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Bitcoin, BOJ Yields, and the Yen: The Next Financial Tug-of-War

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 16:49:57 +1100

Between the deluge of Japanese Bond Market volatility, yields spiking to highs not seen since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, a potential new Fed chairman and the re-opening of the US Government after the longest shutdown in history; we’re at a pivotal crossroad that’ll set us up for a monstrous 2026 and beyond. Bitcoin has seen significant volatility recently, both to the downside and upside in a very short period of time. While the uninformed and over-leverged investors have mostly been chopped up with recent price-action, we’re exceedingly pleased with how our clients at Stormrake have ridden out the waves of volatility with certainty and confidence knowing where all these short-term macro-headwinds take Bitcoin’s price in the long-run. Our long-term thesis for Bitcoin’s future hasn’t changed despite all the recent headlines and Crypto twitter doom-posting narratives that’re to be expected when people get flushed out at bottoms; not knowing the true value of what they’re holding. We’ve seen it during the 2017 bear market after the altcoin ICO bubble popped, also during the Terra Luna and FTX collapse of 2022. Once again, we’re cutting the wheat from the chaff while the market takes some time here to test the resolve of all its participants, both big and small bag holders alike. Those that remain steadfast with their pre-defined strategies and hold resolute to their future goals have always been greatly rewarded in time. Bear markets are where the future bitcoin millionaires are made, but as is the case with everything in life - nothing good comes easy. Patience and consistently by adding to position sizing has and always will be key to take full advantage of the opportunities that present themselves during this volatile time period. Understanding the macro-economic conditions, especially the Japanese Bond market and the potential strengthening of the US Dollar will play an important role in determining the direction and trend of risk-on assets such as Crypto in the short to medium term. Let’s take a look at how the Bond market is fairing across the pond in the land of the rising sun.

As Japanese yields are starting to teeter into all-time high territory, the market is reacting with bearish sentiment until this starts to un-wind. The yield spiking is a direct result of the direct selling pressure to offload treasuries given the somewhat hawkish pivot for Japan to unwind its Yield Curve control in the last few years and catch up with the rest of the developed world by having relatively higher rates to combat inflation.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/igmFGsxv/

This is particularly significant for global markets because Japan has long been a source of cheap credit. As the Bank of Japan moves toward unwinding its Yield Curve Control (YCC) and allowing yields to rise, it creates a ripple effect in global liquidity. The unwind of these policies reduces the availability of inexpensive capital for carry trades, where investors borrow in yen to buy higher-yielding assets in other countries. With rising yields in Japan, borrowing costs for these trades increase, forcing investors to deleverage and sell off risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. This tightening of liquidity puts downward pressure on risk-on assets, leading to heightened volatility and bearish sentiment across global markets.

Now apply that same principle directly to the strengthening US dollar versus a weakening Japanese yen. This is a systemic tightening of global financial conditions that directly impacts the appetite and capacity for risk, as opposed to a simple currency move.

A strengthening USD relative to the yen represents a deepening imbalance in the global funding system. For decades the yen has been the base currency for cheap leverage. Investors borrow in JPY at near-zero rates, convert to USD, and deploy the capital into higher-return assets: US equities, Emerging-Market assets, credit products, and increasingly Bitcoin.

When the USD strengthens significantly against the yen, the first-order of effect is straightforward: yen-denominated liabilities grow more expensive in USD terms, while USD-denominated assets must work harder to cover the same debt. This pushes leveraged players, especially carry traders, into a corner. They can no longer rely on exchange-rate stability to keep profits intact.

As the USD/JPY pair rises, anyone who borrowed yen to buy risk assets suddenly finds that the funding currency is weakening, and the asset currency is strengthening. In theory this sounds favourable, but only when the move is slow and orderly. A sharp or persistent USD surge tells the market something different: that liquidity conditions globally are tightening, that the Bank of Japan is losing control of yield compression, and that the probability of policy intervention or higher funding costs is rising. This is where the structural stress begins.

Another way we’re able to observe the structural decline of the Japanese Yen relative to the USD is simply by looking at the USD/JPY chart. This FX pair is one we’ve been eyeing for a number of years now and has proven to be highly effective as a barometer for broader market volatility, given its correlation to large macro-economic market swings for traditional markets.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/ava8fiXi/

The amount of confluence on this chart is quite staggering; not only have you got a breakout of a 25-year long accumulation breakout to the upside, an Inverse head and shoulders bullish pattern that successfully completed, along with another breakout that’s now launched straight into price resistance with ease, you’re also currently looking at price-action coil upwards - appearing to get ready for another significant push higher, of which there’s very little headwind resistance above. A third swing-higher here will be a large move and will likely maintain the Yen carry trade for a while longer as the USD appreciates in value compared to the JPY, which could potentially signal a green light for risk-on markets to keep printing higher, despite the rising BOJ interest rates. Naturally, at some point the BOJ will need to back-stop a depreciating Yen if it keeps losing value rapidly, however they’ll need to tread lightly as domestic Japanese wages are still very low compared to other developed Asian countries, and a rapid increase in interest rates like what we saw here in Australia over the last few years would likely ravage an already tepid Japanese economy. This is good for Bitcoin in the long term and plays neatly into our BTC strategy for 2026 and onwards.

Bitcoin has taken the opportunity to correct and retrace to some excellent short-term buying opportunities over the past few months since the October 6th all-time-high, coming in at a whopping $126,000 USD per Bitcoin. Whilst this price push was short-lived, we stayed vigilant in not buying into the emotional euphoria and remained level-headed in our risk approach towards the market. Only four days later after printing the all-time-high we saw the largest liquidation in Crypto history ever on October 10th; where over $19 Billion USD worth of forced liquidations occurred from over-leveraged buyers that were far too exposed to downside risk, likely chasing the wave and coming in too late to the party. This is why Bitcoin blew out over the two weeks prior to the liquidation, as BTC held our aforementioned $108K support in late September and then launched into a massive +16% in the following two weeks. Conservative investors were taking profits during this time as we correctly identified the potential risk of a Wyckoff distribution pattern forming - of which, has since come to fruition. This is how the pattern forms from a textbook example.

Now let’s see how Bitcoin’s Price-action compares…

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/STNqKz28/

This was a bearish setup and conservative positions have since been rewarded with lower prices to add to position sizing with steep discounts. We can see it mirrored the setup near perfectly, although it was missed by many external retail participants due to the late-stage bullrun mania. This is exactly why remaining cool, calm and collected when adding to position sizing remains one of the most underrated skills in investing - as opposed to getting caught up in the “one more pump” mentality which saw bandwagoners take unnecessary hits to their PnL. The two solutions to this problem that plagues 95% of investors is simple; don’t use leverage, and always dollar-cost-average down, rather than up. While Bitcoin is holding in a price channel currently, let’s strategise an optimal path and determine how price-action might progress from here over the coming months based on BTC’s historical performance from previous bear market cycles.

After the selling cascade which lasted throughout the month of November, we eventually saw BTC find its temporary bottom at $80,537 on November 21st. Since then, we’ve been range bound and in an upwards channel trying to break the mid-$90K zone without any success.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cJHnjHpG/

Whilst the bottom came in and has since held our weekly support zone between $88K to $86K, of where we anticipated a potential higher low - ultimately our predicted bounce from here was to be expected sooner rather than later due to seller exhaustion. This doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods quite yet. Headwind price resistance still plays a major factor as on higher time frames we still remain in a downtrend despite the current short-term grinding higher. This channel BTC is stuck in is known as a “Bear Flag” pattern; quite the opposite of the “Bull Flag” structures we saw Bitcoin doing consistently throughout 2024, which saw it continually breakout to the upside getting us to six-figure Bitcoin prices in USD terms for the first time in history. These Bear Flags as you might surmise tend to break to the downside given they’re a bearish structure. If we see another selling cascade over the coming months which validates the pattern, investors can expect to see Bitcoin running the low $70K price range where more significant liquidity resides before another bounce may come into effect. This scenario would be highly correlated with the previous bear market if it plays out.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/MtAeTLWC/

During that time, BTC initially sold off, commencing its bear-market at the end of 2021, with a Q1 rally slowly grinding higher within a bear flag-like channel over the course of 91 days, before eventually completing the bearish pattern by spilling to the downside. This coincided with the Terra Luna collapse of May 2025, sending BTC plunging hard and fast from $48K down to $17K, in the red over -63% over just a few short months until June 13th where it found more liquidity at the 2017 highs. Once here, it formed another temporary bottom providing relief to HOLD’ers, until FTX collapsed five long months later; widely considered a result of the brutality that occurred earlier in the year which started the dominos falling.

In saying that, not every current cycle is designed to perfectly mirror the last - whilst the market does rhyme, it’s not always a 1:1 recreation, meaning in this instance a more substantial short to mid-term pump very well could be on the cards if buying momentum maintains strong here, before we then potentially go lower, so long as the market does eventually give us some very juicy prices at generational lows at $70K or below. This intermittent rally can be common in the earlier stages of bear markets, and is known as a “Failure-to-gain” rally. This is because whilst we get a strong move up, it doesn't take out the previous highs - essentially meaning the market prints a lower high before continuing the downward trend into lower lows.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/IMCQXsZl/

Whilst at first glance this might seem like bad news, it absolutely isn’t. This type of market price-action gives both bulls and bears an excellent opportunity to capitalise off volatility, before getting even better long-term entries to add to their bag sizes before the next generational Bitcoin bull market begins. Volatility = opportunity, and seasoned traders/investors can make the most out of this brief window of time to ensure they’re on the right side of the trade at all times. When generation lows do come, if you’ve made the right decisions along the way, you’ll hopefully have the most amount of capital available to you at the bottom - then loading up the truck becomes much more viable as you can scoop up what little BTC supply is available then, given the asset will get even more scarce, whilst other retail investors likely wait until it’s too late to pile in again at astronomical prices. Getting ahead of the curve in a bear market is arguably even more important than during a bull market cycle. Consistency and patience is rewarded usually in spades for those that execute and keep increasing their position sizes, this will be paramount over the next 9 - 12 months. Don’t get caught out again, just like those that waited for sub $10K BTC in 2022, just to end up buying back in at all time high prices yet again…sometimes a price too low really is too good to be true.

In the coming months we’ll be looking at what viable generational low targets might look like, and depending on how price action behaves over the next few months, we will outline a number of likely scenarios using historical price performance to get a head start on strategizing what the next most optimal moves are for this market moving forward into the years ahead. One thing will remain unchanged; Bitcoin is extremely well positioned to take advantage of the aggressive repricing of global asset valuations currently taking place. Gold and Silver bulls waited nearly two decades for the current skyrocketing prices where long-term participants that remained steadfast in their positions for as many years are now quite easily doubling their position valuations every couple of months - and consecutively too, all in just a short span of time. Time in the market will always remain the single most important aspect to long-term investing, and that’s been proven true for Bitcoin from cycle to cycle over its 17 year long existence. The only tangible edge available to investors is execution: staying liquid, staying disciplined, and being able to act decisively when the market offers sublime windows of opportunity that close as soon as the market regains stability. That is exactly where Stormrake fits. When price is moving fast in either direction, we make it simple to accumulate, rebalance, or scale out with intent through a private, professional desk built for high-conviction decision-making. Direction is noise - but access, timing, and consistency are the best advantages for long-term success in this industry.

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.

Disclaimer

All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.

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When Leverage Fails Spot Prevails

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 09:29:57 +1100

Time and time again, investors attempt to beat the classic buy and hold strategy by either overtrading or, even more risky, incorporating leverage into their trading approach. Leverage can come in a number of forms, whether it’s options contracts, derivatives, copy trading, or algorithmic trading bots. But all carry significant risk when things don’t go to plan, and often, all it takes is one event to reset everything to zero.

One wrong trade, poor risk management, or even events completely out of your control can determine whether you succeed or get wiped out.

Most investors will experiment with leverage at some point in their journey. And for many, these moments become turning points. Even experienced investors aren’t immune to losses with leverage. The old adage still rings true:

90% of investors lose 90% of their capital within 90 days when trading with leverage. That statistic alone shows where the majority stand.

Yes, spot holders are also exposed to volatility, but without the looming threat of a margin call or total liquidation. They may experience drawdowns, but the position remains. It’s not lost, it’s simply fluctuating.

This Weekend: A Lesson in Real Time

Over the weekend, we saw a textbook example of how spot prevailed once again.

A record-breaking $20 billion in leveraged positions was liquidated as Bitcoin dropped over 15% within 30 minutes. Most altcoins dropped further, with some down more than 80%. Anyone with leveraged exposure, including via bots or derivatives, faced margin calls and forced liquidation.

Meanwhile, spot holders experienced the same drawdowns, but crucially, they’re still holding their assets. A Bitcoin holder still holds their Bitcoin. An altcoin holder still owns their tokens. That’s the difference.

Let’s explore three simplified scenarios: Where three investors make allocations on Friday (October 10), their portfolio valuations at the time of the liquidation event at 8:30am (October 11) and then their portfolio value on the following Tuesday (October 13).

Scenario A: $100K Spot Allocation into Bitcoin

Investor A allocates $100K into Bitcoin on Friday, purchasing approx. 0.45 BTC
Saturday 8:30am: Portfolio is worth ~$85K
Today (Tuesday): Portfolio has recovered to ~$95K

Investor still holds 0.45 BTC

Scenario B: $100K Spot Allocation into an Altcoin (SUI)

Investor B allocates $100K into SUI at $3.40 (approx. 30,000 tokens)
Saturday 8:30am: Portfolio worth ~$15K (SUI drops ~85%)
Today: Portfolio has recovered to ~$80K

Investor still holds 30,000 SUI

Scenario C: $100K into a Leverage Strategy or Bot

Investor C allocates $100K into a leveraged strategy or bot on Friday
Saturday 8:30am: Liquidated, portfolio value = $0
Today: Despite recovery in BTC and altcoins, portfolio still = $0

Assets are gone, position cannot recover

There’s a clear outcome here. Investor C was completely wiped out. Investors A and B, while facing drawdowns, are still in the game and positioned to benefit from any further market recovery.

The Stormrake Difference

Stormrake offers spot-only access to digital assets. We do not promote or facilitate margin trading, leveraged instruments, or derivative strategies. As a result, our clients were not impacted by this weekend’s record-setting liquidations.

Those holding spots through Stormrake remain in control of their portfolios and their assets.

If You’ve Been a Victim of Liquidations:

First of all, it’s not the end. Many have experienced the same. You’re not the first, and certainly won’t be the last.

But it’s what happens next that matters.

There are two types of responses to a liquidation:

1. "I’ll act differently next time."

A natural reaction. You may tell yourself you’ll manage risk better, exit positions faster, or tweak your strategy. But fundamentally, the risk remains the same. No one predicted this liquidation event, and there’s no reason to believe something similar or worse won’t happen again. In the current macro environment, where a single headline or tweet can move markets dramatically, risk management becomes even harder to execute reliably. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.

2. Learn and adapt.

The better path. Learn from the liquidation and reassess your strategy. Consider switching to spot positions, remove leverage from your portfolio, and take a long-term view. Avoid chasing short-term, promised returns and give your assets the time and space to grow sustainably.

Final Thoughts

The market delivered a clear message this weekend. Leverage can be lucrative, but it's also ruthless. And when volatility strikes, survival is the priority.

Spot holders ride through the storm. Leveraged traders often don’t.

Make sure you’re still in the game when the next wave comes.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Ethereum: The “Digital Oil” of the Modern Age

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 16:27:40 +1000

Since the last bull run in 2021, Ethereum (ETH) has undergone a quiet transformation. It is no longer just a smart contract plaƞorm for DeFi experiments and NFT collectibles – it’s steadily becoming the core infrastructure layer for stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), the bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and blockchain ecosystems.

This shift is ushering in a new era where institutions, governments, and fintech plaƞorms are turning to Ethereum for asset issuance, settlement, and liquidity. To put it simply, it is already reshaping the way global value flows across markets.

Ethereum’s Growing Role in Stablecoins

Stablecoins are digital tokens that track the value of fiat currencies like the US dollar. They are critical for crypto trading, remittances, cross-border settlements, and as a hedge against crypto market volatility. Among the vast number of blockchain plaƞorms available today, Ethereum remains the dominant home for stablecoins.

Major stablecoins like USDC, USDT, DAI, and PYUSD are primarily issued on Ethereum, taking advantage of its security, composability, and widespread developer support. In fact, more than 60% of stablecoin transaction volume flows through Ethereum’s mainnet or Layer 2s. Why? Because Ethereum offers the best blend of decentralization, scalability, and regulatory flexibility for stablecoin issuers and users alike.

Institutional adoption is reinforcing this trend. Visa has begun settling cross-border payments using USDC on Ethereum. PayPal’s PYUSD – their very own dollar-backed stablecoin is launched as an ERC-20 token on Ethereum. These moves highlight Ethereum’s role as the settlement layer for digital dollars, which could soon be the on-chain equivalents of real-world fiat currencies.

Tokenizing Real-World Assets on Ethereum

Beyond stablecoins, Ethereum is becoming the go-to network for tokenizing real-world financial assets, including but not limited to; U.S. Treasuries, private credit, gold, and real estate.

This trend, known as Real World Asset tokenization, or simply RWA allows traditional assets to be represented as tokens on a blockchain. These tokens can then be traded, borrowed against, or used in DeFi protocols. Ethereum’s security, smart contract flexibility, and mature infrastructure make it the obvious foundation.

A few high-profile examples include:

BlackRock’s BUIDL tokenized U.S. Treasury fund, which runs on Ethereum
Franklin Templeton’s tokenized money market fund, issued as an Ethereum-based token
Ondo Finance, which tokenizes U.S. Treasury yields and allows investors globally to gain exposure through Ethereum wallets

This movement turns Ethereum into a compliance-aware, globally accessible financial operating system - something that didn’t exist in TradFi or crypto just a few years ago.

What’s Changed Since the 2021 Bull Run?

Several key upgrades and ecosystem developments since 2021 have paved the way for Ethereum’s integration with traditional finance:

The Merge (2022) - Ethereum transitioned from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, cutting energy use by over 99% and aligning with ESG mandates, making it more palatable to institutional allocators.
EIP-1559 (2021) - Introduced a burn mechanism that removes a portion of ETH used in transaction fees, especially during high network activity. This has created periods of deflationary pressure on ETH supply, in-turn making it scarcer with better supply vs demand token-omics
EIP-4844 (2024) - Enabled proto-danksharding, which significantly lowers data costs for Layer 2 rollups, making Ethereum-based applications more scalable and affordable for users and enterprises.
Explosive Growth in Layer 2s - Networks like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base now host major stablecoin and RWA projects, thanks to lower gas fees and Ethereum-grade security. These rollups settle back to Ethereum mainnet, reinforcing ETH's position at the center.
Better Institutional Tooling - Solutions like Fireblocks, Chainlink CCIP, and KYC-enabled smart contracts have matured to meet the compliance needs of financial firms operating on-chain.

How This Affects ETH’s Price and Long-Term Value

Ethereum’s growing use as infrastructure is not just technical, rather it has clear implications for ETH, the underlying asset.

ETH as Fuel: Every stablecoin or RWA transaction on Ethereum or its Layer 2s burns a bit of ETH through gas fees, especially during periods of high activity.
ETH as Collateral: As stablecoin and RWA protocols grow, they increasingly rely on ETH for liquidity, governance, or backing.
ETH as Staked Capital: Institutions and individuals alike are staking ETH to earn yield, locking up supply and reducing sell pressure.

The combination of growing demand (for usage and staking) and declining issuance (due to burns and locked tokens) is seƫng ETH up for strong upward price pressure. Unlike speculative altcoins, ETH is building deep, real-world utility – now with institutional and retail investors noticing.

Ethereum Is Becoming the Internet Bond Layer

As stablecoins and RWAs move on-chain, Ethereum is not just keeping up - it’s becoming the standard. The network has evolved from a DeFi sandbox into the core infrastructure for institutional-grade digital finance.

This transformation means that ETH acting as both the fuel and the foundation of this new economy, it’s well positioned and quickly becoming the “digital oil” and reserve asset of a programmable financial future.

If Ethereum continues on this path, its relevance in global finance will grow dramatically, and in-turn so will the value of its native asset. Such as with ETH’s current price action, we just witnessed July give us an explosive rally over 65% from trough to peak for the month.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/WAIVuQm7/

From a low of $2,400 to a local peak just over $3,900, we’ve got the definitive confirmation that we needed on the charts now; the bottom is in. Trend has reversed back up with extreme buying volume, mostly consisting of Institutional ETF inflows, of which are breaking records daily now. Smart money is loading up the truck and they aren’t slowing down. Despite the recent liquidation sell off over the last few weeks, aimed at shaking out over-leveraged retail traders (a good thing), we are definitively now in an uptrend on all major timeframes, especially with that bounce overnight regaining local trend support.

In the short-term, we’re targeting a small retrace back down to $3,546 in order to keep building up support as we see things creep up higher.

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/FQnfQVDu/

I suspect once we tag this short-term trend support, it will give us the solid structure we need to start pushing the ever-elusive $4,000 resistance zone that ETH has been stuck under all Bull run, however this time, with the expected late stage liquidation sell-off behind us, and Bitcoin Dominance continuing to fall (as outlined in previous articles) the timing of an Alt season combined with ETH’s resurgence isn’t a coincidence. We strongly believe it’s time to break through the $4,000 barrier sooner rather than later and into new All Time High’s.

Exciting times ahead to be sure. Keep a close eye on the charts and keep an eagled-eye out for more of our incoming articles over the coming weeks and months, because this train is about to get certified crazy sooner rather than later! (in all the right ways!)

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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From Global War Tensions to Green in just 12 Days

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 16:20:07 +1000

What a wild couple of months we’ve had since our last article. There’s been no shortage of excitement in the market – to say the least! We’ve witnessed Bitcoin not only just break All Time High’s once again since the retail panic of April (well done Tarriff scalpers!) but we’ve now just speedrun a potentially devastating and prolonged conflict in the Middle-east. From Israel’s initial attack into Iranian territory, all coming to a conclusive yet miraculous ceasefire in a mere 12 days, now being coined the “12-Day-War” by the White House. Trump truly has quickly become one of the most influential and strongly mandated POTUS’ of our time. Not only is he leading America’s economic boom as we’re seeing asset prices resurge back to All Time High’s across the board despite some initial policy trepidation surrounding trade policy, but now we’ve got Donald “Daddy” Trump actually making serious inroads for the ever elusive notion for peace in the Middle-east, even if it comes at the price of “Kinetic Diplomacy” in the form of highly sophisticated Bunker Buster missiles and advanced stealth bomber capability on a strategically planned Sunday evening at midnight. Since then, we’ve seen nothing but green on the charts for Risk-on assets, signaling that despite the macro-uncertainty of the first half of 2025, we’re good to move forward now and finish off H2 with conviction and strength. Let’s take a look at how Bitcoin has not only survived but thrived throughout the last few months.

Bitcoin has kept maintaining momentum to the upside for the most part over the last few weeks since bouncing off our predicted major support zone around the mid-$70K range. Actually, as mentioned earlier, we saw Bitcoin briefly push to new All Time High’s once again for a few days, reaching a peak of exactly $112K before coming into the current sideways price action we’re currently in. Another stark reminder that it wasn’t even a month prior to the new highs that people were panicked about Trump’s Tarriff policies and many retail traders were in a perplexed state of “deep fear” as seen on the Fear & Greed Index. Not us however; we remained steadfast in our long positions and doubled down on telling our clients how this was a prime-time for loading up the truck and adding to position sizes. Those that took action have done exceptionally well in a short amount of time, as we knew back then that those exceptional market opportunities come seldom and remain few and far between. So why the sideways price action for the last two months then since the huge rally in May? To that, all I have to say is one word you’ve heard me repeat time and time again this cycle; Accumulation. This is nothing to fear, rather – again providing excellent opportunity for market participants to add to their positions, especially those that missed out on when we called bottoms back in April. Looking at the Price Action on the charts, we can in fact see we’re currently in the midst of another Bull Flag pattern and have been since late-May when we pushed the $112K high.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/CGhOb49p/

Not only is this a Bull Flag, but keen eyes and avid readers of my previous articles will notice a similar pattern of price progression; that being the ever-subtle yet exciting Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Two of these bullish patterns together provides excellent confluence and further signals the notion that the market lows are well and truly in, now with much more upside to come sooner rather than later. To further solidify the Inverse Head and Shoulders, we can see that it’s following a textbook “smaller right-shoulder” and has held steadfast when testing the strong support found at $98K.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/FRC6U6UI/

The strong bounce off this level happened exactly in the midst of Operation Hammer and the near-immediate ceasefire that followed shortly after. Just like I’ve outlined many times before, don’t follow the news narratives, rather look at the charts – they’ll tell you all you need to know. As a result we’ve seen a nice modest gain since then across risk-on markets, although we’re still within the broader accumulation range, therefore the opportunity for those still on the sidelines currently waiting to allocate further capital is still clear and present, however I doubt it will remain this lucrative for much longer now as the cascade of bullish price action and strong fundamentals narratives are ramping up to create the beginnings of a euphoric cacophony. Whilst Bitcoin remains on its historic tear despite all the macro headwinds, let’s take a look over and see how the altcoin market is doing.

The rest of the crypto market remains undervalued for the most part, yet all the top 10 majors appear to be in their own versions of an accumulation structure. Ultimately, market lows seem to be in across the board since the Trump Tarriff dip which was absolutely necessary and needs to be the case for the stronger Alt-assets to remain bullish for the remainder of the cycle, although we haven’t seen them break out of their aforementioned accumulation zones either quite yet. This means even for the major alts, the opportunity to buy low before moving higher also remains clear and present just like Bitcoin. Ethereum as the number #2 asset is still undervalued, yet holding its accumulation zone of support that we’ve outlined in previous articles. This is slowly but surely stacking the odds in its favor that there’s a lot more upside than downside risk from here on out. Holders almost always have their patience rewarded for holding in periods of “boring” accumulation periods such as this - just remember it’s not about timeframes; it’s about levels and trend. Trend is holding for ETH, so being bearish on it here in nominal terms is a massive counter-trade and usually these kinds of market participants that spread fear and “pile-on” an underperforming asset right at its market lows. Just like the Fear and Greed Index that we outlined in previous articles, if you counter-trade the sentiment of the masses, the odds are already in your favor. ETH/BTC is still above our projected must hold level, likely to keep increasing in the coming months. I believe this will align with when Bitcoin surges past the $112K high with momentous rise and slingshots to the next $150K target.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cXFjh6Ni/

Historically, these big moves later in the cycle become the perfect catalyst for retail trades who missed the earlier cycle gains in Bitcoin, who’re looking for the “next-best-thing”, and just has its done the previous two cycles, I believe ETH will still retain the #2 podium place for a while longer and will fit that criteria as a moderately safe play for many newer investors looking for an excellent deal. In contrast, let’s take a look and see how XRP is performing relative to its counterparts as despite the macro-headwinds of late, it’s maintained the top 3 podium position (excluding Tether) and appears to be well poised for an exceptional late-cycle rally.

XRP pulled back with the rest of the market exactly where we predicted, in-line with BTC’s pullback at $109K back in December. Just as XRP pumped with Bitcoin in December, and has pulled back in price during bitcoin accumulation correction since then. I suspect it’s waiting for Bitcoin’s moment to resurge with conviction well past those December highs in order to keep up the pace once again. XRP during this accumulation period has held our previously predicted major support level perfectly at the lows of $1.60 since April and has bounced off with conviction and momentum since. Despite the recent 12-Day-War turbulence of late, we can see XRP is still making Higher Lows, again - retesting the top end of our support channel at $1.90 and continuing to push to higher local prices. Although we haven’t made a confirmed local Higher-High just yet, we can see that XRP over the last few months has solidified its price support and appears to be forming one of our favorite patterns this cycle; the Bull Flag.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/COZi7pG3/

So long as XRP holds the green zone of support above the 2021 highs, then I see XRP only gaining momentum from here once Bitcoin has given the green light to the Altcoin market that the final “melt-up” phase of the Bull run is ready for liftoff.

As for the discussion on Interest Rates and the narratives surrounding monetary policy coming out of the FED, as of July 1st, Chairman of the Federal Reserve – Jerome Powell was clear that Interest Rates remain in a sort of proverbial “holding-pattern” shifting the reasoning for this towards Trump’s ever evolving Tariff policies. It appears the FED want more certainty surrounding economic data before pulling their one-and-only lever to maintain fiscal stability; the lowering of interest rates. Trump being the everenigma tic and comedic leader of the free world, naturally sends a handwritten letter to Powell stating “You are as usual ‘too late’. You have cost the USA a FORTUNE and continue to do so – you should lower the rate by a lot!” making sure there are no misconceptions on his stance towards relatively hawkish monetary policy under his Presidency. The FED being a self-governed body however don’t answer to the whichever POTUS is currently in power, therefore we’ll need to see if there’s any further headbu􀆫ng from here between the two as Trump’s economic roadmap for America’s golden-age does actually hinge on easily accessible capital and free-flowing debt to keep the Fiat-driven equity markets propped up and drunk on cheap money for consistent long-term growth in post-GFC world.

What we’ve witnessed over the last few months is nothing short of a masterclass in how markets respond not just to macro events, but to the sentiment and positioning that follows them. From the chaos of global conflict to the calming green of market recovery, we’ve seen how quickly narratives can shift, however the charts always tell the truth. Bitcoin continues to lead with strength, supported by classic bullish patterns, while Ethereum and the altcoin majors remain quietly coiling in powerful accumulation zones. The 12-Day-War, Trump's kinetic diplomacy, and the ongoing tension between fiscal and monetary powers have only fueled the urgency for smart capital allocation in this cycle. As we move deeper into H2 2025, the window of opportunity narrows. The charts are aligned, sentiment is cautious, and the setups are clear; those who remain focused and positioned now may well be the ones leading the charge when the next leg of the bull run ignites. The message remains the same - stay informed, stay patient, and stay in position.

Written by James Ryan

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Sonic: The Comeback Layer 1?

Fri, 04 Jul 2025 17:48:29 +1000

The Story

If you’ve been following crypto for a few years, you might remember Fantom (FTM). Back in 2020 during the “DeFi summer,” Fantom stood out as a blockchain designed to run smart contracts quickly and cheaply — a big advantage at the time, since Ethereum was struggling with high fees and slower speeds.

At its peak in 2021, Fantom attracted almost $8 billion in value locked on its network, putting it in the same league as blockchains like Solana, Polygon, Avalanche and Binance Smart Chain. Fantom’s price reached $3.46, giving it a market cap of $8.4 billion and putting it inside the top 30 crypto projects — bigger than Tron, Bitcoin Cash and Stellar back then.

But after that boom came the bust. When the crypto market cooled off in late 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin fell almost 80%, and most altcoins dropped by 95% or more. Fantom was one of them, falling to just $0.16. On top of the market downturn, Fantom lost its most well-known figure, Andre Cronje, who is often called the “Godfather of DeFi.” His early exit shook confidence in the project. Cronje is known for building Yearn.Finance, which went from a market cap of $2 million to $3 billion in under a year, so his departure had a big impact.

Eventually, Cronje came back with a plan to upgrade Fantom and keep it competitive. This led to Sonic, the new version of the chain.

By December 2024, the upgrade was live. Fantom’s price had recovered to $1.45 — up over 800% from its lows. However, since the switch, Sonic has struggled to hold that momentum and today trades around $0.33. The big question now is whether Sonic can find its spark again and return as a leading blockchain for decentralised finance.

What’s Happening Under the Surface

So, what’s really going on with Sonic? On the one hand, there’s a lot of positive activity. Developers from Fantom have moved over, and builders from other chains like Solana and Ethereum are now building on Sonic too. Andre Cronje’s vision was always to make a blockchain that’s fast, affordable and friendly for developers, and that part seems to be working.

When Sonic first launched, things got off to a rough start. Some big crypto exchanges described the upgrade as a “delisting” instead of explaining it as a planned migration. This confused everyday investors and created fear, which led to a big sell-off just as Sonic was starting out.

Despite that, the network grew quickly. Sonic’s total value locked (TVL) jumped from zero to over $700 million within a few months, even beating well-known chains like Sui and Avalanche in certain areas. By May, Sonic’s TVL was over $1 billion, putting it ahead of Polygon at the time. But the price did not follow. While other blockchains held their market value or grew, Sonic’s token stayed under pressure.

A big reason for this was the end of Sonic’s long-term relationship with Wintermute, a major market maker that helps provide trading liquidity. After this five-year partnership ended, Wintermute began selling millions of Sonic tokens. This added huge selling pressure and dragged the price down to around $0.30.

Source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/wintermute

Interestingly, Wintermute and other big holders have since started buying Sonic tokens again. This helped the price bounce back slightly. On top of that, Sonic did something Fantom never managed to do: secure a listing on Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the US. This is a big deal because it means better access for investors and potentially more trading volume.

Another positive development is Sonic’s new airdrop. The team launched a 200 million token airdrop to reward users for holding and using the network. Unlike many crypto airdrops, Sonic’s is designed to discourage people from immediately selling their free tokens. If you want to claim your tokens early, you lose a big chunk of the reward. The nine-month vesting period encourages users to stick around and stay active. Future airdrop rewards will also depend on how much you actually use Sonic’s apps, not just holding the token passively. You can read more about how the airdrop works here.

One thing many overlook is just how fast Sonic really is. Its blockchain can handle up to 400,000 transactions per second (TPS), which is huge when you compare it to other blockchains and even traditional payment systems.

For context, Sui handles about 297,000 TPS, Solana around 65,000 TPS, Arbitrum about 40,000 TPS, and Avalanche only about 4,500 TPS. Even Visa and Mastercard process far less, with around 24,000 TPS and 5,000 TPS respectively. When you see how fast Sonic is — yet its value and locked funds are still smaller than slower blockchains — it shows there could be more potential if this technology is fully put to use.

Where Sonic Stands

When looking at Sonic’s price chart, it helps to include Fantom’s older price history to get the full picture. Over the past five years, Fantom has seen major ups and downs that help explain where Sonic stands today.

After the Covid market crash, Fantom took off during the 2020 DeFi boom. In 2021, it hit an all-time high of $3.48. Then the crypto winter hit, sending the price down by about 95%. In early 2024, Fantom found its footing again, bouncing alongside Bitcoin before dipping once more near its cycle lows. This pullback lined up with a key long-term trendline that has acted as strong support for years.

That trendline, combined with a bullish signal called an engulfing candle, helped trigger a huge 500% rally over six months. After that, Fantom’s price moved mostly sideways through mid-2024, then rallied again during the US election period, setting up the switch from Fantom to Sonic. That rally marked Sonic’s current cycle high.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/LYpGmfrx/

Since the migration, Sonic’s price action has not been great. Apart from a brief bounce, it’s mostly been drifting lower. Many Sonic charts do not include the earlier Fantom price data, but this old data shows where important support levels still exist. Without it, the chart can look like Sonic has no real floor.

At today’s levels, Sonic’s price is still down about 90% from its 2021 high. For long-term holders, it has been frustrating to watch other coins set new highs while Sonic struggles. Part of this has been Sonic’s own challenges, but broader market factors like global tensions and economic uncertainty have made things harder too.

The good news is that some signals now look more positive. Sonic has once again bounced from that key trendline, which has held for four years. Another potential bullish engulfing candle has appeared, which can suggest a turnaround if it holds. This same pattern led to a big rally in 2023. With Bitcoin staying strong and some macro worries easing, Sonic may have the setup to improve in the second half of the year.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but traders watching Sonic see levels like $1 or $1.50 as areas that could be revisited if the crypto market keeps moving higher. A return to its all-time high at $3.48 would need nearly everything to go right, but even getting halfway there would be a major comeback.

What to Watch Next

Sonic’s story has been a rollercoaster. From huge gains to massive losses, and now a slow rebuild. The big reasons it struggled — from poor communication to unexpected big sell-offs — seem to have been addressed. On-chain activity remains strong, developers are building, and the new airdrop system encourages users to stick around and actually use the network.

Combined with its impressive transaction speed, Coinbase listing and key players buying in again, Sonic has a mix of factors that could help it turn the corner. This is not financial advice, but for everyday investors, it’s one to keep on the watchlist if you’re interested in blockchains with strong communities and lots of development.

Patience and good research are key, as always. The next six to twelve months will show whether Sonic can tap into its full potential and reclaim its place among the top projects in decentralised finance.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Tax Time with Stormrake & Syla

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 15:20:48 +1000

As we approach the end of the financial year, here’s a quick way to stay prepared for tax time.

Stormrake has partnered with Syla to provide a complete crypto tax report, fully tailored to Australian tax requirements. Whether you're lodging yourself or working with an accountant, Syla makes it simple to import your Stormrake transactions and calculate your crypto tax.

Stormrake exclusive offer:

Get 30% off any Syla plan with the code STORMTAX at checkout. Register here.

How to register an account on Syla

1. Visit Syla and click the Try Free button.

2. Sign up using your Google account or email and a password.

Importing your Activity Statement CSV

3. After signing up, you’ll be prompted to add a Data Source. In the search bar, type Stormrake and select it from the list.

4. Choose File Import and upload your Stormrake Activity Statement CSV.

Don’t have one? Reach out to your Broker at Stormrake to request your Statement.

Review and download your Crypto Tax Report

5. After importing, you’ll land on your Dashboard, where you can view a summary of your portfolio.

6. Do you have other wallets or exchanges? Head to the Data Sources page and click Add Data Source to connect them.

7. Go to the Transactions page to view your transactions. You can make edits if needed.

8. When you’re ready, head to the Tax Reports page to download your Crypto Tax Report. You’ll need to choose a paid plan before downloading.

9. Share your reportwith your Tax Accountant when preparing your tax return, or follow Syla’s guide for self-lodging your own tax return.

Need Help

Get support directly via live chat at Syla.

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Welcome to Moon Season (We’re so back)

Tue, 20 May 2025 15:43:43 +1000

After all of the Fear, uncertainty and doubt since the beginning of the year, those who saw what we saw and took the necessary action to add to their positions during such a prime market opportunity are being rewarded in spades as we speak! With full market-wide reversals back to the upside, we’re very glad to see that since the last article I wrote back at the beginning of April before the final sell-off and capitulation leg took place, we’ve not only hit our targeted support zones across BTC and other Major-alt coins, but we’re back on track regaining the previously lost local trend with extreme bullish momentum that is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Ultimately, this means that the broader market crash in response to global narratives we saw is now nothing but a blip on the radar as we continue the Bullrun. Trend wasn’t lost across any of the major assets, even looking over at US Indices; the S&P500 (yes – we keep a very close eye on this too) didn’t lose major trend support and completed a fairly textbook retest correction which is now being followed by a continuation to the upside, likely to All Time High prices again with feverous momentum – another great sign that the bottom is in. Even the Fear and Greed Index is pushing 70+ again, now in “Greed” territory, compared to when sentiment was down in the slumps in “Extreme Fear” around 15 just a mere 6 weeks ago. Make no mistake, that’s just how quickly things change in this space. Let’s take a look at where we think things are going from here, so we stay ahead of the curve once again as we melt-up into the retail euphoria phase that is to come.

Since our last article, we’ve seen the capitulation and market sell-off reaction that we predicted in response to Trump’s Tariffs. This has taken us to the zone of support which I outlined in the previous April article for a great deal of assets that we’ve been actively trading, the most notable one being Bitcoin of course. We got the final leg of the sell-off very quickly for BTC and for the broader market as a whole within days of publishing the article which gave the heads up to our clients that this was a high likelihood. As a result, it should’ve been no surprise too that we also landed into the strong support zone I outlined in that article, which consequently saw us bottom at precisely $74,434, of which we then started to move back up hard and fast with a “V-Shape” reversal pattern.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/EPRxOLse/

Not only did we start heading back up hard and fast, which is to be expected after a large emotional sell-off, but we also with haste started breaking through multiple local weekly resistance levels in order to solidify the notion that the bottom is well and truly in. These levels are derived from the previous trend resistance and landed us both $86,084 and $96,262, both of which price is holding well above now at a whopping $102,000 again (That didn’t take long!) All that’s left now is for BTC to keep up the momentum and crack the previous $109,356 High that we set in December, so that we can carry on melting up as we enter the later stages of this Crypto Bullrun.

With this being said, clearly Bitcoin has performed tremendously as the leading asset for the Crypto-space this cycle. Despite being in the later stages of the Bullrun, its strength this cycle cannot be underestimated; however, as we’ve detailed in previous articles, the dominance of Bitcoin has always reached a plateau each and every cycle where despite continuing to rise nominally in price, its strength relative to its altcoin counterparts starts to diminish as retail and now institutional investors will begin to hunt down those fundamentally sound and resilient projects that are somewhat undervalued in order to close out the maximum possible gains for their portfolios as prices start to get crazy from here.

Looking at BTC’s Dominance chart once again, we can see the channel of resistance we outlined earlier in the year to clients still holds true as the index appears to be topping precisely where we anticipated, and it couldn’t come at a more opportune time.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/BZ2q2inw/

At the start of May, once the recovery in nominal prices across the board started to pick up speed, we consequently saw BTC’s Dominance top-out around 65% which was the top of our predicted resistance zone. Since then, we’ve started to pullback and given that major altcoins individually remain bullish from here, this correction in BTC’s Dominance is likely to continue; therefore, meaning that Altcoins are gaining quicker in gains relative to Bitcoin. Again, this doesn’t mean that Bitcoin is going down in nominal prices, rather that altcoins are going up quicker and faster in % gains relative to BTC’s continued upwards growth. I suspect BTC Dominance will likely continue to fall from here for the remainder of this Crypto Bull run cycle, at least until shortly after the major altcoins top-out in their respective nominal dollar prices; of which then when the bear market eventually starts to set in, BTC will renormalize and re-absorb the majority of Cryptocurrency liquidity once again despite being in a bear market, just as it’s done historically in previous cycles. Let’s take a look at two of the Major altcoins now that we’ve been keeping a close eye on which we believe are likely to perform well from here on out over the coming months.

Ethereum took a beating with the rest of the market during the Trump Tariff scare which makes a lot of sense as FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) doesn’t discriminate when it takes hold and isn’t rooted in much logical reasoning. As a result, we saw ETH lose its previous support and double-bottoming structure, falling into another major trend support level at $1554 where it has since held firmly.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/BiQ2pPUB/

The good news is that despite what might appear as ugly price action at first, this has positioned ETH to be extremely undervalued whilst still retaining the #2 place in the Crypto pecking-order in terms of Market Cap this entire time. These types of “good deals” amongst major tokens are EXTREMELY rare and should not be ignored. This is why since the bottom has come in across the entire market, we’ve seen ETH not only reverse back up too, but we’ve seen it in fact outperform significantly compared to not only other major altcoins, but the entire market as a whole, pumping near a whopping 100% in just the last 5 weeks. This because “The harder they fall, the harder they pump” and the ETH/BTC chart echoes this sentiment as well, showing that it’s currently holding the long-term Macro Bottom from pre-covid, therefore meaning we likely will bottom out here again creating a very strong “Double-Bottom” support, further giving credence to the notion that ETH will continue to outperform BTC from here despite falling out of favor in the eyes of retail earlier this cycle.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/BWQmuWqW/

The fundamental narrative that’s shifting for ETH now which is helping support this shift in Price Action is that the Pectra Upgrade has gone live; simply meaning that ETH is finally starting to correct its scalability issues that created high gas fees and network congestion which has been plaguing users of the network for a number of years.

While it’s nice to see ETH finally catching a break, there’s another major Altcoin asset that had once previously fallen out of favor too, but this cycle has seen it truly come back with a vengeance, and we don’t have to look far down the market capitalization list to find it…

XRP, the token of Ripple I remember wasn’t even on people’s radar last cycle due to the now determined unsubstantial lawsuit filed by the SEC and the delistings that followed the suit. Since then, Ripple have reclaimed their deserved place in the top 3 pecking order of assets (not including Tether), their token; XRP has truly held up well this cycle, undoing any of the previous cycles poor performance and is well poised to take advantage of this cycle’s continued growth. From a Price Action standpoint, XRP is holding up much better than ETH as it didn’t lose structural trend despite falling a sizeable 52% from peak to trough from when we were predicting an imminent market pullback in December of last year.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/1Umm4GiG/

XRP held its uptrend on the weekly timeframe, unlike ETH; therefore, despite XRP falling to a low of $1.61 where we correctly targeted our support zone months prior, it shouldn’t prove too difficult to keep creeping up higher from here as there’s far less headwind in ways of resistance to stop continued price appreciation. Conversely, XRP has also been setting up two different yet very bullish patterns over the last few months, both a Bull flag and an Inverse Head and Shoulders. Similar to what we predicted BTC would do around $50K pre-US Elections, I wouldn’t be surprised to see XRP do something similar from here. Given its strong narrative and ETF-hype as a well-positioned American-based Cryptocurrency project with close ties to the Trump Administration, this one is looking finally ready for incoming All Time Highs for the first time since January of 2018.

Finally, there’s a combination of Bullish narratives hitting the market all at once since the market’s price recovery; between the beginnings of a deal for the China & USA trade war negotiations, a potential ceasefire for the Ukraine and Russia war, US CPI Inflation data coming in lower than forecast once again last week and of course Trump’s 90 Day pause on Tariffs, there’s no wonder prices are reflecting the bullish sentiment that we’re going higher from here. Even the S&P500 has done a textbook V-shape reversal off its major support at 4825, now back at near 6000 again; a very similar recovery to how the index pumped coming out of the March 2020 covid crash. It’s clear that the market’s perception of all these cascading narratives has shifted radically from “It’s over” to “We’re so back.” All of this is great for Cryptocurrency, and with the first glimpses of a late-stage alt season truly beginning, make sure you’re ahead of the curve with us at Stormrake and ready to seize the opportunity like many of our clients did in the last 6 weeks – because believe it or not, you’re still early.

Written by James Ryan

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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What Is a Digital Asset Prime Broker — And Why It Matters More Than Ever

Tue, 06 May 2025 15:09:22 +1000

Learn why prime brokerage is critical for serious digital asset investors. Discover how Stormrake delivers secure custody, deep execution, and full-service support.

Prime Brokerage for the New Financial Era

As digital assets mature into a globally recognised asset class, the infrastructure supporting them is evolving rapidly. Gone are the early days of clunky exchanges, questionable custody solutions, and DIY trading setups. Today’s serious investors demand more: security, execution, and professional service.

This is where digital asset prime brokers come in.

What Is a Digital Asset Prime Broker?

In the simplest terms, a digital asset prime broker is an all-in-one platform designed to support investors and institutions trading in crypto markets.

Much like traditional prime brokers in legacy finance, a digital asset prime broker provides access, execution, custody, reporting, and support—but with an architecture built natively for the 21st-century digital economy.

At Stormrake, we bridge traditional finance and the decentralised frontier. Our clients get a single, trusted point of contact to trade, manage, and secure their holdings in Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, and beyond.

Why Use a Prime Broker Instead of an Exchange?

Most investors begin their crypto journey with retail exchanges. And that’s perfectly fine—until it isn’t.

As portfolios grow and questions around tax reporting, secure custody, and slippage start surfacing, the cracks in retail platforms become apparent.

Exchanges are built for volume.

We’re built for investors.

The Stormrake Advantage

Trade Execution Without the Noise

We source liquidity from a deep global network of OTC desks and institutional counterparties. This means:

Tight pricing
No hidden spreads
No front-running or price manipulation

Your trade is confirmed at a fixed price before it’s settled. No surprises, no slippage, no fragmented order books.

Institutional-Grade Custody

If you’re managing meaningful capital—or investing via a trust, SMSF, or company—you need more than an app wallet.

Stormrake offers:

Secure custody with optional cold storage
Transparent, auditable reporting

Flexible options for self-custody (we’ll help you do it right)

Seamless Fiat On/Off Ramps

Move between AUD, USD, and crypto without drama. Whether you're funding via local transfers or sending a wire internationally, our fiat ramps are designed for speed, scale, and simplicity.

No daily limits
No hidden delays
Seamless deposit confirmations via phone call and email

White-Glove Brokerage

This isn’t a self-serve platform with bots and ticketing systems.

We offer direct access to a professional desk, so whether you prefer phone, SMS, or email, you can:

Place trades quickly
Receive confirmations instantly
Get tailored market insight if you want it

Real service. Real people. Real-time execution.

Full-Spectrum Reporting & Support

Crypto doesn’t have to be a nightmare at tax time.

Stormrake provides:

Detailed CSV reports
Historical performance summaries
Structured outputs for SMSFs, trusts, accountants, and audits

We turn complexity into clarity—especially when it matters most.

Who We Work With

Stormrake services a wide range of clients, including:

Private investors building long-term BTC positions
High-net-worth individuals and family offices
Self-managed super funds (SMSFs), trusts, and company accounts
Fund managers and active traders
First-time crypto buyers who want to do it right

Whether you’re allocating $5,000 or $5 million, we bring the same level of professionalism, discretion, and precision.

Why It Matters Now More Than Ever

We’re living through a shift in the financial paradigm. With fiat currencies steadily debased and trust in traditional banks fraying, digital assets—particularly Bitcoin—are emerging as the hedge of choice against systemic risk.

But the opportunity comes with risk. The market has never been louder, more confusing, or more saturated with misinformation.

A prime broker protects more than your capital—we give you the confidence, structure, and clarity to navigate this new financial era with purpose.

Final Word

At Stormrake, we’re redefining what it means to be a digital asset broker. We combine the old-school values of service and trust with the technical infrastructure of today’s markets.

If you’re ready to level up your crypto journey—or begin it with the right framework—we’re here.

Stormrake is where professionalism meets performance in the digital age.

Written by Bisher Khudeira

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

Buy when there’s Blood in the Streets

Wed, 02 Apr 2025 14:33:07 +1100

Between the deluge of sensational narratives, extreme retail sentiment swings, and the overall uncertainty of how Trump’s macro-economic policies will affect the US and global markets as a whole, it’s no surprise everyone has their own theories of where things are going from here. One thing is certain though, history may never repeat; but it sure does rhyme. The great and illustrious Warren Buffett once said: “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” The difference between those that survive multiple cycles and those that chop up their gains in this game are the ones who look at the bigger picture, seeing where we were before and where we’re going from here. As are many things in life, consistency is key, and if nothing’s changed – we keep stacking. Despite our BTC price pullback of 30% and our predicted mid-cycle highs at $102K, if we look back historically, we can see that we’re well within historical tolerances for a BTC retracement. Such optimal buying opportunities are generally rare in the later stages of a bull run and we don’t plan on letting it slip away from us! Let’s take a look at how this mid-cycle correction stacks up over Bitcoin’s 15-year history as an asset class.

We can see in the last two cycles where Bitcoin started to reach the mainstream, during the early stages of its maturity Bitcoin has always taken the opportunity in its later stages of a bull run to have a sizeable correction before creating what’s known as a “blow-off top,” going on to print eye-watering all-time high prices before eventually topping out. Back in 2017, this happened in September of that year giving us a whopping -40% correction before then going on to gain a blistering +560% gain in just the following three months.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/QtmXYQPP/

Being someone who was buying hand-over-fist as a bullish market participant back then too, watching this all unfold; those bears who sold their bags too early were absolutely livid to say the least. It was the “China-Ban” narrative back then which caused the sell-off, of which might’ve sounded daunting to newbies at the time, but it ultimately didn’t change anything in the long run for ever-growing demand to acquire BTC globally. Ironically, similar FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) surrounding China creeps into every market cycle. Historically, those who’ve bought these dips have always done well. I suspect the current rhetoric in relation to Trump’s Trade War with China will fare no differently as BTC demand is largely very correlated to the exponential expansion of currency circulation globally, in turn creating a perpetual risk-on environment where BTC thrives in the long run. Bitcoin was created as a remedy for reckless currency expansion and as much as the market is hanging out for further rate cuts from the US FED and here locally by our own RBA, the stark reality is that while this makes the cost-of-living more affordable in the short-to-medium term, lowering rates is a sure way to devalue your local currency further, and this devaluation is exactly what makes Bitcoin and other risk-on assets extremely bullish long term.

Going back to the bull cycle in 2021, during the month of April the markets were at a point where they had been climbing aggressively for 6 months straight, so much so that we got retail euphoria almost too quickly which led to an overabundance of retail leverage trading which in turn created an inevitable yet brutal correction seeing BTC declining a staggering -55% in just three months. When the market eventually recovered after this correction in the following months, although it printed a marginally higher-high and all-time high of $69,000, unfortunately the momentum had mostly already been lost as retail had less new capital to enter the markets after the huge liquidation surge and ultimately new capital was scared away as the macro-economic narrative also started to shift towards a rising interest rate environment in the later part of the year.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q2vPFVCC/

This was the nail in the coffin for risk-on and speculative assets such as cryptocurrency and is the primary reason why the 2022 bear market followed swiftly thereafter. With this being said however, it’s clear that in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles, when the inevitable mid-cycle correction came in, once averaged out, both had average corrections of approximately 47.5%, of which new all-time highs still were printed that cycle within the following months before the new top was in. This current cycle correction has seen us pull back so far only a mere 30% from $109,358 down to $76,555; therefore, we’re well within expected tolerances for a mid-cycle correction. It’s still possible with the uncertainty in the market currently that we might want to make another local lower-low. If this is the case, we’re looking at headhunting a retest from the breakout of the previous highs. This would land us around $72K, which also coincides with a very juicy 0.618% Fibonacci retracement.

A clearer view of the chart can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/fQsoA5rf/

If prices go here however, we will need to see a significant bounce because any further short-term bearishness at this stage will make us lose trend on higher timeframes and consequently force us into a bear market cycle. In the end, these types of “must hold” supports end up serving as great opportunities to see some quick gains as a large bounce from here is likely, given its high importance to hold.

Ultimately, this means our projections for a continued bull run in the coming months remain unchanged and serve to prove the age-old adage that if history rhymes yet again, that any buying here would be highly opportunistic and may make for some excellent and potential fast gains for risk-tolerant traders given the advantage of prices having had come down to these levels across the board first before moving higher. Given that these sell-offs are generally emotional and sentiment-driven, funnily enough we can chart this too with something known as the “Fear & Greed Index” which is also publicly available and provided by coinmarketcap.com.

This is an excellent tool we can use in order to gauge retail sentiment for the crypto market as a whole, giving us a clear indication based on order book volumes and buying/selling metrics on-chain to determine if crypto may be either overbought or oversold at any point in time. This index gets updated daily and we’ve used it with a high degree of accuracy in conjunction with technical and macro-economic analysis to predict market tops, bottoms, and even mid-cycle corrections in between, the latter of which we’ve been experiencing post-Trump victory rally.

Inexperienced retail traders tend to buy into the hype narratives, usually when everyone has found out about "x" opportunity, at this stage everyone is convinced it’s a sure bet and everyone’s already bought. Therefore, all that’s left is for sellers to come in and take profits. This is how a market top forms; because at a certain point you reach peak-market saturation where the only people filling the order books are sellers, whereas the buyers that haven’t got much capital left to keep adding to their positions quickly get overwhelmed and price spills back over to the downside. The opposite can be said for bear markets and mid-cycle corrections. When all the "paper hands" in the market have been shaken out due to uncertainty surrounding macro-economic narratives, fear, and doubt, all that’s left is for buyers to swoop in, scoop up all the good deals, and very quickly the few sellers that remain are overwhelmed by the enormous buying power and prices reverse back to the upside.

This index is rated on a scale between 1-100; and as you can see the last time the index went well into the "Fear" territory, it was back in August of 2024 right at the bottom where I was also predicting our BTC bull flag where price eventually tagged $50K USD, and quickly got bought up and pumping massively thereafter in the lead up to Trump winning the US Elections. At the bottom in August, the index reached a low of 26. If we take a look over at the current mid-cycle correction that I predicted would happen eventually once BTC hit $102K, you can see the healthy correction that we’ve since had has led us to a low on the Fear & Greed index conversely at similar levels, in fact we reached a low of 15 on the index right on March 11th just a few weeks ago. If history is to repeat, once you reach these "Extreme Fear" levels where we are now, it’s not too far-fetched to think that the opportunity for many becomes too tempting, usually followed by prices quickly reversing back to the upside. I suspect this is what we’ll see again now, given that nothing has changed in terms of the fundamentals for BTC and the macro-economic landscape still remains bullish market-wide.

In the words of the great Warren Buffett “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.” This couldn’t ring truer with where the market is at right now. Currently at these Extreme Fear levels, we’re at a pivotal point in the market where if the macro-economic conditions remain in favor of risk-on assets just as we’ve seen them be after every uncertain market correction, well; these entries here will be talked about with a lot of reverence one day. If nothing’s changed, our strategy remains so too. Keep stacking, keep learning and growing, because if history taught us anything, it’s that a lowering of interest rates and global currency debasement doesn’t solve itself overnight with a few tariffs. The long-term direction of the economy and broader markets are crystal clear, just like how we believe Bitcoin and other fundamentally sound cryptocurrency projects will have clear skies ahead, along with new all-time high prices to come with.

Written by James Ryan

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Australia’s 2025–26 Federal Budget: Strengthening the Case for Bitcoin in SMSFs

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 15:40:09 +1100

The Australian government’s latest budget signals a deepening shift in how private wealth—particularly superannuation—is managed and taxed. For investors, this is more than just a policy update; it is a clear warning that long-term financial autonomy is increasingly at risk.

Superannuation: From Retirement Security to Government Revenue Source

Australia’s superannuation system was introduced on 1 July 1992, with the intention of providing workers with a stable, long-term retirement savings framework. However, despite early assurances that superannuation would remain untouched by political interference, successive governments have repeatedly altered its rules. One of the most significant overhauls came in 2006/2007, when the Tax Laws Amendment (Simplified Superannuation) Bill introduced tax-free withdrawals for retirees over 60. At the time, then-Treasurer Peter Costello framed these reforms as creating a system that should not be continually adjusted, warning that constant changes would erode confidence.

Yet, in the years since, governments from both sides of politics have continued to modify tax settings, contribution limits, and access conditions, often using superannuation as a fiscal lever rather than a protected retirement asset. The 2025–26 Federal Budget follows this familiar pattern, underscoring the reality that superannuation is no longer immune from political and economic pressures—reinforcing the need for greater individual control.

Superannuation as a Budget Lever

The 2025–26 Federal Budget reinforces a trend that has been developing for years: superannuation is no longer just a retirement savings vehicle—it is now a key instrument of government fiscal policy. The Treasury has revised its forecast for super tax receipts up by $2.4 billion for 2025–26 and by $9.7 billion over five years, confirming that the government is increasingly reliant on super contributions and taxation to balance the books.

This reliance raises significant concerns about future policy direction. The possibility of taxing unrealised gains on large super balances remains on the table, a move that could force fund members to pay tax on paper profits even if assets have not been sold. Such a policy would introduce liquidity challenges, distort portfolio construction, and increase uncertainty around long-term financial planning.

In this evolving landscape, control over superannuation investments is becoming a strategic advantage. Investors who seek greater autonomy are increasingly looking beyond pooled industry and retail super funds, where policy decisions are outside their control, and towards self-managed super funds (SMSFs), where they can directly allocate capital into assets that align with their long-term vision of wealth preservation.

The Aussie Dollar's Structural Weakness and the Shift to Harder Assets

While the budget surplus may provide temporary stability for the Australian dollar, the underlying macroeconomic picture remains fragile. The AUD’s long-term value remains dependent on external factors, including commodity demand from China and broader USD liquidity conditions.

Domestically, the government’s approach to fiscal policy suggests that purchasing power erosion is likely to continue. While tax cuts and rebates offer short-term relief, they do not address the fundamental challenges of persistent inflation, energy insecurity, and structural weaknesses in key industries. As inflation continues to eat into real savings, investors are increasingly looking for hard assets that sit outside traditional monetary policy frameworks.

Bitcoin’s finite supply and resistance to centralised intervention make it an attractive hedge against currency depreciation. Within an SMSF, Bitcoin offers exposure to an asset that cannot be debased by policy decisions or inflationary fiscal management.

Bitcoin in an SMSF: A Path to Self-Sovereignty

Bitcoin’s role within an SMSF is not just about investment returns—it is about enhancing financial sovereignty. With the government demonstrating a willingness to adjust superannuation rules to meet fiscal objectives, retaining direct control over asset selection and portfolio strategy is becoming increasingly important.

Holding Bitcoin in an SMSF allows investors to:

Maintain autonomy over their retirement savings, rather than being subject to pooled fund management decisions.
Diversify away from traditional financial system risks, reducing exposure to AUD volatility and regulatory shifts.
Own an asset that is scarce, decentralised, and resistant to government intervention, providing an alternative to traditional wealth storage methods.
While Bitcoin held within an SMSF remains subject to the same regulatory and taxation rules as other superannuation investments, its fundamental attributes as a sovereign-grade asset make it a compelling option for those looking to preserve wealth in an era of policy uncertainty.

The Case for SMSFs in a Changing Superannuation Landscape

With superannuation becoming a major fiscal tool, passive reliance on industry super funds is becoming an increasingly risky proposition. Pooled funds are subject to changing regulatory frameworks, and investors have little say over how their capital is allocated.

An SMSF provides the flexibility to make independent asset allocation decisions, ensuring that investment strategies are aligned with personal financial goals rather than government policy shifts.

For those seeking greater control over their super, Bitcoin represents a natural addition to an SMSF portfolio. Unlike traditional financial assets, it operates outside the influence of central banks and government intervention, offering a store of value that remains independent of fiscal policy changes.

Final Takeaway: Bitcoin and the Future of Superannuation

The 2025–26 budget reinforces a key theme: the government is increasingly using superannuation as a tool to manage its own financial position, rather than solely as a mechanism for individual retirement savings. This shift underscores the importance of self-directed financial strategies.

Bitcoin, particularly when held within an SMSF, provides a pathway to enhanced financial sovereignty. While it remains within the superannuation regulatory framework, its decentralised nature, fixed supply, and resistance to external control make it a compelling asset for those looking to future-proof their wealth against fiscal overreach and currency devaluation.

The ability to control one’s own financial destiny is becoming an ever more valuable asset. In this environment, Bitcoin within an SMSF is an increasingly strategic choice for those looking to maintain autonomy over their long-term savings.

Written by Bisher Khudeira

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.