Stormrake - Insights #Trump tariff pause

Bitcoin Stalls as Trade War Pressures Mount on Nvidia

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 11:02:22 +1000

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Another slow day for Bitcoin, slipping approximately 1%, with Ethereum and Solana both down 2%. BTC tested the upper range discussed yesterday but couldn’t sustain a break above $86K, and has since been knocked back. Meanwhile, tariff headlines continue to weigh on traditional markets.

Despite the 90-day pause, little meaningful progress has been made between the US and European Union. Brussels expects tariffs to remain in place, as talks remain stalled with no clear breakthrough in sight.

Nvidia: The Trade War’s Favourite Target

The biggest casualty of the ongoing US-China trade skirmish remains Nvidia. Just hours after the White House suggested Trump was open to resuming trade talks with China, he moved to ban Nvidia’s H20 chips from being sold to the region. These chips were projected to contribute roughly 10.9% of Nvidia’s revenue. Following the ban, that figure is expected to fall nearly in half to just 5.9%.

In after-hours trading, Nvidia dropped nearly 7%. What’s more suspicious is that just hours before the announcement, there was an $8 million surge in put volumes on the Nasdaq 100 ETF. As expected, it dropped sharply following the news—shedding 300 points. This kind of pattern has become familiar during Trump’s presidency, with tariff shocks seemingly pre-empted by insider traders capitalising ahead of time. It’s a glaring red flag for market integrity—but in today’s regulatory landscape, it appears to be legal.

All Eyes on Powell

Jerome Powell is set to speak tomorrow morning, and markets will be watching closely—not just for any monetary guidance, but also for his reaction to the ongoing tariff flip-flops. The crypto market has been range-bound since late last week, and the tone Powell strikes could finally provide the volatility needed to push Bitcoin out of this rut.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.08)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/jYd2hFm3/

A relatively quiet day for XRP, down less than 2%. It looks like XRP has confirmed a higher high on the chart. The current pullback must hold above the recent low at $1.72 to maintain the bullish structure. Fortunately, XRP has major support above that level, with both 200-day moving averages and the broader range floor in play. A higher low here would reinforce the bullish case, though momentum still sits with the bears for now.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/GZXlgVlh/

We highlighted Bitcoin’s CPR range in yesterday’s note, and after failing to break above $85,800, BTC has printed nine red hourly candles in the last eleven. The breakdown below the lower CPR level at $83.6K signals that bears have recaptured short-term momentum. This opens up the possibility of a return to the next key support at $81.6K.

Still, bulls have two critical lifelines—the 200 EMA and 200 SMA—just above that level, offering strong potential for a bounce.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 15 April: $ + 38.2 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin Ranges, Gold Rallies, USD Sees Worst Start in 30 Years

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 12:11:32 +1000

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A slow day for Bitcoin over the last 24 hours, with price deviating less than 1% from its open. The majors followed suit—Ethereum edged up 1.5%, while SOL and XRP posted gains of under 1%. Attention, however, was firmly centred on OM—and for good reason.

In traditional finance, most US equities opened stronger than Friday’s close but ultimately finished in the red. The S&P 500 marked another losing session, though it still sits higher than its Friday close—same story for the Nasdaq. Meanwhile, gold broke above $3,200 per ounce for the first time in history. It's now up 22% year-to-date, while most other assets remain in the red—including the DXY, which has fallen 8% since January. That marks its worst start to a year since 1995.

Trump’s strategy appears to be taking shape: devalue the dollar to boost US global competitiveness. But the trade-off is a pullback in risk-on assets, even as gold rallies in response.

In a notable development, Nvidia has announced it will manufacture AI supercomputers domestically for the first time ever. A major milestone—and a move aligned with Trump’s tariff playbook, aimed at reshoring high-value manufacturing.

OM Collapse: Red Flags Ignored

More details are emerging around the OM collapse, and with hindsight, the red flags were hard to miss.

The primary catalyst was suspicious wallet activity and the team’s overwhelming control of the token’s supply—90% of total supply was in the hands of the MANTRA team (defeats the purpose of decentralisation). That’s a glaring red flag, but it was seemingly overlooked in the rush to ride the hot real world asset narrative.

A wallet linked to MANTRA transferred 3.9 million $OM tokens to OKX, triggering immediate concerns. With the team holding near-total control of the supply, market manipulation became a legitimate fear. Rumours of over-the-counter (OTC) sales at discounts of up to 50% further eroded trust, hinting that insiders were offloading tokens at the expense of retail holders.

The fallout was swift. Panic selling set in, triggering a cascade of stop-losses and leveraged liquidations. Over $6 billion in market value was wiped out in just 30 minutes.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.12)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/rIDCUkIz/

Like Bitcoin, XRP had a relatively flat session, gaining less than 1%. But the lack of movement shouldn’t be seen as bearish—in fact, it’s quite the opposite. If XRP can continue building a base above the 21EMA (yellow line), it sets the stage for a potential breakout to the upside.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/XGOj3VCM/

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, moving between the CPR level of $83.6K and resistance at $85.8K. This range-bound price action is structurally bullish, as it signals continuation. A breakout above $85.8K could fuel a move toward $90K, while a breakdown may see Bitcoin retest the low $80K region.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 14 April: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Macro Fuels Bitcoin Push While Altcoin Fragility is Exposed

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 12:05:20 +1000

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Since our last update, it’s been a whirlwind few days in crypto. Bitcoin surged to $86K following a key policy shift from the Trump administration, and this morning saw the dramatic collapse of a top 20 crypto project.

Tariff Rollbacks Fuel Risk-On Rally

Saturday night's rally was driven by news that the US will grant tariff exemptions on smartphones, computers, and chip-makers—a significant rollback from Trump’s previously hardline stance. Before these exemptions, the projected price of an iPhone was expected to soar to around $3,500 USD, up from $1,000 USD, a staggering increase that would’ve hit consumers directly. This illustrates how deeply such tariffs impact everyday goods, especially as domestic production costs in the US remain far higher than imports from Asia.

While this rollback gave risk-on assets a boost, the broader picture remains murky. The continued policy flip-flopping adds further noise to an already convoluted macroeconomic backdrop. Today it’s bullish, but the next tariff headline could just as easily unwind the gains.

OM Collapses—RWA Sector Shaken

Not all headlines have been positive. Mantra (OM)—ranked as the 19th largest crypto project and the leading Real World Asset (RWA) protocol—collapsed overnight. At midnight, OM was trading at $6.50, with a market cap near $6 billion. By midday, it had plummeted to $1.00, slashing its market cap to $1 billion. A staggering 90% drop in less than 12 hours.

Panic has taken hold, with investors scrambling for answers. Rumours are swirling, but nothing concrete has emerged yet. In OM’s absence, Ondo now claims the top spot as the leading RWA protocol. It’s a brutal reminder of the immaturity still prevalent in the altcoin market, and the inherent risks in deviating from Bitcoin.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.14)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/RCUoshyO/

XRP has begun to reclaim its bullish structure, printing a higher high. If it can now form a higher low above $1.72, that structure will be confirmed. It’s currently holding above the 21EMA—a positive sign. If bulls maintain control, we could see XRP push towards the mid-range level at $2.40 in the sessions ahead.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bs0fJa8z/

Bitcoin remains in bullish structure with strong momentum. It briefly pierced the key resistance at $85.2K before pulling back to test the 55EMA, which held firm. BTC has since bounced, once again challenging this critical level. For the uptrend to continue, a confirmed break above $85.2K is essential. Failure to do so could open the door for the bears to return.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 13 April: $ (data not available at the time of writing)

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Bitcoin sentiment strengthens as bulls return

Sat, 12 Apr 2025 17:34:15 +1000

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Bitcoin sentiment continues to build as price action remains bullish, climbing back above $83K. The Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin has now risen to 43, quickly approaching the neutral zone—further evidence that bearish momentum is fading. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s own Fear & Greed reading has slipped from 17 to 13 despite the index rising 1.81% overnight. With BTC reclaiming ground, bears are steadily losing their grip on market control.

While the tariff headlines have quietened, tensions between China and the US persist. Overnight, China escalated the situation, raising tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125%.

The US 10-year Treasury yield has rallied once more, now sitting at 4.5%, prompting a response from the Federal Reserve, which is reportedly "absolutely" prepared to intervene to stabilise the market, per the Financial Times.

We're potentially witnessing a shift in policy drivers, with the US10Y becoming a central force.

Some believe the recent bond yield spike may have influenced Trump’s decision to delay new tariffs. There are also murmurs that the Fed could act earlier than expected, and rumours are circulating about Trump potentially scheduling a call with Chinese President Xi to address the tariff war. Still, Trump maintains that "the bond market did not drive his decision to delay reciprocal tariffs by 90 days."

Looking ahead, the next interest rate decision arrives in early May. While markets initially priced in the first cut of the year, expectations have cooled. There’s now a 60.2% probability of no change, and just a 39.8% chance of a 25 bps cut.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.01)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/lKWOQt7R/

XRP successfully reclaimed its broader range yesterday, closing back above $1.98. Not only did price reclaim key territory, it also moved above both the 200-day SMA and EMA—an encouraging sign for bulls.

That said, bears still maintain structural control. For the bulls to flip the trend, XRP must push past the recent high of $2.18 to establish a clear higher high.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/3Z7P1tyu/

Bitcoin rallied nearly 5% yesterday, testing CPR resistance once again at $83.6K. While BTC was previously rejected at this level, bulls now appear firmly in control, with both momentum and market structure favouring the upside.

The 21EMA is expected to act as immediate support, with the next key target sitting at $85.2K. Bulls remain in charge as long as any pullback holds above $81.6K—a level supported by the 55EMA, both 200-day moving averages, and a broader trendline.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 11 April: $ - 1.0 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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Inflation Falls, But Tariffs Keep Pressure On

Sat, 12 Apr 2025 17:25:54 +1000

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Markets saw a modest pullback overnight as investors began to realise that the 90-day tariff pause hasn’t halted the broader trade war. The announcement appears increasingly like a classic bull trap, with tariffs not only remaining intact—but intensifying.

Here’s where things currently stand:

10% baseline tariffs on all countries global
25% on automobile imports to the US
25% on on steel and aluminum
25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico
145% tariffs on Chinese imports

Overnight, tariffs on Chinese imports were ramped up further, now sitting at an eye-watering 145%. President Trump also stated he’s considering delisting Chinese companies from US exchanges—adding another layer of geopolitical risk to an already fragile environment.

Despite the dip, markets remain higher than earlier in the week. The S&P 500 fell 3.5%, Bitcoin dropped 3.7%, slipping back below $80K, while gold rallied to yet another all-time high, trading above $3,200 USD/oz.

Markets Shrug Off Soft CPI Data

Adding to the mix was the release of inflation data—typically a market-moving event. However, markets barely flinched at a bullish CPI print. For the second consecutive month, inflation came in below expectations:

Core CPI MoM: Forecast 0.3%, Actual 0.1%
Headline CPI MoM: Forecast 0.1%, Actual -0.1%
Headline CPI YoY: Forecast 2.5%, Actual 2.4%

This is usually bullish for risk assets, yet markets remained flat or down. The lack of response shows the market’s current tunnel vision—tariffs are the dominant narrative, and even strong macro tailwinds are being ignored.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($1.98)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/XPAGAZIL/

XRP has reclaimed the lower boundary of its long-standing range after bouncing off a key support zone. Up 24% from its recent low at $1.61, the momentum and structure still favour the bears. However, a daily close above $1.98 would be the first sign of bullish recovery. Keep it on the radar.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/bxDifY9z/

Bitcoin was rejected from $81.6K at the CPR level and is now trading below all major moving averages. The 21 and 55 EMAs are also on the verge of flipping—if they do, momentum shifts firmly back into bearish control.

However, if BTC can form a higher low above $75.7K, the structure flips back in favour of the bulls. Until then, we remain in a vulnerable zone.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 April: $ - 149.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

Disclaimer

90-Day Tariff Pause Sparks Historic Market Rally

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 11:50:35 +1000

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To add more fuel to the confusion regarding Trump’s ‘plan’ and ‘vision’, he’s just announced a 90-day pause on tariffs — this comes one week after the reciprocal tariffs went live…

But the markets don’t care about any confusion this adds — green everywhere. The S&P 500 up 9.51%, Dow Jones up 7.87%, Nasdaq up 13.66%, Gold up 3.38%, and of course Bitcoin, up 8.27% with some altcoins up 20%. The DJI experienced its first 3,000-point single-day increase, Nasdaq posted its second-largest day in history, Japan’s stock market rallied 10% on open, and the volatility index (VIX) fell by 35% today. Recession odds have also dropped, with Polymarket showing a 49% chance after sitting at 66% yesterday.

Now does this mean the tariff pause will relieve markets of some volatility and reduce the uncertainty within? Potentially. Fear and Greed readings for both traditional markets and Bitcoin have jumped — S&P 500 up 13 points to 17 but still in extreme fear, and Bitcoin up 21 points from 18 to 39, moving from extreme fear to regular fear.

This tariff pause came only hours after Trump posted on Truth Social saying ‘THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT’. We also saw traders open SPY, QQQ, and TQQQ call options expiring the same day — right before the pause was announced. Within the hour, those calls were up 2,100%... a clear sign of insider trading?

Now this isn’t the first time we’ve seen a tariff pause. Back at the start of February, when the US set tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China — a day later Canada hit back with the same. The US responded with a 30-day pause and markets rallied off the back of it. Bitcoin went from $91k to $101k during that stretch, but once the pause ended, BTC was back to $86k.

Currently we’ve seen Bitcoin rally from $74k to $83.5k on the news, Ethereum and Solana up 13%, Sui and XRP up 15%, and ONDO leading with 20%. Some great relief from recent bearish price action.

Now there’s still a long way to go before tariffs resume. In that time, expect more tariff headlines, potential negotiations, rate decisions, and inflation data. Until then, no one knows what the market will do — unless you’ve got a crystal ball.

Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($1.79)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/fGwZ7Pto/

The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) saw serious movement this past week — starting around 4.20% on April 2, then dropping to a low of 3.87% by April 4 amid a bond rally and safe-haven demand. This initial move lower helped ease borrowing costs and supported risk-on sentiment, even as recession fears lingered. But yields then surged to 4.55% by April 9 after Trump’s tariff escalation on China, raising inflation risks and hitting risk assets.

After today’s pause, which reset most tariffs to 10% for 90 days, yields dropped back to 4.277% over the last 24 hours — a 23 basis point (-5.23%) decline from the peak. This pullback reflects reduced uncertainty, sparking a broad-based risk-on rally as capital rotated out of bonds and back into equities and crypto.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/cOAaoK4o/

Bitcoin has rallied back above $82k following the tariff pause. This move has flipped momentum back in favour of the bulls and the structure looks to be turning — with a higher high now in place. As long as we see a higher low next, bulls will regain structural control.

BTC reached the CPR and was rejected at $83.5k — this is the immediate resistance. Key support now sits at $81.6k — the main bounce level for BTC to continue higher.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 9 April: $ - 37.5 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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No Advice Warning

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.