominate on-chain and exhibit promising price action—a strong sign for its future potential.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin remains range-bound between $81,600 and $85,200. The recent failed attempt to liquidate the bear is evident in a candle with an extremely long wick, which met the top of the range before rejecting sharply.

With Bitcoin now trading below all key moving averages, momentum has flipped back in favour of the bears.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 16 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum has now spent almost a full week consolidating between $1,797 and $2,019. Overnight, ETH saw another bearish flip of the 21 and 55 EMA, reinforcing downside momentum.

At present, ETH favours a move toward the lower end of the consolidation range unless bulls can reclaim key levels.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 16 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 14:08:55 +1100<![CDATA[Markets Post Best Day of 2025—Can the Rally Hold?]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/markets-post-best-day-of-2025—can-the-rally-holdWith no new tariff headlines and signs of progress in Russia, markets have rallied.]]>
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Seems as though yesterday was the first day in a while without any tariff-related headlines dominating the news, and markets rallied in response. Not only were there no fresh tariff developments, but progress is supposedly being made in Eastern Europe, with Trump stating he had "very good and productive" talks with Putin and that there is a "very good chance" the war will end.

Gold has broken $3,000 per ounce for the first time in history, the S&P 500 had its best day since November 6, and Bitcoin is up 4% on the day, taking it back to the topside of its range. The question now is whether markets can sustain this greenery.

Thursday morning brings another FOMC meeting and interest rate decision, with a 99% probability of no cuts. The real event to watch is Powell’s press conference afterward, where he’ll address the state of the economy, the impact of tariffs, and more. His tone—whether hawkish or dovish—will set the direction for the markets.

Trump’s Economic Strategy and Market Volatility

Trump's 2025 economic strategy embraces "short-term pain for long-term gain" as he seeks to refinance $9.2 trillion in U.S. debt maturing that year. By deliberately inducing an economic slowdown through tariffs, government job cuts, and policies aimed at lowering oil prices, Trump hopes to curb inflation and interest rates, making refinancing cheaper. This has caused immediate pain—over $5 trillion has been erased from U.S. stock markets and a near 30% decline in Bitcoin—but the long-term goal is to stabilise national debt and foster a stronger economy once rates decline.

As we’ve mentioned countless times, this bearishness is temporary and should be seen as a prime buying opportunity for Bitcoin and strong altcoins. The market will turn, and those who take advantage of these dips often reap the biggest rewards when the next bull cycle begins.

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said time and time again, these dips are golden buying opportunities. History has proven this true—and those who have acted accordingly have seen massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.52)

Sonic is up 30% from the low made just four days ago, bouncing perfectly from a bullish order block—another golden opportunity to DCA into your position. Yesterday saw another 9% gain, not only confirming a crucial higher low but also reclaiming a key accumulation level for S. Some immediate resistance lies at the 21 and 55 EMA, but the chart remains promising.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has rallied back to the top of the range at the key level of $85.2K, breaking above all moving averages and flipping momentum back in favour of the bulls. However, a clear break of this level is crucial—otherwise, the bears will have successfully defended it once again. Until BTC decisively breaks $81.6K, it remains in no man's land.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 14 Mar: $ + 37.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum remains in a prolonged consolidation phase but is showing signs of attempting to push towards the top of its range and reclaim $2,000 after flipping momentum back to the bulls.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 14 Mar: $ - 10.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 13:52:16 +1100<![CDATA[The Market Is Heavily Short—What Comes Next?]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/the-market-is-heavily-short—what-comes-next
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Sentiment across all markets is extremely bearish, as reflected in the sharp corrections seen across both traditional and crypto markets. The S&P 500 is down 10% from its all-time high set less than a month ago, while Bitcoin has dropped 26% from its peak in late January. This downturn is largely driven by the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs, which have heightened concerns over both political stability and macroeconomic conditions.

The graph below illustrates the five-day moving average of total US option put volumes over the past five years. Put options are contracts bought by investors who anticipate a decline in asset prices, allowing them to sell at a predetermined higher price to either lock in profits or hedge against losses. In short, put buyers are betting on markets falling.
Over the past month, we’ve seen a significant surge in put volume, now reaching a five-year high—eclipsing spikes seen during COVID, geopolitical conflicts, and recession fears. This is an unusual development, considering markets were hitting all-time highs just weeks ago. Today, however, we’re witnessing the highest level of put option activity in half a decade.

So, what does this mean for the markets? Well, with put volumes at extreme levels, the consensus expectation is that markets will continue to slide—sentiment is overwhelmingly fearful. However, when the majority of investors are positioned in one direction, the market often has a way of moving the other. As Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

This certainly looks like one of those moments. Extreme fear, paired with record-high put activity, could set the stage for a move that catches most investors off guard.

If the put buyers turn out to be right, then take it as an opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin at lower prices…

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Sonic is showing impressive strength despite broader market weakness. While Bitcoin is down 3% on the day, S is up 8%. More significant than the daily gain, however, is the fact that Sonic has bounced off a key must-hold order block and appears to have set a higher low on a larger time frame—an extremely bullish sign.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

After showing some promising signs, Bitcoin has fallen back below the key $81.6K level—the bottom of its range. This move has flipped momentum in favour of the bears and put BTC’s structure at risk. Given the current price action, a break below $80K looks more likely than a reclaim of $85.2K in the short term.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 13 Mar: $ - 79.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum remains trapped under the 21 & 55 EMAs, with every upside attempt being rejected—clear evidence that the bears are still in control. Until ETH can reclaim these moving averages, downside pressure is likely to persist. Expect a retest of the key $1,797 level in the near term.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 13 Mar: $ - 47.4 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 13:43:24 +1100<![CDATA[CPI Falls Below Expectations – Is Inflation Dropping?]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/CPI-Falls-Below-Expectations-Is-Inflation-Dropping
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Last night, we saw the monthly CPI data release, with Core CPI MoM forecasted at 0.3%, headline CPI MoM at 0.3%, and YoY at 2.9%. All were expected to decline from February’s readings—and decline they did, even further than anticipated. Core CPI MoM came in at 0.2%, headline CPI MoM at 0.2%, and YoY at 2.8%, all below expectations, signalling that inflation has cooled over the past month.

Will this trend continue, or will anticipated tariffs drive inflation back up?

Implications for Rate Cuts

What does this mean for potential rate cuts? With the upcoming FOMC meeting just a week away, the probability of no change was already at 97% before last night’s data. Now, it's up to 99%, with markets still anticipating the first rate cut in June.

Bitcoin’s Reaction to CPI Data

Bitcoin’s immediate reaction to the data was extremely volatile, spiking to $84.5K within the first hour of the release. However, as the market digested the figures, BTC retraced back to around $83K—where it had been trading for most of the previous day.

This event wasn’t inherently bullish or bearish for Bitcoin, but as expected, it brought volatility. BTC remains in a consolidation range between $81K and $85K, and a sustained break in either direction will dictate the trend.

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who have done so have reaped massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Despite a negative-looking chart, there are some positive signs for Sonic (S). The token is finding bids at the bullish order block, having fallen into it over the past three days but closing above it each time—a promising sign for what is a must-hold level.


If Bitcoin reclaims $85K, bidding S at these levels could be a golden opportunity—especially if the market turns bullish and S re-emerges as a leading project.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

On the hourly chart, Bitcoin is starting to show more signs of life, with a bullish cross of the 21EMA and 55EMA, as well as a higher high following last night’s CPI-driven volatility. A clear range has been established between the key support of $81.6K and key resistance of $85.2K.

Both levels are critical for bulls and bears—whichever side breaks first will determine the higher timeframe trend.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 12 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum remains stuck in its range between $1,797 and $2,019, with bears still in control. The 55EMA has been a persistent challenge, rejecting ETH for the third time in two days. Structure and momentum remain on the bearish side for now.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 12 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 18 Mar 2025 13:12:17 +1100<![CDATA[A 30-Day Ceasefire in Ukraine—Relief Rally or Bear Trap?]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/a-30-day-ceasefire-in-ukraine—relief-rally-or-bear-trap
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Donald Trump vowed to end the conflict in Eastern Europe on day one of his presidency—an obvious hyperbole—but expectations remained that he would resolve it far more efficiently than the Biden administration. Overnight, news emerged that Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, coinciding with the U.S. preparing to lift its military aid restrictions on the country.

This development follows last week’s highly publicized meeting between Trump, JD Vance, and Volodymyr Zelensky, which reportedly turned into a heated exchange. After the fallout, the U.S. pulled military aid from Ukraine, prompting concerns across Europe about a prolonged war—fueling a rally in EU defense stocks. However, a minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine was soon signed, signaling potential progress.

Bitcoin Reacts as Ceasefire Boosts Markets

Since the ceasefire announcement, Bitcoin has surged nearly 5%, climbing from $79K to $83K. If Vladimir Putin agrees to the ceasefire as well, it could serve as the macro catalyst markets need for a broader turnaround. However, this may be only a short-term relief rally—the real question is: what happens when the 30-day ceasefire expires?

Despite this temporary surge, the bearish grip on markets remains firm, and broader economic uncertainty suggests any rally may be short-lived. We’re not out of the woods yet.

CPI Data Incoming: Will It Spark More Volatility?

Tonight, fresh CPI data is set to drop, with expectations pointing to declines across all three readings—a potentially bullish sign. The data release at 11:30 PM AEST is likely to inject volatility into the market, possibly providing Bitcoin the boost it needs to break out of its bearish structure.

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who followed my advice have reaped massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Sonic is currently holding above the bullish order block, a key level to sustain a higher low. If Bitcoin builds on its recent momentum, this could signal a retest of its recent highs—a positive setup for Sonic.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin initially looked set to drop lower after rejecting the $81.7K level and the 55 EMA, falling to a low of $79K. However, the ceasefire news reversed momentum, pushing BTC to $83K.

Notably, the 21 EMA and 55 EMA are nearing a bullish crossover—the first since March 5. However, signs of bearish divergence suggest that BTC may face another pullback, reinforcing a lower high scenario.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 11 Mar: $ - 219.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum bounced from a key support level yesterday but was rejected at the 55 EMA following the ceasefire-driven rally. ETH remains weak, underperforming Bitcoin, and still looks bearish.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 11 Mar: $ - 9.8 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Wed, 12 Mar 2025 15:31:24 +1100<![CDATA[It’s Not Just Crypto—Global Markets Are Crashing]]>https://www.stormrake.com/blogs/post/it-s-not-just-crypto—global-markets-are-crashing
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Market sentiment is at its lowest in almost three years, with liquidations surpassing those seen during both the Luna and FTX collapses. However, unlike 2022, this isn’t solely a crypto crash—global markets are correcting.

Bitcoin is down 1.5%, falling back below $80K. The S&P 500 has dropped 2.7%, gold is down 0.8%, and even the US dollar is weakening. So, where is the money flowing?

A Repeat of the Yen Carry Trade Unwinding?

Cast your mind back to mid-2024 when the yen carry trade imploded, triggering a market-wide sell-off. Investors rushed to repay their Yen-denominated debts, liquidating US equities and other risk-on assets purchased through leveraged yen positions.

Could we be witnessing a similar move today? Possibly. Over the past two months, the S&P 500 and crypto markets have lost a combined $5.5 trillion in market cap. The S&P 500 is down nearly 10% from its all-time high set last month, while Bitcoin has dropped 30% from its January peak.

In January, the USD/JPY pair surged to 159, nearly reclaiming its 2024 high before the previous carry trade unwind. This rally was impressive, considering it had dropped to 139 after that unwinding. Since January’s high, the Yen has almost mirrored its July 2024 price action, increasing 8%, Yen bond yields have surged— the cost of borrowing Yen has increased significantly.

Now, assets acquired with borrowed Yen are declining, forcing investors to unwind positions. While it’s too early to confirm another full-scale carry trade unwinding, the signs are undeniable:

  • The Yen is strengthening
  • Japanese Government Bond yields are increasing
  • The USD/JPY pair peaked just before Japan raised interest rates (similar to July 2023)
  • Risk-on assets are falling, suggesting a scramble to repay Yen-denominated debts

All the hallmarks of a carry trade unwind and mass deleveraging event are in play.

Liquidity Will Return—Bitcoin Will Benefit

Despite these developments, as mentioned yesterday, global money supply continues to expand in an attempt to engineer a soft landing. Once conditions shift, excess liquidity will flow back into risk-on assets—especially Bitcoin. The play is simple: weather the storm by staying patient. The tide will turn—use these dips to accumulate more Bitcoin.

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who followed my advice have reaped massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Despite the broader market weakness, Sonic has outperformed most cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. While it’s down 1.53% on the day, this resilience is a strong indicator of its potential. Typically, altcoins suffer disproportionately in bearish conditions, yet Sonic is holding steady—a glimpse of the strength it may exhibit once the market turns.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has continued its decline, now breaking below the lows from two weeks ago, forming a fresh low of $77.4K. This move further cements the bearish structure, with consecutive lower highs and lower lows.

Our attention now turns to the previous all-time high from March 2024 at $73.8K—a critical level where we expect buying demand to emerge.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 Mar: $ - 41.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Ethereum has dropped to its lowest level since November 2023, continuing its pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

ETH has just tapped a key support zone, which may trigger a short-term bounce, but as long as broader market conditions remain bearish, Ethereum will continue to struggle.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 10 Mar: $ - 34.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

Disclaimer 

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
]]>Tue, 11 Mar 2025 12:33:20 +1100