Stormrake - Insights #Special Update

Bitcoin Creeping Higher on Weak U.S. Job Data

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 11:33:42 +1000

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Bitcoin initially took well to the news of lower than expected NFP Data, however this rally like most rallies since August 14th was short-lived. Gold on the other hand continues to act as a safe-haven hedge, printing fresh all-time highs again with a strong daily close, along with Silver still largely following in tandem. With Silver now hitting strong Monthly resistance at $41, we’ll need to pay close attention to see if any price pullback here is short-lived before pushing higher and trying to takeout the 2011 All Time Highs; or perhaps a somewhat steeper correction may be needed first before trying to break the $50 mark.

Similar to Bitcoin, both the S&P500 and NASDAQ initially took well to the news of weak US Job data, however those gains we’re quickly given back to the market - and then some. Both indices respectively took a 1.37% and 1.67% hit in the trading hours that followed after the news broke, although both are still holding price support levels and are seeing a modest bounce as of this moment despite the weekend sell-off. Markets ultimately remain uncertain with this type of volatility, with no clear short-term trend direction for the time being.

While Tariff uncertainty keeps rocking the boat, the good news is that the U.S. and Japan has come to an agreement on automotive imports. Trump signed an Executive Order over the weekend to reduce imports to 15%, cementing the July agreement between both parties. In return, Japan has committed to investing $550 Billion in the U.S. economy further solidifying cooperation between the two nations.

If price can keep the momentum up without giving too many of the intra-day gains away, it’s possible that the Risk-on rotation could be back, although moves higher need to see the bulls follow-through with continued buying in order to confirm a trend reversal back up in the short-term. Macro data keeps pointing to a FED rate cut mid-September; ultimately being a good thing for Risk-on assets long term. Until then, we’re looking for a clean and sustained push higher to boost market confidence short-term so that we can see a positive-sentiment momentum shift to get those juicy late-cycle pumps.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.218)

Source : https://www.tradingview.com/x/n1DY5KWP/

HBAR followed through to the downside with it’s bearish momentum cross as we predicted despite trying to get a pump with BTC, giving away a further 3% of it’s push into the previous support. With short-term trend confirmed bearish and rejecting off it’s previous support lows, the bears seem to have control until it can re-gain trend.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/UUswbVTI/

Bitcoin briefly pushed above $112K over the weekend, although it couldn’t sustain the Bullish momentum, giving way to a 2.80% correction shortly after. Buyers have stepped in again at $110,100, however again - BTC fails to push through $111,500. After falling back into our range between $109.5K and $112K, it’s clear more consolidation is required before deciding which way we go in the near future.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 5 Sep: $ - 160.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by James Ryan

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Quiet Day for Bitcoin, Loud Moves in Metals

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 13:37:23 +1000

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A smidge of volatility for Bitcoin, but it has ended up right where it started yesterday, still hovering around $108K. With US markets closed for the holiday, it was expected to be a quiet session for crypto, and that held true. There were no major announcements from the crypto space or the broader macro landscape that moved the needle.

Altcoins, however, were not as fortunate. Most continued their pullbacks, with losses of over 3% while Bitcoin remained flat. This highlights the vulnerability and bearish tilt currently weighing on the crypto market. Sentiment still leans cautious, with the Fear and Greed Index sitting at 46, reflecting a slightly fearful reading.

Even though traditional markets were closed overnight, last week painted a clear picture through price action in two key assets: gold and silver.

Gold has been leading the charge, notching a week-long green streak and gaining 3% over the last seven days. It now sits just 0.7% away from printing a new all-time high. Silver has joined the rally as well, up over 5% in the past five days, marking its highest level since 2011. The move in both metals signals a clear shift toward risk aversion and gives insight into where broader market confidence currently lies.

The key question now is whether Bitcoin will follow gold as a more defensive asset and push higher, or continue to drift under the weight of bearish sentiment.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.212)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/pSAjKT5U/

The breakdown continues, with HBAR down nearly 3% and heading toward its lower moving averages. A bounce is likely around the $0.20c area, which should offer near-term support.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/0pQCW5Yw/

Bitcoin attempted a move higher yesterday, breaking above key moving averages, but was firmly rejected at the $109.5K resistance level. It has since dropped back below those averages. Bulls are still putting up a fight, and a break above that resistance could mark the first real step toward reclaiming bullish momentum.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 1 Sep: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Seasonal Blues: Bitcoin Enters September Under Pressure

Mon, 01 Sep 2025 14:02:48 +1000

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A relatively quiet weekend across the board. Bitcoin held steady around $108K, while Ethereum moved less than 0.7% over the last two days. Solana is going through a slight pullback from Friday’s high and is down nearly 10% from the local top.

With US markets closed for the Labor Day weekend, volumes remain subdued. Once they reopen, we should be back to our regularly scheduled program. This week will be driven by US jobs data, one of the two key factors the Fed considers when setting interest rates. Both data sets are due on Thursday, one at midnight and the other at 10:30 PM AEST, so we can expect volatility to pick up later in the week.

September has a rough track record, historically the worst month for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500. While that does not bode well from a seasonal perspective, macro factors are leaning more bullish with rate cuts likely on the horizon.

If this month does turn out to be bearish, it should be seen as a prime opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin, especially with Q4 often delivering strong returns for risk-on assets.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.218)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/TrNf5sP3/

Disappointing would be an understatement when looking at HBAR’s August performance. It failed to build on July’s momentum, and bears have reclaimed structure and are now in control following the recent breakdown. Support sits at $0.20 where some buying should step in, but any meaningful recovery depends on Bitcoin finding a bid.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/x5SPJ0Zw/

Bears are still in full control. Each attempt to push higher is rejected at the 55 EMA, with price action turning lower again. BTC is now trading back below $108K with no signs of recovery for now. The key level to watch is $104K, a failure to hold here could lead to further downside.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 31 Aug: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Relief for Bulls as Bitcoin Stumbles Again

Mon, 01 Sep 2025 14:00:22 +1000

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Selling pressure has intensified across the crypto space, with bears maintaining control and sending Bitcoin and the broader market lower. There was a brief moment of optimism when Bitcoin flipped a key $112K level into support, hinting at a possible move higher. But the rally lacked substance, and bears quickly stepped back in. BTC is now trading even lower than it was before the relief bounce.

Bitcoin is down over 3.5% and back below $108K, Ethereum has slipped below $4,300, and even Solana is down over 5%. Still, SOL continues to look relatively bullish despite the broader market weakness. Over $500 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the crypto space yesterday, with the majority being longs, as fear begins to creep back in and the sentiment index drops to 39.

Bitcoin should remain the primary focus, but select altcoins like Solana and Hyperliquid have already been outperforming and may continue to do so once sentiment shifts. Q4 is historically a bullish period for Bitcoin and risk-on assets, so the seasonal tailwinds are worth keeping in mind.

More drama unfolded in the tariff space, as the US Court of Appeals ruled Trump’s global tariffs illegal. The ruling was released after the US session had closed, so it was not the driver behind the pullback in risk assets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed in the red. Shortly after the court decision, Trump posted that “all tariffs are still in effect” despite the ruling, which only adds to the confusion surrounding trade policy that has been in focus for much of the year.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.225)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/OeISUbkT/

HBAR dropped nearly 5% yesterday as bearish pressure continues to mount. Bears are firmly in control of the current structure. HBAR is now sitting on a key support level that has held for over a month. If bulls do not step in soon, a breakdown looks likely.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/U7oocKdf/

Bears are still in control. Lower highs and lower lows continue to reinforce the bearish structure. Each failed relief rally has been followed by a break of key support levels, keeping Bitcoin on the back foot. If bulls fail to sustain a rally here, the next leg down could take us toward $104K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 29 Aug: $ + 151.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Solana Leads, Chainlink Keeps Pace

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 13:37:37 +1000

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The past 24 hours have been relatively quiet on the Bitcoin and Ethereum front. Bitcoin remains range-bound around $112K, while Ethereum is battling to stay green today. Meanwhile, the broader market has found some strength. As expected and mentioned in yesterday’s Morning Note, Solana is leading the charge.

Solana continues to push ahead, while Chainlink has also found its footing again, matching Solana’s 5%+ rally yesterday. This comes on the back of news that the US Department of Commerce has partnered with Chainlink to bring government macroeconomic data onchain. A major step forward for crypto adoption, and importantly, a sign that legitimacy is extending beyond just Bitcoin.

While Bitcoin waits for flow to return, its traditional risk-on counterparts are showing strength. The S&P 500 has closed above 6,500 for the first time in history, and the Nasdaq now sits just over 1% away from its all-time high.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.240)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/uOcFsLhX/

HBAR continues to find support, with bulls stepping in around the $0.23 level and holding momentum away from the bears. August has largely been a month of sideways consolidation, but bulls will be hoping that September brings the breakout they have been waiting for.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/U7oocKdf/

Bitcoin has successfully flipped the $112K level into support and is now bouncing from this key zone. The short-term structure is showing higher highs and higher lows, with momentum shifting back in favour of the bulls. However, BTC is not out of the woods until it clears $117K with conviction.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 28 Aug: $ + 5.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Market Red, Solana Green

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 13:58:11 +1000

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On a day where most coins closed in the red, including leaders like Ethereum and Hyperliquid, one name stood out and clearly outperformed: Solana. Up over 4% on the day, Solana took the lead as capital rotated out of Ethereum, Bitcoin, and other majors into SOL.

This could mark the beginning of the next phase of altseason. Bitcoin had led for years. More recently, Ethereum took over, consistently outperforming the broader market. Over the last two weeks, Solana seems to have found a bottom against Ethereum and has started gaining clear momentum. This is a classic rotation and could be a sign we are entering the next stage of altseason, where newer majors like Solana and Hyperliquid begin to take charge.

Expect Solana to follow a similar path to Ethereum’s last few months. Ethereum regularly outperformed on red days, and now the same could play out with Solana. Its ecosystem is also heating up. Raydium and Jupiter, the two main decentralised exchanges on Solana, both closed up 6% yesterday, outperforming SOL itself.

As altseason progresses, we are likely to see more focused and project-specific rallies. The structure remains consistent with past cycles, even with new elements in play such as institutional demand, which was absent in previous altseasons.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.239)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/9qwlsoAd/

HBAR pulled back with the rest of the market, down just 1%. However, the bears continue to apply pressure. With consistent lower highs and fading momentum, a sustained close below $0.23 would likely hand full control to the bears and open the door for further downside.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/mi2nWmo0/

Bitcoin is still struggling below the key $112K level. This area continues to act as resistance, blocking any real bullish momentum and preventing a structural shift. Bulls need a clean break above $112K. If the level holds, a move back to $109.5K is likely.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 27 Aug: $ - 3.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Altseason Returns as Bitcoin Fades

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 17:18:00 +1000

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Cycle after cycle, we move into the altseason phase once Bitcoin begins to lose steam. As Bitcoin shows signs of exhaustion, funds rotate into large-cap altcoins and kick off a familiar shift in market leadership. There were questions in recent weeks about which stage of the cycle we were in, but it’s now clear we are in altseason. Bitcoin has had its moment leading the charge, but that dominance is fading as the bull run continues and attention turns to the majors.

The last week should have cleared any remaining doubts. Bitcoin dropped from $118K back below $109K, entering a bearish structure, while Ethereum and Solana remain bullish and continue to outperform. This rotation is textbook altseason behaviour. Solana and newer majors like Hyperliquid have now joined Ethereum at the front of the market. Hyperliquid is up more than 13%, Ethereum and Solana both gained 5%, while Bitcoin managed just 1.5% and is still struggling to shake off bearish momentum.

On the macro side, Trump has reignited tensions with the US Federal Reserve. He is attempting to fire Fed Governor and board member Lisa Cook, something that has never happened in the Fed’s 111-year history. Trump wants to replace her with an ally in an attempt to tilt the board in his favour and push for rate cuts. Cook has responded by suing Trump to prevent her removal. This only adds more pressure to an already volatile mix of inflation, political posturing and questions around Fed independence.

Historically, altseasons tend to happen towards the later stages of a bull cycle. They often run for a few months before the broader market enters a bearish phase. While it may not be the message most want to hear, the idea that we are moving closer to the end of the bull run is something that needs to be considered.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.241)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/epMyzkOM/

HBAR bounced off the 55EMA yesterday, up nearly 5% as it caught support from the moving averages. This has helped relieve some of the pressure it’s been under for most of the month. Momentum still leans bullish, but structure leans bearish. A strong breakout is needed to confirm the next move.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/nmIjUHD2/

Bitcoin has bounced off support at $109.5K and is trying to reclaim short-term bullish momentum. But the broader structure remains bearish unless BTC can break above the recent lower high at $113K. This bearish setup is specific to BTC. In contrast, major altcoins continue to post bullish structures.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 26 Aug: $ + 42.8 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Any Excuse to Fall…

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 17:15:48 +1000

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Bitcoin is back under $110K. Ethereum and Solana are both down 9%, with many altcoins seeing double-digit losses. The rally we saw following softer inflation expectations has fully reversed. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen over 6%, losing all the momentum it had built and now looking increasingly vulnerable to further downside.

It was a rough session overnight as US-China trade tensions resurfaced. Trump made headlines by threatening further tariffs on China, stating he would impose "200% tariffs or something" if China does not supply the US with magnets. He went as far as saying he could "destroy China." These comments weighed heavily on risk assets. Interestingly, gold also fell despite the risk-off tone, while the DXY (US Dollar Index) moved higher.

Right now, bears are in control of Bitcoin and most altcoins. However, Ethereum and Solana continue to show relative strength and still appear to be in the hands of the bulls. When this market turns around, these two are likely to lead the recovery while Bitcoin lags behind. Yes, this pullback is concerning, but it still looks like a pullback within a bull market rather than the beginning of a broader reversal.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.230)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/aBwezagT/

HBAR dropped 7% yesterday, with bullish momentum collapsing as the structure broke down. If Bitcoin continues to move lower, HBAR is likely to revisit $0.20, giving full control back to the bears.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Zpq1ADW5/

Bitcoin continues to grind lower, with every bounce attempt suppressed by the 21EMA. BTC is now back below $110K for the first time since early July and is sitting at the key support level of $109.5K. If this level breaks, we could see a move down towards $104K. There are no clear signs of bullish momentum returning just yet.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 25 Aug: $ + 82.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Whales Sell Billions in BTC as Altseason Gains Momentum

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 17:12:37 +1000

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Bitcoin has almost fully retraced Saturday morning’s rally, which was driven by Jerome Powell hinting that rate cuts are expected next month. However, the pullback hasn’t been mirrored across the wider crypto space, with Ethereum and Solana holding up remarkably well in comparison.

While Bitcoin is currently down nearly 4% from Saturday’s high, Ethereum hit yet another all-time high overnight, just shy of $5,000. Solana also remains strong, continuing to post higher highs over the weekend. This divergence reinforces where we are in the cycle. Bitcoin is looking tired, Ethereum is fresh, and Solana seems to just be getting started. It’s altseason.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to consolidate while other majors extend their rallies. This isn’t a signal to rotate out of Bitcoin entirely, but rather an opportunity to focus more on alts while they move. Once profits are realised in alts, rotating back into Bitcoin can be a powerful play.

Bitcoin traded as low as $110,680 this morning. Why? An old holder sold 24,000 BTC worth $2.7 billion, which caused the price to drop $4,000 within minutes. The selloff triggered major liquidations, wiping out over $300 million in leveraged long positions in under an hour. That address reportedly still holds over 150,000 BTC.

This wasn’t the only notable whale movement. Another large holder sold over $1 billion worth of Bitcoin and rotated part of it into Ethereum long positions on Hyperliquid. It’s another sign of the phase we’re in within this bull cycle.

The fact that Bitcoin reversed the entire Powell rally is obviously a concern, but the context matters. A whale selloff and rotation into alts is not a sign that the run is over. Bitcoin has already bounced over 2.5% from this morning’s low, showing strong demand from buyers. Absorbing a 24,000 BTC sale and moving to reclaim the drop is a positive sign.

Expect Ethereum and Solana to continue leading the market while Bitcoin consolidates. Once Bitcoin resumes its move, Ethereum, Solana, and other majors are likely to outperform in a big way.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.248)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/h1vOdOAX/

HBAR pulled back slightly over the weekend after a 9% rally triggered by Powell’s comments. The retracement has been healthy, and HBAR remains above the key 21-moving average. Holding this level would strengthen the bullish momentum and set the stage to retest the current lower high, potentially reclaiming bullish structure.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/TXJrGa5e/

The chart clearly shows the weekend selloff wiping out all gains from Saturday morning. Bears have regained short-term control. However, buying demand around $112K continues to show strength. The level absorbed a 24,000 BTC dump and has proven to be a critical area of support.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 24 Aug: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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Written by Alexandar Artis

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Safe to Say We’re Back

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 17:07:10 +1000

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Bitcoin is flying, Ethereum is up nearly 15% and finally at new all-time highs, and the rest of the market is looking very green and bullish. But why? One final key event overnight changed everything.

Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole Symposium. We expected this to provide some clarity on next month’s interest rate decision, but clarity might be an understatement. Powell said that a “shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting Fed policy.” That one line was all the markets needed. Rate cuts are now being priced in, and risk-on sentiment is back. Every major risk-on asset is up, reversing the bearish price action we’ve seen all week.

It came at the perfect time for Bitcoin. The bears were in control and threatening to break the longer-term bullish structure with BTC trading under $112K. But this rally has flipped the narrative. Bitcoin is now back in the driver’s seat at $117K, shaking off bearish sentiment and the flood of bear market calls that have dominated timelines over the past week.

Ethereum has broken out to a new all-time high for the first time in four years and now has its sights set on $5,000. The bears have paid the price, with nearly $500 million in leveraged short positions liquidated. The Fear and Greed Index has shifted firmly back into greed territory.

Stormrake Spotlight: Hedera (HBAR) ($0.255)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/75V502cE/

HBAR gained 9% yesterday, rallying alongside the return of risk-on momentum. It has cleared the moving averages and is now pushing to reclaim its bullish structure. That confirmation comes once it breaks above the recent lower high at $0.275. Momentum is strengthening, which is a great sign.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ecc1u88w/

The bulls are back in control of both momentum and structure following Powell’s speech. Bitcoin is now testing the key level at $116.8K. A clean break would flip it into support, setting the stage for a push back to all-time highs, potentially as soon as next week.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 22 Aug: $ + 175.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.