A 30-Day Ceasefire in Ukraine—Relief Rally or Bear Trap?

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 15:31:24 +1100

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Donald Trump vowed to end the conflict in Eastern Europe on day one of his presidency—an obvious hyperbole—but expectations remained that he would resolve it far more efficiently than the Biden administration. Overnight, news emerged that Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, coinciding with the U.S. preparing to lift its military aid restrictions on the country.

This development follows last week’s highly publicized meeting between Trump, JD Vance, and Volodymyr Zelensky, which reportedly turned into a heated exchange. After the fallout, the U.S. pulled military aid from Ukraine, prompting concerns across Europe about a prolonged war—fueling a rally in EU defense stocks. However, a minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine was soon signed, signaling potential progress.

Bitcoin Reacts as Ceasefire Boosts Markets

Since the ceasefire announcement, Bitcoin has surged nearly 5%, climbing from $79K to $83K. If Vladimir Putin agrees to the ceasefire as well, it could serve as the macro catalyst markets need for a broader turnaround. However, this may be only a short-term relief rally—the real question is: what happens when the 30-day ceasefire expires?

Despite this temporary surge, the bearish grip on markets remains firm, and broader economic uncertainty suggests any rally may be short-lived. We’re not out of the woods yet.

CPI Data Incoming: Will It Spark More Volatility?

Tonight, fresh CPI data is set to drop, with expectations pointing to declines across all three readings—a potentially bullish sign. The data release at 11:30 PM AEST is likely to inject volatility into the market, possibly providing Bitcoin the boost it needs to break out of its bearish structure.

This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who followed my advice have reaped massive gains.

Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/6wntRlk5/

Sonic is currently holding above the bullish order block, a key level to sustain a higher low. If Bitcoin builds on its recent momentum, this could signal a retest of its recent highs—a positive setup for Sonic.

BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/qtUudBuD/

Bitcoin initially looked set to drop lower after rejecting the $81.7K level and the 55 EMA, falling to a low of $79K. However, the ceasefire news reversed momentum, pushing BTC to $83K.

Notably, the 21 EMA and 55 EMA are nearing a bullish crossover—the first since March 5. However, signs of bearish divergence suggest that BTC may face another pullback, reinforcing a lower high scenario.

BTC Total ETF Flows for 11 Mar: $ - 219.7 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:

Source:https://www.tradingview.com/x/JD9E55MC/

Ethereum bounced from a key support level yesterday but was rejected at the 55 EMA following the ceasefire-driven rally. ETH remains weak, underperforming Bitcoin, and still looks bearish.

ETH Total ETF Flows for 11 Mar: $ - 9.8 million

(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)

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*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*

Written by Alexandar Artis

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Stormrake - Insights #Ukraine Ceasefire