Stormrake - Insights #Tariffs Block

Risk-Off Rebound: Bitcoin Finds Bid as Macro Headwinds Mount

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 13:34:15 +1000

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It seems like every day brings fresh tensions—whether it’s tariff disputes between the US and the rest of the world or escalations on the geopolitical front. Over the past 24 hours, we’ve seen some progress between the US and China, with the pause on selected tariffs for Chinese goods extended until August 31. Still, Trump hasn’t forgotten his Liberation Day tariffs. His administration has drawn a hard line, giving countries until July 8 to finalise their trade agreements or face the reinstatement of those tariffs—just over 30 days to strike a deal.

Meanwhile, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to ripple through markets. A Ukrainian drone strike reportedly eliminated over 30% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers. Since the news broke, crude oil is up nearly 4%, natural gas nearly 7%, gold up almost 3%, silver over 5%, and Bitcoin has also shown strength. The market’s reaction underscores the growing realisation that a peace deal remains unlikely, with risk-off conditions setting in.

Jerome Powell’s speech today offered no clarity on tariffs or the rate outlook, leaving markets adrift. Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed budget—set to add $5.1 trillion in new debt—has stoked reflation bets and revived investor concerns over fiscal excess. The Treasury’s Bessent moved quickly to reassure markets, insisting the US will “never default” on its now $36 trillion debt load. In turn, Bitcoin has rallied as a hedge against fiscal sprawl and dollar dilution, with investors rotating into hard assets amid mounting uncertainty.

In the last 24 hours, Ethereum led the crypto charge, up nearly 3% and reclaiming $2,600. Bitcoin battled through bear pressure to close just in the green—up 0.20% after being down nearly 2% intraday. Market sentiment is turning upward once again. Just four days ago, the Fear & Greed Index sat at 50; now, it’s climbing at 64, suggesting investors are regaining confidence amid the pullback.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($402)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/jW9xknFX/

TAO bounced from key support and briefly reclaimed the 21EMA but has since slipped back below it. Immediate support now sits at the 200SMA around $400. Should this level fail, we’ll look to the $390 support zone for the next hold.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/CRpxZpmj/

Bitcoin retested the critical $104K support once again and held firm, now pushing into resistance at $106K. This area aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci level and a bearish supply zone that has rejected BTC on two prior occasions. If Bitcoin clears $106K and $107K, a move toward $109K and potentially new all-time highs is in play.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 2 Jun: $ - 87.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

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Bitcoin Finds a Bid as Trade Tensions Escalate

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 11:59:50 +1000

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A weekend dominated by tariff headlines and statements from key global figures saw tensions flare further between the US and China, while the European Union pushed back against Trump's sweeping 50% tariff on steel imports. Despite the geopolitical noise, Bitcoin shook off its recent bearish streak, closing both Saturday and Sunday in the green—a strong start to the month.

Trump’s across-the-board 50% steel tariffs have rattled even close allies. Both Australia and the EU have expressed strong disapproval, with the EU stating it “strongly regrets” the move and is preparing “countermeasures.” This comes just a week after Trump threatened a similar tariff on the entire EU, only to delay its implementation until July to allow for negotiations. Brussels argues that the tariff hike “undermines” ongoing efforts to reach a trade deal.

Meanwhile, the US-China feud continues to unravel any recent progress. Diplomatic barbs are being traded almost daily. China labelled the US as the “biggest threat” to regional peace and stability, while Pete Hegseth warned on Friday that China is “credibly” preparing for military action, calling the threat “imminent.” US Treasury Secretary Bessent accused China of withholding critical industrial goods, further fraying trade relations. Although both sides agreed to a 90-day tariff pause to negotiate, signs of progress are limited. Trump is reportedly planning a call with Xi later this week to break the deadlock.

Looking ahead, Jerome Powell— the man who moves markets with a single word—is set to speak tomorrow morning. Questions will likely centre on Trump’s tariff moves, recent court rulings, and the broader state of the US economy. With an interest rate decision due later this month, current expectations suggest an almost 100% probability of no change in rates.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($413)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Lfi64u3O/

Since Saturday’s Morning Note, TAO is up over 12%, rebounding cleanly from the $390 support level highlighted on the chart—a bullish signal showing strong demand at this key area. While TAO remains in a broader bearish structure, characterised by a series of lower highs and lower lows, the weekend’s bounce indicates the bulls are not done yet. A reclaim of the 21EMA, which currently acts as resistance, would open the door for a higher high and potentially flip the structure in favour of the bulls.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6vZ9ZwpY/

Bitcoin reclaimed the $104K level over the weekend, after briefly threatening a drop below $103K. Although momentum has shifted back to the bulls, BTC now faces resistance at $106K–$107K. A rejection here could see a retest of $104K and a continued drift towards $100K. However, a decisive breakout above this zone could set the stage for a move to $109K and a return to a bullish structure.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 1 Jun: (Data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Tariffs Stall Bitcoin's Bull Run

Sun, 01 Jun 2025 16:47:39 +1000

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May is drawing to a close, and it’s been a strong month for Bitcoin—multiple new all-time highs punctuated a bullish run. However, renewed tariff fears have resurfaced, casting a shadow over an otherwise positive month.

Over the past week, Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high just shy of $112K. But that momentum was abruptly halted when Trump announced sweeping tariffs on the entire European Union. Despite a pause being placed on their implementation, the damage to sentiment was already done. The market struggled to regain its bullish footing and has since continued its pullback—now down 7% from the highs. With fresh tariff headlines emerging overnight, this retracement looks set to continue.

Rising Trade Tensions and Tariff Escalations

Overnight, we’ve seen a flurry of announcements pointing to renewed friction between the US and China. President Trump has doubled steel tariffs—from 25% to 50%—and the rhetoric is intensifying.

US Trade Representative Greer labelled China’s behaviour “completely unacceptable,” expressing serious concerns over Beijing’s trade non-compliance. Trump followed up by accusing China of having “totally violated its agreement with us,” with reports suggesting the US is preparing broader technology sanctions targeting Chinese subsidiaries.

In what appears to be a total breakdown of recent trade progress, Trump declared, “So much for being Mr. Nice Guy.” This follows just two weeks after the US and China had struck a major tariff reduction agreement. Adding fuel to the fire, the US recently halted exports of chip software and jet engine technology to China, significantly escalating tensions.

What June Might Hold for Bitcoin

Historically, June has been a mixed bag for Bitcoin—bullish in six out of the past fourteen years. But this June is expected to begin under the shadow of intensifying trade disputes. Tariff talk, the increase in steel import duties, potential resumption of EU tariffs, and the growing rift with China will likely dominate the macro narrative in the first half of the month.

While these macro headwinds have clearly stalled Bitcoin’s upward momentum, the current 7% drawdown still qualifies as a pullback rather than a deeper correction—for now. As long as BTC holds the $100K–$101K zone, which is backed by strong demand, the larger bullish structure remains intact.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($370)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/PH92Kb3B/

TAO has fallen 11% since yesterdays morning note and has created a new lower low officially confirming a bearish structure. TAO must reverse and reclaim the key level that was $390 quickly, otherwise a sustained move below this level will likely send TAO lower. TAO will continue to follow Bitcoin and the broader market, so it will rely on Bitcoin to reverse.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/3E9Acr4F/

There’s currently nothing bullish about Bitcoin’s short-term chart—bears are firmly in control of both structure and momentum. BTC is grappling with a key support zone around $104K, though it's unlikely to hold. Attention now shifts to the crucial levels at $100K and the CPR at $101.7K. These must hold to preserve the larger bullish narrative.

The good news? There’s substantial demand in that lower range—offering bulls a fighting chance. But make no mistake, it’s shaping up to be a battle.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 30 May: $ - 185.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Tariff Whiplash: Court Reinstates Trump’s Tariffs

Fri, 30 May 2025 14:30:20 +1000

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Just 24 hours after the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked Trump’s tariffs—ruling them illegal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act—the narrative flipped. Today, those same tariffs have been temporarily reinstated. The Trump administration swiftly appealed, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington granted a stay, pausing Wednesday’s decision.

The plaintiffs have until June 5 to respond, and the U.S. government must reply by June 9.

This about-face only deepens the confusion that’s surrounded the tariff saga in recent months. And markets felt it. Bitcoin sentiment dropped 14 points, from a high of 74—on the brink of extreme greed—down to 60. The price slipped 2% on the day, but this wasn’t the only weight on BTC's shoulders.

The ‘Hyperliquid Whale’ Liquidation Hunt

James Wynn—a rising crypto personality on X with nearly 250k followers—has become infamous for his aggressive leverage trading on Hyperliquid. His account had ballooned to over $80 million in profit, earning him the nickname “Hyperliquid Whale.”

But his latest move—a 40x leverage long on Bitcoin, worth nearly $800 million—painted a giant target on his back. Adding fuel to the fire, Wynn tweeted that $80 million “isn’t generational wealth”, telling people to “stay in their lane” while he traded billion-dollar positions.

Source:https://hyperdash.info/trader/0x5078c2fbea2b2ad61bc840bc023e35fce56bedb6

The bears pounced. His long was entered when BTC was above $108K. In a coordinated effort, market makers and short-sellers began pushing price lower to trigger liquidation. The result? His PnL swung from $82 million in profit to over $14 million in losses—a jaw-dropping $100 million reversal.

Despite attempts to defend the position by increasing size and lowering his liquidation level, the bears pushed BTC under $105K, securing the takedown.

This is a textbook case in the dangers of leverage. Generational wealth can disappear in a single misstep. Those who bought spot BTC at $108K are sitting on a modest drawdown—Wynn, meanwhile, has suffered catastrophic losses due to leverage.

At Stormrake, we continue to advocate for spot exposure. It eliminates liquidation risk entirely. No margin calls. No sleepless nights.

Macro Meets Liquidations: Bears Regain Control

The confluence of macro uncertainty and a targeted liquidation event has put crypto markets on the back foot. Bears have reclaimed structure after BTC failed to print a new higher high and has now formed a lower low.

This is currently a pullback, not yet a full correction. But to avoid deeper downside, BTC must hold above $101K.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($405)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/5KLCNccC/

TAO has mirrored the broader market decline, dropping over 7% in the past 24 hours. It’s now approaching a key support level at $390. A break below that level would confirm a bearish market structure.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/y08DlZWN/

Following the break of the key blue support level, bears have clearly taken control of the structure, with a series of lower highs and lower lows confirming the shift in momentum. Immediate support now lies at $104K, while the critical level to hold is $101K. Should this level give way, a deeper correction could follow.

For the bulls to regain control, Bitcoin must not only reclaim all major moving averages but also break back above the key resistance level of $109.5K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 29 May: $ - 471.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Trump’s Tariffs Blocked by Federal Court

Fri, 30 May 2025 14:23:50 +1000

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The U.S. Court of International Trade has struck down Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, ruling they were unlawfully imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The dramatic trade measures—launched with Trump’s trademark fanfare—triggered short-term market volatility, but have now been rendered legally void. For contrarians, it was a chance to accumulate. As the dust settles, the broader takeaway is clear: even with Trump back in the Oval Office and executive orders flying, institutional checks still matter.

Bitcoin caught a brief relief bid on the ruling, but still closed the day in the red. With the courts blocking the tariffs, the real question is whether markets will still react bearishly to future trade posturing, or whether legal pushback has now been priced in.

BTC2025 Las Vegas: Political Power Meets Protocol

BTC2025 is underway in Las Vegas, and it’s not just crypto-native voices taking the stage. Bilal Bin Saqib, CEO of Pakistan’s Crypto Council, announced the country already holds Bitcoin and has no plans to sell—aiming instead to establish a BTC strategic reserve.

Vice President JD Vance also took the spotlight, delivering one of the strongest political endorsements for Bitcoin yet. He called for immediate passage of the market structure bill and pledged a Trump administration would “fire anti-crypto regulators.” Crucially, Vance rejected the idea that Bitcoin competes with the dollar, instead describing BTC as a strategic asset for the United States—with over 100 million Americans soon to own some. The message: institutional alignment is coming.

US-China: From Handshakes to Hard Lines

Just two weeks after a tariff détente between the US and China, tensions have spiked again. Overnight, the US ordered chip designers to halt sales to China, paused exports of chip software and jet engine tech, and began revoking visas of Chinese students allegedly linked to the Communist Party or studying in sensitive fields.

Quite the contrast from the 90-day tariff truce we saw earlier this month. Now the question is—how, and when, will China respond?

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($435)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/morZtWqT/

TAO lost 3% yesterday, slipping back below CPR support. But once again, the 21EMA is proving dependable, holding firm as short-term support. TAO remains stuck in a broad consolidation, though it continues to lean slightly bullish as long as the 21EMA holds. A push toward recent highs remains on the table.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GGQgn7UD/

Bitcoin bounced cleanly off key support, preserving the consolidation range it’s been in for nearly a week. The structure remains neutral, with a slight bearish tilt—momentum indicators are soft, and the 55EMA remains above the 21EMA.

Until a breakout or breakdown materialises, BTC stays rangebound. The next catalyst is what we wait for.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 28 May: $ - 48.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.