Stormrake - Insights #The Morning Note

Q2 2026 Outlook Breakdown - Part 3: The "Invisible Adoption" Phase

Tue, 12 May 2026 10:35:59 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

In part three of our Quarter 2 Outlook series, we look past the noise of daily price action to examine a major shift in how Bitcoin is actually being used. While the market is fixated on the $80,000 price level, an "invisible adoption" phase is underway. The Lightning Network is transitioning from a tech experiment into a vital piece of global financial infrastructure.

The Underlying Engine: Lightning Network

Bitcoin is increasingly becoming the “settlement layer” for the digital economy . Think of the Lightning Network as a high-speed express lane built on top of the main Bitcoin blockchain. It allows for nearly instant, low-cost payments while still using Bitcoin’s world-class security.

The real driver right now is the rise of AI. AI “agents” are now using the Lightning Network to pay for services automatically, sending tiny fractions of a cent back and forth without needing a human to click “send”. This is no longer just a theory; we have already seen institutional transfers of $1 Million settle in less than a second.

Why this matters for Bitcoin:

Consistent Demand: As AI systems grow, they create a steady, non-stop source of programmatic demand for Bitcoin.
Supply Lock-up: To make these fast payments work, Bitcoin is required as collateral within the network, effectively pulling BTC supply out of the liquid market.
Network Security: The total power securing the network (known as the hash rate) is near record highs around 900 EH/s, meaning the system is more robust than ever.

As machines begin to use Bitcoin for commerce, the asset is moving from being just “digital gold” to a structural necessity for the internet.

For a deep dive into the technology powering Bitcoin’s real-world utility, read our complete Quarter 2 Outlook 2026 report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,730)

The bulls look to finally be making their move above the 55 exponential moving average after climbing nearly 1% over the last 24 hours. However, this candle must be sustained and PAXG to continue higher otherwise a failure to break above this will see the bears strengthen their control.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin pushed back to $82k after the bears attempt to send BTC below $80k, but with the bulls in full control of the structure and momentum it was an easy and quick bounce from that key level.

Whilst BTC is comfortable above $80k and the moving averages, there is nothing to be worried about.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

Q2 2026 Outlook Breakdown - Part 2: The Yield Curve Fractal

Mon, 11 May 2026 09:47:31 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

In part two of our Quarter 2 Outlook series, we shift our focus from global liquidity to market structure. Understanding the relationship between short-term policy and long-term growth is critical for identifying where we sit in the current economic cycle. By analyzing the US 2-Year vs. 10-Year Treasury spread, we can map out a repeatable framework for Bitcoin’s price behavior.

Decoding the Yield Curve

Yield curve dynamics provide a reliable framework for understanding macro cycles. The spread between the US 2-year yield (policy expectations) and the 10-year yield (growth and inflation outlook) captures the health of the global financial framework. When this pairing steepens and short-term yields provide a higher return than long-term yields, it signals an “Inverted Yield Curve”, a warning that the system is under severe stress.

As yields rise, the cost of capital increases and liquidity is reduced, typically placing heavy pressure on high-beta risk assets like Bitcoin. However, history shows that Bitcoin follows a specific four-stage fractal in response to these shifts:

Stage 1: Initial Shock – Rapidly rising yields drive a broad risk-off move.
Stage 2: Stabilisation – Bitcoin begins to stabilize as investors reassess its role within the financial system.
Stage 3: Expansion – Anticipation of policy intervention triggers a breakout and accelerated appreciation.
Stage 4: Re-normalisation – Short-term yields fall relative to long-term yields as the market prices in recession, forcing a dovish central bank response.

Why the Fractal Matters Now:

Late-Stage Transition: Following the yield spike in early 2026, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, suggesting we are moving toward the later stages of this cycle.
Yields as a Leading Indicator: Bitcoin often responds to expected future liquidity. As rising yields increase pressure on debt markets, the probability of policy intervention rises.
The Opportunity: Any sell-off driven by yield re-normalisation may present incremental opportunities for positioning before the next expansion phase begins.

To see our full technical roadmap for the 2026 cycle, read our complete Quarter 2 Outlook 2026 report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,690)

PAXG is set to start the week with a major test of the 55 EMA which the bears have utilised to steadily reject every move up over the last month. This key moving average around $4,700 must be reclaimed by the bulls otherwise the bears will push PAXG back into the supply zone below.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is up 2% in nearly two hours as the bulls saw a strong bounce over the weekend from the 200 moving averages and look to continue higher as the day progresses. The bulls have strengthened their momentum and structure. We look for Bitcoin to continue deeper into the $80k region throughout the week.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Q2 2026 Outlook Breakdown - Part 1: The Great Liquidity Pivot

Fri, 08 May 2026 13:25:28 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Today marks the beginning of our Quarter 2 Outlook breakdown series. Throughout this series, we will be diving into specific sections of our comprehensive Q2 report to examine the key macroeconomic, geopolitical, and technical forces shaping the digital asset market. We begin by addressing the foundation of every market cycle: global liquidity.

Global liquidity remains the single most important driver of digital asset market cycles . While financial conditions have felt restrictive following the post-pandemic tightening cycle, the structural landscape has shifted in a way that suggests the worst of the liquidity withdrawal is officially behind us.

The M2 money supply, which reflects the total liquid capital within the financial system, has historically functioned as the primary catalyst for risk appetite. After a period of aggressive contraction, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening programme concluded in December, removing a major source of liquidity withdrawal from global markets. Furthermore, the decline of the reverse repo facility is effectively releasing liquidity back into the system. As M2 returns to its historical trend of expansion, it creates a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin, which has historically shown a high sensitivity to these broader monetary shifts.

Why this matters for Bitcoin:

Forward Looking Pricing: Bitcoin appears to be responding more to expected future liquidity than current conditions.
Systemic Pressure: Rising sovereign debt and interest costs are placing pressure on the financial system, conditions that have historically led to policy intervention.
The Opportunity: While conditions remain tight in the near term, the probability of future liquidity expansion is increasing as systemic pressure builds.

Bitcoin appears to be positioning within the latter phase of a bear market, where the risk-reward dynamics begin to favour long-term accumulation. As M2 money supply stabilises and capital begins to flow back into the ecosystem, we are watching for a transition from consolidation toward the next expansion phase.

For the full breakdown of how macro forces are shaping the next cycle, read our complete Quarter 2 Outlook 2026 report here.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,681)

PAXG is red on the day after being up nearly 1.5% intraday. As expected, the bears halted the push higher above the 55 exponential moving average resistance, a level they have defended aggressively for the last two months.

PAXG is rapidly approaching a decision point within a narrowing range; with resistance closing in on support, only one side can prevail. We will likely see a decisive breakout in the next couple of weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is down 2% on the day and has fallen back below $80,000, allowing the bears to regain short term momentum. However, the underlying market structure still favours the bulls.

This move is likely the necessary pullback before the next leg higher.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Bitcoin Rallies on Bad News: A Signal of Cycle Change

Thu, 07 May 2026 13:45:22 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

One of the most telling indicators of a market’s true health is not just how it reacts to positive catalysts but how it absorbs negative ones. In a textbook bear market, Bitcoin typically requires very little provocation to dump and is habitually slammed on any semblance of bad news. We saw this play out during previous cycles where macro deterioration led to a relentless distribution phase.

However, the script has flipped. Despite a continuous stream of geopolitical friction including fresh military strikes, the ongoing Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the collapse of weekend peace talks, Bitcoin has continued to climb throughout this war. This ability to rally on both bad and good news is a classic signal that the extreme bearishness has passed.

It is important to clarify that this does not definitively mean the bear market is over or that a new bull market has officially begun. While resilience in the face of conflict is a significant indicator, it is just one sign among many. There are still other complex factors that must be taken into consideration before calling the end of the bear market. We discuss these variables in depth within our full Q2 outlook to help you gauge exactly where we are in the current market cycle.

What is particularly notable in the current environment is Bitcoin’s independent strength. While oil prices surge and traditional risk assets push into record territory, Bitcoin is no longer just following the equity lead. Instead of breaking down under the stress of energy shocks or geopolitical uncertainty, it is holding structure and trending higher. This suggests that supply is being aggressively absorbed by strategic capital rather than forced out by fear.

Stormrake’s Quarter 2 Outlook:

To get a definitive gauge of where we currently sit in this market cycle, we encourage readers to check out our full Q2 outlook. We will begin breaking down the core themes of this report as the next Morning Note series. Stay tuned.

Full analysis: https://www.stormrake.com/insights/reports/2026-q2-outlook

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,685)

PAXG has bounced and exited the demand zone, up over 2.2%, but it now faces the resistance that has kept the bulls in check and suppressed every attempted breakout. $4,700 is a decisive price for PAXG. A sustained breakout should see the bulls regain momentum for the first time in months.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has continued to move higher as it was just shy of $83k overnight. It has since retraced to the moving averages which should likely provide some support, but even if they do not find a bounce here, the key support level sits at $80k. The bulls are in a very good spot.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

From Bubbles to Bitcoin: The Search for Undervalued Assets

Wed, 06 May 2026 10:27:45 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Nothing goes up in a straight line forever. Those who have been in markets for some time have most likely lived through some bubbles and major crashes. These events often occur when markets become too overheated and overvalued.

We have seen major bubbles and crashes since the turn of the century, notably the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008. Even those who were not invested during those periods have heard stories about the extreme overvaluation that caused those bubbles to pop.

One of the best ways to gauge this is through the Buffett Indicator, which measures the total value of all publicly traded stocks against GDP. Currently, this ratio sits above 200% for the first time in history, which is significantly higher than levels seen before the major crashes in 2000 and 2008. While retail interest has returned to equities as they hit all-time highs, many experts are warning that the AI-driven rally has made the index extremely overvalued.

However, smart money is not looking at overvalued investments.

Instead, they are looking at an asset that is up approximately 35% since February but still close to 40% down from its all-time high of $126k. Bitcoin is that undervalued asset. It remains in a drawdown yet has performed resiliently since the start of the Middle East conflict.

While stock markets are being inflated by AI and tech narratives, Bitcoin has begun to climb for a different reason. It is no longer moving purely in lockstep with risk-on markets. Instead, we are seeing a larger structural shift where Bitcoin is being used as a neutral settlement currency. As governments and institutions look for alternatives to fiat systems, smart money has been entering consistently over the last few months.

Are you positioned for the shift, or are you still chasing the peak of the equity bubble?

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,584)

PAXG has bounced once again from the moving average situated in the middle of the demand zone. Up nearly 1.5% over the last session, the asset is looking to move back out of this range as bulls attempt to mount a final stand.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has successfully flipped the resistance at $80k into support, which represents a massive achievement for the bulls. This level was previously a major target, and holding above it confirms a significant shift in market structure. The bulls now have full control of both structure and momentum, and they will be looking to push deeper into the $80k region as the weeks progress.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Race to Zero: A Fiat Inevitability

Tue, 05 May 2026 11:33:36 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Some things in life are just inevitable: death, taxes, Carlton leading at half time only to lose, or Bitcoin investors seeing green if they hold long enough. In global economics, the latest inevitable shift is the slow, steady decline of fiat currency toward zero.

Today we are discussing the Iranian Rial (IRR). Fiat currencies are often put against each other when it comes to measuring value and performance. With the US dollar currently being the global currency, it is the consensus measuring stick. However, we know fiat currencies are highly manipulated. This occurs not only through central banks printing money but also via external sanctions that can effectively ostracise nations from the rest of the globe. We have seen the Yugoslavian Dinar, Iraqi Dinar, Syrian Pound, and Lebanese Pound all collapse following conflicts and US sanctions.

The Iranian Rial has been on a constant decline for decades, a trend accelerated by the current Middle East conflict. The Strait of Hormuz has essentially become a toll booth where Iran accepts alternative payments, including Bitcoin and Tether, while excluding the US dollar.

The table below highlights the staggering devaluation of the IRR against both the USD and Bitcoin:

The columns on the right tell the real story. The devaluation of both the USD and IRR has been exponential when measured against Bitcoin since its inception.

This is a story of what is happening to every currency; all are in a race to zero against one another. If you substituted the Australian Dollar for the IRR, it would tell the same story, just at a slower rate.

When you measure fiat against Bitcoin, there is only one path.

So the question I ask you as the reader, where are you going to store your wealth?

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,522)

As the week started trading again, PAXG has returned back into the demand zone after losing nearly 2% to kick off the week. The bears continue to mount pressure on the bulls’ last meaningful support before $4,000.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

For the first time since January, Bitcoin has touched $80,000. This is the battleground. If the bulls can sustain a break above it, then the push into the deeper $80,000 region should be on. The bulls have full control of this short term picture.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Has the Narrative Arrived?

Mon, 04 May 2026 11:34:22 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Last week we mentioned that Bitcoin looked like it was waiting for a narrative to break that $80,000 barrier. It looks like it may be on the cusp of arrival following a productive weekend of price action and peace talks.

We saw Bitcoin fall back below $75k last week as we warned retail investors of the dangers of waiting around for lower prices. Meanwhile, smart money was taking advantage of every dip and pushing prices slightly higher on each move. This has been the case since the low in early February. It is fair to say that Bitcoin price action has felt boring and has not seemed to progress much, but in fact it has made substantial progress over the last few months. Bitcoin is up over 30% thanks to smart money buying the discounted prices while retail traders are waiting for a clear narrative to arrive.

That narrative may be here, coming in the form of a potential agreement within the Middle East. Yes, we have had a lot of fakeouts over the last month or so of failed peace talks, but in reality, this will be the narrative to give Bitcoin that kick back above $80k in the short term.

The key sign of the potential agreement is the oil price. The other day we mentioned oil prices rallying hard, with WTI Crude back above $110, but it has since fallen back below $100. US stock futures have opened higher and Bitcoin is making its way up too following the announcement by Trump that the US will guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

It is important to acknowledge that this conflict is short term noise and should not detract from Bitcoin’s true value or purpose. If anything, it has added to it and strengthened the case for Bitcoin as a neutral settlement layer. All it does is increase short term volatility and provide buying opportunities for those who have conviction for the long term. We are currently hovering a fraction below $80k. Whether the bottom is in for the cycle or not, those with conviction view these prices as generational opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin at major discounts.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,608)

PAXG continues to hover above the demand zone. As it was the weekend, there was little to no price movement, but the week ahead will be big for PAXG. It is likely we either see a strong bounce and flip momentum to the bulls or break below the demand zone and head towards the low $4,000s.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin reached a high of $79.5k this morning, but a sell off in the last hour suggests the bears are continuing to defend this level as they have done successfully two previous times.

The structure has been reinforced with the successful move up from Thursday's low which created a higher low. The bulls are in control and have every chance to retest $80k.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Illusion of Independence

Sun, 03 May 2026 10:32:30 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Whilst conflicts overseas dominated headlines, some key macro data was released this week and several central banks delivered their latest interest rate decisions. The landscape is shifting rapidly, and the updates from the world’s most powerful financial institutions should serve as a wake-up call for every investor.

Inflation’s Inevitable Climb

If you recall a couple of weeks ago, we covered the projection of Australian inflation reaching 6%. This week, we saw the first major step on that journey. Australian CPI numbers, the key inflation metric, have increased from 3.7% to 4.6% year on year. We are firmly on our way to 6%, and with oil prices continuing to rally due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, inflation will likely continue to rise. Brent Crude Oil is now trading at $120 for the first time since 2022.

Central Banks and the Risk to Independence

Three major central banks, Canada, Japan, and the United States, opted to maintain interest rates this week. However, it was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments during his rate decision that raised eyebrows. Powell stated that the Federal Reserve’s independence is “at risk” and noted that Middle East developments are contributing to a “high level of uncertainty”.

When the head of the world’s largest central bank admits the system’s independence is under threat, it highlights the structural fragility of fiat currency. The US national debt now sits at $38.5 trillion, and the path is, by Powell’s own admission, unsustainable.

The Case for Bitcoin

Why would you keep your wealth in a system where the architects themselves express concern over its stability? This environment reinforces the long term appeal of Bitcoin. Unlike fiat, which is subject to political whims and debt-driven devaluation, Bitcoin remains a neutral, permissionless, and resilient alternative.

As the dollar loses purchasing power through deliberate devaluation and rising debt, Bitcoin offers a “freedom of exit”. It is not just an asset; it is a sovereign technology that allows you to move wealth out of a cracking traditional system and into a global reserve layer that cannot be frozen or manipulated.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,621)

PAXG has bounced off the 200 moving average we pointed out yesterday as it has provided the support that PAXG has needed to get back above the demand zone. It is still bearish overall and can expect the downside pressure to continue.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin has bounced slightly over the last 24 hours but now comes into the moving average resistance. If BTC can break above these, then it will likely flip the momentum back to the bulls and start its next journey to retest $80,000 and solidify the bullish structure.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

Cryptocurrency transaction and custody services are powered by Zero Hash LLC and Zero Hash Liquidity Services LLC. When you enable Stormrake's digital asset services, you must also agree to the Zero Hash LLC and Zero Hash Liquidity Services LLC terms and conditions and enable your Zero Hash account. Cryptocurrency assets are held and custodied by Zero Hash LLC, not Stormrake IA Pty Ltd. Services may not be available in all states. Cryptocurrency assets are not subject to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or Securities Investor Protection Corporation coverage. The value of any cryptocurrency, including digital assets pegged to fiat currency, commodities, or any other asset, may go to zero.

Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved

A New Era for Stormrake: Our US Journey Begins

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 11:52:49 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

As April draws to a close, a new journey is about to begin. Not only does Bitcoin have the opportunity to solidify its bullish momentum, but Stormrake is officially launching in the US via our zerohash partnership.

What started as an arbitrage desk in 2017 evolved into a high touch brokerage service in 2019, born from years spent navigating a tumultuous space filled with inefficiencies. Back then, a lack of security, poor research, faceless exchanges, and negative sentiment dominated the industry. There was no human connection, and that is exactly why we built the brokerage you know today.

Fast forward to 2026, and we are now servicing over 10,000 clients. Bringing that same quality of service to the US, where over 70 million people hold digital assets, is the next logical step in our mission to deliver premium brokerage support.

Bitcoin’s Opportunity: Fear is Creeping Back In

Bitcoin is looking to achieve something it hasn’t done in nearly a year: closing a month up more than 10%. We saw price fail to push toward $80,000 over the weekend, and it has since retraced to key levels. May is historically a bullish month, and it may provide the narrative needed to finally clear the $80,000 mark.

As we mentioned recently, you do not want to be caught waiting for the narrative to hit; you want to be positioned beforehand. This recent pullback has caused fear to creep back into the market. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index was in neutral territory at 47 just a few days ago, but it has now dropped to 26, a fearful reading.

This is telling. A small pullback has many investors hesitant, but those with conviction are taking advantage of the pessimism. They are “cutting the line,” securing discounted Bitcoin before the hesitant participants are forced to buy back in at higher prices later.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,546)

PAXG is continuing to push deeper into the demand zone, losing nearly 1% over the last 24 hours. The 200 exponential moving average is currently providing support at $4,527, but it is unlikely this will hold given the current strength of the bears.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

The bears are taking full advantage of their momentum, sending Bitcoin lower. Price is now below $76,000 and is approaching a level of concern for the bulls. The highlighted zone sits just below $75,000. If Bitcoin enters this area and falls below it, the bears will have regained control of the short term market structure.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

The Natural Flow: Why Retail is Missing the Bitcoin Discount

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 13:54:43 +1000

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

Retail interest is beginning to creep back into the market, though it hasn’t quite reached Bitcoin just yet. Bitcoin currently sits roughly 5% below its recent local peak, yet it remains up 27% from the lows set in mid-March. This recovery has been largely driven by smart money accumulation during periods of extreme fear.

While traditional markets seem to be rallying to new highs daily, Bitcoin can appear forgotten. To put things into perspective, during the height of the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin was down over 50% from its all-time high, whereas the S&P 500 dropped less than 10%.

The current strength in the S&P 500 is fueled by the AI narrative, which has sparked extreme bullishness among retail investors. Data from The Kobeissi Letter highlights this shift:

Record Options Trading: Daily net call option purchases by retail investors have hit ~9 million contracts, the highest level since November 2025.
Aggressive Betting: This represents a 350% increase in retail “calls” (bets on higher prices) since the late-March low.
Historic Surge: This is the largest monthly increase in retail option buying seen in at least two years.
Euphoria: Retail sentiment is currently 33% higher than the average levels seen throughout 2024 and 2025.

The current dynamic is clear: smart money is focused on Bitcoin at discounted levels, while retail is flocking to traditional stocks that are already at or near all-time highs. This is the natural flow of markets. Smart money positions itself before the narrative goes mainstream.

Don’t wait for the Bitcoin narrative to arrive. By the time it does, price will likely be well above the key $80,000 level. Remember smart money isn’t defined by the amount of dollars in your bank account or assets you hold, it is a mindset. Ensure you adopt this mindset, your future self will thank you.

Stormrake Spotlight: Pax Gold (PAXG) ($4,585)

As expected, PAXG has fallen back to the demand zone after losing 2% over the last 24 hours. The bulls must step in here; if this zone fails to hold, we could see PAXG trade sub $4,000 over the coming weeks.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Bitcoin is down over 1.3% over the last 24 hours as it has fallen below all moving averages, giving the bears further control of momentum. Despite this, there is no immediate concern for the overarching bullish structure as long as BTC remains above $75,000.

To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/

*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

Create a brokerage account today

Get Started

No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.