Stormrake - Insights #Tariffs

Risk-Off Rebound: Bitcoin Finds Bid as Macro Headwinds Mount

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 13:34:15 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

It seems like every day brings fresh tensions—whether it’s tariff disputes between the US and the rest of the world or escalations on the geopolitical front. Over the past 24 hours, we’ve seen some progress between the US and China, with the pause on selected tariffs for Chinese goods extended until August 31. Still, Trump hasn’t forgotten his Liberation Day tariffs. His administration has drawn a hard line, giving countries until July 8 to finalise their trade agreements or face the reinstatement of those tariffs—just over 30 days to strike a deal.

Meanwhile, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to ripple through markets. A Ukrainian drone strike reportedly eliminated over 30% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers. Since the news broke, crude oil is up nearly 4%, natural gas nearly 7%, gold up almost 3%, silver over 5%, and Bitcoin has also shown strength. The market’s reaction underscores the growing realisation that a peace deal remains unlikely, with risk-off conditions setting in.

Jerome Powell’s speech today offered no clarity on tariffs or the rate outlook, leaving markets adrift. Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed budget—set to add $5.1 trillion in new debt—has stoked reflation bets and revived investor concerns over fiscal excess. The Treasury’s Bessent moved quickly to reassure markets, insisting the US will “never default” on its now $36 trillion debt load. In turn, Bitcoin has rallied as a hedge against fiscal sprawl and dollar dilution, with investors rotating into hard assets amid mounting uncertainty.

In the last 24 hours, Ethereum led the crypto charge, up nearly 3% and reclaiming $2,600. Bitcoin battled through bear pressure to close just in the green—up 0.20% after being down nearly 2% intraday. Market sentiment is turning upward once again. Just four days ago, the Fear & Greed Index sat at 50; now, it’s climbing at 64, suggesting investors are regaining confidence amid the pullback.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($402)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/jW9xknFX/

TAO bounced from key support and briefly reclaimed the 21EMA but has since slipped back below it. Immediate support now sits at the 200SMA around $400. Should this level fail, we’ll look to the $390 support zone for the next hold.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/CRpxZpmj/

Bitcoin retested the critical $104K support once again and held firm, now pushing into resistance at $106K. This area aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci level and a bearish supply zone that has rejected BTC on two prior occasions. If Bitcoin clears $106K and $107K, a move toward $109K and potentially new all-time highs is in play.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 2 Jun: $ - 87.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

Bitcoin Finds a Bid as Trade Tensions Escalate

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 11:59:50 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

A weekend dominated by tariff headlines and statements from key global figures saw tensions flare further between the US and China, while the European Union pushed back against Trump's sweeping 50% tariff on steel imports. Despite the geopolitical noise, Bitcoin shook off its recent bearish streak, closing both Saturday and Sunday in the green—a strong start to the month.

Trump’s across-the-board 50% steel tariffs have rattled even close allies. Both Australia and the EU have expressed strong disapproval, with the EU stating it “strongly regrets” the move and is preparing “countermeasures.” This comes just a week after Trump threatened a similar tariff on the entire EU, only to delay its implementation until July to allow for negotiations. Brussels argues that the tariff hike “undermines” ongoing efforts to reach a trade deal.

Meanwhile, the US-China feud continues to unravel any recent progress. Diplomatic barbs are being traded almost daily. China labelled the US as the “biggest threat” to regional peace and stability, while Pete Hegseth warned on Friday that China is “credibly” preparing for military action, calling the threat “imminent.” US Treasury Secretary Bessent accused China of withholding critical industrial goods, further fraying trade relations. Although both sides agreed to a 90-day tariff pause to negotiate, signs of progress are limited. Trump is reportedly planning a call with Xi later this week to break the deadlock.

Looking ahead, Jerome Powell— the man who moves markets with a single word—is set to speak tomorrow morning. Questions will likely centre on Trump’s tariff moves, recent court rulings, and the broader state of the US economy. With an interest rate decision due later this month, current expectations suggest an almost 100% probability of no change in rates.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($413)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Lfi64u3O/

Since Saturday’s Morning Note, TAO is up over 12%, rebounding cleanly from the $390 support level highlighted on the chart—a bullish signal showing strong demand at this key area. While TAO remains in a broader bearish structure, characterised by a series of lower highs and lower lows, the weekend’s bounce indicates the bulls are not done yet. A reclaim of the 21EMA, which currently acts as resistance, would open the door for a higher high and potentially flip the structure in favour of the bulls.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6vZ9ZwpY/

Bitcoin reclaimed the $104K level over the weekend, after briefly threatening a drop below $103K. Although momentum has shifted back to the bulls, BTC now faces resistance at $106K–$107K. A rejection here could see a retest of $104K and a continued drift towards $100K. However, a decisive breakout above this zone could set the stage for a move to $109K and a return to a bullish structure.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 1 Jun: (Data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Tariffs Stall Bitcoin's Bull Run

Sun, 01 Jun 2025 16:47:39 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

May is drawing to a close, and it’s been a strong month for Bitcoin—multiple new all-time highs punctuated a bullish run. However, renewed tariff fears have resurfaced, casting a shadow over an otherwise positive month.

Over the past week, Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high just shy of $112K. But that momentum was abruptly halted when Trump announced sweeping tariffs on the entire European Union. Despite a pause being placed on their implementation, the damage to sentiment was already done. The market struggled to regain its bullish footing and has since continued its pullback—now down 7% from the highs. With fresh tariff headlines emerging overnight, this retracement looks set to continue.

Rising Trade Tensions and Tariff Escalations

Overnight, we’ve seen a flurry of announcements pointing to renewed friction between the US and China. President Trump has doubled steel tariffs—from 25% to 50%—and the rhetoric is intensifying.

US Trade Representative Greer labelled China’s behaviour “completely unacceptable,” expressing serious concerns over Beijing’s trade non-compliance. Trump followed up by accusing China of having “totally violated its agreement with us,” with reports suggesting the US is preparing broader technology sanctions targeting Chinese subsidiaries.

In what appears to be a total breakdown of recent trade progress, Trump declared, “So much for being Mr. Nice Guy.” This follows just two weeks after the US and China had struck a major tariff reduction agreement. Adding fuel to the fire, the US recently halted exports of chip software and jet engine technology to China, significantly escalating tensions.

What June Might Hold for Bitcoin

Historically, June has been a mixed bag for Bitcoin—bullish in six out of the past fourteen years. But this June is expected to begin under the shadow of intensifying trade disputes. Tariff talk, the increase in steel import duties, potential resumption of EU tariffs, and the growing rift with China will likely dominate the macro narrative in the first half of the month.

While these macro headwinds have clearly stalled Bitcoin’s upward momentum, the current 7% drawdown still qualifies as a pullback rather than a deeper correction—for now. As long as BTC holds the $100K–$101K zone, which is backed by strong demand, the larger bullish structure remains intact.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($370)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/PH92Kb3B/

TAO has fallen 11% since yesterdays morning note and has created a new lower low officially confirming a bearish structure. TAO must reverse and reclaim the key level that was $390 quickly, otherwise a sustained move below this level will likely send TAO lower. TAO will continue to follow Bitcoin and the broader market, so it will rely on Bitcoin to reverse.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/3E9Acr4F/

There’s currently nothing bullish about Bitcoin’s short-term chart—bears are firmly in control of both structure and momentum. BTC is grappling with a key support zone around $104K, though it's unlikely to hold. Attention now shifts to the crucial levels at $100K and the CPR at $101.7K. These must hold to preserve the larger bullish narrative.

The good news? There’s substantial demand in that lower range—offering bulls a fighting chance. But make no mistake, it’s shaping up to be a battle.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 30 May: $ - 185.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Tariff Whiplash: Court Reinstates Trump’s Tariffs

Fri, 30 May 2025 14:30:20 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Just 24 hours after the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked Trump’s tariffs—ruling them illegal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act—the narrative flipped. Today, those same tariffs have been temporarily reinstated. The Trump administration swiftly appealed, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington granted a stay, pausing Wednesday’s decision.

The plaintiffs have until June 5 to respond, and the U.S. government must reply by June 9.

This about-face only deepens the confusion that’s surrounded the tariff saga in recent months. And markets felt it. Bitcoin sentiment dropped 14 points, from a high of 74—on the brink of extreme greed—down to 60. The price slipped 2% on the day, but this wasn’t the only weight on BTC's shoulders.

The ‘Hyperliquid Whale’ Liquidation Hunt

James Wynn—a rising crypto personality on X with nearly 250k followers—has become infamous for his aggressive leverage trading on Hyperliquid. His account had ballooned to over $80 million in profit, earning him the nickname “Hyperliquid Whale.”

But his latest move—a 40x leverage long on Bitcoin, worth nearly $800 million—painted a giant target on his back. Adding fuel to the fire, Wynn tweeted that $80 million “isn’t generational wealth”, telling people to “stay in their lane” while he traded billion-dollar positions.

Source:https://hyperdash.info/trader/0x5078c2fbea2b2ad61bc840bc023e35fce56bedb6

The bears pounced. His long was entered when BTC was above $108K. In a coordinated effort, market makers and short-sellers began pushing price lower to trigger liquidation. The result? His PnL swung from $82 million in profit to over $14 million in losses—a jaw-dropping $100 million reversal.

Despite attempts to defend the position by increasing size and lowering his liquidation level, the bears pushed BTC under $105K, securing the takedown.

This is a textbook case in the dangers of leverage. Generational wealth can disappear in a single misstep. Those who bought spot BTC at $108K are sitting on a modest drawdown—Wynn, meanwhile, has suffered catastrophic losses due to leverage.

At Stormrake, we continue to advocate for spot exposure. It eliminates liquidation risk entirely. No margin calls. No sleepless nights.

Macro Meets Liquidations: Bears Regain Control

The confluence of macro uncertainty and a targeted liquidation event has put crypto markets on the back foot. Bears have reclaimed structure after BTC failed to print a new higher high and has now formed a lower low.

This is currently a pullback, not yet a full correction. But to avoid deeper downside, BTC must hold above $101K.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($405)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/5KLCNccC/

TAO has mirrored the broader market decline, dropping over 7% in the past 24 hours. It’s now approaching a key support level at $390. A break below that level would confirm a bearish market structure.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/y08DlZWN/

Following the break of the key blue support level, bears have clearly taken control of the structure, with a series of lower highs and lower lows confirming the shift in momentum. Immediate support now lies at $104K, while the critical level to hold is $101K. Should this level give way, a deeper correction could follow.

For the bulls to regain control, Bitcoin must not only reclaim all major moving averages but also break back above the key resistance level of $109.5K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 29 May: $ - 471.9 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Trump’s Tariffs Blocked by Federal Court

Fri, 30 May 2025 14:23:50 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

The U.S. Court of International Trade has struck down Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, ruling they were unlawfully imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The dramatic trade measures—launched with Trump’s trademark fanfare—triggered short-term market volatility, but have now been rendered legally void. For contrarians, it was a chance to accumulate. As the dust settles, the broader takeaway is clear: even with Trump back in the Oval Office and executive orders flying, institutional checks still matter.

Bitcoin caught a brief relief bid on the ruling, but still closed the day in the red. With the courts blocking the tariffs, the real question is whether markets will still react bearishly to future trade posturing, or whether legal pushback has now been priced in.

BTC2025 Las Vegas: Political Power Meets Protocol

BTC2025 is underway in Las Vegas, and it’s not just crypto-native voices taking the stage. Bilal Bin Saqib, CEO of Pakistan’s Crypto Council, announced the country already holds Bitcoin and has no plans to sell—aiming instead to establish a BTC strategic reserve.

Vice President JD Vance also took the spotlight, delivering one of the strongest political endorsements for Bitcoin yet. He called for immediate passage of the market structure bill and pledged a Trump administration would “fire anti-crypto regulators.” Crucially, Vance rejected the idea that Bitcoin competes with the dollar, instead describing BTC as a strategic asset for the United States—with over 100 million Americans soon to own some. The message: institutional alignment is coming.

US-China: From Handshakes to Hard Lines

Just two weeks after a tariff détente between the US and China, tensions have spiked again. Overnight, the US ordered chip designers to halt sales to China, paused exports of chip software and jet engine tech, and began revoking visas of Chinese students allegedly linked to the Communist Party or studying in sensitive fields.

Quite the contrast from the 90-day tariff truce we saw earlier this month. Now the question is—how, and when, will China respond?

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($435)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/morZtWqT/

TAO lost 3% yesterday, slipping back below CPR support. But once again, the 21EMA is proving dependable, holding firm as short-term support. TAO remains stuck in a broad consolidation, though it continues to lean slightly bullish as long as the 21EMA holds. A push toward recent highs remains on the table.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GGQgn7UD/

Bitcoin bounced cleanly off key support, preserving the consolidation range it’s been in for nearly a week. The structure remains neutral, with a slight bearish tilt—momentum indicators are soft, and the 55EMA remains above the 21EMA.

Until a breakout or breakdown materialises, BTC stays rangebound. The next catalyst is what we wait for.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 28 May: $ - 48.3 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Trump is buying $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin

Thu, 29 May 2025 08:48:32 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Overnight, Bitcoin briefly pushed back above $110K following the announcement that Donald Trump’s company, Trump Media & Technology Group, plans to purchase $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin. The intention is to build one of the largest Bitcoin reserves held by a publicly traded company. The acquisition will be funded through the sale of approximately $1.5 billion in the company’s common stock and $1 billion in 0% principal amount convertible senior secured notes—mirroring Michael Saylor’s playbook with MicroStrategy, which has famously used similar instruments to accumulate Bitcoin.

The news initially fuelled a breakout past the $110K mark, a level that had recently acted as resistance. However, the rally was short-lived, with sellers stepping in to push Bitcoin back into its consolidation range.

US Consumer Confidence Rebounds Sharply

After five consecutive months of declining consumer sentiment, the latest US consumer confidence reading surged to 98—smashing expectations of 87. This marks the highest level since February and signals renewed optimism among consumers regarding macro conditions and spending behaviour. It’s a bullish macro backdrop that could support risk-on sentiment in the coming weeks.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($448)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/jk9NCH7g/

Despite Bitcoin closing in the red yesterday, TAO demonstrated notable relative strength, gaining over 3%. Once again, it bounced cleanly off the 21EMA, a level that continues to provide solid support. This move also saw TAO reclaim the critical CPR level at $440. Holding above this zone is crucial for a retest of the $490 range highs. A successful breakout above $490 would confirm continuation of the bullish structure.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/kxHNhEwV/

Bitcoin has once again failed to hold above $109.5K—both a key CPR level and the previous all-time high. The rejection has pushed BTC back below the 21EMA and 55EMA, raising the risk of a bearish EMA cross and a potential shift in short-term momentum.

Immediate support lies around $108K–$108.5K, where the 200SMA and 200EMA converge. These levels provided a bounce over the weekend and remain pivotal. If they hold, another short-term higher low would be confirmed. However, a breakdown could open the door to a move toward the range low at $107K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 26 May: $ - 19.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

It's a Bitcoin Market

Tue, 27 May 2025 15:38:29 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Altcoins continue to lag while Bitcoin shows renewed strength, flirting with reclaiming all-time highs and pushing further.

Sentiment remains firmly bullish—but it’s predominantly bullish for Bitcoin. As the “risk-off” asset within the crypto space, Bitcoin is absorbing the lion’s share of capital flows. The recent European Union tariff debacle hasn’t just stalled price progress; it’s dampened sentiment across the broader market. With increased macro uncertainty, investors are less inclined to take on additional risk through altcoins, preferring instead the relative safety of Bitcoin.

This shift in preference is evident in Bitcoin dominance, which is steadily climbing and now nearing 65% once again. Meanwhile, the total altcoin market cap remains in consolidation, effectively waiting for Bitcoin to dictate the next major move. The Fear & Greed Index is sitting just one point shy of “Extreme Greed.” Despite Bitcoin’s recent bullish momentum, altcoins remain sluggish and secondary—no meaningful signs of an altseason on the horizon.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($428)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/KwKFApZ5/

Although TAO closed green yesterday, it was far from a convincing bullish session. Intra-day, TAO rallied as much as 7.70% before bears stepped in aggressively, slamming price back down and rejecting any breakout attempt. This highlights considerable resistance and seller strength at current highs.

From a structural standpoint, TAO remains bullish as long as it holds above the recent higher low at $390. However, any breakdown below this level would shift the tone quickly.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/KwKFApZ5/

Bitcoin is currently locked in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The $109.5k level has acted as strong resistance, repeatedly defended by the bears, while bulls are managing to maintain support at $106.5k.

This recent failed breakout attempt by the bulls suggests a leaning towards bearish structure. If bears succeed in driving price below $106.5k, it would mark a lower low, cementing the current lower high and confirming bearish structure in the short term.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 26 May: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Tariff Pause Revives Bitcoin Momentum

Mon, 26 May 2025 12:23:28 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Yet again, Trump has walked back on his tariffs that he just announced. Less than 72 hours ago, Trump posted on Truth Social that he is recommending a 50% tariff on the European Union set to begin on June 1. Halting all momentum the bulls had, Bitcoin was on the brink of setting another all time high before undergoing a near 5% pullback and altcoins drew down even more so.

This morning Trump has just announced a pause on these exact tariffs, claiming the President of the European Commission contacted him and request an extension of deadline, and Trump agreed, a pause until July 9, giving both parties time to negotiate.

Bitcoin immediately jumped 1.60% on the news, providing the bulls with some relief after negative impact of the initial tariff announcement. This sentiment was shared across risk on markets, with both S&P500 and Nasdaq futures up 0.78% and 1.01% respectively within the hour of the tariff pause. The weekend saw sentiment start to shift back to the extreme greed territory, going from 66 following Trump’s initial tariff announcement to 73 and just two points away from extreme greed.

Despite the pullback as a result of the tariffs, Bitcoin has just closed its seventh consecutive positive week, the longest streak since November 2023 which was eight straight weeks of positive price action. This slight pullback should be welcomed and expected, event after all this price action, Bitcoin is knocking on the door of $110k once again, showing the display of strength of Bitcoin.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($439)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/XxfOsGXn/

After sliding 10% on the back of the initial EU tariff news, TAO has rebounded over 5% since Friday’s close. It’s currently holding the 21 EMA as support and attempting to reclaim the key CPR level at $440. If bulls succeed in pushing through, another test of the $490 recent high could be on the cards.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GHpBbyvf/

Bitcoin has bounced alongside Trump's tariff pause, recovering from the lows and possibly shifting structure back in favour of the bulls. BTC is now sitting at a critical resistance level—the previous all-time high and the monthly CPR. To reclaim full bullish control, it needs a sustained move above $109.6K. A rejection at this level would likely see price revisit immediate support near $107K.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 25 May: (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Trump’s Tariffs Return

Mon, 26 May 2025 12:17:20 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Bitcoin was sitting pretty—on the brink of fresh all-time highs. Altcoins were green and breaking out. But it seemed like everyone had forgotten the major catalyst of 2025: Donald Trump.

Last night, Trump took to Truth Social, declaring he would recommend a 50% tariff on the European Union starting June 1, alongside a 25% tariff on all iPhones not made in the US. Markets reeled. Yields fell sharply as recession fears resurfaced, dropping 2% back under 4.5%. Recession odds spiked 7 percentage points, climbing back to 43%. Ironically, the drop in yields could only embolden Trump to intensify the trade war.

In the aftermath, US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that additional trade deals would be announced during the 90-day tariff delay period. This reversed the earlier yield drop, with the 10Y Note Yield climbing back to 4.50%—effectively undoing the intended downward pressure from Trump’s initial statement. But risk-on assets didn’t bounce. Instead, they suffered.

This has absolutely rattled markets, with risk-on assets bearing the brunt — particularly in crypto. Bitcoin dropped nearly 4%, while altcoins took a much heavier hit. Ethereum and Ripple fell around 5%, with many others down 8–10% or more. It was a drastic blow to altcoins. While a pullback in Bitcoin was overdue and arguably healthy, the catalyst—tariffs and trade war drama—makes it more concerning than constructive.

In the short term, momentum is with the bears, but structurally, the bulls remain in control. This dip should be viewed as an accumulation opportunity, particularly before the tariff noise fades (as it always has), and Bitcoin’s true price action resumes.

Sentiment Update: The Fear & Greed Index has fallen 12 points, retreating from yesterday’s 78 to 66, pulling it back out of extreme greed territory.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($422)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/hHykJQhI/

Like most altcoins, TAO was hit hard, tumbling almost 10% yesterday in the wake of Trump’s tariff headlines. It’s now testing the 21 EMA, attempting to establish it as support. With macro conditions driving momentum, TAO will follow Bitcoin’s lead—whether that’s further down or a bounce back up.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/RZh5bD54/

Bitcoin’s recent pullback from all-time highs was swift and sharp, triggered directly by the new tariff announcements. The momentum has temporarily flipped bearish, but BTC is now testing the 200 moving averages—a critical level that must hold to keep the longer-term bullish structure intact. A prolonged correction could place that structure at risk.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 23 May: $ - 219.1 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Another Day, Another All-Time High

Fri, 23 May 2025 12:33:39 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

The bullish momentum continued as Bitcoin posted another all-time high yesterday, coming just shy of $112,000. The new peak stands at $111,980. The broader market saw a sea of green, with altcoins beginning to outperform—finally putting a red day on the board for Bitcoin dominance after an eight-day streak of gains.

Sentiment has surged alongside price, with the Fear & Greed Index entering extreme greed territory at a reading of 78—the first time since January. Bitcoin is showing no signs of slowing down, even as traditional risk-on markets falter. The S&P 500 is down 1.61%, and US 30-year Treasury yields are climbing—conditions that have historically pressured Bitcoin. Yet the digital asset appears resilient, behaving more like a risk-off asset akin to gold. We began to see signs of this shift last month, with both Bitcoin and gold rallying during broader risk-off periods.

In a notable break from historical patterns, Bitcoin continues to push to new highs despite rising yields. The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.15%—its highest level since October 2023. Typically, such a move would weigh on crypto by raising borrowing costs and dampening risk appetite. As mentioned above, the S&P 500 dropped yesterday and now appears to be forming a lower high. Historically, Bitcoin has tracked equities closely—but this time, it’s diverging. The decoupling hints at a growing perception of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and fiscal instability, rather than just a speculative tech trade.

Cetus Exploited: The Largest DEX on Sui Hacked for over $200m

It wasn’t all green in the crypto space yesterday. Late last night, Cetus—the largest decentralised exchange on the Sui blockchain—was exploited, with over $200 million drained from its liquidity pools. The attacker managed to swap approximately $61 million into Ethereum before Cetus successfully paused the stolen funds. At present, around ~$162 million of the ~$223 million total has been frozen.

The crypto community quickly rallied in response. The Sui Foundation stepped in, and even Binance founder CZ offered support—reminiscent of his backing during the Bybit hack.

Crucially, the exploit was isolated to Cetus; the Sui blockchain itself remains intact and unaffected. Still, the market reaction was swift—SUI dropped 3%, while CETUS fell 30% from $0.25 to $0.16. Most Sui-based memecoins were hit even harder, with many plunging over 90% in value as panic gripped the ecosystem. Yet twelve hours on, prices began to stabilise, and the Cetus team’s transparent communication has helped to calm sentiment. Trust may have been shaken, but Sui proved its resilience—validators coordinated quickly, the chain never paused, and damage control was carried out in real time. No downtime. No panic. Extremely positive signs from the blockchain under pressure.

This isn’t the first major protocol hack the space has endured—Solana, Ethereum, and Fantom (now Sonic) have all faced similar events. Some projects recover, others fade, but the chains themselves continue. The same will be true for Sui. Whether Cetus retains its spot as the dominant DEX or not, Sui remains a premier blockchain that developers and users alike will keep building on.

Stormrake Spotlight: Bittensor (TAO) ($465)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/zGofzSm0/

TAO is up another 3.74%, quickly approaching its recent higher high. The bullish structure remains intact, and with Bitcoin’s strength providing tailwinds, TAO looks set to print new highs soon. Momentum remains firmly to the upside.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/YfxAUACG/

Bitcoin continues its powerful uptrend, clearing and holding above the prior all-time high. Price is consolidating above the 21 EMA and using it as a springboard to higher levels. The short-term target sits at $114.3K. Trend: extremely bullish—no signs of exhaustion.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 22 May: $ +57.6 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.